Hi! Im a Mphil student at University of Oslo, writing my thesis on extended detterence and nuclear weapons. Thank you for highlighting the topic Sam, and especiallythe researchers. Really appreachiate it.
I liked the analogy of living in a house wired with dynamite in the walls. It's makes even more sense when you think that with nuclear weapons, nobody is trying/wanting to use them (for say, a first strike) but there are just so many ways it can go wrong, like we've seen with the false positives where they got very close to erroneously launching them because of misunderstandings, or bad code/systems etc. Just like if there is dynamite in your walls, you're not actively trying to set it off but there could very easily be an accident that would set it off.
Thank you Sam for bringing this complex and important topics into meaningful and insightful discussion . Cheers from Warsaw /Poland - city that has been many times mentioned by Russia and Belarus dictators as being the target for potential nuclear weapon during conflict in Ukraine.
Hi Sam - a brilliant and incisive discussion. As an MA graduate in IR and also Strategic Studies (two degrees) I am so impressed with this discussion. I cannot emphasise enough the existential threat these weapons pose. I am not a 'bleeding heart' liberal either - I'm actually what they call a realist in IR, considered a right wing doctrine (though I prefer to refer to myself as 'pragmatic'). As a WMD specialist, however, I do sometimes despair at the lack of attention this subject can garner, so well done as always!
I was a fan of him for so long, and still want to be, but he seems to operate in bad faith when it comes to covid. He fails to correctly represent the arguments from the other side and won't engage in conversation with them either. It's very unlike the Sam I initially became a fan of. His take on Trump is pretty extreme as well. I am not a Trump fan but man people are not exaggerating when they say Sam has TDS.
@@someguy3429 What you're saying actually makes sense to me, maybe Bret was irresponsible in some ways, but I'm not against Bret just because I'm a fan of Sam. I can see where you're coming from with Trump too, but still I'm a little more with Sam on this one, the push to abolish term limits is pretty much a bright line imo.
From what I've understood about his views on COVID, its that taking the vaccine when it was first introduced was rational. And those criticising the vaccine had no grounds to do so, unless they were experts in virology.
As a nuclear engineer and someone who has played, “Let’s blow up the planet today”, over a hundred times, I’m sensitive to radiation’s secondary effect 6:45 , and the implications of bilateral nuclear war! That said, we need to realize that nuclear weapons are not going away, and the last thing we need to do is create unwarranted fear in a semiliterate society and planet. Most people don’t understand how nuclear weapons work, and the intricacies of secondary radiation effects are simply hazards to be avoided at all costs! This mindset is being used to extort military and political concessions by Putin today! He won’t be the last!!! My point here is that we (America) opened the nuclear option box, and our scientists, specifically Oppenheimer, gave the plans to Russia. We have the responsibility to ensure that global nuclear war is never a reality, and that comes from a strong nuclear deterrent and a resolve that says, “any place, anytime”!!! These “avoidance of reality”policy positions of our civil and illiterate polite society is the greatest threat we face as a nation, not external adversaries! Remember the job is to convince Russian, Chinese, Iranian generals that regardless of what he’s been told, if he pushes the button, he dies, his family dies, everyone they know dies too. It’s not about sanity, it’s about insanity and convincing the other side that we’re ready to go, anywhere, at any time! For what it’s worth?
Thanks for the work you are doing! The world needs to hear these conversations and more importantly take them to heart. Wish there was an easy solution to this monster.
Amazing Grace and Chuck is a movie in my opinion everyone should watch. Imagine the concept of this film happening for real in our social media age. Children and celebrities could become more powerful then any special interest group or government. “Maybe one day this story will be true”
Another must-see movie is By Dawn's Early Light from 1990 which is available to watch on TH-cam for free. To me the scenario of how nuclear war happened felt so realistic and logical in every detail. It scared me.
Most alternative vegan community podcasters have inflicted their opinion, who hail from the Equatorial regions. These various "thinkers" of the post pandemic theory marginalize Hollywood and regurgitate already known sequences. They build straw men out of the alt right, conquer and divide, and such films are important but nearly irrelevant in rational cultural discourse.
@@hamcheeselettucemayosandwichwhat we don't respect is his unwillingness to represent the other side's arguments correctly, and his refusal to engage in any actual discussion or debate about it. Sam used to be somebody to look up to when it came to navigating difficult conversations, regardless of whether we agree or not, but now he is straight up operating in bad faith. I think Sam's newer fans just don't get it.
I disagree with Carl's calling the nuclear bombings and the firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo "atrocities". "Atrocities" are generally referring to unjustified acts. Without knowing what would have happened without these "atrocities", how can he know that they were unjustified? To NOT do those bombings may have been an atrocity, resulting in even greater harm...we will never know for certain.
34:40 - Read Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears." The climax of the story will have you throwing the book across the room in disgust because of how plausible the whole scenario really is. Jack Ryan actually has a communication link with the Soviet leader who is trying to negotiate with the President of the United States in order to avert the catastrophe. As it gets closer and closer to happening, with Jack Ryan trying to get the two leaders to talk with one another (the American Prez is being foolishly selfish), Ryan actually throws up in a waste can out of anxiety and stress. I know it's fiction, but Clancy writes it so well that he consults with the Pentagon on occasion.
@@hamcheeselettucemayosandwich I saw it in IMAX, and while it was better, I think the difference was exaggerated. I loved the movie though, it was fantastic in my opinion.
Saw it yesterday, the audio is in your face and distracting at times, so being focused helps alot. Also i didn't realize how promiscuous alot of these scientists are 😂
My grandfather a captain in the Navy was a part of the Nuce program, died a horrible death from cancer at 63. His brother 97, and sister 101. We are a very sick society WORLD WIDE.
Based on the title I thought this was going to be about Daniel Ellsberg's 2017 book of the same title. But the topics are essentially the same. It's sort of amazing that there hasn't been an accidental nuclear exchange so far. Luck I guess.
