Interest rates aren't the problem.The problemis that the price of the homes is too expensive and when something becomes too expensive , it becomes unaffordable , regardless of the interest rate
When rates drop and people start qualifying for more they will spend. Prices will rise. Anyone on the sidelines that haven’t been saving and ready to jump in will miss out.
@@xxrudebouyxx1363 It will only happen for a short time few months and these are ones paying premium 100k-200k over what it is worth. You are missing conservative news release... They will increase the supply of condos, so people who are renting in basements will rent condos or buy condos and investor who own 20-25% of detached homes will start losing rental and sell these homes. Detached homes prices in the next 4-5 years will increase 1%-3% not 10%. There will be spike of 5-10% sometimes next spring because of FOMO, but after that it will get very quiet. This is what happened in 2022. Remember over the past 2 years so many homes were listed and not sold. So there is lots of inventory that are delisted.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with 'Grace Adams Cook' for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
2 minutes starting from 21:50 is what I've been saying for years. CMHC & mortgage rules is not there to help any Canadian, but inflate the housing bubble. At one point there's just not going to be enough fuel in a tank and that bubble going to deflate. Very very painfully to most Canadians
The fact is that politician will not allow housing price to drop. Home ownership is around 60% Canadians. If they want homeowners votes, then the price cannot go down.
@@kellyhou9594 With the amount of people who now own more than one, there are less homeowners than you think. There are just over 14 million housing units of all types including all purpose built rentals and all foreign owned There are no stats for this, so I'm going to guess that at most there are 7 or 8 million Canadians that can vote that own houses, most have spouses, but a lot are old and their spouses are gone (I land in this group). If every homeowner and spouse voted it would be less than 14 million votes. On the other hand all Canadians eat food so the BOC will watch how low the interest rates go so as not to increase food inflation.
@@kellyhou9594 The prices have gone down considerably, particularly inflation adjusted. I don't know why people say 'oh 15% from the median peak nbd' lmao, how is that not a massive loss when people's incomes are under six figures? Not to mention 15% down means you need 18% gain just to breakeven, and that's only nominal during a period of very high inflation. Look at the FRED real Canadian housing index and housing is sitting at ~Q3 2017 levels in spite of all the stimulative measures. That's seven years of no investment increase but skyrocketing population and gov spending. Canadians need to redo high school math.
If they are pushing for multiple co signers and raising insured amounts to put less down. All signs point to prices rising and quality of life in Canada lowering
It’s expensive to hold a property for sale empty with no renter paying the mortgage. Some Sellers probably waiting until they think it’ll move quicker rather than holding it empty
20:20 Steve is thinking in the mindset of a Canadian. U forget that new residents are putting 20 per house and 6 on the mortgage. They love lower quality living and it will change perspective on what a 1.5 mil mortgage is
New residents that come to Canada can't find high paying jobs to sustain the so called mortgage payments. Unless they cash buy it then it's not an issue.
@@jeffrey1411 have u not seen Ontario? They don’t need high paying jobs. they can co sign 10 people on a mortgage and all work at Tim hortons and qualify easily. “New residents” have no problem with low standard of living 20 per house. Don’t forget if they don’t qualify they will just use fraud to get it done lmao
@@jeffrey1411 new /canadians residents will not afford a home unless they come with Skills and education to support it. Otherwise you will be stuck in that low income job until someone within your demographic invests in you to get a career.
I bought my house in 2024, 500k, 10% down payment, 5.7 interest rate. I rather own than pay 2.5k/month for a 2 bedroom in a cramped tower all expenses included when I can pay 3.4k/month for a 2 stories house with a full basement and a big backyard all expenses included. I live in QC
Agents in 2022 great time to buy prices will keep going up. Agents in 2024 telling their clients "good time to sell rates are coming down" Many just want to sell homes and don't advise their clients to wait. When rates were around 3.5% home values went up 30-40k a year
It all depends on the situation. For example I have a friend that needs to move back to Poland within a year and needs to sell his house in Canada soon. The longer he waits, he will be selling in a market that is saturated with elevated inventory levels, many of the sellers will have unreasonable expectations for what their house is worth, which will maintain high levels of inventory. As sentiment weakens, it will eventually lead to more competition, and as more sales are made at lower prices, sellers will try and front run each other like a stampede of sheep. As activity picks up, the sellers will change their anchor points from peak pricing, and focus more on recent sales activity. This will be self re-enforcing as more sales activity leads to more price discovery. This is also why I said that people selling in January would get better prices than sellers that were waiting and expecting that april cuts would lead to higher house prices. People that sold at peak prices, they sold when the unemployment rates were near rock bottom. You don't want to sell into weakness, it's common sense. Sell into strength... It's a much different environment when rates were last at 3.5%, have you factored in that everything else other than housing has rapidly increased? Inflation has sucked away a lot of purchasing power, which means people have less money to bid up overvalued assets such as real estate. Every time they try and lower rates to stimulate the economy, it will become less effective as the disinflationary pressures get stronger. This will be due to the Canadian economy diverging from the US economy. The closer my friend sells his house to peak unemployment, the weaker the offer he will get. My friend doesn't have time to wait, and the housing correction could take years to play out. Unnemployment can rise sharply once it gets momentum. Not everyone can wait 5 or 6 years to sell for the price they expect. Some bubbles can take decades to correct.. No one really knows yet. As you near the peak of a bubble, there is more downside risk as opposed to potential upside. It's similar to stocks, you don't go heavy leverage in a time where the unemployment rate is at all time lows, and times are good. You go more heavy on the leverage when the unemployment is high and when sentiment is bad, because this is when you get discounts and lower prices.
