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@@raybod1775 - Fortunately, they farm out the actual chip fabrication to TSMC. And hopefully they only have modest contractual obligations. Don't need a warehouse full of unsold GPUs, nor a multiyear contract with TSMC. When the bust happens, there will be a lot of surplus GPUs, maybe even sold at the Dollar Tree. Hopefully, Nvidia already got paid for those, before the bust. It will still drop their future sales, especially while that surplus is still in the supply chain.
@ The AI boom has placed consumers in competition with huge corporations for the same silicon. This alone wouldn’t be as bad, if Nvidia was not in monopolist position. Nvidia’s prime competitor, AMD has made repeated missteps in GPU development.
@@jwillsher80 AMD has 2 gpu divisions. the reality is that Nvidia used its mindshare and money to push for AI based interpolation as an "requisite" to run games. AMD Datacenters GPUS made them a lot of money.
@@jwillsher80nope monopolistic behavior from nvidia is the main component to AMD's lack of performance. Yes some development mistakes but in general no.
@ Please elaborate of the specific monopolistic behaviors. If you mentioned Intel, I would agree as they have tried to harm AMD in various ways. However, I am unaware of specific acts Nvidia has taken.
The biggest problem with these ai services is the same with Uber and Lyft. Nothing is special about any of them so it’s a race to the bottom for costs. So the subscription prices will problem have to be slashed
In what regard? Claude is best for coding and analysis, gpt is fairly prices and reasons quote well, gemini is cheap and offers huge context windows and best multimodal, they almost all serve a purpose and have a niche? if you think these tools have no value youre using them wrong
The existing AI services actually have a huge advantage if they existed prior to the release of ChatGPT. If you had scraped the internet from before then, the quality was much higher. Now it's flooded with bots that run off of ChatGPT. And if you train AI off of AI, the quality drops off.
First of all no one is going to be paying so many different AI subscriptions, people have only so much money to spend. It'll be far worse than streaming services.
@@devilsolution9781 It's not whether they have value, it's whether they're worth the cost in fees as well as time. There's still a fair amount of human oversight and fixing up needed if you want to use the current crop of AIs for real applications. I don't believe that today's fees are actually profitable. Doing inference with trillions of parameters isn't cheap, and neither is the hardware. Never mind that they still need to recoup the training costs along with the R&D budget. Like Uber and Lyft a decade ago, AI vendors are selling at a loss to entice more customers to try out the service.
There's a huge market rationalisation looming - with big opportunities for short sellers. The rate of technical improvement is already slowing down - all the low hanging fruit has been exploited, and many experts claim that further progress will become exponentially harder. And yet all the non-trivial code it generates is still riddled with bugs, and just yesterday a leading AI screwed up a simple temperature conversion for me by an order of magnitude. There's a limit to how much people will pay for a service that's wrong as much as it's right. Their projected revenues don't seem remotely attainable, unless something changes radically.
Bro all the ai companies have yet to find any use for their models, if you say coding well I got bad news almost all programmers unanimously say they spend more time fixing the code generated from LLMs than actual coding. Just watch the primegon basically said the same stuff they’re not replacing programmers any time soon and can’t even follow th context of a technical conversation. Sam Altman realistically comes off as a grifter with his begging for regulations, and declining quality of models since chat gpt 3.5
I'm gonna sell all my Nvidia stock the moment ChatGPT raises their prices to make a profit. No way in hell they will ever make a profit. Even if there is a productive use case for AI, it will be done locally on your device using specialized software, not online with some generic AI model.
Like you said at the start, it ultimately comes down to every-day use adoption. Businesses want to cut costs which will result in less employees and unemployed people won’t be able to afford to use it.
A recent robust experiment set up a community of AI bots with "social messaging". They immediately created delusions, lies, and bitterly opposed factions. My bias is that the Butlerian Jihad was due to "thinking machines" being so counterproductive. I already routinely thank humans for overcoming what the machines are not doing well. Today I had to go through 22 web pages and four texts to get the social insecurity message that there will be 2.5% raise for everybody this year.
@@samsonsoturian6013 but the bots aren't neutral. Ask them about any remotely controversial topic and AI takes the liberal position and downplays or outright ignores the conservative
It’s crazy now that I’m deep into local LLMs… all this is free 😂 in fact it’s more powerful than cloud once you kit it out. I’m glad they got cash monies to keep pushing state forward though. These local models would not exist without GPT starting a fire 🔥
Yup, I've been thinking a lot about AI company valuations the last week NVDA has been tanking in price. Prices are so juiced up, as if current revenues will sustain itself at these elevated levels for an uncertain return. Is more computing power going to meaningfully drive up revenue from what mag 7 has now? Maybe, maybe not, but it is priced as if it certainly will.