Yes its a shame Sam never got to interview Daniel Ellsberg as there's a massive mistake in this interview. at 28 minutes The Americans *DID NOT* depth charged the Russian submarines during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In an interview with theAnalysisNews (which is available here on YT) Daniel Ellsberg *who was actually there* at the time related what happened. The American's were actually trying to *SIGNAL* the Russian submarines by throwing hand grenades into the water. That wasn't working because they'd blow up before they went deep enough. So they started wrapping the hand grenades in toilet paper. They'd throw the hand grenades into the water which would then sink before the toilet paper fell away. What the American's didn't know was that this freaked out the Russian because at depth the hand grenades had a concussive effect that made the Russians feel like they were being attacked. What saved the world was the oddity that Vasily Arkhipov was on the particular submarine that thought it was under attack. Normally it only takes 2 people (the commander & political officer) to use a nuclear weapon. The submarine Arkhipov was on (the B-59) was one of 4 Foxtrot submarines sent to Cuba by the Russians. He was NOT the commander of that submarine he was the Commander the flotilla of 4 Foxtrots. On the B-59 the actual commander Valentin Savitsky. Savitsky and his political officer DID PREPARE to launch their T-5 nuclear torpedo, *BUT* because Arkhipov was on that submarine it also required him to agree and he didn't. He worked out the Americans were only trying to signal them. *THAT'S HOW CLOSE IT WAS.* Had Arkhipov been on one of the other Foxtrot submarines then Savitsky would have launched the B-59s nuclear torpedo *which the Americans didn't even know they had.* The Americans didn't find out for many years just how close it came. As a side note of trivia the character played by Liam Nesson (Mikhail "Misha" Polenin, E) in the film _K19: The Widomaker_ is based on Arkhipov.
Interesting discussion, but I think I disagree with the conclusion. Heightened public awareness would justifiably lead to heightened public anxiety, but I don't see pressure from a frightened public leading to better policy.
Actually, they're one of the safest weapons to leave laying around your house, assuming the weapon is properly shielded to protect you from the hideously mutagenic, ionizing gamma radiation.
Dear Sam... (i've heard that line before, with a ring) i am sorry no to give you money, i am from France, i have already many subscriptions (real newspapers, some printed, some online only) but once i'll find a few bucks / € i'll send them to you or some charities in your country, if it is possible (red cross, médecins sans frontières...) No offense meant. I have the chance to be barely fluent in english. And i almost most agree with some of your thoughts (from europe, you could be from either far left to just the hard right (not far right) I listen (leasson ? Hear ? haaaaa) your casts on a regular basis. Thank you very much for making this one full and available. France says hello. We all nee to learn about each other. On the topic, we in Europe (as a whole) see you as a doomsday impossible people to be told "You shoud maybe consume less" I. Am. So. Sorry. i'd be glad if you, and some of our thinkers could meet (even from far away) USA thinks of USA as USA all the time.
@@exoxyTo summarize : We cannot trust the USA to the "lead the world" on climate related topics. Nothing good will come from a pure consumerism, car centered nation.
I don't have the solution here but I think its terrifying that this guest represents a group of people that are the MOST careful and cautious about this issue but he still endorses walking the tightrope of nuclear escalation by engaging with Russia in this war, and also entering into a full-blown war with Russia in response to them using nuclear weapons. I think its extremely important for us to acknowledge the very plausible situations where using a nuclear weapon would be a logical choice for Russia instead of lying to ourselves.
@@kevinchrist1658 anyone who comments in the first 20 minutes on another person's comment is likely trying to pick a fight because they hate themselves
Regarding AI with regard “to pushing the button” or not in response to an incoming threat; war games simulations can significantly reduce the AI unknowns. I think it’s more important to get right the “exact” nature of the imminent threat such that the optimal war-game response scenario can be executed.
One correction. The Cuban Missile Crisis was NOT the closest post-1945 the world got to nuclear war. The world got closer in 1973 in the Yom Kippur War, when Golda Meir took out thirteen nuclear weapons and was prepared to fire them.
Sorry you are wrong and there's actually a huge mistake made by Paul Robichaud at 28 minutes. Before he died Daniel Ellsberg who was their during the Cuban Missile Crisis gave an interview to theAnalysisNews -which is available here on YT. The American's NEVER depth charged the Russians but were actually trying to *SIGNAL* the Russian submarines by throwing hand grenades into the water. That wasn't working because they'd blow up before they went deep enough. So they started wrapping the hand grenades in toilet paper. They'd throw the hand grenades into the water which would then sink before the toilet paper fell away. What the American's didn't know was that this freaked out the Russian because at depth the hand grenades had a concussive effect that made the Russians feel like they were being attacked. What saved the world was the oddity that Vasily Arkhipov was on the particular submarine that thought it was under attack. Normally it only takes 2 people (the commander & political officer) to use a nuclear weapon. The submarine Arkhipov was on (the B-59) was one of 4 Foxtrot submarines sent to Cuba by the Russians. He was NOT the commander of the B-59 he was the overall Commander of the flotilla of 4 Foxtrots. On the B-59 the actual commander Valentin Savitsky and his political officer DID PREPARE to launch their T-5 nuclear torpedo, *BUT* because Arkhipov was on that submarine it also required him to agree and he didn't. He worked out the Americans were only trying to signal them. *THAT'S HOW CLOSE IT WAS.* Had Arkhipov been on one of the other Foxtrot submarines then Savitsky would have launched the B-59s nuclear torpedo *which the Americans didn't even know they had.* The Americans didn't find out for many years just how close it came. As a side note of trivia the character played by Liam Nesson (Mikhail "Misha" Polenin, E) in the film _K19: The Widomaker_ is based on Arkhipov.
There's actually a _"List of nuclear close calls"_ and despite what happened in 1973 being way too close there's a couple of others that got closer. There's also one close call that's NOT on that list and that's the one where a software engineer loaded up a simulation into the BACK-UP system (I think on Friday) and didn't tell people that it was ready to go. While that software engineer wasn't present the main system faulted and the back-up system kicked in and started running the simulation AND NOBODY KNEW it was a simulation. They apparently got within seconds of pushing the button when someone realised that it was running the simulation that they were planning to run in future.
How America can ever take the moral high ground in any conflict after what they did to those civilians in Japan with their A bombs. They should of been tried for war crimes absolutely disgraceful.
You should do some basic research on civilian deaths caused by countries during world war 2. The suffering caused by the atomic bombs was unfortunately a drop in the bucket compared to everything else that happened.
