How soon can a NATO-Russia war happen?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 มิ.ย. 2024
- It's a mistake to assume that the war in Ukraine must end before Russia can be a threat to NATO. This idea is built on a paradox, and it doesn't take into account the question of Europe's limited defense resources. On the contrary, a Russian attack on NATO could be a way to improve their chances in Ukraine.
0:00 Intro
0:24 Why Russia could attack NATO
1:54 Different time estimates
3:19 Why not now?
4:09 The sequential scenario
5:45 The simultaneous scenario
7:37 A way to divert resources from Ukraine
I don't like how much sense he makes
My thoughts exactly 😂😭
Why bother typing if You don't know. Comeback when you know.
Yes, Russia is coming for you. Better hide under the bed, The media is telling you so...
Yup
He shifted the question from "if" to "when" which is completely nonsensical if you know anything about economies, military power and consequences of this potential conflict. Absolute horse c***
I'm in Finland. Having all these discussions across the media talk about how a war between NATO and Russia is a real possibility, while living in a frontline-country (a country that was mentioned as a likely target for Russian aggression on this very channel) is.... troubling.
I´m so happy you joined NATO. Having the formal membership and direct communication and response in place before an attack on Finland is at least somewhat reassuring. Greatings from Denmark.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
I feel with you. As a swede Im sure we will back you up.
You guys aren't the primary target though. Most likely the Baltics have the higher priority in the eyes of Russia.
And even the Baltics are not at the front of the line. Kazakhstan seems to be the lowest hanging fruit. It is a worse copy of Ukraine (with all its downsides and no upsides). And it's neither NATO nor EU.
As a Russian i haven't seen any possibility of us having war. It's impossible to sell idea of Russo-Finnish war to Russians. But that was until you joined NATO. Now government have an excuse for that.
One of your more important messages thus far!
What deos the [obj] in the subtitles mean?
I suspect it's going to be the little green men in the Baltics.
Latvia is especially vulnerable with its eastern region of Daugavpils with ~50% ethnic Russian population many of whom support Russia.
And after they invade they hold a sham referendum and 128% vote yes
Not many of them support the Russian side of things now after what has happened over the last few years.
I can't help thinking that Latvia should ask their citizens where they would like to belong, just to have it on record if and when Russia sends their green men. And if a village close to the border says that they want to be Russian, let them - like when Denmark and Germany agreed on their border post WWI through elections.
@@hoejmaybe Russia can reciprocate on this fantasy.
Latvia? No, I think the russians are more likely to hit on Northern Finland.
I follow geopolitics since i cannot remember, and I follow Ukraine war in real time since de beginning. I follow French, American, Austrian and of course Ukrainian bloggers that I consider credible, without ignoring the propaganda content that will always seeps trough. None of the sources I can find is close to be as good as you. Your calm, factual and knowledgeable analysis are far beyond everyone else that is available. And the fact that you post not so often and relatively short videos emphasises the concept that you post when you have something to say, say what is needed and move on. This is a far cry from most of the « content creators that gets trapped in the reward system of platforms. Thanks for the content, thanks for the help understanding how it works.
Yes, this! High quality calm cold real assessment, without any of the usual social media reward system mumbo jumbo
If you enjoy Anders, you may also like Perun. Incredibly high quality work from that guy, with the same level-headed approach. He's an expert on defense economics, and is the only person I've ever seen make 1-hour PowerPoint presentations consistently engaging and entertaining.
@@Vhalikuporamee447 It's too long and boring. Is he American?
@@NeungView No, Perun is Australian. I also disagree on his content being boring, but I'm a nerd.
Perun propose quelque chose d’encore plus poussé
Hej Anders, faldt over dine videoer. Utroligt gode og informative. God weekend!
very astute observation. Thank you!
When analysts predict a "war" everyone immediately imagines a large scale conflict and you're very right to point out that there are a lot more possibilities than just that.
@@nightbot263 How it is propoganda and wormongering? At this exact time ruzzia is an aggressor in war of conquest. It's only rational to assume it will continue doing what it was doing since 2000s.
NATO said themselves shit will go down soon. Be prepared
Yes, that's right. He just wants war, war, war. It's all he ever talks about. He just punches random people in the face sometimes. I say "Puck, Puck stop!" but he just doesn't listen. He's just trying to start something. He went and hit a Granny in the face the other day because she said something about his knitted sweaters. "Puck what have you done now" I said, but he just laughed. "I want to start a war" he said. What can you do? Thank God there are SMART people like you who are on to his game!@@nightbot263
Yes, hopefully they will send AI drones, or viruses, or anything modern, and not atom bombs.
Russia will do whatever they have to in order to defend Russia, Homeland security has reported massive infiltration of US core infrastructure from power grid to water treatment center computer systems by Chinese hackers... China and Russia are likely to invoke a joint attack, since it's pretty much the world against Russia-China. Their attack is not likely to be in the be in the form of a mushroom cloud, but instead complete shutdown of core infrastructure, followed by Electronic Impulse attacks destroying most electronic equipment taking us back to the stone age... At that point a society built on consumption on capitalism will no question completely self destruct... With all supply chains and distribution shut down, we're looking at Cannibalism within weeks of the events, basically the stuff of nightmares.... We should be minding our own business. Defend our NATO allies, but not put our nose where it doesn't belong.... If Russia could wipe us off the planet without damaging the environment, of course they would and the technology exist to do that.