I been in this industry long enough to see the rise and fall of AMD Opteron, the fall of AMD, the dominance and fall of Intel, the return of AMD, and see the four largest datacenter customers operate more than half of worldwide server and all of them begin to phase out x86 for custom-ARM server processors. The same will happen with Nvidia, eventually the Trainium and Inferentia and TPU chips catch up to Nvidia, become 'good enough', and custom AI chips will replace Nvidia, just like how x86 is beginning to be phased out at the hyperscale level today. The hyperscale datacenters are too big for Nvidia to sustain this in the long term.
NVIDIA's skyrocketing market capitalization feels eerily similar to a runaway train. The locomotive is barreling full speed ahead, and in the distance, we can clearly see a collapsed bridge. Yet instead of slowing down, the train is accelerating, shoveling more coal into the engine. That coal, in this case, represents the venture capital being poured into the company, seemingly burning away without regard for the consequences. Meanwhile, the passengers-the investors-are visibly nervous, clutching their seats tightly. They can sense the impending disaster, but no one dares to jump off the train. The fear of missing out on the ride keeps everyone on board, even as the destination seems increasingly perilous. How much longer can this train keep racing before it inevitably derails?
I asked Grok how much power it takes to generate an image. It pull articles that stated ~0.3kW hours. at $0.25/kWhr that is $0.075. How much money is wasted on stupid AI images that are thrown away? I did 6 images and got bored.
Not only do you need massive amounts of generations to get anything worthwhile, but from personal online experience, overproduction is practically built into the culture in it of itself, with users finding the need to create regularly and post variations or "their unique ideas" literal garbage heap, dude.
The other issue that i have with this is the silicone needed to make these GPU's. As soon as TSMC finishes their contract with Nvidia it'll lower Nvidia's margin. Causing them to need more revenue to achieve the same net income.
The coke commercial response is what I see whenever something related to AI is shown. You get a real visceral reaction of negativity or positivity. There isn’t a between. It will be a hard sell for awhile especially when job losses mount due to AI.
you cant price free labor - its different universe. however i think the next breakthrough is critical thinking and as of now ai models have none. dont see it happening anytime soon.
AI isn't really doing much real labor now, text generated by it mostly reads like shit, AI voices sound fake, AI videos look fake and images look like slop that everyone instantly recognizes as AI generated. It's all slop basically. I don't see it progressing beyond that anytime soon, this would require a quantum leap, a revolution that would change everything, but LLMs are not that.
Funniest part of this is that the current "AI" boom has genuinely been having some revolutionary effects, just not in any of the dystopian ways the AI companies are pushing.
the only way for AI to start making real money is if it can obtain real world occupational licenses. If it is legal for AI to file a legal document or certify some engineering, they will have absolutely no problem with profitability.
I dont see the demand for GPU going down , they are in a race to improve AI and it's gonna cost a lot of GPUs. Im just surprised NVIDIA has so little competition
ok good video. i’m forced to mention that you left out a major puzzle piece….sovereign ai (government and military) which has not even been touched or factored into sales yet. that’s all. 💚🖤
Oh no. For one, NVidia is not part of the hype - it EARNS on the hype. For two, it has other viable businesses. TESLA is far more overvalued than NVidia - Tesla is niche manufacturer on established market - Nvidia is *THE MARKETS*.
you might also want to extrapolate the amount of electricity that would be required to power all this theoretical AI, I don't imagine those sums would add up either
I think in 2yrs, the Ai hype will run out of steam as the Nvidia latest earnings show and google, Microsoft will be left holding the bag and Mr Huang is already cashing in.
Whether or not this analogy is correct, yesterday I watched a program about scientists concerned about a population explosion back in the 60s or so. Thus, countries such as China came up with their one child policy. How wrong they were. Were there policies and theories back then that did become true ? Exponentional a I growth or not.
