Why has Sinn Féin’s Support Collapsed?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 มิ.ย. 2024
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In this video we explain Sinn Féin’s recent rise and fall, and what it means for the party going forward.
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It’s because they have two bases, the progressive young left and the anti-migration rural bloc. The anti-migration bloc saw Sinn Fein support two unpopular government referendums. They started to leave Sinn Fein, then Sinn Fein tried to win them back, this led to the progressive bloc feeling disillusioned too.
Sounds like typical Left wing nonsense and hypocrisy...they're all the same (like here in Australia with the 'Greens' and Labor) just bloody awful
Young Irish are also anti immigration. SF betrayed everyone
i would also add a lot of working class areas alongside the rural bloc
I suspect that most people in most European countries actually have quite moderate ideas about immigration. I reckon there would be minimal complaints if net migration were kept below 0.5% of the population. If we prioritized people who have useful skills and integrate well. If asylum seekers were screened thoroughly. If dangerous criminals were deported. And if we were able to discuss the pros and cons sensibly.
I'm not sure why we're being forced into this false dichotomy of "pro-immigration" vs "anti-immigration" by radicals on either side.
infairness the referendum wasnt realy progressive it was poorly planned and poorly executed virtual signaling im neither far left or right and i can safely say they lost many peoples confidence as they showed how they were just as out of touch as the current goverment they lost there support among anyone paying the slightest bit of attention who wants change in favour of the majority of ireland and not just the elite.
As a young person I have noticed peoples’ souring position on Sinn Féin due to what they see as ‘incompetence’ and Sinn Féin ‘talking out of both sides of their mouth’ -trying to appeal to everybody and subsequently appealing to nobody.
I also notice an increase in support for coalition parties as people are beginning to engage more with politics before the upcoming election and the sort of anti-establishment vote which Sinn Féin had enjoyed the support of fizzles out as people realise that their vote has to count.
Brilliant analysis
both sides, as in the radical left and the extreme left
@@anamdioltait's literally the right wing nuts burning down reception centres
2:52 the fact that the two other major parties went into coalition with each other is also key here. Sinn Fein is still untainted by any failures in government- every failure in terms housing and healthcare can now credibly be blamed on *both* main parties, and Sinn Fein gets to be the only credible opposition party.
It’s kind of like how Labour are doing so well in the U.K. at the moment - they’ve had 14 years in opposition, there’s nothing that the Tories can really blame them for that will really stick, because they’ve had the reigns of power for so long. It’s the same with Sinn Fein.
Literally of the parties that existed and had seats when I was born sf are the only ones that have never been in govt. PBP, soc Dems and Aontú didn’t exist then.
I don't think Sir Keir would be happy for his party to be compared to the Shinners! Even the Daily Mail wouldn't sink that low :)
@@rogink ah sure I don’t mean in terms of policy - I mean in terms of strategic position relative to their rivals
They are much tainted by their failures in opposition and support of major govt polices the past 3 years. They are currently trying to backtrack since the referendum
@@RedJadeArt Of course I know exactly what you meant. But in the world of politics you can twist words to mean the reverse of what the speaker intended.
Local and EU politics is more of a popularity contest for candidates. Midlands Northwest literally elected a jockey who had no campaign just because people knew her name. We haven't seen any national polls since this but I do imagine there will be a dent
Exactly, some people in my family voted a woman simply for the county she was from
Aren’t all elections not just a popularity contest 🤦♂️
@Pancakelover969 yeah but they are not usually personal popularity contests that's the difference between local and national politics
This happened last time to where SF went down after the Euros because they don't have a clear position on it but surged for the national election. The same will likely happen again with the economy and housing front and centre but from a stronger starting base. Compared to the rest of the left in Ireland SF is doing far better and is more dominant than ever. Fianna Fail could be a bit of a challenge to them if Michael Martin is shipped off to Europe tho.
@@dubliam8064 SF needs to get cuter about running celebrity candidates in the EU elections. They probably could have gotten a seat in MNW if they were smarter about it and ran someone who actually lives in the EU.
If successive governments here in Ireland had actually cared about housing and the worsening crisis in the past, immigration would be a way smaller issue than it has become.
Perhaps your right but housing an issue around the world and any immigration is viewed as "oh more people coming here to take what little housing our country has at the moment". Housing cost too much and renting feels like your paying for a house but owning nothing.
This is true. But they feed off division even as they wring their hands....
@@oldsenpai4337 It's not an issue everywhere though, only places that have made it basically policy to stop building houses.
@@daraorourke5798 yep.
No lol
Everyone in Ireland either votes for the worst party or doesn't vote at all
😂
@@cruzgomes5660 What so funny?
Sounds like the US
@@tiglishnobody8750 I think the joke is how similar and dominant Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were.