A non-nuclear war with the USSR and/or China was very likely, eventually if nuclear weapons had not been invented. Economic growth and fossil fuel use by the 1960 would have fuelled a war involving 70-100m tonnes of chemical ordinance being produced. Such a war would have been horrendous, much much more destructive than WW2. Of course that point is moot to those who endured non-nuclear modern warfare in various "proxy" in Vietnam and Afghanistan and many other places. So nuclear weapons are good as long as the vengeance doctrine MAD works. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not part of MAD but, simply put, were war crimes.
I think a broad view of abominable Japanese behavior toward the people Japan attacked has to be part of the context. The viciousness and torture suffered by peoples all over the Pacific and Far East at the hands of Japanese soldiers was horrific. The complete disregard for humanity still resonates with Korea and China, and other countries of the Far East. I believe this kind of inhumanity had to be part of the decision to do such destruction to Japan.
What is crazy, is there is not a single person in the west who thinks we would do a first strike, but the paranoia on the other side is what could trigger the end.
I never bought the idea that the decision to drop the bombs without warning was so certain to be the best option that the more humane alternatives weren't to be tried first. As Sam said, the justification was given afterwards, which seems like pandering to me. I'll admit that I don't know more than your average person about the level of fanaticism that the Japanese had at that time, but it would have to be very extreme to justify skipping every less destructive tactic. What is the price of a nuke compared to the lives of tens of thousands of mostly innocent civilians?
Does Russia actually have nukes? I read a post on Quora, by a guy who claimed to have studied the subject of nuclear proliferation for decades, in which he among other things talked about how expensive and time consuming it is to maintain such weapons. For example, the explosives in the warheads have to be inspected and replaced with regular intervals. Considering the state of the Russian forces, anyone see the video where soldiers were told that they themselves had to purchase body armor, medical supplies and basically everything apart from a uniform and weapon, one wonders how many of their nuclear weapons are actually operational.
I wonder how many people were incinerated in the firebombing of Tokyo. Here we have a lot of second guessers. But at least dropping the fucking thing demonstrated how devastating it was. Wonder how else we would have learned.
It started like a conversation between teenagers but it got better later. Some points I want to mention are: 1. The nuclear attack never depends on a single person. At least not in a democracy. 2. Personal is trained to act in stress situations. They are trained to recognize false radar data. 3. The mutual destruction is a deterrence. Otherwise, your enemies would just nuke you away. 4. We had far more wars before nuclear weapons. So nukes as nonsensical as it sounds have caused more peace. 5. In all their criticism they assume that the other side acts moral. You don't know that. 6. The only reason why other countries don't develop nukes is because they are under the protection of US nuclear umbrella.
Ad 4. It is caused not by nuclear bombs but but the incalculable loss of life during World War II. Large countries have not fought with each other since then. They even strengthened cooperation never seen in history (e.g. the European Union)
@@MichalKaczorowski it can be both. The US weren't trading with the USSR during the cold War and we never went head to head probably because of the mutually assured self destruction. But yea trade and cooperation makes countries far richer and prosperous than war does.
Sam, I would like to know what your thoughts are on the likelyhood of the Jihad getting their hands on a nuclear weapon, and using it, for instance on Israel or elsewhere. Because they have the martyrdom at the center of their religious beliefs, I doubt they would hesitate. Also, do you believe a country like North Korea ever sell a nuclear weapon off to an islamic force to use and take credit for to further their geo political goals? Thanks for the podcast!
36:00 this is negated because of nuclear subs. If all the nukes on Americas mainland is deystroyed their is still nuclear subs to attack the provoking country. Every nuclear power aside from north Korea has agreed not to use nukes until its 100%verrified nukes have already been used. Treaties of course can be broken, but its not as bad as Sam thinks it to be here according to Stephen.
With the current condition of the Russian military. How do we know what the condition of the Russian nuclear weapons state? If it is bad as the rest of their military the missiles could be rotting in their silos. That’s scary.
Let's keep this in perspective. The US firebombed 69 Japanese cites killing over a million civilians before dropping Little Boy on Hiroshima. Did firebombing make Japan's military government quit? No. Did they care about their civilians? No. Under the Bushido (Samurai) code everyone was expected to die for the Emperor. Two atom bombs DID make Japan quit. BTW the firebombing raids continued over the three days of the atomic raids ending with a total of 72. More perspective? Japan killed 20 million civilians in China, 2 million in SE Asia (French Indochina & Burma), 2 million in the Philippines and at least million in Indonesia (then DEI). This ranks with the German invasion of the USSR which killed 25 million. It's a terrible arithmetic but the dead at Hiroshima & Nagasaki saved millions more civilians than soldiers had the status quo war continued. The US estimated that 2 million Japanese civilians would die in the full scale invasion set for Nov 1945 and March 1946. It reminds me of what Lincoln said of Grant: "This man understands the arithmetic." Truman knew the bomb was well used and halted any further automatic military use after Nagasaki.
@@aaronpannell6401 Oh they understood. The 3 military ministers of the Japanese government didn't want to quit after two atom bombs! The 3 civilian ministers did want to quit. The emperor had to break the tie. Even then there was an attempted coup by lower level army officers which took four days to quell before the emperor's surrender message could be broadcast to the nation.
@@aaronpannell6401True but we do know that two atomic bombs did make them stop when 69 firebombing raids didn't AND that the military didn't want to quit even after two atomic attacks.
Does it matter what Oppenheimer felt or what movie shows he felt, what matter is years later with more knowledge about the weapon, idiots like Ronald Reagon asked his war advisors whether small tactical nuclear weapons are possible, how they can be used in war..
I mean it is obvious why they didn't use strategic nuclear weapons. They would just destroy their own country and soldiers. Ukraine is too close. But it could use tactical nuclear weapons.
I'm intrigued by the concept of ethics in this context. I thought we, the human race, had come to the conclusion that the existence of nuclear weapons is, infact, unethical. The creation of these weapons was immoral and unethical all the way around. The usage of bombs, of any kind, on cities full of innocent civilians is and was unethical, no matter how many soldiers it might have saved. There is absolutely nothing that can be said that excuses or justifies the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Ethics and morals don't even belong in the same paragraph as nuclear weapons. I really was hopeful that we had figured out that just because you can do something doesn't mean that you should. And AI is exactly the same.. so I guess not.. sad and disappointing.
