Toronto Condo Developers are starting to re-price and incentivize inventory Thanks for watching & please sub (please!) New condos in Toronto: precondo.ca/new-condos-toronto/ Email me: jordon@precondo.ca
"Hopefully the government will step in and provide more incentives to developers"? Evidence that the market has broken. Incentives are akin to bailouts. They erode trust over time and falsely support broken markets, causing larger future crashes because the market foundations are not organic. TREB, their Realtor army, and their debt pushing mortgage brokers will bury themselves as trust in the industry continues to erode and the aging population all starts selling their family homes. Wait on it. Do not give these people your money, they have sat on the pipeline of your savings with straws inside, sucking your value for too long. Think outside of Toronto. Way outside. That's the path to wealth.
@@RRRenegade5if you have the money you should be buying existing inventory. Precon only really makes sense if you are short on cash or aren't financeable at the moment. Perfect example is a newly graduated lawyer/doctor who will have a high salary and down-payment in 3 to 5 years but doesn't have a great salary history today.
Coffin apartments for almost a million dollars, what a sad world we live in. 500Sqft is nothing a kitchen is 200 bedroom 300 maybe put the toilet in the kitchen so you can use 1 sink to wash your hands and dishes.
If you want value for money go inland from the Space Coast in Florida 3 bdm 2 bath attached garage 2000 Sq. Ft. Under air on a quarter acres lot city water septic system for around 90k. Plus you have ring side seats for the night launches at Kennedy Space Center. Lots of tech jobs military suppliers semiconductor mfg. Etc.
There are a couple of things that have improved for condo developers. Bill,109 has shortened the approval times for rezoning and site plan to 3 months which will save tons of carrying costs for developers
I got my 1650 square foot condo 7 years ago for 425k in Richmond hill. I’m so grateful but always wondered why prices were so crazy. This is the first time I’ve heard the breakdown on new build cost.
@@davidrockefeller2007 Yes, bigger condos have a small price per square foot in any market due to high maint and property tax. The amount you are saving on your mortgage, you are paying with maintenance and property tax. Also, majority of buyers can't afford monthly payments of maint and prop tax over $1000. Hence, I often see larger units slashing prices to sell, especially in a market like this.
On top of the Altus prices after you add the land costs you also need to add soft costs such as consultant fees, development approvals financing costs, marketing, and contingency. On the revenue side, you have to adjust for HST so you typically end up with an overall cost to build of $1,100 sq ft and a net revenue of about the same. You cannot make money as a developer at this present time. Maybe in a couple of years when revenues catch up with the latest construction cost increases. The reason we see so many projects under construction is because the developer sold the units at the peak of the market and were able to get construction financing but many purchasers now are not able to qualify for a mortgage and will not be able to close. It is a huge mess
Jordan we need more uploads brotha! You’ve got a great channel here. Are you going to the big multifamily conference in Toronto that Jordan Belfort’s gonna be at next month? (may 2024)
Striking. The condo construction costs were $530 construction per Altus ($425 at 80% usable area) + $125 city fees + 245 for high quality + $200 land (Summerhill, St. James) = $1,100 per sq ft. A wood-framed row townhouse is $250 construction per Altus + $85 city fees + $100 land (range for Yorkville, Leaside, Danforth Village) = $435 per sq ft. So why don't they get built? Zoned out? Wouldn't you rather a townhouse to a condo?
On construction costs, I assume that is materials + labor. If nobody is building, wouldn't both material and labor costs go down? That should alleviate a lot of the costs.
Not sure you could call a price correction a panic. Also not sure these drops are enough given inflation and interest rates are still high. If inflation and interest rates begin to fall this year then developers should be fine long term as they will benefit on the cost side when shovels hit the ground.
very informative video I love it. Condo pricings. I really encourage you to do a another video episode regard to condo maintenance fees! Through my experience and associating with property management companies I noticed, and I witnessed a lot of managers are stealing money from the condo. Corporations, through subcontractors. ! subcontractors have to bride them 10 percentage to 15 percent for them to get the job contract job example access, control, CCTV cameras, plumbing any repairs. We have did audit, to audit,security, audits, and private investigation regarding to this matter, bribe and corruption, hole 🕳️ stealing the money without the condo units owners knowing ! ✌️
Very insightful. I was lucky or smart (?) to buy pre-con 2016. Fast forward to today. Land $200 + Toronto $125 + const'n $600 is at bare minimum 50% more than the original cost per sq ft just 7 years ago. It's no wonder that first time buyers are either looking at a tiny 1br or staying home with their parents.
Jordon over at Royal York Rd and Judson St on the east side of Royal York next to the train tracks is a condo building that was started and went bankrupt sold and restarted and bankrupt this has happened 3 times there has to be a serious problem with this project could you shine some light on this situation it was started like 5 years ago when the market was hot.
