"We're Due For A Correction" In Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction"
He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting.
Lance and I review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan’s Norinchukin Bank and it's announced liquidation of its US Treasury portfolio poses a risk to bond market, the dangers of private investing, and the worrying extent to just how far the S&P 500 is trading above historical valuation averages.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.
#stockmarketcorrection #Norinchukin #marketcorrection
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where can one see the jim dahle interview?
Adam - Nvidia is correcting quite dramatically - can we get Lance on for a quick mid-week update for us panicked retail investors?
*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️of myself because of low finance but I still
believe in God
I'm favoured, $90K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,, all thanks to Ms Ann Marie strunk 😊🎉
Good day all👍🏻 from Australia 🇦🇺. I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance she is giving them ! What way can I get to her exactly ?
Such information we don’t get from must TH-camrs, how can I get to her. ?
She's always active on Whats~App... 🎉
Lance "Nothing to see here" Roberts.
Congrats on ringing the bell, Adam! Very cool!
Polls exist to shape public opinion, not reflect it.
Not to mention, they are bought and paid for.
Exactly!
Like everything :( @@mschroed99
Love the statistical evaluation provided. Sooooo much better and more informative as to segmenting the market with realistic expectations. Lance has definitely done his homework and sincerely appreciate his analysis.
Adam, you are the best influencer!
The alarming thing with Norinchukin bank was not the selling of bonds but how they are planning to cover for these losses with CLO's. If it is a trend globally with banks, where they have to sell safer assets to chase high risk, high yields, we are one step closer to another GFC
Lots of good information. Nevertheless, I believe interview times should be cut down to a maximum of forty five minutes to one hour.
I like the long length, allows for proper comment
Yes
Adam and Lance -- the best! Your Saturday show is the one that I look forward to every week!
thanks guys and yes the Simple Advisor tool is awesome!
Thank you both for all your hard work ❤
It's all fun and games until the 10% correction turn into 30% and you bought all the dips and then it's down 50% and doesn't recover for 10 years.
That happened when?
@@curtisstewart31791929 took 15 years to recover to the same level. In the 1970’s stocks didn’t do anything
Then Lance will just say, "No one could have seen this coming" and will justify taking his fee because he only lost 49%... or something. 😂
@@curtisstewart3179 2002 and 2009
It’s not Saturday until I’ve listened to Adam and Lance!
Great information shared in this video. Thank you.
And then it gets even better he goes on to talk about beware of peoples narratives. Then he talks about you know people have been in money market at 5 1/2% but you know the markets up 13 1/2% really the market. I love everybody, including you talk about the market you mean the S&P 500 Why don't you ask him how his portfolios have done against the benchmark because I know they're not very good /
At this moment, if you have a well diversified non-correlated portfolio. You were lucky to be up all the Gaines have taken place in a handful of stocks in the S&P 500. That's why it's up and one in particular so let's get real here you need to challenge him on some of his narrative/and I mean really who would need an investment advisor what he's really telling you you need to be in the S&P 500 forget everything else and especially forget his portfolios because they are not beating the S&P 500 not even close they might not even be beating equal weight RSP
It's the reason why the Japanese banks is selling. Not the amount...
Lance, you’re a market timer and subscriber of recentism. Most likely very talented! The rest of us have to take the long view with our portfolios. You ask why people are buying Treasuries at 4.5 in this market? The answer is fairly obvious, but if you need further clarification let me know.
Lance knows his stuff when it comes from anything market related outside geo-political or international financial/economic changes and events. When it comes to these subjects his objectivity is not showing and he is very dismissive of changes in a world that is evolving faster and quite possibly more predominantly than he can imagine, as is much of Wall Street. The idea should be to live in the present, but keep an open mind to the future even if that future may not be what you want to see come about. This goes for life and investing.
NVDA has dropped 50% 12 times in its history.
Soon to be 13.
Adam, one time on your former channel you and Lance got into a discussion of using permanent life insurance as a type of personal bank. I believe that Lance uses his policy for things like real estate investing. I'd be very interested if you do a show on that again with Lance.
Been a fan for a long time. I just want to say I've been following Lance since before he was on your show and I look forward to these Saturday discussions tremendously.
