Zeihan: US Leadership, China's Energy, and Future Conflict
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.ค. 2024
- Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical analyst, author, and speaker who makes bold and startlingly accurate projections on the basis of geography, demography, and global politics.
He has authored 5 books about geopolitics; A Crucible of Nations, The Accidental Superpower, The Absent Superpower, Disunited Nations, and his latest, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.
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Timestamp:
00:00 meet Peter Zeihan
01:58 Globalization and how it's ending
05:20 Conflict to watch in 2022
08:15 The Importance of Acknowledging History
10:34 The Value of Leaders Learning from History
13:22 Control of the sea and safe passage across the oceans
16:50 Geopolitics
18:42 New Alliance
21:15 U.S.-Mexico:Targeting Drug Cartels
26:47 China's Energy and food security
30:02 The Russia sanctions are important lesson for China
37:08 "The books are my way of having a conversation to myself"
44:52 Actionable Personal Challenge
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A 2000 mile border with a soldier every “couple of miles” would only require 1000 soldiers, not our “entire military”
Great interview, thx for pushing back to gain further clarity and well done!
This is the best interview of Zeihan I have seen all year. I've never watched Aaron Watson before. He just earned a new follower. The guy is extremely well informed. He asked all the right questions.
Thank you!!
@@AaronWatsonGeo Peter's great talk : th-cam.com/video/660baZoWnoQ/w-d-xo.html
almost all of his facts are incorrect. Check them
Are you kidding? He is a joke!
This was an excellent interview with Peter. He’s so on top of things in the world. This conversation explains so much of what’s going on. These are very interesting times we live in.
i applaud the interview questions here for being so insightful & inquisitive. i tried watching a lot of interviewers talk to mr. zeihan about this book lately & they tend to stumble through questions that make it sound like they didn’t read the assignment; aaron clearly dove deep into this text & came out with a lot of good questions. this interview is a fantastic epilogue to a book that has had my mind racing ever since i finished it. kudos!
very kind. thank you!
I agree. The questions were set up well which allowed Peter to just breeze through smoothly. Great job! 👍
The book & audio book come out on a day when I have 6 hours in the car for work... YEP! already pre-ordered the audiobook. Can't wait...
Been hooked on Mr Zs take lately. He is repetitive but does hammer home some very interesting points. I actually appreciate that he goes back over his talking points and builds on them as events unfold.
He feels repetitive to me but only because he's consistent in all his interviews and says the same things. Good information.
@@JA-vz1nl th-cam.com/video/BlQKdoWCfAg/w-d-xo.html
Bro, he says that the southern boarder is 2000 miles long then says that the entire US military is only enough for one dude every few miles....... Also his China claims are pretty easily disputed
@@MrLifecereal regardless, China will face a demographic crisis with the 1 child policy.
@@dogetaxes8893
Not all “demographic crises” are equal .
China will be fine, believe it ✌️
Great job finding something new to talk about! Move of the content in the book I've heard in other talks, but after 37:08 was unique, and that's a great way to make yourself stand out.
What a brilliant interview! A lot of kudos to Aaron for doing a great job
Aaron, excellent job interviewing Peter. Digging deeper into the issues was an outstanding insight into Peter's deep and thorough understanding and your curiosity. Well done all around.
Thanks Tony!
Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figure in 3 month, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement
@@rajeshupadhyay5683Think long term, personally i ventured into the market so i won’t be stranded after i retire. A colleague of mine introduced me to CFA " Priscilla Dearmin-Turner " who drew out retirement plans and they all aligned with what i wanted and had to pick one plan and with her exit and entry strategies on commodities , securities and digital assets, my portfolio has really been diversified with good ROI. I am really impressed by how much i have achieved
Investment now will be wise but the truth is investing on your own will be a high risk. I think it will be best to get a professional👌
@@lezliewhicker8450Thank you, Going through her profile in her webpage, she smashed all her state certificate and accreditation🙏
Good engaging interview. Well done!
thanks!
Peter is essentially describing the geo-political world of George Orwell's 1984: Oceania (US and its cultural allies) vs the rest.
