Oh Russia has a big population and massive soviet era stockpiles and a big military industrial complex. If only we knew this 2 years ago we might have been able to come out with different analysis....ahhh wait
Problem with Western analysts is their pessimism about Russia, and that's why they always get it wrong. From running out of stock to on stock in less than one year. Or maybe the analysts just just don't know anything about Russia. Too much generalisation. For instance, they talk about NK stockpiles yet they don't have any figures about how much NK has, how much it has sent, and how much it can produce. Same to Iran anything they talk about.
North Korea will not exactly be forthcoming with Western analysts about the level of military stockpiles they hold . Open source intel can only take you so far. However Western analysts are adept at taking available data and creating an analytical snapshot of current Russian supply and logistics. Repeated snapshots help build a larger, more detailed view of Russian miliary stocks. The fact that Western analysts have observed transfers of North Korean ammunition stocks to Russia is an indicator that Russia is having issues with their own ammunition manufacturing.
@@csis Getting more from other suppliers doesn't necessarily mean running out of stock. It may mean expanding variety. For instance, Iranian kamikaze drones are cheaper and have longer range than Russian made Lancet. However, not so good with moving targets. Imports may be filling a gap for tactical advantage. NK ballistic missiles could supplement Islander missiles, allowing Russia to use Islander for more strategic targets. Use of glide bombs, don't take it that Russia is out of missiles. It is simply utilizing available and cheaper options. After all, it's a long war. Learning and adjusting is the game.
@@fabianabongo6284 You’re more of a better analyst and critical thinker than most of our so called Western Think Tanks. They’re always 6 months to 1 year late coming to a conclusion that everyone else saw coming smh
@@francotheafrican7550 that´s the result of placing snob privileged kids with ivy leagues degrees in places of strategic policy-making positions. They never set a foot on a battlefield, but they wrote an essay for their PhD on "the russian threat" or "how NK is set to take over the world". Then daddy´s old friend a classmate, both working in some lobbying firm help them get that essay through all the DC beaurocracy and then BINGO... Anthony Blinken makes it to Sec of State and Victoria Nuland Nat Sec advisor.
The prediction counts less than the arguments and evidence. After all, Putin predicted he could take Ukraine in two weeks. And the russian media claimed Russia could take Ukraine in three days. And many are still claiming it's impossible for Russia to lose this war. Don't rely on other people's prediction, just gather evidence and make up your own mind instead of sheeplishly following someone's word as a credo.
Russia was definitely never "Out of stock" of any military equipment, since the Ukrainian conflict started back in 2014 After the invasion in 2022 They had some shortages but nothing to the degree Ukraine persistently has. In August 2022, Russia was however low on Soldiers, due to having to withdraw 100k of their Conscripts, and therefore they declared a mobilization of 300k on 21 September 2022. Since then they have had another 305k (and still growing) of volunteers. Russia now has no shortage in Soldiers or Weapons, unlike Ukraine and the West. The current war of attraction favours Russia.
A few elements: - The russian side of the war claimed firing 60,000 shells per day in 2022. Now they claim firing 10,000 shells per day. - 80% of the tanks Russia produces are refurbished from the soviet legacy stocks which are slowly but surely running dry. The actual production of new equipment remains very low compared to the losses in Putin's war. - The western production of 155mm shells went from 0.5 million per year in 2022 to more than 2 million per year by the end of 2024 and still increasing. - The cost of the war for Russia is already close to 10% of GDP and will have to increase drastically if they intend to keep up production after the soviet legacy stocks are empty. For the western countries (who are the one paying on the ukrainian side), it's less than 1% of GDP. - The russian civilian economy is supported by huge expenses from the state which rely on a reserve of funds that is also getting depleted. Already the Kremlin has been and is continuing to increase taxes all over the board and the russian central bank is sending a lot of alarmed signals that the short term measures won't suffice anymore. "Russia now has no shortage in Soldiers or Weapons, unlike Ukraine and the West." Evidence shows it won't last. Russia could maintain the supply of weapons and ammo if they make the great economic sacrifices required, but it's clear Ukraine and the West are on a path of plentiful supplies of weaponry and ammo for, at the end of the day, compared to their overall economies, a tenth of the cost, so way more sustainable. "The current war of attraction favours Russia." Thinking that would be as grave if not a worse calculation than the belief Putin had that he could take over Ukraine in two weeks if he wanted. Russia is running out of time (they will never just "not have weapon or ammo anymore", but they will lose all the advantages they are currently holding), the cracks are already showing and it can get way, way worse for them while things are just getting better and better for the ukrainians (more money, more weapons and ammo of ever greater quality).
@@vilandar At the same time, they are accused of having enough missiles to waist on blowing up a school in Kyiv. Just in time to be a talking point at the 75 NATO summit. Russia has gone out of it's way not to escalate this conflict and that is why they have shown restraint, in the face of the NATO escalation, so they are slowly ramping up to going full hog. They are now stepping up as NATO goes ahead with their brinkmanship. Over and over Russia has tried to have a fair negotiated settlement but as with Boris Johnson stepping in and blocking the first negotiations after the invasion, the West keeps on escalating. At every step (except when Russia was short of manpower and as opposed to equipment, in August to September 2022) Russia has out done Ukraine / NATO in taking it to the next level in response to the escalation from the West. In the winter on 2023 Ukraine had significant electricity shortages. In the winter of 2024 Ukraine will have a desperate electricity shortage. In 2022 Russia sent over about 1000 missiles In 2023 Russia sent over 2000 missiles. In 2024 Russia will have sent over 4000 missiles. In that time, Ukraines air defense is falling to Zero, in spite of the West giving Ukraine all the Patriot systems and interceptor missiles they can spare. So it is going across all the military disciplines, especially artillery, which has formed the backbone of the Russian war of attrition.
Agreed. Remember who fund CSIS. Part of industrial military complex so their narratives will be pro Ukraine. Russia has resources and manpower to sustain the war, but Ukraine can’t. Americans are not willing send their troops . They will be decimated….wherever Russia is doing, Ukraine is not winning. They Keep talking that Russia is paying significant loses. But not about Ukraine. Bring in Russia expert and not these propagandist
TBH it is only old weapon systems that have been sent to Ukraine. Absolute state of the art stuff is still held back to avoid training russia in countermeasures. So ATACMS is 1980s technology, of course its accuracy is effected by jamming. 2020s missiles have visual mapping, GPS, inertial and external guidance systems tied into AWACS and satellite systems, alongside their own ground mapping radar, if they aren't being stealthy.
It's an American think thank why would you think your going to get honest assessments? Part of the reasons they put out these videos is for narrative control and shaping. I did the calculation base on widely Reported numbers and the claim they make about Russia artillery usage being unsustainable is nonsense and that's just one example.
It is a shame the US and our allies do not see increase production of all the items we are lacking (weapons) is needed. We are setting ourselves up to fail big time.
Our federal budget now spends more on paying interest on national debt than defense spending. Our Politicians continue to win popularity by spending money we finance add on to that long term debt. U.S. dollar is approaching loosing reserve currency status. Time to shrink debt and federal government agencies. 65% of payroll are government sector jobs.. grow private business and industry not debt producing government.
Ukrainians can’t afford weapons. Most of its allies are taking out loans with interest to pay for Ukrainian aid. Russia really doesn’t have allies in the same context. They are paying for everything they receive.
From ”russia is out of shells” to ”Ooops, russian use of massive stockpiles”? What stockpiles, they were out of ammo and had ”already lost the war” last year? Poor analysis then and perhaps now as well…
After the 90s we lost all our Russian expertise. We have no clue when it comes to the place I've concluded. I think in general we were so enamoured by talk of the end of history and being something beyond a superpower that we lost our ability to perform analysis and conduct diplomacy etc. How many Russian and China experts do we probably have that can speak the language and read their media/journals/papers etc. Very few. If China had a US expert who couldn't speak English we would never stop laughing.
They begged North Korea recently because they needed more shells. They had massive stockpiles of 1970s tanks, thousands have been destroyed. They had to change to war economy because of losing massive amounts of resources in the field.
@@trogdortpennypacker6160Multiple of these on the video speak fluent Russian. English is spoken ubiquitously around the world. Ruzzian, not so much. It's unimportant. Chinese speak English because they are clever at communication and business, they understand their trading partners which is wise. Countries that don't understand each other can often communicate well in English together. Soon Ruzzian language will be Chinese and Kazakh, because the clever Ruzzians leave for nice countries, or become meat waves. They import many replacements. Ruble is already tied to Yuan now, permanently. China also wants a land around Manchuria back, that's how things start. Kazakh, Dagestani.. Also recently India population no longer need to apply for Ruzz visas, to replace numbers. They can just go there. Also Tens of thousands of North Koreans recently. Very different country in 10 years! Ruzzian men are given to the Ukrainian fields.
@@bardsamok9221 They are at 7-8% of GDP on defence spending, although we say it is a war economy we were at 15% of GDP in the Korean War and at 45% in WWII. I agree they've turned up spending but war economy by any definition is wrong. We are at like a 7% deficit and the Russians are only running a 2% deficit. Doesn't scream war economy in my view, even though we use that narrative.
The reason was economic cost vis-a-vis a determined and legitimate opponent in the United States, ie someone willing and able to take advantage of those costs towards their ends. Nowadays, this threat does not exist as the West has believably and continuously affirmed its non aggression towards Russia, ie there is nothing to lose from being at a cost differential because no one would take advantage of it.
