Unveiling The Truth Behind Stock Trading: Avoiding Survivorship Bias
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 มี.ค. 2024
- When it comes to the stock market, Survivorship Bias is always present, and it leads to misinformation resulting in false expectation.
When a stock trader or investor tries to make money from the stock market they often look at the best performers or the companies which have grown the most, whilst they don't consider the many many companies that are no longer in existence and often excluded from the data.
Using such analysis can lead to a disappointing outcome.
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Buying silver and gold is easy, but it is renowned for stability during economic hard times like this. The main problem is investing in stocks, dividends and even cryptocurrencies to grow your portfolio.... I’ve been trying to grow my portfolio of $190K for some time now, my major challenge is not knowing the best entry and exit strategies ... I would greatly appreciate any suggestions
Just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your portfolio is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses. Also engage the services of a financial advisor to walk you through
Right, I delegate my day-to-day investing to an advisor ever since suffering a major steep-down late 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, I'm semi-retired with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments.
once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. would you mind dropping info of your invt-advisor please? i'm in dire need of proper asset allocation in order to achieve an optimal portfolio till year end, thanks in advance ..
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with vivian jean wilhelm' for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Your channel always stands apart as different. It's not at all about "Im so smart, just follow me." You really teach us to cope with real strategies. Thank you so much.
That means a lot - Thank you 🙏
This is why I dont read biographies except to see where they went wrong. Very few of those. Like Cesar, people dont publish there failures only there successes.
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $2M portfolios or maybe even consider some defensive investments.
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
AMBER KAY WRIGHT is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
You deserve more views ❤ one of the few honest TH-cam channels offering realistic market guidance for noobs. I’m very grateful for your work. Thank you ❤
Thanks 🙏
W pfn…aot reference right?
I really love your videos. As a new trader your videos are golden.
Mostly focusing on management of the phsycological warfare in your mind between 2 very strong emotions.
These contributions are like a medicine: You need to take it regularly and for a long time if you like to cure your misbehaviours as a trader. I have 30+ years of investing and trading behind me but I'm always watching with great interest. Thank you!
Thanks 🙏
Important points. Thx.
Thanks, I think dual macd one of the beast.
Great , keep going , best wishes.
Excellent video, thank you very much!
You are welcome!
thank you for the insights
Thank you 🙏
1:18 early example of Operations Research
Currently I am only using 20 weeks MA as my exit strategy, as you said, at least one indicator shall be used for exit strategy. I am not planning to use other indicators, since I like my trading plan as simple as possible. I have been spending most of my energy/time every morning to ensure my mental stability is most conducive for trading. In fact, compared to 3-4 years ago, when I would read as many technical/fundamental investing book as I could, now my library is full of trading psychology books. Having the greatest skill in the world is useless if the trader do not have the mental fortitude to execute his plans. Our subconscious conflicting beliefs often act against our best interest to gain profit from the market. Improving knowledge in technical analysis will improve our edge in the market, but fixing the subconcious conflicting belief is the key to grow our capital.
Hi FW, Very good video again. Especially USIC examples are very important. If you can make 8x per year in such years you can be richiest people in the world. This is not sustainable. Traders should be very careful about the survivorship bias.
Thanks for sharing!
Trading and investing is a microcosm of general psychological phenomena, which get elevated due to risk. The Survivorship bias is a serious problem everywhere and distorts all the information stream and our views of success generally. Think of the crisp models of success that peeps carry around in their pockets, which are based on following the successful and ignoring failures/losers because they're just losers and of course you're supposed to listen to winners. You need to assess the scene and respect informants in the game no matter their status, particularly the failures because you want to know why and how they failed.
2:00 Probability of picking Google
3:00 2023 USIC
5:00 Newbies and FOMO
6:55 20 week MA for selling
8:55 Don’t listen to clowns on TV
10:00 Psychology
What they dont tell you and they dont tell you a lot. Is sacrificing the small investors so the bigger players can prosper. This includes Fractional shares, get in for £1 or$1, I made a fortune with joe soap's advice, etc... this is all aimed at bringing in small investors who can be used to grow the market for others futher up the pyramid to prosper.
Great content ❤
Thanks 🙏
Great video as usual.
Thanks again!
Great video!
Glad you enjoyed it
great knowledge
Thank you 🙏
this is a fantastic video, every new trader should watch this!
I appreciate that!
*Another nuanced but exceedingly relevant topic explored. Also, is there a video on WHY the 20 Week Moving Average is such an effective indicator?*
This!