Great Vid. Very informative. Pretty much the 416 aka Toronto somehow needs drastic price adjustments otherwise I don’t see anything selling in the future even with interest rates cuts :/
Yes, but a company cannot continue selling at a loss. If they do, they go out of business, so costs set the BASELINE in general. After a certain level of profit, then, and only then, does that supply and demand kick in.
If the cost is too high, the developers won’t be building. This will lead to less supply, which will lead to more demand than there is supply. In turn, leading higher costs. So in a way costs, indirectly influence prices.
It just dawned on me why Toronto has a worse problem than many other cities. Think about centrality to the downtown core. If I need to be 90 minutes from downtown, I can only look in a 180 degree sweep, because Toronto is boundaried on one side by Lake Ontario. If Toronto were land-locked, you could spread out in 360 degrees, effectively giving you access to twice as much land within your commute needs. One other consideration is that Canadians refuse to give up on the idea of living and owning in the core. In major, established, European cities (London, Paris, etc.), normal people never own in the core. They live two hours away.
You have to keep looking further to realize the other issue and that's that southern Ontario is an island. We're surrounded by water, the French language (an economic and social barrier) and northern undeveloped territory that's far from basic services normal people want access to and has worse weather. And southern Ontario is where the majority of Canadians (new and existing) want to live ... So anyone looking to get out of the GTA and move into other areas surrounding it is only contributing to the growing issue plaguing the region.
What does this mean for people who have already purchased? Are they locked in at the previous high price? or would these new prices be adjusted for them? 😮
Canada on majority currently is not in utilization of the free-market. Majority, they are currently in utilization of a capped market. It's capped by the level of knowledge pertaining to the citizens. The more unknowledgeable the citizens are the more problems occur on the market
Would like to see N. American market drops another 50% to have equilibrium back to an affordable level for youngsters. Just Toronto and Vancouver alone, nearly 75% of condos are invested to rent instead of moved in by owners as prime living quarters.
I wouldnt pay more than 1000 a sqft...anywhere. Especially east end. Sherbourne and King St E is near the blighted moss park. A very poverty stricken area. You might suggest, "its being redeveloped'. But honestly. The majority of drug rehab services and homeless shelters ARE in this area. Its never going to leave. No other community will accept a shelter opening. It is very difficult to get that type of zoning. So many parts of Queen St E are also run down heritage sites. Go for a bike ride there. Nothing but closed, for lease, or for sale signs. Another data point you might want to provide. Is number of units coming ONLINE within the condo development / units sold by month. Typically a majority of those 'investor' units are sold with the assumption they will assign it before closing. So based on the sales out numbers. There are some SERIOUS bag holders right now. Especially since a huge wave of units are coming online in the 2H of 2024. Lastly. Economy is on a weird tilt. Country is pushing the breaks on immigration. GDP numbers will show that in 1-2 years. Consumer sales will reflect that too. I expect some very hard times over the next 10 years.
What os happening to those who were approved for mortgage for precon 4,5 years ago at a very low rate ! Now that i t raye is so high but their income is still the same...
1700 to 1500 per sq FT?? Even 1200 per sq ft. LOL. Oh boy people have been royally screwed. Only 23 yrs ago it was 150-175 per sq ft. 800 to 900% increase in two and half decades. Has anybody seen 900% in wage increases? LOL. Ok the construction costs have skyrocketed in the past 5 yrs. I'd be curious to see the breakdown of why. What percentage is land transfer taxes, development fees, GST? Labour? Materials? Land costs? It really looks like the gov'ts are a big problem here. I know a lot of the materials have corrected so labour is the next to be hit. And this is where the pain comes in. The developer and their suppliers can't expect their prices to continue to soar. As I look at the treasuries, I honestly don't see any substantial cuts coming in 2024 in Canada. There will probably be a couple small ones. The treasuries haven't budged much and they are still inverted. People need to very very careful expecting substantial int rate cuts. The BOC is stuck in a very difficult position now and cutting aggressively is not in the cards. And quite frankly, condo and home prices haven't corrected enough to warrant int rate cuts.
A developer who can’t build for the cost of resale has a broken business model. Over-paying for pre-construction only made sense when values were increasing reliably. For investors (not speculators) the resale market is the only one to seriously consider.
Tulip mania strikes again! When Your Wife Loves Tulips by Frans Kuiper Never try catching a falling knife, Delay buying and ignore the wife, Drowning in debt will rob you of life, Trust in your instincts to avoid strife.
Depends on location! A former gas station at Dundas and Church sold for $75 million. Price is off of buildable square foot rather than the raw size of the lot
Why would anyone buy per-construction if the prices are not lower? There is literally no benefit for the consumer. This country needs to figure out how to get these construction costs down.
