Rate Cuts, Where Are All The BUYERS? 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- After all the big news of the much anticipated interest rates cuts, what actually happened and what affect did it have on the Canadian Real Estate Market. I go over the May Statistics for most areas in Canada, including Montreal, Quebec, Toronto, Ontario, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Victoria, BC, and Vancouver. #ratecuts #interestrates #realestatetips #canadarealestate #economy #jonflynn #investing #softlanding #realestatecrash
Links/references:
financialpost....
globalnews.ca/...
financialpost....
www.cp24.com/n...
macleans.ca/ec...
vancouver.city...
The belief that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates was the driving force behind the entire economic chaos. What should we do now that we have a situation where interest rates are crashing? At this point, how would you suggest that I safely allocate $300k?
Although the market is currently volatile, aren't the current valuations a result of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and low interest rates? Therefore, my recommendation is that you consult a financial advisor who can give you entry and exit points for the shares that you are interested in.
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
How can I participate in this? I aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
@@williamDonaldson432 Impressive can you share more info?
Impressive can you share more info?
@@foreverlaura-fq4eu There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Sharon Ann Meny for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I am a realtor with Remax on Vancouver Island. I have four listings and am averaging about 3 showings per month TOTAL. It's very quiet.
Because listing prices are unaffordable for current interest rates.
Owners will do anything but drop their prices - the one thing they need to do. When people are gagging for .25% interest rate change, something needs to give.
It's on fire out in Markham and Stouffville overbids are now leading to large price increases as inventory has dwindled down to near zero.
Island listings are 35% over realistic price. Realtors still want to earn $50k per sale. Banks holding billions in non-performing loans.
A "Booming economy" is about to mean something much different than it did last year.
yep
Nothing will fix housing mess in Canada especially Ontario.
agreed, leaving is the best plan
The fix will involve a lot of pain.
BC is worse
@@XMG3 Actually not true. In Ontario the local Chinese drive prices. In B.C. the foreign Chinese drive prices but the real real estate bubble imploded in China meaning in the future no money will come into B.C. from China because everyone in China is now broke. Therefore home prices in Ontario will go higher while home prices in B.C. go lower.
@@parkerbohnn that hasn't happened yet. BC prices are still off to the moon even with no buyers
Left BC sixteen years ago, been unaffordable for a very long time.
Thank you, Jon
It's hard to predict the future, but it looks like in the fall, we will have more opportunities to buy here in BC
Thanks for covering stats from so many regions!
This is almost comedic the way Canadians talk about real estate. I do not have a t.v. But I hear there are e plethora of shows on renovations, flipping and all the rest of the nonsense that influence the people. Before the pandemic real estate was in trouble for quite a few years and the commercial real estate market was ready to take a tumble as far back as 2015. They were simply able to kick the can down the road this far. But what happened to the residential market during the pandemic will be a study for psychologists for years to come. This is not a demand issue, is a psychological issue.
The entirety of Canadian society believes the only way you can get wealth is by forcing someone else to work and taking their wealth.
It's the most depressing country I've ever been in by a mile.
@@edubmfMany don't even know how to do things.
@@edubmfwtf do you mean capitalism? Free market? I don’t understand what you’re saying?
@@edubmf ponzi scheme
Very few people try to catch a falling knife when it hits the floor you will see the market bounce but who really knows where the floor is.
Love love LOVE the charts! Thank you so much for the detailed analysis. Could you please add horizontal lines to the visuals? It’d be easier to read, thanks.
Great video, as always - thank you Jon!
Just a minor suggestion: given the current prices (how high they are and how little they have come down) maybe removing one green bar for price declines in your recipe? Other than that, love it!
The thing I find most worrying is if when continue to creep down the rate cuts when nobody knows when the camels back is gonna break and by that time those indicators come it will already be too late and inflation will go up once again
why do you refererence prices from the peak and not from the long term average or as a ratio of net earnings?
You do a great job, Jon! Thanks!
Do you have any thoughts on why Quebec and Montreal is at an all time high and what the expectations for that market are for the next year?
It does seem to behave differently than (most of) the rest of Canada.
Just read an article ref delinquencies from the toronto star. More value in severely delinquent mortgages in ontario then all time.
Sources who called Jun cut said 2x 0.25 bps ea maybe Q4 and or Q1 next yr. Prob not just economy. Layoffs and sticky inflation factors in RE? Bankers say 2026 renewals prob 20% - 50% incr.
I have seen tons of comments about how all Canadians are broke but some Canadians are sitting on loads of cash! Canada’s house hold savings is at a record $350 billion. Some are just sitting in the sidelines waiting for a bargain but it’s been a long wait.