The three Baltic states should be scared!
Due to Kaliningrad, will Russia - via Belarus - try to start something like Gleiwitz against Lithuania, and then "come to the aid of Belarus"?
Or stirring things up in Latvia, with a huge Russian presence that are known to be hugely backwards to a rapidly modernised, liberal and inclusive Latvia.
It's a reason its very important to have a strong NATO presence in those countries of troops from several NATO members.
I think the Gleiwitz scenario might look quite differently. Imagine a "serious accident" (ie technogenic) in Kaliningrad takes place with certain risks to civilians. Russia requests NATO (Poland and Lithuania) to allow its personnel and equipment in through the Suwalki Gap from Belarus. NATO refuses pointing to Russia's access to Kaliningrad via sea route from St Petersburg. Russia insists it needs land route and makes an ultimatum to NATO to let its forces cross. This also echoes Putin's interview with Tucker where he claimed Poland was to blame for WW2 because it did not let Germany cross.
Apparently the population of Kaliningrad are wanting to secede, so that outpost might collapse overnight if it came to aggression.
We got this thing going:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Expeditionary_Force
@@jesperlykkeberg7438 JEF will be new NATO .. for us
Latvia is not "inclusive." It discriminates against the native Russian population. So, yes they are very vulnerable.
Thank you, insightful and thought provoking as always.
I'd like to hear more about your thoughts concerning the recent replacement of Zaluzhny. Keep up the great videos!
BARILOCHE ARGENTINA
Always awesome. Thanks for continuing to post these.
Thanks Anders, for sharing your professional assessment. Always interesting to have a look at your videos.
You are a voice of reason and I am glad you are putting these videos up and maybe more people will realize, the underlying issues in this conflict and what has to be done.
Thank you!
Again a very interesting video. For me it could even happen tomorrow that Russia in a disguised way could attack Estonia to help the Russian speaking people there. Make it look like a "civil war" like in 2014 in the Dombas.
btw "Dombas" is a meme just like "Bambas" or other variations, born from inability of russians to name it correctly. Correct spelling is "Donbas"
@@IvanHreshko I call it Donbabwe these days.
As a matter of fact, the Estonian border town of Narva (with its 90% ethnic Russian population) has a track record of separatist activity:
* 1991: the locals formed paramilitary units to fight Estonian govt
* 1993: an illegal referendum on the topic of secession from Estonia (and subsequently joining Russia) was held. Most of the voters voted for secession.
Not sure how the locals may behave should stuff hit the fan this time.
@@AlexP-mi2bccompletely undemocratic, if a regional majority wants to join another country ?
Only if a minority (in particular the tip of the pyramid represented on the 1 dollar bill) in and outside Ukraine wants war with Russia, it is democratic..
Wasn’t Mr. Zelensky elected with around 80%, because he wanted to normalize the relationship with Russia?
The majority of „democratic „ elected western leaders stick to their election promises, by doing the exact opposite..
And those, who do actually what they have promised (Blocher in Switzerland, Strache in Austria, Orban in Hungary, Trump in the US are demonized by media, and thrown out of office, or executed as Kennedy after canceling the federal reserve act (first action of his successor: putting the fed act back in place..
Everything is fine in the west?
It doesn’t mean that everything is fine in the east, but the main hurdle to solve big problems effectively is the antisocial crowd elite structure, imo.
@@AlexP-mi2bcThat referendum went nowhere, but the present day Putin regime could easily dig it up and claim it gives them the right to 'defend their people'.
To a large extent, the Ukrainians are getting older materiel and the supporting countries are buying and/or creating new materiel for themselves. So, they ARE improving their own inventories, as well as rebuilding their manufacturing capabilities.
All the US have done is dumped their past its sell by date rubbish on Ukraine. They'll let it go on until they've ripped them off for their decades old F16s.🙄
I dunno, I think the russian military is such a joke that at this time russia would lose a war even against the 3 baltic countries lol.
There is no dilemma at all. The first place NATO would head is Ukraine and completely destroy what is left of Russia's conventional military. I think what you are missing in this discussion is just how powerful Europe is even without US of A. Go do your fact finding and you will learn very quickly that Europe is far and away militarily way ahead of Russia at this point in time. So why is Puck spreading a false narrative?
But what we are not doing is buying increased capability. Our stocks that we are building now, will be needed by Ukraine in a years time. So where are NATO's stocks? What we need, to send a clear message to Russia and the CCP is that we are ready to wage a war. Far cheaper to build a deterrent and say we are ready, than to actually fight a war, just look at 80 years ago.
So although we are doing some improvements, they are not enough. The is a clear and present danger of imminent war, our politicians need to stop looking at their own careers and business interests and start serving the communities that have voted them in to govern the country. Personally I'm sick and fed up of personal politics in government, Donald Trump is a narcissistic twat, I don't know if he seriously thinks he can amend the constitution like Putin did to make him dictator for life, but there is a huge difference between the USA and Russia. Russians have had hundreds of years of being told to stay out of politics and politics will stay out of their lives. USA is only a couple of hundred years old and has continually told it's government, stay out of our lives and we will leave you alone. Trump is going to waste another 4 years in office doing nothing but complaining, like he did last time, and then get booted out (if he doesn't end up being the fifth assassinated president). Wake up Yanks, stop the rot.
Respectfully, I think you may have misunderstood Anders’ main point.