I don’t understand: why is the used inventory so cheap (relatively speaking)? This seems like a ticking time bomb, where the lack of demand in pre-con will cause a stall in construction, further amplifying the lack of supply in the housing market. Meaning in the coming few years sale prices soaring even higher for both pre-con and used properties. I understand your point of saying “why would you buy pre-con if you can buy used”. But would you agree, that even buying pre-con right now is better than not buying at all? It just seems like it’s early, but it will be worth it eventually.
Big issue is buying something that actually gets built. With these kinds of numbers projects get canceled or developers go bankrupt and sales get canceled.
Markets always find a balance. The massive immigration to Canada is deceptive since those people are usually minimum wage workers in our gig economy. They can’t afford our insane prices.
What is going to happen in the much hyped Forma and The King etc selling for 2000$ They sure lost their shirts Never go for too much Hyped projects. They always turn to major dissapointmwnts
are you going to talk about all the extra deaths and how all that will add to supply? I did not hear anything about that. 158K in extra deaths in just the US in the last year. places all over the world are opening up inquiries into it so....
Your research is well done. You seem to acknowledge the laws of supply and demand for existing condo product. In short, when demand falls in the facing of rising supply, asking prices fall. However, you don't seem to acknowledge the same universal laws for pre-con construction. Everything in RE works in slow motion. If speculators stop buying pre-con, less building will take place (demand). If that happens, there will be less demand for labour, and materials. As pre-con projects dry up, the cost of labour to build them WILL fall... the cost of materials to build them WILL fall... the cost to design them WILL fall... the city WILL eventually lower development fees to spur construction... we are already seeing falling interest rates making it cheaper now than 6 months ago, to finance construction. They will fall further. The laws of supply and demand prevail not just for end users, but for developers as well. You make only passing reference to this universal law and then dismiss it as unlikely. It is not only likely - it is inevitable.
Everything would be aggregated as long as the compensation increases. As everybody requires a house. But in order for compensation to rise, many will need to get educated on how the economy really works. As a pose to leaning on the knowledge given by the current education system which has proven to be loose for the public and a gain for those who hoard wealth in unjustified domains
Based on the insightful presentation in this video, I, as a Toronto real estate investor, would like to share my prediction. The current slow construction pace is likely to result in a price increase. I understand that some of you may have concerns and discussions about interest rates all day. However, I believe the rates will go down both this year and the next. Contrary to hopes for a decrease, I anticipate that prices will not decline. This is not only due to factors like city land costs but also because the global landscape has led to disruptions in the housing supply. I foresee the price per square foot being around $1500 in Hamilton and Milton, and between $1900-2100 in Toronto. I apologize if this prediction challenges your expectations. Having been in Toronto for over 25 years, I recall my initial condo investments where I paid $120 per square foot.
Investing in condos is stupidity. It is merely a place of residence. I understand the relationship between pre construction and liquidity. However to operate on this flaw as a philosophy is unnatural and so puts you in a position of eventual loss, as good as gambling. Because in a healthy economy, everybody is able to afford new homes. Now I know this is a reality many may not have a point of reference to, but with some simple math you too can see this. Right now there is a block in resources, thus all that must be done is to overcome this block at the root so as to never deal with such again. The problem is that many investors choose to deal with the block on a surface level, hoping and betting for a different result. Plus they also regard this block as an opportunity for them to come back into a trade and capitalize again, as they have now become familiar with the cycles. Then some who have done well monetarily speaking, go out and offer courses to invite more to build on this Flimsy philosophy, in turn filling the educational streams with sewage that then comes back onto the economy as toxic sludge. That's when the finger games begin. And ultimately taxes increase cuz nobody in this equation is willing to take responsibility for the mess
Now investing in the development of condos. Completely different field. But for that you must study the demands of the public carefully. The problem in Canada is that demands are not accurately met, it is met just to say 'it's met'. There's seems to be no care for what the buyers are looking for, it shows that much is motivated by monetary profit. As a pose to overall
Hmm, it looks like the Bumsteads will continue to be undercut by the deep-pocketed developers. They might have to sell that heavily-HELOCed "investment condo" of theirs at a substantial loss and/or, sell their primary residence to pony up for any monies owing.
No, giving you a gift for taking it for free is a real "slashing" 😉 Seriously man, won't you ever realize that nobody is going to hand you anything at their expense? 80% off 😂🤣😂
Expect Toronto Condos to go further down. With new taxes being introduced it doesn't make any financial sense to invest. Invest GTA or other parts of Ontario.
Unfortunately, you are absolutely right being suspicious. Construction is a very shady industry with a lot of fraud and false reporting. Declaring expensive materials while using the cheapest possible is pretty common.
absolutely what worse is that developers use all these manipulate data to give off a nice sales pitch to the agent and agent thought they know a lot without experiencing it
What nut would like to like at Yonge or downtown?! Toronto became the 3rd worst city in the world for traffic. And … it will get worse. Biking? No, thank you.