Sam is literally wrong about everything covid and he's too much of a coward to discuss with anybody directly. Dude became a disingenuous bitch. And I was a fan of his long before you were, I'm sure.
They have my sincere pity. Which I don't give out often. Whenever I wonder if I'm watching too much TH-cam, I think about these comments and I put my phone down and do something that doesn't involve a screen.
The co promoting of the film with Barbie was bizarre and looks like blatant nihilism or mockery. Embarrassing. I’m not watching either film. I’ve seen enough.
You want a film about a mediocre Japanese fisherman who after a mediocre day of fishing comes home to a mediocre house, wife and family. Then a nuclear bomb atomises him. The end?
@justmejustme4444 Some of those Japanese don't fish. They work in office buildings, work in hospitals, and attend school. Maybe the horror of these people skin melting from their bodies and little babies' eyeballs popping out, you know, like a true horror movie like Hollywood likes to make only, this would be based on facts. Oh wait Japs as you probably would call them don't deserve this type of exposure.
I hate people who are technically illiterate. Old tech is less hackable than new tech. Old tech is easier to repair and maintain. There is a reason why military uses mostly old software. On a 286 or a commodore I knew every byte of the operating system. Today's software is huge. Nobody knows every part of it.
@@spooky_action How does that counter anything? I wish people would stop writing meaningless statements. You don't say anything. Nobody knows what you mean. Do you realize that? People need an explanation! If you write statements like that, you just out yourself as an idiot.
Take A Moment Proffeser Sir. You paint pictures with your words Thank you and your colleagues for the universe examples provided I am Jester Moon The Wizard of Silly Funny yet still standing on the shoulders of giant's. Stay Silly Stay Safe and Stay Free ❤ Peace and love etc
You totally lost me at Ukraine. The tone and context of the discussion was one of Russia "bad" and dangerous in their consideration and threat of the use of nukes and Ukraine/U.S. "good" and demonstrating restraint and caution. That's simplistic and ridiculous and the opposite is probably closer to the truth given the fact that Russia's conventional are stronger now than at any time since the 90s and we are "out of ammo" (Joe Biden). It's like they're basing their analysis on news bits from legacy media which EVERYONE who has half a brain cell knows is a propaganda machine for the MIC.
Or maybe it is in the context of Putin, Lukashenko, Medvedev and countless Russian (state) media personalities indirectly & directly threatening to use nuclear weapons. Which I don't think has been replicated in the west.
Hi!
Im a Mphil student at University of Oslo, writing my thesis on extended detterence and nuclear weapons.
Thank you for highlighting the topic Sam, and especiallythe researchers. Really appreachiate it.
I liked the analogy of living in a house wired with dynamite in the walls. It's makes even more sense when you think that with nuclear weapons, nobody is trying/wanting to use them (for say, a first strike) but there are just so many ways it can go wrong, like we've seen with the false positives where they got very close to erroneously launching them because of misunderstandings, or bad code/systems etc. Just like if there is dynamite in your walls, you're not actively trying to set it off but there could very easily be an accident that would set it off.
Thank you Sam for bringing this complex and important topics into meaningful and insightful discussion . Cheers from Warsaw /Poland - city that has been many times mentioned by Russia and Belarus dictators as being the target for potential nuclear weapon during conflict in Ukraine.
Hi Sam - a brilliant and incisive discussion. As an MA graduate in IR and also Strategic Studies (two degrees) I am so impressed with this discussion. I cannot emphasise enough the existential threat these weapons pose. I am not a 'bleeding heart' liberal either - I'm actually what they call a realist in IR, considered a right wing doctrine (though I prefer to refer to myself as 'pragmatic'). As a WMD specialist, however, I do sometimes despair at the lack of attention this subject can garner, so well done as always!
It's somehow become my job to defend Sam in so many ways, on so many channels.
I was a fan of him for so long, and still want to be, but he seems to operate in bad faith when it comes to covid. He fails to correctly represent the arguments from the other side and won't engage in conversation with them either. It's very unlike the Sam I initially became a fan of. His take on Trump is pretty extreme as well. I am not a Trump fan but man people are not exaggerating when they say Sam has TDS.
@@someguy3429 What you're saying actually makes sense to me, maybe Bret was irresponsible in some ways, but I'm not against Bret just because I'm a fan of Sam. I can see where you're coming from with Trump too, but still I'm a little more with Sam on this one, the push to abolish term limits is pretty much a bright line imo.
From what I've understood about his views on COVID, its that taking the vaccine when it was first introduced was rational. And those criticising the vaccine had no grounds to do so, unless they were experts in virology.
@@someguy3429I haven't heard Sam say anything about Trump that was exaggerated or not true.
@@someguy3429"TDS" is a fake medical sounding term to describe critics of Trump. It isn't real.
What an amazing guy you are! Thank you for such a variety of topics & guests, I really learn a lot!
As a nuclear engineer and someone who has played, “Let’s blow up the planet today”, over a hundred times, I’m sensitive to radiation’s secondary effect 6:45 , and the implications of bilateral nuclear war!
That said, we need to realize that nuclear weapons are not going away, and the last thing we need to do is create unwarranted fear in a semiliterate society and planet.
Most people don’t understand how nuclear weapons work, and the intricacies of secondary radiation effects are simply hazards to be avoided at all costs!
This mindset is being used to extort military and political concessions by Putin today! He won’t be the last!!!
My point here is that we (America) opened the nuclear option box, and our scientists, specifically Oppenheimer, gave the plans to Russia. We have the responsibility to ensure that global nuclear war is never a reality, and that comes from a strong nuclear deterrent and a resolve that says, “any place, anytime”!!!
These “avoidance of reality”policy positions of our civil and illiterate polite society is the greatest threat we face as a nation, not external adversaries!
Remember the job is to convince Russian, Chinese, Iranian generals that regardless of what he’s been told, if he pushes the button, he dies, his family dies, everyone they know dies too. It’s not about sanity, it’s about insanity and convincing the other side that we’re ready to go, anywhere, at any time!
For what it’s worth?
