This episode is sponsored by Direxion. Visit www.direxion.com/product/breakfast-commodities-strategy-etf to learn more about Direxion's new Breakfast Commodities Strategy ETF.
I listened to this on Spotify earlier, and immediately listened again. Definitely your sharpest guest to date in my humble meaningless opinion. Great show guys.
Best episode yet! I can listen to Simon talk for hours! It’s so refreshing to hear someone talk honestly about the way the world really works and who probably doesn’t give a hoot about “being cancelled” for speaking his mind.
Vintage JB on halftime report yesterday. “The consumer is pissed!” “Earnings don’t matter right now! We are in a bear market!!” Epic rant. You tell ‘em JB. Good luck out there. Stay sane and patient. Lots of patience.
What make this show so great is that you all know what you’re talking about. Just about the best evidence of this is that you’re not afraid to say “we don’t know” when that’s the truth.
Brilliant! For those in agreement with the energy bull cycle thesis,,, an excellent undervalued trade is SU (NYSE). An undervalued Canadian/USA vertical integrated energy company. Unlike many oil companies that have to replace their reserve base, SU has long life (20+ years) reserves. No exploration required - all they do is dig it up and refine it.
What wasn't discussed in this podcast is the impending world diesel shortage due to lack of investment in refining capacity over the last decade. This will only turbo charge share prices for integrated companies like Suncor - hence the reason for Mr. Buffett's heavy investment in the O&G industry in recent months. Elliot Management has valued SU shares with a 33% upside return.
THANK YOU for another fantastic episode with a great guest! Being so overweight in oil, gas and pipelines- I SMILED through this whole episode-especially because Simon also loves 2 of my favorite show-Lincoln Lawyer and Outlander :) I'm always so grateful when you have real experts on the show. Now following Simon and will seek out his blog.
Very good guest but he doesn't seem to think renewables wil make a dent which i found laughable. Wind and solar will continue to become more attractive as the technology advances. We'll see huge changes over the next 15 years, which is no time at all. For example he spoke about wind having a capacity factor of 40% (he said efficiency but he means capacity factor - when the wind actually blows) But in the UK we already have offshore farms that do 50%. By 2024 with the installation of haliade X this jumps to 60%+ with the 12-13mw turbines at Dogger Bank. And it keeps going up the bigger the turbines get as they capture more of the low speed wind. China are currently building 16mw turbines. You can see where this is going. Solar will likely have a more difficult time unless advance in perovskites start making it into actual products. Or they can start making cheaper cells with existing materials. The introduction of air source heat pumps is going to be huge as this tech is only now starting to be rolled out on a larger scale. In the UK we all use gas boilers to heat our homes. Air source heat pumps are incredibly efficient converting 1 unit of electric energy into 3 units of heat energy. There are lots of online resources where you can see how renewables are taking a bigger chunk of the total energy mix and this transition is speeding up, not slowing down or staying the same. The dude that got fired from HSBC. He's just guessing. He guesses climate effects will be gradual. He might be right. But it's not really clear what we are seeing. One year there are a few fires in Australia the next the whole country is burning. Gas has been here for a very long time and is going to be here for a very long time. But it's naive to think you know the future. Particularly when you're not up to date on the present.
Wind and Solar was soooo cheap that even TX switched hard and fast. Yes they're having issues now, but overall the state still generally produces a lot of renewables for really cheap but it's their infrastructure and improperly designed incentives and separated grids that cause most of the issues.
I received a K-1 from Enterprise Product Partners. I stressed about it and thought about calling my CPA brother on how to deal with it. I nevertheless just started my taxes and TurboTax asked me if I received a K-1. Why yes, thanks for asking. I then entered a few numbers then three minutes later I was done with it. EPD
The energy rally can't just be beginning, and we're also heading into a recession. Those are polar opposite opinions. Choose one. It doesn't matter how tight supply is, a recession will destroy enough demand to bring energy prices down. It always does. Inflation's back will break as soon as the consumer's back breaks. And given the terrible CPI read for May, I think we're getting close to that.
I agree. I just see extrapolation. The invisible hand will come out of no where and flip the rhetoric on a dime. I went heavy into commodities 2 years ago, most of my net worth at the time. I’ve been done riding that train for a few months. There are significantly more intelligent places to park cash in opportunities the violatility has created. Telling retail to buy oil now is absurdly inappropriate in my opinion.