To whom they are going to rent these unsold units, and for how much? Let hope all these new Canadians and sociology graduates will like up to snap these cheap rentals for $1500/month😂
They would rather rent it to international students, 4 per room, $300 each, packing 12 students in a 2-bedroom apartment. And these 12 students will rent their hallway to 1-2 more students 🤣
Good, now maybe the developers won’t trash all our heritage buildings that they are doing in Toronto, build them in the 905…. Also, many people don’t know condos are a shaky investment and the first properties to fall in bad times. During the pandemic when when the housing market exploded in Toronto and worldwide, condos dropped, like you could get a 2 bdrm at Yonge and Eglinton for 600K, so buyer beware…🏦
so construction costs range from 635 to 735. land prices should be lower, say 150. we're talking 800 for luxury. it can be done for 1K psf, especially avg housing. bottom line: RE ppl still being greedy af
It would be all very reasonable if we were not talking about whopping 7 years it takes in Canada to build a high rise apartment building. 7 years man, compare it with 1.5 year it takes in China. Canadian bureaucracy is so sloooooooooow 🐌 Making 100% profit over 1.5 would be a dream business. Making 100% over 7 years - no so much, like 14% annually?
I can tell you from tons of first hand experience that the resale market has picked up in terms of days on market, Demand exceeding supply but this has not reflected in a price increase yet. It will shortly with a slight increase in price early this yr in central condos
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The level of research you conduct is what I think most new home buyers naively expect from their realtors but sure do deserve.
Jordons the GOAT thats why !
"Hopefully the government will step in and provide more incentives to developers"? Evidence that the market has broken. Incentives are akin to bailouts. They erode trust over time and falsely support broken markets, causing larger future crashes because the market foundations are not organic.
TREB, their Realtor army, and their debt pushing mortgage brokers will bury themselves as trust in the industry continues to erode and the aging population all starts selling their family homes. Wait on it. Do not give these people your money, they have sat on the pipeline of your savings with straws inside, sucking your value for too long.
Think outside of Toronto. Way outside. That's the path to wealth.
If you are buying a condo for that kinda $$$ right now you are insane.
Or money isn't an issue
I called my friends insane at 700 , 800, 1000, 1200
@@RRRenegade5if you have the money you should be buying existing inventory. Precon only really makes sense if you are short on cash or aren't financeable at the moment. Perfect example is a newly graduated lawyer/doctor who will have a high salary and down-payment in 3 to 5 years but doesn't have a great salary history today.
@@kelvintai1375what about 1600 and 2000?😂
My friend won a bit of money and she's moving to Costa Rica. Why invest iinto this kind of market
900k for a one bedroom? Madness
And near Jarvis? Ain't that where the crackhead hang out?
I hate how everything is so small. things that are a closets are now called a "den". a 2-walled "den" is now a bedroom? wtf.
I cant believe Hamilton is $1k-ft!!
Geez i remember $1k/ft was considered impossible to sell here!!!!
Plus they probably have lots of bedbugs…😂
Coffin apartments for almost a million dollars, what a sad world we live in. 500Sqft is nothing a kitchen is 200 bedroom 300 maybe put the toilet in the kitchen so you can use 1 sink to wash your hands and dishes.
If you want value for money go inland from the Space Coast in Florida 3 bdm 2 bath attached garage 2000 Sq. Ft. Under air on a quarter acres lot city water septic system for around 90k. Plus you have ring side seats for the night launches at Kennedy Space Center. Lots of tech jobs military suppliers semiconductor mfg. Etc.
Exactly Toronto GTA is complete waste of money prices need to come down minimum 30%-40% 2007 2008 levels we need more inventory and FAST
dont even think thats possible@@unbuzzd
Trudeau
@@charleson5918 just watch the leveraged underwater mortgages start flooding the market.
Plus add in condo fees, which are what, $1000 a month.
I remember when it was 200 a sq/ft. I just wish I'd bought then.
Me too.
What a great video! Some real data and argument. I believe it, and it makes sense, but most of the people have no clue. Well done!!
There are a couple of things that have improved for condo developers. Bill,109 has shortened the approval times for rezoning and site plan to 3 months which will save tons of carrying costs for developers
Great analysis and stats, thanks!
I got my 1650 square foot condo 7 years ago for 425k in Richmond hill. I’m so grateful but always wondered why prices were so crazy. This is the first time I’ve heard the breakdown on new build cost.
whats the maintenance on that property?
@@Stck_verflws it’s now like $1020 monthly
Sorry, $1050, I also under paid for the unit by $80k
@@davidrockefeller2007 Yes, bigger condos have a small price per square foot in any market due to high maint and property tax. The amount you are saving on your mortgage, you are paying with maintenance and property tax. Also, majority of buyers can't afford monthly payments of maint and prop tax over $1000. Hence, I often see larger units slashing prices to sell, especially in a market like this.
