Why is Russia bombing civilians?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 มิ.ย. 2024
- Russia's has launched massive missile strikes on Ukraine, and they hit many civilian objects. But it's a mistake to overlook the military objectives and explanations.
0:00 Russia's missile strikes
0:13 Fighter jets and landing ship
1:45 Missile strikes not revenge
2:48 A different approach from last year
4:23 Overwhelming the air defenses
5:55 Ukraine is less vulnerable
6:34 Not only civilian targets
7:11 Complicating damage assessment
8:07 Air defense missiles falling down?
8:45 Missiles shot down
9:02 Electronic jamming
10:19 Hitting the defense industry
11:35 Reasons for Russia's missile campaign
Perun discussed strategic bombing of civilians a while back, and made the salient point that it has never been effective a single time in history. Murdering civilians en masse tends to piss off a population and spur them to fight harder for revenge, not convince them to give up.
Their goal is to deplete scarce AA missiles. They know the west only has so many and won't keep giving to UA. Once UA is out of ammo, they can then strike military targets.
But then even The Telegraph states that: "Russia targets Ukraine’s defence industry as it prepares for a long war." They mention the 2nd of January attack, not a word about civilians.. just doesn't add up
However, by instilling a thirst for revenge in the army and the population they could lead to reckless actions that would give the Russians propaganda ammunition.
So far they haven't fallen into this trap but more this terroristics attacks go on,the population will becomes more angrier.
We must not forget that in the field of propaganda and information the Russians have an overwhelming advantage, a criminal Ukrainian action that has no excuses is enough for the trolls to go into action and it will be more difficult for Western leaders to convince their population that it is right to help Ukraine
It worked against the French in ww2.
@@brendanroberts4866 Hardly. The French suffered a rapid and unprecedented defeat on the battlefield, and the decision to surrender was a political one, not a popular one. Nor did the campaign last long enough for sustained strategic bombing of French cities to occur. It is true that the indiscriminate terror bombing of Belgian cities created a lot of fear for similar attacks against France, but that is the effect of fearing what may come as opposed to being subjected to it.
Regarding battle damage assesment during the V-1 bombing campaign over London the British press only informed about damage caused beyond London's downtown. These press reports made the Germans think that they had overestimated their flying time calculations. V-1s only had an autopilot as guidance system and a timer device that cut the engine off when the flying bomb was supposed to be over the objective.
Once the Germans took the bait V-1s started to fall systematically short of their London target. However, the British had the moral dilemma of exposing London's South Eastern outskirts towns to heavy V-1 bombardment.
Pretty clever use of media reports even if it exposed other parts of the city.
the double agent Eddie Chapman played a role in that. He gave misleading reports to his german handlers.
Ah yes, the good old trolley dilemma.
@@jmdoza3938 Except it's not "choose between letting five people die or killing one person" so much as it's choosing between defending a much bigger, denser, easier target versus a much more sparsely populated target.
Also you're still actively trying to stop the missiles as well. You're not just switching the tracks, you're still trying to derail the train before it even hits anything, all you've done is ensure that it's somewhat less likely to do as much damage as it was already going to _in case_ you fail.
This is a myth created in 'The battle of Britain' movie.
Ander's is spot on about why you won't see pictures of important installations on social media etc. I've lived here for a decade (Ukrainian wife) and way back at the start of the invasion in 2022, the train station of our home town in Donbas, not far from our flat, got hit. I had some pictures, and was going to show some buddies on IRC and my wife accosted me and told me never to do that, or the Russians might find out how well (or bad) they did. But since then I adhere to OPSEC and that's how all us civilians in Ukraine do our bit. E.g. if someone lives in Kyiv or other big city near an air-defence system, you don't take pictures of it and you don't talk about it. The locations are secret for obvious reasons.
Thank you for that tiny insight into why Ukraine will conquer. There can't be a more united nation on the planet.
I wonder why you didn't know that, prior to that incident. Given you've been in Ukraine for so many years, throughout the initial occupation of the east.
Good on your wife. What would we men do, without intelligent women to set us straight.
Thx for the post. I'm glad to hear, that OPSEC is taken seriously in the populace.
The dedication of civilians to do their bit, is why Ukraine will win in the end.
@@soul0360 Indeed. Before the full scale invasion, we didn't have Marshal Law and OPSEC was not a thing I was aware of, (the only action was pot shots across those static front lines in Donbas from 2014 to 22) so it never really crossed my mind not to do dumb things like that once the entire country was affected. The wife quickly straightened me out, haha
It still doesn't make sense to me. Even if 100% of Ukraine keeps perfect OPSEC, don't forget the ruzzians have satellites as well.
We often see satellite pictures of stuff destroyed by Ukraine deep inside ruzzia or on Crimea and discussed in depth.
If the ruzzians had a lot of success destroying Ukrainian military installations, wouldn't they go all rah rah, "see how Patriots are worthless" and wave around their satellite pics all over Twitter? And you can bet your ass that western media would pick it up for the clicks. We'd see at least headlines like "Russia claims to have destroyed XY facility" + sat pics.
For some reason we don't see that, though, but instead see stuft like Ukraine publishing pics of a destroyed hotel or hospital or coffee shop and then ruzzians coming in claiming half a battalion of NATO generals lived there or something.
Thank you very much, Anders. Thanks for telling even about the German Government because Ukrainians really need support and miciells. We want our borders back, we want our sons back, we want a normal life again....
"We want our borders back, we want our sons back, we want a normal life again...." Neither of that is happening, unfortunatley. What you need is change of direction.
@@BannedByMe exactly I want Russians go home ...they have things to do at home
@@BannedByMe "...I for one welcome our new Ruzzian overlords..." - amirite?!
No, ukraine fucked up royaly. You get a regime change and these are no longer your border, people voted and joined russia which it belonged previously.
@@BannedByMeWhat would that be? Becoming a russian puppet?
Cheers for the video, glad you posting more regularly.