Looking at the data for the whole of 2023, Canadian households added $637 billion in financial assets (up 7% year-over-year) and $174 billion in non-financial assets (+1.8%). Their liabilities were up 3.4% to more than $98 billion, but this was the slowest amount of annual debt accumulation since 1990.
It means people are sitting on a mountain of cash but not borrowing.
No it’s not more like credit cards spiking
@@dman9416 yes many are in debt but data shows Canadians are good savers.
Both things are true... Poorer Canadians are struggling to afford food and housing, and this pool of Canadians is growing. However, Canadians in the top 20% are still comfortable and saving more money. This is what comes from growing wealth inequality.
@@hrmprofessor I think it's more a cause of wealth inequality than a result of it. Most people don't want 100% wealth equality that would mean they'd never make any more money than they make now. Most people choose a wealth distribution like Sweden about 10 years ago (there was an American broadcaster who asked Americans which chart resembled the US and which one was the best one. The overwhelming majority of Republicans and Democrats thought the US was much less unequal than it was and chose Sweden's distribution at the time as what would be optimal.)
When you have spiking inflation driven by a necessary good like housing people need to get raises to survive. Some people already own houses so they don't need the money to survive, but they do the same job and so they get the raise. People who don't own houses and don't benefit from rent control for whatever reason absolutely need the money and may be living paycheck to paycheck. So people doing the same job end up diverging in their wealth accumulation despite making potentially identical salaries for identical work.
WRT housing the problem is the mass speculation and it is likely mainly driven by people in the middle rather than upper classes because it involved paying way way more than houses were worth and rich people are generally less likely to make those kinds of errors. It is also at least partially driven by people from Authoritarian countries who want to park money somewhere their government can't get it in case they fall out of favour and have to flee (generally this is related to China). If your a millionaire who the Chinese government likes you know they may one day choose not to like you and if you can buy a house in Canada for $1M and flee there to escape persecution you don' t necessarily care if the house is only really worth $500k. Generally though middle class people saw an easy reliable way to make money and bought into it en masse, which eventually during COVID lead to people being concerned they'd permanently be priced out of even owning a principal residence and using their savings from not being able ot spend much money due to the Pandemic to buy houses for even more money. Like all bubbles early adopters made bank mid adopters made good returns and late adopters are currently holding very very expensive unprofitable houses that are in the process of blowing up in their faces. Because Housing is an inelastic essential good everyone who couldn't participate because of age or lack of money was left behind.
Anyway it certainly is a messed up situation but it is a driver of inequality not the other way around.
Unfortunately those are the people who left Canada.
I overheard a man at home depot saying " I told the guy I'd do the job cheaper than any quote he gets" 😢
I was there getting the cheapest tile adhesive I could find for myself to tile my bathroom floor. Can't afford to hire anyone. It may not be perfect and my back is killing me!
That’s why Home Depot exist…. DIYErs want to save some money by doing it themselves. It’s been like that for decades, not only you and not just now.
@Observer168 ok? I never said anything remotely close to just discovering Home Depot! But thanks for your expertise on Home Depot! I feel so much more informed now lol
It's not that hard, you can even do a better job, it'll just take you longer. Worst part is taking the old tiles out, I gave a strong young guy $200 to do it. Or you can pay $2000 for the whole job and you have time to go hiking or drinking or watch TV.
Ur lucky ur handy. I’m living in a dumpster that’s breaking down somewhere everyday
Construction in slow too. My boys are now off work… with the unions anyways
Yup, people asked for a rate hike to slow down real estate and the effect is hundreds of thousands of construction workers out of work.
@@Observer168 slow construction, where? Ontario is booming
Question for "the Canadian" - Why do you accept a coalition government? Did you vote for this?
Why is Jagmeet allowed to walk around without any difficult questions asked by the media?
and the most concerning question for the Canadian,,,,,anyone making a Tims Run ??? .
right now they are accepting 11 treason candidates in parliament.
they will accept *anything* you can imagine
Can't afford Tim's anymore...
Luv your Channel!❤Thank you soo much! Watching from Brantford🙂
You are so welcome!
There are a lot of buyers in Greater Vancouver, but they need prices to come down before they can even offer. Only excellent, well-priced homes are selling in the GVRD.
This country is such a dumpster fire.
Imagine how much worse it would be without Justin 😂
yep, and the government keeps trying to gaslight everyone saying things have never been better
At the end of the day gaslighting never works. It may have a temporary effect, but in the end everyone rejects it and wakes up to the reality around them. The question is what can we do now to fix the problem?