@@Poochie1 never selling (edit: not trying to be cute, but i have had to ignore people and comments like you by the thousands over 5 years on my road to literal multi millions, with peace and love ;) 💚🖤📈🇺🇸
You are so wrong on this one. Nvidia has 20 year PE average 32 and that's exactly where shares trade now with forward PE. It's not a penny more expensive than in past 20 years. PE 20 for Nvidia in times when toothpaste maker Colgate trade at PE 30. Funny idea. Nvidia has the highest operating profit of any company and you want them to trade at valuation 20% below the market and on par with non growing companies. ChatGPT is so superior to Google search as smartphone was superior to Nokia dumb phone. If Google don't come with something similar than Google will lost their business to Chatgpt. The same like Yahoo did. That's evolution.
It's make or break time for public perception of AI. Apple is bringing their apple intelligence products to market now. If people aren't impressed that's basically it. Personally, I expect people will see the built in OCR and automated rotscoping with generative fill and think that's good enough as most people have no idea that this has been possible for several years, but who knows how it will go. I wouldn't expect people to keep pumping money into nvidia if they're phone can do a suite of AI functions and none of them use it.
shovel salesman selling shovels for the gold rush, it would be funny if some othe company swept in and offered similar performance for half the price, the nvidia profit margin on cards is beyond unreasonable
One important point you forgot is the upcoming Chinese GPU companies. You need to look into them. They are catching up to NVIDIA very fast. Maybe two years behind.
I love your videos. In the case of AI it’s a little different when considering valuations. It’s like fabricating your own Infinity Stone - once AGI becomes a reality, it will literally be like tearing a hole in the fabric of reality. It’s probably the one thing I’ve ever encountered in life that really can’t be over-hyped. I’m talking about AGI. Now, if the companies in this vid stall out, then sure they are overvalued. But if they keep making progress toward AGI then I’m not sure any valuation can be too high.
The current AI models have the same chance of developing AGI as ML before it: zero. The models are not complex enough to think generally like humans or even animals do. LLMs are useful for language-related tasks, but cannot truly think.
@@TeamSprocket First of all AGI is not going to be some gay computer nerd program, it would have to be something synthetically biological in nature and some kind of humanoid robot to be really useful as we need it to do actual labor, not just write text or generate images. We don't really fully understand how biological (aka real) intelligence works. Current AI slop is nowhere even close to an intelligence of a cat. Thinks how smart and adaptable a cat is it knows what food it can eat, where to go, where to jump, and how to go back to a place, it can adapt to changing circumstances, we have nothing anywhere close to that and certainly an overpriced GPU isn't going to solve that.
interesting evaluation, but predicting the future is hard. Basing NVDA's revenue projections predominantly on the hyperscalers is possibly short sighted. For example, Jensen talks frequently about sovereign AI suggesting that eventually most, if not all, countries will build out their own AI data centers. When the internet first became mainstream in the 90s it was unclear what the eventual use cases would be, but it was clear that it would be a fundamental change. AI feels the same way to me. It's at least a 10 year journey tho and stock market valuations are rooted in future earnings.
AI is a cool toy/occasional tool but not something I'd be willing to pay monthly subscription forever, especially that there are open source AI models out there. It's not that hard to copy the models either.
All OPENAi needs to do is to create a realistic AI Girlfriend and let people pay 30$/month. Their financial struggle would evaporate in an instant. Trust me.
My company has 3000 licenses of gpt4 and the overall results are very promising in terms of time savings and quality of results. I believe the enterprise sector is where OpenAI will grow most as the use cases are much more usefull compared to the dya to day use
@@fix0the0spade automatic process generation, code assist, assistants, customer service, bi, quality managment, support tickets, text transformation, assisted design.. list goes on. I see a LOT of major ai projects just getting started for more "traditional" companies. Spending is there thru at least 25/26
AI is not your general invention to make money. Company who invent human level AI will dominate whole job market. May be its early but its have heavy price to be first
There is little doubt AI will be the future. Just like internet bubble, it is just overhyped too early by about 10-15 years. Let's just be honest, it's pretty obvious many jobs will become be increasingly autonomous, just like autonomous driving cars and planes are already a reality just not yet in a large scale, like the internet in the 90s. When all the cars on the street drives themselves, all the Amazon workers and car manufacturers are bunch of robots, think of the computing power it would require. More autonomy, less human labor, is as certain as the aging and shrinking labor force in most countries. Yes, AI is overhyped relative to what it can do, but let's not be so blind as to recognize which direction the human civilization is going.
Internet was more like electricity, AI is mostly just slop. Don't compare everything to previous inventions, we've been stagnating for the past 15 years or so, just look at CPUs how little they progress.