@@john.8805 Europe is rearming, especially Poland and Germany, not to mention others. So that potential perceived threat is growing, and it's all in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
@@B.D.E. And to finish the root cause: Russia's invasion being in response to US stubborn insistance to get Ukraine into NATO. Overall quite good result until now for US on their stubborn insistance to get Ukraine into NATO: 1) US sells their gas replacing Russian gas 2) US sells their weapons and do get finally all Europeans to spend at least 2% of theri GDP on military However, next step is nuclear escalation. Already on last escalation US (and western) weapons do now kill Russians on Russian soil and this means US (West) is DIRECTLY involved into the war, which does not only give Russia the possibility to strike on US (Western) soil by their weapons, but even the obligation to do this to defend Russian lives. Congratulation for US to have arrived at atomic war for the stubborn insistence to get Ukraine into NATO!
It’s rather strange that no one is mentioning that pulling from Soviet stocks at an 80-20 rate and still running an equipment deficit means that if they somehow rebuild every single vehicle they will get to a point where for every 20 vehicles they make they’ll be short 80 vehicles, or whatever reference point. These stocks aren’t infinite, and they’re being exploited to the fullest
The fact remains that Ukraine has fewer stocks of military equipment and supplies than Russia and a war of attrition will favor Russia over Ukraine without Western aid to Ukraine.
@@csis this is true in absolute terms but the coalition has much more equipment available, off the top of my head 8000 M113s are in storage compared to the exhausted MTLB supplies But beyond that, Russian conduct in combat is very expensive in terms of equipment, these things should still be at least mentioned and considered even if they fall outside the industrial economic considerations, they’re still relevant to the needs. In terms of without western support, yeah the equipment situation is grossly in favor of Russia but the ammunition problem will be the decisive factor much more quickly, not the equipment situation, that’ll just be made worse by the ammo shortage
@@csis And, as it turns out, with Western aid to Ukraine. Challenger, Bradley, Abrams, Leopard, M777, HIMARS, ATACMS, Patriot (don't make me laugh!)... all inadequate against a peer or beyond-peer force. The West's beautiful vision of GPS making their forces invincible was only a dream.
@@gcrav "all inadequate against a peer or beyond-peer force" They are doing quite a fantastic and effective job for being inadequate. But hey, I guess you are just for a rusty T-62 with a shed on top, clearly the superior machine to join the rest of the pile of lost russian equipment ;p. "Patriot (don't make me laugh!)" So ineffective that Ukraine is begging for more (it's on the way) and production has been increased ^^.
@@lepetitroquet9410 Ukraine is stuck with whatever AD systems are available from the West, no matter how inadequate they are against Russian standoff weapons. And you know why they're begging for more, right? Because they are getting systematically destroyed precisely because they are so inadequate. When you see Russian drone footage of Iskander and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian airfields, that can mean only one thing: Complete Russian airspace control from the launch point to the target. That would not be possible if Western AD systems were adequate to their current task. And they're not adequate because the doctrine under which they were developed, really a continuation of WWII theories on airpower, are discredited under modern conditions of peer or beyond-peer combat.
Q: "We have been wrong about nearly everything in regards to The Ukraine War, how do we explain away and cope with the fact, that Russia is winning the war and their defense industrial base is outperforming all of NATO combined?" A: "Well it has nothing to do with our corrupt military industrial complex and the fact we greatly overpay for boutique systems, it has nothing to do with the fact that it costs as much as a couple new cars to become a welder in the US, it has nothing to do with the fact that Russian tech is designed to be more affordable/mass produceable AND is designed specifically for the conditions it is being used in. It's globalization and North Korea and China and the USSR even! " These people are experts at coping and applying ideological blinders to their conclusions. Whatever they are, they aren't "Russia" experts.
You may want to also check out CFR, Hudson Institute, Aspen Institute, and then for respectable Russo-Ukraine coverage, there's Jake Broe, Artur Rehi, Anna From Ukraine, Ukraine Matters, Operator Starskey, etc.
@@GeoScorpion Is CSIS's coverage not respectable? Looking at this group's backgrounds they seem to have the appropriate backgrounds to analyze and discuss this subject.
Are you saying this broadcast talks too much about Russia and not enough about Ukraine? Or are you saying we should only talk about Russia and ignore an analysis of Ukrainian war production because Russia has already won this conflict?
The fact that these people didn’t anticipate China and Iran to immediately help Russia is what concerns me… NK maybe they thought “Putin would never stoop that low for his own ego” but the other two… people should have known they would be able to heel Russias defense industry booming
So you are saying that the Soviet troops Afghanistan essentially were performing purely peaceful functions: building houses, hospitals, roads, and wells? Ah yes, the famous Soviet Hearts‐and‐Minds campaigns. The reality is that though both the U.S. and Soviet Union invested heavily in road construction there from 1950 through the Soviet invasion in 1980, Afghanistan still has the lowest density of paved roads in Central Asia
Kabul was once nicknamed "Paris of Central Asia. Supported by USSR they built roads and universities (women were encouraged to get education). Conservative forces in the country did not like these policies...and unfortunately they got support from US.
You got that right , Somehow Putin , Has a person on the inside , Or just straight up bribed them , He is cooking the books The numbers Putin gave the IMF Are his numbers , And the numbers don't lie Russia has been in deficit spending For Two years , Something's Gotta giive Every legitimate economist Knows You cannot Spend more Then what you bring in For any left of time It can only produce catastropic Results The war is ripping putin a new asshole , Another? Well known economist Said a year ago Watch for this sign Is putin will raise Taxes On an economy That is teetering
Yeah, it's crazy to me that more people don't realize this. There's some general public trust in "official statistics". So, people see these numbers, and just regurgitate them without doing any research on their reliability or where they come from.
@@DalerMehndiDeekSheik Agreed. To an extent, though, most of the people on stage and physically there in the audience see these numbers every day to the point where they see the numbers in their sleep, so they may just be jumping over the obvious caveats... I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt... lol!
@@GeoScorpion Valid point. These people obviously know their stuff. It was more directed at the armchair geopolitical strategists and disingenuous people that spread disinformation. It's one of those areas where it is actually pretty effective, because unless you really deep dive into macroeconomics and geopolitics, the average person is rarely aware of that important detail.
Maria on 29:00 bends truth a little: there were two distinct campaigns of Russia bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure. First one in winter of 2022-2023 targeted electrical junctions, its idea was to make life of regular Ukrainians uncomfortable and this campaign was generally unsuccessful: expensive rockets striking cheap transformers that were easy to replace. Second campaign started as a direct response to Ukrainian drones with advanced image-based geolocation that were able to fly hundreds kilometers into Russia to hit oil refineries, this ongoing bombing campain targets energy (and heat) generating capabilities directly.
... says the guy who posts mindless comments for RMB¥0.50 per comment... or because of budget cuts is it "two dimes" now? Do they even bother paying you, anymore? When was the last time you saw a paycheck? 🙄🤭
@@B.D.E. I think you are under estimating their industrial capacity. The way they ramped up their shell production is a clear sign they have the machines and the manpower. Production of heavy machinery is also a sizeable portion of their industrial output. And when push comes to shove there is allways China. But feel free to point me to source material that proves your point.
I only skimmed through it, but I did not see any details (or actual facts or figures). Unless I missed something. I am getting sick of experts and all of their talk fests on TH-cam (esp Times Radio)
@ 16.03 Russia is using their old vehicles (BMT's, etc.). Once these vehicles are destroyed or considered unusable, will they be able to create more of these after the war? If so, will the supplies to remake them be sanctioned.
To all those who feel sorry for wasting 1 hour 27 minutes 16 seconds of their lives, a short summary - "Well, who could have predicted this before? How good it is that we take no responsibility for our previous predictions! What a good thing!"
Indeed, any talk about the Russian invasion is like group therapy. Rather spend energy to implement 100% sanctions on Russia and on any country or company dealing with Russia. That goes for China as well, we complain about China and their desire to increase their influence in the world, and we keep trading and manufacturing in China. Once China reverse engineers our products we complain about theft of intellectual property rights
@@mylessalmon2569 Armoured vehicles = warfare Levy (trucks and other tps automobiles = transport It indicates that both sides are using stop gaps and preserving heavier equipment
@@kaloyan2090 They may not have the equipment. Russia is pulling from Soviet supplies which are dwindling. Russia cannot manufacture enough to replace their losses. Russia has turned to China for motorcycles and the 4-wheel drive carts.
_“These expert [sic] have never spent any lenth [sic] of time in russia [sic]”_ Maria Snegovaya is a native Russian speaker who graduated with a BA in Economics and Finance *in Moscow* in 2005. She then worked as a Research Assistant for five years at the Higher School of Economics *in Moscow.*
@@crogeny who cares, I'm still waiting for anything said about Russia since the first weeks of their attack on Ukraine to actually be factual. A lot of Russians they have, haven't been there in years and typical turncoats - you get people who hate their Country, history, people, government or all..., a lot of them in West. I've not watched this, nor will I, likely full of shit but I actually could be wrong but wouldn't be surprised if any facts they do spew are spun out of context to suit whatever picture their painting.
The opinions and views expressed on this broadcast are those of the participating speakers. They are part of a larger community that analyzes the implications of global events and how governments can formulate policy to reach positive global outcomes related to those events. It is entirely possible that the opinions expressed on this broadcast align with the opinions of other subject matter experts in this area of global foreign policy.
I got through the first 3 minutes, but I'm not really interested in 'economists' who characterise military manufacturing growth as GDP / Economic growth. Military production is an overhead not growth. So a growing overhead means a shrinking of real economy, the engine that finances the Military production. An economy of 100% military production could grow tenfold every week, but the workers would starve to death by the end of the month. Is this just propaganda, naivety or something else?
Why argue about it ? - all we have to do is wait a while and we'll see how Russia gets on with this war. I can't see it making Russia into a 'Great Power', but let's see what happens.
You folks better realize that China is already making things for the Russian war effort and from here on its going to grow. China can produce millions of modern war drones and can field a 200,000,000 man fully equipped army.
