Phil's Reaction: The Big Short | Phil Town
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ค. 2024
- The Big Short is one of my favorite movies. Believe it or not, investors these days can learn a lot from it. Today I react to a classic scene, where Mark Baum realizes the housing bubble is in fact real, and why it's not too far off from what we're experiencing in today's market. bit.ly/3c04P7D
Learn how to invest with confidence and navigate the market in any condition with my Ultimate Stock Market Crash Survival Guide. Click the link above to download!
_____________
Looking to master investing? Attend one of my 3-Day Transformational Investing Workshops, virtually! Reserve your seat here: bit.ly/r1-virtual-workshop
_____________
I'm now on Clubhouse! Give me a follow: @philtown - see you there!
_____________
Timestamps
00:00 - Intro
00:34 - Housing bubble overview
03:12 - Clip #1
07:53 - Phil’s reaction
08:50 - Redlining
10:38 - The Big Short
13:14 - Question
_____________
Learn more:
Subscribe to my channel for free stuff, tips and more!
TH-cam: budurl.com/kacp
Facebook: / rule1investing
Instagram: / ruleoneinvesting
Twitter: / rule1_investing
Pinterest: / rule1investing
LinkedIn: / rule-1-investing
Blog: bit.ly/1YdqVXI
Podcast: bit.ly/1KYuWb4
Buy my bestselling book Rule #1: amzn.to/2R9Gofj
Shopping through my amazon link is one of the best ways to support my TH-cam channel!
stock market crash, recession, market crash, stock market basics, housing bubble, housing market bubble, market bubble
Are there any other movies you'd like to see me cover in future videos? Leave a comment below! Learn how to invest with confidence and navigate the market in any condition with my Stock Market Crash Survival Guide: bit.ly/3c04P7D
Beware of spammers in the comments below! The link above is the only link I'll share with you.
@Phil Town's Rule #1 Investing Do a reaction to the film Margin Call. Also, love your channel.
Margin Call!
Boiler room
@@IDWIE dito
You are our Old wise uncle who wants to teach us, we millennial. Thanks uncle Phill. Worth following you and watching your content to learn all these years.
Now next video I would like to you to react is Movie called "Margin call".
The expression on Mark Baums face throughout the movie as he hears directly from the people involved about whats going on is exactly the expression everyone who knows about this should have. You can't help but not be totally stunned by what the people are revealiing along the way. Its mind numbing horror.
There is another movie called "Margin Call". It isn't as exciting as The Big Short, but is good enough.
Much better movie than this one in my view.
Superb movie
@@elvero666 It's not better, it's different. TBS is from an Investor POV, Magin Call is from the Bank's POV.
Thanks for the tip. :)
@@russelllapua4904 yep, margin call is most probably Goldman
The best finance movie I have ever watched!
It's one of my favorites. 🙌🏼
Thank you for explaining this. I was too young to know about how this worked when this happened, but I remember my parents mentioning how hard it once was for them to get loans for home ownership. It sounds like the idea/intention behind trying to get people loans inside of the red lined areas was possibly noble, but the execution sounds like a total cluster that was ripe for exploitation. It's hard to imagine that the government was able to sleep walk into something like that. Wow. 🤯
I ALWAYS LOVE THIS FORMAT! I love it when experts provide their experienced angle on pop-culture items (Legal Eagle, Doctor Mike, Vanity Fair, Wired etc.). Makes their insights accessible to more people,...and gives a reasonable segue to their services,...superb! Keep 'em coming!
I'd really rename the video to something like "Professional investor reacts to..." or "Fund manager reacts to...." or something like this. We all love Phil and Danielle, but the rest of the world doesn't know them,...but they know what an Investor or Fund manager is. They may even have some preconceived notions about them,...which is where this format broadens their horizon!
All the best! Looking forward to the 19th!
Definitely Uncle Phil! I think there's an "everything bubble" right now. I'm sitting on the sidelines ready to back up the truck when good businesses go on a huge sale!
Love this movie! To me, this movie showed the range of Steve Carell’s acting. It was also good to see Jeremy Strong in the HBO series after the fact. A favorite movie for sure!