With its unwinding? Absolutely. But please, put all your money in NVDA stock or call options if you're so convinced. The ride down should be quick, and fun for you!
@ScottAllenFinance I'm not stupid. I'm long sp500. You, however can't comprehend the tech news that's been coming out, and therefore are behind. I can't help you, because you're too far behind.
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it's the new bitcoin
How is this a day old? Was the video private for a whole day?
@@wallstreetmillennial Groundnews is flooding every single channel I watch. It’s getting annoying.
You know it's a bubble when the existence of an industry drains others of capital
Do you mean you donˋt want my E-Book about MLM?
I work for an engineering based startup and seeing the groups getting money thrown at them while actually inventions take lots of effort is nuts
A gold rush where the only people making money are the ones selling picks and shovels.
Like Nvidia
@@raybod1775 - Fortunately, they farm out the actual chip fabrication to TSMC. And hopefully they only have modest contractual obligations. Don't need a warehouse full of unsold GPUs, nor a multiyear contract with TSMC. When the bust happens, there will be a lot of surplus GPUs, maybe even sold at the Dollar Tree. Hopefully, Nvidia already got paid for those, before the bust. It will still drop their future sales, especially while that surplus is still in the supply chain.
Palantir might be the gold
You mean they weren't absurd before?
I work in the “Ai” space creating compute servers, and yeah I’m nervous for when all goes poof
I bet you're making a killing tho
Dot com 2.0
@ Eh… I make decent money but I’m more concerned about job security than anything. I’m on a work visa so getting laid off is terrifying
Marry a citizen @@tansieten875
Can I join @@tansieten875
This is also negatively impacting gaming GPUs. It is like the crypto absurdity 2.0.
How?
@ The AI boom has placed consumers in competition with huge corporations for the same silicon. This alone wouldn’t be as bad, if Nvidia was not in monopolist position. Nvidia’s prime competitor, AMD has made repeated missteps in GPU development.
@@jwillsher80 AMD has 2 gpu divisions. the reality is that Nvidia used its mindshare and money to push for AI based interpolation as an "requisite" to run games. AMD Datacenters GPUS made them a lot of money.
@@jwillsher80nope monopolistic behavior from nvidia is the main component to AMD's lack of performance. Yes some development mistakes but in general no.
@ Please elaborate of the specific monopolistic behaviors. If you mentioned Intel, I would agree as they have tried to harm AMD in various ways. However, I am unaware of specific acts Nvidia has taken.
The biggest problem with these ai services is the same with Uber and Lyft. Nothing is special about any of them so it’s a race to the bottom for costs. So the subscription prices will problem have to be slashed
In what regard? Claude is best for coding and analysis, gpt is fairly prices and reasons quote well, gemini is cheap and offers huge context windows and best multimodal, they almost all serve a purpose and have a niche? if you think these tools have no value youre using them wrong
The existing AI services actually have a huge advantage if they existed prior to the release of ChatGPT. If you had scraped the internet from before then, the quality was much higher. Now it's flooded with bots that run off of ChatGPT. And if you train AI off of AI, the quality drops off.
First of all no one is going to be paying so many different AI subscriptions, people have only so much money to spend. It'll be far worse than streaming services.
@@devilsolution9781 It's not whether they have value, it's whether they're worth the cost in fees as well as time. There's still a fair amount of human oversight and fixing up needed if you want to use the current crop of AIs for real applications.
I don't believe that today's fees are actually profitable. Doing inference with trillions of parameters isn't cheap, and neither is the hardware. Never mind that they still need to recoup the training costs along with the R&D budget. Like Uber and Lyft a decade ago, AI vendors are selling at a loss to entice more customers to try out the service.
There's a huge market rationalisation looming - with big opportunities for short sellers. The rate of technical improvement is already slowing down - all the low hanging fruit has been exploited, and many experts claim that further progress will become exponentially harder. And yet all the non-trivial code it generates is still riddled with bugs, and just yesterday a leading AI screwed up a simple temperature conversion for me by an order of magnitude. There's a limit to how much people will pay for a service that's wrong as much as it's right. Their projected revenues don't seem remotely attainable, unless something changes radically.
let's go!
My favourite economic doom & gloom channel back at it
Nah that would be How Money Works. WSM has a very moderate way of looking at it.
incorrect
they make a good bear case to be fair. What is your bull case?