We just need to look at what Russia did in WW2 when they moved all of their factories to behind the urals. They are on a war footing and the whole economy can be directed towards it. Whereas in the west we struggle to spend 3% of GDP on defence But I do belive that the west can easily out produce Russia and with better weapons
It is going to be funny when cnn reports that all the russian cities are evacuating and they tell americans to shelter in place. the drones will wiiiinnn ww3.
The US defense budget is an economic disaster. in fact, it's a positive feedback system which will either spark a catastrophic war or break us economically.
Yes, if: - automobile factories, for instance, are retooled to produce simple tanks and aircraft - the labor force in the armaments industry is significantly expanded by the inclusion of women and minorities - supply chains are made more robust and less complex, relying heavily on domestic production and simple logistics networks - the governments play a direct and extensive role in financing and directing production.
Very good discussion. I wish there was more about the triangle of Iran, China and Russia, with the emphasis on Iran; since Iran seems to have made great progress on copying some of the most common and high efficiency Jet Engines for applying them to the Gas Turbine applications and later to commercial jets that it might be developing on its own or in collaboration with the Sukhoi for fitting up the Russian Sukhoi commercial jets. Since modern high-efficiency large jet engines maybe a stumbling block for Russia's commercial aviation at this time.
When reading what you said, I was like where is this going when i get to Iran, China and Russia with emphasis on Iran until it spun off... I thought you were going to the trade routes from the Indian Ocean/Pacific going through Iran instead of the Red Sea. That is something we should focus on.
Drones with AI had already became a changegame ammunition long time ago. I seems to me, the best Players are awaiting something to begin to demonstrate their best examples. If so, this war is an another example of "strange war".
Most of us weapons are Soviet era as well. What you talking about, and the organization that count losses they all count more Ukrainian losses then russian, talk about that
The West is treading carefully to avoid provoking an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. With Belarus now posturing in support of Russia the West is being careful to prevent a wider, regional conflict from happening.
Not sure if its worth my time. Ill simply highlight that 1991 saw the collapse of the Russian defence industry as the bad advice saw it crumble. Unlike western countries, these capabilities were mothballed, not that Russia is at war these old factories are again back in operation and you see the economy doing well. In terms of completion with western defence industry who have held a monopoly over the last 30 years, i think there is no better example then the 6th gen fighter program that will see the fewest number of jets ever acquired in a new generational airplane which will be supplemented with highly disposable, highly advanced and very expensive in terms of acquisition and research. Key point here id disposable, since when did anything in terms of the most advanced research become disposable? The U-2 was grounded over a single lose, the lose of a F117 was considered a complete disaster. So id be more worried about the western defence industry, rather then speculating on the Russian one considering once this war end and the sanctions are removed your going to be dealing with this giants Russian defence instrutry that is going to be exporting brand new, proven, military capabilities while the west is building disposable crap as if they following the China model of exports. Maybe speculate the SU-57 is still in prototyping, likewise the Armada Tank. What going to happen in 10 years when these two military capabilities are pitted against some crap the western military has concocted as "disposable" when they have more of the most restricted manufacturing bases in terms of expansion? Which we have seen with an inability to deal with shell shortages. Should be looking in your own back yard and be critical there, before you sit on your high horse talking about a Russian defence industry that is outproducing the collective western world by themselves and actually making ground. Less about Russian capabilities and more related to the fact western defence is a joke that hasn't won a conflict since WW2 and just goes around killing people who can't really fight back inwhich they still lost too.
Western defence industry is incapable of producing the correct weapons to fight a conflict. Which ultimately stems from corruption of these companies who undermine democracy. It doesn't help that US politics is considering a pathway for the socialist construct of the military. The military feeds you, houses you, makes your exercise and stay healthy. That sort of baseline failure of basic human function path wayed into decision making is a high degree of corruption based entirely on the networks they have created within this socialists construct.= And you see this very poor level of discipline, in terms of saying in your own lane, when it comes to things like accountability of war-crimes. Amount of American in Ukraine that say they don't take prisoners, basically admitting to murdering people who surrender. That level of "the rules don't apply to me" is seen within the defence sector and when your talking about commercial competition. Well enjoy your Chinese 6th gen jets... im sure many countries can't wait to get their hands on those AI wingmen to use in their own mass producted creations. Maybe drone swarms or soemthing aye? When can i expect to be able to find AI just lying around on the ground because its military based AI is disposable.
I'll sum up what you; just how much of our tax monies in the West is siphoned off by god knows who as it was in the Russian sphere? Yeah, we should be focusing more on our own backyard and investigating every single b*tch and d*ckhead enriching themselves at our expense.
Weird comment. The F117A was considered a successful aircraft overall and saw plenty of service in its lifetime from 1983 to 2008. Its talked about as as being one of the best light bombers ever. A total revolution over previous bombers that struggled particularly in the Vietnam theatre for example. F117 had a great mission success rate. That one got shot down by a lucky shot that was never repeated was not a big deal for the USAF. They just tweaked a few things and it was never shot down again.
@@jonathanbowen3640 Id like to remind you that it was shot down in 1999, so yeah its shoot down was a big deal as within a decade the aircraft was considered obsolete. I think you fail to grasp the concept of losing one aircraft in combat, and losing compounding aircraft in combat and what kind of capabilities that gives your enemy. A good example of this is Iran with the RQ-170 drone, it wasn't shot down, they captured it fully intact. Inwhich they reversed engineered it now have a domestic product that is in use in Ukraine. You may have heard of the Shahed drone. Point i am getting at, is advanced research is NEVER considered disposable. It loss to the enemy is considered a political nightmare for policy makers as billions in research funds and handed over to your enemy. So when we consider AI controlled wingmen, well i would call it blatant corruption and international interference at the highest levels of research and development. Coming from either the defence complex themselves, or within public office putting forward buzz word capabilities or its both and the complex is full of traitors. I don't think you really grasp the whole concept of an AI piloted wingman in an atmosphere of jamming technology. Your not merely losing manufacturing secrets like the honeycomb structure of the F117. But the software, i don't think you really grasp the concept that American coders are subpar when considering their counterparts who have much less processing power and have to optimize their code a hell of a lot more. With hundreds of J-6 aircraft already set up as drones, a single AI windman that has the AI stolen could pilot an entire fleet of hundreds of obsolete fighter aircraft is swarm formations. Quantity has a quality of its own and you just handed the people with quantity a pilot that can fly anything, everything, at the same time. Has to be the dumbest conceptual thinking that has ever propagated within the defence industry. Even movies like Matrix and Terminator leaves questions like how did humanity lose air superiority? There is something seriously wrong in American. Personally i think its NAZI ideology within the Military, this sense of national identity with this leeching off the tax payer because they are lazy and entitled. They care more about themselves, then the nation and actively work to undermine both the country and its politics. All is pursuit of money and power. Not grasping the growing threat of China, Globalists, NWO and Climate Fanatics that want to see the oil producing giant that is the USA crumble and banned from the energy market.
New fresh off the line production for Russia appears very good...far better than in the USA which can barely make 155mm howitzer ammo let alone M777 Howitzers. Still clear that Russian Industry is not at all prepared for their World War 3 nor is that moving in a direction that says Russia is becoming so either. This has as a consequence afforded rather not "smartly done"(slow) Western response an awesome amount of time to now change the situation on the ground materially in favor of Ukraine against Russia to include the remarkable changes in Warfare as a result of dirt cheap drones and cell phones/Starlink. I see no way for Russia to recover from their disaster #military_adventure in Ukraine for the time being (6 Months) as a consequence with quite the opposite now currently on the table #war_machine great subject a lot that is now knowable but best to start with a Map and how primitive Russian Military logistics in fact is.
Thanks for dealing with that matter. I Always ask myself If the politicians are enough aware of a possible Russian win with enourmous amounts of Refugees, enourmous follow Up costs of ramping Up Military and the immininent danger If Russia sitting Just behind Poland 🇺🇲🤝🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
The West is suffering from lack of strategic patience. Facts even here but also elsewhere with a more critical drill-down on the 3.5% nominal growth and on the refurb-heavy industry indicate Russia will hit a wall in keeping up with the attrition given the state of Soviet inventories in a year or two, tanks being among those running out first. In terms of wars of attrition against a world class power like Russia this is relatively fast, meaning if Ukraine can receive weapons at or over current rate a year or two, and keeps ramping up its own production, especially drones, Russia will be in a true predicament.
Interesting that you refer to Russian stockpiles as "Soviet" inventories. It is true that Putin's strategy is to outlast Western (American) interest in the war in Ukraine and it is true that without Western support Ukraine will not be able to support its defense. The political situation in the United States is also not encouraging for Ukraine with one political party supporting the war and the other against. European nations are less likely to lose interest as the conflict is on their doorstep and they should continue to prompt the United States to provide aid to Ukraine. Hopefully whatever administration is in power in the United States will recognize that allowing Ukraine to succumb to Russian aggression is not in the interest of the West and that failure to support Ukraine could incite Russia to commit aggression against European nations beyond Ukraine's borders.