That's really overstating the case. Come on, man. Have a sense of proportion at least.
@@Joe-mz6dc pitch forks and torches
All the buyers are in Markham and the inventory is down almost to zero as prices are being bid to the moon.
Many Thanks Jon. Keeping honest and unbiased. Really appreciate your content and integrity.
I sold my home in the fall of 2022 in the Okanagan and am sitting on cash waiting for the bottom or thereabouts. I think it will take 2 more years.
Only in Canada 238K will buy a some rice and kraft dinner packages in retirement
Hi John.. How can someone find listings that are bank sales and are relatively cheaper?
Every normal spring contractors are busy... not this year.
Not last year.
They don't cut rates until things are really bad.
Normally, this time of year we would have had 100 leads by now. With 3 websites i have had 5. 4 didnt qualify... one was a small job, and they cancelled an hour before the presentation.
Yup, construction workers get hit hardest from the rate hikes.
Thank you Mr. Flynn. Very informative. Kind regards
Good morning/ Thank you for your update👍
In New Brunswick, it's still insanely abysmal. Prices not coming down, low wages here, nobody can afford anything, even with good careers, because everybody is flocking here out of desperation.
LOL.... prices aren't coming down.... YET !
stay tuned as 4.5 Million Mortgages(1 Million NEGAMS) renew here thru 2026.... ALL at far higher rates than when initiated regardless.... with severe ramifications coming for our 65+% consumer spending reliant GDP into recession as people re-allocate to higher Payments.
Look at Canada’s house hold savings. Some Canadians are loaded with cash. Savings is at a record high right now.
@@Observer168 Hey, I can finally agree with you about something! There's LOADS of money around. Some people are struggling, of course, but quite a few aren't.
Yup, friends have been trying to buy in NB but the prices keep going up here. Future looks pretty dim with out of province buyers paying cash and outbidding everyone from here. Not much chance of local young people buying their first home here anymore. They'll rent while they can afford it, then be homeless.
@@Observer168im one of those people and everyone that I know that has cash, isn’t buying anything anytime soon.
The sad reality is that house prices are too high. The reasons are numerous, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how we got here. The economy in each province simply can’t support these prices. The government and the banks have been trying to defer the reality check (negative amortization, really?), but the only solution is lower prices. Homeowners beware.
The people with money stashed away will buy the cheap houses long before the poor will be ready to buy. I would rather have a decent interest rate on my savings but a, willing to buy another house as a investment to rent out to family for a low rental price.
Peel region is rather large. How about the figures for mississauga and Brampton
I hate to say it, but Canada absolutely sucks in every way possible right now. Jagmeet needs to end the coalition and let Canadians voices be heard!
It should be illegal to form a coalition between parties! Does't make sense that it isn't illegal imo, maybe one day it will be.
You suck if you think that way. If you can’t make a lot of money right now - you’re doing something wrong.
@@maxpayne7419 You may not realize it but your comment says a lot about you
@@izzy2116 yes, I love Canada and I’m making a lot of money (because I work very hard for it versus being a whiner).
@@maxpayne7419 OK, boomer,
can you include Winnipeg/manitoba
Rates are falling for the wrong reasons so I don’t think slightly lower rates will make much difference. RE will be dead money for a very long time.
Hi Jon I'm buyer but not for hause price of 1,million dollars scame thats same house was max 3oo,ooo thousand dollars 2018 ,2019 I'm talking about Coburg Trenton, Belleville i will buy for 1 million dollars 4 homes in Europe I'm done with Canada 🇨🇦 teardown special half million dollars no thanks.
For 1 million Canadian pesos 4houses in Europe 😂🐴,maybe in Romania or Moldova , do you follow monetary exchange rate 🙏🏻
Why houses are very highly compared to US?
Quarter point is meaningless. Real estate is beyond insane… won’t make a difference.
Yup, but tons of construction workers have lost their jobs due to cancellations of projects.
I just had a small job done,,,,250 by cheque,,,,170 cash.
Just saying. 😂😂😂
What kind of job
Since when did contractors and handymen not take cash? Nothing new, except maybe the discounts will get better such that it might actually be worth it to pay cash. When times were good, contractors would only offer to cut the sales tax, when they should have also discounted the saved income tax. Not that I would know. I always preferred to pay the tax and claim the deduction.
I used to think we should pay our taxes. Not anymore. Why give our money to a government that just throws it away at anything except what we need in this country. Kind regards
Oh its bad if prices dropped from peak idioticy in Victoria
Thank you!
