Black Swan Author Taleb on Markets, Interest Rates, Bubbles, Investing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ม.ค. 2023
- Universa Investments Senior Scientific Advisor Nassim Taleb says the stock market is way too overvalued given current interest rates, and the road back to normal will be "very painful for some." Taleb spoke exclusively to Bloomberg's Sonali Basak at an investor day in Miami on Thursday. Earlier, Universa Investments told clients that ballooning debts across the global economy are poised to wreak havoc on markets rivaling the Great Depression.
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![[THE DIGITAL FACTORY] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Antifragile](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/g2LYTUEOn20/mqdefault.jpg)
Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.
These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.
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no way Bloomberg does not have better quality for a Taleb interview 😭
it was streamed from iPhone 4
I assumed he meant the interviewer. She made the tech issues a pleasant distraction.
agreed. but its also on a boat, i assume that had an effect
He has a thing about low quality videos - Something like, people pay more attention the lower the quality of the video
Indeed
I'm not kidding when I say that the market crash and high inflation have me really stressed out and worried about retirement. I've been in the red for a while now and although people say these crisis has it perks, I'm losing my mind but I get it Investing is a long-term game, so focus on the long run.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
@@Lemariecooper it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what about to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
@@patrickbrussels4454 The one effective technique I'm confident nobody admits to using, is staying in touch with an Investment-Adviser. Based on firsthand encounter, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $800k since 2020. Just bought my 3rd property for rental. Credit to FLORENCE YAGODA.. my Investment-Adviser.
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Dont worry the 80's were pretty good and intrestrates were high too. Its a matter of readjusting things. It will be a shock for sure, but on the other hand all the useless crap that costs too much money and has no real use will get flushed out. It really is about time this happened.
Keep in mind you can make a lot of money in a declining market aswell (shorting).
This guy is the smartest guy around IMO. His Book "Antifragile" is one of the best books i have ever read. i love his one quote - " if you see fraud - and don't call fraud you are a fraud"
I hope he writes better than he speaks because he comes off very fragmented and not super cohesive.
His books are awesome
I agree. Fave book by Taleb. And I think HE thinks so, too
@@paulradich85 agree. Around minute 17 he gives away his inflation weighting
Very smart but his general assessment of global markets is essentially a just world fallacy. He’s just saying that if debt were real and has consequences “the old fashioned way”, things would be more equitable. Well, that’s great, but the major stakeholders don’t want equitable they want to maintain their leverage. He’s been saying this since 2008. Not once did the us government hold financial institutions accountable for recklessly writing debt… because it’s all the same people benefiting. Like I said, it’s not dealing in reality, it’s dealing in how he thinks it ought to be.
For a Bloomberg interview it’s shocking quality, audio keeps dropping out constantly
It’s crazy TH-camrs are able to do better quality than Bloomberg ffs in 2023?!
they´re on a boat, lil bro
Billionaires became billionaires by valuations not cash flows……very true especially nowadays
OPM baby....OPM
Given the Fed is now discussing rate cuts, a big question mark is appearing: Will things return to moderate interest rates and force cash flow driven wealth? Or will their be enough pressure from idol wealth to prevent this?
If the Idol wealth wins, the US is heading to an extremely hard landing, if not a severe backsliding in global competitiveness (if it hasn't already).
Intricate Mathematician + Engineer + Trader + Writer + Linguist = Nicholas Nassim Taleb. Genius means being able to apply principles in an interdisciplinary way. True heroes are never appreciated because comfort inoculates us against our blind spots.
Es verdad.
no one loves him as much as he loves himself.
His book 'Fooled by Randomness' changed my investing career in 2007. No nonsense, strictly probability trading, no emotions.
what's your net worth?
Same here Mike, probability and the law of large numbers.
Ludwig Von Mises got me out of the hood 💯💯💯
His whole point is that you don’t know the probability. He just buys deep OTM options
Really does amaze me how few people understand the inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices.
So many people in my generation are completely clueless to the world around them.
Thank you for the talk, Nassim helps provide a grounded perspective.
did they film this on an iphone 3g?
Fantastic insights, so much to absorb. Thank you!
The interviewer’s questions sometimes are too shallow and bringing up quick and shiny words but the professor’s ignoring them. He is a teacher and he wanted us to learn that’s why he’a taking his time, making sure he delivers deep insights.