Not really. They're not in full-mode war to the death. Not even close. That was the Soviets/US. And as Peter says time and again, China and "the rest" NEED Oceania to have their "economic miracles" even exist. Instead, consider Samuel P Huntington's Clash of Civilizations as a leitmotif, or else Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel. Much closer to what Peter's describing, IMHO.
“Oceania” has a noteworthy population that doesn’t understand what a human male and female are (a comparable population that is now _confused_ on the topic), is progressively advocating for the butchery of its youth regarding their future adult reproductivity, executes would be citizens (developing babies) on a scale comparable to rats (that will devour their own young) and is STEADILY creating conflict between its male and female populations.
That is a human population so fundamentally broken that they should be treated as radioactive by outside human populations.
Yeah , and they both fail to discuss the most important geopolitical issues of all. Namely ,the rise and malign influence of the WEF, and the impending collapse of the world dollar system and its huge ramifications.
@@nickjohnparker1 yes I was interested at first but then he starts describing history in a way that I have no memory of. He actually seems pleased with the decisions taken with Russia and Ukraine that I’d argue are the worst mistakes with the conflict.
Outstanding!! Challenging ahead!
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this vid is gonna get MAD VIEWS this month
😁😁😁
Fantastic conversation
thanks for listening
Nuclear power is highly efficient and highly regulated. They are the safest places to work in the world. How many deaths have been caused by nuclear power compared to every other industry and facilities.
Love the interview. Peter is fascinating.
I’m obsessed with watching any Zeihan interviews, and i would consider your’s one of the best. Well done. Subscribed and thumbs up right after. Thx :)
I also watch a lot of his stuff, so this means a lot. Thank you!
😊 thanks 🙏🏼
OHH Peter 哈哈哈 th-cam.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/w-d-xo.html
@@AaronWatsonGeo Yours is the second of these interviews and I largely agree with most of what he says, but I'd love to know who or what Peter thinks these threats are to the trade routes.
I'm Australian and we have a current policy of protecting our trade routes.
th-cam.com/video/MTCqXlDjx18/w-d-xo.html
Also I am an engineer and can all of you just please stop making out that you know anything about robotics, particularly industrial robotics and what we use it for in factories. Its actually annoying.
Also can you all please stop talking about self driving cars. They are not going to happen except maybe as a sort of autopilot on interstate freeways. I have done a lot of industrial software development and automation is great because its such a definable task. Driving a car is not definable because there's no actual definition of a street from a software perspective. Its hard to try and describe what's going on in a human brain as you drive down just normal suburban street with parked cars, kids on bikes, trees, lawns, footpaths, driveways, etc. the number of combinations is billions. A human brain can drive down any street, even for the first time, and instinctively categorize 1000s of objects as being important or not important.
If you go back a few years Elon Musk said he'd deliver self driving cars and a bunch of other companies said we can do that too. Do you hear anything these days????? Yeah they woke up to the fact it was just another Elon grade school fantasy Hollywood science project. Then most of them quietly shelved it or sold it off.
This conversation is fascinating!
A nation nationalizing foreign owned assets surprising China is something that astounds me, like "You guys don't remember what *you* did to foreigners?"
What?
@@bighands69 He's saying that Peter Bogus is full of crap.
@@whoeverwhoever400
He simply is not making any sense.
Good interview!
Waiting impatiently for my copy. It's finally on its way today, Wednesday 15 June
Excellent. Well spoken, well articulated.
Great insight about his actual job as a consultant
Yay, "looking forward" to what's coming ahead... 😱😰😜 Thank you for this interview Aaron. 🙏
Yay? Did you watch the video? Inflation, scarcity of products, wars?
thx guys. just ordered the book.
Good interview
Thank you!
I've been watching Peter's talks since around the end of 2020. You did a fantastic job of going through his work, and bringing up counter points.
Thanks. I’m a big fan, too. Was aiming to get more clarity on his framework. Thanks for watching!
