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I wonder if anybody factors how much media has to play in people’s drop in willingness to take the subway in New York City. Also add to that mayor Adams funding cuts to social systems more so than ever I see displaced unhoused people on the subway and many of these people are dealing with mental issues. A lot of these people would’ve been served by city services that have been cut by the mayor and would’ve had places to go that wasn’t the subway except again those programs lost funding because with the mayor. And while these programs have always faced budget cuts, I also hear an increase and reports about the worst of what happens on the subway constantly on the news. Media shapes are perceptions and right now New York media is shaping New York subways as inherently dangerous place regardless of what the data says.
I live within the congestion zone in NYC, very close to the Manhattan side of the Lincoln Tunnel. For the past 3 or so years since Covid restrictions fully eased, traffic in this area has been absolutely insane in so many ways. Drivers driving more aggressively and blocking the box, making it very dangerous for pedestrians and bikers (including on the newly opened double lane bike lane up 10th Ave). There has been bumper to bumper traffic almost every day well past midnight, including a ton of honking during late night hours. And let me tell you, I know it's only been 4 days of congestion pricing so far (including 1 day where we had a small snowstorm) so you can't make any definite conclusions yet...but the traffic up 10th Ave around the entrance of the tunnel has already noticeably eased even compared to just last week and it feels so much better to walk around the neighborhood. I'm hoping this bodes well for more long-term effects on the traffic in the area.
25 years living in NYC, riding the subway the whole time, never bothered to get a car because it's more hassle and expense than it's worth. Covid has been basically memory holed. That's not the main reason why fewer people use the subway. The realty and media obsession with homeless people flipping out on the train is a huge factor. Just look what news covers day to day. That sets the tone. Safety stats show that driving is exponentially more dangerous than the subway. But the experience, amplified by the media, is not as pleasant as sitting in your 3000 pound metal box with climate control, music, no annoying other people, etc. If the MTA is able to improve not safety (it's already safe) but pleasantness, reduce fare evasion, etc things will even out.
The commuter rail is a lot more pleasant than the subway. I wish Metro-North and LIRR had more stops in Manhattan than just GCT and Penn. There is also the express busses that some people use to not use the Subway as well.
@@roflcopter117 I use that as well, I catch it at 125th on the east side. One issue there is that things got really unpleasant around the station with addicts/homeless/etc. It's improving now. Either way, I agree it's a valuable resource. I use it every time I need to go out of town, basically. It's hard to compare directly w the subway tho, since the service, cost, and area coverage is so different.
I don’t think we can pretend that NYC subways are the safest ever when literally every week something happens on there. Either it be a derailment, shooting, stabbing, arson, subway surfing, pushing on the tracks, etc there are issues. Literally yesterday the N train lit on fire somehow and so many kids were late to school. Also the MTA just isn’t prepared for the initial crowdedness this pricing is going to bring. I can go on and on about how this congestion pricing makes things worse for low income communities within Manhattan or around the other boroughs but once you do some research you see that the cons are 10 times more prevalent then the pro (which isnt even guaranteed to happen)
I agree with most of what you said but I don't think fare evasion is a necessary metric to worry about. NYPD spent $150 million to only catch $104k worth of fare beaters. I think we should just take the money wasted on NYPD & fare beaters and onlu put that money into improving the subway experience and accept fare beaters who probably should just be on assistance programs anyway. Going after fare beaters is a waste of money.
Watching this from work, in NYC, at 5pm, 2 blocks from the Holland tunnel, on day 2 of CP going into effect and Jesus Christ it's honestly scary how quiet it is now. I used to literally not be able to think from all the honking that would be happening right outside my window. Now it's just... complete silence. I always believed in the scheme but I legit did not think the effects would be this noticeable this quickly. Hope it expands soon!
It's because it's winter and holiday traffic is over. This happens every year. It's kind of sad that everyone is attributing the normal annual drop in traffic to congestion pricing.
@@kappadappaI’m sure they’ve been working there long enough to know what the norm is. Anyway who has ever walked through Manhattan can tell you how much traffic and noise there is at any point of the year.
@@thedapperdolphin1590 I've lived and worked in midtown for 30 years so I do know what I'm talking about. Traffic dies after the holidays every year. It's literally on the graphs in the video. Look at the graph at 02:19 in the video. It drops in January every year.
Watching suburbanites melt down over congestion pricing has been so good. "I'm never gonna drive to Manhattan again!!!🤬🤬🤬" like yeah dip shit, that's the whole point.
@@tony_5156Tbf, NJ Transit is legitimately sub-par. However, their idiot governor rejected the MTA's offer to settle the lawsuit by sharing $100 million of the revenue with NJT, and then they lost case, so it's entirely their own fault.
The only solution to traffic is to remove as many cars from the road as possible that don't need to be there. Ideally, you solve that problem by providing people other options than driving to get where they want to go, but when you've already done that and it's not working because people are so ingrained with car-dependency... time for the stick. Paris and Berlin have already basically started making street parking illegal, at least in certain areas. In Japan, street parking is just straight up illegal basically everywhere. Barcelona created superblocks. It's counterintuitive, but to solve traffic, you must make it more of a pain in the ass to drive, because at the end of the day, not everything can be a road or a parking lot. We can't pave the world.
There’s a case to made that this is what’s missing from the congestion pricing plan. Like 90% of parking in NYC is free or something like that. They need to add more meters.
As someone who lives in NJ and goes to the city every once in a while, not once have I ever considered driving... I don't understand why certain people get so bent out of shape about congestion pricing
I’d say just a lot of people have been carbrained into oblivion, only hope would be to try to help break the misinformation that they’ve been fed their whole life 😅
Same here. Ive worked in the city for 8 years now and have driven in for work once, maybe twice during the whole. As bad as NJT is, its still way more pleasant than driving into the city.
When you discussed the fear of COVID leading to hesitancy towards taking public transit I wish you also discussed peoples fear of crime/fear of seeing poor people (whether the fears are reality based or not). The media has clearly been trying to push the narrative that, despite the clear statistics showing otherwise, public transportation is dangerous and you can only be safe in your 3000 pound metal box. Additionally, homelessness is rapidly rising, meaning I bet there are more homeless people taking shelter using public transit, which generally pushes uptight/privileged people away from using public transit. There's definitely a lot of fears people have taking public transit that is more than just covid.
As someone who takes the L to work in Chicago, I don't think that the issue is "fear of seeing poor people." Antisocial behavior on the trains has been a big issue since the pandemic: smoking (cigarettes mostly, but also pot and crack), playing loud music, fighting, urinating, and defecating (yes, right out in the open in the aisle) are daily occurrences. The increase in homeless people sprawled out over a number of seats has been clear, too, but that seems to scare off fewer people than the bad actors. We're supposed to push a button in the car to speak with the conductor -- in front of the perpetrators....
well, I wouldn't blame the media entirely. If you ride a subway in Japan or Europe and then ride the scarry dilapidated systems of NYC, you can understand why people have hesitations on safety and just overall experience. The US transit system is really a terrible experience. It may not be the worse but it is really sub par when compared to most of the developed world.
I hear ya. I think there might be a bit more legitimacy to the issues than you're suggesting here. I've got friends who have been sexually harassed a few too many times to ever want to hop on transit in my city again. I do wish Ray would talk about the safety concerns. They're often legitimate.
@@peanutcelery for your information, state of new jersey every year transfers 18% of funds designated for highways to Public transit, and so do many other states South Dakota transfers "2%" for instance
Thanks for including the mention that "ride-hail" is the better term these taxi-like services, since "ride-share" pretty much just greenwashing. I hope news outlets will change their style guides to encourage articles to use "ride-hail."
This is actually a phenomenal video, the type of content I feel like I can only come to this channel for. Your ability to take a complex "unsearchable" issue and synthesize the data into a clear answer through nothing but expertise and sheer force of will is incredible. Your talents for explanation really shine in this video.
This definitely reinforces my opinion that transit systems should be designed with ALL trip types in mind, instead of focusing so much on commuting. I wonder if this same increased-congestion pattern has appeared in a place like Tokyo (or Barcelona, or London, etc.), which has (IMO) a more comprehensive transit system. Kids going to school? People shopping? People visiting friends/family? People meeting up for a night out? If you can't also manage these trips safely and conveniently on transit, it's no wonder ridership isn't recovering.
Vis a vis Tokyo, it's not necessary. Japan never really developed that kind of car culture, the transit arrived early on, and the street are too small and cannot be widened.
I live in the suburbs outside of NYC and when I visit the I always take the train to Grand Central then either walk or take the subway around the city.
Hopefully the congestion pricing convinces my friend to take the train to the city. Last time we were in lower Manhattan, he forked $90 for two hours of parking in a garage since there was no street parking available 😬😬😬😬😬😬
@@rickcobos1724I do the same thing too. I’m not driving into Manhattan, be stuck in traffic, and fork over $60+ to park. I’ll park my car in Harrison, Grove St, or Hoboken and take the Path into the city. I also park at my local train station and take NJTransit into Hoboken or Penn Station. Finally, if I don’t want to drive, I can take the bus to the train. Ration and take either Path or NJT into Manhattan.
I cannot speak for the whole country, but here in Seattle many people moved out of the urban hub due to work from home. They needed more space to set up a home office, they didn't need to go into work, and transit was suddenly a nightmare of disease/homeless/decreased runs. The restaurants you got lunch at closed. So they moved out of the city and bought cars at record levels. Then, tech giants just had them do flex work. Come in once or twice a week, but not at peak hours. When Google Kirkland went back to work, my commute home from Bellevue to Kenmore went from 20-30min at 6pm to 80-90min instantly. People who have barely driven in 5yrs are now in crushing traffic jams. How do we fix it? They'll move back to city centers again. They'll fill back up downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue. Trains hopefully will flow. Housing along rail lines will fill in.
fantasy. There is no selling of their suburbia home with high equity to becoming a renter in a rat box downtown. Traffic is here to stay and so is suburbia. It is too profitable and desirable which is why home prices are still going up even as interest rates have cooled the market. seattle downtown is dead due to businesses leaving due to crime and disorder combined with excessive taxation. Look at 3rd avenue. It is a transit-oriented hellscape.
Sure, but it will be slow because the bulk of the cost of a car is up front, same with a house. So those people won't go back to their urban downtown lifestyles until they absolutely have too because they've invested so much in their new lifestyle already.
People think Seattle is so progressive but we actually managed to become the most work-from-home city in the country and instead of rethinking our economy, our elected leaders are forcing workers back into the 5 days a week downtown. Can’t have parents spending more time with their kids in the suburbs because *god forbid* a trendy tapas place in Denny Triangle closes
The quality of analysis discussion found on this channel is second to none! Hopefully more people (or Americans, at least) grow to appreciate thought out and well-sourced content
For those of us who used to work in a downtown core: We could also run errands accessible by foot near to our job. Our dentist is still downtown. We could get prescriptions, dry cleaning (if that's your thing), and other shopping either on lunch break or after work. Those are trips now replaced by a car for some (or many) of the now remote workers.