Thanks again for another great video Phil, love the Big Short, its a great movie. I also enjoy the TV series Billions. Michael Burry is now warning about inflation, a recent quote from Burry, "People say I didn't warn last time. I did, but no one listened. So I warn this time. And still, no one listens.", With the way the Fed is printing money and a $1.9 Trillion stimulus be approved I definitely foresee inflation in our future. I do not think the current housing market is in a bubble yet, for the following reason. The market valuation varies throughout the country with pockets of really big growth. millennials are starting families and aggressively entering the housing market, the technology over the past 10 years has added to the speed of closing on a home and interest rates have been at historical lows, yet are on the rise due to the economy opening. In the 90's we had double digit inflation and I definitely believe we will see inflation rise over the next 10 years. In the right area of the country with 6 - 12 percent growth in valuation of homes now is a good time to lock in on a low interest 15-30 year mortgage to diversify against inflation. If you have a fixed rate, it will become easier to make your house payment as long as wages keep pace with inflation which they usually do. Cathie Wood's has also warned of a reset in the stock market valuation, so with the your savings valuation diminishes and the stock market resets due to inflation now is a great time to lock in on low interest rates even if in the future the valuation of your home declines. I believe its currently one to the best strategies for diversification to hedge against inflation.
Would love to hear your thoughts regarding these suggestions.
Thanks for commenting, I will refer you to my trade analyst and accountant to make good income. Go more on digital assets
Thank you for making it so simple. Looking at the current market situation, seems like the bubble is bursting ... good to have rule 1 as a guide 😉
“I used to be a bar tender, now I own a boat” 🤣 A boat is probably one of worst liabilities you can buy! Fuel + maintenance !!! 🤣
Docking fees.
"Who's Warren Buffett?" And I just realized "I might be crazy" is playing in the background. Genius movie making!
If it flies, floats, or fornicates.....you'll have problems with it
B.O.A.T. = Bust Out Another Thousand
Love it!... The Company Men is an underrated Financial movie... not so much revolving around technicals, though.
Looking forward to your course this month, Phil!
Also 'The Flaw'... probably my favorite documentary on the financial crisis of 2008. A must-see for sure!
Thank you for your comments Phil, these are some movies that you might not have seen. The Wolf of Wall Street, Margin Call the second Wall Street movie that was all about subprime mortgage. And another one called The Boiler Room. I seen The Big Short I might have to watch it again tonight period with the new information you provided.
I have tried my best NOT to be a market timer however I can't justify my 60/40 stock/bond portfolio anymore. In years past I would go heavy on my bond allocation but since bonds are nowhere to be, I'm now at 25/15/60. 60 in cash. I don't have any FOMO. I've seen this story before in 1987, 2000, 2008. There will be a serious correction. I will then shift the 60% back into equities. It's the best way for me to sleep at night.
"Inside job", which looks at the same 2007-2008 crash but from a academia/governmental/Federal reserve/regulatory view. For those that remember the past make better decisions because history may not repeat but as Twain says, it does rhyme!
Thank you Phil Town !!!
Thank you for your reaction and important history lesson!
Thanks for the video. I enjoyed it.
Very well done.
Such a great movie! People should also read the prequel, Liar's Poker (also by Michael Lewis) written in the 80's about the creation of the mortgage bond. The Big Short is great, but my favorite will always be Trading Places.
Enron: Smartest guys in the room. China Hustle (reverse mergers). Inside Job. Would really like to see your thoughts on the China Hustle and what is going on with all these Chinese EV stocks.
Great video! I enjoy your awesome content.
It and Margin Call are two of my favorite. Oh, story I owe you coming soon
We were staying at a house in Florida(many years ago) for a family vacation. I picked up this book from their library and once I started , I couldn't put it down. It was call "Confidence Game" , it detailed Bill Ackman and his struggle with sub-prime/bonds and the bond rating entity's( Moody's) . He too made a few bucks using CDS trades. Can't vouch for the accuracy of the content, but nonetheless it was an interesting educational read.
The way you talked about Goldman Sachs, it sounds like they were the bank in 'Margin Call'.
Well said Phil. Kinda sounds like the market where I live.
the big short is a masterpiece from beginning to end, i also recommend the book. and i cant wait for the market crash to finally happen so i can start buying stocks once again, as it is now, it is way too difficult to find good value with lots of potential because everything is too expensive.
Completely agree.
Parts of the US are definitely in a housing bubble right now. Some people are buying houses sight unseen.