@@AaronWatsonGeo Peter's great talk : th-cam.com/video/660baZoWnoQ/w-d-xo.html
@@AaronWatsonGeo when was this recorded? The way Peter talks it's like a couple months ago. He said we're a couple months into Ukraine war. Thanks for putting out this great content!
@@mathewphilip6764 recorded about a month and a half ago
Great interview guys, always enjoy Peter's insights.
I also like 'end of the world' part. I'm prepared !!
@@qqx154 th-cam.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/w-d-xo.html OHH Peter
I've read a couple of Peter's books and know his perspective well. Good questions, Aaron.
Thank you!
Brilliant. Thanks
Fantastic Interview - Peter never disapoints !!
Great stuff here
Subscribed from suggestion of a commenter on another post that highly recommended you.
thanks for subscribing!
Peter is awesome
Peter Zion is always entertaining. He always oversimplifies. Sometimes he doesn't know what he's talking about. Often he doesn't take into account that people are flexible and can change their behavior. For example, Germany has not Fallen apart because they no longer get natural gas from Russia.
Zeihan always overstates the weaknesses of America's rivals and foes while ignoring America's own weaknesses.
One of the best interviews I seen of him.
thanks! did a lot of prep
Thank you for the content. I appreciate the conversation. If I may, I think it was a bit too much editing. Just some love-based constructive criticism. Be well.
Also, pretty please stabilize your video.
A key quote " When you industrialize , you also urbanize and have fewer kids ."
... and after 2 1/2 generations of this , most of the advanced world has now aged past the point of no return .
.
.
Actually , I looked into this
Britain's population increased dramatically during the 19th Century Industrial Revolution ,
as did Japan's population , when it industrialized during the 20th Century .
Increases in sanitation ( water mains and sewers ) could help explain this
but overall I'd say the comment is false .
.
I think Peter likes to hear his own voice. The highly interconnected world is not going away anytime soon. China is not a fragile economy and, quite frankly, the US doesn’t have great demographics either.
love it. fascinating things to understand.
What's the website to sign up for the free newsletter? Why is this not in the description or show notes?
zeihan.com/newsletter/
@@AaronWatsonGeo got it thanks
* "Biden's old enough to remember...." 😂 That word "remember" is subjective
I do not think Biden is as bad as people make out. I think he is old and his normal problems get exposed that he could keep under wraps when he was younger.
Biden cant remember what he ate for breakfast.
That is absolutely the truth
One thing I’ve noticed from my elderly parents, both in their mid 90s., is that they do remember and are much wiser than they are able to express. They live alone and handle all of their business and don’t even think about trying to pull the wool over their eye!
@@lorihamlin3604 thank you lori. I appreciate the thoughtful comment.
My thoughts exactly. He needs to think to practice “the New Clear ..Physics!” LOL.
Extremely well done interview. The questions brought out Peter’s best.
Thanks!
Damn good and deep conversation
thanks!
Interesting
Nice intro, Aaron.
thanks!
How is India not a strategic ally? I think going forward India will perhaps be America's most important ally in the 21st century. An alliance with them will be crucial.
Study about trade and you'll understand why India is not a major ally
@@sandrosadhukhan Yet. And this is more than about trade. India is strategically position against China. Truth be told, Peter Zeihan is a bit short sighted and lacks understanding about the changes in technology that will make China a threat. This is not the 20th century, A.I. and improvements in artificial wombs will tilt the balance of power to China irrespective of it's supposed current demographic profile.
@@MelkorTolkien also Cov** is killing alot of their aging population, so they'll be leaner and meaner
"the boarder is 2000 miles long" 10 seconds later "if we put the entire military down there that's one man every couple miles" so the entire US military is under 1000 soldiers.... How can you take him seriously
The view from the top is everything going to be shitty downhill no matter which direction you go
Change is always difficult. Look at the internet. It is wondaful and awful all at the same time. As goes the past will go the future. Forever changing without regard for good or bad.
We know that, what is more interesting is when does it end?
