'The Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb on looming crisis: The risk is in front of us
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 มิ.ย. 2023
- Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments scientific advisor and author of ‘The Black Swan’, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the markets and economy, why a bubble is looming, the state of cryptocurrency, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio of $450k dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I actually subscribed for a few trading courses but it didn't help much, been getting suggestions to use a proper financial advisor, how did you go about touching base with your coach?
You do have a great deal of overlap. Having growth and value helps diversify a portfolio.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
This is a new challenge, I think if you're in red, based on total loss thus far may consider just keeping put. The market does tend to correct.
During a recession, many stocks and assets may be undervalued. I believe now is an ideal time to capitalize on the market for long-term gains, but it wouldn't hurt to know how to make short-term profit. I've heard of investors making over $400k profit in this current sinking market, and I'm looking for ideas on how to earn similar profits.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
Lisa Angelique Abel is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Reminded me again why I dont watch CNBC, those idiots kept interrupting and arguing with their guest. That is not just rude, its stupid, just let the man speak and then let everyone think about it.
Jeez i hate interruptions, but myself i dont always have a pen and paper or phone to jot down followup issue.
Right now, things appear odd. The US dollar is becoming less valuable due to inflation, but it is becoming more valuable when compared to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. People are flocking to the dollar because they believe it is more secure. I'm concerned that rising inflation may cause my $420,000 in retirement savings to devalue. We don't have any other places to deposit our money.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Please who’s this advisor that guides you?
Salvatore Fortunato Sofia is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over 3 decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. in April last year alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun.
Investors should be cautious about their exposure and be wary of new buys, especially during inflation. Such high yields in this recession is only possible under the supervision of a professional or trusted advisor.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant heiped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since Januar, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment
Hi Mate, please how can i reach this financial coach of yours of yours?
Yup you’re just like your typical doom and gloom. I hope the market crashes 99 percent . I have about 14 million ready.
There isn't recession. Companies are still reporting record profits and unemployment us low. Inflation is relatively high but not by international standards.
When you get the GOAT on the show, you do not interrupt people!
exactly!! very annoying
Proof of existence
Talk heads can’t help but talk.
Wrecked an important interview iyam.
the goat of brainwashedness?=
I am aware market trends and economic indicators can influence the performance of different investment options, but I've been reading news about people who were still able to make large profits of up to $580k during this crash...... what is the most effective strategy at this time?
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
@@ThomasHeintz wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
You can do your research and be on the lookout for one with intelligent strategies who'll help your portfolio maintain an unwavering and a progressive growth. Laura Marie Ray is my advisor. She has the Flexibility & Expertise to Meet Your Needs. Verify her yourself
@@ThomasHeintz Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your investment advisor. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The crash in everything, stocks, bonds, cryptos, real estate, will end about the time the Dow/Gold ratio is 1:1 or less. That is, the Dow needs to reach the price of an ounce of gold, before we are near the bottom. That is the historical pattern. Note that this can happen with a collapse in the stock market, OR an increase in the price of gold, or some combination of these two things.
After it all crashes then you invest. Get the stuff no one wants for dirt cheap. Then your losses are minimal if things don’t pick up. Everyday as food goes up your money is worth less. It’s good now to have a lot of precious metals on hand. . The value is skyrocketing.
Reasons why people won't inveest right now:Crypt0 crashing, Record inflation, Beaar markt fears, Rising interest rates, Housing bubble talk ,But maybe...These are reasons to inviest right now...
I need guidance so i can salvage my bag due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can i reach this FA?
The crazy part is that advisors are probably outperforming the market and raising good returns. I will give this a look, thanks a bunch for sharing this
Bitcoin; not 'cryptos'. Educate yourself. Improve your ignorance.
Every day we encounter novel challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Despite hearing that insider trading secrets could lead to making millions in the financial market, I hesitated to invest as I lack the required skills and a sound strategy to surpass the market and achieve profitable returns. Additionally, although I possess $160,000, I find it challenging to take the plunge due to a shortage of funds.
@@EllenAbrex How can I reach this adv-iser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective invest-ment approach on my savings
@@EllenAbrex Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
With that kind of money just leave the US and live comfortably elsewhere. Don't waste your life.
2024 stimulus, Steal From Your Neighbor
The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
@@jessicasquire Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again
@@Lemariecooper Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
@@Lemariecooper Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
I wouldn’t buy gold with your money. It’s a waste, Treasuries pay better. NVidia pays better.