You are correct in pointing out that NATO would not place the same constraints on their own direct military engagements with Russia that they place on the Ukraine, especially with their air power.
Anders is arguing that it would not necessarily require complete Russian military victories in whatever NATO state they invaded next for that second ‘Special-er Military Operation’ to cause NATO into dilemma decision making-mode, and for their support for Ukrainian defense to dry up as a result of their reactions.
Fantastic pod cast . No gimmick just great reporting .
As always, insightful analysis. Thank you.
YOU ARE SO RIGHT ANDERS, I wish european leaders listen to you
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 they do, or more like he listens to eu politicians
It's the other way around..
@@GetFochDgiven what the UK the largest non EU military is in utter shambles and the defence department begs for money. I'm not entirely sure what you mean.
France has already been spinning up the defence industry since before this.
Yeah I wish that EU leaders would listen to a youtuber profiting off of algorithm by making wild highly improbable claims 🙄
@@korosensei4384 Dude Anders got his government gig, he make more money that Putin officially make every year. ho dont need comrade googles money
Thank you for you analysis. Very interesting and informativ. Always appreciate it.
Thanks for the video - do you have a video on potential for an euro-army ?
BARILOCHE ARGENTINA
Well Poland and Finland will 100% be in it
Excellent content. Never thought about an attack on nato while fighting in Ukraine.
Opening a second front will probably have the same outcome for Russia as the germans during WWII. It can give short term relief for the pressure in Ukraine, but in the long run they will be dealt with.
It doesn't have to be starting a conflict.
Suppose Trump gets elected, and he pulls out US 'tripwire' forces in Baltics and Poland. Then Russia conducts a military exercise near the border to Baltic countries or in Belarus. That may be enough to scare EU politicians to prioritize stockpiling over giving to Ukraine.
If you mean the second front fought by Germany then yes. But if you mean the second front fought by Japan so that could have been the decisive moment if they attacked USSR again in 1941. So my guess is that Russia will try to pressure someone else to open the second front.
It's surprisingly funny that you people think a war between nato and russia will stay conventional,it will go nuclear fast and it will be kinetic with thousands of nukes hitting each other.
@@dimitriosgkanios4915You entitled to your opinion, but very wrong IMO.
@@richarddietzen3137well let's get rid of nukes if can't be used a pretentious waste of money
Thank you for your time and your clear presentation. Your analysis and communication skills are brilliant.
Thanks!
Tak!
A thought-provoking presentation. Thank you. I rely on you and Perun for understanding global conflict.
Me too! Cheers
Perun is ukrainian source
@@Chaldon-hl6ykPerun is Australian.
Thank you Anders.
Thank you.
Helpful discusssion but depressing, since it offers a dilemma in which none of the choices are good. Complications always make choices more difficult and unanimity harder to achieve.
I think your analysis is on point. Thank you a lot for doing these videos.
Short and to the point as always. Great stuff. Thanks, Anders
Very clear, if disturbing, argument. Always find your presentations stimulating. Thank you.
As allways, sober and informative.. thank you
Dammit, Anders, just when I was getting comfortable up here in northern Lapland, you've gotta crap on my hopes in not one, but TWO videos!!
Putin’s worst move would be to invade Finland and Scandinavia. It would result in his almost-immediate demise.
@@tmike_tcyou probably have no clue what its like to fight against country with nuclear arsenal. Until NATO will not provoke Russia they would keep ground operation in Ukraine. But when it will provoked, NATO neighbors will face carpet bombing, tactical and not nuclear silos. It will not be like Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Both sides would cease to exist, so it makes me wonder why you are being happy with that. This chap is nothing but warmonger.
Svalbard ... th-cam.com/video/S2sYCabtQX0/w-d-xo.html
@@skodbruger5344Now how likely is it that Russia invades Denmark only. And how likely it is that its immediate neighbors, Germany, Sweden, Norway and Poland won't do anything about it. I still hope that Denmark has got plans in place to replenish their artillery ammunition (that's what Denmark actually plans to supply in total to Ukraine now).
For the sequential scenario, does it matter who wins the war? In my view, Russia losing will decrease the chance of them attacking NATO countries. In any case, Europe needs to scale up weapons production a.s.a.p.
Yup. That is a point the video is lacking. If Ukraine makes a huge breakthrough and ends up expelling all Russian forces and stands on the verge of marching on Moscow before Russia surrenders, then they are not going to invade a Nato country.
If Russia manages to keep the occupied territory, even if the rest of Ukraine is allowed to remain sovreign. Or if Ukraine loses the war entirely, then Russia will invade another country.
That's a lot of future telling, guys.
If we assume no more us aid is coming and Trump wins, then even the strongest supporter of Ukraine, like me, will have to accept Ukraine probably will not regain big chunks of land. More like they will lose more, because we europeans are just to weak and slow to do anything.
So right now i see it going Putins way and he will be even more likely to finish Ukraine and Nato once and for all. You have to give it to Russia. They took on the West and won losing just prisoners and losers. Just by buying off the right americans and making Europe believe we could abandon our military. They are good a chess in Russia and we are soon check mate
What exactly they attack Europe with? They have lost so much equipment it will take them decades to even have any decent defensive capabilities.
@@unduloid human bodies and rockets.
Har fulgt med i krigens døgn siden første afsnit fedt lige at finde ud af at du har en TH-cam kanal!
Amazing video.
