The Brutal Decline of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Feels like a video update is in order.
What a ridiculous video.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr is only 24 years old!!!!! How can you name a video a brutal decline when the MLB player career is still in it's infancy!? Guerrero Jr still made all star
still cracked 26 homers with .264/.345/444 line.
The Blue Jays also lost Marcus Semien who was good protection in the lineup for Guerrero Jr.
The dude is still only 24 year old. Wait another 3 years before you call his decline.
Not aging well
@@CGYBLACKBEAR The season is not even one month old. I love to hear the reactionaries react
Settle down. He's 24.
Exactly my thoughts. Dude just needed a video idea.
Fr
Why must you emphasizes the last word in every SENTENCE !!!!!😂😂 great vid though I just couldn’t stop hearing it
I like this channel, but this video doesn’t need to exist. Vlad Jr. is 24. Sometimes a guy slumps for a few years once the League scouting report gets around, and they haven’t matured past it yet.
He'll be fine. Its so obvious how good his bat skills are just from watching him. This game is mental, I believe he's not comfortable right now and is trying to make adjustments for stuff that doesn't need adjusting.
agreed. he's got a lot more pressure than the usual (looks at Pops, lovingly) the title of this is a little overboard. He'll figure it out.
He's been "adjusting" for four out of five major league seasons.
@@warlordofbritannia All the while performing above league average in his early 20s.
This is exactly what I've been telling people around me; even "bad" Guerrero is actually a good hitter when you look at him objectively.
I'm honestly not worried about him. He knows he can be better and I'm confident he and the team will perform better next year since basically everyone had below career average years at the plate except Bo Bichette.
I think Chapman will be moved and Biggio will be the starting 3rd basemen with a break-out year at the plate. He has talent and has been having very good at-bats at the end of last season. He's showing a lot of maturity at the plate and I think the only thing he needs to break out is to play every day.@@greatloverofmusic1
@@warlordofbritannia technically every player every season, game, at-bat, pitch, adjusts. You say it like it's a negative thing. Go out there and give it a go, chap ;)
There is no brutal decline. He'll be 25 next year. He had an OPS+ of 133 last year, I'd hardly say that's declining and more so just a young hitter finding his way in the bigs. But you got me taking the bait and commenting on the video so good job.
You took the words right out of my mouth.
He had an OPS+ of 117
@@warlordofbritannia True, but the spirit of the argument is still valid.
@@greatloverofmusic1
Not really--going from 167 to 117 in two years is a pretty big decline.
@@warlordofbritannia Typical young player variance. He's hasn't entered his "prime years". The title Brutal Decline is a bit of a stretch. No?
I think another to note is that the Jays got rid of all of his protection in the line-up during the offseason.
Let's just shovel dirt on a 24 year old kid's career. His '23 K & BB % were better than '22 and his BABIP was 10-15 points lower than his career norms. Jeez.
Well, unless something big changes you can predict quite easily what his career is going to look like--about two-thirds of Kent Hrbek
@@warlordofbritannia I don't think he needs to make big changes. He is still quite young. If does settle in as less-than-expected, he'll be more like=100% Kent Hrbek. And that ain't bad.
@kanajingly8957 That's why people like us need to call B.S. when we see it.
@@greatloverofmusic1His numbers keep going down every year. Steadily too. Every season his batting average drops by 10 points or more. If that keeps up he won't be in the show much longer.
@@dmitryayers403 Well like I said, his K and BB numbers were better than the previous season and his batting luck is down. Plus his OBP was better in '23 than '22. I really don't know what the expectation is for this kid. Is the standard his near MVP season, the 2023 version or somewhere in between. Whatever that answer may be, I'm confident he's nowhere near being left off a Major League roster.
Dude is still batting .260 and nearly hitting 100 rbis that's better than a lot of scrubs playing today. He would start on every team still today so ya he is fine
He wouldn't start on 2 other AL East teams alone (Red Sox with Casas and Rays with Diaz). Rizzo was also better than him in the part of the season he played healthy. That doesn't include teams like the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, possibly Tigers and Royals depending on what steps we see from Tork and Vinnie, Rangers, Dodgers, or Dbacks. All of those teams probably feel better with their 1B spot that Vlad right now. In 2 years when he is a FA and if he gets back to what he is supposed to, then it will be different. But right now, I think all of those teams feel fine saying no to switching their guy with Vlad.