@@csisIt is important to distinguish between Soviet and Russian stockpiles as the military vehicles industry in Russia utterly collapsed at the dissolution of the Soviet with the latter genuinely mass-producing in vast scale. 90s was an era of destruction and prihvatisatsiya where the small remnants of the once grand industry was moved to private, later nominally private hands. Even after Russia grew wealthier, the dysfunction and corruption never recovered this industry but to a very moderate level, Armata being a pinnacle of the problems there. And just like now, modernization of gear pulled from the bottomless Soviet storages probably has been responsible for at least some of the nominally new-produced models of Soviet designs. Models like T90 are more of an indication of new-production and even there one should be critical in estimating them as new-production from scratch. As the war shows us Chinese golf carts and Zündapp-like four-wheel motorcycles as well as T-62 turtle tanks and even exotic vehicles like the Ladoga doomsday IFV's, it is more revealing regarding the depth of the Soviet storage. Finally, as late-Soviet and post-Soviet individuals in Russia so aggressively sold critical parts of their armor (I have held in my hands a T72 night sight an ex-KGB guy was trying to sell), this combined with the progressively more not-cared units at the Soviet-era armor depots left to refurbish, and tightening sanctions, I believe the story of bottomless Russian resources is another ruse of Putin the West too eagerly swallows and hence him running out of production-worthy Soviet refurbishable material is closer than what we think. And that studies on this important topic need to be very very clever in seeing through his ruse, yet realistic. I like the study presented but think there is room for another *really* looking into the aspects I discussed, also as the situation constantly changes, e.g. with current sanctions possibly getting efficient. And repeat studies could ideally tell where next rounds of sanctions could be the most effective in tightening the noose around the Russian military-industrial base.
Refurbishing T-62s and T-55s into turtle tanks certainly will not be a long-term viable strategy for the Russians. Indeed a deeper study of Russian stockpiles could help target resources for sanction to make sanctions more effective - certainly a path that the US and European countries may want to follow to limit Russia's ability to wage conventional war. Thank you for your additional thoughts on this topic. The situation with the ex-KGB personnel attempting to sell you tank optics sounds like a fascinating story!
yes, 'Breaking up Moscow empire is the only way to end its imperialism', And I don’t mean Putin´s imperialism, but Moscow imperialism in general , from Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky to Yeltsin and Dugin....
Hello! Thanks for the analysis. Should I believe this? After all the earlier talking heads believed the second best army in Ukraine would take over in less than a year. Both the army and the TH's failed. Russia has a disposable soldier program! Regards
The Russian economy is booming in a phenomenon not seen since the US in the 1940s. Shall I be so bold as to say Keynesian military economics. However i feel that Russia may face the same problem as the US. How do you stop fighting when war has become so profitable. Here in Vietnam we know all about it.
Thanks, I appreciate such programs. QUESTION: What percentage of the population of Russia understand they are actually fighting Ukraine, and that the Ukrainians are fighting in the degree that the Ukrainians are? QUESTION: What is the "heartstrings" of the Russians for their Ukrainians neighbors/brothers? QUESTION: Do the public Russians have the concept they are at war, or do they still have ignorance of the degree of deaths on both sides? It seems like the issue of the Russian's population understanding of how costly the war is in terms of lives of lost Russians, and lost Ukrainians (neighbors, brothers) would play a huge huge factor in the overall END to the conflict. Do you have research on this angle, or not the purview of your think tank? The obvious best counter attack would be to get the Russian public to become turned against this war, and dry up support for killing Ukrainians and losing their citizens lives fighting there.
The russians are running out of wire brushes scrapping and brushing 50 years of rust off all those ancient chunks of metal they inherited from the old bust soviet empire 🤣🤣🤣🤣
I did not have to watch this babble to summarize it for you: if russian defense industry is still functioning, then we are not serious about winning this conflict.
Ok, so Russia's economy is growing at 3.6% Because it is at a war economy! Any state that is spending the funds that Russia is doing now would have a growing economy. I have seen estimates of 30%-45% of GNP spent on the war. What about the inflation rate? Also, estimates of 16% Now, what is this nonsense that Maria Sneogvaya is saying? Where is her balanced objectivity?? How do you say you are Russian, without saying you are Russian?
One innovation is the ‘glide cocoon rocket pod’, where some poor fellow gets inside a pod and gets slingshot out whereupon a little rocket accelerates him via gps glide and like base jump parachutes at the end and he simply hatches out with all his kit. If accuracy was decent they could land safely in good spots. If there’s mobile launchers it’s like loading up artillery except with poor wretches in little re usable plastic or metal planes like theme park ride styles, they could even have macabre humour by painting over the camo, like the ‘red baron’ or ‘led zeppelin’ mig ufo
I imagine they come up with this report using an otjie board. Political science is opinion not science but opinion. Engineers would be better qualified to analyze military production since they know math
That’s a really weird statement Russias economy is growing by 3 percent. Yes but inflation is 16% so that’s not a lot of actual growth. It’s just everything costs more
All the military types have been anticipating some resurgence of U.S. 'industrial base' for the Ukraine adventure, as in 'arsenal of democracy'. This issue has lingered near public dialog since the GFC discussions on loss of U.S. auto industry. We are employing the means we have ... sanctions and surveillance .
Very competent indiviuals totally focusing on just one side of the issue, exept for the last couple of minutes. Economy stupid! The russian economy take a massive beating right now; the currancy, inflation and the revenues from oil and gas. The strong economic figures right now reflect a boost from the war economy, not from fundamentals and is not going to last for long. 2026 Russia will have problem to continue the war; Ukraine has no alternative...
The report takes Russian output data at face value (despite it being a weapon in an information war), underestimates visually confirmed Russian tank losses in 2023 by c.20% and references output without giving numbers (the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimate new build T90-M production might reach 90p.a. in 2025 up from 40 pre invasion, so just 50 more tanks!). Then there's the obvious point that Russia's drone warfare is based on Iranian drones and assembling Chinese kits. For whatever reason there's a stink here of better to exaggerate than to underestimate.
crimea is a lost cause for putin , his expenses lost in airdefence and naval capbility and lost of logistical supply security of territory ,crimea will not be a holiday location next summer for muscovites
![Global Teacher Conversation 2024: Year End Reflections [21 December 2024]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/x2SIdfBgwYc/mqdefault.jpg)
Oh Russia has a big population and massive soviet era stockpiles and a big military industrial complex. If only we knew this 2 years ago we might have been able to come out with different analysis....ahhh wait
Csis could not distinguish between X-101 and X-55/X-55CM missiles
Problem with Western analysts is their pessimism about Russia, and that's why they always get it wrong. From running out of stock to on stock in less than one year. Or maybe the analysts just just don't know anything about Russia. Too much generalisation. For instance, they talk about NK stockpiles yet they don't have any figures about how much NK has, how much it has sent, and how much it can produce. Same to Iran anything they talk about.
North Korea will not exactly be forthcoming with Western analysts about the level of military stockpiles they hold . Open source intel can only take you so far. However Western analysts are adept at taking available data and creating an analytical snapshot of current Russian supply and logistics. Repeated snapshots help build a larger, more detailed view of Russian miliary stocks. The fact that Western analysts have observed transfers of North Korean ammunition stocks to Russia is an indicator that Russia is having issues with their own ammunition manufacturing.
@@csis Getting more from other suppliers doesn't necessarily mean running out of stock. It may mean expanding variety. For instance, Iranian kamikaze drones are cheaper and have longer range than Russian made Lancet. However, not so good with moving targets. Imports may be filling a gap for tactical advantage. NK ballistic missiles could supplement Islander missiles, allowing Russia to use Islander for more strategic targets. Use of glide bombs, don't take it that Russia is out of missiles. It is simply utilizing available and cheaper options. After all, it's a long war. Learning and adjusting is the game.
@@fabianabongo6284 You’re more of a better analyst and critical thinker than most of our so called Western Think Tanks. They’re always 6 months to 1 year late coming to a conclusion that everyone else saw coming smh
Explanation: they lie to facilitate war.
@@francotheafrican7550 that´s the result of placing snob privileged kids with ivy leagues degrees in places of strategic policy-making positions. They never set a foot on a battlefield, but they wrote an essay for their PhD on "the russian threat" or "how NK is set to take over the world". Then daddy´s old friend a classmate, both working in some lobbying firm help them get that essay through all the DC beaurocracy and then BINGO... Anthony Blinken makes it to Sec of State and Victoria Nuland Nat Sec advisor.
How did you predict two years ago??
😂😂😂😂😂😂
The prediction counts less than the arguments and evidence.
After all, Putin predicted he could take Ukraine in two weeks. And the russian media claimed Russia could take Ukraine in three days. And many are still claiming it's impossible for Russia to lose this war.
Don't rely on other people's prediction, just gather evidence and make up your own mind instead of sheeplishly following someone's word as a credo.
Russia was definitely never "Out of stock" of any military equipment, since the Ukrainian conflict started back in 2014
After the invasion in 2022
They had some shortages but nothing to the degree Ukraine persistently has.
In August 2022, Russia was however low on Soldiers, due to having to withdraw 100k of their Conscripts, and therefore they declared a mobilization of 300k on 21 September 2022.
Since then they have had another 305k (and still growing) of volunteers.
Russia now has no shortage in Soldiers or Weapons, unlike Ukraine and the West.
The current war of attraction favours Russia.
'attrition' ; thanks for good/relevant comment.
A few elements:
- The russian side of the war claimed firing 60,000 shells per day in 2022. Now they claim firing 10,000 shells per day.
- 80% of the tanks Russia produces are refurbished from the soviet legacy stocks which are slowly but surely running dry. The actual production of new equipment remains very low compared to the losses in Putin's war.
- The western production of 155mm shells went from 0.5 million per year in 2022 to more than 2 million per year by the end of 2024 and still increasing.
- The cost of the war for Russia is already close to 10% of GDP and will have to increase drastically if they intend to keep up production after the soviet legacy stocks are empty. For the western countries (who are the one paying on the ukrainian side), it's less than 1% of GDP.
- The russian civilian economy is supported by huge expenses from the state which rely on a reserve of funds that is also getting depleted. Already the Kremlin has been and is continuing to increase taxes all over the board and the russian central bank is sending a lot of alarmed signals that the short term measures won't suffice anymore.
"Russia now has no shortage in Soldiers or Weapons, unlike Ukraine and the West."
Evidence shows it won't last. Russia could maintain the supply of weapons and ammo if they make the great economic sacrifices required, but it's clear Ukraine and the West are on a path of plentiful supplies of weaponry and ammo for, at the end of the day, compared to their overall economies, a tenth of the cost, so way more sustainable.