Thank you both!!
I can't thank you enough because you keep me sane during these crazy times
Thank you Lance and Adam
Everything is a nothing burger to lance until shit hits the fan then he will say " who would have seen this coming?" 😅
I have to say this again and agin , the target is 6100 on the snp and its continuing higher , even with the underlying factors beinh negative , nothing is pulling this down , investors and hedge funds are scared of shorting this market no crash or correction is coming
If this is like the 90's great bull run, then we are still in the first act or possibly at the beginning of the second, which means there are still several years to continue running before the next major downturn.
People confuse Main Street and Wall Street. Just because Main Street is struggling, it doesn’t necessarily affect the markets. Also, while inflation has impacted people, I’m still seeing restaurants and stores packed, unlike in 2007-2010. Also, I truly believe that AI is going to revolutionize many industries and corporate profits will soar. The wild card is taxes are about to skyrocket next year. I know my household will take at least a $10k a year hit when the rates revert to pre 2017 levels.
I always enjoy this echo chamber free conversation. The idea is to accumulate information to make your own conclusion.
Friday was a pretty ho-hum choppy triple-witching day.
Nvidia was down
Quadruple witching.
Timestamps would be nice for those of us that can't stick around for the whole interview. Other than that, thank you for the content. Very insightful and informative.
Lance , You can tell you love what you do ! Adam thanks for having the best guests . I watched a video about index universal life . There’s so much financial information out there it makes my head spin .
These episodes with Lance is always a good listen!
Not doing anything earns you 5%+ yield
Yes but with real inflation running at something like 10-18% a year then 5% is peanuts.
Great deep dive discussion. Thank you.
Higher capital gains while the currency is required to be debased seems like double 2x theft
Bitcoin is hard money for hard work. I keep my sats in a coldWallet
Yes and then add in the estate tax exemption could roll back from $12 million to $5.45 million and not be adjusted for debasement inflation which a severe penalty and loss of $
I used to listen to investment show on radio - Bob Brinker - Moneytalk
They obviously did not see Bill Maher’s clip on the latest poll.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Congrats Adam!
I agree.
However, I remember last time we heard this it took like two or three months for the correction to arrive. I think we still have another month going up minimum, and possibly even two.
Which makes sense because if everyone thinks the correction has begun after the first big sell-off days, then everyone starts shorting right away which costs market makers too much. So they keep faking it out, burning bears to the ground and continuing to pump. Then when everyone is scared to short and short positions have been reduced, they dump it fast and hard.
Conversely, if I'm wrong and retail keeps FOMOing in, then perhaps they smack down a 15% dump in a few weeks. Let us see.
You’re right about that… by virtue of the market’s nature, it tends to lure in and manipulate beginner traders so as to exploit their emotions, albeit not purposefully so… just the nature of the non-human beast versus how we humans see it. Though I certainly agree there is money to be made anywhere one can identify one side’s weakness and exploit it for profit. Such as sellers failing to keep price pinned to the lows of a move and causing a sharp tradable rebound or a failure from buyers to keep a key support at the highs of a rally leading to a lot of selling pressure for days or weeks, followed possibly by subsequent failures akin to the correction last October where we had 3 smaller corrections inside of 1 larger correction. One can tell when it’s happening by watching the consistency of one side over the other… like “who is currently consistently failing and who is consistently pushing?”.
Yep
Are you in a hurry?
Adam - the accredited investor rules changed a few years ago. An individual can claim that given their backgrounds/expertise they can waive the earnings and net worth requirements to be classified as an accredited investor.
Also, love Lance, but my experience as a tax cpa is way different than his regarding opportunity zone funds. Those investors that invested in OZ funds pre-covid, saw some of the best returns I have ever seen on a k1 in my career. We’re talking 2 and 3x returns in a single year. Because most of them were buying and updating/building apartments right before covid and many were on the outskirts of town. I’m assuming the opportunity today has come and passed, but many OZ investors have crushed it for 6 or 7 years now
The OZ was/is a scam that allowed many of the tech titans and pals to sell out of their stock tax free and buy up super cheap real estate (after they delivered pallets of bricks and molotovs for BLM to burn down entire neighborhoods to lower property values.)