"Supercarriers aren't good for protecting sea lanes"
They can plug holes -- very big holes, actually -- in land-based air force coverage of sea lanes. The Straits of Malacca aren't very big, that's kind of the point, and they're even smaller at Mach 3.
Do you expect any of these supercarriers to be decommissioned anytime soon?
When do you expect the pirates to start appearing?
Do you expect us not to respond like Roosevelt - "Pericardis alive, or Raizuli dead" to any Captain Philips situation, in the future?
@xan kon I think his argument is that without naval coverage from the United States, Chinese export trade (and economy) collapses, because the Chinese navy can't operate all the way to Europe. Even worse, without a navy capable of operating as far as the Persian Gulf / Africa / Australia, China can't even keep their materials imports going, even the Middle Eastern oil that keeps their lights on.
The problem seems to be, regular working-class Americans see globalism as a bad deal: we pay a lot in taxes for our military, we give up our lives in places like Iraq, and we end up unemployed because our factories get shut down and shipped off to China. Most Americans really don't want to be "the world's policeman", especially on these terms.
Worse, it looks like our freedoms (the American Way) are under attack by the Chinese Way. Chinese media is full of lies and misinformation (like its denial of the Tienanmen Square massacre in 1989), and US media seems to be pushed the same way. China is pushing (and purchasing) governments like Justin Trudeau's, to go stamp on freedom and go authoritarian. China is pushing drugs into our country, which kills far more Americans than the wars we've been fighting. Every indication is that wherever Chinese influence spreads -- like Hong Kong -- freedom withers and dies. This is giving us a VERY bad impression of the Chinese government.
What could help?
- Freeing Hong Kong. Specifically, let Jimmy Lai and anyone else involved in the umbrella movement, out of jail.
- Hold democratic elections in Hong Kong, free from any interference from Beijing. If this doesn't happen, there's absolutely no way that America will hesitate to send any fleet invading Taiwan, to the bottom of the sea.
- Stop supporting drug manufacture and smuggling in North America.
- Close down the concentration camps in Sinkiang, if you don't want us to start calling it East Turkmenistan and pushing for its independence.
This will do for a start.
it would be very interesting to do a recap after about 9 months.
25:08 on the drug war: "I would love to give you some signposts of how we could make this better, but as long as Americans like their cocaine and as long as they're willing to pay for it, it's going to continue to come and the drug cartels are going to fight over it."
Here's a signpost: legalize drugs. Do this and you destroy the cartel's profits overnight.
Eighty percent of the worlds police force would out of a job.
@@phillipwallbank5 As would 50% of the world's prison guards.
@@kpduffy not exactly. Many/most offenders are in prison on drug charges, yes. But that's because drug charges are easier to successfully prosecute than whatever the criminal was doing that caught the attention of the police. Someone may be in prison for selling drugs but he's really doing time because he stole cars and killed someone.
I agree the war on drugs has done nothing but make killers rich and drugs more dangerous.
Peter needs to start a podcast. It would quickly become my number 1 listen. I'd love to listen to him get more granular on subjects!
i agree
Agreed, but he probably has more flexibility and makes more money as a consultant and speeches. I'd say his writing and interviews are more interesting than in a podcasts, given that some of his major points are repetitive.
I’ve been aware of the low birth rates for about 5 years. I’m in South Korea which may be the worst. Normal replacement is 2.1 children per couple. Below 1.9 is unrecoverable. Japan is something like 1.1 and South Korea 1.04. Typically they look to technology to fill the worker shortage. But machines don’t pay taxes to support the social services system. In western countries they are trying mass immigration which dilutes their cultural identity. What we are seeing now in political instabilty and social chaos is just the tipping point of major social and economic changes that will transform the world in a way that we can’t go back. What rights and freedoms you once had are gone as they were just words on paper as is money. What you think you own can be taken away and that includes your children. CV 19 was the catalyst to start this rapid transformation.
I agree that "machines don't pay taxes" but at the same time, "machines do not receive a salary".
That means there is room for Companies to pay for the gap on taxes, from not using workers anymore. Companies profits have skyrocketed for years.