@@wwpjd28he would DH for half of them lol
Clickbaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait.
You described a guy that had 26 hr, 94 rbi, and 159 hits last season, as a marginally above average hitter. I would like to see what the "average hitter" put up last year.
Im marking it now - This video will not age well
This video didn’t age well. Vladdy has been dominating since mid June. 😂 even before that point in the season he was still an above average hitter. He may not be an offensive juggernaut like Ohtani or Judge but he’s going to be a top 20 hitter in MLB most years. So far he’s been a 4 time All-Star as well.
Done-ee-din
Could you do a video on Kyle Tucker? He had an amazing regular season in 2023 and then was absolutely out of it in the post season somehow hitting worse than the catcher Maldonado.
this video seems to be entirely reseached from the blue jays reddIT. that place is the biggest pit of armchair expert doomsaYERS. going from mvp level to above average is not a "brutal decLINE". there's as many examples of up, dow, up up up trajectories as there is otherwISE. and DOONDIN? makes me think all the research you did was via reading comments from miserable jays fANS.
He needs to mature. Coaching and management is major problem for the jays and it ain’t helping Vlad at all
He needs to run his mouth less and stop giving other teams bulletin board material.
Losing 30 pounds would help too
@@warlordofbritanniaI’d consider that a part of maturing. Being mature is being in control of your weight and clearly Vlad can’t
@@atomicgiraffe250well what do you expect when a player is spoiled to hell and back by an evil corporation.
His coaches were Guillermo Martinez and Dave Hudgens. The only types of players who succeeded under that were spray hitters that hit for an average. Once we get an actual hitting coach and strategist he'll be fine.
lol 4 all-star games in his first 5 years of the league and he is "on the decline" lol These youtube content creators are making fools of themselves
All the talent in the world to crush plenty of bombs, drive in a lot of runs, and bat near .300. he had a .405 OBP in 2021. He’s truly a big time talent when he’s on. Lot of years left for him
This goes to show how hard it is to maintain a level of consistency that lives up to the hype built around a prospect like him.
It's why Ken Griffey Jr. is my all-time favorite player. He came into the league with massive hype as the #1 draft pick, carrying his father's name, actually playing with his dad and he lived up to all the expectations and then some. One of the most gifted players ever both at the box and in the outfield.
Kind of like Lebron James.
But this goes to show how hard it is to maintain a level of conisistency at a MLB level.
Orrrrr Barry Bonds lmao
If he loses some weight and the jays get new hitting coaches he will be fine
He's already lost a lot of weight since his debut. That's not the issue. In fact weight loss is actually something that contributed to the problem a bit because it's changed the base of his swing and he is struggling to find the perfect adjustment in his mechanics to account for it.
@@CCDaDon15well said. If he's been losing weight and not doing so well then maybe he was better being a little bigger
It’s pronounced dun EE din, not dooned-in…
Vlad Jr. is by no means a small dude, but at 6-2, i dont believe he was ever near 300lbs.
I think they jays have a bit of a culture problem in the locker room. Some guys don’t want to put in the work. I think this is what happened to both Vladdy and Manoah, they didn’t put in the work over the last couple of off seasons and it’s showing on the field.
The real work they need to put in is the "push away". They need to "push away" from the dang table and lose weight. 10 pounds can greatly affect performance at that level...
...hot take much? How about Richie Sexson? Jason Bay? Chris Carter, Khris & Chris Davis, Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, hell even Miguel Cabrera? C'mon bro, you're better than this.
i miss Guerrero jr doing his best i hope he gets out of this funk
He hasn't declined. His BABIP is around 25 points lower, over the last two years, than the average of all hitters. In essence his batting average should have been around .300 for 3 straight seasons. His K and FB rates are relatively the same as his best year. He has just had some bad luck.
His groundball rate is over 50 3/5 years, and the difference between this year and 2021 is that his hard hit rate is down.