That old "Divide and Conquer " chestnut
Looking at how Russia has acted in Georgia, Ukraine and even by a smaller extent in Moldova (Transnistria) it's very evident that Russia is going by "divide and conquer" strategy. It's never gonna try attacking NATO directly, but it will do all it can to weaken it. My guess is that before any direct wars happen in the Baltics, we'll see instability due to Transnistria and Kosovo (Serbia remains supportive of Russia for a reason). Maybe even Greenland or Malta, as both of these islands aren't formal NATO members. As far as the Baltics go there will be attempts to rile up resistance factions or even civil wars, allowing Russia to weaken these countries without technically ever setting foot inside them.
To put it another way, the less people are worried and prepared for a war, the more likely it is of happening. Likewise, the more people are concerned and ready for a war, the less likely it is that Russia's sabotage attempts will succeed.
Yeah, lets talk about Georgia. Still an independent sovereign country after war with Russia. No slavery as we've been led to believe. Anyone understand what happened?
@@lancerevo9747 Nobody did or said much of anything about the war really. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that it happened in 2008, right as Europe was dealing with the subprime mortgage and was beginning to enter the Eurozone crisis. Maybe it's also because not many people consider the Caucuses as European?
@@lancerevo9747It was similar to Crimea.
There was no war. Russia just took over an area before the much smaller country could properly respond.
Georgia is confronted with the choice of starting a war with Russia which it could never win, or just try and get international support, which is mostly falling on deaf ears.
Crimea and Transnistria in Moldova were the same. The international community failed to act accordingly.
These successes slowly made Russia cocky enough to go for all of Ukraine eventually, and if Russia wins in Ukraine then who knows...
Greenland is not an independent country but a part of Denmark and Denmark is a NATO member state and thus so is Greenland
@@gudnikristinn you can't be serious. The Russo Georgian war of 2008 that followed the Bucharest Declaration didn't exist? 🤣
Thanks
Very astute observation
Very interesting analysis Anders.
There is no dilemma at all. The first place NATO would head is Ukraine and completely destroy what is left of Russia's conventional military. I think what you are missing in this discussion is just how powerful Europe is even without US of A. Go do your fact finding and you will learn very quickly that Europe is far and away militarily way ahead of Russia at this point in time. So why is Puck spreading a false narrative?
Pasting your otherwise-astute comment which ends with your “false narrative” accusation, all through the comment section, negates its value almost completely.
Love your Stuff.
hej anders, jeg håber, og ser frem til et nyt interview, med jake broe, jeg tror der er nok nyt i krigen til at i kan lave en givende debat.
tak fordi du laver disse updates og vurderinger! du har en rigtig god indsigt! cheers! :)
These are the clearest analysis of the war in Ukraine I’ve come across. Thank you
close but not quite close.
This is the most unprofessional analysis,I have ever seen.
I get it ,cause the guy is from Denmark and doesn’t understand,what is happening there.
Always prescient👍
So - if US stepped out, we should:
Pull all support to US missions.
Buy hardware in Europe, Türkiye, Israel and kinda anywhere but US.
Trump understands one language, money. There are app 2 mio in the arms industry, so they can start by laying off 200,000. While we don’t have to throw boys and money at US missions.
Europe first, kinda..
whatever the outcome, we can’t trust US anymore-and we are in a freaking hurry.
Great upload!!
Unfortunately for some, this may depend on who ‘we’ is
Add South Korea and Japan to the list of potential suppliers. Also, consider Israel has offered a military alliance with Europe (you can write in a clause to exclude terrorism and disputed territories, only full scale war among mutually recognized countries).
Yea, but you betrayed the US first. It is only fair that they screw you back. Excluding some of those 11 countries meeting the 2%
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, only after they’ve tried everything else. - Winston Churchill.
In all seriousness, don’t trust my country. Many Americans are ignorant of how peace in Europe benefits America, and want to totally abandon you guys to your own defenses. Americans on the right and left definitely feel that way, some going so far as to say they prefer Russia to France or Germany. There is a good chance we stop supporting you all militarily in November.
We in Europe still can trust USA. No-one can trust tRump.
Don't confuse 'USA' with 'tRump'.
excellent considerations!
Another fabulous analysis seen nowhere else. Stellar job, Anders. I will be sad the day that you are being headhunted to a job in another nation. Surely the job offers must be rolling in, if foreign miritary analysts are half as smart as you are.
🇩🇰🇺🇦SLAVA UKRAINI 🇩🇰🇺🇦
We need your videos to be a) longer and b) more often! Thanks for your work! :)
BARILOCHE ARGENTINA
Thanks for another interesting insight, also quite surprised how Danish military perceives the situation in comparison to other nations.
Any logical explanation to this discrepancy?
Better to be pessimistic than not.
@@EvoraGT430 Yep, "Plan for the worst; hope for the best."
Danmark doesn't have a whole lot of economical and/or political dependancy on Russia. Unlike quite a many other western nations, it turns out.
@@11235butHe's a captain of the Danish Navy and a military analyst.
@@11235butWhat we know for certain is that the future is unpredictable.
It's so obvious that giving Ukraine support is so much cheaper and effective than any other defense spending. Why can't the West, Europe in particular step up? All that has been given is surplus. Russia has so many weak spots. Transdniestra, Kaliningrad, Georgia, Syria.
At very least the information war could be massively tilted in the favor of the West.