"The current war of attraction favours Russia."
Thinking that would be as grave if not a worse calculation than the belief Putin had that he could take over Ukraine in two weeks if he wanted. Russia is running out of time (they will never just "not have weapon or ammo anymore", but they will lose all the advantages they are currently holding), the cracks are already showing and it can get way, way worse for them while things are just getting better and better for the ukrainians (more money, more weapons and ammo of ever greater quality).
I agree to a point. Despite having no direct shortages Russia seems unable to accumulate overwhelming force or being unable to use it.
@@vilandar
At the same time, they are accused of having enough missiles to waist on blowing up a school in Kyiv.
Just in time to be a talking point at the 75 NATO summit.
Russia has gone out of it's way not to escalate this conflict and that is why they have shown restraint, in the face of the NATO escalation, so they are slowly ramping up to going full hog. They are now stepping up as NATO goes ahead with their brinkmanship.
Over and over Russia has tried to have a fair negotiated settlement but as with Boris Johnson stepping in and blocking the first negotiations after the invasion, the West keeps on escalating.
At every step (except when Russia was short of manpower and as opposed to equipment, in August to September 2022) Russia has out done Ukraine / NATO in taking it to the next level in response to the escalation from the West.
In the winter on 2023 Ukraine had significant electricity shortages. In the winter of 2024 Ukraine will have a desperate electricity shortage.
In 2022 Russia sent over about 1000 missiles
In 2023 Russia sent over 2000 missiles.
In 2024 Russia will have sent over 4000 missiles.
In that time, Ukraines air defense is falling to Zero, in spite of the West giving Ukraine all the Patriot systems and interceptor missiles they can spare.
So it is going across all the military disciplines, especially artillery, which has formed the backbone of the Russian war of attrition.
Agreed. Remember who fund CSIS. Part of industrial military complex so their narratives will be pro Ukraine. Russia has resources and manpower to sustain the war, but Ukraine can’t. Americans are not willing send their troops . They will be decimated….wherever Russia is doing, Ukraine is not winning. They Keep talking that Russia is paying significant loses. But not about Ukraine. Bring in Russia expert and not these propagandist
The economic cost of war is a primary consideration.
Not for the Russians
As for accuracy, Western munitions have been suffering much more due to the Russian ability to interfere with their guidance systems.
TBH it is only old weapon systems that have been sent to Ukraine. Absolute state of the art stuff is still held back to avoid training russia in countermeasures. So ATACMS is 1980s technology, of course its accuracy is effected by jamming. 2020s missiles have visual mapping, GPS, inertial and external guidance systems tied into AWACS and satellite systems, alongside their own ground mapping radar, if they aren't being stealthy.
This discussion seems weirdly very one-sided?
It's an American think thank why would you think your going to get honest assessments? Part of the reasons they put out these videos is for narrative control and shaping. I did the calculation base on widely Reported numbers and the claim they make about Russia artillery usage being unsustainable is nonsense and that's just one example.
Only _the truth_ showed up, sorry . . .
It is a shame the US and our allies do not see increase production of all the items we are lacking (weapons) is needed. We are setting ourselves up to fail big time.
The volunteering effort at drones and quad copters and those monthly production estimates was particularly startling.
Politicians ARE idiots!
Our federal budget now spends more on paying interest on national debt than defense spending. Our Politicians continue to win popularity by spending money we finance add on to that long term debt. U.S. dollar is approaching loosing reserve currency status.
Time to shrink debt and federal government agencies. 65% of payroll are government sector jobs.. grow private business and industry not debt producing government.
😅😂😂😂 how? You ignoramus
Ukrainians can’t afford weapons. Most of its allies are taking out loans with interest to pay for Ukrainian aid. Russia really doesn’t have allies in the same context. They are paying for everything they receive.
This must have been very painful for the panelists. Thoughts and prayers.
I don't think Ukraine will be able to overcome their limitations, no matter how you spin it!
From ”russia is out of shells” to ”Ooops, russian use of massive stockpiles”? What stockpiles, they were out of ammo and had ”already lost the war” last year?
Poor analysis then and perhaps now as well…
After the 90s we lost all our Russian expertise. We have no clue when it comes to the place I've concluded. I think in general we were so enamoured by talk of the end of history and being something beyond a superpower that we lost our ability to perform analysis and conduct diplomacy etc. How many Russian and China experts do we probably have that can speak the language and read their media/journals/papers etc. Very few. If China had a US expert who couldn't speak English we would never stop laughing.
They begged North Korea recently because they needed more shells. They had massive stockpiles of 1970s tanks, thousands have been destroyed. They had to change to war economy because of losing massive amounts of resources in the field.
@@trogdortpennypacker6160Multiple of these on the video speak fluent Russian.
English is spoken ubiquitously around the world. Ruzzian, not so much. It's unimportant.
Chinese speak English because they are clever at communication and business, they understand their trading partners which is wise. Countries that don't understand each other can often communicate well in English together.
Soon Ruzzian language will be Chinese and Kazakh, because the clever Ruzzians leave for nice countries, or become meat waves. They import many replacements.
Ruble is already tied to Yuan now, permanently. China also wants a land around Manchuria back, that's how things start.
Kazakh, Dagestani.. Also recently India population no longer need to apply for Ruzz visas, to replace numbers. They can just go there. Also Tens of thousands of North Koreans recently. Very different country in 10 years!
Ruzzian men are given to the Ukrainian fields.
@@bardsamok9221 They are at 7-8% of GDP on defence spending, although we say it is a war economy we were at 15% of GDP in the Korean War and at 45% in WWII. I agree they've turned up spending but war economy by any definition is wrong. We are at like a 7% deficit and the Russians are only running a 2% deficit. Doesn't scream war economy in my view, even though we use that narrative.
The reason why the U.S.S.R pull out of Afghanistan is economic cost.
The reason was economic cost vis-a-vis a determined and legitimate opponent in the United States, ie someone willing and able to take advantage of those costs towards their ends. Nowadays, this threat does not exist as the West has believably and continuously affirmed its non aggression towards Russia, ie there is nothing to lose from being at a cost differential because no one would take advantage of it.
@@john.8805 Europe is rearming, especially Poland and Germany, not to mention others. So that potential perceived threat is growing, and it's all in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
@@B.D.E. And to finish the root cause: Russia's invasion being in response to US stubborn insistance to get Ukraine into NATO.
Overall quite good result until now for US on their stubborn insistance to get Ukraine into NATO:
1) US sells their gas replacing Russian gas
2) US sells their weapons and do get finally all Europeans to spend at least 2% of theri GDP on military
However, next step is nuclear escalation. Already on last escalation US (and western) weapons do now kill Russians on Russian soil and this means US (West) is DIRECTLY involved into the war, which does not only give Russia the possibility to strike on US (Western) soil by their weapons, but even the obligation to do this to defend Russian lives. Congratulation for US to have arrived at atomic war for the stubborn insistence to get Ukraine into NATO!
@@B.D.E.ya ok😂😂😂😂😂
It’s rather strange that no one is mentioning that pulling from Soviet stocks at an 80-20 rate and still running an equipment deficit means that if they somehow rebuild every single vehicle they will get to a point where for every 20 vehicles they make they’ll be short 80 vehicles, or whatever reference point.
These stocks aren’t infinite, and they’re being exploited to the fullest
The fact remains that Ukraine has fewer stocks of military equipment and supplies than Russia and a war of attrition will favor Russia over Ukraine without Western aid to Ukraine.
@@csis this is true in absolute terms but the coalition has much more equipment available, off the top of my head 8000 M113s are in storage compared to the exhausted MTLB supplies
But beyond that, Russian conduct in combat is very expensive in terms of equipment, these things should still be at least mentioned and considered even if they fall outside the industrial economic considerations, they’re still relevant to the needs.
In terms of without western support, yeah the equipment situation is grossly in favor of Russia but the ammunition problem will be the decisive factor much more quickly, not the equipment situation, that’ll just be made worse by the ammo shortage
@@csis And, as it turns out, with Western aid to Ukraine. Challenger, Bradley, Abrams, Leopard, M777, HIMARS, ATACMS, Patriot (don't make me laugh!)... all inadequate against a peer or beyond-peer force. The West's beautiful vision of GPS making their forces invincible was only a dream.
@@gcrav "all inadequate against a peer or beyond-peer force"
They are doing quite a fantastic and effective job for being inadequate. But hey, I guess you are just for a rusty T-62 with a shed on top, clearly the superior machine to join the rest of the pile of lost russian equipment ;p.
"Patriot (don't make me laugh!)"
So ineffective that Ukraine is begging for more (it's on the way) and production has been increased ^^.
@@lepetitroquet9410 Ukraine is stuck with whatever AD systems are available from the West, no matter how inadequate they are against Russian standoff weapons. And you know why they're begging for more, right? Because they are getting systematically destroyed precisely because they are so inadequate. When you see Russian drone footage of Iskander and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian airfields, that can mean only one thing: Complete Russian airspace control from the launch point to the target. That would not be possible if Western AD systems were adequate to their current task. And they're not adequate because the doctrine under which they were developed, really a continuation of WWII theories on airpower, are discredited under modern conditions of peer or beyond-peer combat.
Q: "We have been wrong about nearly everything in regards to The Ukraine War, how do we explain away and cope with the fact, that Russia is winning the war and their defense industrial base is outperforming all of NATO combined?"
A: "Well it has nothing to do with our corrupt military industrial complex and the fact we greatly overpay for boutique systems, it has nothing to do with the fact that it costs as much as a couple new cars to become a welder in the US, it has nothing to do with the fact that Russian tech is designed to be more affordable/mass produceable AND is designed specifically for the conditions it is being used in. It's globalization and North Korea and China and the USSR even! "
These people are experts at coping and applying ideological blinders to their conclusions. Whatever they are, they aren't "Russia" experts.