@@Stck_verflws My friend saw condo in Missisauga 1550 sq foot maintenance 2100$ .. just crazy
On top of the Altus prices after you add the land costs you also need to add soft costs such as consultant fees, development approvals financing costs, marketing, and contingency. On the revenue side, you have to adjust for HST so you typically end up with an overall cost to build of $1,100 sq ft and a net revenue of about the same. You cannot make money as a developer at this present time. Maybe in a couple of years when revenues catch up with the latest construction cost increases. The reason we see so many projects under construction is because the developer sold the units at the peak of the market and were able to get construction financing but many purchasers now are not able to qualify for a mortgage and will not be able to close. It is a huge mess
Jordan we need more uploads brotha! You’ve got a great channel here. Are you going to the big multifamily conference in Toronto that Jordan Belfort’s gonna be at next month? (may 2024)
People buying these are crazy, I have no idea how people can pay those prices and still afford to live. This market is criminally bad.
Striking. The condo construction costs were $530 construction per Altus ($425 at 80% usable area) + $125 city fees + 245 for high quality + $200 land (Summerhill, St. James) = $1,100 per sq ft.
A wood-framed row townhouse is $250 construction per Altus + $85 city fees + $100 land (range for Yorkville, Leaside, Danforth Village) = $435 per sq ft.
So why don't they get built? Zoned out? Wouldn't you rather a townhouse to a condo?
On construction costs, I assume that is materials + labor.
If nobody is building, wouldn't both material and labor costs go down?
That should alleviate a lot of the costs.
Fantastic video. Thanks.
Well done, excellent information and presentation.
Not sure you could call a price correction a panic. Also not sure these drops are enough given inflation and interest rates are still high. If inflation and interest rates begin to fall this year then developers should be fine long term as they will benefit on the cost side when shovels hit the ground.
Great video bud
You had construction costs mapped at as twice what they were in 2017. Are those construction costs inclusive of development taxes and fees?
very informative video I love it. Condo pricings. I really encourage you to do a another video episode regard to condo maintenance fees! Through my experience and associating with property management companies I noticed, and I witnessed a lot of managers are stealing money from the condo. Corporations, through subcontractors. ! subcontractors have to bride them 10 percentage to 15 percent for them to get the job contract job example access, control, CCTV cameras, plumbing any repairs. We have did audit, to audit,security, audits, and private investigation regarding to this matter, bribe and corruption, hole 🕳️ stealing the money without the condo units owners knowing ! ✌️
Hard to find construction labour when they cannot buy or rent what they build or tents take most of pay.
Top notch quality, keep it up
Very insightful. I was lucky or smart (?) to buy pre-con 2016. Fast forward to today. Land $200 + Toronto $125 + const'n $600 is at bare minimum 50% more than the original cost per sq ft just 7 years ago. It's no wonder that first time buyers are either looking at a tiny 1br or staying home with their parents.
It was luck. Sorry.
Very nice illustration. Good Video
Jordon over at Royal York Rd and Judson St on the east side of Royal York next to the train tracks is a condo building that was started and went bankrupt sold and restarted and bankrupt this has happened 3 times there has to be a serious problem with this project could you shine some light on this situation it was started like 5 years ago when the market was hot.
Great Vid. Very informative. Pretty much the 416 aka Toronto somehow needs drastic price adjustments otherwise I don’t see anything selling in the future even with interest rates cuts :/
Either wages need to go up by a factor of 10, or prices need to come down. Costs don't dictate prices. Supply and demand does.
Yes, but a company cannot continue selling at a loss. If they do, they go out of business, so costs set the BASELINE in general. After a certain level of profit, then, and only then, does that supply and demand kick in.
If the cost is too high, the developers won’t be building. This will lead to less supply, which will lead to more demand than there is supply. In turn, leading higher costs. So in a way costs, indirectly influence prices.
Costs absolutely dictate prices in new construction. Resale prices can come down as much as the the market demands.
@@Precondo Prices will go down when the federal and provincial governments get back to building subsidized housing like it used to.
@jamesbrennenman8671 not a good idea. T
The information given in these videos is simply unbelievable..
appreciate that Howard!
It just dawned on me why Toronto has a worse problem than many other cities. Think about centrality to the downtown core. If I need to be 90 minutes from downtown, I can only look in a 180 degree sweep, because Toronto is boundaried on one side by Lake Ontario. If Toronto were land-locked, you could spread out in 360 degrees, effectively giving you access to twice as much land within your commute needs. One other consideration is that Canadians refuse to give up on the idea of living and owning in the core. In major, established, European cities (London, Paris, etc.), normal people never own in the core. They live two hours away.
In London, Paris the transit system is night and day, no? Living 2 hours outside the core is a no-go here.