Thank you for sharing that -- it was an interesting thought provoking read.
Thanks for the work you are doing! The world needs to hear these conversations and more importantly take them to heart. Wish there was an easy solution to this monster.
Amazing Grace and Chuck is a movie in my opinion everyone should watch.
Imagine the concept of this film happening for real in our social media age. Children and celebrities could become more powerful then any special interest group or government.
“Maybe one day this story will be true”
Another must-see movie is By Dawn's Early Light from 1990 which is available to watch on TH-cam for free. To me the scenario of how nuclear war happened felt so realistic and logical in every detail. It scared me.
As a non-US listener I am baffled by the negative comments without critical, constructive commentary on the actual content 🤔
Most alt media podcasters are homogenising their opinions. Sam isn’t and the Rogan lover audience doesn’t respect that.
Most alternative vegan community podcasters have inflicted their opinion, who hail from the Equatorial regions. These various "thinkers" of the post pandemic theory marginalize Hollywood and regurgitate already known sequences. They build straw men out of the alt right, conquer and divide, and such films are important but nearly irrelevant in rational cultural discourse.
Have you ever been in the US? Mindless criticism is our main form of communication.
@@hamcheeselettucemayosandwichwhat we don't respect is his unwillingness to represent the other side's arguments correctly, and his refusal to engage in any actual discussion or debate about it. Sam used to be somebody to look up to when it came to navigating difficult conversations, regardless of whether we agree or not, but now he is straight up operating in bad faith. I think Sam's newer fans just don't get it.
Welcome to the Internet
I disagree with Carl's calling the nuclear bombings and the firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo "atrocities".
"Atrocities" are generally referring to unjustified acts.
Without knowing what would have happened without these "atrocities", how can he know that they were unjustified?
To NOT do those bombings may have been an atrocity, resulting in even greater harm...we will never know for certain.
By that logic we can't know what if any event is ever justified.
34:40 - Read Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears." The climax of the story will have you throwing the book across the room in disgust because of how plausible the whole scenario really is. Jack Ryan actually has a communication link with the Soviet leader who is trying to negotiate with the President of the United States in order to avert the catastrophe. As it gets closer and closer to happening, with Jack Ryan trying to get the two leaders to talk with one another (the American Prez is being foolishly selfish), Ryan actually throws up in a waste can out of anxiety and stress. I know it's fiction, but Clancy writes it so well that he consults with the Pentagon on occasion.
I'll go see Oppenheimer upon your recommendation. Interesting interview, the guest seems measured and intelligent as far as I can see.
Just don’t pay extra for imax, not worth it
@@hamcheeselettucemayosandwich I saw it in IMAX, and while it was better, I think the difference was exaggerated. I loved the movie though, it was fantastic in my opinion.
Loved the movie, go see it.
Saw it yesterday, the audio is in your face and distracting at times, so being focused helps alot. Also i didn't realize how promiscuous alot of these scientists are 😂
I couldn’t sit through the ending of Oppenheimer “ the shame of his treatment & I’m not even American
Thank you Sam and the team for your hard work!
My grandfather a captain in the Navy was a part of the Nuce program, died a horrible death from cancer at 63. His brother 97, and sister 101. We are a very sick society WORLD WIDE.
Based on the title I thought this was going to be about Daniel Ellsberg's 2017 book of the same title.
But the topics are essentially the same. It's sort of amazing that there hasn't been an accidental nuclear exchange so far. Luck I guess.
Yes its a shame Sam never got to interview Daniel Ellsberg as there's a massive mistake in this interview.
at 28 minutes
The Americans *DID NOT* depth charged the Russian submarines during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In an interview with theAnalysisNews (which is available here on YT) Daniel Ellsberg *who was actually there* at the time related what happened.
The American's were actually trying to *SIGNAL* the Russian submarines by throwing hand grenades into the water. That wasn't working because they'd blow up before they went deep enough. So they started wrapping the hand grenades in toilet paper. They'd throw the hand grenades into the water which would then sink before the toilet paper fell away. What the American's didn't know was that this freaked out the Russian because at depth the hand grenades had a concussive effect that made the Russians feel like they were being attacked.
What saved the world was the oddity that Vasily Arkhipov was on the particular submarine that thought it was under attack. Normally it only takes 2 people (the commander & political officer) to use a nuclear weapon. The submarine Arkhipov was on (the B-59) was one of 4 Foxtrot submarines sent to Cuba by the Russians. He was NOT the commander of that submarine he was the Commander the flotilla of 4 Foxtrots. On the B-59 the actual commander Valentin Savitsky. Savitsky and his political officer DID PREPARE to launch their T-5 nuclear torpedo, *BUT* because Arkhipov was on that submarine it also required him to agree and he didn't. He worked out the Americans were only trying to signal them.
*THAT'S HOW CLOSE IT WAS.* Had Arkhipov been on one of the other Foxtrot submarines then Savitsky would have launched the B-59s nuclear torpedo *which the Americans didn't even know they had.* The Americans didn't find out for many years just how close it came.
As a side note of trivia the character played by Liam Nesson (Mikhail "Misha" Polenin, E) in the film _K19: The Widomaker_ is based on Arkhipov.
Keep your head up Sam ❤
Unfortunately Russia didn't destroy its tactical nuclear weapons as the US did.
Very good questions and explanations Sam! well done.
Only Matthew Broderick can save us by playing tic tac toe.
I felt like Sam was almost about to reference that movie when he said it seems like the best strategy is to not play at all.
Thank you.
Much appreciated info and discussion; nice that the pre-Trump Dr. Harris can still make an appearance… I miss him!
Keep up the good work. great stuff Sam 🙂
Interesting discussion, but I think I disagree with the conclusion. Heightened public awareness would justifiably lead to heightened public anxiety, but I don't see pressure from a frightened public leading to better policy.
Interesting thought
Christopher Nolan said, "nuclear weapons are dangerous things to have laying around the house."
Actually, they're one of the safest weapons to leave laying around your house, assuming the weapon is properly shielded to protect you from the hideously mutagenic, ionizing gamma radiation.