The move from long duration (low interest rate funded) tech stocks to short duration real assets tax free was so beautifully timed it almost seems like a conspiracy. 🤔😉
Because it was.
Lance is going to be the last one to admit the rug pull once it hits. He's either blind or talking his books.
Great interview Adam. Lance has the most realistic, accurate appraisals of markets every week. Love how he challenges the excessively negative and unrealistic bear cases with good evidence.
Lance: permanent shift in valuations, a new paradigm….gee, when have I heard this before?
Yup.
If you are so sure he is wrong, show him. Bet the other way.
Lance has the most level headed ongoing advice more so than anyone I have come across. It’s so helpful for investors you really known you stuff thank you.
Zero predictive value.
Nate silver (538 founder) has been ringing the alarm on biden, like he did for Hilary in 2016. And all his twitter replies accuse him of being MAGA 😂.
Who buys treasuries and holds? The guy who said to buy them 6 months ago lol.
Lance?
@@waterdd1 yup. He said TLT I believe but he was on the treasuries bender for a while. Then said he’s holding for 24 months
Adam, consider a show on the "Swiss Debt Brake". Should the U.S. consider such a reform since there is nothing limiting government spending or money creation? The dollar has lost 93%of it's value since 1913(creation of the Fed), 50% since 1971(went off the gold standard). The U.S. needs to return to sound money.
Great interview today
In the late 1920's they often spoke of a permanently high plateau, that any correction would be a minor one. In 1989 they began to believe that because the JCB had negative interest rates it was impossible for Japanese companies to ever be overvalued. Again in 2000 there was this hyper-bullish narrative that somehow this time was different and these extreme valuations were in whatever words they used back then "the new normal".
It's nice to see that fine tradition carried on, and don't get me wrong, I absolutely see the logic in it - you make way more money being ultra bullish in most years. But what happened to the markets the last time they were excessively overvalued and you had a sovereign debt crisis?
86 billion is .25% of 34 trillion not .0025%. So not massive but not insignificant as a net seller. Just sayin
538 polls are the worst. They predicted Hillary would. At least quote Rasmussen.
She did win the popular Vote. The Polls don't reflect the human machinations at work behind the curtain. We can see now. Voter Suppression, Voter Roll Purges, Un Tallied Ballots. Yes means No. Butterfly Ballots. What Tricks is Your State Using this Election?
22 States routinely engage in Election fraud. Pay attention. Act Local.
Yeah and a red wave in 2022
I will watch this in the crepuscular hours.
Could the disconnect from Gold help cause nominal PE on S&P? If that the case, could we then draw an expansion in gov debt and fed balance sheet back to nominal PE rise
It's smart to buy some hedge when the premium is low.
Adam you have on your channel very wise people for most of the time. How it is that you having this character ? He does not fit to your normal guests. When I hear such idiotic statements from him like wages rising being good signal it makes me sick. When this is just a sign of ever speeding up inflation from the creation of currency by fed and other commercial banks. Very often he is repeating bs taken straight from MMT.
Which is why I’ve asked several times to have a show on angel/crowd investing. What tax forms have to be filed, how does the conversion to stock work, etc.
Adam there are times when it would be nice to have a split screen with both of you on it.
In listening to you all these years, you should do what I've seen on a few utubes. Let somebody interview you because you have it more right you and Lynn Alden should do an hour of somebody interviewing you and then I won't need to watch anything else for the next six months.
Can you guys do a show how to avoid the pitfall of mediocrity in investing?
Look up videos of Jack Bogle giving advice, do NOT follow advice from this channel.
@@JRRob3wn I knew Jack. Meet him in the late 90's. He would be so depressed if he could see America today and especially the society at large. I once asked him which decade was his favorite and he said "The 80's were America's best decade in every way".
I love hearing “correction”. This should be repeated everyday. We are living 5x-10x financially inflated unreal times and should be CORRECTED! Thank you for great program
During a crack-up boom, corrections are when the indexes only go up .25% daily instead of 1%. There's nothing in the monetary policy right now that is restrictive. People are using money market dividends like they used Heloc's in the early 2000's.