Cash Jordan's channel has been a huge source of negativity and very anti-congestion charge despite all the proof from Europe that it works. I mean he literally complains about Ambulances being stuck in traffic but is too stupid to put two and two together. Cars need to be encouraged to get off the road. His griping about Bike Lanes misses the heart of the issue. (Not to mention Bike Lanes can be used for Ambulances in case of emergencies like they are in Europe)
4:40 I appreciate that report specifically states “perceived safety” as a reason for an increase in private vehicles. Because any rational comparisons shows that driving a vehicle is orders of magnitude more dangerous than taking transit. It’s the epitome of a common thing (car crashes) because normalized so much that somehow people think they’re less likely than the uncommon thing that is always publicized because it’s uncommon.
The reality is people will trust their own eyes and noses over what safety data says and you can't totally fault them for it. The crazy guy on the bus/train feels like a more real threat than a car crash although you're more likely to be screwed by a car crash than a crazy guy. It's not just a media narrative, people get stabbed or harassed on transit in major US cities with too much regularity to suggest that riders simply "fear seeing poor people." When every elevator smells like piss and people get pushed in front of trains or lit on fire in a subway car, driving a car seems like a much more reasonable option to many people and that seems valid to me
@@joefer5360 I live in LA although when I recently visited NYC my trip was dovetailed on either end by the woman being burned alive and then the guy being pushed in front of the subway
@@JohnDoe-t9f3v Those are the reports you hear on the main networks. Look into local news. I have a cousin who works maintenance with the MTA. The workers for the MTA are the ones getting brutalized first. There are incidents that do not make it out into the public media. Case open, subject arrested, victim made, case closed.
After a long day of work in nyc, it is soul crushing to be squeezed into half a NJ transit bus seat listening to my overweight seat buddys movie on full blast and leg shaking nervous every against my leg for 45 minutes straight..... Would I get the additional aggravation at the end of my day in my car? Change culture of ridership, enforce rules of decent behavior towards one another, and clean a damn bus or train once in awhile and people may be more inclined to public transit. Oh, and provide bus service between 10am and 3pm, not just during typical commute hours...that is consistently the biggest factor for car drivers from NJ to NY. Construction guy gets in at 6am but finishes his work at 11:30 and your asking him to wait for a 3pm bus????
I have a theory on this: I used to live in an inner (dense) suburb of London, and I commuted into the City for work. I would often do errands on my lunch break by walking/transit, and I would pick up groceries on the way home (several smaller trips). In 2016, I moved out of London to a small satellite town and became a freelancer, working from home. Due to the fact that I wasn't going out for work, and due to living in a less dense area, if I needed to run errands or do groceries, I would find myself driving to the supermarket. So I definitely did more driving (I didn't even own a car before). Many people that move out of the city for cheaper remote working will have bought a car that they didn't previously own, and once you own a car, you'll find reasons to use it. All this points to the need for densification of suburbs, re-zoning and better suburban transit, especially circumferential routes. Or.....we just discourage remote working (like some CEOs are already doing).
The research ties out to my experience. As a fully remote worker in Minneapolis proper, I add a trip in the summer afternoons to go trail biking in the suburbs. I do specifically try to incorporate any other trips (grocery runs, etc.) within these trips to reduce my overall VMT. I think most remote workers have found they need some outlet to replace the in-person interaction or the post-work hangout or gym session near the office that they had before. I don't see this getting better anytime soon especially as more Americans feel entitled to go wherever they want whenever they want at the cost of cities subsidizing their suburban highways.
Fascinating meta-analysis, Ray! I moved to NYC post-pandemic and echo other commenters' observations about increased traffic volumes and reckless driving in recent years, even outside of Manhattan.
I've ended up taking a few pretty extensive road trips over the last 5 years (DC to Texas & back twice, DC to Maine & back twice), and reckless driving has gone absolutely over the top. It seems like folks' brains broke during the pandemic. Like they don't understand mortality or don't have normal fears that keep them from doing obviously stupid things. The number of times I've seen people cut off buses or 18 wheelers...Madness. Heck, it happened twice just this evening, where a car passed the bus on the left, then cut across in front of it to turn right. Twice! I can't even count the number of times I've seen people stopped at a red light who just go. Or a person three or four cars back decide they've waited long enough and pull into the oncoming lane and drive around everyone, then go through the red light. In Houston, in a combined two weeks staying there, I didn't see a single red light that didn't have at least six cars fly through it. In Vermont, everyone drove at about 20 miles over the speed limit, no matter what that limit was, and they'd be right up your tailpipe if you weren't speeding, too. Nashville felt like as soon as you crossed the town line into the city, there were no longer any rules except maybe "kill or be killed." In DC, red lights seem to be a suggestion now, and lord help you if you're in a crosswalk, because most drivers will NOT stop. Ironically, the place I've probably seen the least dangerous stuff has been in Manhattan. Not that I haven't seen some crazy there, too.
So…I’ve never actually put much thought in to it, but as someone who switched to fully remote, I do find myself occasionally “going out for a drive.” I wouldn’t say it’s out of pure boredom. It’s also the desire to just “get out” sometimes which plays a big factor. On days when it’s extremely cold and windy, I tend to replace my daily walk with a random drive around town. Being cooped up inside all day would make me crazy. Not that I live in a large city with congestion issues, but I’ll definitely be thinking about this from now on.
Cabin Fever has been a thing for ever. We absolutely need to consider that when designing cities / neighbourhoods. People need to experience variety, that includes food, entertainment, and environment.
I've been working from home for a while now, but my partner commutes, and we only have 1 car. Took a while, but eventually prompted me to get out and walk or bike my local area. We're extremely lucky to have at least passable infrastructure and live close enough to some shops and stores, and I'm grateful for it, but I can absolutely imagine that if our cities and neighborhoods were less hard-zoned and more integrated with living spaces within easy walking of commercial spaces, then going stir-crazy being in the same place all the time would be way more manageable.
I sold my car within my first year of landing my remote job, but I moved to a small walkable town. Biking in the winter just requires a little more time gearing up. I found biking to be extremely easy is 5 degree weather when wearing the right stuff. In my opinion, cold and windy are nothing compared to wet. Rain is just the worst for bike riding. Rain gear for bikes are not perfect and you're far less visible to people driving, especially if they never replace their windshield wipers. But I do understand the convenience of not ever having to think about the weather when you have a car. It's not some hidden secret why people like driving. There is so much convenience. Just wish cars weren't subsidized as much as they are. People should understand that owning a car is expensive for society.
@@anthonyfox477 I always enjoyed biking in the rain. However, you have to be fortunate enough to have a shower and place to store soaked clothes at work.
During Covid, I quit my job and sold my car, got a remote job and haven't looked back. That said, I got extremely lucky with cheap rent in a walkable neighborhood when i returned from Spain. Most people are psychologically necessitating their vehicles as they walk outside and see nothing but grass, houses, roads and driveways. I realize they probably aren't watching city nerd either
I'm curious how many people moved when working remotely and then started a long commute (rather than moving again) when their job mandated a return to the office
Spreading this information is really important work, Ray. Thank you. There's a predominant narrative online that work-from-home is better for the environment and better for workers. The latter might be true (though I have my doubts if it drives more people to live in car-dependent places), but it's good to see some evidence that the former is not.
As someone who primarily uses ridehailing apps as their man form of transit (no drivers license due to "Anger management issues"). Virtually all of my trips I would do would be by a single person car if I did have a drivers license. I use transit sometimes, but my city only has 2 rail lines, and when I do explore a city with good transit like D.C., I typically take that and avoid ride hails. But for a lot of places around here. I prefer ridehails over the bus mainly as it's much faster and more direct.
I live in Minneapolis, but work remotely for a company based in Sunnyvale, CA. My coworkers in the South Bay had bad commutes pre-pandemic. During the pandemic a huge number of people moved farther out due to the outrageous costs of the South Bay. Many moved way out to far East Bay like Pleasanton, Livermore, etc. Then, over the last 6 months almost all of the companies in the South Bay have required return to office. This means that the trips have double or tripled in miles per trip. I have to assume that has a large impact on congestion.
Those RTO policies seem like a fine way to kill morale with the employees and guarantee productivity suffers. The last company I worked for embraced remote employees and never tried to pull an RTO stunt...mostly because they'd lose 2/3rds of the company..
@@johnchedsey1306 100% I'm lucky they let me stay remote. They are even making our team in Bangalore return to the office. It's a 2 hour commute each way there and then they have night calls as well because people in the U.S. can't be bothered to accommodate their time zone.
maybe part of the reason why remote workers contribute more to VMT is because they can't and/or don't make as many double duty trips? like swinging by the grocery store on the way home from work and whatnot. plus if you're ordering food/grocery deliveries, you may not be the traffic but the deliveryman is. not sure.
Great explanation! This explains a lot in Chicago, where our rail systems are incredibly commuter oriented and all of them are designed to funnel people toward the Loop. Snow days used to be Metra days, now they're work from home days. And certainly a lot of the well-heeled have probably permanently moved to their lake house in Wisconsin or Michigan where there's no transit.
Ride hail apps feel like a stopgap for cities that haven't invested properly in public transit. In a city like Detroit, I think we'd have a better chance of seeing investment in public transit if we didn't have them.
I bet most of them have never taken the train. Some may have ridden a bus. Maybe. I grew up in the city, mostly in Queens. I took transit and walked when I didn’t ride my bike. I recall my mom riding the bus a few times before she got her own car. I don’t remember my dad ever taking transit anywhere, and the last place we lived in the city was around the corner from a bus line that would take us right to the train station. Heh, my parents thought I never ventured from home more than a few blocks. They had no idea I used transit to go all over the city. 😄
Alternatively, perhaps the issue is lack of perception of crime/danger on the road that is the issue. If people were truly afraid of the amount of crime on a subway, they would never get in a car and drive with thousands of private vehicles that break the law and kill hundreds of people every day. If 1 person dies on the subway, it makes national news. If 100 people die on highways, that’s just a typical Monday and no one pays attention.
It's a frustrating perception, because it's very far removed from reality. Driving or being around cars is 10-100x as dangerous as being on any form of public transit, including any potential for unrelated violence. Per capita road rage deaths are probably higher than per capita transit killings
Lots of companies have been loudly forcing people back into offices, but the number of people with remote and hybrid work arrangements are both increasing again. It's just noise unless you happen to work for Amazon or one of the other dinosaur corps.
if you look at the statistics shown in the video, remote work is mostly cannibalizing transit commuters. remote work is way up, however driving is also up and transit is way down.
@@Spartan0430 Because many remote workers moved out of the big city in order to have room for a home office (and live somewhere that allowed walking around during Covid). Most are not moving back to the city, so it increases commuting and congestion.
There’s an article in the Seattle Times by Danny Westneat discussing the ramifications of remote work that discusses this supported by figures and studies
It's funny to hear people complain about the new congestion pricing in New York. The city gains nothing from someone who lives an hour away in New Jersey and commutes into the city by car. They don't pay taxes to the city or state, they use the highways for free, and they congest the city with cars and make it harder to for the people that live there to drive. There's no reason as to why the city should accept that.