Anders, thank you for another in depth and thought provoking discussion. I enjoy your videos and look forward to hearing your ideas. Keep up the great work!
The cessation of the war in Ukraine frees the resources that are needed to reinforce NATO in preparation to defend against any future Russian attack. But there must be an overlap to permit the procurement, recruitment and training (all the DLODs) to be brought up online, which was my question recently to some senior officers - do we feel the demand signal is being sent quickly enough and urgently enough to industry? I don’t feel like it is.
Take a Baltic state for example, they can fight at home and with their own people, or they can do it via proxy at arms length.
The choice is pretty clear, in which case all they need worry about is production.
@@mikemunro811Same reasoning applies to the United States:
Our support of the Ukraine’s defense is the most effective, most economic use of American foreign policy and defense dollars imaginable. The West is bringing the Russian Bear to its knees, and China has taken full notice, too.
@@tmike_tc if the goal is to weaken an adversary, then yes, true
Not really. There are contracts and the funding is there but no they aren't really sending much of a signal. They stalled for stupid elections
In order for the simultaneous situation Anders proposes to work it would need to both use very few russian resources and also require such a large response from the European countries that they would have to seriously reduce Ukraine support. I can't see what kind of operation that would be, it seems unlikely
Additionally, if it was big it also removes some Russian pressure from Ukraine. If it was small it could backfire, because the EU could decide to double down on helping Ukraine. Not wanting to be directly involved would not be a blocker any more because the EU would be already attacked in this scenario. So helping Ukraine could be seen as Uno-Reverse-Card to try to make Russia stopping the attack to prevent loosing in Ukraine.
Nuclear experiment on Russia's own territory. Russian nuclear bomb capable planes patrolling inside Russia close to NATO. Doesn't spend much resources yet can send Europe into panic mode.
It just has to scare Europe enough that a European politician can score political points by reducing aid to Ukraine in the name of preparing for a dorect confrontation woth Russia.
It doesn't have to be a real confrontation. Riots in Estonia backed by Russia with Putin noting that Estonia belongs to Russia. The a (potential/actual) President Trump saying "Germany doesn't contribute 2%, so I don't care what Russia does." He doesn't actually have to attack Estonia outright.
And then we have a battle hardened Russia on a semi wartime dooting threatening Estonia, Europe has stockpiled some extra ammo, but lacks experience and ability to actively replenish stockpiles as quickly as Russia for the next 2+ years. So they rapidly decide they have no choice but to accept Russia's complete occupation and ethnic cleansing of Ukraine.
Not saying it will happen, but it seems like a Tactic Russia would use.
And of course that raises the risk of a miscalculation.
Causing civil unrest with 'false-flag' operations is in ruzzia's playbook (basically Ukraine 2014).
Civil war is not an Article 5 conflict.
@@DreadX10 Little green men are definetly an Article 5 event...
Your channel is criminally underrated, I can't believe you provide all this commentary for free.
read above comment "Ridiculous". Free? Ya, free stupidity.
He is able to lie all day long for free, but I belive CIA is giving him some money for his help...
All what? All bull sh.
US shill for warmongering. The US government has a billion Dollar budget to sponsor this sort of drivel.
I was thinking the opposite. I wonder why we have so many idiots who believe this liar.
Thank you. I always appreciate your insight and opinion.
Greetings from Latvia (:
💛💪💙🌻🌻🌻
"Si vis pacem, para bellum" (Publius Flavius Vegetus)
I think the simultaneous scenario makes *much* more sense. Russia could even right now. Isn't the israel/Gaza wsr part of this operation? Or the Houthis attacking international shipping? Or the Venezuela/Guyana threats?
However, I do think Putin will wait until November, he doesn't want his poodle to lose again.
So Europe has a few months. European arms production needs to be ramped up *fast* .
Sic est
A very sharp - and scaring - analysis. It must be evident that we have to act fast.
It's almost like we were all in a similar position around 85 years ago.......
load of BS, you'll believe anything.
Yes we must act on fear and paranoia fast, the Russians can pull infinite money and resources from another dimension and overwhelm us all !!!
And You believe Donny Trump ?@@jamesdoe3713
Yeah act fast based on paranoia and fear, quckly before russians get their infinite money and resources from another dimension !!
You’re a scary man.
Well done.
Anders is the voice of clarity in the cacophony of TH-camrs and commentators. He has the appropriate frame of reference, and does not project emotional hyperbole or detachment. He does not couch his points in excessive psychology or historical supposition. It has long been clear that Europe needs an integrated defense. It is the toughest political project. With in NATO the Baltic 8 have been meeting but do not have nuclear deterrence, which is key.
Thanks a lot for your work, Anders! Much appreciated.
Very good !
Let's get this on already!
Great analysis. One question though for the simultaneous scenario. If Russia attacks a European country, assuming the US is out, wouldn't European Nato countries still band together and declare war? If a Russian attack means all the armed forces of European countries mobilize and join Ukraine on the battlefield, wouldn't that spell disaster for Russia? tx
It would, but Eastern Europe loves Russia and would never go to war with it. Hungary and Turkey are out as well. Greece won't risk it all alone with Romania. Western Europe may decide to go to war, but for what? Defending countries who abuse the union? No way.
@@archardor3392Poland is modernising its military capabilities
The Lisbon treaty of the EU has in fact a mutual support clause. EU countries HAVE to help eachother in case of war, and is even more binding than NATO, because that clause states that ALL available means need to be used to help, something article 5 of NATO doesn't demand.