Probably thinking of Moon
@@The_Orgazoid I don't mind the channel, I like his analysis; he is just my main bear analysis guy
Bro all the ai companies have yet to find any use for their models, if you say coding well I got bad news almost all programmers unanimously say they spend more time fixing the code generated from LLMs than actual coding. Just watch the primegon basically said the same stuff they’re not replacing programmers any time soon and can’t even follow th context of a technical conversation. Sam Altman realistically comes off as a grifter with his begging for regulations, and declining quality of models since chat gpt 3.5
Sam Altman needs to be in jail really.
Not to mention, that those who can claim CODING takes most of their job, can count themselves lucky.
Uhhh I use ChatGPT every day.
AI is a good tool for coding, it can help with ideation and debugging. It does not replace actually software engineering skills
The code GPT spits out can be pretty bad. I like it as a learning resource, but the code has consistently been pretty bad in my experience.
Company just introduced AI Robot girlfriend that's indistinguishable from real life. Valuation goes parabolic.
Like all bubbles eventually it will burst, the trick is to guess how big it will get just before that burst
The market has been irrational on Tesla' stock price for years now, I'm sure reheated AI promises will be around for a long time.
Nvidia is gonna make 210 billion revenue in 2025. Its margin will be 75% and that is 157 billion. Take that number
This channel is so informative, among the best on TH-cam. Thank you!
I'm gonna sell all my Nvidia stock the moment ChatGPT raises their prices to make a profit. No way in hell they will ever make a profit. Even if there is a productive use case for AI, it will be done locally on your device using specialized software, not online with some generic AI model.
Like you said at the start, it ultimately comes down to every-day use adoption. Businesses want to cut costs which will result in less employees and unemployed people won’t be able to afford to use it.
People will desperately pay $80 a month for an AI that improves their job performance enough so they don't get fired.
@@skierpage if job need 100 normally but Ai efficiency makes it 10. now 90 unemployed.
@skierpage that assumes AI is threating them to begin with.
Maybe people will go back to constructing housing.
Adobe has 33 million paying subscribers for their robust tools. Good luck achieving that number without making the product far more compelling.
In ten years Adobe will be redundant as AI will be able to do all of that stuff
How would AI knows if its fake news or facts?
A recent robust experiment set up a community of AI bots with "social messaging".
They immediately created delusions, lies, and bitterly opposed factions.
My bias is that the Butlerian Jihad was due to "thinking machines" being so counterproductive.
I already routinely thank humans for overcoming what the machines are not doing well.
Today I had to go through 22 web pages and four texts to get the social insecurity message that there will be 2.5% raise for everybody this year.
The bot generally avoids taking a side when it finds conflicting info, and uses terms like "complex issue" because humans like neutral bots
@@samsonsoturian6013 but the bots aren't neutral. Ask them about any remotely controversial topic and AI takes the liberal position and downplays or outright ignores the conservative
@Noah_E liar.
They dont.
It’s crazy now that I’m deep into local LLMs… all this is free 😂 in fact it’s more powerful than cloud once you kit it out. I’m glad they got cash monies to keep pushing state forward though. These local models would not exist without GPT starting a fire 🔥
In 10 years people won't know the difference between a real or ai video
Yup, I've been thinking a lot about AI company valuations the last week NVDA has been tanking in price. Prices are so juiced up, as if current revenues will sustain itself at these elevated levels for an uncertain return. Is more computing power going to meaningfully drive up revenue from what mag 7 has now? Maybe, maybe not, but it is priced as if it certainly will.
Price is in line with past 20 years. It's now actually cheap looking at forward PE.
Stocks get overbought, then oversold
I been in this industry long enough to see the rise and fall of AMD Opteron, the fall of AMD, the dominance and fall of Intel, the return of AMD, and see the four largest datacenter customers operate more than half of worldwide server and all of them begin to phase out x86 for custom-ARM server processors. The same will happen with Nvidia, eventually the Trainium and Inferentia and TPU chips catch up to Nvidia, become 'good enough', and custom AI chips will replace Nvidia, just like how x86 is beginning to be phased out at the hyperscale level today. The hyperscale datacenters are too big for Nvidia to sustain this in the long term.
How many years from now… 2 or 20?
A more apt comparison is crypto mining, ASICs have replaced GPUs for mining, but crypto mining is basically useless.
Well thank you for picking ground news as the sponsor
Nvda has a growing software business both ai and non ai with considerable lower margins. Also, gaming buying back their shares will help.