The concept of being an expert on a country you’ve never lived in or understand the culture.
We’ll see who breaks first, the west or east
Yeah. The us can easily support $100 trlion of.debt
? The 2nd largest Army in the World now occupies far less Ukrainian Land than it did in 2022.
do you get paid in potatoes and vodka?
@@roscoerosario6992 I'm a bot. any post against another just nato waaaar for freedom and democracy is obviously a bot.
So many details that I haven’t heard discussed anywhere else. Thanks for presenting this.
I mostly agree with what everyone else has said.
You may want to also check out CFR, Hudson Institute, Aspen Institute, and then for respectable Russo-Ukraine coverage, there's Jake Broe, Artur Rehi, Anna From Ukraine, Ukraine Matters, Operator Starskey, etc.
Also ANYONE who has Fiona Hill as a guest...
@@GeoScorpion will do
@@GeoScorpion Is CSIS's coverage not respectable? Looking at this group's backgrounds they seem to have the appropriate backgrounds to analyze and discuss this subject.
Great content, very interesting.
Russia has already won the war. Ukraine can’t sustain this war. All about Russia. Never talk about Ukraine
Are you saying this broadcast talks too much about Russia and not enough about Ukraine? Or are you saying we should only talk about Russia and ignore an analysis of Ukrainian war production because Russia has already won this conflict?
The fact that these people didn’t anticipate China and Iran to immediately help Russia is what concerns me… NK maybe they thought “Putin would never stoop that low for his own ego” but the other two… people should have known they would be able to heel Russias defense industry booming
Dara Massicot is fantastic. Very smart person.
All you need is Brian Berletic New Atlas and you'll know more than these educated idiots.
Daniel Davis / deep dive
@@stuartwray6175both of those men are great
Are you calling these people idiots ?
@@AkenValledeep dive isn’t a man
@@stuartwray6175 yes indeed
The U.S.S.R did not destroy Afghanistan but even build roads.
So you are saying that the Soviet troops Afghanistan essentially were performing purely peaceful functions: building houses, hospitals, roads, and wells? Ah yes, the famous Soviet Hearts‐and‐Minds campaigns. The reality is that though both the U.S. and Soviet Union invested heavily in road construction there from 1950 through the Soviet invasion in 1980, Afghanistan still has the lowest density of paved roads in Central Asia
@@charlesshaw223 Most of the infrastructure was destroyed during the Afghanistan war and Soviet intervention.
@@kaloyan2090And millions of people destroyed.
Kabul was once nicknamed "Paris of Central Asia. Supported by USSR they built roads and universities (women were encouraged to get education). Conservative forces in the country did not like these policies...and unfortunately they got support from US.
@@charlesshaw223 No. How can you attack if there is no road for tanks to pass on the mountains.
2:32 The IMF is using Russian-provided statistics.
You got that right , Somehow Putin , Has a person on the inside , Or just straight up bribed them , He is cooking the books The numbers Putin gave the IMF Are his numbers , And the numbers don't lie Russia has been in deficit spending For Two years , Something's Gotta giive Every legitimate economist Knows You cannot Spend more Then what you bring in For any left of time It can only produce catastropic Results The war is ripping putin a new asshole , Another?
Well known economist Said a year ago Watch for this sign Is putin will raise Taxes On an economy That is teetering
Same with CCP-provided statistics.
Yeah, it's crazy to me that more people don't realize this. There's some general public trust in "official statistics". So, people see these numbers, and just regurgitate them without doing any research on their reliability or where they come from.
@@DalerMehndiDeekSheik Agreed. To an extent, though, most of the people on stage and physically there in the audience see these numbers every day to the point where they see the numbers in their sleep, so they may just be jumping over the obvious caveats... I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt... lol!
@@GeoScorpion Valid point. These people obviously know their stuff. It was more directed at the armchair geopolitical strategists and disingenuous people that spread disinformation. It's one of those areas where it is actually pretty effective, because unless you really deep dive into macroeconomics and geopolitics, the average person is rarely aware of that important detail.
Maria on 29:00 bends truth a little: there were two distinct campaigns of Russia bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
First one in winter of 2022-2023 targeted electrical junctions, its idea was to make life of regular Ukrainians uncomfortable and this campaign was generally unsuccessful: expensive rockets striking cheap transformers that were easy to replace.
Second campaign started as a direct response to Ukrainian drones with advanced image-based geolocation that were able to fly hundreds kilometers into Russia to hit oil refineries, this ongoing bombing campain targets energy (and heat) generating capabilities directly.
The self-styled smartest people in the world now have to cope with the fact that they really aren't.
... says the guy who posts mindless comments for RMB¥0.50 per comment... or because of budget cuts is it "two dimes" now? Do they even bother paying you, anymore? When was the last time you saw a paycheck? 🙄🤭
@@GeoScorpion Somebody's butthurt!
@@GeoScorpion Cringe. yes someone exercising Freedom of speech is obviously a Chinese spy 🤦🏿♂️
@@gcrav here have one more RMB¥0.50.
@@kaxin1367 Such butthurt as yours is music to my ears.
Interesting. T34 versus Tiger comes to mind
Russia is not the USSR. They don't have the industrial capacity.
@@B.D.E. I think you are under estimating their industrial capacity. The way they ramped up their shell production is a clear sign they have the machines and the manpower. Production of heavy machinery is also a sizeable portion of their industrial output. And when push comes to shove there is allways China. But feel free to point me to source material that proves your point.
I only skimmed through it, but I did not see any details (or actual facts or figures).
Unless I missed something.
I am getting sick of experts and all of their talk fests on TH-cam (esp Times Radio)
This business model creates unbelievable number of family's and personal tragedies 😢
If you’re fed up with “talk-fests” then why did you watch the video? Is anyone forcing you to watch CSIS and Times Radio content?
@@crogenynobody forced him that's why he skimmed it 😂
@ 16.03 Russia is using their old vehicles (BMT's, etc.). Once these vehicles are destroyed or considered unusable, will they be able to create more of these after the war? If so, will the supplies to remake them be sanctioned.
Do you have working brain?
To all those who feel sorry for wasting 1 hour 27 minutes 16 seconds of their lives, a short summary - "Well, who could have predicted this before? How good it is that we take no responsibility for our previous predictions! What a good thing!"
Yes indeed well said
Thanks
Indeed, any talk about the Russian invasion is like group therapy. Rather spend energy to implement 100% sanctions on Russia and on any country or company dealing with Russia. That goes for China as well, we complain about China and their desire to increase their influence in the world, and we keep trading and manufacturing in China. Once China reverse engineers our products we complain about theft of intellectual property rights
I was about to watch and then I saw your comment. Thank you.
You're dealing with Washington apparatchiks, just as disgusting as the Kremlin ones.
Considering the widespread adaption of scoters, golf carts and motorcycles on the frontlines, I say they are doing great.
By using those means, indicates Russia lacks armored vehicles to transport troops.
Why do nafo bootlickers cope so hard instead of having intelligent military tactics and strategy discussion?
@@mylessalmon2569
Armoured vehicles = warfare
Levy (trucks and other tps automobiles = transport
It indicates that both sides are using stop gaps and preserving heavier equipment
@@kaloyan2090 They may not have the equipment. Russia is pulling from Soviet supplies which are dwindling. Russia cannot manufacture enough to replace their losses. Russia has turned to China for motorcycles and the 4-wheel drive carts.
@@mylessalmon2569True. And North Korea for broken weapons and meat.
These expert have never spent any lenth of time in russia. Yet are expert of inside of russian state working.
How would you know?
_“These expert [sic] have never spent any lenth [sic] of time in russia [sic]”_
Maria Snegovaya is a native Russian speaker who graduated with a BA in Economics and Finance *in Moscow* in 2005. She then worked as a Research Assistant for five years at the Higher School of Economics *in Moscow.*
@@crogeny Samuel Bendett also speaks fluent Russian, according to the web.
@@crogeny who cares, I'm still waiting for anything said about Russia since the first weeks of their attack on Ukraine to actually be factual. A lot of Russians they have, haven't been there in years and typical turncoats - you get people who hate their Country, history, people, government or all..., a lot of them in West. I've not watched this, nor will I, likely full of shit but I actually could be wrong but wouldn't be surprised if any facts they do spew are spun out of context to suit whatever picture their painting.
@@JosephGibson
'I'll carefully assess the validity of the content of this video by not watching it.'
Thanks for your contribution.
Please run a low frequency cut filter on your audio before uploading, the host thudding the desk is incredibly disruptive to the listening experience.
Some or most"Russian expects" have never been to Russia even once
Probably don't even speak or read Russian so can't even work from primary sources 🙄
No, but they know how to spell 'expert.' Most have actually been to Russia. Who is it that you think hasn't been to Russia?
Great discussion very necessary infos
Are these original opinions? Because they sound very similar to points mentioned on other channels. Almost exactly.
The opinions and views expressed on this broadcast are those of the participating speakers. They are part of a larger community that analyzes the implications of global events and how governments can formulate policy to reach positive global outcomes related to those events. It is entirely possible that the opinions expressed on this broadcast align with the opinions of other subject matter experts in this area of global foreign policy.
I got through the first 3 minutes, but I'm not really interested in 'economists' who characterise military manufacturing growth as GDP / Economic growth. Military production is an overhead not growth. So a growing overhead means a shrinking of real economy, the engine that finances the Military production. An economy of 100% military production could grow tenfold every week, but the workers would starve to death by the end of the month. Is this just propaganda, naivety or something else?
Why argue about it ? - all we have to do is wait a while and we'll see how Russia gets on with this war. I can't see it making Russia into a 'Great Power', but let's see what happens.