Great work as always Anders. Your channel has to be one of the best informed and presented on the war in Ukraine. Social media and esp. TH-cam has so many self-appointed experts on the conflict but they rarely give an unbiased, reasoned and researched argument in my opinion.
and what makes him unbiased? his bold head full of NATO love?
westoids are hilarious
Lol it full of bulshits, propaganda. Russia targeted only military targets, ukraine targeting only civil targets
@@TheBinaryHappiness I guess you're on your own with that opinion.
@@TheBinaryHappiness - sounds like you could do with more humor in your life, glad us westoids can provide. Comedy is hard.
@@war-painter you are a bunch of clowns indeed
On the subject of targets:-
I remember an elderly gentleman, very early in the war, explaining that the bombs were hitting buildings which once were affiliated with some sector of the Ukrainian government.
His general argument was that Russians might be using old maps and information from the days of the USSR.
That is obviously no longer true, but I found his observation very interesting.
Old maps - that is the way US hit Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Some say it was not because outdated maps but because part of wreckage of F-117 were there.
@@BojanPeric-kq9etlmao are you a simp for china?
@@BojanPeric-kq9etone year old account. Lmao stfu
😂 westoids would believe any bullshit about Russia
Certainly outdated information is an issue for the Russians- I recall during the major retreat last year that maps from WWII were found in at least one HQ. Some were shown in video of the site and I immediately recognized them as the same type of old Soviet maps that the Germans re-published for their own use that I have in my collection. And back then the Germans had trouble with the maps being outdated at times.
Thank you for providing some balance, I never considered that jamming could cause an increase in civilian infrastructure hits.
I don't think it changes responsibility for the distruction however, but its certainly helpful for navigating the information space more diligently.
That first drone wave Ukraine sent into Russia was intended for a Russian combat engineer base but Russia jammed the drones and many fell into a rich Moscow suburb. Which many regular Russians actually seemed to find amusing, this pissed off the Russian upper class. But it might have resulted in less jamming by Russia.
The long history of civilian bombing from WWI through the US-Iraq war is that bombing civilian targets does not in any way wear down an enemy's will to fight. In fact, bombing civilian targets usually makes the enemy more angry and determined to fight on. Bombing military assets, weapons caches, headquarters, and radar installations, on the other hand, makes it harder for the enemy to attack and defend. Ukraine's focus on military assets is helping them. Russia's focus on civilian concentrations is hurting the Russians. The power infrastructure bombardment had potential, but fizzled in the end, probably due to a focus on civilian power infrastructure.
However, by forcing UA to spend scarce AA resoures to protect their civs, RU is depleting their stocks quickly. Then they can go after military targets when UA is out of ammo.
@@majungasaurusaaaa Even before UA had all those AA resources, Russia targeted civilian targets over military targets. I think their military strategy training might be antiquated.
@@majungasaurusaaaa Problem is that the Russians are chewing through their stocks at the same time. We've heard that both sides are going to run out of ammunition 'any day now' for the last year or so. Instead the Ukrainians have started employing more Western AA and Russia has expanded it's weapons manufacturing capacity.
The whole thing feels like the Russians just don't know what to do any more. They tried the swift modern warfare combined operation which failed miserably and have then just decided on this all out conventional war which is just going nowhere while chewing up tons and tons of military equipment.
@@majungasaurusaaaa nah, even when Ukraine did not have the level of AAA it had when the invasion started, Russia did not target military objects. They are hitting civilians by choice, not because they lack alternatives.
Well, well, well ... when Russians kill some civilians by its missiles its because they targeted them initially. When Ukranians kill some civilians in Belgorod its just they targeted military objects. Reminds me of that when Russia bombs smth its because they are evil maniacs, when US bombs smth its because they're fighting for freedom and democracy lol 🤣
AGAIN: Interesting analyses. NO ADS.
THUMBS UP for that 👍
¡Gracias!
Very good analysis. I would also like to add that if in putin wants to look strong and in control, he should make a video of himself Shirtless riding a missile down to it's target while waving a cowboy hat and yelling Yahoo! like Slim Pickins in the movie Dr. Strangelove. Now, that was a really strong role model.
no way dude...just YESTERDAY i pointed out these things to my social bubble and i was looked at like iam loosing my mind..i also commented on the video made by Silicon Curtain about this and my comment was deleted..having this video will help me so much..thank you
Get a better “social bubble”. ;)
He doesn't delete. It's utube's AI automatically deleting msg that have certain words along with other words. That's why I often use synonyms and shorten some words.
@@pansepot1490 might be a problem of our own propaganda painting a picture that all russians fighting the war are evil monsters eating children for dinner and also dumb, drunk, and incompetent.. it leads to underestimating them which is not helpfull because it makes our people and maybe also politicians think, that Ukraine will be able to win easily, therefore there is less urgency delivering the support...also, if they are so dumb how come we are on day 680 of the war..yea i know russia have numbers, but still..
Excellent commentary.
I had not looked at the situation the way you describe but it makes solid sense. Thanks Anders.
The analysis can't be faulted and Anders is as usual spot on.
However one should still not forget, that if it was not for Russias attacks in the first place, then there would not be jammed or damaged missiles falling on Ukrainian cities.
If not for Zelensky' cockiness and US "help" there would be no war either.
One should understand that USA/NATO engineered the proxy war by shipping in massive amounts of munitions, starting around 2014. RAND is our #1 war think tank.... “Over-Extending and Unbalancing Russia” www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB10000/RB10014/RAND_RB10014.pdf
@@BojanPeric-kq9et Keep losing russian CLOWN.
@@BojanPeric-kq9et Putin cockiness. Fixed it for you.
Russia should stay inside Russia! And with so many Russian deaths (plus economic consequences) it’s difficult to understand why; Russia (according to Russia’s own war propaganda) doesn't just open its doors to anyone who wants to relocate to Russia (whilst leaving Ukraine well alone)?