Absolutely fantastic video. Very well done with excellent examples. In a handful of "search engine" stocks it was almost impossible to pick Google. And then stick with it. Most people who picked it sold it much much earlier. At much lower valuations. So this begs the question. Is there a winner-ship trait? That one should be looking for. And what are winner-ship traits in stocks. This is very very difficult to answer. Because now we are getting into prediction. And as any stock trader/investor will tell you, this is exceedingly difficult predict. Blessings & Warm Regards
Thanks 🙏
If you just split your money between all the options, your gain from Google would've outweighed your losses from the other options.
Very helpful video
Glad you think so!
My last two trades I jumped in on high volatility and positive news, up $600 on one, and $90 on the other in minutes. I should have taken the money and run, but my hope for a massive gain caused me to stay in the trades even in decline with no stop loss hoping for a rebound. Then, I was in just to recover. And then , I was out of each trade in despair. 1st trade -$500, second -$333, all as a result of my own personal greed. The 2nd could have been avoided by learning my lesson on the 1st, which apparently I did not. The T-2 played a huge psychological role in me wanting to hold out for a larger gain as I would have to wait to trade again with my small account. Learning as I go. Thank you for this video!
T-2? What played a huge role was your impulse fomo behavior. I know because I done it too and you can't blame external things alone as the true source if your gambling issue. Traders trade risk and trading risk inappropriately is called gambling. Trading risk properly is called running a business.
Very good explanation Pro
Thank you 🙏
good job buddy!
Thank you 🙏
Since stock prices are based upon buying and selling activity, and these to follow external factors and not actual company value, investing in stocks is little better than gambling. The best you can do is to diversify, invest for the long term thereby minimising risk and hopefully realising returns better than your bank offers.
@FinancialWisdom are you familiar with toby crabel opening range breakout and nr7 setup. i actually have a copy of his book hr yook out of circulation would be a cool segment
👍Yes, 'selected' celebrated traders. 👍A big employer can enter two bros into a competition: one bro gambles only shorts and the other gambles only longs, both on risk assets. One of them will win, bringing kudos to their company sponsor.
Boom
The simple truth is that stock trading needs a constant influx of new money to keep functioning.
The money goes to the winners, partially, and to the house, mainly.
It's big fish eating little fish.
Your videos are awesome
Thanks
Thanks Gareth. Absolutely brilliant. Loved the illustration of the returning war planes. I now use your 10 week / 20 week EMA crossover as an exit point for ETFs. With regard to the investing championship, do we have any idea yet how the top 3 achieved their extraordinary returns? Was it massive leverage plus great money management? It can't just have been down to good stock picking... or was it? They must have had a team behind them doing research and algorithms. My guess is it's impossible to perform that well single handed.
My guess is huge leverage/risk. No doubt one bad or mediocre trade would have lost everything..
@@FinancialWisdom Thanks. That sounds very plausible. Plus a little teamwork in the background I suspect.
The person that got 805 % did an interview with tradelion on TH-cam
@@William.-. Many thanks. The interview is over 2 hours long but I'm going to work my way through it. The guy is clearly very intelligent. He's a software engineer and I'd guess his math skills are a couple of standard deviations above average. He focuses on money management which is no great surprise. And he's a day trader so he must have some pretty useful algorithms. Thanks again.
I do not join your idea of stop loss - because:
If I made my homework correct I know that the company I am invested in is one of the best found background according to my investigation on fundamentals and chart analysis compared with other options.
This in mind ...
If the paper declines I am shure that the fundamental analysis did not change rapidly ... if basics changes I have to rethink of course.
But if fundamental analysis has not changed during declining (may caused by external effects that will turn around shurely) it would be a better idea to get deeper invested by acctually cheapness of the paper instead using stopp loss ...
😮 What do you think???
I have the same approach.
Ww2 war plane survivorability depended on self-sealing fuel tanks, so you aren't flying gaint zippo lighters like the Japanese were doing and armored cockpits, located behind the seat so the pilot has some protection from flying projectiles. No math equation needed, just common sense.😂
You missed the analogy champ
I lost my entire positons in BBBY and Credut suisse. But… GME made me more than those two lost. Not as much as T lost me but I haven’t sold yet, so fingers crossed! Also 1 other stock I’m embarrassed to admit I still own… 2 or 3 reverse splits later. 90% red. 😅
I wonder if Cathie Wood is a subscriber yet?
will you make a video about the strategie of 2023 US Investing Championship?