Julian Assarge freed. The free world rejoices.
with conditions... I wonder what they are.
@@JosephGibsonNo Twitter after bedtime.
You folks better realize that China is already making things for the Russian war effort and from here on its going to grow.
China can produce millions of modern war drones and can field a 200,000,000 man fully equipped army.
Fascinating. Well worth the time.
We just need to look at what Russia did in WW2 when they moved all of their factories to behind the urals.
They are on a war footing and the whole economy can be directed towards it.
Whereas in the west we struggle to spend 3% of GDP on defence
But I do belive that the west can easily out produce Russia and with better weapons
It is going to be funny when cnn reports that all the russian cities are evacuating and they tell americans to shelter in place. the drones will wiiiinnn ww3.
US had defence budget nearly 900 billions
The equipment the west gave Russia was why they were victorious against Germany.
The US defense budget is an economic disaster. in fact, it's a positive feedback system which will either spark a catastrophic war or break us economically.
Yes, if:
- automobile factories, for instance, are retooled to produce simple tanks and aircraft
- the labor force in the armaments industry is significantly expanded by the inclusion of women and minorities
- supply chains are made more robust and less complex, relying heavily on domestic production and simple logistics networks
- the governments play a direct and extensive role in financing and directing production.
“Defense Industry,” is a misnomer and unnecessarily generous in speaking about Russian weapons design and manufacturing.
Very good discussion. I wish there was more about the triangle of Iran, China and Russia, with the emphasis on Iran; since Iran seems to have made great progress on copying some of the most common and high efficiency Jet Engines for applying them to the Gas Turbine applications and later to commercial jets that it might be developing on its own or in collaboration with the Sukhoi for fitting up the Russian Sukhoi commercial jets. Since modern high-efficiency large jet engines maybe a stumbling block for Russia's commercial aviation at this time.
When reading what you said, I was like where is this going when i get to Iran, China and Russia with emphasis on Iran until it spun off... I thought you were going to the trade routes from the Indian Ocean/Pacific going through Iran instead of the Red Sea. That is something we should focus on.
Half of the time you hear "unfortunately"....makes this Russian bot smile :)
😊
Especially nice to hear that from a Russian libtrd traitor who fantasizes about Russia breaking apart.
If you are helping yourself to cope, all is good. Keep going.
@@bardsamok9221 How unfortunately unfortunate that you can't come up with anything beyond "cope"
@@victorzvyagintsev1325 It's the correct word. Maybe you're trying so hard that you missed the rest of the sentence? Google: 'Coping mechanism'
“Two years after the war.”
The way is over?
he meant into*
Drones with AI had already became a changegame ammunition long time ago. I seems to me, the best Players are awaiting something to begin to demonstrate their best examples.
If so, this war is an another example of "strange war".
how smart are these people if what we are seeing in ukraine is a stalemate to them/could have been a better interview if the drone guy was absent
Maria has no clue what she is talking about.
when you boycot facing the armys on your mission you get to follow home the hunters prize you seek
That was so good, thank you.
The title of this video:
Self appointed military experts comment on war without battlefield combat experience
Most of us weapons are Soviet era as well. What you talking about, and the organization that count losses they all count more Ukrainian losses then russian, talk about that
Good luck! The West is slow to correct, and it appears very cautious in its response.
The West is treading carefully to avoid provoking an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. With Belarus now posturing in support of Russia the West is being careful to prevent a wider, regional conflict from happening.
Thank You.
Hu all this from a country where 30 % of the population does not have indoor plumbing
Bloody hell
The 30% love shitting in the forest with the bears!
Then they ride home on the bear!🤣🤣
Could it be that you are underexposed?
Not sure if its worth my time. Ill simply highlight that 1991 saw the collapse of the Russian defence industry as the bad advice saw it crumble.
Unlike western countries, these capabilities were mothballed, not that Russia is at war these old factories are again back in operation and you see the economy doing well.
In terms of completion with western defence industry who have held a monopoly over the last 30 years, i think there is no better example then the 6th gen fighter program that will see the fewest number of jets ever acquired in a new generational airplane which will be supplemented with highly disposable, highly advanced and very expensive in terms of acquisition and research.
Key point here id disposable, since when did anything in terms of the most advanced research become disposable?
The U-2 was grounded over a single lose, the lose of a F117 was considered a complete disaster.
So id be more worried about the western defence industry, rather then speculating on the Russian one considering once this war end and the sanctions are removed your going to be dealing with this giants Russian defence instrutry that is going to be exporting brand new, proven, military capabilities while the west is building disposable crap as if they following the China model of exports.
Maybe speculate the SU-57 is still in prototyping, likewise the Armada Tank.
What going to happen in 10 years when these two military capabilities are pitted against some crap the western military has concocted as "disposable" when they have more of the most restricted manufacturing bases in terms of expansion? Which we have seen with an inability to deal with shell shortages.
Should be looking in your own back yard and be critical there, before you sit on your high horse talking about a Russian defence industry that is outproducing the collective western world by themselves and actually making ground. Less about Russian capabilities and more related to the fact western defence is a joke that hasn't won a conflict since WW2 and just goes around killing people who can't really fight back inwhich they still lost too.
Western defence industry is incapable of producing the correct weapons to fight a conflict. Which ultimately stems from corruption of these companies who undermine democracy. It doesn't help that US politics is considering a pathway for the socialist construct of the military.
The military feeds you, houses you, makes your exercise and stay healthy. That sort of baseline failure of basic human function path wayed into decision making is a high degree of corruption based entirely on the networks they have created within this socialists construct.=
And you see this very poor level of discipline, in terms of saying in your own lane, when it comes to things like accountability of war-crimes.
Amount of American in Ukraine that say they don't take prisoners, basically admitting to murdering people who surrender.
That level of "the rules don't apply to me" is seen within the defence sector and when your talking about commercial competition.
Well enjoy your Chinese 6th gen jets... im sure many countries can't wait to get their hands on those AI wingmen to use in their own mass producted creations. Maybe drone swarms or soemthing aye? When can i expect to be able to find AI just lying around on the ground because its military based AI is disposable.
Wasn't worth the time, your analysis is trash
I'll sum up what you; just how much of our tax monies in the West is siphoned off by god knows who as it was in the Russian sphere? Yeah, we should be focusing more on our own backyard and investigating every single b*tch and d*ckhead enriching themselves at our expense.
Weird comment. The F117A was considered a successful aircraft overall and saw plenty of service in its lifetime from 1983 to 2008. Its talked about as as being one of the best light bombers ever. A total revolution over previous bombers that struggled particularly in the Vietnam theatre for example. F117 had a great mission success rate.
That one got shot down by a lucky shot that was never repeated was not a big deal for the USAF. They just tweaked a few things and it was never shot down again.
@@jonathanbowen3640 Id like to remind you that it was shot down in 1999, so yeah its shoot down was a big deal as within a decade the aircraft was considered obsolete.
I think you fail to grasp the concept of losing one aircraft in combat, and losing compounding aircraft in combat and what kind of capabilities that gives your enemy.
A good example of this is Iran with the RQ-170 drone, it wasn't shot down, they captured it fully intact. Inwhich they reversed engineered it now have a domestic product that is in use in Ukraine.
You may have heard of the Shahed drone.
Point i am getting at, is advanced research is NEVER considered disposable. It loss to the enemy is considered a political nightmare for policy makers as billions in research funds and handed over to your enemy.
So when we consider AI controlled wingmen, well i would call it blatant corruption and international interference at the highest levels of research and development. Coming from either the defence complex themselves, or within public office putting forward buzz word capabilities or its both and the complex is full of traitors.
I don't think you really grasp the whole concept of an AI piloted wingman in an atmosphere of jamming technology.
Your not merely losing manufacturing secrets like the honeycomb structure of the F117. But the software, i don't think you really grasp the concept that American coders are subpar when considering their counterparts who have much less processing power and have to optimize their code a hell of a lot more.
With hundreds of J-6 aircraft already set up as drones, a single AI windman that has the AI stolen could pilot an entire fleet of hundreds of obsolete fighter aircraft is swarm formations.
Quantity has a quality of its own and you just handed the people with quantity a pilot that can fly anything, everything, at the same time.
Has to be the dumbest conceptual thinking that has ever propagated within the defence industry. Even movies like Matrix and Terminator leaves questions like how did humanity lose air superiority?
There is something seriously wrong in American. Personally i think its NAZI ideology within the Military, this sense of national identity with this leeching off the tax payer because they are lazy and entitled.
They care more about themselves, then the nation and actively work to undermine both the country and its politics. All is pursuit of money and power.
Not grasping the growing threat of China, Globalists, NWO and Climate Fanatics that want to see the oil producing giant that is the USA crumble and banned from the energy market.
If this is the state of "expert opinion" in Washington, it's no surprise Joe Brandon is loosing his war in Ukraine 🙄 Slava Rossiya 🇷🇺
Give credit to the Indians on keeping Russia going as well. Modi just visited Moscow on July 8, 2024.
is the ticket bought by the congress of peoples deputies of russia, ilya ponomarevs batallions have this common current protocol
Everything is "unfortunate." 😂 😂 😂
ilya ponomarev and the congtress of the peoples deputies of russia has the protocol completed , the unfolding ofrequirements is occuring ,
That guy on the left keeps thumping the table, that is so annoying. What a racket.
Excellent panel, excellent content.