I mean not entirely true. If they work in the city they pay New York State income tax but no city tax. It’s not nothing. I did grow up in Jersey and it is unfeasible to take transit bc of how bad it can be sometimes. I wouldn’t complain about the congestion tax. I feel like it’s a good thing. I think we just hate in nj bc our transit options are not as good as ny lol
@@deecunningham9719Most states require that if you physically work in the state, you pay tax there. There are exceptions (for example, Kentucky has reciprocity with a number of states).
The perceived perception of higher crime on subways has somewhat solidified as a major optic for many commuters. NYPD stats suggest otherwise as constantly mentioned by Mayor Adams, I am curious if there are other sources of data to counter this perception or does it corroborate how people feel.
You have to analyze distinct factors. 1)actual statistical safety for your average commuter, which is very good. exponentially safer than driving. 30, 40, 50 TIMES as safe. 2)actual negative conditions which don't result in death/injury but create the IMPRESSION of unpleasantness/lack of safety to commuters (homeless people in distress, etc). Basically just how pleasant is it to be on the subway every day. the word "feel" is key here. 3)the way media COVERS any negative aspect. the media is clearly obsessed with negative subway stories in a way that they are NOT with the tens of thousands of yearly vehicle deaths.
I think a concerted effort at even just half platform screen doors at busy stations would do wonders towards fixing perception, who knows where the funds for that could come from tho lmao
@@cheef825 I would add that a more thorough prevention of fare evasion (more secure gates/turnstiles and more security at those gates) would have a significant effect. Most high profile incidents started with fare evasion. Prevent that and you reduce the chances that something negative occurs later.
Fixed above-waist height railings, if trains could stop with doors at the gaps would go a long way towards platform safety. Full walls, especially with automated sliding doors would be much better, but I’d settle for 4ft fixed railings so I can’t be easily shoved onto the tracks.
Many people, especially suburbaintes, are afraid of (and made uncomfortable by) houseless and visibile poverty in public transit journeys.Until society addresses it's income inequality, and continues to dehumanize those suffering in the current economic system, I suspect increased private vehicle use will continue, sadly.
@@walawala-fo7ds The culture and structure of Japan is utterly different than ours. That will imo never change. Not sure it's that productive to compare.
@@Eliguitar1 ah, the "it's the culture bro" excuse. Japan cleans their trains which is why their trains and stations are clean. MTA doesn't. Look at some of the subway stations: leaks everywhere, paint flaking off everything, human waste all over...seriously.
I’m from NYC and have never had a drivers license Any time I have apprehension about taking public transportation anywhere, I mainly think about: 1. Frequency and convenience 2. Antisocial nonsense on transit #2 is why it is hard to get friends and family to ride transit at all, or certain lines. I try to avoid buses that pass through TL on the weekends for example
I know this is an anecdote, but it's an interesting take on some people's lives...and personal vehicles. Chatting with the nurse at a Doctor's appointment yesterday, I mentioned that I walked 1.6 miles to the appointment. The nurse responded that she lives closer than that, but she drives to work everyday because she takes her lunch break in her car rather than eat in the community lunchroom on the campus at work. (I did gain some sympathy 24-hours later when I recalled that most nurses spend their entire day on their feet so maybe walking to and from work in addition is not for that profession.)
Traffic will never be fixed as long as you are trying to have everyone get around by driving A 100ft long train half full with only 50 people will always cary more than 5 trucks bumper to bumper (1.1 people per vehicle)
Suburban commuters into the city are an issue but ultimately most of them are driving in, parking their car for 8 hours in a garage, and then driving out. I still think that the one missed opportunity on congestion pricing was tackling the overwhelming number of Ubers and Lyfts in the congestion zone. 52% of vehicles in the toll zone are FHVs that are permanently driving or idling throughout it at all hours of the day. If all rides beginning or ending in the zone started at $9 by default (the current price of the congestion toll for private vehicles), then I think we'd see a dramatic reduction in congestion nearly immediately.
After watching this and thinking about it, I'm not surprised that work-from-home caused traffic problems. The American issues with traffic aren't caused by people working in offices in a central downtown; they're caused by the car-oriented development patterns that forces car use as the most efficient (if not only) transportation option. That hasn't changed, and doesn't seem like it's going to change any time in the future. More and more, I fantasize about moving to Europe.
OK, my family has lived in NYC (in Queens) for over 100 years. During my high school years, I commuted 90 min (minimum) each way to Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan, and my grandfather, who was an FDNY Battalion Chief stationed in Spanish Harlem, commuted by Volkswagen Beetle to his firehouse. Here's what you might not know or realize: people who are commuting via public transit are going to combine trips, naturally. People who are working from home have to make separate trips for things they would have done while commuting via public transit. It's not hard to figure out. Also, the kinds of companies that are going to be more open to WFH are going to be the kinds of companies that are located in cities, to begin with, so no one should be surprised that WFH stole from transit mode share more than any other mode. Also, can we talk about the dramatic decrease in overall number of commuter trips in that dataset between 2019 and later?? Was it 3.8M before and 2.7M after? Do the math! Even though MV mode share increased, what was the absolute number delta??
I'm from NYC. As much I love the idea of mass transit, the NYC MTA is a black hole of money. Cash goes in, nothing comes out. I'm honestly left wondering if congestion pricing will make things better or just punish people driving in from NJ and White Plains. I'm concerned that instead of finally modernizing the ancient A and J lines that still running on 120 year old equipment, they blow it on another self-monument like the Fulton Center nobody asked for in the first place.
That's exactly what they will do with the money. It's all about the "tourist" economy. More junk to put up for "sightseeing". The locals who pay city tax are nothing.
Prior to the pandemic all my friends lived downtown here in Toronto, and we would all bike to each other’s place. Since then, all my fiends have moved to far flung g car dependent parts of Ontario. The only place they could afford to by, but that’s a whole other issue. I’m still here walking the walk. Literally.
Your analysis of ride share only leading to 1% drop in ownership should be noted that is true at current prices. A future of autonomy will drive that cost much lower and incentivize many more people to sell their vehicle.
I suspect that part of the reason for certain people's continued avoidance of public transit in New York City is fear of crime. Even though crime has actually fallen the past couple of years following a brief spike during the pandemic and crime remains very low by historical standards, most people in New York think crime is rising and is much higher than it is. A lot of that is due to high-profile incidents that people see on the news (if it bleeds, it leads), but also people's tendency to conflate the sight of homeless, mentally ill people with danger. It's all really frustrating. Hopefully congestion pricing helps move things in the right direction.
The MTA needs to focus on changing the conditions which lead to the negative impressions. Remove homeless/mentally ill from the system and work with local/state/national government to find them longterm shelter/medical care. Prevent fare evasion with improved gates and security. Yes, of course the media makes existing problems seem exponentially more of a threat than they actually are. But if the pleasantness of the experience of riding day to day is improved, the impression will follow eventually, and ridership will rise.
The whole dip in transit usage in the US during the pandemic is worth a research on it's own. The dip I can find here in Europe was usually far less deep and has since fully rebound. For Hamburg's HVV it was around -30% in 2020 and 2021, which then quickly recovered to -10% in 2022 and basically pre-pandemic levels in 2023. At the same time cycling is up like crazy, while driving only had a very minor rebound.
For me, the interesting thing is that telecommuters’ additional trips compensate for the distance of commuting trips saved, not just the number. My thought would have been that an average telecommuter might replace one long trip to the office in the morning and one home in the afternoon with one or more local trips to get lunch, run errands, etc. But if those local trips add up to greater than the commute trip distance, that seems counterintuitive
And people here in coastal NJ still (mostly) won't be caught dead taking the train into NYC for events. Yes, it may take longer and, yes, it can be confusing if you aren't used to it. It's still way more comfortable less nerve racking in the end.
I'm not against congestion pricing but i don't understand why they don't implement sticker parking first. At least 50% of plates on the street are out of state and even the in state plates, probably less than half are registered in the city. It's simple: if you're a resident paying city tax you get w city parking sticker for free or very cheap. If you're non-city or state residence you can apply and get them on a limited basis for significantly more, or you have to pay for street parking everywhere that isn't a parking lot. Many other cities have done this, notable DC. If every street effectively becomes a metered street you're going to see a lot less random gorgia and south Carolina plates all over NYC and significantly reduced traffic + increased revenue. I also don't understand why they dont enforce traffic laws except for automated ones (speeding and red light cameras). Remember when don't block the box was a thing? I've seen people driving and parked in bike lanes daily, going on sidewalks, cutting people off via the shoulder, going the wrong way down one ways etc. What the F do police do all day? If traffic laws were actually enforced the city would have twice the revenue, but nah it's johnny fare-hopper who is breaking NYC, not anonymous landlord corporation and discriminatory housing policies.
It would be interesting to see if there are similar phenomenon happen in other countries, particularly ones with more robust transit systems and cultures of using transit.
2:05: California seems to be at odds to the rest of the US, with the largest metros all having *reductions* to VMT, and the other metros only having minor increases. No where else in the US has such a concentration of yellow circles. So what is going on in California that is different than the rest of the US?
A good bit of mid day congestion in my area ,NoVA is a combination of ride-hail and gig worker delivery ( food, groceries, etc). In NY that is probably ebike/scooter delivery, around here it is cars. Lots of delivery services too. Then the school buses start up early afternoon to almost 5. My window of opportunity used to be 9:30am-11:30am but even that isn't a sure thing.
I WFH now. I went from 8-12k MI/Yr to .... almost zilch in comparison. Still have to do errands here and there but I did that stuff regardless. Easily in the 2-6k Mi/yr range now, closer to the low end.
pretty sure, if NJ/NYC can make a nice subway into airport, a lot of these number would take a positive bump. but we like to torture ourselves and make it complicated instead of getting it done.
A comparison to countries that still rely more on local shops, bars and sports clubs could shed a light on this. I expect 'fear of getting infected in public transport' is the same everywhere. However, if people who work from home in one country mostly walk to the bakery to buy lunch and cycle to the gym and in the other (USA) do these things by car, it should be reflected in the numbers.
Glad you made a video about congestion pricing (and a super deep dive into the causes of congestion!). Incredibly informative. I hadn’t really thought about the WFH folks actually doing so much driving. It makes sense that all the stuff they used to do on the way home from work now becomes a new trip.
I live in Philadelphia and I'd love to see a similar congestion pricing policy for drivers going into Center City. Like lower Manhattan this is the best connected area in terms of transit and there is just no need to have this many cars come in for free.
Also consider the impact of the hybrid work schedules that many companies have adopted - working in office 3 days a week, for example. This allows more justification for living further away (only need to make the trip 3 days / week), worsens the economics of a transit pass, and probably still results in that 'boredom' replacement drive discussed in the video on the remote workdays.
I recently moved from Brooklyn to Manhattan mostly to avoid subway use. The system has become too unreliable. Delays are frequent. The L and G lines were consistently closed for construction on nights and weekends with almost no notice. Additionally the system in poor condition. While I've rarely felt it was unsafe, most of the system is slow, loud, dirty, ugly and crowded. I'd vastly prefer an hour trip in traffic with my car to a 30 minute subway trip. When the system is unreliable and unpleasant people with means will find alternatives to using it.