Of course (we the West) know the answers to this questions: It’s because cocky Putin is ordering Russia to launch an Imperial Conquest (even though it’s long term legacy is to weaken Russia before all the world -especially China & the West).
Ukraine needs to make disabling these production factories and absolute priority
NATO in those bldings bro. Thats why NATzo have a big meeting this week to discuss those deaths.
Those NATO children and toddlers...
😮
Thank you.
Anders, your material is absolutely must-see. Your balance, objectivity and insight are just second to none. Your subtle hints at what should be done - brilliant!
Thanks as always for a calm and insightful analysis. Not afraid to go against popular opinion- a breath of fresh air on click- and outraged focused social media 🙏🏼
Your videos are always helpful. Thanks.
Always helpful, thank you.
Great analysis as always. Mange tak!
I have a strong suspicion that many non-expert have an idea that successful missile defense systems obliterate their target, as in a popular video game. Missile defense doesn't "cure", it reduces harm. And sometimes it just causes different kinds of harm. I personally wouldn't want to within 10 miles of a successful air defense strike. The shrapnel field must be enormous.
Good analysis
Thank you for your insightful analysis.
@@radovan739 What of it is fake? Be specific.
Thanks for the video, Anders. Always appreciate your content.
Thank you for the clear-eyed, neutral, and insightful analysis.
Neutral?😂😂😂
@@yurichtube1162 Pro-tip: Three emojis is not a compelling counterargument.
Sorry but Russian missiles, when hypothetically jammed, do not seem to crash down randomly. It is probabilistically impossible for jammed missiles to keep hitting maternities, schools, supermarkets, hotels, etc.
As for debris from intercepted missiles, it keeps falling over major cities where industrial facilities, military or otherwise, are rarely located.
Lol russia targeted only military targets, ukraine targeting civils targets most of the time like new year. What you said it happend because ukraine air defens shot down russian missles or lotf of time ukrainen missles hit these buildings
Anders, you’re a great communicator!
Very interesting Anders, Thank you!
I am a veteran of the war in ex-Yugoslavia. Before that, I was a soldier of the Yugoslav People's Army. At that time, we were all required to be soldiers for 18 months. There I gained knowledge and skills that later helped me to survive the real war and the aggression that started from Serbia. Since the former YPA was strictly based on the Soviet military industry, they also inherited the military doctrine of warfare. Soviet doctrine does not mean only endless attacks with artillery and/or flesh. Their doctrine also includes the "abuse" (terrorizing) of the civilian population. It is a medieval doctrine and strategy of destroying the local population in order to make a part of the country less attractive and inhospitable. In that theory (and also in practice), the destroyed and depopulated regions would be settled by another population. And this is something that we can trace from the Middle Ages (perhaps even before) to the end of the Second World War. Namely, even in World War II, the Allies mercilessly bombed German cities in the hope that this would destroy the morale of the local population. Of course, the effect was always reversed. With the development of technology, the west turned to precision strikes on important targets to gain a strategic/tactical advantage in war. Russia stopped developing technologically in the mid-seventies. For this reason, they did not even change the war doctrine.
Everything that is happening in Ukraine today is a literal copy of the events in ex-Yugoslavia. The reasons for the war are the same, the tactics of the aggressors are the same, the weapons are the same... The only difference is that my country has been banned from importing weapons and drones are used in war today.
So, each of our successes on the battlefield was accompanied by revenge on cities and civilians. In a way, I felt safer at the front than in the rear. Therefore, the Russians follow their doctrine of warfare. Mass bombing of civilians to undermine morale (doesn't work) and mass front line attacks with live flesh that produce limited results with horrendous casualties.
Let's hope this madness stops soon.
You lie. The Yugoslav army did not serve for 18 months, but 12 + 3. The arms embargo on the import of weapons was valid for all the republics of the former Yugoslavia, with the fact that Serbia was the most armed because most of the weapons of the Yugoslav army ended up in the hands of Serbs.
It was NATO that implemented the arms embargo favoring Serbia, which took over most of the arms of the Yugoslav Army.
The war in the territory of the former Yugoslavia cannot be compared with the current war in Ukraine, which is a communist creation, just like Yugoslavia was, and since 2014, Ukraine no longer exists, just like Yugoslavia ceased to exist in 1991.
In the early 1980s, I served in the Yugoslav army and in the early 1990s I fought in the Croatian army and I saw all kinds of things. Not about that now.
And if you're going to see what bombing with democratic bombs looks like, look at what Iraq's Fallujah and Syria's Raqqa looked like.
You're right. I made a mistake. Compulsory military service was changed from 18 months to 12 + 3 by the reform of the YPA in the early eighties. Second: democratic bombs do not exist and I oppose any aggression, Russian, Chinese, American... You name it... Don't forget to name Serbian aggression at all Neighbouring Countries. Include Montenegro, where Serbia committed political aggression.
The war in Ukraine is a copy of the Yugoslav war for the reason that it started in the same way: Serbia wanted to become Greater Serbia, and Putin wants the USSR again. Serbia engaged the Serbian minority in Croatia for this. Like Russia, which engaged the Russian minority in Ukraine. When the USSR collapsed, Ukraine was the first to declare independence. When handing over nuclear weapons to Russia, the latter undertook to guarantee the independence and integrity of Ukraine. Putin did not keep his word. So exactly the same as the Serbs in Yugoslavia who trampled on every contract they signed. 2014 Russia occupied part of Ukraine. Democratic occupation does not exist like democratic bombs. In short, any aggression is reprehensible. Every attacked country has the right to defend itself.@@antebratincevic6764
@@adamderbent6986 You continue to blatantly manipulate using half-truths that are more effective for manipulation than active lies.
You referred to the Soviet style of killing civilians. First there are no Soviets now, Russians are not Soviets as you are not Yugoslav.
Second, I mentioned Falluja and Raqqa as a style of killing civilians because you wrote that the Soviets have their way of mass killing people. American's style in killing civilians is a way more effective then Sovit's style.