New fresh off the line production for Russia appears very good...far better than in the USA which can barely make 155mm howitzer ammo let alone M777 Howitzers. Still clear that Russian Industry is not at all prepared for their World War 3 nor is that moving in a direction that says Russia is becoming so either. This has as a consequence afforded rather not "smartly done"(slow) Western response an awesome amount of time to now change the situation on the ground materially in favor of Ukraine against Russia to include the remarkable changes in Warfare as a result of dirt cheap drones and cell phones/Starlink. I see no way for Russia to recover from their disaster #military_adventure in Ukraine for the time being (6 Months) as a consequence with quite the opposite now currently on the table #war_machine great subject a lot that is now knowable but best to start with a Map and how primitive Russian Military logistics in fact is.
arms trader jackpot init
Thanks for dealing with that matter. I Always ask myself If the politicians are enough aware of a possible Russian win with enourmous amounts of Refugees, enourmous follow Up costs of ramping Up Military and the immininent danger If Russia sitting Just behind Poland 🇺🇲🤝🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
The West is suffering from lack of strategic patience. Facts even here but also elsewhere with a more critical drill-down on the 3.5% nominal growth and on the refurb-heavy industry indicate Russia will hit a wall in keeping up with the attrition given the state of Soviet inventories in a year or two, tanks being among those running out first. In terms of wars of attrition against a world class power like Russia this is relatively fast, meaning if Ukraine can receive weapons at or over current rate a year or two, and keeps ramping up its own production, especially drones, Russia will be in a true predicament.
Interesting that you refer to Russian stockpiles as "Soviet" inventories. It is true that Putin's strategy is to outlast Western (American) interest in the war in Ukraine and it is true that without Western support Ukraine will not be able to support its defense. The political situation in the United States is also not encouraging for Ukraine with one political party supporting the war and the other against. European nations are less likely to lose interest as the conflict is on their doorstep and they should continue to prompt the United States to provide aid to Ukraine. Hopefully whatever administration is in power in the United States will recognize that allowing Ukraine to succumb to Russian aggression is not in the interest of the West and that failure to support Ukraine could incite Russia to commit aggression against European nations beyond Ukraine's borders.
@@csisIt is important to distinguish between Soviet and Russian stockpiles as the military vehicles industry in Russia utterly collapsed at the dissolution of the Soviet with the latter genuinely mass-producing in vast scale. 90s was an era of destruction and prihvatisatsiya where the small remnants of the once grand industry was moved to private, later nominally private hands. Even after Russia grew wealthier, the dysfunction and corruption never recovered this industry but to a very moderate level, Armata being a pinnacle of the problems there. And just like now, modernization of gear pulled from the bottomless Soviet storages probably has been responsible for at least some of the nominally new-produced models of Soviet designs. Models like T90 are more of an indication of new-production and even there one should be critical in estimating them as new-production from scratch. As the war shows us Chinese golf carts and Zündapp-like four-wheel motorcycles as well as T-62 turtle tanks and even exotic vehicles like the Ladoga doomsday IFV's, it is more revealing regarding the depth of the Soviet storage. Finally, as late-Soviet and post-Soviet individuals in Russia so aggressively sold critical parts of their armor (I have held in my hands a T72 night sight an ex-KGB guy was trying to sell), this combined with the progressively more not-cared units at the Soviet-era armor depots left to refurbish, and tightening sanctions, I believe the story of bottomless Russian resources is another ruse of Putin the West too eagerly swallows and hence him running out of production-worthy Soviet refurbishable material is closer than what we think. And that studies on this important topic need to be very very clever in seeing through his ruse, yet realistic. I like the study presented but think there is room for another *really* looking into the aspects I discussed, also as the situation constantly changes, e.g. with current sanctions possibly getting efficient. And repeat studies could ideally tell where next rounds of sanctions could be the most effective in tightening the noose around the Russian military-industrial base.
Refurbishing T-62s and T-55s into turtle tanks certainly will not be a long-term viable strategy for the Russians. Indeed a deeper study of Russian stockpiles could help target resources for sanction to make sanctions more effective - certainly a path that the US and European countries may want to follow to limit Russia's ability to wage conventional war. Thank you for your additional thoughts on this topic. The situation with the ex-KGB personnel attempting to sell you tank optics sounds like a fascinating story!
Shell companies, heh
Video starts at 1:54
yes, 'Breaking up Moscow empire is the only way to end its imperialism', And I don’t mean Putin´s imperialism, but Moscow imperialism in general , from Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky to Yeltsin and Dugin....
Same as breaking the USA her imperialism knows no bounds, she wants to control every country in the world, fighting wars in places far away from home
Delusional…who whisper this nonsense to u. Do u want the U.S. empire and Europe to break into pieces
Hello! Thanks for the analysis. Should I believe this? After all the earlier talking heads believed the second best army in Ukraine would take over in less than a year. Both the army and the TH's failed. Russia has a disposable soldier program! Regards
The Russian economy is booming in a phenomenon not seen since the US in the 1940s. Shall I be so bold as to say Keynesian military economics. However i feel that Russia may face the same problem as the US. How do you stop fighting when war has become so profitable.
Here in Vietnam we know all about it.
Russian economy is booming 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Thanks, I appreciate such programs.
QUESTION: What percentage of the population of Russia understand they are actually fighting Ukraine, and that the Ukrainians are fighting in the degree that the Ukrainians are?
QUESTION: What is the "heartstrings" of the Russians for their Ukrainians neighbors/brothers?
QUESTION: Do the public Russians have the concept they are at war, or do they still have ignorance of the degree of deaths on both sides?
It seems like the issue of the Russian's population understanding of how costly the war is in terms of lives of lost Russians, and lost Ukrainians (neighbors, brothers) would play a huge huge factor in the overall END to the conflict.
Do you have research on this angle, or not the purview of your think tank?
The obvious best counter attack would be to get the Russian public to become turned against this war, and dry up support for killing Ukrainians and losing their citizens lives fighting there.
I'll answer below on separate posts
1 Percent that know they are at waaar with ukraine and not the us? The same percent that watch cnn
2. Why does russia care about life? The same reason the us didn't care about Iraq liffe. Many citizens in both countries
3. Do the russians know the west is trying regime change on them? Yep.
4b. Do the russians know the def count? No. But the cnn russians know it is over 50 million so far.
made it 10 minutes, still no substance if you follow the war.
The russians are running out of wire brushes scrapping and brushing 50 years of rust off all those ancient chunks of metal they inherited from the old bust soviet empire 🤣🤣🤣🤣
I did not have to watch this babble to summarize it for you: if russian defense industry is still functioning, then we are not serious about winning this conflict.
Ok, so Russia's economy is growing at 3.6% Because it is at a war economy! Any state that is spending the funds that Russia is doing now would have a growing economy. I have seen estimates of 30%-45% of GNP spent on the war.
What about the inflation rate? Also, estimates of 16%
Now, what is this nonsense that Maria Sneogvaya is saying? Where is her balanced objectivity??
How do you say you are Russian, without saying you are Russian?
✔️
One innovation is the ‘glide cocoon rocket pod’, where some poor fellow gets inside a pod and gets slingshot out whereupon a little rocket accelerates him via gps glide and like base jump parachutes at the end and he simply hatches out with all his kit.
If accuracy was decent they could land safely in good spots.
If there’s mobile launchers it’s like loading up artillery except with poor wretches in little re usable plastic or metal planes like theme park ride styles, they could even have macabre humour by painting over the camo, like the ‘red baron’ or ‘led zeppelin’ mig ufo
You don't need a person to guide a bomb.
You just described their space program.
'To the moooon!'
@ImaginationDeranged ...
And then diversity came up as a critical russian disadvantage😂😂😂
Insufferable to listen.. so many bias
I imagine they come up with this report using an otjie board. Political science is opinion not science but opinion. Engineers would be better qualified to analyze military production since they know math
For some reason all sources are ukranian. Must be true, say the swammp
That's quite the imagination you have
It is ouija board, moron
This guy says "Uh" waaay too much.
That’s a really weird statement Russias economy is growing by 3 percent. Yes but inflation is 16% so that’s not a lot of actual growth. It’s just everything costs more
the trojan horse of moscow has names dugin , putin lavrov peskov
victory looks like the sbu version of sas film in russia finding putin and prooving its over for him
the trojan horse of moscow
Slava Rossiya 🇷🇺 😂 😂 😂 #FUkraine
God bless to you if trump comes to power…..
So just get on hear and say you dont have a clue and all this other bs talk is mute ! YOU DONT KNOW DUH 😮
All the military types have been anticipating some resurgence of U.S. 'industrial base' for the Ukraine adventure, as in 'arsenal of democracy'. This issue has lingered
near public dialog since the GFC discussions on loss of U.S. auto industry. We are employing the means we have ... sanctions and surveillance .
Very competent indiviuals totally focusing on just one side of the issue, exept for the last couple of minutes. Economy stupid! The russian economy take a massive beating right now; the currancy, inflation and the revenues from oil and gas. The strong economic figures right now reflect a boost from the war economy, not from fundamentals and is not going to last for long. 2026 Russia will have problem to continue the war; Ukraine has no alternative...
2 more weeks
The report takes Russian output data at face value (despite it being a weapon in an information war), underestimates visually confirmed Russian tank losses in 2023 by c.20% and references output without giving numbers (the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimate new build T90-M production might reach 90p.a. in 2025 up from 40 pre invasion, so just 50 more tanks!). Then there's the obvious point that Russia's drone warfare is based on Iranian drones and assembling Chinese kits. For whatever reason there's a stink here of better to exaggerate than to underestimate.
Turkey must be punished with sanctions
i wonder if i should try, yet. haha.
😅😂😂😂
😂😂😂😂😂
Russian propaganda is the most powerful weapon of this criminal regime...
It is Russia's most greatest weakness and, ultimately, its most fatal flaw!
Bla,bla,bla !! Pathetic propaganda !!!
crimea is a lost cause for putin , his expenses lost in airdefence and naval capbility and lost of logistical supply security of territory ,crimea will not be a holiday location next summer for muscovites
Its soooo painful for these Neoliberals sad reports of growth and their problems of expanding 😂😂😂