Nice sound quality 👌 obviously Bloomberg didn't want this message out !
Great to have Mr. Nassim Taleb, always a pleasure to listen to him.
Great interviewer!
Happiness is equal to positive cash flow.
was this produced by a financial TV network or the local Chamber of Commerce?
Frustrating audio gaps
Interesting perspective
the best books i read about the risk in finance .
Which one is your favorite?
@@chocolatier9597 Antifragile
Debt bubble is coming down soon! Cash is king. 😎
Throwback to 2006 youtube quality! haha
Phenomenal talk, and you are actually right on the complaining part, I am humbled.
This is Bloomberg. Why are there audio issues?
This quality gave me 56k modem era feelling
This man is a legit genius. His contribution for Behavioral Finance and debunking traditional finance value will be remember. But i am a bit sad that he is beefing with Lex.
A bit of verbal conflict is good, keeps everyone honest
Lex is a phony that’s why Taleb doesn’t associate with him
BT, Thanks for the interview, guys please work on the mic.
Tail events are very rare. It’s easy to forget about risk
But the impact can be very high, so some cannot be ignored. Like not having health care.
@@michael57603 yep. That probability is not that important when the impact is immense
These "tail events" seem to be appearing with alarming regularity.
@@mth469 no
And they occur with more frequency than we realise
Sometimes we need to remember that money is a social construct. Always has been and always will be.
Money may be a social construct but it is ultimately a decentralized consentual one. Money is not money because of government decree, money is money because enough people think it has value.
@@slovokia not exactly. Some fiat money trades at higher value because it’s perceived to be backed by more trustworthy governments.
money makes it possible to trade a cow for 6.5 chickens without having to kill a chicken
What “correct” options pricing theory is Taleb referring to at 35:05 when referring to Black-Scholes as incorrect?
His barbell strategy, I guess
haha, what a chick dangling her legs in front of mr.swan
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this informative content cheers Frank
You can fully comprehend and - consequently - appreciate Taleb and his investment concept without familiarizing yourself with the works of Mandelbrot.
This felt so amateurish with the sound and mic problems. Come on Bloomberg!!
How on Earth does a company like Bloomberg have such shoddy audio quality?? Someone should get fired
Bloomberg's Sonali Basak vs CNBC's Seema Mody
I feel he explains written better than spoken.
How could you explain talking with such a pair of legs in front of you..
He has said thats because of his writing editor, he/she is the one that makes things more fluid
1000%
Speaking of "tumors" or "bubbles" they are in Miami where many areas have houses priced at more then $4,000/SF ! Talk about Bubbles! The RE market is a HUGE one, esp in places like Miami, SF, NYC, etc. Interesting he refers to Biden as "Brandon."
Interview was great but production quality gets an F. Audio on mic not working, video freezing, shaking stage. Wtf is going on.
You’d think Bloomberg could afford better video and audio equipment.
Why doesn’t Taleb read his own audio books? Does anyone know?
Too mundane
He views himself as an author .. not a speaker, not a narrator, not anything else .. his best work always written in pages .. anything else is neglected or bad on purpose so honest followers come for the quality of ideas not appearances!
@@Learna_Hydralis thanks this helps!
Wow the audio quality is trash, but great content!
is that my browser or this recording is that broken?
Great interview. Please fix the damn microphone.
WOW.. she is distractingly beautiful
Finally, someone who speaks common sense
It is sense, but it is not so common unfortunatelly.
Interviewing Taleb requires a lot of patience. Watching his performance is even more painful than looking at the month end statements.
Probably took a lot for her to maintain composure😂
It's like he's formulating thoughts that he isn't vocalizing. Completely incoherent.
@@doodedoodotdotdeedooyeah wonder how long it took him to write that book
And the worst part is his simps who think he's being profound.
Aria you are moron
Hahahahaa, 6:36 "It's all paper, for god's sake!"
Commodities may be cheaper but interest rates won’t be really low so cash will become more valuable ?
Patience that's it all it takes today people don't have the patience let alone the time span.
Bloomberg is putting lot of ads and the video was gettint stuck in between!
Max was here
Hard to listen when microphone not functioning.
Sonali is gorgeous idgaf
The audio is very messed up
The debt ceiling eill be material because the anticipation will be felt in asset prices as we get closer. He clearly doesnt follow the political landscape close enough.