@@jacobite2353 i see
Guys i love the videos, but the intro sound tracks are WAYYYYYYYYY too loud (0:45). This has been going on for a long time. Pls fix it and make it just slightly louder than the rest of the video and if u can't do that reliably, just make it the same volume with the rest. Pls.
I second this motion
I disagree. I think it's hilarious.
The sound is off generally. The voice sounds a lot better during the ad for Brilliant than in the main piece.
Definitely think McDonald is part of the problem. Michelle ONeill, the leader here in the North, is polling as more popular in the South than Mary Lou.
Mary Lou is a privately educated woman from posh South Dublin, not sure how they though appointing her president of a party that calls itself party of the working class was a good idea
I won’t lie I’d rather see her as the republics leader than MLMCD. O’Neill seems like a real person who really came from nothing
Mary Lou is a former FF'er who realised she was going nowhere with them...just another drop in the toilet bowl with them.
She was selected purely on gender when they had Pearse and Eoin right there.
Pronunciation of 'Taoiseach' was quite good, which is refreshing to see in non-Irish media.
This commentator has good pronunciation
Fine Gaels change of leadership gamble has definitely paid off, looking at the polls
I have no clue how! Sinn Féin are no miracle workers and the shift to the right is very concerning, but so many of the key issues we have are directly linked to FF and FG! The 2 parties have ruled ireland with almost identical policies for a century, I rlly hope we get a change and soon, hopefully that change is a progressive, left-wing and socialist coalition led by sinn féin
@@SeamusOCleirigh2002 ah Harris is very good at the aul sound bite tbf to him
@@SeamusOCleirigh2002there's something you should know: ireland is Right Wing...regardless of what people tell you or what you think. We are progressive on some issues but frankly on the core issues, Irish voters are right wing to a fault. For example, At the end of the day the housing crisis is being caused by homeowners...who are also voters...and Sinn Feins policies on housing will detrimentally affect them through the value of their homes. So of course they won't vote for them.
I really don't think immigration is above housing,I think maybe they're both linked but most people are worried they'll be homeless at the end of the year
@@senwal422 among young people housing is absolutely above immigration but among middle aged-older voters, immigration is the issue right now
Compulsory "sales" to house them, it will be a problem that definitely mingles the two.
@@cd1051 Leftists tend to believe that immigrants don't take up housing.
They're linked.
@@InaEsinalong with supply and demand of course
I only clicked this to find out if I've been pronouncing Sinn Fein correctly
and was you?
I always called it "Sin Finn"
Two phonetically similar English words would be "Shin feign" . That's the way you pronounce it.
@@thetreelander7378 I pronounced as Shin Fine, close enough
@@ridingin7856níl sé ceart :/
That joke at the end was killer well done!
What about rishi moving to California? Whatever gave u that idea ? 😂
The main cause of Sinn Fein's seemingly bad results were low turnout, particularly in urban areas and among younger voters (i.e. SF's main support bases) so the people who actually turned up to vote in the local and European elections were older, rural and wealthier voters who generally favour the right anyway.
In the immigration issues, it probably won't hurt the party too much in a general election, as housing becomes the main focus during the campaign. Local government isn't really responsible for housing, so that issue wasn't really on the ballot, and the nature of European elections means that immigration is naturally more in focus, your own graph in the video shows that the importance of the issue declined hugely a few months after the riots in Dublin and it was really the election that brought it back into focus.
Also worth noting that a lot of Irish people vote on personality over parties or issues (especially in second order elections) the coalition parties had more incumbent councillors who largely got reelected off their own personal popularity in their local areas, which SF didn't have. Alongside that in the EP election fg and ff ran several celebrities as candidates which attracted votes from people who just know/like the candidate rather than the party. Even with all of those things though, the coalition parties have their worst combined results ever, and fg didn't even over perform the polls despite shifted turnout demographics, so if anything that's a bad sign for them.
😂 you ignore why they didn't turnout I live the cope.
I agree but voters who only show up every second election aren't good voters, I reckon there is a good chance the next election will be electric picnic weekend and sf could be badly hurt by young people not showing up
@@amh9494 they didn't turn out because it's a second order election, and young people in particular don't show up to those normally?
@@od9694 I didn't say they only show up every second election, I said they don't show up for second order elections (as in not main general elections), these things generally have lower turnout because they have less power and therefore voting in them doesn't do much, there are large segments of voters who consistently vote in general elections (first order elections) and so are reliable in this area, but also don't vote in local elections.
Even if you map the local election results directly onto a general election, what you get is ff and fg falling short of a majority and probably having to rely on independents to govern, which would be incredibly unstable and unpopular with many of their own voters, while also providing the opposition with the opportunity to form some sort of alliance as it may be seen as the only way to actually finally get a left wing government.