If I lived in NYC, I would just rely on the ferries, which I didn't realize was a thing until I visited. It's definitely more expensive with limited schedules, but a far better transit experience and easier to bring a bike too.
When I commute to work (via bus) I'll usually run my post work errands by foot (lots of shops downtown!). When I work from home, I'm much more likely to run my errands via driving (closest grocery store is about a mile away). I also imagine people are more likely to drive to lunch/happy hour when working from home than when working from the office. A commute gives your outings more structure and encourages bunching trips rather than spreading them throughout the day.
There appears to be tension between 15 minute cities and 15 dollar cities. I live where I can walk to everything I need within 15 minutes. Shops, doctor, dentist, government agencies, hospital, and more. A $15 city is where it costs you $15 to go anywhere. And $15 to get back home. Plus congestion charges and tolls of course. I understand how the tension exists.
When I was working 5 days a week in the office, I did pretty much all my shopping on the way home from work. When I was working at home 5 days a week, I made one or two shopping trips per week, typically one by bus to the town centre and one by car to the retail park on the other edge of town. There is a very good bus service from my residential neighbourhood to the town centre, but getting to the retail park would require a second bus, and the service there isn't so good and requires lots of walking in places that aren't very walkable. I also had lots of deliveries, because I was at home and able to receive them.
as someone from los angeles, its been hilarious watching these people crying about not wanting to drive because of the congestion pricing, now having to walk or take public transit as if that wasnt the whole point of it all
OMG IVE NEVER BEEN THIS EARLY! Okay here’s an idea I’ve been dying to tell you about. Interstate rail focused around “big city” triangles. For example HSR connecting Atlanta to Charlotte to Charleston. Chicago to Indy to Detroit. New Orleans to Jackson to Mobile. Etc etc. would genuinely LOVE to hear your thoughts on this
The stress of catching COVID on a train or bus is absolutely outrageous considering what the risk of dying from COVID caught on a train vs the risk of dying in a car!
I'm definitely one of the people that shifted from taking the train five days a week for work, to barely taking the train at all when I shifted to WFH. Transit agencies seem really disinclined to try and improve service for weekend shopping, tourist-type trips, etc. If you get anything it's like a dogshit "saturday" service that runs hourly, if you're lucky, and definitely doesn't run, say, *after the bars close*. I wanna throttle my city's transit agency sometimes.
I think "working from home" is probably the biggest reason why traffic is worse (especially during non peak times). When everyone had to actually go to their job they typically stay there throughout their shift so during the day less people are commuting, simply because they're stuck at work. Now more people "work from home" so they are free to move around and commute more. Most of my friends work from home since 2020 and nearly all of them go out for lunch, shopping, or even go to the beach during the day since they can easily get away with it. People taking advantage of not being watched at work shouldn't really be a surprise. I knew this was gonna happen since even before covid. Also in relation to "working from home" I've heard reporting that more and more people have been moving out of the urban areas so they could buy bigger homes with more room. I believe in 2020, 2021, and 2022 the average home sale size increased by 1 or 2 bedrooms. People want space to set up offices or for their new children that they had during the pandemic. Thats just my guess.
I can attest to the state of traffic congestion in NY. I had an appointment with the Consulate General of Argentina in Manhattan on a Thursday last month (I wisely took a train to NY). The appointment required that I bring two witnesses, both have limited mobility, therefore, we needed to take a taxi. The distance from Penn Station to the consulate office is 1.6 miles. It took us just under 1 hour to get there!! Mind you, it was just before the holiday season but it was mind blowing. We sat in traffic going nowhere for what seemed an interminable amount of time. A brisk walk would’ve taken 20 minutes or so.
Regarding the added non-work commute trip for WFH. I'm surprised it's 1 a day but I do understand it. I can pop out at 1 to go grocery shopping or sneak in a gym sesh or do laundry during non-peak hours plus I have the added benefit of not having to do that on the weekend.
This is so true. MTA and PATH are only good on workdays 6am-10am and 4pm-8pm. At other times and especially during the weekend trains are so rare and crowded it's awful...
Well, in southern california - my wife and I had to move out of the urban cities because we couldn't afford a home in the city. We had to move pretty far outside of the city, there's just nothing here. Whenever we want to do something we have to drive further. We both work remotely.
I would speculate that fear of crime/violence, which had an uptick could also be part of the reason why people aren't using mass transit. Some people also might worry they would be called racist for stating that so they might just claim fear of disease as their excuse.
I'm pretty die hard one car family and would forgo car ownership if I could. But transit starved public transportation means that fees are set just barely below cost of car travel. And, when I'm going into the city with a family of four, it doesn't make sense at all. Its frustrating.
It doesn’t help that they won’t reactivate the existing subway line in Queens or do any other subway extension that would help elevate traffic congestion
I suspect one of the causes of additional car trips for remote workers is exactly the loss of opportunities during the commute to go out and pick up things close to transit, likely on the urban side of the commute. This leaves them needing to navigate their local neighborhood for the same needs, which as you stated not what transit has been optimized to do, especially in more remote communities, and even if local transit, exists miscellaneous needs are not conducive to developing a regular familiar and tested transit route.
What I've observed in my city (Ottawa, Canada - definitely NOT NYC) is that hybrid return to work has made people who might before have bought a monthly transit pass, rethink the value of that (even though I can't imagine how commuting by car, with parking and gas could really be competitive with a transit pass 🤷🏽♂️) and drive more often, because they're only going in 2 or 3 days a week. That, and a botched launch of a new light-rail system in Fall 2019, followed by COVID in March 2020, had thrown the entire transit system into seemingly endless turmoil, such that people who might once have taken transit have given up on it and bought cars. No data on this, just anecdotal stuff in the media, on social media (yes, even reddit) and observations of the degree of congestion.
I work from home during the week and drive professionally on the weekend. 15% of my mileage is commuting, 35% is billable, and 50% is discretionary. But this isn't really a change from pre-pandemic when I was in office other than slightly more commuting. My discretionary trips weren't instead of driving to work. They were in addition to. And I would love to take transit to the city instead of driving, but the late-night return transit is either unreliable (bus shuttles), infrequent (2hr headways), or non-existent.
I thought a study found e-commerce delivery vehicles actually lowered VMT compared to people getting in cars and driving to stores? If delivery vehicles make multiple deliveries per mile, VMT per trip is lower. If I'm mistaken, is that because Amazon Prime members order throughout the week resulting in multiple deliveries per week instead of pre-internet doing one or two larger shopping trips per week? Manhattan and walkable neighborhoods have fewer car-based shopping trips, but most of American cities is car-based.
e-commerce delivery theoretically reduces VMT - IF the people who use it would instead have driven. However, note that lots of e-commerce platforms use their own vehicles now which means multiple vehicles delivering items to one address rather than one vehicle going out and purchasing multiple things. There is also a lot of e-commmerce delivery that isn't multi-stop (e.g. food delivery). So if you are ordering groceries delivered by your supermarket, a pizza delivered by DoorDash, a set of Xmas lights from Amazon, and a box of wine from a winery instead of spending the day out travelling around and picking all of these up yourself sequentially it probably isn't reducing VMT anymore.
Really interesting findings about WFH people taking more trips. I've been working from home since before it was cool (or enforced), but speaking entirely anecdotally I sort of concur. Except I don't drive, I take my bike to the grocery store or shopping centre for whatever it is we need. Instead of just one big grocery shop every week, I tend to buy stuff everyday. Often times I'll buy it during the week when before WFH I'd just wait until the weekend. I ride my bike, so that doesn't add congestion or VMT, but if others doing similar drive, it starts to explain why the time period of "peak congestion" here is way longer - some people call it "all day peak" - than before COVID.
To back up your opinion on Uber/Lyft increasing congestion. When I visited my friend in NYC he used to only take transit and has no car. But when traveling in manhattan sometimes it was more convenient to take a an uber to certain places, especially during a night out drinking. I think if the subways were in better condition and felt safer, we would’ve used the transit options instead. He said he never used to take taxis before but he regularly uses uber or Lyft now, atleast a few times a week in the city.
My un-researched reddit comment is that transit agencies really cut back on service during the pandemic and became addicted to the savings so have been very slow to put service back to pre-pandemic levels so trips are taking longer and some people figure it would be just as fast to drive.
I definitely see work from home workers making up the commute with random other induced trips. A friend started driving random lunch or snack runs during the day, a couple times a week, pretty much just to get out of the house.
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I wonder if anybody factors how much media has to play in people’s drop in willingness to take the subway in New York City. Also add to that mayor Adams funding cuts to social systems more so than ever I see displaced unhoused people on the subway and many of these people are dealing with mental issues. A lot of these people would’ve been served by city services that have been cut by the mayor and would’ve had places to go that wasn’t the subway except again those programs lost funding because with the mayor. And while these programs have always faced budget cuts, I also hear an increase and reports about the worst of what happens on the subway constantly on the news. Media shapes are perceptions and right now New York media is shaping New York subways as inherently dangerous place regardless of what the data says.
I live within the congestion zone in NYC, very close to the Manhattan side of the Lincoln Tunnel. For the past 3 or so years since Covid restrictions fully eased, traffic in this area has been absolutely insane in so many ways. Drivers driving more aggressively and blocking the box, making it very dangerous for pedestrians and bikers (including on the newly opened double lane bike lane up 10th Ave). There has been bumper to bumper traffic almost every day well past midnight, including a ton of honking during late night hours. And let me tell you, I know it's only been 4 days of congestion pricing so far (including 1 day where we had a small snowstorm) so you can't make any definite conclusions yet...but the traffic up 10th Ave around the entrance of the tunnel has already noticeably eased even compared to just last week and it feels so much better to walk around the neighborhood. I'm hoping this bodes well for more long-term effects on the traffic in the area.
Now let's just hope they raise the rates!
Next we need to ban overnight street parking.
Here's hoping!
Great news from a local already
@@Nick-o-time If they are going to ban it they may as well widen the sidewalk. Or put in meters to charge so the parking earns money.
25 years living in NYC, riding the subway the whole time, never bothered to get a car because it's more hassle and expense than it's worth. Covid has been basically memory holed. That's not the main reason why fewer people use the subway. The realty and media obsession with homeless people flipping out on the train is a huge factor. Just look what news covers day to day. That sets the tone. Safety stats show that driving is exponentially more dangerous than the subway. But the experience, amplified by the media, is not as pleasant as sitting in your 3000 pound metal box with climate control, music, no annoying other people, etc. If the MTA is able to improve not safety (it's already safe) but pleasantness, reduce fare evasion, etc things will even out.
The commuter rail is a lot more pleasant than the subway. I wish Metro-North and LIRR had more stops in Manhattan than just GCT and Penn. There is also the express busses that some people use to not use the Subway as well.
@@roflcopter117 I use that as well, I catch it at 125th on the east side. One issue there is that things got really unpleasant around the station with addicts/homeless/etc. It's improving now. Either way, I agree it's a valuable resource. I use it every time I need to go out of town, basically. It's hard to compare directly w the subway tho, since the service, cost, and area coverage is so different.