@@Casey-qm1nd The real estate community bases it's predictions on too few variables. Historically interest rates go down, unemployment then begins to slow in the coming months. Only when the economy starts to recover and unemployment starts to drop sharply will the housing market take off. It all happens in in an economy based sequence, which they don't want us to know.
@@Casey-qm1ndtell your friend to sell in the spring. Inventory will get swiped up in less than a week when the rate hits break point. I think u under estimate how many people are waiting and saving a larger down payment. U miss the bottom of u don’t see the signs
It is just not affordable. That's the problem. How do people who want to practice their professions and not worry about tenants afford a decent home? Everybody is renting out the extra space legally or not just to stay afloat.
Combined household income of 200k can't even afford a house. How do you expect the housing market to rebound? 😂 Prices need to drop by 50% to make it affordable where households making 100-120k can afford it.
It is not interest rates that is keeping people out. People can't afford 1m detached home that needs 100k in renovation
Interest rates aren't the problem.The problemis that the price of the homes is too expensive and when something becomes too expensive , it becomes unaffordable , regardless of the interest rate
When rates drop and people start qualifying for more they will spend. Prices will rise. Anyone on the sidelines that haven’t been saving and ready to jump in will miss out.
@@xxrudebouyxx1363 It will only happen for a short time few months and these are ones paying premium 100k-200k over what it is worth. You are missing conservative news release... They will increase the supply of condos, so people who are renting in basements will rent condos or buy condos and investor who own 20-25% of detached homes will start losing rental and sell these homes. Detached homes prices in the next 4-5 years will increase 1%-3% not 10%. There will be spike of 5-10% sometimes next spring because of FOMO, but after that it will get very quiet. This is what happened in 2022. Remember over the past 2 years so many homes were listed and not sold. So there is lots of inventory that are delisted.
This basic logic won't work. Reality is something else. Cause Prices didn't go down as much when the rate hikes happen. @@xxrudebouyxx1363
@@xxrudebouyxx1363you need like 220k+ combined household income to qualify. The avg salary is 60-70k so idk how you can make the numbers work
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with 'Grace Adams Cook' for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
2 minutes starting from 21:50 is what I've been saying for years. CMHC & mortgage rules is not there to help any Canadian, but inflate the housing bubble. At one point there's just not going to be enough fuel in a tank and that bubble going to deflate. Very very painfully to most Canadians
The fact is that politician will not allow housing price to drop. Home ownership is around 60% Canadians. If they want homeowners votes, then the price cannot go down.
@@kellyhou9594
With the amount of people who now own more than one, there are less homeowners than you think.
There are just over 14 million housing units of all types including all purpose built rentals and all foreign owned
There are no stats for this, so I'm going to guess that at most there are 7 or 8 million Canadians that can vote that own houses, most have spouses, but a lot are old and their spouses are gone (I land in this group).
If every homeowner and spouse voted it would be less than 14 million votes.
On the other hand all Canadians eat food so the BOC will watch how low the interest rates go so as not to increase food inflation.
@@kellyhou9594 The prices have gone down considerably, particularly inflation adjusted. I don't know why people say 'oh 15% from the median peak nbd' lmao, how is that not a massive loss when people's incomes are under six figures? Not to mention 15% down means you need 18% gain just to breakeven, and that's only nominal during a period of very high inflation. Look at the FRED real Canadian housing index and housing is sitting at ~Q3 2017 levels in spite of all the stimulative measures. That's seven years of no investment increase but skyrocketing population and gov spending.
Canadians need to redo high school math.
If they are pushing for multiple co signers and raising insured amounts to put less down. All signs point to prices rising and quality of life in Canada lowering
U will have 20-30 people in the house next to u
It’s expensive to hold a property for sale empty with no renter paying the mortgage. Some Sellers probably waiting until they think it’ll move quicker rather than holding it empty
Or u can just live in your house and not use it as a business. If u can’t afford the payments that on u. Renter or not
More expensive to buy a house u can’t afford and expect a renter to pay your bills lmaoooo
20:20 Steve is thinking in the mindset of a Canadian. U forget that new residents are putting 20 per house and 6 on the mortgage. They love lower quality living and it will change perspective on what a 1.5 mil mortgage is
New residents that come to Canada can't find high paying jobs to sustain the so called mortgage payments. Unless they cash buy it then it's not an issue.