He doesn’t follow political landscapes at all. I read his book when I was in college, but then as I saw governments literally erase debt with a wave of a wand I realized his grand theory is based on a system that if it ever really existed, is irrelevant today.
recording quality extremely poor😑
Whose smart idea was it to put a commercial every time the video breaks up. 20 ads to cover up poor quality video lol
Nice
Why this video is interrupting? Maybe because he says the truth ?
They were on a boat
How's the quality so bad ????
Minute 37 summarises the secret sauce to Germany's success
He's trying as hard as he can to talk and complete sentences while looking at her legs it's not easy
🔥
For I had pondered on a rune of roses, Which to her votaries the moon discloses
Shame for the quality of this video. Incredible from Bloomberg
Don't give Nassim a microphone with a switch.
😂
😅
Taleb is hilarious
You cant do the Lex Friedman podcast but she meets the Nassim standard. I wonder why....
He says I’m there is something about lexs style or substance that is evident to anyone. That underlies why he refuses to talk to him. I have no idea what that is ie to naively positive ? So that is a good stage to challenge Lex etc. don’t get it and don’t know why he can’t elaborate for the rest of us under IQ of 150 ?
Maybe Lex is another youtube grifter?
@@RagedContinuum No
It’s 2023 and we can’t even get a working microphone and reasonable video quality? I get better quality from TH-camrs in their kitchen than here on Bloomberg. Wtf is going on?
The lesson from Taleb life is not doing the same thing as him but to think outside the box. Maybe studying dance and drawing will make you a smarter trader, not math and linguistics.
Seriously you are uploading with this audio quality???
lord have mercy on us
lol dont stop urself from smiling though
Wow, she’s gorgeous
audio technical problem is embarassing
The rate was not "zero;" it was just above zero. Zero will happen again if CPI and core CPI fall off a cliff. Last 6 months of CPI has been essentially flat. The federal reserve will lower again, it is just a matter of to what and when. 2nd half 2023 stay flat or prime rate cut in half... appx 2.5%?
Dream on. Inflation here to stay for the decade. M2 up 40%
Did u have to record this interview with potato equipments?
Who is the fool running audio/video at Bloomberg, and why is he not fired?
Is it just me or does it seem like the interviewer and audience don’t understand anything Nassim is saying. The interviewer is prying Nassim to say something like this stock is overvalued or where the market is going in the short term.
Interviewer certainly doesn’t have any head or tail about what Nassim said
Omg! I was THINKING THE SAME THING. It felt like interviewer was on completely different planet not understanding a damn thing Nassim is trying to say. The worst interviewer. Ugh
it is so annoying that they could not provide a good mic
smash?
Smash and Relax
get a life
Those legs did an amazing job of distracting me from the sound dropping out!
The Black Swan book is just paper.
Well the big issue he is missing is that stock prices are ultimately decided by supply and demand. No matter the dividend yield, no matter the cash flow, no matter the FED interest rates, if there is enough demand for a stock, the price will go up. And history has shown demand for stocks is increasing. It's actually very simple. More and more people with more and more money (due to technological advancements and increasing standards of living) will buy stocks and that is the only reason why stock markets are and always will be going up (with little temporary bumps on the road).
I was a huge fan of Nassim Taleb, but seems he got high on his own supply
More and more people equals bubble.
I think that's a good point, but I don't know about it being a long term trend. A market downturn will have the weak hands running for cover.
Stocks go up because money is being printed more rapidly.
TALEB's MICROPHONE KEEPS CUTTING OUT
This recording is hard to hear. Breaking up too much
Poor job to capture sound properly...
Lots of glitches in the video. Makes it very frustrating to watch
His so called, Bleeding is called the Real interest rate - You must take inflation into account when calculating what the Real Interest rate is
Everyone commenting like a sound engineer is not listening
Ugh. There is a thing called humility.
shocking quality
Is no socks a sign of a black swan ankle event?
THE RPOC DUMP IS IMMINENT
The laziest thing you can be in investing is a perma bear. It’s easy to point out what can go wrong, much more skill required to predict what will go right (and how/when!)
Too many commercials
How is the mic this bad you should fire your production guy
I can tell you socially its a lot worse now than in the 90s, thanks to crap like facebook, instagram, twitter, etc..
Poor mic and audio arrangement
BTC has own cycles as well.