NVIDIA's skyrocketing market capitalization feels eerily similar to a runaway train. The locomotive is barreling full speed ahead, and in the distance, we can clearly see a collapsed bridge. Yet instead of slowing down, the train is accelerating, shoveling more coal into the engine. That coal, in this case, represents the venture capital being poured into the company, seemingly burning away without regard for the consequences.
Meanwhile, the passengers-the investors-are visibly nervous, clutching their seats tightly. They can sense the impending disaster, but no one dares to jump off the train. The fear of missing out on the ride keeps everyone on board, even as the destination seems increasingly perilous.
How much longer can this train keep racing before it inevitably derails?
Subscribed
I asked Grok how much power it takes to generate an image. It pull articles that stated ~0.3kW hours. at $0.25/kWhr that is $0.075. How much money is wasted on stupid AI images that are thrown away? I did 6 images and got bored.
I read somewhere that one chat got response is 100x more expensive than a google search. This is a boondoggle
I read somewhere that Earth is flat and that prices of new technology are flat forever.
Not only do you need massive amounts of generations to get anything worthwhile, but from personal online experience, overproduction is practically built into the culture in it of itself, with users finding the need to create regularly and post variations or "their unique ideas" literal garbage heap, dude.
It's a gold rush and Nvidia is making shovels.
Man your voice have become a go to for good small break downs on subjects. Love them. Keep it up man
The other issue that i have with this is the silicone needed to make these GPU's. As soon as TSMC finishes their contract with Nvidia it'll lower Nvidia's margin. Causing them to need more revenue to achieve the same net income.
The coke commercial response is what I see whenever something related to AI is shown. You get a real visceral reaction of negativity or positivity. There isn’t a between. It will be a hard sell for awhile especially when job losses mount due to AI.
The Bazinga Bust can't come soon enough.
you cant price free labor - its different universe. however i think the next breakthrough is critical thinking and as of now ai models have none. dont see it happening anytime soon.
AI isn't really doing much real labor now, text generated by it mostly reads like shit, AI voices sound fake, AI videos look fake and images look like slop that everyone instantly recognizes as AI generated. It's all slop basically. I don't see it progressing beyond that anytime soon, this would require a quantum leap, a revolution that would change everything, but LLMs are not that.
Bubbles are always amusing to watch; they're much more amusing to watch when they explode.
Thou shalt not suffer the Abominable Intelligence to exist
The higher the climb, the lower the drop.
Altman is like Neumann from WeWork - talking up his book on the way down. Typical scammer.
I thought AI stood for All Indians.
Actually Indians
Allen Iverson
The 2025 strategy: primary asset holders induce hysteria in markets to siphon out remaining value before boarding their spaceships.
Funniest part of this is that the current "AI" boom has genuinely been having some revolutionary effects, just not in any of the dystopian ways the AI companies are pushing.
Does openai also generate revenue from their API service? Seems like this was left out of the video.
the only way for AI to start making real money is if it can obtain real world occupational licenses. If it is legal for AI to file a legal document or certify some engineering, they will have absolutely no problem with profitability.
Good video but no demand numbers from the big players. They are still buying. But with no projections this discussion is merely useful
I dont see the demand for GPU going down , they are in a race to improve AI and it's gonna cost a lot of GPUs. Im just surprised NVIDIA has so little competition
ok good video. i’m forced to mention that you left out a major puzzle piece….sovereign ai (government and military) which has not even been touched or factored into sales yet. that’s all. 💚🖤
also not forget civilian applications for vehicles like autonomous driving.
Because it doesn't exist.
Moral of the story: Stonks only go up
Oh no. For one, NVidia is not part of the hype - it EARNS on the hype. For two, it has other viable businesses. TESLA is far more overvalued than NVidia - Tesla is niche manufacturer on established market - Nvidia is *THE MARKETS*.
How do we plagiarize all the information from the Internet and keep all the advertising revenue for ourselves? Fake AI, yeah, that's the ticket!
AI is just a glorified search engine. It just returns search results couched in normal sentences.
No, it isn't. Search engines don't make up search results to sources that don't exist.
you might also want to extrapolate the amount of electricity that would be required to power all this theoretical AI, I don't imagine those sums would add up either
That’s why they are going nuclear
@@squirrel9760agreed
"In order for the web to be profitable, each member of society must pay 300eur in broadband fees, therefore it will crash"
I wonder if any of the current AI darlings will be the ones to ultimately make it. Definitely a lot will not.
the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
being early is the same as being wrong :(
I think in 2yrs, the Ai hype will run out of steam as the Nvidia latest earnings show and google, Microsoft will be left holding the bag and Mr Huang is already cashing in.