Energy bull started in q1, I cleared 14 energy trades last quarter with a 104% avg realized gain across all of em, so far this quarter 5 trades with a 58% R.G overall. Might be a bit late to the party boys
“Data says we’re clearly not in a recession” when 1q gdp was solidly negative and 2Q per Atlanta fed gdp now is at 0.9% and trending lower is quite the bold statement.
“Inflating away the debt” is why real estate does so well long term. You’re getting triple arbitrage, with debt debasement an asset/commodity inflation, along with rental/cash flow inflation. Sure taxes and maintenance go up, but the largest part of your payment stays fixed.
@@windycitybeats6724 Arbitrage: In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalize on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. 🤣 what word should I have used teacher 👨🏫 Within the context of real estate, that’s exactly what arbitrage is…
@@Joelegolvan Within the context of real estate, an arbitrage doesn't exist bc you can't SIMULTANEAOSLY buy and sell homes in different places to reap the price discrepancies of an inefficient market. Ex of a real Arbitrage: sell bond coupons out 10 years, simultaneously use the cash to buy 10-year coupon bonds, the cash flows will offset. So you put up zero capital, take zero risk, and reap unlimited profits until the yields inevitably correct themselves. It's not like you are selling a 2-bedroom home in LA and buying an identical 2-bedroom in Chicago and swapping them out to flatten your position simultaneously with zero risk while leaving you with a profit. So an Arbitrage is not the correct word to use there but "a great deal" would work
@@windycitybeats6724 Sounds like you’ve never heard of the term rental arbitrage, this does not require selling or buying a property. If I’m understanding correctly your main argument is arbitrage cannot exist without buying or selling. This of course is ignoring the dividend/rental income that does not require buying or selling. Real estate arbitrage it’s confusing to stock/bond investors, because those are generally one dimensional investments. Simply buying low and selling high. With real estate you have multiple forms of arbitrage because real estate is a multiple dimension asset. Just guessing, but I’m assuming you don’t have rentals short or long term, if you think arbitrage can only exist when you buy or sell an asset. Look up rental arbitrage and see if your definition stands. I get it, this is mainly a stock investment channel, If this was a real estate channel, this “debate” wouldn’t have started. 🤦♂️ The different levels of arbitrage are discussed regularly on re channels.
Can someone please answer my questions? Was there a recession in September 2018 - December 2018? If so, why does no one acknowledge it? GPD per y-charts below. March 31, 2019 (2.40%) December 31, 2018 (0.90%) September 30, 2018 (1.90%) June 30, 2018 (3.40%) March 31, 2018 (3.10%)
I think all guests demand respect and attention. The elder millennial is on Twitter or checking stock charts while josh and the guest are eye to eye. Get off your mac dude
2% because much lower than that and you risk deflation (not good over the long term, look at Japan) and much higher than that the price increases start to hurt. 2% is a pretty good target that doesn't really hurt anyone
Guys, I can’t easily think of the term, but you need to invite a ‘climate crisis bull’ to the show. There are huge changes incoming and some of this episode could quickly look rather dated. I think the issue should not be giggled away.
Im in favor of micro nuclear plants with size enough to offset wind and solar plants. Zero co2 and low enough nuke waste. Could we take nuke waste 50 kms above atmosphere and "throw" it in the direction of the sun?
The world doesn’t run on Twitter and it’s difficult for josh to understand that despite what AOC says it’s impossible to run the world in solar and wind . It just is . You’re seeing that in Germany .
watching americans talking about beligerence, holy shit. europe is riddle with ngo's and american lobby industry. kennan warned more than 20 years ago what would happen if this industry continued to destroy all the work diplomacy had done. just take a look at what things like the german marshal fund think tank does. us gas and oil industry just cannot compete with cheap energy coming from russia
This episode is sponsored by Direxion. Visit www.direxion.com/product/breakfast-commodities-strategy-etf to learn more about Direxion's new Breakfast Commodities Strategy ETF.
I listened to this on Spotify earlier, and immediately listened again. Definitely your sharpest guest to date in my humble meaningless opinion. Great show guys.