@@warlordofbritannia
Player A. PA: 601, GB - Out: 159, Poor/Weak Contact%: 5.3, Barrel %: 9.6
Player B. PA: 682, GB - Out: 178, Poor/Weak Contact%: 3.8, Barrel %: 11.1
Player A: Bo Bichette
Player B: Vlad G Jr
The point is ground balls aren't the end of the world (Bo's .820 OPS demonstrates this) and the hard-hit rate may be down but finding the barrel is what matters. His underline metrics are not that bad, they are actually above average. He is 24 and will put together some great seasons in the future.
Yes, he has declined. Open your eyes.
There is no way you can call him getting picked off at 2nd in the playoffs "bad luck".
Wait, WTF was that pronunciation of Dunedin? You're saying "done-din"????
It sounds like "done-eden"
It’s because of his weight. The pitch clock is exposing the big guys
No it's not. He was doing better when he was heavier.
As with Cecil and Prince Fielder, Vlad Jr.’s weight will relegate him to DH duties.
every sentence you speak ends with a downward pitch bend, its ridiculous
Turns out he just needed a haircut
I want to love this series but the raised tone at the end of. Every. Single. Sentence. Just too annoying for me to handle. Almost as if it’s an AI generated deal to make it sound more human. l usually have to have to just bail. But I don’t want to , so can you….
I agree it so awfullllllllllll
Maybe I'm just being ignorant, simplistic, in thinking maybe we may witness progression, an evolution into the next level, if we saw a Vlad Jr. who got into better physical shape. He is too young to look like Miguel Cabrera in his 40's. If he was better conditioned physically it could show the world that he has a new-found dedication to his profession. And with that dedication, a new passion, the crafting of the mental skill-set & knowledge to succeed at a higher level would probably soon follow.
"He is too young to look like Miguel Cabrera in his 40's."
That's the whole issue a single phrase. He may be 25, but he profiles as someone at least 30.
doondin
lol, "denser", Otherwise known as fat in regards to ballplayers.
Hey man, don't take this the wrong way. Interesting video. I watched it all no problem. But once I noticed you were putting same accent on every sentence, it became very hard to focus.
Bro,I respect you immensely,you work hard on your content,and you do great research,but I have a question.. Why do you accentuate the last word of every sentence you speak? I'm just asking if that's a particular broadcasting technique
that is used. Is it to keep rhythm of your speech steady? I promise I'm not a troll and this is not a criticism of your style,but I've watched enough of your videos to notice that this is the way you speak,and I'm curious. (Also a broadcast background here as well)
In the 2022 wild card series when the Blue Jays blew the lead against the mariners, I remember the camera cutting to Vlad looking all sad in the dugout…while the game was tied. And he just failed to show up in the postseason again. He’s a good player, but he’s not a winner. Doesn’t quite have that killer instinct.
dude is 24 he will be back
@SAMTIMP back to what? Shitting his pants in the postseason?
@@joshdelagarza231he’s 24 relax
@@joshdelagarza231he’s been to the postseason like twice, and they never play more than a few games in every post season he ain’t got shit to judge
@matteo-vd5iz
Nothin but excuses. Evan Carter from the Rangers debuted like 2 weeks before the postseason and did more in 1 wild card game than Vladdy Jrs ever done.
Imagine spending your entire life in the MLB in the U.S. and Canada.....then having a kid that you know from the time they're about 5 that they're also going to play in the MLB.....and still....NEVER....EVER......even consider teaching them English.
The entire team slumped big time with hitting, they need new coaches. The derby showed he's still got the pop, I think it's a mental thing more than anything
What is it about this guy's speech pattern that's getting to me? He goes way up and then down in tone in the final word of every sentence. Jesus... Annoying.
Update: Through July, Vlad is 8th in the AL in bWAR with a 161 OPS+.
To call a 26-homer, 30-double, 94-RBI season a “brutal decline” is about the dumbest thing I’ve heard in months.
Did you expect him to just hit 50 homers and produce a 7.0 WAR every year of his career until he turned 40?