I wish the hosts would shut up and let people say their piece. Each guest should have a clear, concise, declarative statement to make when they first open their mouth. Write it down and read it. Only then should the talkers start drawing out and steering the narrative.
Well, I mean, when this guest did talk it was like he didn't know what to say. Long pauses mid sentence. Look like an old senile grandpa that couldn't form a thought very well.
@@EricK-vw5wh he was trying to be careful not to say anything that would contradict the forever pumping that comes out of this channel. But the sentiment was clear, the party is over and once the big fish are able to deleverage this market is going in the tank.
Big thumbs up
I like when hosts keep people on track. It is boring when someone says "umms", "you know" etc. These hosts are the best in the business and the ratings prove it.
@@EricK-vw5wh Lmao dude, you probably just doesnt know who Nassim Taleb is, a simple googling would have give you about the "old senile" grandpa you were talking about. Hes a genius statistician and economist who wrote famous books like black swan and Fooled by Randomness. He has extremely high acumen in understanding macroeconomics than any of these half assed clowns sitting in the studio and talking about capital markets like.
A number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 65, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@laurabruce-op1xx Mind if I ask you recommend this particular professional you use their service? i have quite a lot of marketing problems.
@@JanAlston-kd6yl Elise Marie Terry, a well-known professional in her field, is my advisor. I advise deeper investigation of her credentials. She is a great resource for anyone trying to understand the financial industry because of her extensive experience.
@@laurabruce-op1xx thank you for this tip , I must say, Elise appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
As usual.. Joe shared his wisdom, interrupting guest and pushing aside what he said..
Good. Guest was full of himself and wrong
@@OnChainGaming thanks to CNBC for having Joe to educate everyone!
Joe, why does Ireland use the Euro? :)
@@OnChainGaming wrong how?
@uberboiz he said retail investors shouldn't buy stocks. Which is crazy. Owning companies is how to build wealth.
It's like saying retail shouldn't own their own home because they can't predict short-term moves... You don't need to know what's going to happen short term to know that owning great companies / property over the long term builds wealth.
Dude these fake accounts leaving comments about their 400k accounts and "I'm looking for a financial advisor"...
Its really getting out of hand
He is correct, no pain, no gain, no pain, no heal, no way around it..😮
The Turkish Baklava Market - No risk, no crisis , 100 percent satisfaction.
I’m in! Running to the market right now to stockpile Baklava! 😂
AI related stocks are hyped up too much. Agree.
It way to early to invest in Ai.... The most important thing to do at the moment is to understand how Ai will negatively affect the investments you have. It is a major disruptor of so damn many industries! (e.g. architecture, legal, accounting, photography, search, retail, etc., etc.)
People are affected by inflation far more quickly than they are by a stock or property market crisis because it directly impacts their standard of living. The current level of negative market sentiment is not surprising. To survive in this economy, we urgently need assistance. The ETF/Equity market continues to fluctuate.
When the news is the worst and investor confidence is at its lowest, indices routinely turn from a bear market to a bull market. This illustrates how quickly the market's direction may change.
@@mcginnnavraj4201 You will need a strong FA to help you through the current market turmoil. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mostly because I lack the knowledge and energy to deal with these ongoing market conditions. I made more than $220K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having an investing counselor is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
@@graceocean8323 I've been looking at comparable opportunities in the current market because I know a lot of people who made fortunes from the Dotcom crash and the 2008 crash. Could this consultant who helps you be of any assistance?
I've spared myself the hassle that a disorderly market brings. Because of my line of work, I am unable to manage my portfolio, so I simply mimic the trades of SALVATORE FORTUNATO SOFIA, an investment advisor I watched on Bloomberg Business News. These days, the best approach to enter the market is through reading, researching, being patient, and getting advice when necessary. After that, everything went smoothly.
Cantilliom effects are real
Nassim has predicted 17 of the last 5 black swan events
The definition of a black swan event is that you can't predict it. You can only realise in hindsight that you saw it coming.
Says a future homeless person...
He said white swan
@@morg444 Homelessness is already mainstream and accepted in America.
💯😂. Dude's a fraud but ppl still listen
Thank you. Finally someone says, "the emperor has no clothes".