So glad you are posting here ! Easier to watch than fb
Do you need help TRADING on Forex
You should react to the CDO Manager scene. It's interesting because the RL person the character is based on ultimately tried to sue the author and the film studio for making him seem evil for selling what was, at the time, a legitimate product.
Inside Job, Documentary, 2010 - Narrated by Matt Damon and features Peter Gabriel's song "Bigtime".
Are we in the same situation with the stock market? Fed buy everything, Robinhood let anyone use margin to buy options/ stocks that they don’t have money to buy without the ability to pay back.
Yep we’re in a bubble right now!
You said these lending practices were occurring in 2007-2008. Based on firsthand experience, these practices were already occurring as soon in 2003 and were in full swing in 2004.
Both the stock and housing markets will drop, then we buy. Invested 1/3 last March at the low, waiting to invest the other 2/3.
Thanks for the video! Can you advise an aspiring youtuber, how can you insert movie clips without infringing the copyright?
Lessons I took from The Big Short (the book is even better): "Experts" can be some of the worst people to listen to (and the most ignorant) and due diligence, due diligence, due diligence. Only Burry and his team were taking the time to dig into the A tranches and realize that the loans supporting them were grade A trash and that the market was a house of cards waiting to collapse.
The boiler room is a great stock market movie
I'll probably have a master's in finance one day because of you
No one mentions the Fanny Mae etc connection. Your video is great.
I'm a first time buyer in the UK and the way that estate agents have shifted their attitudute towards first time buyers is unbelievable. You literally get asked before they even tell you whether a house is available for viewing or not: "What's your position...Are you cash buyers....and are you willing to up the offer by 10%?". That's before they even show you the house.
How about the movie Margin Call
Phil, don't miss podcast "Spectacular Failures" - Episode called "Subprime times at Countrywide Financial". I guarantee you'll love this one.
Phil do a video for the movie Margin Call
Hello Phil!
Are you going publicly to let us know if you get out of the market just like you did back in 2005-2007?
I see a crash in the stock and housing market in 3 -6 months. I really feel that many small to medium size businesses are going to fall and never come back. The only thing that will be left is the very large companies like Amazon, Facebook and Etc. As per the housing crash, many landlords are not getting paid by their tenants and as soon as they can evict them will get rid of them or sell the apartment all together to avoid the no payments and hassles. This and the fact that people are buying extraordinary high priced homes signals to me a housing market crash.
Lmao
Great podcast Mr. Town! O don't think we are there yet...maybe that will happen after the "Great Reopening" when everybody is on euphoria.
Could happen at any moment. Another $1.9T hits the streets soon. Dalio may think cash is trash, but smart money is on the sidelines just waiting.
@@billl1127 Smart Money is on the sidelines waiting to go in the market, in my perspective...
You look like a combination of Picard and Saul, I knew I recognized your face from somewhere.
Thanks Phil !..."Hanging Out"
Thanks for commenting, I will refer you to my trade analyst and accountant to make good income. Go more on digital assets.
@AndrewGordon.
Phil, after reading your book and watching this video, for some reason, I feel like I would benefit from a nice long review of " The wolf of wall street " from you.
All you need is a mentor I'll highly recommend you to one
Stock market maybe but real estate now is an inventory crises not a mortgage crises
please watch Margin Call
I have watched this movie a few times recently. Then reading more about that EVENT.
I think we're continually pumping a bubble right now. There's almost denying that except from the robinhood crowd crying about the marketing going down on their crap stocks.
Anyways, people are putting more and more in. I heard on the radio today that something like 3 billion dollars is sitting on the sidelines still. So, if another stimulus passes im really.concerned with how much bigger we can make this with people buying every dip (like the last few weeks). So we're not correcting enough in the dips.
Most of the tech run up from 2020 is getting hit right now. What is it close to 20% down? Anyways still mostly over inflated from 2020 still. So we need some more correction still. As people buy back in they're just pushing the due date back.
Anyways, the housing market is going to be in for a rude awakening if inflation truly does settle in. Interest rates can go up I guess...but millennial we're already hesitant to buy so....whos going to buy out the boomers? Reits on residential could do good? Maybe?
I'm rambling now..but yes a bubble exists. Be real careful on investments at the moment is my thought process. Houses may be left unsold or selling for less as less people want to buy and others want to rent and wait it out. Other companies are inflated...lots to lose here...
I think maybe AG will be okay?
Good luck all!!!!!