A quote the man in the street could come up with 😴
Dear Sam... (i've heard that line before, with a ring)
i am sorry no to give you money, i am from France, i have already many subscriptions (real newspapers, some printed, some online only) but once i'll find a few bucks / € i'll send them to you or some charities in your country, if it is possible (red cross, médecins sans frontières...)
No offense meant. I have the chance to be barely fluent in english. And i almost most agree with some of your thoughts (from europe, you could be from either far left to just the hard right (not far right)
I listen (leasson ? Hear ? haaaaa) your casts on a regular basis. Thank you very much for making this one full and available.
France says hello. We all nee to learn about each other.
On the topic, we in Europe (as a whole) see you as a doomsday impossible people to be told "You shoud maybe consume less"
I. Am. So. Sorry.
i'd be glad if you, and some of our thinkers could meet (even from far away)
USA thinks of USA as USA all the time.
What?
@@exoxyTo summarize : We cannot trust the USA to the "lead the world" on climate related topics. Nothing good will come from a pure consumerism, car centered nation.
Thank you for nuking the Paywall!
Do that again, Sam.😅
Nuking? 😀
Sam does have nukes😌
Do it again? Then, I suppose: we'll always have Harris.
Paradoxically, Nukes have saved many lives over the years.
I don't have the solution here but I think its terrifying that this guest represents a group of people that are the MOST careful and cautious about this issue but he still endorses walking the tightrope of nuclear escalation by engaging with Russia in this war, and also entering into a full-blown war with Russia in response to them using nuclear weapons. I think its extremely important for us to acknowledge the very plausible situations where using a nuclear weapon would be a logical choice for Russia instead of lying to ourselves.
keep supporting russia pretending to care about humanity.
By your logic Russia could conquer the entire world while everyone just stands by and watches because standing up to them might provoke nuclear war.
Rather than a subscription, I wish Sam gave us PPV options
Someone please time stamp this!
The movie was Great. Just as Sam Harris Usually is 👍🙂
anyone who comments in the first 10 minutes is pretty much a low life troll who misses being able to attack Sam on twitter
Anyone who comments in the first 15 minutes is a shill.
Yeah, those were the days.
Don't be a lying cuck...maybe we used to love sam, but he's gone off the rails lately
@@kevinchrist1658 anyone who comments in the first 20 minutes on another person's comment is likely trying to pick a fight because they hate themselves
once again demonstrating the need for moderation...honestly I will have to email Sam myself lol
Regarding AI with regard “to pushing the button” or not in response to an incoming threat; war games simulations can significantly reduce the AI unknowns. I think it’s more important to get right the “exact” nature of the imminent threat such that the optimal war-game response scenario can be executed.
One correction. The Cuban Missile Crisis was NOT the closest post-1945 the world got to nuclear war. The world got closer in 1973 in the Yom Kippur War, when Golda Meir took out thirteen nuclear weapons and was prepared to fire them.
Sorry you are wrong and there's actually a huge mistake made by Paul Robichaud at 28 minutes.
Before he died Daniel Ellsberg who was their during the Cuban Missile Crisis gave an interview to theAnalysisNews -which is available here on YT.
The American's NEVER depth charged the Russians but were actually trying to *SIGNAL* the Russian submarines by throwing hand grenades into the water. That wasn't working because they'd blow up before they went deep enough. So they started wrapping the hand grenades in toilet paper. They'd throw the hand grenades into the water which would then sink before the toilet paper fell away. What the American's didn't know was that this freaked out the Russian because at depth the hand grenades had a concussive effect that made the Russians feel like they were being attacked.
What saved the world was the oddity that Vasily Arkhipov was on the particular submarine that thought it was under attack. Normally it only takes 2 people (the commander & political officer) to use a nuclear weapon. The submarine Arkhipov was on (the B-59) was one of 4 Foxtrot submarines sent to Cuba by the Russians. He was NOT the commander of the B-59 he was the overall Commander of the flotilla of 4 Foxtrots. On the B-59 the actual commander Valentin Savitsky and his political officer DID PREPARE to launch their T-5 nuclear torpedo, *BUT* because Arkhipov was on that submarine it also required him to agree and he didn't. He worked out the Americans were only trying to signal them.
*THAT'S HOW CLOSE IT WAS.* Had Arkhipov been on one of the other Foxtrot submarines then Savitsky would have launched the B-59s nuclear torpedo *which the Americans didn't even know they had.* The Americans didn't find out for many years just how close it came.
As a side note of trivia the character played by Liam Nesson (Mikhail "Misha" Polenin, E) in the film _K19: The Widomaker_ is based on Arkhipov.
There's actually a _"List of nuclear close calls"_ and despite what happened in 1973 being way too close there's a couple of others that got closer.
There's also one close call that's NOT on that list and that's the one where a software engineer loaded up a simulation into the BACK-UP system (I think on Friday) and didn't tell people that it was ready to go. While that software engineer wasn't present the main system faulted and the back-up system kicked in and started running the simulation AND NOBODY KNEW it was a simulation.
They apparently got within seconds of pushing the button when someone realised that it was running the simulation that they were planning to run in future.
Public service announcement, awareness is paramount... Thanks for Sam $ expert guest to expose what's needed...
What do you make of Oppenheimer not being release in Japan? Ah, I live in Japan. Take care!
Can anyone give any context to the massive increase in trolls in all of Sam’s videos? What have I missed?
Orange cult supporters, and Twit chief zombies 😂
Trump loving trolls for the most part.
@@Sam-tx1tnso he's doing something well/impactful, if they pause their treasoning long enough to troll.
@@stephencrook6998yeah sure, embaracing himself deeper and deeper in regards to covid/vaccines/masks etc.
@jiuonis So its mainly Republicans and anti vaxxers that have a problem with him.
How America can ever take the moral high ground in any conflict after what they did to those civilians in Japan with their A bombs.
They should of been tried for war crimes absolutely disgraceful.
You should do some basic research on civilian deaths caused by countries during world war 2.
The suffering caused by the atomic bombs was unfortunately a drop in the bucket compared to everything else that happened.
We really want to hear what influence Nietzsche had on your current world view Are you a critic, Sceptic, or Philosopher?
Referenced Peter Zeihan, pls bring back on the pod.
What amazes me is Hiroshima and Nagasaki both have growing population counts since the end of the war. I expected radioactive wastelands
My fear would be some of these groups would work against nuclear power, a totally different scenario that easily gets confused.