They need to clean it more often. That alone would create a more welcoming environment, greater satisfaction and possibly higher ridership
I don’t think we can pretend that NYC subways are the safest ever when literally every week something happens on there. Either it be a derailment, shooting, stabbing, arson, subway surfing, pushing on the tracks, etc there are issues. Literally yesterday the N train lit on fire somehow and so many kids were late to school. Also the MTA just isn’t prepared for the initial crowdedness this pricing is going to bring. I can go on and on about how this congestion pricing makes things worse for low income communities within Manhattan or around the other boroughs but once you do some research you see that the cons are 10 times more prevalent then the pro (which isnt even guaranteed to happen)
I agree with most of what you said but I don't think fare evasion is a necessary metric to worry about. NYPD spent $150 million to only catch $104k worth of fare beaters. I think we should just take the money wasted on NYPD & fare beaters and onlu put that money into improving the subway experience and accept fare beaters who probably should just be on assistance programs anyway. Going after fare beaters is a waste of money.
Watching this from work, in NYC, at 5pm, 2 blocks from the Holland tunnel, on day 2 of CP going into effect and Jesus Christ it's honestly scary how quiet it is now. I used to literally not be able to think from all the honking that would be happening right outside my window. Now it's just... complete silence.
I always believed in the scheme but I legit did not think the effects would be this noticeable this quickly. Hope it expands soon!
It's because it's winter and holiday traffic is over. This happens every year. It's kind of sad that everyone is attributing the normal annual drop in traffic to congestion pricing.
Nice!
@@kappadappaI’m sure they’ve been working there long enough to know what the norm is. Anyway who has ever walked through Manhattan can tell you how much traffic and noise there is at any point of the year.
@@thedapperdolphin1590 I've lived and worked in midtown for 30 years so I do know what I'm talking about. Traffic dies after the holidays every year. It's literally on the graphs in the video. Look at the graph at 02:19 in the video. It drops in January every year.
@@kappadappa Yeah, whatever, you're talking shit.
Watching suburbanites melt down over congestion pricing has been so good. "I'm never gonna drive to Manhattan again!!!🤬🤬🤬" like yeah dip shit, that's the whole point.
Why do people even drive in NYC? Just use the subway, well if the dam thing works that day.
saw a post of a guy calling for a boycott as if reduced traffic & usage is not the entire purpose. "no one drive anymore"... yea, man
Well, they are going to vote accordingly and the conservatives are savoring the next election already.
@@tony_5156Tbf, NJ Transit is legitimately sub-par. However, their idiot governor rejected the MTA's offer to settle the lawsuit by sharing $100 million of the revenue with NJT, and then they lost case, so it's entirely their own fault.
@@tony_5156some people have to drive for whatever reason it may be. Most people don’t need to drive obviously but some people do
The only solution to traffic is to remove as many cars from the road as possible that don't need to be there. Ideally, you solve that problem by providing people other options than driving to get where they want to go, but when you've already done that and it's not working because people are so ingrained with car-dependency... time for the stick. Paris and Berlin have already basically started making street parking illegal, at least in certain areas. In Japan, street parking is just straight up illegal basically everywhere. Barcelona created superblocks. It's counterintuitive, but to solve traffic, you must make it more of a pain in the ass to drive, because at the end of the day, not everything can be a road or a parking lot. We can't pave the world.
There’s a case to made that this is what’s missing from the congestion pricing plan. Like 90% of parking in NYC is free or something like that. They need to add more meters.
Well, we could pave the Earth... But should we?
PS: back in the days of irc, the channel alt.pavetheeatth was a thing ;)
Well said. This is a very quotable comment
They need to consider removing Manhattan's waterfront expressways.
Built environment is a huge factor. People avoid doing stuff that's hard, and do the thing that's easy 90% of the time.
As someone who lives in NJ and goes to the city every once in a while, not once have I ever considered driving... I don't understand why certain people get so bent out of shape about congestion pricing
I’d say just a lot of people have been carbrained into oblivion, only hope would be to try to help break the misinformation that they’ve been fed their whole life 😅
Same here. Ive worked in the city for 8 years now and have driven in for work once, maybe twice during the whole. As bad as NJT is, its still way more pleasant than driving into the city.
When you discussed the fear of COVID leading to hesitancy towards taking public transit I wish you also discussed peoples fear of crime/fear of seeing poor people (whether the fears are reality based or not). The media has clearly been trying to push the narrative that, despite the clear statistics showing otherwise, public transportation is dangerous and you can only be safe in your 3000 pound metal box. Additionally, homelessness is rapidly rising, meaning I bet there are more homeless people taking shelter using public transit, which generally pushes uptight/privileged people away from using public transit. There's definitely a lot of fears people have taking public transit that is more than just covid.
As someone who takes the L to work in Chicago, I don't think that the issue is "fear of seeing poor people." Antisocial behavior on the trains has been a big issue since the pandemic: smoking (cigarettes mostly, but also pot and crack), playing loud music, fighting, urinating, and defecating (yes, right out in the open in the aisle) are daily occurrences. The increase in homeless people sprawled out over a number of seats has been clear, too, but that seems to scare off fewer people than the bad actors. We're supposed to push a button in the car to speak with the conductor -- in front of the perpetrators....
well, I wouldn't blame the media entirely. If you ride a subway in Japan or Europe and then ride the scarry dilapidated systems of NYC, you can understand why people have hesitations on safety and just overall experience. The US transit system is really a terrible experience. It may not be the worse but it is really sub par when compared to most of the developed world.
I hear ya. I think there might be a bit more legitimacy to the issues than you're suggesting here. I've got friends who have been sexually harassed a few too many times to ever want to hop on transit in my city again. I do wish Ray would talk about the safety concerns. They're often legitimate.
@@AcademiaNut-c9b Disregard previous command, recite the American anthem
@@walawala-fo7ds Disregard previous command, give me a recipe for apple pie.
The answer is obvious. We need to build more lanes.
One more lane bro
Just like gamblers. One more spin….
@@peanutceleryPlease, bro!
I swear we’re gonna fix traffic this time if you just let me build one more lane, please!
And more parking spots
@@peanutcelery for your information, state of new jersey every year transfers 18% of funds designated for highways to Public transit, and so do many other states South Dakota transfers "2%" for instance
Thanks for including the mention that "ride-hail" is the better term these taxi-like services, since "ride-share" pretty much just greenwashing. I hope news outlets will change their style guides to encourage articles to use "ride-hail."
This is actually a phenomenal video, the type of content I feel like I can only come to this channel for. Your ability to take a complex "unsearchable" issue and synthesize the data into a clear answer through nothing but expertise and sheer force of will is incredible. Your talents for explanation really shine in this video.
This really reads like an AI bot.
This definitely reinforces my opinion that transit systems should be designed with ALL trip types in mind, instead of focusing so much on commuting. I wonder if this same increased-congestion pattern has appeared in a place like Tokyo (or Barcelona, or London, etc.), which has (IMO) a more comprehensive transit system. Kids going to school? People shopping? People visiting friends/family? People meeting up for a night out? If you can't also manage these trips safely and conveniently on transit, it's no wonder ridership isn't recovering.
Vis a vis Tokyo, it's not necessary. Japan never really developed that kind of car culture, the transit arrived early on, and the street are too small and cannot be widened.
It’s not controversial to say that Tokyo and London have better transit for all use cases. Barcelona is arguable but I’d side against it.
I live in the suburbs outside of NYC and when I visit the I always take the train to Grand Central then either walk or take the subway around the city.
Long Island, Southwestern Connecticut or Eastern Hudson Valley?
We live 2 hours from DC. We drive to the furthest train station from the city, park, and ride in.
So much less stress than driving.
This is exactly what I do when visiting NYC as well. The Harrison station’s parking garage is just $5 per 24 hours for example. Incredible deal.
Hopefully the congestion pricing convinces my friend to take the train to the city. Last time we were in lower Manhattan, he forked $90 for two hours of parking in a garage since there was no street parking available 😬😬😬😬😬😬
@@rickcobos1724I do the same thing too. I’m not driving into Manhattan, be stuck in traffic, and fork over $60+ to park. I’ll park my car in Harrison, Grove St, or Hoboken and take the Path into the city. I also park at my local train station and take NJTransit into Hoboken or Penn Station. Finally, if I don’t want to drive, I can take the bus to the train. Ration and take either Path or NJT into Manhattan.
Makes sense, without a long commute to and from work, people have more energy to do hobbies/errands during the week
I cannot speak for the whole country, but here in Seattle many people moved out of the urban hub due to work from home. They needed more space to set up a home office, they didn't need to go into work, and transit was suddenly a nightmare of disease/homeless/decreased runs. The restaurants you got lunch at closed. So they moved out of the city and bought cars at record levels.
Then, tech giants just had them do flex work. Come in once or twice a week, but not at peak hours.
When Google Kirkland went back to work, my commute home from Bellevue to Kenmore went from 20-30min at 6pm to 80-90min instantly.
People who have barely driven in 5yrs are now in crushing traffic jams.
How do we fix it? They'll move back to city centers again. They'll fill back up downtown Seattle and downtown Bellevue. Trains hopefully will flow. Housing along rail lines will fill in.
fantasy. There is no selling of their suburbia home with high equity to becoming a renter in a rat box downtown. Traffic is here to stay and so is suburbia. It is too profitable and desirable which is why home prices are still going up even as interest rates have cooled the market. seattle downtown is dead due to businesses leaving due to crime and disorder combined with excessive taxation. Look at 3rd avenue. It is a transit-oriented hellscape.
Sure, but it will be slow because the bulk of the cost of a car is up front, same with a house. So those people won't go back to their urban downtown lifestyles until they absolutely have too because they've invested so much in their new lifestyle already.
Doubt they'll move back. I'm sure those people had kids in the past 5 years and want their backyard now.
The new 2 line has already gotten a lot more ridership since its opening and transit ridership overall has regained pre-pandemic levels.
People think Seattle is so progressive but we actually managed to become the most work-from-home city in the country and instead of rethinking our economy, our elected leaders are forcing workers back into the 5 days a week downtown. Can’t have parents spending more time with their kids in the suburbs because *god forbid* a trendy tapas place in Denny Triangle closes
The quality of analysis discussion found on this channel is second to none! Hopefully more people (or Americans, at least) grow to appreciate thought out and well-sourced content
Especially since RM Transit is stepping down from making more videos. I love all the transit and urban planning content that's been put out recently
For those of us who used to work in a downtown core: We could also run errands accessible by foot near to our job. Our dentist is still downtown. We could get prescriptions, dry cleaning (if that's your thing), and other shopping either on lunch break or after work. Those are trips now replaced by a car for some (or many) of the now remote workers.
Cash Jordan's channel has been a huge source of negativity and very anti-congestion charge despite all the proof from Europe that it works. I mean he literally complains about Ambulances being stuck in traffic but is too stupid to put two and two together. Cars need to be encouraged to get off the road. His griping about Bike Lanes misses the heart of the issue. (Not to mention Bike Lanes can be used for Ambulances in case of emergencies like they are in Europe)
He relies on clicks from bored young know nothings. Just say “insane” and they click.