@@archardor3392 Hungary is a member of NATO and despite our "president" Orban is a friend(agent?) of Putin Hungary is still obliged to help if any other NATO country is attacked.
If Trump is elected, could you imagine a faster timeline? If I was Putin I would move while he's in office.
One thing I've always wondered was why Putin did not invade Ukraine while Trump was in office? That seems like a big strategic mistake. As I doubt Ukraine would have got as much US support if any.
Trump is unpredictable. It's very dangerous to try an unpredictable response
Of course i am not sure, but i consider the pandemic situation and just overall build up of forces taking time.
He likely assessed, that Trump would want to be the radical strongman and just send it. As in, training, weapons, intel sharing, everything. He didn't want to gamble on a coin flip and create even stronger bipartisan support. I don't know Trump too well but populists either go overboard or nowhere usually
I have n doubt that it was trumps idea that Putin attack saying he would not intervene plus it serves trump as revenge for Ukraine not helping with his feud against the Bidens !
Trump has given Putin a list of targets - countries spending less than 2% GDP on defence. Which lines up nicely with Anders previous video target of the Arctic Finland / Norway / Russian border.
Would the simultaneous scenario actually result in resources diverted away from Ukraine? My thought was that those countries that do respond to article 5, however few they may be, might attempt to limit escalation by attacking Russian troops in Ukraine (+ whatever part of NATO Russia invades) rather than attacking them on their own soil.
I also think there would be the danger for Russia that Europen countries see a massive counterattack as their only option. When being forced to make the decission to withdraw help from Ukraine to defend elsewhere, this would be seen as being attacked at multiple places. Then European countries could see counterattacking the Russian army in Ukraine or even counterattacking Russia proper as their best option. At the moment we help Ukraine hoping that we don't need to sent our own troops. But if there would be boots on the ground they could as well be in Ukraine.
That is quite an interesting thought. There is no doubt, that once the fear of escalation no longer exists (since NATO and Russia are already at war), it would be very tempting for NATO to enter Ukraine, with land troops AND planes. This would absolutely destroy the Russian presence there.
"This would absolutely destroy the Russian presence there."
I fear the possible consequences of that scenario.
@@teebodk3917 The fear of escalation would still persist as nukes exist. But, the deployment of troops to Ukraine would be on the same level or lower of escalation as a direct attack on a NATO member
There is no dilemma at all. The first place NATO would head is Ukraine and completely destroy what is left of Russia's conventional military. I think what you are missing in this discussion is just how powerful Europe is even without US of A. Go do your fact finding and you will learn very quickly that Europe is far and away militarily way ahead of Russia at this point in time. So why is Puck spreading a false narrative?
When's the video on avdiivka coming out
A lot of EU countries are starting to implement a mandatory military service period. Here in Croatia, its said it will begin by the start of 2025. And we are all ready calling for our reserve troops to be retrained. Things ain't looking good. Seems like everyone is preparing for something.
As a Serbian I do not know what to feel at all. I just imagine our local overlord announcing a retake of Kosovo the moment a larger Russia-NATO war breaks out. Not sure how probable that is.
Oooo Komsija,Kako je?
Rakija je vruca,Hajde😊
Just keep your fingers crossed that the russian imperial ambitions are stopped in Ukraine.
What's wrong with you? Don't you dream about giving your life fighting for Kosovo? What's a limb or two lost compared to eternal glory? 🦵😂
I'm fighting on the side of Kosovo if that happens
@@uninstaller2860 I am fighting for all sides. I'll write a hundred you tube comments if that ever happens.
There are certain things EU can do in order to curb this scenario: place orders with the Turkish, Pakistani, Korean etc. military industrial complexes. Give the foreigners long term contracts - you won't have issues with weapons. I think EU politicians are too occupied with keeping their money within the EU and ordering munitions from the European manufacturers whose production capacities are quite limited.
I get kinda why though, but yes, if the industrial military complex of the EU is not up to deliver, we got no choice.
Russia stuck an influence in Africa which is the key to the European Military Industrial Complex resources. I.e. the raw minerals needed for their weapon technologies.
Alex: great comment! I see it in Europe time after time - military spending is always economic policy, driven by politicians who want to ‚feed‘ local economy - regardless of cost! See France with the rejection to buy 155mm shells abroad, only to bolster local manufacturers who cannot deliver at all! Or Germany with 2 competing tank manufacturers, one of them teaming up with a French one, or Airbus, which is ordered to manufacture the A400 or Tiger Helicopter with no experience at all in the respective area! A400 is turning a success, but Tiger Helicopter is fiasco!
Turkish and Korean made sense. Pakistani? They buy Chinese equipment, and are currently barely able to keep the lights on.
Start with even being willing to sign long-term contracts with their own European suppliers first
Som alltid, kloka och intressanta ord Anders - tack!
Eller hur, nått som han kanske inte tog upp är Timing, när är bäst?
Hej Anders, great analysis & channel. Though I personally wish it was another topic and Russia never started all these wars in the first place
"It's about diverting resources from Ukraine"
As if ruzzia on itself has an extra resources which it somehow can't deploy against Ukraine but magically will be able to deploy against some NATO member))
This all talk about how Russia will go after NATO is like boogeyman stories for kids, and people are falling for it , look at the comments
It´s his job to spread mumbo jumbo, alright. Don´t be to hard on him, lol.