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Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn't know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
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Sincerely speaking., I will continue to trade and stick to Maria Thorne daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.
Isn't that the same Mrs Maria Thorne that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well. I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
When rates drop 1% this year are you going to bring out the old one percent ten percent rule you loved to talk about when rates were increasing? Or is that only a rule when it fits your market crash narrative? Prices should go up 10% right?
I'm stopping all spending on anything that's not essential, I mean all.
And buy used when you can
Do folks even realize that bank employees are getting "special" mortgage rates? I.e. 2%. Do people realize how many bank employees there are? Oh, and this special discounted mortgage rate EXTENDS to their immediate family. Yuppers.... friend who works for RBC just confirmed this special offer was extended to her daughter, enabling her to get into the market. So major inequality right now. Rich are getting richer, so are those with the right contacts or in the right place at the right time. The rest are SOL.
I want to have rental property, so I still keep in touch with people that have no small rental property in Saskatoon and basically they’re losing money because the payments on the property just are not covering rent
Mayt be nothing that rate cut, but it is the first hope.
What is a Nothingburger? A 25 basis point rate cut!
I just want to point out a different fact of why price fall with the interest rate, everyone knows it's going to go down so even if price stays the same the cost price will be lower in the future, so why would you purchase now, it's the same problem as with deflation. The issues that can spiral is if price start to fall and the rate too well, then people wait more and then don't trust the market the spiral goes more than you have the boom and bust chart.
Mortgage rates came down like 0.15%. Not enough to change anything...
For majority of people it makes no sense to measure prices from all time high as this was a short period of time with low sales. If you look YOY prices didn’t go down in 2022 2023 in most places in BC
Jon needs to pedal his doomsday narrative which is why he only uses stats that make the market look as bad as possible.
Investors are fleeing in a big numbers
Send out the balloons. I finally have a showing tomorrow night. Hope he doesn’t cancel… lol or worse not show up and not cancel
Send 2017 pricing asappp . Been waiting on the sidelines since 2021
I've been waiting since 2015 LOL and it's just getting worst as the years go by so I've given up on getting a house. My mom made the mistake of selling my childhood house in 2021. Now I'm really never gonna get a house lol
we were $52K away last Jan, won't be long now.
we should do a collab sometime
@@D4rkBl4deexpect 2015 prices by 2026
I tried the waiting thing and I lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Good luck with that.
What goes around comes around. Everything is cyclical.
Bc and Calgary are the new fucked real estate casino game pricing
Actually bc been fucked real estate for more than 33 years
Where are all the buyers? This isn’t a cartoon. Give it time.
1/4 pt... that might equate to a cheap dinner out with the wife once a month... until wages catch some ground with 21-22-23 inflation, along side a decent interest rate drop it is doubtful house sales will gain much. Outside of having to sell their house, people will sit on a property for years before reducing price too much as they did in the 90s
It's like everyone thought it was going to go back to 3%? It's going to take a couple years I bet
Most people I talked to here in BC wants to leave. BC's new moto "proudly redefines poverty"
Buy on the rumour, sell on the news.
With regards to the employment rate. Does this include realtors,home builders, contractors, lawyers, inspectors. And the likes thereof. Or is this just those who are collecting ei.
I know guys in construction and they’re telling me about layoffs.
Where are layoffs , here government controlled media don't give a shit.
Yup, are they the same guys asking for rate hikes?
Where? Ontario is booming
I think it's time to make mortgage interest tax deductible and impose capital gains tax on all real estate holdings.
Western Canada continues to defy logic.
Reality
Without demand from immagrtion/WFH migration our housing would have never reached these height, and we will return as things cool down.
Little measly peterborough
We’re finally got wise to the real estate scam, not spending our money on this crap anymore.
People don't have a pot to piss in.... buying houses is for the rich, speculators and investment firms.
.
People with enough income will always buy, those with minimum wage jobs will never own, no matter the price
def too soon in the grand scheme of things
The reason prices are still strong here in British Columbia is because it's a really nice place to live. Simple as that. It's not rocket science. It's just a really nice place to live and if you're going to spend a lot of money on real estate in Canada why not choose the best province?
I sure wish I could afford to live there, but even though I own a home and have a comfortable amount of savings, I can't return to my native place. Rats!
You said "BC is really nice place to live" how many times? Do you have more meaningful arguments? 'cuz honestly - for most ppl in BC its pretty shitty right now.
Toronto and Vancouver is mostly foreign money for decades. The 80’s and 90’s brought rich people from Hong Kong and Taiwan. Then the rich people from China, Russia, India and Middle East came in the 2000’s
BC stands for Bring Cash and it is doing well because everyone moves there to retire and brings bags of cash with them.