Good post. In the General election it will be the government versus Sinn Féin. A lot of the cranks and single issue candidates will be squeezed out
The 2020 general election was very much a protest vote against the ruling parties not necessarily a vote of support for SF however local and general elections are two very different things in Ireland, in local elections people vote more for the person than the party. SF will likely still do very well in the next general election as people want a change of government but only if they can put forward policies of HOW exactly they are going to build more houses when the current government is already throwing billions at it, SF are big on message but very light on details!
I come from quite a liberal background when it comes to immigration, however through my family and friends it’s completely switched. I would’ve never even considered immigration a problem a few years back, now it’s up there with housing.
It’s sad really, all we as Irish people want is honesty from our government, they are divisive and secretive because they know the Irish people are still susceptible to generational trauma in regard to these issues. That also won’t change is Sinn Féin go into government and I believe that’s why the % has fallen too. It’s become a populist party.
we have 100k Ukrainians in Ireland, they get 800 euro rent allowance, medical cards and now free university from our government, which the Irish public now have to pay for. While everyone else (Irish or not) have to pay the highest fees in the EU. It’s unfair and divisive which has turned Irish people quite aggressive and hostile especially in working class/middle income areas.
Irish people want equality for all, and it stems from British rule and generational trauma from years of occupation and oppression. It’s a very touchy subject. Ireland is still 90% Irish but we look at Britain, France, Sweden, Netherlands and we just believe our culture and language has already been decimated from the get go, we just don’t want to lose anymore of that.
Hi, excellent video!
Next year we will see it, I don't see the decline anywhere.
Should also be noted that there was a very strong establishment push in the media. In the months before the elections the number of "hit" peices targeting Sinn Fein dramatically increased.
Understandbly if they are going to take control then this sort of thing and digging is to be expected but personally I have never seen it for an opposition party over the incombant government.
Another intellectual giant who imagines people do not share their views because of the ‘establishment’ and the ‘media’.
@@jontalbot1 oh a lot of people share my views. Just not all support one party as most of the time the details are in the implementation of the solution.
As for Sinn Fein, I'm anti Sinn Fein and don't see their policies as the solution to the problems. I also see them as populist rather than pragmatic in what they propose which is easy when your in opposition to sit and say "they're doing it wrong". So yes, a large portion of their voter base is due to anti-establishment view points. It would be stupid and naive to think they would campaign on "more of the same in a different shade of green please"
As for one specific view, people of Ireland are sick of the Fail/Gael swing yet they remain in power implementing the same policies that led to all the problems.
We can debate endlessly about what ifs of Sinn Fein policies and if Sinn Fein would be "change" but one thing is clear....Fail/Gael are not held in positive opinion despite victories.
My comment was pointing to the fact (and I made no comment on my opinion of the matter) that on the cusp of potential change, a notable uptick in negative news pieces was observed for Sinn Fein. After so long of the same duopoly and for the reasons above it is certainly interesting
@@Javadamutt Instead of imagining yourself an advocate for the people, why don’t you try getting to know a few - who you will quickly discover do not think like you at all?
@@jontalbot1 Oh lord, the media is biased because the media is bought out by interests. That's not rocket science and they do push narratives. It's not a valid excuse to say 'this is why I lost' but it is a real phenomenon.
@@jontalbot1 I don't know this guy, but there definitely has been a media soft touch on the right and center right parties, and a scrutiny bordering on slander for sinn féin and even the left wing parties that don't side with them
"Can't please all its voters" and not "can't please all it's voters".
I wouldn't call it a decline, but simply consolidation.
We're not doing this. It's silly to put out a video that brings up their increase in dail seats and only 1 EU/council election. In 2019, right before they had their historic general election result in 2020, they had historic defeats. They went from 3! MEPs to 1, and their councillors fell from 160 to 80, literally halved! And it annoys me to no end that nobody talks about it. This happened right after marylou took over. Council elections and EU elections are vibes-based and ML doesn't have the vibes for council and eu elections that Gerry Adams did, but she does better in the general. Nothing explains Labour and Soc-Dems coming 4th and 5th in council elections and second last and dead last respectively in EU elections. Nothing! Im not denying there are legitimate reasons for their decline in support. But christ can somebody get a journalist to throw a glance at a wikipedia page please im literally b e g g i n g g g g g
Agreed the stock being put in an election where one sheet is a bunch of borderline nobodies and the fella down the road and the other is a >20 list where even those invested with politics are half forgetting as they fill in is not a great measure of anything
That’s also ignoring the fact it’s an election that’s criminally underrespected by a large cohort that’ll only bother their holes appearing for the general and the bigger referendums
One day the european left will understand being against deregulated migration isnt "racist" and this day the far right will lose a lot of its attractiveness.