Great interview! Probably the best I’ve seen with Peter.
very kind. thank you Kraig!
Um if I was an line wrapped around an incline plane helically. What would China and Russia be?
Man please get Zeihan again :D
35:25 I drink your dollar milkshake 💵 🥤
I interviewed him a little over a year ago. It's starting now huh?
th-cam.com/video/yQ9QePyJAR0/w-d-xo.html
pretty much on point, as a chinese i find him amazing, keep up the good work.
why does your video start up in HD mode ? to costly of my data cost
I had the same question (can't China just AI/robot their way out?) , so thanks for asking.
The problem with this is why would you not bring production back to your own country and save the shipping cost. Also more advance 3D printers will democratize manufacturing in the future. Maybe we all have a 3D printer in our house and instead of buying products you buy plans and your printer prints it. The future is going to be very interesting.
China is an export economy and they have not automated their manufacturing and rely on human hands. They can talk about this in terms of big sweeping statements but they have not put the effort in.
@@bighands69 furthermore, 100s of millions of unemployed and starving Chinese workers who have been replaced by robots would quickly lead to the downfall of the ccp.
Peter's point on China's Covid vaccine is well taken; no wonder that lockdowns are more strict and frequent. Given a low birth rates, the regime certainly does not want to see higher death rates.
His numbers about the boarder are way off. 2000 miles / 1,000,000 in the army alone with 4/1 support. We could deploy 125 infantry for every mile of boarder. That would seal it pretty tight.
I saw the math as really bad on that statement as well.
@@sheldo8083 And he claims to be good at math! Kind of degrades much of his credibility about much of what he says. Remember he makes money with his books and speculations. He is not a professional analyst. He is an entertainer. IMHO
You folks are forgetting that many of your militaries are stationed elsewhere.
5:40 is that 4-5 million b/d ?
39:30 that's a really good question you put forward
Great interview. I'm buying the book.
The age of free American protection is over. Now America charges a subscription.
Do we really need computer chips in everything, e.g., toasters and refrigerators, TV remote controls, etc? Just because we can put a chip into something, should we in a time of scarcity?
He made that point in his book
"Maybe this is overly reductive"
I'm not entirely convinced we're worried enough about that, here.
If things are as unstable as all this, history could go chaotic real fast.
Oh it is going to be really bad
Great interview, I might add to the automation solution for China question.
It's not that it wouldn't be viable to automate its that the limitation of scale and need lies in the declining population and skillets.
There may not even be a population big enough left to justify them, or the generational memory to know how to keep them running.
I predict at some point most of the mega cities will have to be abandoned entirely due to the sheer overwhelming maintenance coming that will be far too prohibitive to handle with a smaller population even if automated to a large degree.
I think already we are seeing the compounding effects of those ongoing and growing maintenance costs becoming a massive burden with failures of property groups like Evergrande and the like in the real estate market there.
Evergrande always struck me as a great Ponzi scheme - admittedly this based on zero research on my part! However, a falling population number does put another spin on it. The recent news regarding bank runs in China have me believing that the fall of China is already well underway. Fascinating, although my heart goes out to the Chinese people. My 2 daughters were adopted from China and they are a part of the one child policy history.
@26:00: Is the expected fall in productivity this high, that legalization is not at least a possible solution?
@Aaron Watson Business
This is not you, right?
42:47 - Right; I've long thought that when a person gets "really good" at something, almost no matter what it is, they gain a new kind of ability to process the inputs in their arena that a novice participant just can't possibly have. For me it was digital logic design. I came of age back when the "board level" design work was prominent (i.e., before the really complex integrated circuits started to appear). I could just kind "munge design ideas around" in my head, and generally knew exactly what my system was going to look like before I ever started drawing a schematic. Beginners can't do that. Clearly, for Peter it takes the form of an " intuition" about all of this stuff he's telling us about.
The only way to get to that point in a profession is practice. Years and years of practice. It also helps if you enjoy it - it's easier to invest the necessary energy into the endeavor.
Being in a global business...I doubt the end of safe transportation. Much of his theories hang on this one idea....