If there were civilian casualties from Russian missiles, it was due to the actions of the NATO proxy anti-aircraft defense. In addition, in the last week, more civilians were killed in Donetsk, Gorlovka and Belgorod than in the territory controlled by the NATO proxy.
Since 2014, more than 800 children have been killed in the Donbas region alone by the bombing of the Ukrainian army.
There were elements of aggression and civil war in Croatia, because you cannot talk about aggression if people whose families have lived in the same city for hundreds of years go to war. If you are going to talk about aggression, then Croatia also committed aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina because Croatian army from Croatia, cities and villages hundreds of kilometers away were killing native Serbs in the villages of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Now is neither the time nor the place to talk about the causes of the war in the former Yugoslavia. Simply put, the Serbs in Croatia demanded veto rights under the 1974 constitution, and the Croats demanded the borders of the Republic of Croatia under the same constitution. Not about that now.
The West under the leadership of the Americans at the beginning of the war supported Yugoslavia with Serbian domination until Croatia collapsed economically in 1994 and then Tuđman privatized all public banks and handed over the Croatian National Bank to the global mafia and Croatia and Croats have been debt slaves ever since. All this so that the liberation of Croatia from America would be politically, informationally, logistically and financially supported.
For example, the Americans stole the Ukrainian Central Bank from the Ukrainians in 2014. The day after the coup in Ukraine in 2014, all the gold was taken from the Ukrainian Central Bank.
Hollande and Merkel publicly stated that the Minsk peace accords were never intended to be implemented and that it was merely buying time for Ukraine to arm itself.
You don't live in reality because you don't understand that Ukraine is not Croatia, nor Serbia is not Russia.
And finally, every country has the right to defend itself, but Ukraine as a country no longer exists, as does Yugoslavia. These are facts, no matter how long you live in the illusion. Some still think that Yugoslavia will be resurrected.
Thank you, Adam, that is very interesting. I knew that Russians and Serbs have a lot in common, but warfare too!
IIRC, the Russians scorched their own country to deny Napoleon’s army any chance to survive. They even burned Moscow (although that’s never been conclusively proven).
Yes, jamming is to blame for civilian infrastructure getting destroyed.
The jammers in Syria were so strong that all the hospitals got evaporated.
Yeah Russia bombs indiscriminately, sad.
🙄🙄🙄😳🤨
Thanks for your excellent and insightful videos last year. Looking forward to your creative and informative videos in 2024. Best wishes
Thank you for the even-handed analysis.
He's a propagandist, wake up.
@@MoonlightVKV Very persuasive.
I don't need to persuade people, but to tell the truth@@Seytom
@@MoonlightVKV Failing on both counts, but carry on.
I mean, if you don't have a brain what's the point right? Ha, i see that's the case, but even then, people that can see through this low quality scheme can see it.@@Seytom
A valid point. Thanks for sharing this with us. 👍
Thanks for the video! Wish more academics would participate in public debates through a personal TH-cam channel.
A lot of academics, experts, journalists use Twitter to “participate in public discourse”. Or at least they used to.
A TH-cam channel needs more resources and time.
Great video, as usual. Don't forget that Ukraine has distributed their power generation capabilities in a BIG way, with many more smaller power generation points, spread out over a wide area. This makes the entire grid less vulnerable.
Apparently the Taurus cruise missile is more capable than the Storm Shadow/Scalp missile and would be capable of destroying the Crimean bridge. So the answer to the question why Germany refuses to give it to the Ukrainians is probably the same as the answer to why the USA are not giving weapons capable of destroying that bridge to Ukraine.
At this point it seems rather clear that the western Allies don't want Ukraine to destroy that bridge.
The ukrainian would like to see a russian over reaction to draw Nato into the conflict. Western countries want to avoid wwiii. That is way long range missiles are not provided. But the danger is still around the corner...
The western allies don't want to get directly implicated in the attacks.
Thank you for this great information.
You come across as the nicest person on You tube. i am a big fan and love your concise interpretations.
Thank you, Anders Puck Nielsen, for your analysis. Highly appreciated.
🇺🇦 Заради життя кожного українця! 🇺🇦
You are a fool
Regardless of whether the civilian objects were targets or collateral, if Russia were not an aggressive invader these civilians would not be injured.
Problem is that NATO is invader.
This logic can be expanded to the reasons why Russia felt the need to carry out the SMO.
@@diangara3298 No it cannot, because the reasons for Russias war are in Order of Importance: Imperialism.
Thats it.
@diangara3298 no reason to answer to an idiot who calls this war still SMO. Drawn in your own propaganda orc.
@@meinnase American or Russian?
Thanks. You make some good points.
Great analysis as always!
Nonsense
@@yurichtube1162 Your argument is nonsense.
Hi Anders DW just reported that North Korean missiles have been used against Ukraine in the latest attacks. It means of cause that the Russian stockpile is bigger than anticipated.
Thanks for you insightful analysis. Question: Do you have any reliable numbers on how many Tanks, APVs, Artillery, MLRS, AA Systems, Planes, Helicopters that Russia is capable of producing (either new or restored) each month currently? Thanks!
Planes and helicopters: Zero. Nada.
Artillery: Can buy unlimited amounts from North Korea.
Tanks: Not enough to change the war.
Drones: a fuck lot.
Very informative. Thanks a lot.
Thanks fo sharing your expertise through your video reports. Very informative!
By the way, jamming works against satellite navigation but it doesn't work against inertial navigation.
Inertial navigation is VERY inaccurate, the deviations builds up exponentially. However, modern missiles and drones have vision-based navigation (using pattern matching and computer vision algorithms)
@@chankhavu are you sure your data are up to date? They are not perfect, but I doubt "very" part, especially considering that it can be used only for limited time close to hitting a target.
We should be able to calculate the chance of missiles hitting any given target - Missiles hit a church, school or hospital? What percentage of the area is taken up by those kind of structures and by that calculation, how often would they be struck if the missiles did hit completely randomly vs how often they're actually hitting those targets. Statistically speaking, if missiles fell randomly over cities, they'd be hitting roads and streets something like 30% of the time, but I don't think that's the case.
