Guam’s Missile Defense Problem
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ก.พ. 2025
- Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery is a senior director at the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He directs CSC 2.0, which works to implement the recommendations of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. Montgomery is a principal member of the Cyber Initiatives Group.
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Once again US bureaucracy is a cluster fuck.
With today's missile technology...Guam is a sitting duck.
Those "choke hold" strategy has outlived their usefulness.
You didn't ask him if Aegis at sea would be adequate. (That's a destroyer picket around the Guam, and possibly why the Navy didn't see the point of Aegis Ashore on an island. )
Have you watched what has happened to the Russian warships assigned to picket duty outside Sevastopol? A suicide mission in today's drone world.
@@kenibnanak5554 You are making a few leaps here. 1., the US Navy compared to the Russian navy. (I don't agree with you that that comparison works.) 2. A US destroyer thousands of miles from the mainland of China is the same as 50 miles from the mainland of Ukraine. Your comment is not especially credible.
@@paulschrum4727 The anti missile and anti ship defenses of the Russian Navy and that of the US are as intentionally similar as the Russians can make them. They have their own equivalent of Phalanx which is probably just as capable. I admit their recoil operated Gatlings work differently than a chain gun's drive, but a stream of small cannon shells is a stream of small cannon shells.
One thing the Russians have learned is an anti-air defense system that can handle 4 or 5, maybe even 6 incoming missiles becomes completely overwhelmed when facing a flock of 70 or more aerial and nautical drones making coordinated attack at the same time. It is rational to suspect the same is true for any nation's war ships.
The recent downing by nautical drones of multiple Russian helicopters as they attempted to destroy the oncoming nautical drones hints at how difficult the task of defeating drones will grow to be as drone technology advances.
Is the lack of automatically closing watertight bulkhead doors in a Russian Destroyer a liability? Of course. Does it make any difference with 100 inbound high speed low radar profile, AI guided, drone ships approaching from multiple directions? No it didn't nor will it.
I won't even get into the newer smart submersible drones dropped in place by some 'fishing trawler' months ago that upon activation rise from the sea bottom and turn into fairly fast 'smart' torpedoes that home in on specific ships identified by a stored acoustic signature library.
So is the Russian experience today comparable to something the USN may face in the coming decade? Very much so I believe.
How many naval assets would the USN send to Guam while battle is raging off or on Taiwan or in South Korea and Japan? Would not greater emphasis be placed on protecting Pearl Harbor and the Panama Canal gates and the electrical facilities that operate them? Should San Diego be stripped bare so that Guam is secure? Is there any reason to believe Russia's Pacific Fleet would not begin operations to support China?
Regarding your 2nd line of reasoning, if the distance of Guam from China was in anyway relevant, then the Japanese invasion and conquering of Guam in December 1942 would have been equally impossible. Sure the defensive armaments are way more than Captain McMillin USN (Guam's military Governor until he surrendered) had at his disposal, but just like then, what he had when the invasion began is all he would get and no reinforcements came. As Admiral Montgomery points out, this will not be a war of maneuver. Everything Guam has will be fixed in place and mobility will only belong to the invader.
@@kenibnanak5554drones are significant but those mass drones are short range
@@Tripple_Threatt92 Your definition of 'short range' may be (is) totally different than mine. Ukraine's November 10, 2024 attack on Moscow with 90 drones was launched from over 537 miles away. Yes Russia shot down 50 en route and another 34 over Moscow, but 6 got through. The January 24, 2025 attack on the oil refinery in Ryazan, Russia with 130+ PD-2 and Lyutyi drones coming from 2 directions was launched from at least 350 miles (Kharkiv to Ryazan) or 740 miles launched from Lviv. Based on explosions at targets, at least 10 of the 130 got through and delivered their payloads. As technology improves and experience grows the drones will only get better, not worse.
I'm kind of confused, what is it that this rear Admiral would want on top of what we have? Guam has t h a a d, Advanced Patriots, Aegis systems, and a host of electronic warfare systems. Not to forget all the actual air systems we have including the Raptor Squadron that's there the b-1b's which can carry Harpoon anti-ship missiles to take out lower threats in the South China Sea second chain and third chain area. As it goes for the Korean Peninsula and missiles launched from North Korea South Korea also has Thad, Patriot systems, and Japan has thad, patriots, and Aegis. So what else is it that this rear Admiral thinks that they could have that would do any better as a matter of fact I don't think there's any other systems out there we've pretty much put every single anti-missile defense system whether short range medium range long range Hypersonic we put everything that we have in Guam South Korea and Japan
Free Guam.
We had a plan to fortify our hangars by 2008. Like so many other aspects of defense, this was neglected to focus on the GWOT.
Make it as costly as possible for the PRC to drench our bases in missile warheads.
Me too and for what in the end? We got dominated by backwards, sandal wearing, hillbillies living day-to-day just liken like their forefathers in the 8th century. All the while Guam was put way down on the to-do list.
I am confused. Aegis ashore was recently tested on Guam and intercepted a ballistic missile during a test. So there is Aegis ashore there as well as multiple other systems. A definite upgrade in the last few years. Where are the “holes” in the plan?
I am not trying to second guess his position regarding Guam's antimissle defenses however, since Guam is one of the most biggest and impotrant military installations America have in the IndioPacific Theater I belive the Military Brass have a good plan for defending Guam and its assets.👍👍
Talking out all your business.
Most likely any attack on Guam will come from a commercial ship from within 20 kilometers. A drone attack from within this range could not be stopped. In my opinion Guam makes a great place for an emergency landing strip but that’s about it. Aircraft carriers and purpose built drone carriers are still the standard for offensive operations .
Somebody get this guy on the phone with Elon!!
I hope we can still win?
already lose now.
1) Aegis on shore isn’t combat tested. We have no idea how effective it is against anything
2) they are based out of silos. Meaning its location is static and known. A saturation attack would certainly & easily quickly destroy it - just fire more missiles at it than there are interceptors.
And it's an American territory....USAF VET in Queensland Australia
Biden wasted so much money
Guam vanished from US control fairly quickly in WW2. In a modern invasion one should expect both AI controlled land, sea and air drones.as well as aerial bombardment and amphibious (human) assault. That would probably all be preceded by assassinations and various forms of sabotage against both infrastructure and defense installations. Being part of an easily isolated island chain Guam will probably be very difficult or impossible to reinforce or long defend against determined opposing forces. Indeed the very purpose of an attack on the island may be to lure American response ships within range of pre-positioned ambush Drones. Silently positioned months earlier, programmed to recognize and track the engine noises of specific war ships, they waited silently in powered down mode on the ocean floor for the authorization code to attack. Sadly most of the USN no longer receives small arms training, so they will just become POWs or be executed. The Guam Defense Force is (amazingly) even more poorly armed today than they were at the beginning of WW2 and will again be hunted down and executed (along with their families as was done last time). We should expect the forces capable of fighting in Guam to hold out for about a week or two at most before being overrun or slaughtered. It is very probable mainland US, Alaska and Hawaii will be having other problems also demanding attention that week and sadly Guam will probably be fairly low on the priority list.