他说的都对，你们大聪明老外一定要相信他，因为可以上天堂
XSWL
135崩溃，246威胁，按着节奏来，各方面利益都照顾到了
@@xsaxsa4706 他们当真就行，说1到7全崩溃也无妨，这些大聪明简直就是曲线救国
I'm a half-assed sci fi writer, world-building for hard near future sf. The future is exciting and is so^2 scary. Thank God we're not doing all this crap with SSTOs...
What if we ended the drug war and deprived the cartels of the income?
Taking a look at data around cannabis decriminalization here in America might help...I'm all for ending prohibition.
Treaty of Westphalia? (pretty sure that no one knows that that was in 1648) A bit weird. That was a peace treaty between countries at war. The EU is not at war with itself. In the meantime there have been many important treaties in the development of the EU like the Maastricht treaty, which laid the foundation of the monetary union, the Euro, closer economical ties and a common safety policy. That was in 1992. Peter likes to think that Europe has not developed, and the only development it has known was superimposed by the USA. While an important ally, that is not 100% true.
And they don’t want to be at war, that is his point. Putin is freaking them out after they decided to NOT take security seriously for over 30 years. The bear is at their door, the USA is not going to send American ground troops so they (EU countries) have to work together to have a chance
You have got to think for your self before you actually speak aloud. Maastricht is nothing more than a paper agreement that offers nothing.
The current defense policies are real and not paper based as they are dealing with the reality of a Russian invasion.
European countries to date cannot even agree on immigration and this defense alliance is new and real.
I feel lied to. The thumbnail promises us Johnny Unitas Peter Zeihan, but instead we get Joe Namath Peter Zeihan. What is life?
Hey,
"Space:1999" called... they want their wardrobe back.
How does Peter Zeihan's intelligence collection and analysis differ from U.S. intelligence agencies' intelligence collection and analysis? Who gets it right or wrong more?
100 intelligence professionals said, Hunter's laptop was part of a Russian disinformation campaign.
@@formernavyspook They obviously knew better. They just lied. Anything useful the intelligence agencies know gets classified. That is why it is pointless for them to release anything to the public. The public's proper attitude to any such release is very healthy skepticism.
Excellent interview!
13:30 naval protection
Justification for all the wars what peace asking for a friend
Do you guys ever study cycles or more to the point the science of cycles?
Can anyone summarize this video for me? My laptop can't load this video....'
Please help me TYT
china`s rooted, america prevails
The problem with robotics replacing workers is that robots cannot replace consumers. If globalization goes away then the outcome will still be the same.
Good point
And robots don’t pay taxes. Or have children who pay taxes.
@@dastrnad But don’t robots make everything cheaper which means we need less taxes and less spending?
RE: Peter's comments on carriers - the USA is just restarting its frigate program (Constellation-class)
Terrific interview, on both ends. Worth every minute of it.
Thanks
Robotics and automation don't fix the demographics problem not only because of the demand side of the equation but because your country will not be the only one decoupling their production capacity from their labour force size, so your economy will be in the same terms in comparison with the rest. In the case of China, this decoupling will hurt them more than help them because their huge workforce is one of their strategic moats right now.
Was the EEC an American invention? BeNeLux?
Seems to me that Marshall helped all this along, but couldn't it have happened otherwise?
The fact that Japan is an emerging naval power would have made the old war generation very nervous.
I saw that avokado story years ago in a TH-cam video…
19:30 did you say we're keeping Eastern Hemisphere Nations out of the western hemisphere? When China is the greatest trade partner with many countries in Latin america? Apparently Brazil is holding out.
I like what he predicted about China.
OMG Peter !!! th-cam.com/video/AVPkoGNqX-8/w-d-xo.html
Yeah, you know why? Because that's what the dude sells. He sells what people in the West love to hear the most and of course, it's a lie....😂😂😂
im so glad this guy is still a genX, coz I want to hear his story forever! love geopolitics!
Yep, keep going LOL
The interviewee seems to be speaking from the 70s