You’re imagining the missiles are being dropped directly from above, when that isn’t the case. Missiles coming in at an angle have a near-zero chance of hitting a street in a city, buildings get in the way. That said, why were missiles targeted (presumably) dozens of miles away from military bases/stockpiles? I notice there are almost no big fireballs or ammo cookoffs in Ukraine after these strikes.
Would be very interesting if one could get a record of missile landing points. However Ukraine probably also has motive to obscure non-target hits as much as possible so Russia is also unable to perform that same calculation, and news reports can't really be used for it as 'Ballistic missile obliterates local shrubbery' doesn't make for the most stimulating headlines.
@@f0rdgamer you're absolutely right about that angle!
As always, a nuanced and professional video!
Thank you for this vid
We saw manufacturing dates of the missiles of q4 2023. which means those reserves are gone. the current attacks seem more an act of desperation than anything else.
Reserves were gone last fall at least Ukranian propaganda was persistently telling us so. Now all of a sudden there are some more. And now you're telling this again "reserves are gone" lol. Next year you're gonna tell: " reserves are REALLY REALLY gone'" ? 🤣
The fact that they keep fighting this utterly pointless war they started after so much death is an act of desperation.
Manufacturing data on missiles from the Russian regime can be as bogus as just about anything else from the Russian regime.😁
@@saltzkruber732 You may call it whatever you like: desperation or desecration or consumation, objective reality is not affected by your words at all and this is the fact.
@@alexpoetov3213 They were right, since Russia had to stop shooting missiles for more than half a year just to have enough reserves for the winter. Kyiv wasn't hit for months in the summer, and even when bombing Romania, khm Odesa they used mainly cheap shahed drones
Is it because normal pornography just doesn't do it for Putin anymore?
Godt gået Anders. Fedt at høre en neutral analyse fra en militær ekspert. Way to go - please keep up the brilliant analyses.
Anders Puck er da ikke neutral, han er officer i "NATO". Alt bliver biased imod Rusland eller for Ukraine. Jeg bebrejder naturligvis ikke nogen for at holde med Ukraine, men neutralt det er det ikke her.
I agree.
Neutral? lol
Det var så dagens grin, tak for det :D
Neutral - må jeg være fri haha
@@AJSrbin Hvordan var han ikke neutral?
Thanks for adding to my knowledge of known unknowns.
Anders! Huge fan of your videos. I suggest you start uploading in 4k - not for the resolution, but for the increased bitrate. TH-cam heavily compresses 1080p compared to 4k, and even the same 1080p video will look much better in TH-cam's 4k.
On top of that, by forcing Ukraine tondefend population centres, they are stretching air defence assets.
It's Russia not Ruzzia. Or do you believe you are being clever 🙄
@@TheBarondeFreynewhat the fuck are you talking about? No one here mentioned russia.
I also suspect that Russia is targeting cities & civilian targets not specifically to cause terror or destroy the will of the Ukrainian people, but to present Ukraine with a dilemma.
That is, Ukraine has a limited number of air defence systems, it needs to decide what possible targets to prioritise for those systems.
By attacking cities and civilian targets Russia forces Ukraine to spread it's defenses out to defend civilians instead of just defending military installations.
No they aren't, nobody is wasting 10 million a pop missles on playgrounds. It's just that our info gets filtered by two heavily biased sources. First the Ukraine government which made it literally illegal to show proof of successful Russian strikes(this is democracy at work guys) and also the American media which is funded by the military industrial complex who are happy to only report that Russia accidentally hit a civilian space rather than question why we've never once seen proof of a Ukraine mil factory being hit even after thousands of missles. It's all media warfare, same thing happened with "our friends in afghanistan". The propaganda was a lie from the start and anyone who reported truthfully on it was persecuted. Same war.
Go home and drink Vodka Ruski.
@@user-lf2jh2ru9f nope, serba na verbu
@@user-lf2jh2ru9f Do you know what a whataboutism is? You just commited one. The topuc is Russia attacks civilians which is a breach of international law.
@@user-lf2jh2ru9fSerbia was given an ultimatum !! Yes or no...
As always, a very interesting commentary.
English point: Damage from bombardment is used as an uncountable noun. To seek financial damages in plural probably comes from totalling different compensation categories in a process.
Thank you for the rational analysis, KD Nielsen. It's definitely good not to be too hasty in drawing conclusions from ambiguous information.
BTW, I wonder whether you were feeling unwell when you recorded this video. If so, I hope you're feeling better by now and, if not, get well soon!
What do you think on economics? Why is the combined West (incl Japan, South Korea) with an economy 20x the size of Russia not able to just pour in as many resources as necessary to give the Ukraine a real advantage. Why is the west so hesitant?
War is not yet in the West
Most parts of the west are democratic, and while the support of Ukraine in the populations was overwhelming at the start of the conflict, it has dwindled. And while rationally the arguments against further support of Ukraine (like „why are you sending money to another country while we have our own problems“) are rationally questionable, emotionally they work very well. Take the republicans in the US f.E., they don’t oppose further support for Ukraine just for fun, but because they hope to gather votes from it. While democracy is preferable to autocracy and dictatorships overall, it certainly has a problem with long term tasks that are not popular with the simple demos. Problems that autocracies like Putins Russia do not face as much.
In the end, it leads to a lacklustre support for Ukraine by the west, because western politicians fear that such a support is unpopular with the demos. Maybe they’re right, maybe not, but it is most likely the motivation for the western politicians
@@gwendolinkirkegaard1812 does it mean autocracy countries will win?
Ukraine and Russia signed agreement to cease fire in Spring 2022, but Boris Johnson encouraged Ukraine to fight Russia further.
Because it's not Russia's fault. USA is warmonger. Ukraine just cannon fodder for USA proxy war against Russia. USA wants ti make Russia and EU weaker.