Boiler Room is a good one
Markets cannot be that far from crashing. We are in the greed cycle as per Howard Marks. Lucky I live in an awesome world and have my family, friends and health.
Just for giggles, you might want to look at Retirement Plans, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, June 13, 2016... Hey it's pretty funny.
Burry went to Vanderbilt medical school. Go Dores!
I have been trying to explain to the new people on Reddit, who are toting the "Diamond hands" philosophy, that it's their money the others are taking. The longer the suckers hold, the more time the others can cash out at stupid high prices.
How about the movie “Equity”? It’s about IPOs
you have to do " Margin call" next that's another classic
I loved the Big Short. Housing prices are way too high, and interest rates are way too low, so....
The wolf of Wallstreet nails the concept of knowing what your investing in, and not to take advice solely on friends colleges and neighbors.
Too much swearing in that film. I don't want to watch a film with the F word every few minutes and bawdy sexual antics. Had to switch it off.
i felt the panic
We Elliott Wave people are sitting around waiting too.
Its not mark baum..his name is steve eisman
What other financial movies do you like?
Big Short is so good that even my wife thought it was a funny and good movie
Can you do a reaction video on an episode from Billions.
raise the interest rates already.
Margin Call
“I was a bar tender, now I own a boat” 🤣 A boat is probably one the worst liabilities you can purchase !!! 🤣
B.O.A.T - Break Out Another Thousand lol
how many years have you sat on the sidelines with 30% cash and missed the ride up in 2020?
Do you trade on forex
Unintended consequences are the government’s specialty.
this movie makes me watch basic economics video for 40 minutes
How about Money never sleeps
Given the insane amount of monopoly money pretty much everyone is printing, at this point I'll take gold.
And instead of fixing it then, this generation has to deal with this crap.
Moneyball
Good video, but its hard to follow as the movie is playing and you're talking...maybe pause it next time as you talk.
The Wolf of Wall Street is one of my favorites. Good lessons in there
Real estate bubble? No. Ppl have a lot more equity and loan underwriting is tougher
Agreed, but no inventory and nearly impossible for a first time home buyer to buy a house (in much of the country)
Wolf of wall street
Another classic.
Still waiting for commercial real estate bubble to collapse from the remote work and AI revolution that just showed up out of no where... everyone being rushed back to work so the stock portfolios closely tied in with commercial real estate dont drop lol
I've watched the Big Short about 4 times. Great film, but unless you understand how these guys operate and the language associated with it, then it's rather difficult to follow.
Tough subject, but the filmmakers did their absolute best to make it at least a little bit easier to understand. The Margot Robbie and Anthony Bourdein cameos were great.
Obviously the market switch sectors now, from EVs to ….. we don’t know, what do you think is the next sector will be? could be oil and gas hehehe - I really hope so.
The thing about these reddit traders is that they've done enough research to know that there's nakedshorting, darkpools reverse repo all time highs, commodities tanking and the SLR that expired in april are all leading to the massive financial crash that will send these highly shorted stock insanely high
Good explanation of the movie tho thanks for an easy way to understand what was going on
Arbitrage is a great film, about a hedge fund manager who made a bad investment trying to save his reputation and clients money.
We are nowhere near the late 90s insanity.
Q: so.. can you make a video on why the housing market was a ponzu scheme?
No we are not, remove Tesla’s P/E then give me the S&P 500 P/E. and beside they printed mooooooooorrrreeee money. Inflation first then bubble. I will sell Happiness.
whose this we? my family didnt survive and neither did anyone below middle class.
You shouldn't talk over the clip. Pause it to explain, then play again.
hahaha just government funded? i guess goldman and lehman did nothing wrong. we haven't even seen the effects of Lehman Brother's FTDs that the taxpayer is going to have to pay
Saying the GameStop investors know NOTHING is complete absolute horseshit Phil. I know more about GameStop than my own sister.
Look up the GME home base,
r/superstonk to see how well read we are. I dare you to find any misinformation to prove your point, and do a review on it in detail. Back up your opinion. Don’t just throw insults.
Thank you Phil Town !!!
Thanks for watching.
“I used to be a bar tender, now I own a boat” 🤣 A boat is probably one of worst liabilities you can buy! Fuel + maintenance !!! 🤣
Boat. A hole into which the owner throws money. 😀 🇨🇦
@@ronbatt756 B O A T - Bust out another thousand.