And because the protected Green Belt around the GTA restricts the rest of it
@@msveevee07ridiculous comment!
Vancouver is worse, were trapped in a bubble.
You have to keep looking further to realize the other issue and that's that southern Ontario is an island. We're surrounded by water, the French language (an economic and social barrier) and northern undeveloped territory that's far from basic services normal people want access to and has worse weather. And southern Ontario is where the majority of Canadians (new and existing) want to live ... So anyone looking to get out of the GTA and move into other areas surrounding it is only contributing to the growing issue plaguing the region.
would love to get your assessment on Gehry's forma
What does this mean for people who have already purchased? Are they locked in at the previous high price? or would these new prices be adjusted for them? 😮
This is the biggest country in the world.!!! Nice to see free market system working well!!
Canada on majority currently is not in utilization of the free-market. Majority, they are currently in utilization of a capped market. It's capped by the level of knowledge pertaining to the citizens. The more unknowledgeable the citizens are the more problems occur on the market
Top quality content.
Well an agent can say now you are practically buying tomorrows
Condo at todays price
Would like to see N. American market drops another 50% to have equilibrium back to an affordable level for youngsters. Just Toronto and Vancouver alone, nearly 75% of condos are invested to rent instead of moved in by owners as prime living quarters.
I wouldnt pay more than 1000 a sqft...anywhere. Especially east end. Sherbourne and King St E is near the blighted moss park. A very poverty stricken area. You might suggest, "its being redeveloped'. But honestly. The majority of drug rehab services and homeless shelters ARE in this area. Its never going to leave. No other community will accept a shelter opening. It is very difficult to get that type of zoning. So many parts of Queen St E are also run down heritage sites. Go for a bike ride there. Nothing but closed, for lease, or for sale signs. Another data point you might want to provide. Is number of units coming ONLINE within the condo development / units sold by month. Typically a majority of those 'investor' units are sold with the assumption they will assign it before closing. So based on the sales out numbers. There are some SERIOUS bag holders right now. Especially since a huge wave of units are coming online in the 2H of 2024. Lastly. Economy is on a weird tilt. Country is pushing the breaks on immigration. GDP numbers will show that in 1-2 years. Consumer sales will reflect that too. I expect some very hard times over the next 10 years.
Resale always wins ;) (also Milton precon lol)
This guys assumptions are pretty good 😮
What os happening to those who were approved for mortgage for precon 4,5 years ago at a very low rate ! Now that i t raye is so high but their income is still the same...
1700 to 1500 per sq FT?? Even 1200 per sq ft. LOL. Oh boy people have been royally screwed. Only 23 yrs ago it was 150-175 per sq ft. 800 to 900% increase in two and half decades. Has anybody seen 900% in wage increases? LOL.
Ok the construction costs have skyrocketed in the past 5 yrs. I'd be curious to see the breakdown of why. What percentage is land transfer taxes, development fees, GST? Labour? Materials? Land costs? It really looks like the gov'ts are a big problem here. I know a lot of the materials have corrected so labour is the next to be hit. And this is where the pain comes in. The developer and their suppliers can't expect their prices to continue to soar.
As I look at the treasuries, I honestly don't see any substantial cuts coming in 2024 in Canada. There will probably be a couple small ones. The treasuries haven't budged much and they are still inverted. People need to very very careful expecting substantial int rate cuts. The BOC is stuck in a very difficult position now and cutting aggressively is not in the cards. And quite frankly, condo and home prices haven't corrected enough to warrant int rate cuts.
Imagine spending $500k on a 1 bedrooms condo … 💀
A developer who can’t build for the cost of resale has a broken business model.
Over-paying for pre-construction only made sense when values were increasing reliably.
For investors (not speculators) the resale market is the only one to seriously consider.
Condo prices are over the top, too expensive.
Keep up the ADHD and charts!
Still 30% over priced lol
Not 30% overpriced it is 50% overpriced
Tulip mania strikes again!
When Your Wife Loves Tulips
by Frans Kuiper
Never try catching a falling knife,
Delay buying and ignore the wife,
Drowning in debt will rob you of life,
Trust in your instincts to avoid strife.
The bubble will burst one day. I don't want to watch the fallout.
Pray for a solution. In the Name of King Yeshua
Blackstone T.O. deal?
How much would the price range for an acre of residential land in Toronto be?
Depends on location! A former gas station at Dundas and Church sold for $75 million.
Price is off of buildable square foot rather than the raw size of the lot
@@GraemeHein Was that the ESSO station at the NE corner of the intersection?
That is absolutely insane.
When did this happen?
I have purchased 6 1000 sq ft condo units in London at just $300 a sq ft.
You’ll rent them all to students who will stop paying you, and then you can’t evict them?
I may follow suit.