Thank you,Nicholas Nassim. I will have bad sleep for a while now! ;-) ....however it's llikely true: The risk is too much liquidity in the market for too long now and too much real estate speculation again after 2008. Seems at least it is time for that market to go on a long diet....and for AI: Would you sell Microsoft now? Puuuuuuh, difficult.
P.S. Please guys, do not interrupt such a great guest!
I really liked his book. So detailed yet approachable.
Zune was so underrated
I used to respect Taleb. He'd rather be right than make money. As of the last few years he appears to be neither right nor making money.
Ever heard of a thing called "recency bias"? Look it up
💯. He sounds smart when you're new to investing. Seasoned investors know he's trash though lol
@@howtoactuallyinvestso who's good ? Lynch ? Buffet ? Thiel ? Some succesful Japanese options trader ?
@@curious_one1156 Buffet & Munger, Lynch. Thiel is scum
SKIN IN THE GAME - great book from him!
Taleb's criticism of MMT is an attack on a straw man. MMT does not propose that there is no limit to the amount of money that can be printed. MMT stipulates that the limit on the money supply is dictated by inflation. When inflation rises taxes have to be raised so that money supply is reduced. In this respect there is no difference between MMT and conventional monetary theory.
MMT refuses to acknowledge the fact that to raise taxes politicians would take the pain. And that would never happen. So MMT won't work. As a purely economic theory it has some merit. But economics and politics are inextricably linked. Therefore, it won't work.
The big problem is America is drowning in corporate and national debt. Let's just keep increasing the debt ceiling and kick the can down the road😢
1968 Dow Jones was a wholesome 620! $ was convertible into gold. Four decades prior homes were selling for 3- 4 tousand dollars. Prices were going down for older homes as they were considered used a concept on cars. Half a century later everything turned out elevated in order to make us all feel a success. We all sit at cassino table with an ever and ever higher stakes. Dealer won't let us quit as it is de-facto our bank.
That last comment.. "if you're a professional, make sure you're not naked long [on] stocks" after telling individuals to avoid AI and real estate has me the most concerned because as an individual my non-stock investments are real estate. What's the vehicle then? Bonds? Go liquid until you can buy? Im guessing a "Yes and" strategy
Would have been a good interview without the host interrupting the guest.
The market is blinded by euphoria. Wake up call in coming.
If u drive through my city everything looks pretty good ...when u start to look at all the commercial developments closely and strip malls you see a lot of empty store fronts with no businesses in them paying rent. Even the new mega developments the city's have been building and planning are having a hard time finding renters and keeping a high occupancy.
I’m definitely interested to see how this recession will turn out considering so many companies prepared for the worst. It’s expected to still be better than 08’ just how much???
Raising interest rates does not solve oligopolistic price fixing by specific industry leaders out to achieve economic gouging and financial drilling of the consumer - Economics 101.
“Economics 101” bold claim, the only thing in economics 101 is 99/100 times an economist is wrong. Ur big words don’t mean a thing bruv.
Um.... Joe was adding to his point and agreeing lol..
MMT was a mischaracterization of the aggregate demand. Zero percent interest rates were ok, only as long as the aggregate supply complied for an equilibrium to allow lower price changes (inflation.) Now that the demographics, a war that cut off Russia from the world (or at least US dollar denominated trade), and political mistakes of lower taxes and stringent SEC environment has resulted in intergenerational wealth transfer (and resulting concentration of wealth) and too much class stratification that have now caused a spike in inflation (of which is now cooling per current Fed policy.) The problem is more demographic and policy driven than just printing the money for the sake of the demand at the time. MMT is not to blame for the current inflation cycle.
Everything is great until the day "You have to pay the piper" The next great reset will happen one day. When the Mother Of All Bubbles burst it will get really ugly. No one knows when and what will make it burst.
The biggest problem is the generation of traders who have no experience with a normal interest rate environment. Everything is overvalued just like the 1920s.
Trading is about the book you little worm 🪱. Not about interest rates
I wasn't financial free until my 40’s and I’m still in my 40’s, bought my third house already, earn on a monthly through passive income, and got 4 out of 5 goals, just hope it encourages someone's that it doesn’t matter if you don’t have any of them right now, you can start TODAY regardless your age INVEST and change your future! Investing in the financial market is a grand choice I made.
Hello, I’m 37 and I am not worth much yet , please help me out. Bought my first house last month and I can't seem to make any other smart investment.