Nick Colas was excellent as well
This guy is SMART.
Thats arguable which says a lot about some of the guests on here , great show
Yeah this guy is great
Yep, Simon is brilliant. I read his blogs/podcasts (on the SL Advisors site) religiously.
Best episode yet! I can listen to Simon talk for hours! It’s so refreshing to hear someone talk honestly about the way the world really works and who probably doesn’t give a hoot about “being cancelled” for speaking his mind.
Vintage JB on halftime report yesterday. “The consumer is pissed!” “Earnings don’t matter right now! We are in a bear market!!” Epic rant. You tell ‘em JB. Good luck out there. Stay sane and patient. Lots of patience.
Great episode. Learned a lot and Simon's absolutely right with his takes on energy security and climate change.
Best guest I've seen on this podcast yet. Really enjoyed this one 👍
1:04:50 Simon: "You've got a hierarchy of needs... food, security, shelter, what's at the very top?"
Josh: "Netflix"
Michael: "Bored apes"
@SimonLack did great on The Compound with flawless insight.
What make this show so great is that you all know what you’re talking about. Just about the best evidence of this is that you’re not afraid to say “we don’t know” when that’s the truth.
Simon's great! Surprised I hadn't come across him yet... Great episode as always!
Great show ! I listen every week. I had to actually watch it on youtube, first time ever watching.
such a good episode I listened to the podcast first, and then re-watched the entire video
Great guest, hope you have him on again.
One of your best guests. Thank you and keep it coming.
Brilliant! For those in agreement with the energy bull cycle thesis,,, an excellent undervalued trade is SU (NYSE). An undervalued Canadian/USA vertical integrated energy company. Unlike many oil companies that have to replace their reserve base, SU has long life (20+ years) reserves. No exploration required - all they do is dig it up and refine it.
What wasn't discussed in this podcast is the impending world diesel shortage due to lack of investment in refining capacity over the last decade. This will only turbo charge share prices for integrated companies like Suncor - hence the reason for Mr. Buffett's heavy investment in the O&G industry in recent months. Elliot Management has valued SU shares with a 33% upside return.
GLTA
Excellent,most info per minute out there bar none !
Another terrific show guys. Thank you for putting the timestamps in the description.
Excellent show! Amazing guest!
Love it guys. Great 50th episode
epic as always
Energy top confirmed
Thank You for all of your videos that you did.
Great show guys! Simon was a terrific guest
I love this guy. I agree with word that comes out of his mouth.
Phenomenal guest as usual
THANK YOU for another fantastic episode with a great guest! Being so overweight in oil, gas and pipelines- I SMILED through this whole episode-especially because Simon also loves 2 of my favorite show-Lincoln Lawyer and Outlander :) I'm always so grateful when you have real experts on the show. Now following Simon and will seek out his blog.
Cheers fellas. Solid.
I'm the number one Simon Lack guy now. This guy rips
Brightest guy to appear on this show. Great work guys.
I agree. Best guest so far.
Great show guys!
Great guest. Important insights into to the energy sector.
Great Episode!
Bowie never ceases to amaze me.
I’m listening very intently and I’ve heard some words repeated that everybody needs to start paying attention to.
Josh! you absolutely stole the show on cnbc this Friday, seeeshhhhh!
Nice to see Batnick on here when he isn't playing NoHo Hank on Barry.
Very good guest but he doesn't seem to think renewables wil make a dent which i found laughable. Wind and solar will continue to become more attractive as the technology advances. We'll see huge changes over the next 15 years, which is no time at all.
For example he spoke about wind having a capacity factor of 40% (he said efficiency but he means capacity factor - when the wind actually blows) But in the UK we already have offshore farms that do 50%. By 2024 with the installation of haliade X this jumps to 60%+ with the 12-13mw turbines at Dogger Bank. And it keeps going up the bigger the turbines get as they capture more of the low speed wind. China are currently building 16mw turbines. You can see where this is going.
Solar will likely have a more difficult time unless advance in perovskites start making it into actual products. Or they can start making cheaper cells with existing materials.
The introduction of air source heat pumps is going to be huge as this tech is only now starting to be rolled out on a larger scale. In the UK we all use gas boilers to heat our homes. Air source heat pumps are incredibly efficient converting 1 unit of electric energy into 3 units of heat energy.