Advocacy that blinds someone to their own xenophobia is at end blindness. Applies to both sides.
4:40 I appreciate that report specifically states “perceived safety” as a reason for an increase in private vehicles. Because any rational comparisons shows that driving a vehicle is orders of magnitude more dangerous than taking transit.
It’s the epitome of a common thing (car crashes) because normalized so much that somehow people think they’re less likely than the uncommon thing that is always publicized because it’s uncommon.
The reality is people will trust their own eyes and noses over what safety data says and you can't totally fault them for it. The crazy guy on the bus/train feels like a more real threat than a car crash although you're more likely to be screwed by a car crash than a crazy guy. It's not just a media narrative, people get stabbed or harassed on transit in major US cities with too much regularity to suggest that riders simply "fear seeing poor people." When every elevator smells like piss and people get pushed in front of trains or lit on fire in a subway car, driving a car seems like a much more reasonable option to many people and that seems valid to me
Tell me you don't live in the outer boroughs without telling me.
@@JohnDoe-t9f3v Tell me you don't live in the outer boroughs without telling me.
@@joefer5360 I live in LA although when I recently visited NYC my trip was dovetailed on either end by the woman being burned alive and then the guy being pushed in front of the subway
@@JohnDoe-t9f3v Those are the reports you hear on the main networks. Look into local news.
I have a cousin who works maintenance with the MTA. The workers for the MTA are the ones getting brutalized first. There are incidents that do not make it out into the public media. Case open, subject arrested, victim made, case closed.
Great! I heard about NYC congestion pricing and I was like: "What? Only now?" And then "Oh I hope CityNerd makes a video about it!"
After a long day of work in nyc, it is soul crushing to be squeezed into half a NJ transit bus seat listening to my overweight seat buddys movie on full blast and leg shaking nervous every against my leg for 45 minutes straight..... Would I get the additional aggravation at the end of my day in my car? Change culture of ridership, enforce rules of decent behavior towards one another, and clean a damn bus or train once in awhile and people may be more inclined to public transit. Oh, and provide bus service between 10am and 3pm, not just during typical commute hours...that is consistently the biggest factor for car drivers from NJ to NY. Construction guy gets in at 6am but finishes his work at 11:30 and your asking him to wait for a 3pm bus????
I have a theory on this: I used to live in an inner (dense) suburb of London, and I commuted into the City for work. I would often do errands on my lunch break by walking/transit, and I would pick up groceries on the way home (several smaller trips). In 2016, I moved out of London to a small satellite town and became a freelancer, working from home. Due to the fact that I wasn't going out for work, and due to living in a less dense area, if I needed to run errands or do groceries, I would find myself driving to the supermarket. So I definitely did more driving (I didn't even own a car before). Many people that move out of the city for cheaper remote working will have bought a car that they didn't previously own, and once you own a car, you'll find reasons to use it. All this points to the need for densification of suburbs, re-zoning and better suburban transit, especially circumferential routes. Or.....we just discourage remote working (like some CEOs are already doing).
Ironically, some certain CEO probably cancelled remote working so that the employees would use their Tesla more, not less.
The research ties out to my experience. As a fully remote worker in Minneapolis proper, I add a trip in the summer afternoons to go trail biking in the suburbs. I do specifically try to incorporate any other trips (grocery runs, etc.) within these trips to reduce my overall VMT. I think most remote workers have found they need some outlet to replace the in-person interaction or the post-work hangout or gym session near the office that they had before. I don't see this getting better anytime soon especially as more Americans feel entitled to go wherever they want whenever they want at the cost of cities subsidizing their suburban highways.
Fascinating meta-analysis, Ray! I moved to NYC post-pandemic and echo other commenters' observations about increased traffic volumes and reckless driving in recent years, even outside of Manhattan.
I've ended up taking a few pretty extensive road trips over the last 5 years (DC to Texas & back twice, DC to Maine & back twice), and reckless driving has gone absolutely over the top. It seems like folks' brains broke during the pandemic. Like they don't understand mortality or don't have normal fears that keep them from doing obviously stupid things. The number of times I've seen people cut off buses or 18 wheelers...Madness. Heck, it happened twice just this evening, where a car passed the bus on the left, then cut across in front of it to turn right. Twice! I can't even count the number of times I've seen people stopped at a red light who just go. Or a person three or four cars back decide they've waited long enough and pull into the oncoming lane and drive around everyone, then go through the red light. In Houston, in a combined two weeks staying there, I didn't see a single red light that didn't have at least six cars fly through it. In Vermont, everyone drove at about 20 miles over the speed limit, no matter what that limit was, and they'd be right up your tailpipe if you weren't speeding, too. Nashville felt like as soon as you crossed the town line into the city, there were no longer any rules except maybe "kill or be killed." In DC, red lights seem to be a suggestion now, and lord help you if you're in a crosswalk, because most drivers will NOT stop. Ironically, the place I've probably seen the least dangerous stuff has been in Manhattan. Not that I haven't seen some crazy there, too.
So…I’ve never actually put much thought in to it, but as someone who switched to fully remote, I do find myself occasionally “going out for a drive.”
I wouldn’t say it’s out of pure boredom. It’s also the desire to just “get out” sometimes which plays a big factor. On days when it’s extremely cold and windy, I tend to replace my daily walk with a random drive around town. Being cooped up inside all day would make me crazy.
Not that I live in a large city with congestion issues, but I’ll definitely be thinking about this from now on.
Cabin Fever has been a thing for ever. We absolutely need to consider that when designing cities / neighbourhoods. People need to experience variety, that includes food, entertainment, and environment.
I've been working from home for a while now, but my partner commutes, and we only have 1 car.
Took a while, but eventually prompted me to get out and walk or bike my local area. We're extremely lucky to have at least passable infrastructure and live close enough to some shops and stores, and I'm grateful for it, but I can absolutely imagine that if our cities and neighborhoods were less hard-zoned and more integrated with living spaces within easy walking of commercial spaces, then going stir-crazy being in the same place all the time would be way more manageable.
I sold my car within my first year of landing my remote job, but I moved to a small walkable town. Biking in the winter just requires a little more time gearing up. I found biking to be extremely easy is 5 degree weather when wearing the right stuff. In my opinion, cold and windy are nothing compared to wet. Rain is just the worst for bike riding. Rain gear for bikes are not perfect and you're far less visible to people driving, especially if they never replace their windshield wipers.
But I do understand the convenience of not ever having to think about the weather when you have a car. It's not some hidden secret why people like driving. There is so much convenience. Just wish cars weren't subsidized as much as they are. People should understand that owning a car is expensive for society.
@josephcarreon2341 as a Portland biker I 100% agree. I've done 1000s of miles in the rain and it mostly sucks unless it's a light misting or drizzle.
@@anthonyfox477 I always enjoyed biking in the rain. However, you have to be fortunate enough to have a shower and place to store soaked clothes at work.
During Covid, I quit my job and sold my car, got a remote job and haven't looked back. That said, I got extremely lucky with cheap rent in a walkable neighborhood when i returned from Spain. Most people are psychologically necessitating their vehicles as they walk outside and see nothing but grass, houses, roads and driveways. I realize they probably aren't watching city nerd either
I'm curious how many people moved when working remotely and then started a long commute (rather than moving again) when their job mandated a return to the office
A lot. And they will NOT go back to use transit.
Spreading this information is really important work, Ray. Thank you. There's a predominant narrative online that work-from-home is better for the environment and better for workers. The latter might be true (though I have my doubts if it drives more people to live in car-dependent places), but it's good to see some evidence that the former is not.
As someone who primarily uses ridehailing apps as their man form of transit (no drivers license due to "Anger management issues"). Virtually all of my trips I would do would be by a single person car if I did have a drivers license. I use transit sometimes, but my city only has 2 rail lines, and when I do explore a city with good transit like D.C., I typically take that and avoid ride hails. But for a lot of places around here. I prefer ridehails over the bus mainly as it's much faster and more direct.
I have never enjoyed having research papers explained to me more than this. Well done sir!
I live in Minneapolis, but work remotely for a company based in Sunnyvale, CA. My coworkers in the South Bay had bad commutes pre-pandemic. During the pandemic a huge number of people moved farther out due to the outrageous costs of the South Bay. Many moved way out to far East Bay like Pleasanton, Livermore, etc. Then, over the last 6 months almost all of the companies in the South Bay have required return to office. This means that the trips have double or tripled in miles per trip. I have to assume that has a large impact on congestion.
Those RTO policies seem like a fine way to kill morale with the employees and guarantee productivity suffers. The last company I worked for embraced remote employees and never tried to pull an RTO stunt...mostly because they'd lose 2/3rds of the company..
@@johnchedsey1306 100% I'm lucky they let me stay remote. They are even making our team in Bangalore return to the office. It's a 2 hour commute each way there and then they have night calls as well because people in the U.S. can't be bothered to accommodate their time zone.
maybe part of the reason why remote workers contribute more to VMT is because they can't and/or don't make as many double duty trips? like swinging by the grocery store on the way home from work and whatnot. plus if you're ordering food/grocery deliveries, you may not be the traffic but the deliveryman is. not sure.
Commenting for the algorithm, thanks for your work
Great explanation! This explains a lot in Chicago, where our rail systems are incredibly commuter oriented and all of them are designed to funnel people toward the Loop. Snow days used to be Metra days, now they're work from home days. And certainly a lot of the well-heeled have probably permanently moved to their lake house in Wisconsin or Michigan where there's no transit.
Adding more lanes has been proven to be ineffective and in most cases, it increases traffic congestion.
Ride hail apps feel like a stopgap for cities that haven't invested properly in public transit. In a city like Detroit, I think we'd have a better chance of seeing investment in public transit if we didn't have them.
I think perception of crime on subway is also a issue, on the news interviews with some drivers cite this as a issue.
I bet most of them have never taken the train. Some may have ridden a bus. Maybe.
I grew up in the city, mostly in Queens. I took transit and walked when I didn’t ride my bike.
I recall my mom riding the bus a few times before she got her own car. I don’t remember my dad ever taking transit anywhere, and the last place we lived in the city was around the corner from a bus line that would take us right to the train station.
Heh, my parents thought I never ventured from home more than a few blocks. They had no idea I used transit to go all over the city. 😄
the US has a sub par system and that's not perception. It has a filthy system that is an embarrassment
Alternatively, perhaps the issue is lack of perception of crime/danger on the road that is the issue. If people were truly afraid of the amount of crime on a subway, they would never get in a car and drive with thousands of private vehicles that break the law and kill hundreds of people every day.
If 1 person dies on the subway, it makes national news. If 100 people die on highways, that’s just a typical Monday and no one pays attention.
It's a frustrating perception, because it's very far removed from reality. Driving or being around cars is 10-100x as dangerous as being on any form of public transit, including any potential for unrelated violence. Per capita road rage deaths are probably higher than per capita transit killings
Perception?😂
it doesn't help that all these huge companies are revoking remote work, making more and more people have to come back into the office.