No but you also don’t expect the most hyped international prospect of the decade be a slightly above average player do you
I saw the thumbnail for this vid pulled up his baseball reference page and went straight to the comments looking for something along these lines. Thank you for stoping the spread of misinformation. Hopefully people understand he is 24 and has been an above league average hitter every year with many more great years ahead of him
@@swisscheese6456 Yoan Moncada has entered the chat
@@SAMTIMPburn 🔥
Thanks man. Was thinking the same thing
Kinda started his offense career at the plate similar to Bryce Harper - the walks. Great bat to ball skills and power nonetheless. When he starts to draw more walks he’ll get better pitches to hit
Didn't Cody bellinger have a resurgent year after one of these? Buy your Guerrero stock.
I lobe your videos, but you have to stop raising the tone of you voice at the end on every sentence. It makes it hard to get through the video
Vlad's 2021 gets way too overhyped. It was fantastic. Soto that same year was .313/.465/.534/.999 with an OPS+ of 175. He actually should've beaten Harper for the MVP in the NL that year, while Vlad didn't even come close. Tatis had almost the exact same OPS+ as Vlad that year (166 vs 167) and Acuna had a 158 while being on pace for a 40/40 season in just the half of games he got to play. Vlad was never the best young talent in the game or even the top 2 DR youngster. He gets overhyped because he has flashy tools that he can't properly translate and a HOF father.
Also, his MVP shot was not really that clear cut. You could make a case he should've finished 5th depending on how you view WAR. Semien was more valuable than him hitting at his high level while playing elite, dependable 2B, JRam was about the same value, and Correa was hitting at a very high level while being the best defensive SS in the game by a wide margin. So Vlad easily could've finished 5th or so if not for how much people love the sexy Triple Crown categories.
To be honest I think the entire Blue Jays core is a bit overhyped. They always lose 1st round of playoffs
Vladdy's mom, the matriarch of their family, has been very ill and that played a major part of last season's anomaly. He will be a Triple Crown threat for the next 10 years.
I wouldn't call this a brutal decline. Dude is only 24 or 25. A lot of baseball greats have a couple lackluster years before they ramp up into phenoms in their later 20's.
He has a lot of time ahead, he just needs to master his fundamentals a bit more and stop focusing on the power hitting so much and he'll be fine.
He's like 24, give him a break
Well i was interested until that interrupted sponsor. Gotta do that at the start. Not get into the subject THEN do it.
Bro why do you talk like that?
He's a sloppy undisiplned player . Nice boy but unwilling or able to be coached
LOL, the guy's hitting .194...he's killing his team. He's just a weak shadow of his father. Money killed him.
LOL, it just goes to show that it's silly to judge an entire season on a cold April.
Players have down seasons and slow beginnings. Who knows about the future
Hey, he will bounce back. The stats showed he was just unlucky
I've been waiting for a video of Vlad like this. Keep up the amazing work!
why do you end every sentence up? it’s difficult to listen to
"Brutal decline". He had a 133 WRC+ this year....
No one knows what that means
@@4thand3 "because I don't know what that means, it must be irrelevant" -you
@matthewcooper6191 weighted runs created is a garbage time stat
You seem to jump the gun to much, im not a jays fan and i think he will be fine hes still crazy young and needs to mature the jays need new coaching
Look forward to the incline video any day
On top of every point you mentioned, do you think it’s been impacted by the change in mlb baseballs over the years? I’ve seen a lot of people speak about how it’s affected the homerun numbers over the years
The Blue Jays' single A affiliate is pronounced Done-ee-din, not Dune-din.
This sounded like one very long run-on sentence.
His decline is more than likely a mix of immaturity, egotism, bad mechanics, bad management and bad coaching.
Side note: Dunedin is pronounced “Dunn-EE-dinn.”
Not trying to body shame Vlad Jr but his weight is going to be a problem. People don't get lighter as they progress through their 20s. He needs to be mindful of his body health. This was a concern for Cabrera early in his career and he managed to keep his body in enough shape to play 20+ years and is a lock for the HOF.
Yea he really killed it in DUN DIN🤣🤣
TH-cam "voice" is getting to crisis levels
Love your content but I can’t help but notice your voice inflection always going up and down…..up….and down lol
Once you notice it, it almost becomes unwatchable.
@@iluvtv2 I’m glad somebody else noticed lol
It's who he is guys. Gotta deal with it.
Yeah, it's way way way too early to make a video like this... As you said, he's 24 years old. Most rookies aren't 24 years old, and he already has 5 years under his belt. He'll be fine..