{}That's true I know Barymoer. I met him at a conference in New York in 2022 where he introduced us to his business strategy, he helped me cover my student loans with ease and so many more to be mentioned
Now I enjoy weekly income which I never thought was possible in the financial market
How's He contacted. I really need his assistance
Can anyone please assist with his contact details ?
The stock market bull run is finished, but I'm unsure about how soon things will become worse, whether stocks will immediately rebound, continue to slide, or swing in a small range for a few weeks. It's imperative that I build my $250k reserve.
Despite my faith in your counsel, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to build anything up. Before the downturn, I had already spent too much time in the hole. How does the investment process work?
Because I have a variety of professions, I do not have a single fund that I invest in. I definitely don't act that way. I act in a manner that is modeled after Solchange LTD, an established financial institution that holds a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) license. Since then, my returns have increased quickly in contrast to the IRA's development over time. just their professions use what I have; just a small number of really specialized firms.
How amazing is that? I wish to collaborate with them if they have such exceptional talent. I continue to miss 20% of the time even when I use a MAM account to copy deals. What is the best way to get in touch with them?
The most competent and trustworthy company to date has been SolchangeLTD. You may locate them online by performing a company name search since they have a sizable following and lots of investors. These days, the best method to enter the market is to study, research, be patient, and seek guidance when required. I have stayed away from all of the issues that the erratic market presents.
Given their fiduciary duty, I have faith that they will act in my best interests. They seem to have a lot of expertise. Their goal and objective, years of accomplishment, and ratings were all quite good when I looked through their web portfolio, which I found. I've already spoken out to them.
I’m reading his book fooled by randomness right now! Hilarious thing is that he makes fun of journalists and TV personalities like these throughout the entire book. But I guess he’s humble enough to say that he’s not any better
Humble and NNT. Two words not often seen together lol
Housing market is going to pop. Too much debt. Also student loans are next. 😎
He said Real Estate but not which type. Office is being, and will be crushed. Single family house prices will RISE. 80% of the homes in America have NO mortgage, or a rate between 3% - 4%. Additionally, supply of new homes is the lowest on record.
The USA’s fiscal “deficit” is actually private sector income (double entry accounting). By the same token, a fiscal surplus is actually a private sector deficit (a loss of income for individuals and private companies), and who would wish to be poorer?
The money for fiscal spending was not borrowed and is thus not owed. Even treasuries are mere savings vehicles, honored by the US Treasury, and the money to pay them comes from the same place as fiscal spending: thin air. If “the debt” was real, the ‘debt ceiling’ couldn’t be moved at will (except it has, 70+ times), nor has the USA ever reneged on a treasury security, and cannot renege *involuntarily* (key word)
Rate hikes cause inflation as well as unemployment, since it makes money more expensive, and 95% of the money supply is bank credit. The decrease in the money supply caused by higher rates (which is deflationary) is massively off-set with the higher price setting of money (which is what an interest rate hike is). Looking at historical data, when overlapping inflation with rate hikes, you'll see that rate hikes precede inflation the overwhelming majority of the time, going back to the 1930s.
Didn't this conversation take place many months ago? Why is this clip being presented/ uploaded on 30-JUN-2023 as if this happened yesterday?
I thought the "Black Swan" was a movie with Natalie Portman....kids..????
what was the last sentence
really good interview
Taleb is like
Theory: "the problem is this and this and this..."
What to do then: "dont know"
Selling the future funding in real estate I saw in action in Camas, WA in 2020. It was scary to see. Literal billboards up on new development sites advertising it. “It may seem like this property is over valued, but you will also be able to resell it at a more exorbitant price. “
The long era of low interest rates fueled by globalization is over. A lot of folks here commenting don't understand the economics of pricing. Pricing is set when the item changes owners. The cost of capital has gone way up, will not be coming down and this will be reflected in the markets. I am not so sure about US real estate tanking badly because of our demographics. I would like to know how much US residential real estate is owned by investors in foreign countries that are demographically challenged. I remember when Japan's financial system crashed in 1989. Real estate tumbled here in the US for 5 solid years. China is about to take a really hard hit as well as Europe and both have lousy demographics. Our millennial generation are home buyers currently pressuring the real estate market due to the size of their population cohort. Lots of nuance...
isnt this the bot that predicted bitcoin would be under 3k by now?