It's not deregulated migration. It's a deregulated/free-market and unplanned service economy that runs on migrants workers.
I dont think so, the far right will just keep moving the goal post until they get their ethnostate that they are always yapping on about.
This happened in Denmark already. Now the left is winning there.
@@Hujhjgffwexactly. And the center right will always coalesse with fascist politics to stay in power. Such as the Tories.
Immigration is the only thing I agree with conservatives on. And nothing els.
Thanks!
Its almost as if you cant keep telling people what they want to hear and expect no one to realise some of it is mutually exclusive.
Fine Gael is centre right? LOL
Yes? They vote in the centre right voting block and have some more progressive views which is not unusual for centrist parties to cross over the divide on some issues
Ah they’re centre left on social issues centre right on economics.
Top marks on getting the pronunciations correct.
Alongside all the other points mentioned in the comments its also worth noting there's a group of voters who just jump from party to party. From the PDs to PBP to SF. There's always a new hot thing to vote for every cycle.
People jumped from PD to SF. Sure...
@@fintonmainz7845 moreso there's always been people who jump to a protest party. Not everyone who went to the PDs went to the PBP and not everyone who went to the SF. But I have seen several people who follow this same old trend.
@@Gallalad1 who went from PD to SF? You're living in a dream world
@@fintonmainz7845 not directly no. But yes, I saw several people go from the PDs to independents and PBP/AAA. Later there was a jump from the PBP to SF. That's the facts lad, if you dont like that I dont know what to tell you.
@@Gallalad1 What a load of drivel. You stated that people went from PD to SF. That did not happen. Your ego won't allow you to admit your mistake.
Good analysis - well done!
Great job on the pronunciations!
"political wing" not "Public wing".
Sinn Féin : increases seats and vote share in both local and EU elections, doubling their seats in the EU
TLDR: Sinn Féin is declining!
Sorry what
Oh dome on man 2 years ago SF was polling as high as FG and FF combined! In these elextions they got 1/4 of that, only how half as big as them individually
SF did very well in the last general election but have not achieved anywhere near similar success in any elections since. Their support is therefore declining
Did you even watch the video? There's more to numbers and polls
@@TheMickydowling Public polling: 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 4
(What a clear net decline, much humbug ohh ahh! And they gained a seat - precipitous decline, how will Sinn Féin ever recover?)
>line breaks on youtube
Sorry what
As an Irish voter, the reason that Sinn Fein has lost support is because there is a perception among many Irish people that the incumbent parties (Fine Gael and Fianna Fail) have done SOME things to fix the problems that we are suffering as a country (they need to do more on housing) and all Sinn Fein do is cry about how terrible things are but offer no solutions. Mary Lou doesn't help either.
What the hell have FFG done to help me get a house? Absolutely NOTHING. Give your head a wobble.
@@MrManBuzzhe literally said they need to do more on housing... Maybe give your own head a wobble?
@@MrManBuzzcry more, i think the coalition is doing a bit better now, and are being dragged down by the greens
@@Ronnet They've done nothing on housing. And they never will. The elephant in the room is their voter base wants house prices to stay high because they already own houses, and FFG know this. "hey we'll implement policies that'll effectively crash the price of your home, vote for us" That's never happening.
@@Ronnet Like they been saying when they are in power before 2020?
I think sinn feins tack rightwards on immigration is a large reason for this, they thought that taking a harsher (but not too hardline) stance would broaden support but it has alienated their base. A lot of people then moved over to independents because they thought sf were too soft on immigration or that they had betrayed their left wing values.
That, combined with the swarm of new far right parties, and independent ireland (a new party right of ff/fg) have also undermined their nationalist base. (Even though a lot of irish nationalists have historically been left wing).
Local/eu elections are also not indicative of how they will do in next general election. There's much more reliable on personalities than parties, for example.
Quite the polar opposite. Their core voter base in the 26 counties has always been old skool Irish nationalists and far more conservative than those in the North. The condemning of people protesting and then flat out ignoring them cost them that support.
5:29 “Can’t please all it’s voters” - it’s (with an apostrophe) is ALWAYS a contraction of ‘it is’. For the possessive version there is no apostrophe. This is another TLDR deliberate error designed to get people like me to generate comment fodder.
5:52 why are they putting flags of a bunch of western countries and India on a poster on the top left of the screen in a protest against immigration?
Maybe they're opposed to immigration from those countries?
Lmao, they couldn't tell the Italian flag from Indian flag 😂😂
@@yansen1568 they also have the Irish flag on there! plus, how many Australians are moving to Ireland vs how many Irish are in Australia?
The way governments are run today are so ineffective and out of date.