EU politicians are just USA puppets...
Actually, Russia is defending own state safety against NATO expansion and warned Ukraine, USA and NATO about invasion for several months before it if they won't stop crossing the red lines.
@@user-lc9pt4kn9z good question. We will see.
Autocracies have an advantage some times because they are not as volatile in their aims and decisions as democracies are. However, in the long run they tend to perform much worse in nearly every aspect of society, and are in addition more prone to revolutions (at least in comparison to consolidated democracies. New democracies can be extremely fragile, but I’m not talking about those). So while autocracies might have an advantage in wartimes, they tend to loose in peacetimes. That does not mean that democracies are always peaceful (the US are the best example for that), but they tend do to better during peace times than autocracies.
Thanks for your voice of reason
Thanks, Anders, for getting these things out in the public domain. It helps understand why Europe needs to step up military wise, and why we need to commit to international missions - e.g. by sending a frigate to the Red Sea.
The German gov says so about Taurus either because the missile is falling behind in terms of actual capabilities or because they dont have that many of them.
In both cases it's disturbing.
The opposite is true. Taurus has more capable navigation systems, longer range, and is especially apt at destroying structures like bridges.
Couple things
1-low inventories among donors nations
2-increased use leads to additional data that allows for countermeasures or countermeasure tactics
3-Ukrainians have used many western weapons outside its intended use leading to poor than one would at first believe.
SAAB was one of the contractors, so it definitely meets the capabilities set for it.
Its about stocks and keeping it away from the Russians.
Nah, there's just a faction in the government that still has cold feet about getting "more involved" in attacks on Russia. They worry that Ukraine will use Taurus's long range to attack Russian territory. Also, any targeting data for the missiles would have to be supplied by Germany, for technical reasons. This is mostly coming from the SPD. The two other coalition partners (Greens and FDP) are open to sending the missiles.
Or they just don't say they are delivering them..... war is a game of deceiving the enemy.
Thanks again Anders, another excellent video. I think many of us see very biased news of drone attacks on apartment buildings, and don't realise that the original target was often military. This war has become a war of missile costs, anti missile costs & above all intercept probabilities. Civilian casualties are inevitable but not necessarily the point of Russia's missile war.
And this is why FPV drones are so effective - it's a cost/benefit equation where the disbenefit of losing a tank to a $500 drone means that even a 1% chance of getting through is a huge win. It doesn't matter how many tanks or recruits Russia has, so long as the cost of eliminating each of them is hundreds of dollars. Suspect this is why attack is almost never 'worth it' now. And why Ukraine's best policy is aggressive defense - Putin needs results and this might well be his undoing.
It seems like it is easy for you to assume the Russians are striking military targets without any evidence. They obviously and undeniably have attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure. So try to remember that when you are deciding what the original target "often" was.
They sure do get a lot of direct hits on center of civilian targets for it being 'random' strikes from intercepted missiles.
Russia targeted only military targets like every military. Ukraine targeting civils most of the time.
Like always, I feel at school again, Anders. Mange tak fra Holland.
Thanks!
I don't watch tv i need videos like this to keep me sane, good video!
Absolutely Russia is hitting military targets inside Ukraine, we shouldn't expect Ukraine to admit there was damage to something beyond civilian homes and infrastructure.
Listening to Paul US Combat Vet Thursday evening about the likelihood that North Korea and Iran are having Russia use their ballistic missiles to get real use data on how they perform since launching something from North Korea or Iran for testing purposes gets a lot of attention, would that be the case in just hitting soft targets to instill constant fear in the populations of the outlying communities but also data in testing DPRK designs while saving the better designed more accurate ones from Russia and Iran for more important targets inside Ukraine?
OTOH, ruzzia has its own satellites. They don't need undisciplined Ukrainian civilians posting photos. They could just wave their own sat pics around on Twitter and go "see, Patriots are trash".
Instead, we see Ukraine posting pics of some hotel or kindergarten that has been destroyed and then Lavrow or someone claiming it was a NATO headquarters, making him look like some stupid fool. If they had a lot of success hitting military targets, they'd make sure the west knew about it. Just for bragging rights about how their missiles are better than western air defense alone.
We see sat pics of things Ukraine manages to destroy in Crimea or even deep inside ruzzia all the time.
I would say a few things talks against Russian munition being jammed and hitting civilian targets, sure there are probably very few cases. My point, the Russian history of warfare speaks against mistakes targeting civilians i.e. the second Chechen war when Russia totally flattened Chechen cities like Grozny. Then of course looking back to WW2 but it lies in Russian mentality to simply subdue civilians as they have done in Russia the past 500 yrs. Moreover if you look at how Russian artillery hammer Ukrainian cities and have done since the invasion I think that shows that the Russians deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure. As for EW, sure but imo that is minimal, Russia is using WW2 doctrine of terror because that is how Russia is and how they treat others.
As for the amount, well that is also part of old Soviet doctrine, Russia has always been about quantity and less about quality and for Russia sending crap is just fine with them and not seen like a waste put part of exhausting their opponent. The West will never as a collective understand Russia, there are a few Westerners that truly understands Russia and it's all in their history and the social heritage, Russia can only understand one thing and that is force and submission.
As long as "we" and the Ukrainians don't bring the fight to Russia they will keep "throwing" missiles and drones over the border and hope they hit something of value or at least break the will of the West to support Ukraine.
Only a fool or a Serf will think or advocate that Russia will stop with Ukraine, read Russian history and think once more.
Anders, I know you're knowledgeable and know of Russian history to some extent also familiar with Russian doctrine but I think you give Russia a bit too much credit, however I love your channel and your videos, so keep it up.
Yup.
I like how you wrote "there are a few Westerners that truly understands Russia" and kept extensively discoursing about Russian history and mentality lol 😂
@@alexpoetov3213History speaks for itself bro, Stalin said a million deaths is a statistic and for russians it is
@@alexpoetov3213
Well, history is key to understanding. If you don't dig into history on a subject you will never understand it fully.