Say what you want about Vlad Jr...those baby blue Toronto unis are some of the best in the league
I blame no one else other than the organization. Not only has management not helped him hit, but they’ve also been spoiling him with brand endorsements that have turned him selfish, immature and arrogant.
Something needs to change up top, then maybe we will see him return to 2021 form.
Some of his “decline” could just be the inherent randomness of baseball… it’s a long season and a mentally exhausting game. He could’ve been playing through injuries or any number of different things; he’s still a young kid with the time to still put it all together
A little better, but you are still annoyingly emphasize the final word of every sentence. Presenters are not supposed to do that.
9:26 its pronounced as duh-nee-dn
Buddy relax with this video
As a Jays fan I always hated Vlad. Way to inconsistent! Been asking for a trade but yall like talentless flops.
Something to keep in mind is that his 2021 production was inflated by playing a good chunk of the season in minor league ballparks with very hitter friendly dimensions. Those inflated numbers may have given a false impression of what his true normal level of production would be going forward.
Vlad 2021 Splits:
Overall in non-MLB stadiums: .364/.469/.827 (1.296 OPS) 21 HR in 44 games.
Overall in MLB stadiums: .291/.375/.518 (.893 OPS) 27 HR in 117 games.
He had about a 37 HR pace in MLB ballparks, but his 77 HR pace in minor league parks brought his season total to 48 and raised his OPS by over 100 points. It is not fair to expect 2021 level production from him when he was only able to achieve that thanks to playing a quarter of his games in very hitter friendly minor league parks. Vlad needs to be recognized for the hitter he is not and criticized for failing to live up to unrealistic expectations.
if you watched him hit it didnt really matter what ballpark he was in he launced them 450
good answere
Vlad is just lazy. That's all.
That's the threshold for "brutal" decline? What adjective do you use for Javy Baez's decline? His launch angle has always been rough. He just needs to stop hitting hard grounders when he's a below average runner at best. He'll be fine.
His 2021 season was an outlier. If you compare the other 4 season, his numbers are nearly identical and he hasn't declined or improved at all.
chill out he's 24
No Matter how "Blue Chip" the Prospect, some will always have a very short peak then never reach it again. Vlad Jr is just Kung Fu Panda reskinned with a famous name
He's not in mlb to win championships. He's in mlb for the multi-million dollar contracts
You sound like when Stewie Griffin was making fun of Brian's really stupid girlfriend who spoke with an upward inflection at the end of every sentence. Dial that back a bit man
He's an overweight DH.
He has no fielding skills at any position, so release him from the pressures of displaying his inadequacies and have him focus on on eating healthier, training (cause he still can't run) and batting technique.
it's because he is a Blue Jay....they are the second worse run organization in MLB behind the LA Angels and the worst when it comes to their players (Sources claim).
he won't reach his ceiling unless he grows up. he's been anointed and coddled from the beginning. his lack of hustle is awful. his repeated mental mistakes are awful. they keep happening. his attitude is awful. he's his own worst enemy and he's going to ruin what could be a hall of fame career if he doesn't smarten up.
Just a tip:
When recording yourself talking to the camera for the ad read raise the camera to eye level instead of mouth level and sit slightly further away. It’s all teeth and lips in the picture and it’s not what you want to convey during the segment.
Otherwise good content.
why do you talk like this
Hes still putting better numbers than 3/4 of mob players lol. Its not a decline he just isnt having s crazy season like he was before. Hes also still young
Well done video! Great research and editing. Really loved it. Just gotta say though, Vlad still is legit. No way you can count him out yet.
I think it’s too soon to say he’s declining. I can see him coming back with 40+ HR and batting 290 shit happens. He’s young
I swear people are so stupid look at vlads stats compared to Soto other then a couple months they played the exact same but are people saying Soto declined no vlads only 24 he hasn’t even hit his prime yet let him be
Who the heck is saying that the blue jays will get rid of him 😂😂😂
Don’t put Rhys in there cmon now he’s hit 30 homers almost every year and has led the league in walks 1 or 2 times and has some huge playoff homers
The mark of true blue quality...often imitated, never equalled...say it with me...MTC!