There is a possibility to strike fast into an undefended place with relatively minor resources. And even if they were repelled after their initial success, they might still accomplish the goal of challenging article 5. In any case, it would scare the heck out of other nations and make them rush to fortify their boarders, possibly at the cost of supporting Ukraine.
To counter that scenario, let's not leave undefended areas where Russia could even imagine to invade. The defense probably won't need to be massive since the attack won't be either. But the defense needs to exist.
Thanks for another great video!🇦🇺👴🏻
I actually don't think it will happen. Russia won't try something like this while it is still fighting in Ukraine( and I personally think Russia will likely want to take 5-10 years after the war is over to consolidate her gains and rebuild). And Ukraine is still the prize the Russians want and they will likely not even think about Europe while Ukraine still exists, General Pilsudski famous for the Soviet-Polish War always said something along the lines of "There can be no independent Poland without an independent Ukraine." His reasoning was that if Russia lacked Ukraine she would not be able to subdue Poland, let alone Poland plus NATO, and would instead focus all her efforts on bringing Ukraine back into the fold.
What I envision is the war in Ukraine ends one way or another, and the Russians focus on rebuilding and integrating those parts of Ukraine they captured while waiting for the US and China to have a showdown so they can cut a deal with Washington for sanction relief and recognition of de facto borders in exchange for Russian neutrality and maybe even stymieing the flow of petroleum to China which combined with a US Navy blockade would make China's position untenable.
Your statement would be logical, if not for the fatal flaw in the reason they invaded that I believe your statement is built on.
ruzzia doesn't need Ukraine as a territory, it didn't need Georgia, and neither did Crimea. There is always one and the same point to all of those invadings. Putin needed to bring his president rating up. And it did worked exactly like this this war as well.
That's reasonable that you think of ruzzia as of a real country, which functions logically, and reasonable. But its ruled by Putin's friends, and all the money from the whole ruzzia meets at moskva. So you might as well call 99% of ruzzia its colony, and Moskva, the country itself.
@@PewDiePie777 my dude is unhinged
So many questions and concerns while the answer is right in front of your eyes. If you are looking for peace simply don't provoke Russia.
7:16 This an absurd argument. There would be no dilemma, as Russia would only be able to pose a threat against a direct neighbor. And if Ukraine is still going on, Russia would find NATO entering Ukraine in order to bolster this hypothetical neighbor. Most of the reinforcements would be provided through Poland. And Ukraine would be a hub for this.
Also, since the Swedes and the Fins are now NATO, this dramatically alters the calculus for the survival of St Petersburg and Kaliningrad, both of which sit on Lake NATO. Essentially, Russia would lose those ports entirely, and the Baltic and Black Seas would be shut to their shipping. No oil out, no supplies in. Which leaves their pacific ports, which are girded by US Naval forces in Japan.
NATO doesn't have to fire a single shot at the Russian military to win. They just have to strangle Russia by preventing shipping. And given that Putin never focused on a functional blue water navy, they're going to lose that fight.
Which would be disastrous for Russia.
In theory yes, they could, and it seems logical. However if EU and NATO even today cannot block Russian imports of Westen sanctioned products through for example Kazakstan this may not be as easy as said..
@@janisaksson5966Can't is a bit much, more that they won't. If sufficiently further provoked then it absolutely would be possible to completely block trade. You'd just order Kazakhstan to also stop trading with Russia or we'll stop trading with them. As for shipping just make it completely illegal to trade with Russia and stop and confiscate ships that do it anyway.
This video is empty fluff. It's too vague, too abstract. There's more logic in your mentioning of Scandi membership and Russian logistics than in this entire 9min video.
1.25x or 1.5x speed always recommended for videos like this.
That's an interesting point. If Russia would attempt to destabilize NATO by some below-war-level actions, NATO would possibly decide to increase support for Ukraine, giving them WHATEVER is needed below the level of nukes. Ukraine still does not have many fighters and long-range precision missiles, so these would be the first thing to go in. Then Russia will lose all of its current air superiority in Ukraine, and essentially lose the war there because of it.
I agree with all of you. Dragging NATO into direct war would certainly cut off the seaways for Russia and it would be politically posible to supply Ukraine with whatever it takes including jets and long range missiles. Also Russia would probably loose the rest of their fleet, a nummer of oil refineries and other main targets in all of Russia. That is, if a war escalates. But it is not something to wish for. How sane is the russian leadership if they face total defeat? Can they abstract from using nukes?
There is also, the Mad Ivan Factor.
The only time that article 5 was invoked, was by United States after 9/11, Europe responded to the call and lost many soldiers in Afghanistan. Now US will maybe not help in Europe? WTF how ungratefull can you be as nation?, very disapointing that they dont have the balls to be on a team, when it dont benefit themselves.
Don’t worry buddy, they’ll sell Europe a bunch of top tier arms for a good price.. of course, if only Europe agrees, that the quicker the delivery should be - the more should pay 😜
And do never believe their arms industry makes fcloads of money in Ukraine today. It is not true, even though the congress ppl openly admit to 🤓
Preach 👏🏿
If you just argue about the date, then apparently they already agree about an upcoming war. I find the massive media attention that is currently available on this subject striking.
We already have a war. The question is does it spread and if yes then when?