Powell, we need to cut rates, markets only going up .25% a day. We need 4-5% per week.
1:40:00 Nvidia is overvalued. 45 forward pe. But he buys costco... With a freaking 50 forward pe. You can't make up this level of intellectual dishonesty
He savagely and condescendingly dismissed NVDIA 18 months ago and predicted it would crash, it was a flash in the pan, overvalued etc. I think the P/E was around 80 then, but then their profits continued to skyrocket. Lance and this channel are a total waste of time.
Lance is the best!
Does adding 10 million new people into population affect economy?
It does when they bring minimal skill sets.
stressing public services, quality of life, housing prices, medical system, yes it effects everything but it's forbidden to speak about until they complete the destruction
US is a huge country. In the UK we have 1m a year coming in 😣
You both are encouraging people to time the market by saying corrections are just around the corner. Stay invested or risk missing the best up days.
That’s the MO of this show, market timing (gambling) and ignoring 30+ years of research on how middle class investors should be deploying their money. I mean if they had gotten the AI play right I at least would give them some credit, but they’ve gotten literally everything wrong for the past 3 years. Yet somehow people still eat this crap up.
Banking is a confidence game, and Lance tows the line like all smart people involved in the Financial system. Norinchukin is a very large institution and has significant losses and that is why they are selling the bonds. Their balance sheet is only going to get worse.
Congrats on the ringing the closing bell. Really would like to see new people interview. Some example ( cliff assness, kuppy, le shrub, Dario perkins) best thing they don’t call recession coming every single year, if they wrong they accept it. They provide much more alpha then rosenberg, Stephanie pomboy and all other doomers. No disrespect to them but they don’t accept they were wrong since 2022.
Yes mulptile expansion in dropping interest rate is justified but not at present interest rate
So current PE is not justified and reasonable correction take you to PE OF -15
One day this channel says S&P 9000, the next S&P 900. You know there are meds for that, right?
This channel is a joke, the comment section from faux intellectual middle class investors that think they are genius prognosticators is depressing.
Followed Dr. Dahle from the early days… but WCI heavily touts “set it and forget it”.
i have to disagree, markets will rally into the election and selloff aggressively into mid sept / oct, then rally post election
In the run up to the referendum on Brexit, the market sold off somewhat.
Tbills outperformed TLT by 11% in the past 12 months.
LOL, the ads running on this promote the exact opposite of the lesson. I'm sticking with Adam & company
Any sense oh how much of S&P earnings is coming from resilient recurring revenue models that have good pricing power? Eg companies like Microsoft. Might indicate a more sticky floor under earnings today and strong growth prospects compared to historic levels.
When Lance said expecting a market correction then it will happen...the question is when??..one way to profit the fall of S&P 500 is to buy inverse EFTs...can you ask him about it? That's a way win against the market for retail investor like us.. Another question is what sectors do money rotation benefit during the crash?..Love watching you guys every week...
😂 Lance is gonna keep dismissing absolutely everything until the market does something he doesn't expect... and then he'll just arrogantly say "No one could have seen this coming"... because HE refused to see it even when it was coming right at him.
Had a nice chat with a REAL financial advisor last week. (Not one of the Thoughtful Money guys.) We had a very frank conversation about the New Harbor guys and their nice humility, vs. the RIA folks complete and sheer utter arrogance. Shameful and disgusting.
It was a great conversation. That why they're gettingy business and Lance never, EVER will.
It's rich for Lance "pay me to churn your portfolio" Roberts to warn about the source of advice.
He charges 2% a year to initiate capital gains taxes on your portfolio, avoid anything new like AI stocks and buy such obscure stocks that middle class investors would never (🙄) think of buying like Altria. It amazes me how he’s still in business.
I have to call out those who say Adam &Lance have been dead wrong on predicting the market! I recall a dozen or so times both stating that they aim to sell on the way up and on the way down and not the apex of the bell curve, just the approach needed in this market. In addition, Lance has stated over and over and warned “Any strong conviction one way or the other without flexibility is foley.”