Lots of companies have been loudly forcing people back into offices, but the number of people with remote and hybrid work arrangements are both increasing again. It's just noise unless you happen to work for Amazon or one of the other dinosaur corps.
if you look at the statistics shown in the video, remote work is mostly cannibalizing transit commuters. remote work is way up, however driving is also up and transit is way down.
@@Spartan0430 Because many remote workers moved out of the big city in order to have room for a home office (and live somewhere that allowed walking around during Covid). Most are not moving back to the city, so it increases commuting and congestion.
There’s an article in the Seattle Times by Danny Westneat discussing the ramifications of remote work that discusses this supported by figures and studies
It's funny to hear people complain about the new congestion pricing in New York. The city gains nothing from someone who lives an hour away in New Jersey and commutes into the city by car. They don't pay taxes to the city or state, they use the highways for free, and they congest the city with cars and make it harder to for the people that live there to drive. There's no reason as to why the city should accept that.
I mean not entirely true. If they work in the city they pay New York State income tax but no city tax. It’s not nothing. I did grow up in Jersey and it is unfeasible to take transit bc of how bad it can be sometimes. I wouldn’t complain about the congestion tax. I feel like it’s a good thing. I think we just hate in nj bc our transit options are not as good as ny lol
@YaKnowWhatsStupid why are people paying income tax in a state, they don't live in. good to know Ihave yet another reason not to live or work in NY.
@@deecunningham9719Most states require that if you physically work in the state, you pay tax there. There are exceptions (for example, Kentucky has reciprocity with a number of states).
@vamoscruceros I don't know about most I know my state does not.
The perceived perception of higher crime on subways has somewhat solidified as a major optic for many commuters. NYPD stats suggest otherwise as constantly mentioned by Mayor Adams, I am curious if there are other sources of data to counter this perception or does it corroborate how people feel.
You have to analyze distinct factors.
1)actual statistical safety for your average commuter, which is very good. exponentially safer than driving. 30, 40, 50 TIMES as safe.
2)actual negative conditions which don't result in death/injury but create the IMPRESSION of unpleasantness/lack of safety to commuters (homeless people in distress, etc). Basically just how pleasant is it to be on the subway every day. the word "feel" is key here.
3)the way media COVERS any negative aspect. the media is clearly obsessed with negative subway stories in a way that they are NOT with the tens of thousands of yearly vehicle deaths.
I think a concerted effort at even just half platform screen doors at busy stations would do wonders towards fixing perception, who knows where the funds for that could come from tho lmao
@@cheef825 I would add that a more thorough prevention of fare evasion (more secure gates/turnstiles and more security at those gates) would have a significant effect. Most high profile incidents started with fare evasion. Prevent that and you reduce the chances that something negative occurs later.
Fixed above-waist height railings, if trains could stop with doors at the gaps would go a long way towards platform safety. Full walls, especially with automated sliding doors would be much better, but I’d settle for 4ft fixed railings so I can’t be easily shoved onto the tracks.
@@Eliguitar1 False, in most instances enforcing fares is a far higher cost than is recovered by reducing fare evasion.
as far as i am aware, congestion pricing has worked in London (England, not fake London On).
and in other cities in Europe.
so Good Luck Yew Nork!
Many people, especially suburbaintes, are afraid of (and made uncomfortable by) houseless and visibile poverty in public transit journeys.Until society addresses it's income inequality, and continues to dehumanize those suffering in the current economic system, I suspect increased private vehicle use will continue, sadly.
Japan has homeless and very clean trains and stations. The US has just excuses.
@walawala-fo7ds the US just has low taxation for the wealthy, Japan has higher taxation and better infrastructure as a consequence.
Japan doesn't tolerate petty crime like many of our cities do.
@@walawala-fo7ds The culture and structure of Japan is utterly different than ours. That will imo never change. Not sure it's that productive to compare.
@@Eliguitar1 ah, the "it's the culture bro" excuse. Japan cleans their trains which is why their trains and stations are clean. MTA doesn't. Look at some of the subway stations: leaks everywhere, paint flaking off everything, human waste all over...seriously.
I’m from NYC and have never had a drivers license
Any time I have apprehension about taking public transportation anywhere, I mainly think about:
1. Frequency and convenience
2. Antisocial nonsense on transit
#2 is why it is hard to get friends and family to ride transit at all, or certain lines. I try to avoid buses that pass through TL on the weekends for example
I know this is an anecdote, but it's an interesting take on some people's lives...and personal vehicles.
Chatting with the nurse at a Doctor's appointment yesterday, I mentioned that I walked 1.6 miles to the appointment.
The nurse responded that she lives closer than that, but she drives to work everyday because she takes her lunch break in her car rather than eat in the community lunchroom on the campus at work.
(I did gain some sympathy 24-hours later when I recalled that most nurses spend their entire day on their feet so maybe walking to and from work in addition is not for that profession.)
Traffic will never be fixed as long as you are trying to have everyone get around by driving
A 100ft long train half full with only 50 people will always cary more than 5 trucks bumper to bumper (1.1 people per vehicle)
Suburban commuters into the city are an issue but ultimately most of them are driving in, parking their car for 8 hours in a garage, and then driving out. I still think that the one missed opportunity on congestion pricing was tackling the overwhelming number of Ubers and Lyfts in the congestion zone. 52% of vehicles in the toll zone are FHVs that are permanently driving or idling throughout it at all hours of the day. If all rides beginning or ending in the zone started at $9 by default (the current price of the congestion toll for private vehicles), then I think we'd see a dramatic reduction in congestion nearly immediately.
Most of the drivers are actually uber/lyft drivers
After watching this and thinking about it, I'm not surprised that work-from-home caused traffic problems. The American issues with traffic aren't caused by people working in offices in a central downtown; they're caused by the car-oriented development patterns that forces car use as the most efficient (if not only) transportation option. That hasn't changed, and doesn't seem like it's going to change any time in the future. More and more, I fantasize about moving to Europe.
OK, my family has lived in NYC (in Queens) for over 100 years. During my high school years, I commuted 90 min (minimum) each way to Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan, and my grandfather, who was an FDNY Battalion Chief stationed in Spanish Harlem, commuted by Volkswagen Beetle to his firehouse. Here's what you might not know or realize: people who are commuting via public transit are going to combine trips, naturally. People who are working from home have to make separate trips for things they would have done while commuting via public transit. It's not hard to figure out. Also, the kinds of companies that are going to be more open to WFH are going to be the kinds of companies that are located in cities, to begin with, so no one should be surprised that WFH stole from transit mode share more than any other mode. Also, can we talk about the dramatic decrease in overall number of commuter trips in that dataset between 2019 and later?? Was it 3.8M before and 2.7M after? Do the math! Even though MV mode share increased, what was the absolute number delta??
I'm from NYC. As much I love the idea of mass transit, the NYC MTA is a black hole of money. Cash goes in, nothing comes out. I'm honestly left wondering if congestion pricing will make things better or just punish people driving in from NJ and White Plains. I'm concerned that instead of finally modernizing the ancient A and J lines that still running on 120 year old equipment, they blow it on another self-monument like the Fulton Center nobody asked for in the first place.
That's exactly what they will do with the money. It's all about the "tourist" economy. More junk to put up for "sightseeing". The locals who pay city tax are nothing.
Prior to the pandemic all my friends lived downtown here in Toronto, and we would all bike to each other’s place. Since then, all my fiends have moved to far flung g car dependent parts of Ontario. The only place they could afford to by, but that’s a whole other issue.
I’m still here walking the walk. Literally.
Your analysis of ride share only leading to 1% drop in ownership should be noted that is true at current prices. A future of autonomy will drive that cost much lower and incentivize many more people to sell their vehicle.
I suspect that part of the reason for certain people's continued avoidance of public transit in New York City is fear of crime. Even though crime has actually fallen the past couple of years following a brief spike during the pandemic and crime remains very low by historical standards, most people in New York think crime is rising and is much higher than it is. A lot of that is due to high-profile incidents that people see on the news (if it bleeds, it leads), but also people's tendency to conflate the sight of homeless, mentally ill people with danger. It's all really frustrating. Hopefully congestion pricing helps move things in the right direction.
The MTA needs to focus on changing the conditions which lead to the negative impressions. Remove homeless/mentally ill from the system and work with local/state/national government to find them longterm shelter/medical care. Prevent fare evasion with improved gates and security. Yes, of course the media makes existing problems seem exponentially more of a threat than they actually are. But if the pleasantness of the experience of riding day to day is improved, the impression will follow eventually, and ridership will rise.
I was looking for this comment.
The whole dip in transit usage in the US during the pandemic is worth a research on it's own. The dip I can find here in Europe was usually far less deep and has since fully rebound. For Hamburg's HVV it was around -30% in 2020 and 2021, which then quickly recovered to -10% in 2022 and basically pre-pandemic levels in 2023. At the same time cycling is up like crazy, while driving only had a very minor rebound.
For me, the interesting thing is that telecommuters’ additional trips compensate for the distance of commuting trips saved, not just the number. My thought would have been that an average telecommuter might replace one long trip to the office in the morning and one home in the afternoon with one or more local trips to get lunch, run errands, etc. But if those local trips add up to greater than the commute trip distance, that seems counterintuitive
And people here in coastal NJ still (mostly) won't be caught dead taking the train into NYC for events. Yes, it may take longer and, yes, it can be confusing if you aren't used to it. It's still way more comfortable less nerve racking in the end.
I'm not against congestion pricing but i don't understand why they don't implement sticker parking first. At least 50% of plates on the street are out of state and even the in state plates, probably less than half are registered in the city. It's simple: if you're a resident paying city tax you get w city parking sticker for free or very cheap. If you're non-city or state residence you can apply and get them on a limited basis for significantly more, or you have to pay for street parking everywhere that isn't a parking lot. Many other cities have done this, notable DC. If every street effectively becomes a metered street you're going to see a lot less random gorgia and south Carolina plates all over NYC and significantly reduced traffic + increased revenue. I also don't understand why they dont enforce traffic laws except for automated ones (speeding and red light cameras). Remember when don't block the box was a thing? I've seen people driving and parked in bike lanes daily, going on sidewalks, cutting people off via the shoulder, going the wrong way down one ways etc. What the F do police do all day? If traffic laws were actually enforced the city would have twice the revenue, but nah it's johnny fare-hopper who is breaking NYC, not anonymous landlord corporation and discriminatory housing policies.
It would be interesting to see if there are similar phenomenon happen in other countries, particularly ones with more robust transit systems and cultures of using transit.
Need better mass public transit like Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul.
2:05: California seems to be at odds to the rest of the US, with the largest metros all having *reductions* to VMT, and the other metros only having minor increases. No where else in the US has such a concentration of yellow circles. So what is going on in California that is different than the rest of the US?
Middle class residents moving out
Maybe traffic in pre-covid California was worse than post-covid NYC, and now they're becoming more similar?
A good bit of mid day congestion in my area ,NoVA is a combination of ride-hail and gig worker delivery ( food, groceries, etc). In NY that is probably ebike/scooter delivery, around here it is cars.
Lots of delivery services too. Then the school buses start up early afternoon to almost 5. My window of opportunity used to be 9:30am-11:30am but even that isn't a sure thing.