Aren't all those developers, brokers and investors ever so lucky that margin calls aren't a thing! Because if they were, well...
Anything on sherbourne is not great
Not true. Sherbourne is bad between Queen and Gerrard
You know nothing about the King/Sherbourne area. Further north, sure...but not the whole street. Sherbourne also goes into Rosedale.
735 bucks per buildable sq ft!! Time to get out of this business...
Why would anyone buy per-construction if the prices are not lower? There is literally no benefit for the consumer. This country needs to figure out how to get these construction costs down.
Great stuff of 544 sq-ft for 900K. Great product indeed!! Make you argument… I pass
I expect a rate increase this year.
Where is Samantha Odo?
1475/sq foot hahahahah get out of here. It's not going to cut it.
"slashing"....12%
"sky is falling"...14%
"The Rapture"...17%
adjusted canadian house prices going back to 2001 levels. prepare yourselves accordingly.
The prices don’t match the incomes, they will fall further. Even if they lower interest rates, nobody has any money.
No..
1k a sqft in thw gta is bonkers
I can sort of understand the crazy prices in Vancouver. Ocean, mountains, rain forest climate. But Ontario? Sure, lots of people. But . . . Ontario?
I don’t understand: why is the used inventory so cheap (relatively speaking)? This seems like a ticking time bomb, where the lack of demand in pre-con will cause a stall in construction, further amplifying the lack of supply in the housing market. Meaning in the coming few years sale prices soaring even higher for both pre-con and used properties.
I understand your point of saying “why would you buy pre-con if you can buy used”. But would you agree, that even buying pre-con right now is better than not buying at all? It just seems like it’s early, but it will be worth it eventually.
Big issue is buying something that actually gets built. With these kinds of numbers projects get canceled or developers go bankrupt and sales get canceled.
Condo prices are stupid. True value is probably $300 maybe $400k for the shoeboxes.
If there is such a large gap between new and resale, why wouldn't more people buy resale? What is this obsession with pre-construction?
what you described is exactly the case - over 1200 resale condos a month selling versus less than half that pre-con
Not much of a slash. Still too high. Won't sell well.
why would anyone spend 900K on 500sq unless they will rent it complete waste and overpriced drywall
There stuck with these buildings. Foreclosures coming soon
Markets always find a balance. The massive immigration to Canada is deceptive since those people are usually minimum wage workers in our gig economy. They can’t afford our insane prices.
How do construction prices get fixed? What's the main culprit?
Realtors
When the price is below the cost to build with land free, that is the time to buy
Like everything else, the main culprit is the sheer number of culprits. The snowflake doesn't blame itself for the avalanche
@@BrandonSchleifer Brilliantly said #Wisdom !
Realtors and real estate investors. Both hand in hand. It shows that they lack knowledge on how a healthy market is meant to work
All this leads to a chaos if the jobs market changes.
What is going to happen in the much hyped Forma and The King etc selling for 2000$ They sure lost their shirts Never go for too much Hyped projects. They always turn to major dissapointmwnts
King and Sherbourne seriously? It is just one block away from lots of homeless and drug addicts shelters with infamous Moss Park...
are you going to talk about all the extra deaths and how all that will add to supply? I did not hear anything about that. 158K in extra deaths in just the US in the last year. places all over the world are opening up inquiries into it so....
Your research is well done. You seem to acknowledge the laws of supply and demand for existing condo product. In short, when demand falls in the facing of rising supply, asking prices fall. However, you don't seem to acknowledge the same universal laws for pre-con construction. Everything in RE works in slow motion. If speculators stop buying pre-con, less building will take place (demand). If that happens, there will be less demand for labour, and materials. As pre-con projects dry up, the cost of labour to build them WILL fall... the cost of materials to build them WILL fall... the cost to design them WILL fall... the city WILL eventually lower development fees to spur construction... we are already seeing falling interest rates making it cheaper now than 6 months ago, to finance construction. They will fall further. The laws of supply and demand prevail not just for end users, but for developers as well. You make only passing reference to this universal law and then dismiss it as unlikely. It is not only likely - it is inevitable.
Everything would be aggregated as long as the compensation increases. As everybody requires a house. But in order for compensation to rise, many will need to get educated on how the economy really works. As a pose to leaning on the knowledge given by the current education system which has proven to be loose for the public and a gain for those who hoard wealth in unjustified domains
if developers were really hurting they'd price their new builds around 1100/sqft. There's still a long way to go, and greed is still at play.
Based on the insightful presentation in this video, I, as a Toronto real estate investor, would like to share my prediction. The current slow construction pace is likely to result in a price increase. I understand that some of you may have concerns and discussions about interest rates all day. However, I believe the rates will go down both this year and the next. Contrary to hopes for a decrease, I anticipate that prices will not decline. This is not only due to factors like city land costs but also because the global landscape has led to disruptions in the housing supply. I foresee the price per square foot being around $1500 in Hamilton and Milton, and between $1900-2100 in Toronto. I apologize if this prediction challenges your expectations. Having been in Toronto for over 25 years, I recall my initial condo investments where I paid $120 per square foot.