People forget that Lehman Brothers peaked from January to March 2007, in less than a year it lost 50% of its value and in less than two it disappeared, when a lot of colossus of the financial system are dancing together the dance of death there is no guarantee that they will be taken into account in time before seeing the black swan.
The most absurd greed leads to crises, just look around you, what are the people focused on?
Interest rates are only PART of the problem. Zero percent interest rates allowed assets to falsely appreciate. What I mean by "falsely" is that there was no interest rate ceiling to keep pressure on appreciation that wages/incomes would ultimately not support. In effect, we pulled future asset values that were yrs and yrs if not decades down the road into today's economy and thus the mismatch to incomes/cost. It also allowed consumer debt to rise to nearly 1 trillion! It also allowed cheap market speculation. Add to that the EGREGIOUS cost of higher education/student debt, and you have an entire millennial generation of people that are in massive debt. This is a recipe for disaster. He is exactly spot on when he says it needs to crash because that is the only way it comes back into balance......so the Ivey league Washington types and bankers take us there again.
Milton Friedman Says it's not about interest rates ,but instead the rate of growth of monetary supply ,which has been growing at a rate of -2.2%
@@sonyjoseph5426 Thanks Sony, but I'm not sure I understand the point you are making. I'd like to though, pls explain.
Fabulous comment and dont forget about healthcare.
@@marybusch6182 Or insurance. Health, auto and property. They could be the back breaking straws.
Debt. War. Energy. De-Dollarization dynamics. Ending of world trading distribution system in place since WW2 with more regional trading ahead. Cost of raw materials, transportation, available food. Global warming-natural disasters. Aging infrastructures accross western Capitalist countries. Again populations & rapidly changing demographics around the globe. Think we're in for a cascading set of possible failures-crisis that will all act to catalize & impact accross sectors, accross geographies and accross politcal systems and in financial models in N. America, Europe, Middle East, Central Asia, China & East Asia as well as Anzac region. Some treacherous regional-global waters ahead on the sruface & DEEP down cracks in foundations of systems acrross the globe. Thanx all. Best, Milan
A lot of college students (like me) study some economic theory in the classroom. The problem is most professional 'Economists' are really economic 'alchemists'; they are forever meddling with the numbers to try & somehow beat reality. Things like debt, money, finance, trade, etc have been well defined for thousands of years & operate in very well defined ways. The problem now is the financial 'party' is winding up (for now), and financial 'reality' is taking over again. The next few years will sort out the financial 'fantasists' from the financial realists.
Did you ever wonder why banking is not included in Econ models?
@@danstar455 honestly, no. You've raised an interesting point.
AI/Tech and Real Estate, two of the most interest rate sensitive sectors, are somehow holding up the markets with two more hikes planned. Don't say he didn't warn you.
Banks also are sensitive to interest rates.. those theives need to collapse to some degree. You Give a theif a gun , he can rob a bank , you give a mana bank and he'll rob a counrty
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
It's Nassim Nicholas NOT Nicholas Nassim. If you're going to have a highly esteemed guest on your TV show, at least get his name right.
they forgot student loan debt.
I can't predict the market wish I could but I am proud to say I finally bought the Black Swan a month or two ago. Nicholas Nassim Taleb is one of the most important market people we have.
😂 he's actually not......he's a liar
@@marsenault9683if Naval likes him I trust him lol. Doesn’t mean I trust everything he says as gospel but I think his books are very important.
MMT does make sense. MMT doesn't say that there is no limiting factor. It just ain't what the public thinks it is. The point is that it's not so much a matter of how much money US prints, but what it sirens that money on. If it's too inflate the stick market and the real estate market, then that's bad. And if it's didn't on bridges, education and healthcare, then the return on investment in society will allow debt to be repaid.
You can always keep printing money... untill its worthless.
Avoid Real estate is that reference to commercial or residential or both?
People need to diversify into alternative assets having negative or neutral correlations with traditional assets e.g. stocks, bonds, warrants, ETFs etc. That's most effective way to protect your portfolio and wealth from tail risks that Dr. Nassim Taleb is talking about here.
I believe these people are mistaking Keynesian theory with MMT. MMT says you can print until you have inflation, that’s it, and they are right.
You should go to Venezuela and Argentina...
@@romymaranesi4907 why is that?
Nassim is the man
Smart guy… but can anyone “predict” the markets!?
Great question on what to do now?
Amen.