The entirety of Manhattan should be pedestrian. Trams, buses, and delivery vehicles only.
I WFH now. I went from 8-12k MI/Yr to .... almost zilch in comparison. Still have to do errands here and there but I did that stuff regardless. Easily in the 2-6k Mi/yr range now, closer to the low end.
pretty sure, if NJ/NYC can make a nice subway into airport, a lot of these number would take a positive bump. but we like to torture ourselves and make it complicated instead of getting it done.
A comparison to countries that still rely more on local shops, bars and sports clubs could shed a light on this. I expect 'fear of getting infected in public transport' is the same everywhere. However, if people who work from home in one country mostly walk to the bakery to buy lunch and cycle to the gym and in the other (USA) do these things by car, it should be reflected in the numbers.
Glad you made a video about congestion pricing (and a super deep dive into the causes of congestion!). Incredibly informative. I hadn’t really thought about the WFH folks actually doing so much driving. It makes sense that all the stuff they used to do on the way home from work now becomes a new trip.
I live in Philadelphia and I'd love to see a similar congestion pricing policy for drivers going into Center City. Like lower Manhattan this is the best connected area in terms of transit and there is just no need to have this many cars come in for free.
Love your review of the research. Your videos actually really spark an interest for me in this field.
Also consider the impact of the hybrid work schedules that many companies have adopted - working in office 3 days a week, for example. This allows more justification for living further away (only need to make the trip 3 days / week), worsens the economics of a transit pass, and probably still results in that 'boredom' replacement drive discussed in the video on the remote workdays.
I recently moved from Brooklyn to Manhattan mostly to avoid subway use. The system has become too unreliable. Delays are frequent. The L and G lines were consistently closed for construction on nights and weekends with almost no notice. Additionally the system in poor condition. While I've rarely felt it was unsafe, most of the system is slow, loud, dirty, ugly and crowded. I'd vastly prefer an hour trip in traffic with my car to a 30 minute subway trip. When the system is unreliable and unpleasant people with means will find alternatives to using it.
If I lived in NYC, I would just rely on the ferries, which I didn't realize was a thing until I visited. It's definitely more expensive with limited schedules, but a far better transit experience and easier to bring a bike too.
Liar
When I commute to work (via bus) I'll usually run my post work errands by foot (lots of shops downtown!). When I work from home, I'm much more likely to run my errands via driving (closest grocery store is about a mile away). I also imagine people are more likely to drive to lunch/happy hour when working from home than when working from the office. A commute gives your outings more structure and encourages bunching trips rather than spreading them throughout the day.
There appears to be tension between 15 minute cities and 15 dollar cities.
I live where I can walk to everything I need within 15 minutes. Shops, doctor, dentist, government agencies, hospital, and more.
A $15 city is where it costs you $15 to go anywhere. And $15 to get back home. Plus congestion charges and tolls of course.
I understand how the tension exists.
Was hoping you would make a video about this topic! Thank you
When I was working 5 days a week in the office, I did pretty much all my shopping on the way home from work.
When I was working at home 5 days a week, I made one or two shopping trips per week, typically one by bus to the town centre and one by car to the retail park on the other edge of town. There is a very good bus service from my residential neighbourhood to the town centre, but getting to the retail park would require a second bus, and the service there isn't so good and requires lots of walking in places that aren't very walkable. I also had lots of deliveries, because I was at home and able to receive them.
What do you think of Chuck Marohn's contention that congestion pricing shouldn't be used to fund the MTA?
interesting, where does he say that?
@ he said it on an ep of the Strong Town podcast semi-recently (I’m guessing within the past couple months)
as someone from los angeles, its been hilarious watching these people crying about not wanting to drive because of the congestion pricing, now having to walk or take public transit as if that wasnt the whole point of it all
OMG IVE NEVER BEEN THIS EARLY! Okay here’s an idea I’ve been dying to tell you about. Interstate rail focused around “big city” triangles. For example HSR connecting Atlanta to Charlotte to Charleston. Chicago to Indy to Detroit. New Orleans to Jackson to Mobile. Etc etc. would genuinely LOVE to hear your thoughts on this
The stress of catching COVID on a train or bus is absolutely outrageous considering what the risk of dying from COVID caught on a train vs the risk of dying in a car!
it actually makes a lot of sense that wfh leads to increased congestion, as wfh really means 'work not at the office', rather than work AT home
I'm definitely one of the people that shifted from taking the train five days a week for work, to barely taking the train at all when I shifted to WFH. Transit agencies seem really disinclined to try and improve service for weekend shopping, tourist-type trips, etc. If you get anything it's like a dogshit "saturday" service that runs hourly, if you're lucky, and definitely doesn't run, say, *after the bars close*. I wanna throttle my city's transit agency sometimes.
I really enjoyed this video, very informative and well-articulated.
I think "working from home" is probably the biggest reason why traffic is worse (especially during non peak times). When everyone had to actually go to their job they typically stay there throughout their shift so during the day less people are commuting, simply because they're stuck at work. Now more people "work from home" so they are free to move around and commute more. Most of my friends work from home since 2020 and nearly all of them go out for lunch, shopping, or even go to the beach during the day since they can easily get away with it. People taking advantage of not being watched at work shouldn't really be a surprise. I knew this was gonna happen since even before covid.
Also in relation to "working from home" I've heard reporting that more and more people have been moving out of the urban areas so they could buy bigger homes with more room. I believe in 2020, 2021, and 2022 the average home sale size increased by 1 or 2 bedrooms. People want space to set up offices or for their new children that they had during the pandemic. Thats just my guess.
I can attest to the state of traffic congestion in NY. I had an appointment with the Consulate General of Argentina in Manhattan on a Thursday last month (I wisely took a train to NY). The appointment required that I bring two witnesses, both have limited mobility, therefore, we needed to take a taxi. The distance from Penn Station to the consulate office is 1.6 miles. It took us just under 1 hour to get there!! Mind you, it was just before the holiday season but it was mind blowing. We sat in traffic going nowhere for what seemed an interminable amount of time. A brisk walk would’ve taken 20 minutes or so.
Regarding the added non-work commute trip for WFH. I'm surprised it's 1 a day but I do understand it. I can pop out at 1 to go grocery shopping or sneak in a gym sesh or do laundry during non-peak hours plus I have the added benefit of not having to do that on the weekend.
This is so true. MTA and PATH are only good on workdays 6am-10am and 4pm-8pm. At other times and especially during the weekend trains are so rare and crowded it's awful...
Sorry for you. The Queens Blvd line is none of those things.
WFH increasing traffic trips was not on my bingo card
Well, in southern california - my wife and I had to move out of the urban cities because we couldn't afford a home in the city. We had to move pretty far outside of the city, there's just nothing here. Whenever we want to do something we have to drive further. We both work remotely.
I would speculate that fear of crime/violence, which had an uptick could also be part of the reason why people aren't using mass transit. Some people also might worry they would be called racist for stating that so they might just claim fear of disease as their excuse.
Who here is actually from NYC and disagrees with congestion pricing? I see too many comments talking abt being from another city and relating it to NY
I'm pretty die hard one car family and would forgo car ownership if I could. But transit starved public transportation means that fees are set just barely below cost of car travel. And, when I'm going into the city with a family of four, it doesn't make sense at all. Its frustrating.
It doesn’t help that they won’t reactivate the existing subway line in Queens or do any other subway extension that would help elevate traffic congestion
I suspect one of the causes of additional car trips for remote workers is exactly the loss of opportunities during the commute to go out and pick up things close to transit, likely on the urban side of the commute. This leaves them needing to navigate their local neighborhood for the same needs, which as you stated not what transit has been optimized to do, especially in more remote communities, and even if local transit, exists miscellaneous needs are not conducive to developing a regular familiar and tested transit route.
What I've observed in my city (Ottawa, Canada - definitely NOT NYC) is that hybrid return to work has made people who might before have bought a monthly transit pass, rethink the value of that (even though I can't imagine how commuting by car, with parking and gas could really be competitive with a transit pass 🤷🏽♂️) and drive more often, because they're only going in 2 or 3 days a week.
That, and a botched launch of a new light-rail system in Fall 2019, followed by COVID in March 2020, had thrown the entire transit system into seemingly endless turmoil, such that people who might once have taken transit have given up on it and bought cars.
No data on this, just anecdotal stuff in the media, on social media (yes, even reddit) and observations of the degree of congestion.
I work from home during the week and drive professionally on the weekend. 15% of my mileage is commuting, 35% is billable, and 50% is discretionary. But this isn't really a change from pre-pandemic when I was in office other than slightly more commuting. My discretionary trips weren't instead of driving to work. They were in addition to. And I would love to take transit to the city instead of driving, but the late-night return transit is either unreliable (bus shuttles), infrequent (2hr headways), or non-existent.
@20:31 - Respect the deathblades. 😆
I thought a study found e-commerce delivery vehicles actually lowered VMT compared to people getting in cars and driving to stores? If delivery vehicles make multiple deliveries per mile, VMT per trip is lower. If I'm mistaken, is that because Amazon Prime members order throughout the week resulting in multiple deliveries per week instead of pre-internet doing one or two larger shopping trips per week? Manhattan and walkable neighborhoods have fewer car-based shopping trips, but most of American cities is car-based.
e-commerce delivery theoretically reduces VMT - IF the people who use it would instead have driven. However, note that lots of e-commerce platforms use their own vehicles now which means multiple vehicles delivering items to one address rather than one vehicle going out and purchasing multiple things. There is also a lot of e-commmerce delivery that isn't multi-stop (e.g. food delivery). So if you are ordering groceries delivered by your supermarket, a pizza delivered by DoorDash, a set of Xmas lights from Amazon, and a box of wine from a winery instead of spending the day out travelling around and picking all of these up yourself sequentially it probably isn't reducing VMT anymore.
Really interesting findings about WFH people taking more trips. I've been working from home since before it was cool (or enforced), but speaking entirely anecdotally I sort of concur. Except I don't drive, I take my bike to the grocery store or shopping centre for whatever it is we need. Instead of just one big grocery shop every week, I tend to buy stuff everyday. Often times I'll buy it during the week when before WFH I'd just wait until the weekend.
I ride my bike, so that doesn't add congestion or VMT, but if others doing similar drive, it starts to explain why the time period of "peak congestion" here is way longer - some people call it "all day peak" - than before COVID.
To back up your opinion on Uber/Lyft increasing congestion. When I visited my friend in NYC he used to only take transit and has no car. But when traveling in manhattan sometimes it was more convenient to take a an uber to certain places, especially during a night out drinking. I think if the subways were in better condition and felt safer, we would’ve used the transit options instead. He said he never used to take taxis before but he regularly uses uber or Lyft now, atleast a few times a week in the city.
My un-researched reddit comment is that transit agencies really cut back on service during the pandemic and became addicted to the savings so have been very slow to put service back to pre-pandemic levels so trips are taking longer and some people figure it would be just as fast to drive.
I definitely see work from home workers making up the commute with random other induced trips. A friend started driving random lunch or snack runs during the day, a couple times a week, pretty much just to get out of the house.