Record people reach old age, and most of them now don't have to beg to eat! Yeah Governments are rubbish.
It's done on purpose, the politicians will stay lining their pockets this way
At 3:23 you could’ve just said ‘opposition’. There is no official opposition or lead of the opposition in Ireland.
SF's traditional support base was drawn from rural and working class areas, in recent years though they have begun peddling more progressive identity politics in an attempt to win votes of more upper class people such as well off university types who call themselves republicans as a sort of fashion statement almost, which in turn has alienated a lot of their traditional base
traditional base is kind of dying otherwise we wouldn't legalized same-sex marriage by popular vote
@@tiglishnobody8750 same-sex marriage is nowhere near as big as concern to people as open borders
@@shutup2751 You just talking about traditional base
As if the leaders of 1916 weren’t well off university types…
@@User-qf2ex in touch with people at the time though, now it is the opposite
I really do not understand why so many people are suggesting that SF is losing ground, when, in fact, they increased their number of councilors at the local level (81 up to 102) and doubled their European representation. FF and FG did not perform so well. All that seems to have happened is that SF's upward trajectory was not as steep as had been hoped/suggested.
Why is this video not on TLDR UK?
...oh, right.
That was an unfortunate typo
It's unwise to read too much from Local/European election results in Ireland.
Sinn Fein is likely to do much better in the General Election, same as the last cycle (did poorly in Locals, did excellent in General). They just need to run their strategy better - running the right number of candidates per constituency.
So you vote for globalists is that right lock down vaccines climate change all the genders is that right just keep going you will do well for your country not.
I always watch these videos at 1.25x and 1.5x, then forget Nadja, Ben & TLDR-team doesn't actually speak like a hyper-mouse 🤣
New character unlocked
Please move the microphone. It's very distracting. Even tilting it so it's more perpendicular would take up less visual space without moving it away from the speaker.
The Taoiseach has stated that there will be no general election until at least after the Budget is announced in September and likely not until 2025. This may be good for Sinn Féin as the last 2 budgets had a lot of opportunity cost, such as doing little for housing, and with much of what they are doing benefiting landlords and not tenants.
Not a chance it’s 2025 imo. Next budget will offer a mix of tax cuts childcare subsidies and grants for businesses farmers and announcements around housing delivery. I reckon it’ll be on the whole a popular budget albeit an election budget. And they’ll go to the country soon after. There might be a manufactured row with the greens to give them all a campaigning message.
Just curious for any Irish people willing to respond to me, an American, but what has Sinn Féin actually done since their meteoric rise over the past few decades that actually helped lessen the housing crisis?
They have never in government so they can't do anything about the housing crisis
They haven't, they haven't been in government since 1920s after Civil war
@@tiglishnobody8750 this, they litterally cant do anything because they have no power in government
They havent been in power so cannot do anything about housing crisis
I despise them but tbf they’ve run away from the opportunity to be in govt for 15 years now that being said they’ve not been in govt so there’s no way of testing them. They’ve been involved in some of the worst governance in the English speaking world in NI for 15 or so years but ultimately it’s a system where they’re subordinate to the uk govt albeit they’ve been piss poor wherever they’ve had responsibility in that time.
I had no idea they were still around. Thought it was a Molotov party kind of party and defunct now.
I like this presenter.
Oh, look at me,
I can speak slovenly
Come on... Half politicians are blowing up busses or attacking music festivals.... Be fair for God sake
She looks so cute with those glasses
Looking at the graph at 3:34, its seems to me that the support that Sinn Féin lost did not go to the governing parties but to the grey "Ind.+others" cathegory, which would be the third strongest party if it was a party, surrpasing FF and getting close to FG and SF.
A new video with a deep dive into where this quickly rising group of independent candidates' popularity comes from would be interesting.
Our independents are usually ex larger parties and usually always anti establishment types. Yet often they’ll trade their votes for at best the odd backscratcher of money etc for their constituency so that they can say they went to Dublin and won. If you imagine the DUP’s relationship with Westminster with them asking for money for votes and constantly railing against the government that’s pretty much what most of these are like.
They usually are either a strong personal brand long established like a family of politicians in Kerry where pretty much the family name gets them elected or they’re opportunistic protest votes when people are pissed off at the main parties but don’t like the alternatives.
its very simple , thick Irish middle class old kodders, I was in a rural post office a week before the elections and was told quite sincerly that " Sinn Fein were going to take all of our houses and all of our money and give it to the immigrants?! where did did you hear this I asked, "oh the local fine geal councillor, well he believed this and 1 out of 3 people now not voting, Ireland is in big trouble
Best logo in politics
Independents didn't win any significant amount more votes (or seats) in the recent local elections. They just got more attention from the media. The 2 parties Social Democrats and Aontu won more votes and seats than Independents.