Be very careful once younstart hearing people talk about new eras. Rates could just as easily be cut quickly if the economy enters a downturn.
Nassim is about to melt faces
Love the book!
Anybody else seen a noticeable uptick in police giving speeding tickets over the past few weeks?
basically, do not leverage yourself to buy real estate, tech related to AI and stocks in general unless you have puts in place to hedge. Why? Because all indicators are pointing at this market CRASHING.... Just as soon as the big boys finish deleveraging and can leave the mom and pops holding the bag... Keep an eye on options expirations and the call to put ratios because they are already shifting.
You must have missed the opportunity this past year.
Bet you were buying gold and silver
@@Highlander1432 Actually bought some gold and silver a few months ago and sold off the silver for a nice profit. I sold out of the broader market back at 37,000 and have been waiting for the crash to buy back in.
and guess what? welcome to new era :DDD
😀Haven't heard a coherent thought from this guy ever
Has he ever shown his returns? He's been telling ppl what to do with their money for long enough.. would be nice to know if he's following his own advice and how it's going for him. This donkey has been bearish on Tesla.. One of the best performing stocks ever 🤦♂️
"The risk is in front of us"
How can risk be in the past?
He means that it's very visible as compared to hidden risk. Not that the risk is in the future.
The strength of the dollar is determined by demand, which is declining globally. This is basic logic and a simple fact. It's mind boggling how simple Americans look at things. People live in a bubble by design.
Nassim is the GOAT
If you're new to investing he may look like the goat. If you're experienced you know how to recognize a fraud
100% agree stocks, real estate, start ups all overvalued
You can make a case for MMT? We got up to 9%+ inflation. It failed. Also, economic consequences take time to happen. The real estate market peaked in 2006. At that time it was already apparent ( to astute investors like Paulson and Burry) that the damage had been done and there would be a reckoning. That reckoning took 2 years to happen. We have only seen the beginning - high inflation, then then there will be the eventual recession.
MMT depends methodologically on an assumption that the money printed is then invested by the government productively. That's the core problem whatever ideological bent one has.
Investors can’t predict the future, bearish periods automatically give way for a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a new profitable uptrend. I have come across articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to put on a watch list or buy at the moment?
It's precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don't have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@@kaylawood9053 The uncertainties accompanying this present market is more reasons I have my daily investment decisions guided by a portfolio-coach seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy , coupled with the exclusive analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform. Netted over $550k in return on investment, since...
@@mesutserim1595 That's fascinating. How can I contact your coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
Let the man speak FFS
You making money like insane... Hope someday I will be like you)
Nassim looks like a younger Mick Fleetwood!
According to our sources, he's net worth is negative nowadays.
Max was here
I don't disagree with what he is saying. However doesn't that defeat the randomness factor? and Yea interest rates are high but reits will issue out more shares either prefers or common to lower the interest rate impact. They will stop paying dividends sell property's. I'm sure everything is over inflated but welcome to your utopia you've arrived. I will definitely keep that long tail covered. 😃
He is alive!
Structural 💯 ...and not a single sausage wants to do anything to address it...
That interviewing was appalling. The first guy kept asking Distinguished Prof. Taleb questions and then proceeded to cut him off before he could fully answer.
Stop interrupting this wise man.
🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯
These interviewers make a conversation so freaking awkward and fragmented. Ask a few questions, let the guest speak.
4:26 be careful buddy
There are some things that everyone should be aware of by now. Working with a financial professional could truly help you get ready for life. Since I was actively cashing out from my portfolio and finally made over 370k just in the first quarter while everyone else was whining about the downturn, I'm delighted I was able to contact my coach Rodger Michael Karl early this year...
I'm grateful for the advice. Finding your coach online was a straightforward process. I looked him up online before we scheduled our phone call. He appears knowledgeable based on his online resume.
It's not IF it's WHEN that will happen
We will continue to move from crisis to crisis because no one in positions of power can think long term. It's all instant gratification and kicking the can down the road. Now we've run out of road.
You mean instant corruption
These guys always say that Doom is near. Once in twenty years they will be right. Live in the now. Always be ready for potential down turns.
Being scams is none of my portion since I met this man I invest $7,000 and make $25,850 dollars every 11 days my life changed since I met this man😃😃
Please am new to this and I've incurred so much loss in investing.
The young guy was trying so hard to prove he's smart too. Actually turned out stupid!