It's not "discoursing" it's a fact and ask yourself why Russia distort history, it's because they understands the importance and what change it can make if people really understand.
So do you have something substantial to add to my post or is it just the regular Russian BS?
@@saltzkruber732 "Stalin said a million deaths is a statistic and for russians it is" And an American said: "4 mln Vietnamese killed ? Are u kidding me ? Never heard of that !"
The lack of holes in roads, fields, bike sheds, parking lots, random low traffic/density buildings, etc suggest to me that the "jamming to random locations" must be pretty low. And the civilians buildings we see hit are typically larger than the CEP rating of the weapon system. So they clearly select those for a quite high percentage of what they send.
Godt nytår til dig🎉
Altid godt at høre fra dig både her og på TV.
Mon vi finder ud af om de fik ram på Gerasimov?
It doesn’t matter if it’s debris or the rocket itself that inflicts damage, what are the Russian rockets doing there. If they didn’t shoot there wouldn’t be damage!
Thank you for the video
Re: electronic warfare... jamming cannot interfere with inertial navigation (nor anything visually guided). GPS jamming reduces the accuracy of these things but will not cause them to just drop out of the sky.
Anders, thanks for the analysis, I have an unrelated question that I hope you will comment on. My question is, what would it take to decisively destroy the Kerch bridge, that is, damage it (or them, both spans) so the Russians wouldn't be able to repair it any time soon. Thanks again.
I love your balanced and informative explanation, Anders. Thanks for that.
Ballanced??? Anders is part of NATO.
Lol balanced.
The analysis can't be faulted and Anders is as usual spot on.
However one should still not forget, that if it was not for Russias attacks in the first place, then there would not be jammed or damaged missiles falling on Ukrainian cities.
So one should be very careful about this type of otherwise true explanation, because it kind of plays Putins tune, of its not really Russias fault, Ukraine could simply just top attempting to intercept the missiles that Russia are using. So basically blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties in Ukrainian cities.
Obviously that is a completely unacceptable stance to have, but that do not stop propagandists.
Spot on! That's what the presenter totally failed to accentuate. Another aim of bombing civilians is to break their will und make them beg the Ukrainean government to give in and so to put an end to bombing. His analysis is way go superficial.
Analysis based on assumptions and guesswork because there is not enough data until the war is over. This confirmation made also vatniks happy.
I agree. It's irresponsible to give vatniks any kind of hope.
Any time they say "the most missiles ever" as if they weren't throwing everything they had in random directions and probably ran out of missiles now. @@pacifist9805
He isnt saying that ukraine is responsible or that its on ukraine to stop using ev, he is simply pointing it out. It would be foolish for ukraine to stop using ev, everyone knows that it would mean ukraine would loose if they stopped.
And russia does the same, its just war, whoever wins have lost less, all wars are in a way attrition.
@@radovan739 Do you believe that Ukraine bombed Belgorod city with Czech Grad rockets?
Regarding the assumption that Russian drones are primarily targeting military targets. I can add my observations as a resident of Ukraine, the city of Odessa. Over the past six months, we have actually had quite a lot of drone hits on civilian infrastructure (schools, residential buildings, churches, and so on). The hits occurred mainly at night and very close to the city center. But the fact is that in the center of Odessa there are practically no military facilities (such as military factories, military units or air defense). All such facilities are located 20-30 km outside the city. In addition, when a missile or drone causes serious damage to military infrastructure, you can often notice a lot of smoke and detonation of the shells tens of kilometers from the impact. Nothing like this was observed in Odessa. More precisely, since the beginning of the war there have been a couple of hits in a fuel storage facility and in a seaport. But these two hits account for 20-30 hits in residential buildings, shopping centers, churches and schools.
And it even seems to me that if we calculate the cost of drones and especially missiles launched in Odessa (about 70% are shot down by our air defense on approach), then their total cost will exceed the cost of the damaged infrastructure. Therefore, I don’t think that there is any military purpose in these bombings of cities, it’s more like an act of terrorism with the aim of psychological pressure on the civilians. Unlike Russia, the opinion of citizens in Ukraine can seriously influence the behavior of our politicians, so Russia is trying to use this lever.
As a resident of Odessa, can you deal with people who film your anti-air missiles making that meme curve and hitting civilian buildings? Cuz that footage being available really doesn't help your case.
Also your supposedly civilian buildings inside the city detonate after drone hits quite often, like that shopping center, or that another shopping center, or that other shopping center. Why's that? You say that it wasn't observed, but again, the footage is online, may be you do something about those spies?
Also, 70% of the missiles being shot down is straight out of your propaganda. Why not 100%? You can say that that ammunition storage destroyed the missile, it is factually true.
Opinion of the citizens can influence the behavior of your politicians. Yeah, I agree, that's why Zelenskiy cancelled the elections, lol.
Great analysis from someone who knows about military tactics.
Tak Anders, every video is a banger and your consistency is remarkable. Now if only we can get our elected officials to watch you too 😐
However, if the missiles were not fired in the first place there would not be a risk to civilian collateral damage/injury/death.
There is no justification for this war and the effecting has had in Ukraine
Spot on Anders
🗣️ Superb insight. Keep'em coming 😎👍🏾.
It's what russia does, simple as.
It's what the media filtered by Ukraine's propaganda machine and then the western propaganda machine feeds to you. They lie by omission.
Brutta cosa quando si é accecati dall'ignoranza instillata nella mente da altri, si é incapaci di un ragionamento indipendente e si é incapaci di vedere più in là del proprio naso. Una vita monca.
how profound@@virginiosavani
Whilst Russia may target some military facilities with missiles , there is literal footage of their tanks raising their barrels higher and shooting upper floors of apartment buildings in Mariupol (one example of many). They have deliberately targeted civilians and debating it is pointless .