Also, I like Nadja and Georgina. They make an effort to pronounce words properly (for example, the word Taoiseach)
Hi, I don't know where you get your vote tallies from? Independents got 25% of the vote in the Europeans - and that's NOT counting the far left Independents 4 Change - whereas Social Democrats and Aontu added together had less than 6%. According to official results, in the local elections Independents receives 28.47% and Social Democrats and Aontu added together a bit over 5%.
@@jamesevans1890 Independents are not in the same place, they are rather different parties, and by party scale, Independent got less
@@jamesevans1890 what vote tallies? and i'm talking about the locals. With all those figures you mention, they didn't translate to seats for independents. 186 seats for independents compared to 185 in the 2019 local elections.
But while you mention the Europeans, its the same thing, all those figures you mention didn't translate to seats
Maybe Ireland should try actually having political parties that have differing positions on major issues, who was it who said that the two main parties are two cheeks of the same ars?
Because most people are quite happy with the status quo when it comes to Northern Ireland - having both British and Irish passports is seen as a benefit to their citizens.
Savage Brilliant Ad :O
5:52 what's with the weird combination of flags on their sign?
How did Ireland get out of the 2008 financial crisis?
Borrowing.
Debt to GDP went from something like 25% to 125%.
Bailed out by the UK, EU and IMF. It's the IMF only success this century.
What happened between April and May 2024 that the importance of the topic of immigration rose so sharply?
Honestly not sure it was that point, I would imagine that the work of poll taking takes a while before it’s published.
Riots in Dublin were the first thing to draw attention to it with an undercurrent of civil disobedience in arson attacks on locations cited for asylum centres. There was a stabbing of kids and a teacher during school hours in Dublin by a mentally ill immigrant (immigrated legally 20+ years ago) in February so probably media sensationalism has also a hand in feeding it.
The fact elections were coming up and speculation of a general election to the Dáil (our parliament) probably made sure it got even more air time as news tried to gauge interest in the topic
The last year SF have shown to be no different than the FFG pact
The entire first 4 minutes can be summed up as 'From an approval high of 36% Sien Fienn have fallen to 23% and here is why.' please stop padding and waffling. While I understand background can be useful it has no bearing on the answer.
2:02 Who is the seat in black between the independents and Fianna Fáil? Aontú is beside Fine Gael, so who are they?
Conservative Sinn Féin. One man party effectively that split off from the Shinners when they decided to be pro abortion
What if Sinn Feins having majority in both Ireland Parliament and Northern Irelands Assembly ?
As a NI person from Derry, I can see SF overtaking the DUP in NI but the party taking a less ambitious strategy in the next dail elections due to their repeat poor performance in local and EU elections, though more ambitious than their last dail elections so they could possibly still be the main governing party. Although with Simon Harris being a strong campaigner this could be more of a challenge in the south (republic)
DUP are useless anyway in Northern Ireland who can't just even move on and wondering why they didn't have any of Youth voter
What are the implications for NI seats in Westminster?
Sinn Fein don't take their seats in Westminster so the effect in Parliament will be zero. Obviously the election next week will be a key measure of support on the ground.
Nothing NI votes are in the main à sectarian headcount sf seat totals will very likely be the same. They could win upper bann but the tuv not standing there likely has the DUP safe there. Two DUP seats are under serious pressure though. East Belfast and south Antrim where Alliance and the UUP threaten them. In north down an ex DUP independent unionist could beat alliance too. Theoretically sf are competitive against the SDLP in Foyle I don’t reckon they’ll do it on this occasion though tbf
Respectfully, this was hard to hear and understand - the speaking style is hard to pay attention to, as the diction is poor. I hope this information comes across as constructive, as it’s meant to be.
Oh . Sinn Féins vote share is up 2.3% on the last European election. They have gained seats in locals and European elections. Not a stellar performance but hardly a melt down. The Greens and other government parties are in more trouble. But don't let the facts etc...
Oh dome on man 2 years ago SF was polling as high as FG and FF combined! In these elextions they got 1/4 of that, only how half as big as them individually
This is silly, the government has maintained their majority, the video is not about the greens. The video is about how SF were polling very highly to then losing this advantage. Which was explained reasonably well in the video!
Sinn Féins vote share in the locals is still down from 2014 lol
Ah here they obviously were going to have a harder time making gains at local level but they got ten percent less than they even got in 2020 if you added the three percent swing or so they recieved vs 2019 (also then considered a terrible election for them) they’d get a measly 27% nowhere near close to getting in govt
6:45 wait... is that ballot counting?
By "immigration" are we talking legal immigration or asylum-seekers?
2:31 sounded like you said "illegalizing".