There are lots of online resources where you can see how renewables are taking a bigger chunk of the total energy mix and this transition is speeding up, not slowing down or staying the same.
The dude that got fired from HSBC. He's just guessing. He guesses climate effects will be gradual. He might be right. But it's not really clear what we are seeing. One year there are a few fires in Australia the next the whole country is burning.
Gas has been here for a very long time and is going to be here for a very long time. But it's naive to think you know the future. Particularly when you're not up to date on the present.
Wind and Solar was soooo cheap that even TX switched hard and fast. Yes they're having issues now, but overall the state still generally produces a lot of renewables for really cheap but it's their infrastructure and improperly designed incentives and separated grids that cause most of the issues.
I received a K-1 from Enterprise Product Partners. I stressed about it and thought about calling my CPA brother on how to deal with it. I nevertheless just started my taxes and TurboTax asked me if I received a K-1. Why yes, thanks for asking. I then entered a few numbers then three minutes later I was done with it. EPD
Same with me. K-1's are a snap with TurboTax.
First off~ Let's go Lightening ⚡
Clever guy…good guest
Would missiles grow like carrots or more of a tree type situation? 1:06:10
What song is the intro? It’s pretty awesome
The energy rally can't just be beginning, and we're also heading into a recession. Those are polar opposite opinions. Choose one. It doesn't matter how tight supply is, a recession will destroy enough demand to bring energy prices down. It always does. Inflation's back will break as soon as the consumer's back breaks. And given the terrible CPI read for May, I think we're getting close to that.
I agree. I just see extrapolation. The invisible hand will come out of no where and flip the rhetoric on a dime.
I went heavy into commodities 2 years ago, most of my net worth at the time. I’ve been done riding that train for a few months.
There are significantly more intelligent places to park cash in opportunities the violatility has created.
Telling retail to buy oil now is absurdly inappropriate in my opinion.
Welcome to stagflation. If the cut in demand isn’t enough to bring the price of energy down you get persistent inflation during a recession.
Great guest
Netflix is a joke compared to this channel. Sometimes i rewatch, so much info to absorb. Now reading the Smil book, just Wow.
Energy bull started in q1, I cleared 14 energy trades last quarter with a 104% avg realized gain across all of em, so far this quarter 5 trades with a 58% R.G overall. Might be a bit late to the party boys
When in Austin, TX, you have got to check out Jewboy Burgers, yes, that is the actual name, on Airport Blvd. The Carne Asada Burrito is legit.
It must be good, I've heard this countless times now, and I haven't been to Austin yet.
“Data says we’re clearly not in a recession” when 1q gdp was solidly negative and 2Q per Atlanta fed gdp now is at 0.9% and trending lower is quite the bold statement.
niche skills and knowledge are an inflation hedge.
Josh, you made me laugh with “I’m ESG curious”. Great show. Ty!
Another one🔥🔥🔥
“Inflating away the debt” is why real estate does so well long term. You’re getting triple arbitrage, with debt debasement an asset/commodity inflation, along with rental/cash flow inflation. Sure taxes and maintenance go up, but the largest part of your payment stays fixed.
Not going to argue.
That's not what an arbitrage is
@@windycitybeats6724
Arbitrage:
In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalize on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded.
🤣 what word should I have used teacher 👨🏫
Within the context of real estate, that’s exactly what arbitrage is…
@@Joelegolvan Within the context of real estate, an arbitrage doesn't exist bc you can't SIMULTANEAOSLY buy and sell homes in different places to reap the price discrepancies of an inefficient market.
Ex of a real Arbitrage: sell bond coupons out 10 years, simultaneously use the cash to buy 10-year coupon bonds, the cash flows will offset.
So you put up zero capital, take zero risk, and reap unlimited profits until the yields inevitably correct themselves.
It's not like you are selling a 2-bedroom home in LA and buying an identical 2-bedroom in Chicago and swapping them out to flatten your position simultaneously with zero risk while leaving you with a profit. So an Arbitrage is not the correct word to use there but "a great deal" would work
@@windycitybeats6724 Sounds like you’ve never heard of the term rental arbitrage, this does not require selling or buying a property. If I’m understanding correctly your main argument is arbitrage cannot exist without buying or selling. This of course is ignoring the dividend/rental income that does not require buying or selling.