AI is not hype. There are limitations and those that can are working on ways to get AI past these limitations.
@ meant hype as in the stock market where money is being thrown at and OpenAI will regret not going public sooner.
Whether or not this analogy is correct, yesterday I watched a program about scientists concerned about a population explosion back in the 60s or so. Thus, countries such as China came up with their one child policy. How wrong they were. Were there policies and theories back then that did become true ? Exponentional a I growth or not.
i am a long time nvidia stan and concentrated shareholder and ai enthusiast so i’ll sit out any editorial commentary ;) 💚🖤📈🇺🇸
happy thanksgiving 🦃🍁
take your money and run.
@@Poochie1 never selling (edit: not trying to be cute, but i have had to ignore people and comments like you by the thousands over 5 years on my road to literal multi millions, with peace and love ;) 💚🖤📈🇺🇸
@@matt.stevick 😂
@@Poochie1 the main question is - where to? this bubble inflates everything else along with it
@@matt.stevick never forget the scam makes money when it goes up, but also when it goes down
You are so wrong on this one. Nvidia has 20 year PE average 32 and that's exactly where shares trade now with forward PE. It's not a penny more expensive than in past 20 years.
PE 20 for Nvidia in times when toothpaste maker Colgate trade at PE 30. Funny idea. Nvidia has the highest operating profit of any company and you want them to trade at valuation 20% below the market and on par with non growing companies.
ChatGPT is so superior to Google search as smartphone was superior to Nokia dumb phone. If Google don't come with something similar than Google will lost their business to Chatgpt. The same like Yahoo did. That's evolution.
It's make or break time for public perception of AI. Apple is bringing their apple intelligence products to market now. If people aren't impressed that's basically it.
Personally, I expect people will see the built in OCR and automated rotscoping with generative fill and think that's good enough as most people have no idea that this has been possible for several years, but who knows how it will go. I wouldn't expect people to keep pumping money into nvidia if they're phone can do a suite of AI functions and none of them use it.
Midjourney is profitable.
2025 = A.I. Agents = More GPUs
In a gold rush, be the one selling shovels
shovel salesman selling shovels for the gold rush, it would be funny if some othe company swept in and offered similar performance for half the price, the nvidia profit margin on cards is beyond unreasonable
Nvidia literally has no competition for most advanced processors.
overproducing chips for an AI demand that no one will actually use
AI is the biggest grift in history 😂😂😂
There's bigger
What about crypto?
One important point you forgot is the upcoming Chinese GPU companies. You need to look into them. They are catching up to NVIDIA very fast. Maybe two years behind.
They’ll likely stay 2 years behind.
They are atleast 4-5 years behind just look at what they are making. No acces to euv doesnt help either, great progress yes but 2 years?
Bubble.
How bad is the AI winter gonna be? Lol
Next one Palantir
Is there anything that's not in a historical bubble??
What is the pop gonna look like???
How long has computer boom and internet boom gone on? Why would AI be any different?
Look at Uber and their years of unprofitability
I love your videos. In the case of AI it’s a little different when considering valuations. It’s like fabricating your own Infinity Stone - once AGI becomes a reality, it will literally be like tearing a hole in the fabric of reality. It’s probably the one thing I’ve ever encountered in life that really can’t be over-hyped. I’m talking about AGI. Now, if the companies in this vid stall out, then sure they are overvalued. But if they keep making progress toward AGI then I’m not sure any valuation can be too high.
The current AI models have the same chance of developing AGI as ML before it: zero. The models are not complex enough to think generally like humans or even animals do. LLMs are useful for language-related tasks, but cannot truly think.