As an Irish voter Sinn Fein has 2 problems:
1. As a, moderate voter, I'm unwilling to vote for any party associated with the IRA, even historically.
2. It's unclear from their literature what they'd actually DO, if given power. They just say they'll solve XYZ problems without being very specific about HOW. The problem for SF is that the governing parties are also saying they'll solve XYZ problems while also saying HOW (even if it's ways I personally don't like).
The end result is that Ireland currently lacks a credible left wing alternative. SF may be left wing, but they are not credible.
Chaos is a ladder
7:03 that’s brutal 😂
Omg TL:DR finally mentioned immigration. Great job guys!
They have done a hell of a lot of videos on immigration and mention it in most videos lmao. What are you talking about
@@beanz6228 He must be under the rock
at like 6:05 there's an anti-immigration poster that just says Genesis 1:3-4 and that is bleak.
[1.3] "Then God said, "Let there be light"; and there was light. [1:4] "And God saw that the light was good; God separated the light from the darkness."
Idk what that suppose related to anti-immigration
Maybe because the name is hard to say 🤔
It’s not hard to say, it’s in a different language.
Ruairí Ó Brádaigh in the 80's saw the treachery they were to the republican movement, the goals of all true Irish republicans and the people of this island. Some ex Sinn Fein members I know who left in the late 2000's repeatedly told me the shift in Sinn Fein to consensus politics in both the North and South betrayed everything they ever believed in. In the last number of years what Sinn Fein are now is barely recognisable from where they were 20 years ago. They embraced the EU, They embraced mass immigration. They embraced globalist capitalism and all the trappings that political power gave to them. Some Sinn Fein members are some of the richest landlords in Ireland and the UK. They forgot they only existed because of their grass roots support. They have now lost that.
Schadenfreude at Sinn Fein's expense.
The Housing Paradox...
‘Fall’ TLDR segments are getting dumber everyday. Love the random crystal ball prediction thrown in at the end.
Last quarter, I hit the $100,000 mark, which was exciting but unremarkable. You continue to work, save, and make wise decisions despite the uncertain economic climate. Nevertheless, my portfolio has seen a significant fall in spite of market increases. My goal is to enhance it and optimize the yield.
real estate prices exploded, interest rates exploded, but my wage the same, if you dont mind me asking? in dire need of proper asset allocation
No Irish reunification of 2024 Star Trek lied to us
I hate how the most important issue in the EU became the 400 thousand immigrants, less than 0.01% percent of the population!!! If countries like Austria and hungary stopped being racist and each member took about 0.01% of its population as immigrants per year while ensuring ghettos don't form we'd have no problems with integration.
400k is the number of illegal arrivals last year. That is a very tiny fraction of the actual number. The actual number of legal immigrants is 5 million per year. The total number of asylum seekers is 7 million. The total number of all non-citizens is 30 million, and that numbers doubles or triples if you count citizens with a migrant background
@@potato_nugget You are revealing your bias. Your last sentence show that the this is not about asylum seekers, it just plain xenophobia. Why would you even care about the number of citizens with a migrant background if this was not xenophobia?
@@AlexandruVodahe read out statistics he didn't reveal any biases you clown.
Mary Lou wearing a hijab and speaking at a Muslim meeting was a massive middle finger to their core supporters and majority in Ireland.
How?
@@umerbsr most people are against Islam and it's Draconian teachings. Constant terror attacks around the world in the name of islam is pissing people off
Muslim Irish people are just as Irish as Protestant Irish people, or Catholic Irish People.
You're just racist
Muslim Irish people are just as Irish as Protestant Irish people, or Catholic Irish People.
You're just racist
They just know who's going to be the new majority living in Ireland so be quiet and go out with your "partner" and walk your dog , while we take care of our country.
So, this is a COLLAPSE of a party accordding to you? WELCOME to the SENSATIONALISY media space!
the word "collapse" exists 0 times in the video.
So take your meds mate, you are imagining things again
@@1996Horst Did you read the thumbnail or listen to the introduction when she said "rise and fall"?????
@@1996Horst I mean the thumbnail calls it their collapse?
@@objectdefiance4027 "RISE AND FALL" CONTAINS COLLAPSE 0 TIMES
like get real mateand the Thumbnail of mine says "Rise and fall" so wtf are you on about?
Also thumbnails are clickbait and have nothing to do with the content of the video? What a shoker.
take your meds
@@withersheep9009 mine does not... It has "rise and fall". Maybe they have multiple using youtubes new feature of changing thumbnails?
Irish voter here there's a few things untouched on here.
1. In the last year SF have increasingly supported issues in line with the incumbent government and then subsequently backtracked and done a 180 when their polling numbers went down. (Hate speech bill, migration policies, the mentioned referenda). This has led to voters seeing them as shills who will say whatever they need to, in order to retain / gain more power.