You are too ignorant to grasp the idea of city battle when an antitank crew usually tries to get a high ground to provide more observation. And the best way to do it within the city borders is to locate such a crew in upper floors of buildings thus when you see a tank shooting on the buildings it means it is targeting hostile troops there. The same thing is happening right now in Gaza. Are you really that dumb to beileve that any civilians would stay in the building high above while the hell let loose underneath ? Sometimes one needs to use one's brain for thinking not for just absorbing propaganda.
An example would be from Mariupol where a journalist filmed from inside a hospital several russian tanks doing just that
@@churchy4202 i literally seen a drone hit a house next door in Odesa. It's far from frontlines and my friends live there. There was no troops. We KNOW, because we SEE that russia ALWAYS targets civilians. Deliberately. Don't spit on our mind, you pathetic propagandist.
@@churchy4202I didn’t misspell anything .
@@churchy4202You misspelled the part where it doesn't matter where those Ukrainian soldiers are fighting from, those Russian soldiers shouldn't even be there in the first place.
🇺🇦🌻🇦🇺🐨 Anders thank for your time and analysis
Ukraine is losing. You believe in lies.
Excellent commentary as always, sir. Though I'm a little disappointed you didn't bring up the eggs 😆
It is telling that hitting enemy civilian targets is so popular in russia.
In the west millitary actions agains enemy civilian objects are very controversial and generally cause a lot of pushback from the population.
Also what high priority millitary targets find themselves in high density city centers far from the front lines? I don't know but it seems to me that logistic and command centers closer to the front lines are far higher priority and much more valuable targets for the russian millitary. This would be a far better use for the limited amount of missiles the have available..
"It is telling that hitting enemy civilian targets is so popular in Russia". That is why state press always tries to explain it were not Russian missiles hitting that civilian objects or that hits were accidental. Anders is such a great brainwasher if you believe it so easily.
Excellent video, as usual. Surely Ukraine's best strategy is to concentrate as much as possible on the resupply of these weapons to the Russians. I guess that the majority of the production facilities will be as far as possible from the front lines, but then they have to be transported to distribution points and then to the firing areas. The West's ridiculous fear about possible escalation if Ukraine attacks targets inside Russia does mean that their options are limited to these last two areas.
Good video.
It must be difficult for someone who is the polar opposite of petty to get into the mindset of just how petty the Russians are.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict isn't some sterile geopolitical issue. This is an ancient blood feud playing out with modern weaponry
Quite the opposite. It is very much about geopolitics. Or it is not about geopolitics, as much as Cuban missile crisis was local "incident".
Russians are not petty, they are trying to achieve their goals with available assets. You know, just like US intentionally target journalists.
@@BojanPeric-kq9et I guess the genocide, rape, looting, and castration of POWs is just geopolitics
The US does not target journalists. Not only is it morally wrong, it's a waste of ammunition resulting in inefficient warfare that hampers the goals of the warfare to begin with
Its both. The politicians certainly have their interests and all, but orders are carried out by commanders, soldiers, a large chain of command of people that ultimately can tweak the strategy. And politicians have their ego too, especially Putin
@@fungunsun1Politicians have sex scandals too. History says that even that can be powerful motive with long lasting consequences.
Anders, kudos for your comprehensive historical synopsis of the rational, strategies, and objectives of Russia's bombardment campaign. That campaign has failed. Russia's missile and drone attacks have culminated in failure to realize any of its three objective. On the contrary, Ukraines air defenses have grown more resilient, its defense industry more productive, and its political influence strengthened. Moreover, in the last week, Ukraine has adopted Russia's three-objective strategy for its own bombardment campaign.That campaign has not failed. It has succeeded beyond all exceptions. And, it has debunked the handwringing and doomsaying of all of useful idiots who have swallowed the Koolade of Putin's delusional "invincible Russia" propaganda.
Good one, interesting sort of underlines Meno’s paradox
Surprisingly consistently on the mark.
I'd also suggest some other reasons...
1. Ukraine is probably getting better at hiding military targets. Moving, deception, decoys, false intelligence, etc. Many systems are probably highly mobile.
2. Russian intelligence probably isn't so good.
3. Russian intelligence, communications, planning, systems, etc. probably can't react fast enough. More over since they need to saturate air defenses, they can't deal with smaller moving targets. Thus, they aim at things which can't be moved which is typically now civilian.
4. US signals intelligence is probably so go that even if Russia identifies a good military target, Ukraine is probably warned in time to move or defend it.
5. Russia has been taking noticeable losses in the air and at significant distances from the front lines due to newer long-ranged western weapons used in Ukraine. This is now forcing Russia to deploy weapons from further away. This gives more time, warning, etc. plus it makes planning such attacks harder -- longer ranged weapons are need, etc.
6. Russia is likely running out of pre-war military targets. Most airfields, military buildings, etc. hard probably already been hit. Russia is now more uncertain if these are not being reoccupied, fixed, which new places Ukraine is using, etc.
I think much of this is technical and Russia is just finding it harder and hard to find and hit military targets so it's aiming at more static fixed targets.
No references, no analyses, no proof, just I think. I bet you were amoung the superspcialsts claiming Russia is fighting with shovels 2 years ago
No analyses, no proof, no reference - just I think, pure graphomania. I bet you were amoung the superspcialsts writing that - I think Russia is fighting with shovels a year ago
Your comment is so dumb
Hello Anders, thank you for the consice analysis 😊
You mentioned that allies "struggle" to support Ukraine. Why is that?
Not enough production capacity?
Not taken the war seriously enough?
Intentional protraction of the war to bleed Russia longterm?
Lack of support of the population for support of Ukraine?
Internal politics?
All of the above. Inertia, incompetence, infighting.
Probably the greatest shortage is a lack of statesmen (or women) who will say why an existential threat to Ukraine matters to everyone else and will then explain why a noticeable percentage of our GDP needs to support Ukraine.
So keep watching upvoting and commenting, maybe the algorithm will get these videos to a wide enough audience.
No production and political will.