A non-nuclear war with the USSR and/or China was very likely, eventually if nuclear weapons had not been invented. Economic growth and fossil fuel use by the 1960 would have fuelled a war involving 70-100m tonnes of chemical ordinance being produced. Such a war would have been horrendous, much much more destructive than WW2. Of course that point is moot to those who endured non-nuclear modern warfare
in various "proxy" in Vietnam and Afghanistan and many other places. So nuclear weapons are good as long as the vengeance doctrine MAD works. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not part of MAD but, simply put, were war crimes.
You said his last name correctly! (It's also my last name and not super common so most people butcher it haha)
I think a broad view of abominable Japanese behavior toward the people Japan attacked has to be part of the context. The viciousness and torture suffered by peoples all over the Pacific and Far East at the hands of Japanese soldiers was horrific. The complete disregard for humanity still resonates with Korea and China, and other countries of the Far East. I believe this kind of inhumanity had to be part of the decision to do such destruction to Japan.
The Bisantain empire, against Trace (Bulgaria). They made the whole army blind, one lefth untouched as leader of the group to walk back home.
Excelente Sam Harris
Imperial Japan was just as evil as Nazi Germany... but I still think the use of the atom bombs was unjustifiable.
What is crazy, is there is not a single person in the west who thinks we would do a first strike, but the paranoia on the other side is what could trigger the end.
And I can hear someone 'on the other side' parroting exactly the same thing.
I never bought the idea that the decision to drop the bombs without warning was so certain to be the best option that the more humane alternatives weren't to be tried first. As Sam said, the justification was given afterwards, which seems like pandering to me.
I'll admit that I don't know more than your average person about the level of fanaticism that the Japanese had at that time, but it would have to be very extreme to justify skipping every less destructive tactic. What is the price of a nuke compared to the lives of tens of thousands of mostly innocent civilians?
More people would have a died in a land invasion of Japan tbf
Does Russia actually have nukes?
I read a post on Quora, by a guy who claimed to have studied the subject of nuclear proliferation for decades, in which he among other things talked about how expensive and time consuming it is to maintain such weapons. For example, the explosives in the warheads have to be inspected and replaced with regular intervals.
Considering the state of the Russian forces, anyone see the video where soldiers were told that they themselves had to purchase body armor, medical supplies and basically everything apart from a uniform and weapon, one wonders how many of their nuclear weapons are actually operational.
I live 15 miles from Oak Ridge Y12 and X10
I wonder how many people were incinerated in the firebombing of Tokyo. Here we have a lot of second guessers. But at least dropping the fucking thing demonstrated how devastating it was. Wonder how else we would have learned.
It started like a conversation between teenagers but it got better later. Some points I want to mention are:
1. The nuclear attack never depends on a single person. At least not in a democracy.
2. Personal is trained to act in stress situations. They are trained to recognize false radar data.
3. The mutual destruction is a deterrence. Otherwise, your enemies would just nuke you away.
4. We had far more wars before nuclear weapons. So nukes as nonsensical as it sounds have caused more peace.
5. In all their criticism they assume that the other side acts moral. You don't know that.
6. The only reason why other countries don't develop nukes is because they are under the protection of US nuclear umbrella.
yeah nuclear weapons don't seem to be used very frequently these days
@@kingsman3087they have only ever been used twice in history. Not counting the tests.
Ad 4. It is caused not by nuclear bombs but but the incalculable loss of life during World War II. Large countries have not fought with each other since then. They even strengthened cooperation never seen in history (e.g. the European Union)
@@MichalKaczorowski it can be both. The US weren't trading with the USSR during the cold War and we never went head to head probably because of the mutually assured self destruction. But yea trade and cooperation makes countries far richer and prosperous than war does.
@@aaronpannell6401
we've been on the 'brink' for 75 years
Sam, I would like to know what your thoughts are on the likelyhood of the Jihad getting their hands on a nuclear weapon, and using it, for instance on Israel or elsewhere. Because they have the martyrdom at the center of their religious beliefs, I doubt they would hesitate. Also, do you believe a country like North Korea ever sell a nuclear weapon off to an islamic force to use and take credit for to further their geo political goals?
Thanks for the podcast!
36:00 this is negated because of nuclear subs. If all the nukes on Americas mainland is deystroyed their is still nuclear subs to attack the provoking country. Every nuclear power aside from north Korea has agreed not to use nukes until its 100%verrified nukes have already been used. Treaties of course can be broken, but its not as bad as Sam thinks it to be here according to Stephen.
With the current condition of the Russian military. How do we know what the condition of the Russian nuclear weapons state? If it is bad as the rest of their military the missiles could be rotting in their silos. That’s scary.
Lord of War 2 will jump right on that topic, i would guess...
Let's keep this in perspective. The US firebombed 69 Japanese cites killing over a million civilians before dropping Little Boy on Hiroshima. Did firebombing make Japan's military government quit? No. Did they care about their civilians? No. Under the Bushido (Samurai) code everyone was expected to die for the Emperor. Two atom bombs DID make Japan quit. BTW the firebombing raids continued over the three days of the atomic raids ending with a total of 72.
More perspective? Japan killed 20 million civilians in China, 2 million in SE Asia (French Indochina & Burma), 2 million in the Philippines and at least million in Indonesia (then DEI). This ranks with the German invasion of the USSR which killed 25 million. It's a terrible arithmetic but the dead at Hiroshima & Nagasaki saved millions more civilians than soldiers had the status quo war continued. The US estimated that 2 million Japanese civilians would die in the full scale invasion set for Nov 1945 and March 1946.
It reminds me of what Lincoln said of Grant: "This man understands the arithmetic." Truman knew the bomb was well used and halted any further automatic military use after Nagasaki.
But to drop 2 atomic bombs 3 days apart isn't ethical imo. At least give them time to understand what just happened and what we have.
@@aaronpannell6401 Oh they understood. The 3 military ministers of the Japanese government didn't want to quit after two atom bombs! The 3 civilian ministers did want to quit. The emperor had to break the tie. Even then there was an attempted coup by lower level army officers which took four days to quell before the emperor's surrender message could be broadcast to the nation.