Investing in condos is stupidity. It is merely a place of residence. I understand the relationship between pre construction and liquidity. However to operate on this flaw as a philosophy is unnatural and so puts you in a position of eventual loss, as good as gambling. Because in a healthy economy, everybody is able to afford new homes. Now I know this is a reality many may not have a point of reference to, but with some simple math you too can see this. Right now there is a block in resources, thus all that must be done is to overcome this block at the root so as to never deal with such again. The problem is that many investors choose to deal with the block on a surface level, hoping and betting for a different result. Plus they also regard this block as an opportunity for them to come back into a trade and capitalize again, as they have now become familiar with the cycles. Then some who have done well monetarily speaking, go out and offer courses to invite more to build on this Flimsy philosophy, in turn filling the educational streams with sewage that then comes back onto the economy as toxic sludge. That's when the finger games begin. And ultimately taxes increase cuz nobody in this equation is willing to take responsibility for the mess
Now investing in the development of condos. Completely different field. But for that you must study the demands of the public carefully. The problem in Canada is that demands are not accurately met, it is met just to say 'it's met'. There's seems to be no care for what the buyers are looking for, it shows that much is motivated by monetary profit. As a pose to overall
Elevated condominium fees, increased taxes, and a city plagued by a widespread bedbug infestation. No thanks.
Hmm, it looks like the Bumsteads will continue to be undercut by the deep-pocketed developers. They might have to sell that heavily-HELOCed "investment condo" of theirs at a substantial loss and/or, sell their primary residence to pony up for any monies owing.
Are developers actually canadian, does the money stay in Canada?
mostly
Totally they drop by half by october
Every major cities around the world have higher costs. That’s no secret.
12% discount isn’t “slashing”: 80%+ off is slashing...
No, giving you a gift for taking it for free is a real "slashing" 😉
Seriously man, won't you ever realize that nobody is going to hand you anything at their expense?
80% off 😂🤣😂
Canada just woke up it needs population after 2 centuries.
Expect Toronto Condos to go further down. With new taxes being introduced it doesn't make any financial sense to invest. Invest GTA or other parts of Ontario.
I NEVER TRUST THOSE CONSTRUCTION COST
LOOK AT ALL THE CONDO BEING BUILT NOWADAY
THEY ARE ALL SHITTY BUILD
735 FOR THE HARD COST IS NOT POSSIBLE
Unfortunately, you are absolutely right being suspicious.
Construction is a very shady industry with a lot of fraud and false reporting.
Declaring expensive materials while using the cheapest possible is pretty common.
absolutely
what worse is that developers use all these manipulate data to give off a nice sales pitch to the agent
and agent thought they know a lot without experiencing it
Me with a house at $220/sq ft😮
What nut would like to like at Yonge or downtown?! Toronto became the 3rd worst city in the world for traffic. And … it will get worse. Biking? No, thank you.
Walking is a thing. Transit is a thing. Only morons drive in downtown lmao
Not sure what you have against biking and if your downtown you can literally just walk to most places.
To whom they are going to rent these unsold units, and for how much?
Let hope all these new Canadians and sociology graduates will like up to snap these cheap rentals for $1500/month😂
They would rather rent it to international students, 4 per room, $300 each, packing 12 students in a 2-bedroom apartment. And these 12 students will rent their hallway to 1-2 more students 🤣
Good, now maybe the developers won’t trash all our heritage buildings that they are doing in Toronto, build them in the 905…. Also, many people don’t know condos are a shaky investment and the first properties to fall in bad times. During the pandemic when when the housing market exploded in Toronto and worldwide, condos dropped, like you could get a 2 bdrm at Yonge and Eglinton for 600K, so buyer beware…🏦
This not slashing prices
Nope! 500 sq feet! Stub your toe pricing!
Condos are crap
so construction costs range from 635 to 735. land prices should be lower, say 150. we're talking 800 for luxury. it can be done for 1K psf, especially avg housing. bottom line: RE ppl still being greedy af
to be clear those aren't the only costs of development - I have other videos that go into the other costs in depth
It would be all very reasonable if we were not talking about whopping 7 years it takes in Canada to build a high rise apartment building.
7 years man, compare it with 1.5 year it takes in China.
Canadian bureaucracy is so sloooooooooow 🐌
Making 100% profit over 1.5 would be a dream business.
Making 100% over 7 years - no so much, like 14% annually?
I can tell you from tons of first hand experience that the resale market has picked up in terms of days on market, Demand exceeding supply but this has not reflected in a price increase yet. It will shortly with a slight increase in price early this yr in central condos