@@jeffrey1411 have u not seen Ontario? They don’t need high paying jobs. they can co sign 10 people on a mortgage and all work at Tim hortons and qualify easily. “New residents” have no problem with low standard of living 20 per house. Don’t forget if they don’t qualify they will just use fraud to get it done lmao
@@jeffrey1411 new /canadians residents will not afford a home unless they come with Skills and education to support it. Otherwise you will be stuck in that low income job until someone within your demographic invests in you to get a career.
@@jeffrey1411 20 of them living in 1 house could afford the mortgage. They will all work at tim hortons.
@@MitchOfCanada except document fraud is running rampant and 20 people in a house could afford it on minimum wage
Put out an expense sheet on renting vs. owning to all the people who still want to own and it will kill sales even more
I bought my house in 2024, 500k, 10% down payment, 5.7 interest rate. I rather own than pay 2.5k/month for a 2 bedroom in a cramped tower all expenses included when I can pay 3.4k/month for a 2 stories house with a full basement and a big backyard all expenses included. I live in QC
Agents in 2022 great time to buy prices will keep going up.
Agents in 2024 telling their clients "good time to sell rates are coming down"
Many just want to sell homes and don't advise their clients to wait.
When rates were around 3.5% home values went up 30-40k a year
It all depends on the situation. For example I have a friend that needs to move back to Poland within a year and needs to sell his house in Canada soon. The longer he waits, he will be selling in a market that is saturated with elevated inventory levels, many of the sellers will have unreasonable expectations for what their house is worth, which will maintain high levels of inventory. As sentiment weakens, it will eventually lead to more competition, and as more sales are made at lower prices, sellers will try and front run each other like a stampede of sheep. As activity picks up, the sellers will change their anchor points from peak pricing, and focus more on recent sales activity. This will be self re-enforcing as more sales activity leads to more price discovery.
This is also why I said that people selling in January would get better prices than sellers that were waiting and expecting that april cuts would lead to higher house prices. People that sold at peak prices, they sold when the unemployment rates were near rock bottom. You don't want to sell into weakness, it's common sense. Sell into strength... It's a much different environment when rates were last at 3.5%, have you factored in that everything else other than housing has rapidly increased? Inflation has sucked away a lot of purchasing power, which means people have less money to bid up overvalued assets such as real estate. Every time they try and lower rates to stimulate the economy, it will become less effective as the disinflationary pressures get stronger. This will be due to the Canadian economy diverging from the US economy.
The closer my friend sells his house to peak unemployment, the weaker the offer he will get. My friend doesn't have time to wait, and the housing correction could take years to play out. Unnemployment can rise sharply once it gets momentum. Not everyone can wait 5 or 6 years to sell for the price they expect. Some bubbles can take decades to correct.. No one really knows yet. As you near the peak of a bubble, there is more downside risk as opposed to potential upside. It's similar to stocks, you don't go heavy leverage in a time where the unemployment rate is at all time lows, and times are good. You go more heavy on the leverage when the unemployment is high and when sentiment is bad, because this is when you get discounts and lower prices.
@@Casey-qm1nd
The real estate community bases it's predictions on too few variables.
Historically interest rates go down, unemployment then begins to slow in the coming months. Only when the economy starts to recover and unemployment starts to drop sharply will the housing market take off.
It all happens in in an economy based sequence, which they don't want us to know.
@@Casey-qm1ndtell your friend to sell in the spring. Inventory will get swiped up in less than a week when the rate hits break point. I think u under estimate how many people are waiting and saving a larger down payment. U miss the bottom of u don’t see the signs
So Phil Soper is full of bs?
Great conversation from our experts!
It is just not affordable. That's the problem. How do people who want to practice their professions and not worry about tenants afford a decent home? Everybody is renting out the extra space legally or not just to stay afloat.
Where do you see prices off.
Condo yes not detached
Not my area
Detached and family sized towns and semis are set to sky rocket! No one wants a condo
65% of condos are investor owned
Great insights on the market dynamics!
FOMO Pumper Saretsky 👋
As usual
Ohh 40% ?? I thought it was $40thou… that is very different
Combined household income of 200k can't even afford a house. How do you expect the housing market to rebound? 😂
Prices need to drop by 50% to make it affordable where households making 100-120k can afford it.
The car business sucks what else can they do?
looking more and more like 2008. this was never supposed to happen because our banks are so "conservative" at lending. well look at that now
if only there was some key political activity soon to happen that is dropping rates....
I have 5 principal residences. What’s one more lol
U should amortize all of them to 30 years and get 3-4 more lmaoooooo