Real estate arbitrage it’s confusing to stock/bond investors, because those are generally one dimensional investments. Simply buying low and selling high.
With real estate you have multiple forms of arbitrage because real estate is a multiple dimension asset. Just guessing, but I’m assuming you don’t have rentals short or long term, if you think arbitrage can only exist when you buy or sell an asset.
Look up rental arbitrage and see if your definition stands. I get it, this is mainly a stock investment channel, If this was a real estate channel, this “debate” wouldn’t have started. 🤦♂️ The different levels of arbitrage are discussed regularly on re channels.
Can someone please answer my questions? Was there a recession in September 2018 - December 2018? If so, why does no one acknowledge it?
GPD per y-charts below.
March 31, 2019 (2.40%)
December 31, 2018 (0.90%)
September 30, 2018 (1.90%)
June 30, 2018 (3.40%)
March 31, 2018 (3.10%)
So long XLE?
XLE, VDE, yeah you know ME
HUN - Natural gas
Josh. Why are you still with CNBC? @TheCompound is so far above them in content.
But the stretch from 200dma is huge XLE
Josh should affect a halo and wrap himself in white sheets. Maybe adding a little eye makeup.
That's the top, lol 😜
Doesn't gold have 3 paper contracts per ounce of physical (if someone were to take delivery)?
We keep 5% of our portfolio in physical gold
No one us gonna take delivery lmao. It's irrelevant
AR Antero Resources !
How long until Battnick removes quartr and y charts stickers from laptop? I give it a year. Sponsor drops, so will the stickers haha 😆
to be fair fed cutting rates wouldve been fine if it werent for ukraine and supply chain not clearing up.
Please bring back Nick colas
I think all guests demand respect and attention. The elder millennial is on Twitter or checking stock charts while josh and the guest are eye to eye. Get off your mac dude
Why 2% ? Because the American Public doesn’t feel or notice that in everyday life.
2% because much lower than that and you risk deflation (not good over the long term, look at Japan) and much higher than that the price increases start to hurt. 2% is a pretty good target that doesn't really hurt anyone
Del Preston WW2. Iykyk
this guy no doubt knows energy
Guys, I can’t easily think of the term, but you need to invite a ‘climate crisis bull’ to the show. There are huge changes incoming and some of this episode could quickly look rather dated. I think the issue should not be giggled away.
its about expereiences. said nobody with money and everyone thats broke!
Walgreens Boots should be removed from the DJIA before intel.
He watches the expression on your face like a gambler at the table.
this is the best ep since the Nick Colas ep?
Im in favor of micro nuclear plants with size enough to offset wind and solar plants. Zero co2 and low enough nuke waste. Could we take nuke waste 50 kms above atmosphere and "throw" it in the direction of the sun?
It's more dangerous to launch than to store
Sorry, but a recession will kill the 'energy super cycle'.
True, energy has never survived an S&P recession
28:00 What data?...... What Data?...
. WHAT DATA DO YOU HAVE THAT WE DON'T TO DETERMINE IF WE ARE IN A RECESSION OR NOT!?? Nobody knows.
Aye mang lemme borrow a dolla
Full of spam great show
Gold down vs other commodities is indicative of capital consumption
Maybe someday you guys can actually do some DD on $ORGN.
Grantham is part of the Davos crowd, if only because of his insane views on alternative energy. So out of touch
B&L was a spinoff, not even a true IPO
The world doesn’t run on Twitter and it’s difficult for josh to understand that despite what AOC says it’s impossible to run the world in solar and wind . It just is . You’re seeing that in Germany .
watching americans talking about beligerence, holy shit. europe is riddle with ngo's and american lobby industry. kennan warned more than 20 years ago what would happen if this industry continued to destroy all the work diplomacy had done. just take a look at what things like the german marshal fund think tank does. us gas and oil industry just cannot compete with cheap energy coming from russia
Bitcoin is up over 300% since we started calling it an inflation hedge in 2020. Outperformed everything else.
Trash 🗑
ESG is BS
No shit, you guys late as fuck. Missed it completely
That intro is always fire
Nice to see Batnick on here when he isn't playing NoHo Hank on Barry.