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Catherine Gauthier.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
You trade with Catherine Gauthier too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
Survivorship bias is a game-changer in how we view trading success. It's so important to consider the full picture in trading decisions.
Thanks. And yes absolutely
Since we're approaching April, one of the best months to buy stocks. I am currently holding north of $300k in a savings account waiting to invest in another huge opportunity.. Where would you invest this as of now?
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my advisr are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
8======D -------
Hi, may I ask what software do you use to create this kind of videos? I know several whiteboard hand writing video maker softwares but just wondering which one do you use. In advance thank you so much for your reply.
videoscribe
do you keep improving your strategy? or you just simply stick with your current one?
The one on the third place in the championship had a very tight risk management as well.
Supposedly 🙄
Oi, duckduckgo did NOT disappear, it wasn't even there back then ;-)
The trading platform I use offers their own shares to be traded without any fees on their platform. How should one trade this to take advantage of the zero fees? The fundamentals are not the greatest although it is improving.
1:48 Abraham wald and sam atlmam looks similar 🤔
Can you make video with the stock position who made on investing championship please?
Look up Oliver Kell. He does just that
Also you can have multiple accounts in the Robbins trading world cup
Jeremy LeFuFu mention!!!
😂
Tnx so much for all you do. Can I request for a coupon code for the PDF? Many many thanks
Message me direct from the website 😉
Went to “contact” and I posted it there just now. Many many thanks
I don't use stoplosses. I enter with the attitude that I can lose my whole investment, then I decide how much I'm willing to lose. As price goes down, I buy more shares, untill I have reached my maximum investment in the particular stock. I also have a steady income, not related to trading to keep going while the stockmarket does its thing. Long term trades (years) mostly.
That it really is the only casino where the whales are also the house.
Why isn't there studies on the effectiveness of wealth creation in the market through investing, im not talking about rich hedge funds that started off filthy rich, I'm talking about that guy making 40k a year.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Kathleen Chandler
YES!!! That's exactly her name (Kathleen Chandler) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺
You trade with Kathleen Chandler too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
fxannchandler 💯 ..that's it
Scam!
So how does one explain David Ryan or Mark Minervini who won several or others who placed high multiple times?
False results, numerous accounts, endless really...
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Flora Elkin’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
👌
My name is in your videoclip. Cool USIC 2023
How can I not love Tesla?!?
Thank you for your work. It has been a shinning light in a chaotic, complex and challenging time for a new trader like myself.
Thank you 🙏
Google was the next Google 2 1/2 weeks ago.
Congrats on achieving 32nd! Are you entering this year?
Thanks - No purely because the contest lacks transparency, i,e risk taken etc..
@@FinancialWisdom Yeah, I just checked, I made about 22.9% last year, I probably would've had a place in the US championship had I entered too lol. (Betted on the wrong leveraged ETF at the wrong time last year, otherwise that 22.9 could've been 27.5% had I broke even instead of taking a loss. Oh well).
My teacher told me to not take those seriously, comparing yourself to another trader is usually leaving an opening for emotional hinderances. (Though he gave me that advice when I was still a beginner).
Are you all paying the same fiverr animator or something because I swear multiple channels have this exact same style.
Its the same software - videoscribe
The #cgc is trading an lot more higher the the last high
Still trying to figure out how to make 1% a day constantly)
are you general knowledge?
Reflecting on this further - it seems like his method is great for avoiding big losses (though he only compares to the worst performing stocks), but doesn't generate enough upside to return meaningful alpha. Also, that trading competition you were part of has some terrible contestants. How is it possible to return 1.1% in a bull market! We need a video on the people in the top 5 of that list for insight into what works.
The top 5 amongst 400 contestants might just be people who took big risks and got lucky. There might have been 200 people who took big risks and it only worked out for 5 of them.
@@Monaleenian Just investing in an S&P tracker would have returned over 24% in 2023. That's low risk. To beat that, you just needed a few tech stocks.
Got it. 20wk moving average to get out and return to base.
Stocks only really benefit the ultra rich. Just now getting into all this. It took me a while to be able to differentiate between “the economy” and the “stock trading market” it seems like 90% of the videos on TH-cam talking about “the economy” are actually talking about stocks and really only affect rich people. I’m sorry but most people who make anything less than 100,000 on stocks during your entire life…..Who cares? And for the average American that is a lot of money that you put in. What is the actual rate that you get back? %7? I’ll just keep my money and spend it on things I like instead. And spend my time getting better at my job so I can get raises. It’s safer.