@@leonhardtkristensen4093”WE” don’t technically have a war at all, Ukraine has a war, it’s just that NATO has decided they so desperately want to destroy Russia that they’ve decided to use Ukraine as a proxy to do so. The only way this war spreads is if western troops occupy Ukrainian territory and find themselves on the receiving end of Russian missile strikes and somebody decides to declare this an act of war.
This war will not spread. Ask from the Russian Lt. General level up and they will say, but those guys over there have 1000 fifth generation aircraft to our eight. And have nuclear weapons same as we do. Maybe Putin is suicidal. But it is unlikely all his Generals are also suicidal.
Ww3 is just fear porn. Once the Ukraine war ends America will have military bases in Ukraine and it’ll just be South Korea in Eastern Europe. Then the age of drone ai warfare comes and soon we all get herded into smart cities
Anders is consistently some of the best international affairs analysis on YT.
This is brilliant.
Why couldn't the best analyst predict Ukraine's loss in this war?
What are you talking about? This guy doesn't get one right!
So what’s the short answer?
Great analysis, and if your a chess player who's back a few pieces on your opponent, then definitely you strike first
question about he simultaneous scenario, if RU attacks a NATO country and provokes a war to distract and take resources away from UKR, wouldn't that also risk having NATO and UKR becoming de-facto close allies, even closer than they are now? Unite thing and then give NATO an excuse to send more active support to UKR? The fear that US and NATO had of RU escalation and thus limiting aid to UKR would no longer be relevant? Wouldn't this be a possible unintended consequence of Putin/RU's assumptions similar to what they had when they invaded UKR in the first place? (To prevent UKR from getting too close to the West, they invaded, and thus UKR became much closer to the West)
Yess exactly, i felt like he totally missed this.
Russia doesn't have the power to win a war against nato.Of course they can attack a nato country if they want, but i don't think they are so stupid.If china may attack taiwan that's a chance russia will follow attacking a nato country.
@@user-qt7wb4nu1l if russia attacked nato we would go into full war economy europes industrial output after a few months would dwarf russia substantialy
Russia still has lots of nuclear weapons. So they can threaten Europe or even use some tactic nuclear weapons to warn Europeans not to fight in Ukraine and just defend their own borders. Without the US (after Trump winning the election) Europe would not have such a big or effective nuclear deterrence, so Russia can play with their tactic nuclear missiles. I come from Germany and I‘m really afraid.
Maybe they wouldn’t need a massive ground element.There may be some specialised units, sure, but Ukraine could supply the mass while NATO equips it and provides a naval element, air power, more missile defences, etc.
This is so important. I really hope we prepare properly
I think the first step would be to crank up the arms industry (more). Because even if no war between Nato countries and Russia ever occurred, any production overflow could be sent to Ukraine.
The close second step would be to start preparing the military personnel and organisation for, like, any action at all. Because as said, it takes time. Maybe a couple of international excercises a year, which could conveniently happen in those very parts of Europe where Russia might otherwise plan to attack.
Wake up Europe’s, get prepared.
Denmark and several other european countries are discovering right now that when you harvest the peacetime dividend, the peace time disappears.
As estonian im so tired of fear already. Dont know if i should sell everything and move to west with family already or no. As a man i have to be on frontline with old ironsight weapon, no tanks no airforce and most important, no AA. Im not allowed to leave country if it starts. Last summer 13 years after my army conscription i had my first retraining to remind some old skills. We will not survive 3 months here until nato starts to act. It will be over in a week and both sides know it.
There are soldiers from each NATO country in the Baltic States. The idea is that if one of them would be injured or killed it would increase war support in his/her home country by a big amount. So I think there would be help fast.
Atleast you guys have a cool looking uniform
Just thinking that if they attacked nato would it not also open for NATO directly supporting Ukraine?
That's why I wonder if it wouldn't instead be an attack on a non NATO country, but one that Europe felt obligated to defend, and America in its current state couldn't get out of gridlock to defend. Hence the wedge.
@@bearcubdaycareMoldova is the best option
Unlikely as atm Ukraine is not officially a part of NATO
Why would that matter? Once war with nato is fact Ukraine becomes an instant military ally and would open for performing nato operations on Ukrainian territory. Also it removes any objection to Ukraine joining nato since nato would already be at war with russia
You are making too much sense in contrast to this vid and comments.
I’ve been tasked with an audit of this Y.T channel. There seems to be a number of breaches through out your videos with a clear bias of mis- representation & mis-information on behalf of the Ukrainian Military. I will be In touch with further Instructions and all appropriate documentation.
Truly scary, but very much on target. Think of all the historical military disasters that have happened when an enemy did something that was confidently thought to be impossible. Surprise is the most powerful force multiplier in warfare.
Never thought of this option, that's scary.
The Europeans would face no dilemma if they simply spent much more on defense. If they spent much more, they could both help Ukraine aned build up their own defense.
I really admire the people able to watch Puck without getting aggressive !😂
Sure, a wedge between US and Europe within NATO would be a huge prize for RU. If for example RU attempts to force a landbridge to Kaliningrad [via Belarus] and NATO doesn't react unified.
But European naval forces alone can immediately block or threaten to block RU's oil exports from St.Petersburg/Ust Luga by controlling the Kattegat/Skagerrak strait. RU's Baltic Sea navy can't prevent this. This applies to any Russian military adventure into NATO Baltic territory, I think. Given the Kremlin's dependance on oil income, the economic costs seem prohibitive.