2. The party had it's roots in Nationalism and the idea of an independant Ireland, but increasingly post-covid they have started to seem more globalist / pro-EU, leading to a lot of their grassroots voters abandoning them.
3. Sinn Feinn post 2008 have receiced many votes as an alternative to the stagnant status quo as more of a vote against the incumbent parties instead of a vote for SF. However as they've shifted further left their stance on many policies are virtually the same as FG, the main center left party.
4. Over the last decade they've moved increasingly away from the working class and completely abandoned them in favor of younger left wing voters. This has left working class people & conservatives without a party to vote for, leading to a huge increase in grassroots independants and several new conservative parties being founded in the last decade (Aontu, IFP, Independant Ireland & the National Party).
Being pro-working class & anti-capitalist class is the definition of "leftwing." It seems like this was a long way to say SF has become more rightwing & people feel frustrated that there is no electoral escape from the grip of neoliberal capitalism.
@@dr.zoidberg8666 Don't know where all the capitalist stuff came from but no SF have moved further and further left on every issue since 08. Used to be anti austerity nationalist, now they're just another left wing globalist party.
Sinn Fien SMASHED! 🔨
Sinn Fein is an opposition party with no mandate to govern and don't differ much in policy to the other 2 main parties. Their incompeence is hidden in the North by the system of mandatory coalition. With regards to removing links with the IRA, many members are "former volunteers", with hints that the army cuncil still has a say in the parties direction, further backed by their ability to keep Saoradh from taking up arms in the North. On the global stage the threat of IRA violence helped keep EU focus on an all Island focus during negotiations.
Sinn Feins position on immigration and other policies is a difficult line to walk as they have a more liberal base in the North and a more anti-immigration line to toe in the Republic
wasn't that a chinese dance or something 🤔
"Ireland is full" from the country that has less people now than it did 200 years ago.
200 years ago, 3 generations lived in 1 house without electricity or plumbing
Do you expect all the infrastructure in Ireland to be able to just accommodate a large influx in population???? Squeezing people into a field and feeding them potatoes with a few stone walls and a thatch roof isn't really an option
@@conorbyrne7474 So build the infrastructure. Saying there isn't the infrastructure so they have to let less people in is such a stupid NIMBY argument.
@@potato_nugget England and Scotland have several times the population they had 2 centuries ago and their living standards are far better. Ireland's population is expected to reach those numbers again in the 2030s anyway, are their standards going to crash to 1840s-levels once that happens? That's a ridiculous argument to justify keeping foreigners out.
Sinn Fein has always been the party who never had solid policies or feasible plans, they were famously awful at proposing bugets for how they might run Ireland if they got into power (practically always having some "tax the leprauchauns for their gold" level of silliness) and really only did the "see those two, FF & FG, see how they made a mistake..... well if WE were in power we would have never made that mistake, we promise" type petulent opposition.
Hum, what about a we do want more immigrants and refugees, but we want local governments to decide if they want to accept anyone in first kind of stance?
That way people won't be sent back, good from a progressive point of view, but immigrants won't end up on the streets before a local government decides to accept them in, meaning that they're presumably okay with them.
And local self determination tends to be popular in rural communities.
"Brilliant"
Female face & voice.
Thank you
Thank you
Professor Rog
75 yo retired American university marketing professor
Remember your audience
They get bored. They tuneout very easily.
Sinn Féin : increases seats and vote share in both local and EU elections, doubling their seats in the EU
TLDR: Sinn Féin is declining!
Sorry what?
This is beyond clickbait, it’s just lying. A party that increased their seats and vote share isn’t declining.
They did worse than the polling would suggest, which is why people are calling it "a decline". Even RTÉ called it a decline. And the "republican" (nationalism) vote has split with more radical parties springing up and stealing what you'd expect to be SF's vote - but SF isn't right-wing and these new parties are.
Increase in seats from previous elections, decline in support from previous polls
It wouldn't be TL:DR if they didn't call everything from slightly underperforming expectations to the total breakdown of a country a "collapse."
@@Adderkleet Fianna Fáil is a Republican Party though. It’s just the right wing Republican Party, SF are the left equivalent.
How can any Irish person vote for Sinn Fein, a party thats sits in British parliament in the north of this island and passes kings law on his subjects Sinn Fein are tratiors Erin Go Bradgh we will rise again
Local and EU elections say nothing about the support of most bigger parties throughout Europe. Firstly, the number of voters that cast a ballot is easily more than 50% lower than in National elections. People are more concerned about what is going on in their neighbourhoods and thus vote for local parties and local candidates. Secondly, they cast a protest vote for the Eu elections, but they really vote different in national elections.