The S&P was up 24% in 2023, therefore on face value your strategy achieving 27% doesn't seem to be worth the effort if you factor in forex and trading fees when getting in and out of stocks.
expecting 24% every year would be absurd
Forex fees when buying stocks????? Wtf you on about?
@@sillymesilly If you buy US stocks in the UK, most brokers will charge 0.5-1% forex when you buy and sell. Obviously there's no forex charge if you if you are based in the US and trade US stocks.
@@mexicantradesfutures it's about his alpha.
@@sillymesilly Gareth is based in the UK.
Hey Jeeves, who will win the search engine war? Yahoo Answers replies, Yahoo!
spot on :-)
The simplest thing to do is since most retail longs it is short. It’s so easy. It’s literally taking candy from a baby makes so much money shorting and blow your mind.
I disagree. Going short is much harder and riskier than going long. Do you speak from experience?
@@Tensura-oe2ys Correct. The trend is your friend.
Long is harder but safer, short is easier but riskier. With your attitude you will blew up from a short squeeze.
Going Short is way Harder than going Long. 1) the market has a Upward bias (Thank God.) 2) There are a lot more factors that you have to consider in going short versus going long. 3) The market is Not rational. Even though it should be going down because of fundamental reasons, it does not- or does so after a considerable of time.
Nice paid comments bro.
2k+ views, and just 16 comments including urs (obviously urs is not paid)...
I think these are not paid..
@@neocruise2003 Paid I mean these commenters definitely got paid by using your fantastic stock trading videos tips!
The channel has 193K subscribers. It does not need paid comments. The content is free and excellent. It's always a good idea to check facts before putting up offensive posts.
I signed up to and can say the amount charged is so low that I’m surprised he even bothers and clearly isn’t primarily motivated by generating income. I don’t watch the site as much as I do and to be fair to you, your caution is definitely reasonable but this site is the 1 in 10 where value can be extracted, no scammy up selling or high price courses, just a very good resource. He has an excellent stock screener included but I use another so again if I didn’t have, I’d save that cost.
Honestly if you are genuinely interested in sustainable long term speculation or investing with realistic returns, his resources are very good especially as a foundation
@@neocruise2003By paid commenters I mean these commenters got paid by signing up to your financial stock infos! Wowza!
*** NEWS FLASH *** Professional financial advisors, with analyst teams, dont beat the S&P500 92% of the time. What ‘real’ chance do you stand. Sure you might hit it big every once in a while, but the reality is the vast, vast majority of you guys will lose over the long term. Much better to keep your day job and invest monthly in an index that mirrors the S&P500.
Does anyone know, of anyone that started with $10k & is now retired because of the market, rich? I bet not a single one knows anybody like this, the market is a big dumb con if anyone thinks about it for a minute.
I would agree with you. It is Very difficult and Takes a lot of time to beat the market makers at their own game. For the average person, it is best to have a passive, dollar average, long term equity ETF strategy. I do know of people who made it, but they were all working for Wall Street 'Power' firms- certainly Not ordinary Joes.
@@hungusthefungus3461so how does one explain Mark Minervini or Kristjan Qullamaggie?
Best is find the Highest Secured ones and spend your extra money there.. Long term Security is Key
@@arathaemaxus5250 they're fakers/liars & or we are definitely not being told the whole story.
How does this trading stuff work? I'm really interested but I just don't know how it go about it. I heard people really make it huge trading.
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. I'm guided by Fergus waylen a widely known crypto consultant,
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimony on CNBC news last week.
Waylen has to be the best mentor I've met. He's copy-trading has been the best because I hop on it with $3000 and I'm up with $35,000 in profit. He's insights, information and versatility in the market is super
I didn't know you guys knew Fergus Waylen . He's been great and has helped me balance the scale in my trades and job with his insights and auto trades. This helps to avoid my emotions altering a trade.
He's definitely a top player in the trading world, His ability to make successful trades is really impressive.
If you’re reading this comment, you should not be trying to pick stocks (or “trading” as it’s now called). You should sell up and stop immediately. What you are doing is called gambling, not investing.
Incorrect i'm afraid. It all depends on the approach of the individual.
@@FinancialWisdom For you and people like you, it is gambling. For a select few of experts who devote their lives to the study of businesses, it is not gambling. You are not one of them.
You explained nothing.What a waste of time
Thanks!
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $2M portfolios or maybe even consider some defensive investments.