@@longlakeshore but we will never know if that also would have happened after just dropping 1 atomic weapon.
@@aaronpannell6401True but we do know that two atomic bombs did make them stop when 69 firebombing raids didn't AND that the military didn't want to quit even after two atomic attacks.
I almost think we should have a nuclear test just to remind people what could happen.
The opening music does suggest "doomsday".
Does it matter what Oppenheimer felt or what movie shows he felt, what matter is years later with more knowledge about the weapon, idiots like Ronald Reagon asked his war advisors whether small tactical nuclear weapons are possible, how they can be used in war..
The nuke era, where the power we have unleashed has outstripped our wisdom. Oct 15 '23
no bomb then no anime
was well worth
I mean it is obvious why they didn't use strategic nuclear weapons. They would just destroy their own country and soldiers. Ukraine is too close. But it could use tactical nuclear weapons.
I'm intrigued by the concept of ethics in this context. I thought we, the human race, had come to the conclusion that the existence of nuclear weapons is, infact, unethical. The creation of these weapons was immoral and unethical all the way around. The usage of bombs, of any kind, on cities full of innocent civilians is and was unethical, no matter how many soldiers it might have saved. There is absolutely nothing that can be said that excuses or justifies the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Ethics and morals don't even belong in the same paragraph as nuclear weapons. I really was hopeful that we had figured out that just because you can do something doesn't mean that you should. And AI is exactly the same.. so I guess not.. sad and disappointing.
Don’t forget all the other down winders, from all the bombs tested.
This was a good one.
I can't believe Sam gave Barbie a 7 smh.
Lol.. ya' ll still mad for sam calling out rogan and bret
Sam is literally wrong about everything covid and he's too much of a coward to discuss with anybody directly. Dude became a disingenuous bitch. And I was a fan of his long before you were, I'm sure.
@acebigaloo7991 Damn what did I do to you?
@acebigaloo7991The stats prove otherwise.
Brought to you paywall-free by Universal Pictures
As smart as we are, it is not easy to surmount our ape ancestry of intergroup competition and conflictt.
Next year probably: a conversation with AI
If we are still here.
thank you sam
Favorite movie of the year and of Nolans
Praise the Lord 🙏
What a sad life these commenters have
U
U
i think they are actually trolls, this is kind of fascinating
They have my sincere pity. Which I don't give out often.
Whenever I wonder if I'm watching too much TH-cam, I think about these comments and I put my phone down and do something that doesn't involve a screen.
Why?
This is insanity
The co promoting of the film with Barbie was bizarre and looks like blatant nihilism or mockery. Embarrassing. I’m not watching either film. I’ve seen enough.
You kind of lost me on the remark about dead children in hunter Biden's laptop comment. I guess we are all in denial in some way or other?
Signal BOOST
Bet Taiwan wouldn’t mind having at least a couple nukes now
If Sam evr actually reads YT comments, wussup bro.
Threads is still the most important nuke movie, sorry.
Yeah Sam, if events were different than you said, then you’d be right.
I'd rather see the other perspective, who cares about oppenheimmers perspective, the little guy is always left out, no matter what.
Thats Hollywood for ya
You want a film about a mediocre Japanese fisherman who after a mediocre day of fishing comes home to a mediocre house, wife and family.
Then a nuclear bomb atomises him. The end?
@justmejustme4444 Some of those Japanese don't fish. They work in office buildings, work in hospitals, and attend school. Maybe the horror of these people skin melting from their bodies and little babies' eyeballs popping out, you know, like a true horror movie like Hollywood likes to make only, this would be based on facts. Oh wait Japs as you probably would call them don't deserve this type of exposure.
Maybe Jeff bezos ex-wife, McKenzie Scott would be interested in this issue
Maybe if more kids die you will be forced to take the jab 😢
Very engaging, thank you, small change goes long way ❤
I can't afford to buy full episodes so I asked for free access, as you offered- It was not allowed!
Damn. What did they say?
That’s not been my experience. Me and a friend both got access for free, without any questions asked
Not my experience either.
What are the half lives of our current nuclear weapons radiation
😂
I hate people who are technically illiterate. Old tech is less hackable than new tech. Old tech is easier to repair and maintain. There is a reason why military uses mostly old software.
On a 286 or a commodore I knew every byte of the operating system. Today's software is huge. Nobody knows every part of it.
Facts 👌
@@spooky_action I have no idea what you mean. Why would I hate myself?
@@spooky_action You mean me? Do you even know who I am?
@@spooky_action How does that counter anything? I wish people would stop writing meaningless statements. You don't say anything. Nobody knows what you mean. Do you realize that? People need an explanation!
If you write statements like that, you just out yourself as an idiot.
“Seemed warranted to respond to something In Pakistan” spoken like a true American
Has Biden checked where Taiwan is on the map?
Take A Moment
Proffeser Sir.
You paint pictures with your words
Thank you and your colleagues
for the universe examples provided
I am Jester Moon
The Wizard of Silly
Funny yet still standing on the shoulders of giant's.
Stay Silly
Stay Safe and
Stay Free
❤ Peace and love etc
Well this ruins my weekend
Sam - do you think it was right to nuke our brothers and sisters in Japan - children walking to school???
Sam: Nah.
You totally lost me at Ukraine. The tone and context of the discussion was one of Russia "bad" and dangerous in their consideration and threat of the use of nukes and Ukraine/U.S. "good" and demonstrating restraint and caution. That's simplistic and ridiculous and the opposite is probably closer to the truth given the fact that Russia's conventional are stronger now than at any time since the 90s and we are "out of ammo" (Joe Biden). It's like they're basing their analysis on news bits from legacy media which EVERYONE who has half a brain cell knows is a propaganda machine for the MIC.
Russia indeed bad. Always was.
US has a chance to be good if it ever decided to stop russia. But US is too afraid currently.
Or maybe it is in the context of Putin, Lukashenko, Medvedev and countless Russian (state) media personalities indirectly & directly threatening to use nuclear weapons.
Which I don't think has been replicated in the west.
Half a million followers, 53 comments... That's one comment per 11320 people.
Just go away
@@Hjkkgg6788 You first.
Thank you, Captain Autism!
Don't believe the hype.
It’s lit