@@TeamSprocket Go try craft a problem that a random human can solve but not sonnet or o1. You'll be surprised it's much easier the other way round
@@TeamSprocket First of all AGI is not going to be some gay computer nerd program, it would have to be something synthetically biological in nature and some kind of humanoid robot to be really useful as we need it to do actual labor, not just write text or generate images. We don't really fully understand how biological (aka real) intelligence works. Current AI slop is nowhere even close to an intelligence of a cat. Thinks how smart and adaptable a cat is it knows what food it can eat, where to go, where to jump, and how to go back to a place, it can adapt to changing circumstances, we have nothing anywhere close to that and certainly an overpriced GPU isn't going to solve that.
interesting evaluation, but predicting the future is hard. Basing NVDA's revenue projections predominantly on the hyperscalers is possibly short sighted. For example, Jensen talks frequently about sovereign AI suggesting that eventually most, if not all, countries will build out their own AI data centers. When the internet first became mainstream in the 90s it was unclear what the eventual use cases would be, but it was clear that it would be a fundamental change. AI feels the same way to me. It's at least a 10 year journey tho and stock market valuations are rooted in future earnings.
I agree, this is a new form of infrastructure if we think of it like that.
So far ai generated designs are so bad they're unusable. Many companies are quietly wondering what the hell they just paid for.. there's no roi.
Where are the Spacs?
It's been 2 years, not 3
I feel the evaluation system is a scam. It can just be whatever they say it is to get the benefits that come with such.
Yeah definitely seems a bubble will pop within a year BUT perhaps perhaps Nvidia will have triple the revenue of 2024 in 2030!?
02:41 ad skip
AI is a cool toy/occasional tool but not something I'd be willing to pay monthly subscription forever, especially that there are open source AI models out there. It's not that hard to copy the models either.
Bubble ahead 😮
Yes, 20 to 40 years from now AI will crash.
@raybod1775 more like 3 4
Make the same video next year. Nvidia will be 5 billion and openai will be 600 billion
Bagholder detected
@@samsonsoturian6013 Forward PE of
First time?
Till this day, I can't figure out who or what is buying these stocks at these prices.
All OPENAi needs to do is to create a realistic AI Girlfriend and let people pay 30$/month. Their financial struggle would evaporate in an instant. Trust me.
Not everyone is a weirdo
I need that real bot that I can fuck have it shut up later, not a nagging bitch wife simulator.
Can't they just price in the crash and juice my puts? Or price in the recovery so we can skip the next bear market if i have calls
They'd have to pay me to get me to use AI. It sucks.
man forgets ai is already insanely useful
Anduril Industries A.I sleeping giant.
Waiting for IPO.
WSM just sounds like another angry guy who is out of the stockmarket 😂
My company has 3000 licenses of gpt4 and the overall results are very promising in terms of time savings and quality of results. I believe the enterprise sector is where OpenAI will grow most as the use cases are much more usefull compared to the dya to day use
So what are you doing with those 3000 licenses and how do they save time?
@@fix0the0spade automatic process generation, code assist, assistants, customer service, bi, quality managment, support tickets, text transformation, assisted design.. list goes on. I see a LOT of major ai projects just getting started for more "traditional" companies. Spending is there thru at least 25/26
3 years!?
Slop mentioned 11:04
0:08 It’s been 2 years since ChatGPT 3 kicked things off in late 2022
AI is not your general invention to make money.
Company who invent human level AI will dominate whole job market.
May be its early but its have heavy price to be first
There is little doubt AI will be the future. Just like internet bubble, it is just overhyped too early by about 10-15 years. Let's just be honest, it's pretty obvious many jobs will become be increasingly autonomous, just like autonomous driving cars and planes are already a reality just not yet in a large scale, like the internet in the 90s. When all the cars on the street drives themselves, all the Amazon workers and car manufacturers are bunch of robots, think of the computing power it would require. More autonomy, less human labor, is as certain as the aging and shrinking labor force in most countries. Yes, AI is overhyped relative to what it can do, but let's not be so blind as to recognize which direction the human civilization is going.
I wouldn't be so sure to say 10-15 years. We went from a dumb high-schooler to winning math olympiads in 2 years with language models
Internet was more like electricity, AI is mostly just slop. Don't compare everything to previous inventions, we've been stagnating for the past 15 years or so, just look at CPUs how little they progress.
Gemini is the most useless AI model I tried, and Monica is the most awesome AI collection suite and agent I've tried. Maybe someone can use this info.
12:50 Not defending their business prospects, but ignoring API revenue is weird.
Nvidia is just getting started
With its unwinding? Absolutely. But please, put all your money in NVDA stock or call options if you're so convinced. The ride down should be quick, and fun for you!
@ScottAllenFinance I'm not stupid. I'm long sp500. You, however can't comprehend the tech news that's been coming out, and therefore are behind. I can't help you, because you're too far behind.
Bots activity is insane in the comment section here