@@Burboss I know tons of people in BC, especially on the coast. They love it there. Why argue about that?
Housing trades in the 4-6X Area median income historically. Watch for banks to stop providing the rope unless the govt buys their risky mortgages on the books - so defaults will be paid by you the taxpayer.
we are still going to feel the fallout from all this financial silliness over the past 4 years. real estate has been swirling the bowl for about a year and going down, water is yellow and there's a few turds going around as well with lots of shit tickets.
The House of Cards is coming down.
Your data sadly is useless. If activity is not there how do you seriouly share this diatribe. Every stat I can show is irrelevant.
Do not stop, but use disclaimer...Okanagan will fall drastically....
Realtors numbers bias❤
You keep predicting a crash. But why is that we recently received a quote to build a new house, east of the GTA in the boonies, for $500 per square foot!!! Just the house, not including land, hooking up the house to utilities and all the other bureacratic BS. Do the math Jon and stop hoodwinking folks here who are camping out in their parents' basements that prices are going to crash. Sure, inventory has definitely fattened up, but the majority are dumpy, sad-looking homes, nobody is selling a loved and quality-home now unless they REALLY have to. This is then forcing potential buyers, who actually have the money that you claim Canadians don't have, to seek other alternatives, like having a custom-home built to avoid having to buy a dump but to still come in lower price-wise than a slightly older (5-15 year), quality estate house (they are VERY pricey and guess what - they continue to sell well). Quality homes are still selling well right now Jon, east of the GTA continues to defy gravity, it's where "old" Torontonians Turdy promised to replace with new ones, are flocking to and it's referred to as the "white flight". Trading a GTA home for a rural home is a joke for these loaded folks.
Jon has been predicting a crash for years and it still hasn't happened. He needs the clicks and ad revenue on his doomsday market crashing videos because he can't sell any houses. Look how much he complains on X about not being able to sell a house.
We are in a recession.. it won't get better because government doesn't want that to happen.
You just couldn't bring yourself to saying you were wrong about the June rate cut hey? Trying to pass it off saying that it was the GDP data that changed the banks mind when you were actively saying the night before that they wouldn't cut rates. Will we get an apology video when your prediction of 2017 prices doesn't happen either?
I was soooo close, sorry man maybe next video
I wouldn't brag about a .25%rate cut!
He will probably apologize around the same time the realtors who promised this rate cut would send prices to the moon and inventory to rock bottom apologize for being wrong
Maybe the reality will be somewhere in the middle?
Repeat that after the FED has talked, then we'll see what happens to the CAD and what the BoC will have to do in the next reunion.
Complaining....all i ever here...
Canada rocks...life is good..
Dont get su ked into the negativity...its all noise..just like this guy...noise.
Man John you flucked miserably. BOC did reduce the rate, you were cock sure. Ha. Gotch ya.
He can't bring himself to ever admit he was wrong.
@@johnnylongstockingHe immediately admitted on x that he was wrong with his prediction of no rate cut. Go check it out for yourself.
@@johnnylongstocking So johnny.. are you gonna admit you were wrong?
@@Jo-mf2vu what was I wrong about?
@@johnnylongstocking You are wrong when you said that Jon does not admit when he is wrong. He admitted at the beginning of this video that he got his prediction for rate hold off, and he also admitted on X that he was wrong.
I have two brother's who still live in the BC interior and it's mostly retirees with money who are moving into the area and locals who are getting squeezed out they are both around 70 and have to keep working because between the cost ofcar,insurance in BC ,property taxes and home insurance it's like making another mortgage payment for them and then add on the cost of groceries and everything else the average working Joe with kids and a mortgage they are screwed BTW neither of my brother's have a mortgage their houses are paid for and I left BC 10 years ago and am living on the Bruce peninsula because BC was getting unaffordable back then
You should ask "Where are all the promised affordable house?"
Well there use to be affordable housing here in New Brunswick but people caught on to this and decided to move here.
Now the prices have gone crazy with multiple offers and sometimes cash being paid for houses that were until a few years not wanted by anybody. It's a sorry mess and I doubt it will get better. Going forward, the idea of young families getting a house is probably not going to be a reality anymore.
With Trudope in charge are you kidding?
Never deal with a negative person. He is all doom and gloom scaring people.
and wrong all the time.
Agent Detected
@@golftownpro999 looks like your detector is off. Try again.
Whom would you say he is scaring?
@@Nemija he is trying to scare sellers into FOMO selling.