@1:04:32
believing that increasing valuation theory to reflect a new norm is the same thing as saying "its different this time"... just a matter of the 'greater fools theory' reflecting greater fools. Should call that chart; the rising complacency index
Lance, but can’t some good private equity deals be too small for the Sequoias. I do take your point wholeheartedly.
And tarot cards say I'm going to get lucky. In other words, reading charts have about the same value as reading cards. Let's get back to real thoughtful money.
Lance - your risk probability analysis 9 @1:15:00 starts assuming that we are sitting at the mid point for risk. Yet you just spent the first hour telling us how we are overbought which would imply we are already toward the right hand side of the probability curve. Therefore the probability of a negative sigma event can not be evenly distributed as you assume. There is more than 2.14 % probability of a crisis. You need to incorporate Baeysian analysis into you risk management process.
Thank you Adam and Lance
Well financial advisors operate on getting that 1.5% of assets under management no matter what. You never see it clearly on statements being taken out. When you're dealing with other people's money that's a great business to be in.
Even in the polls… Are you kidding me!? Nobody is voting for Biden 🤣🤣🤣
Depends where you live. I know tons of brain dead DC and Marylanders that will happily vote for him.
You guys are hilarious, of course there is going to be a correction and here is what is going to happen. You guys predict a correction, it will inevitably happen at some point, you will tell everyone that you predicted it. It's the same as a broken clock being right twice a day. In the mean time if you sell everything off you will miss out on any gains coming until the correction. You guys all crack me up.
If you guys knew anything you'd take your own advice and be rich beyond your wildest dreams instead of peddling your goofy TH-cam theories.
Two hours! I could have listened to this at a faster speed. I did process a fair amount of garden produce before stopping at the midpoint.
I recall several of your pundits, including Lance, Sven and others, disparaging "retail" and "day trader" investors for selling the peaks and buying the dips in the past, and not buying and holding, and now they are al doing it, playing the market that is, as they say. Perhaps pundits are stuck in the old ways and have something to learn from the market. That said, I appreciate all the positions. In 2008, I was told by a major brokerage that many of the "old rules" no longer applied. Seems to be the case now as well.
"Did ya get kicked out of yer house? *huhhuh*" .....shut up Lance
Oh it’s not nonsense. There was an agreement and a practice. It’s history. And now it’s changed. That matters. If the question is “matters how much” then that’s legit. But don’t pretend it did not happen.
Lance is right. Lawyers do all the wrong things! Thankfully my husband’s investing behavior saves us, and we have a financial advisor. But I have my own smallish account, and so far, I am ok, though not even close to S&P returns. I worked for a law partner, a brilliant man, who sold everything at the literal bottom in March 2009. He stayed away from the market until 2018.
It’s fine though. I have my own list of the worst clients by profession.
Great interview. Maybe one day I’ll listen to Lance and do a little better.
"The sp500 is up 13% this year" vs "treasuries are only yielding 5%". I'm sure there's an investment out there that would get me 300% too. So what? I KNEW last year when I bought that treasuries would get me 5%. 13% or 300% only counts as an alternate to treasuries if I can actually access the gains with a risk similar to treasuries, otherwise you're comparing apples to tacos. Treasuries don't require much management. I'm still working on my first $million and I need my day job to pay the bills. I can't afford the time to de-risk an investment in the S&P.
Yes I did think that comment from Lance was a classic example of 20:20 hindsight
It would be great to have Danielle D Martino booth debate Lance on your show
What would that prove?
Lance's condescending tone would completely change if he actually had to defend his ideas to anyone. Likely he'd throw a fit and storm off like most narcissists when they're challenged. Would love to see him vs Luke Gromen.
As usual the best session of the week.
"unforced errors"? Adam are you a tennis fan?
lance is fantastic on short term market forecasts but then he gets over his skiis. tsla was such a bad vc investment that musk had to put more of his own money into the company to avoid bankruptcy. worked out ok but I wouldn't be happy before he did that. guys like adam and me don't talk out of our ass
I agree, a correction soon or perhaps even now-ish, during the boring low-news weeks might not be a half bad manifestation… albeit, I imagine we might need something to give us a little nudge in that direction as we have been so bullish that with this much momentum, I could see us simply grinding around near ATHs for a couple weeks or more… kind of the same way we did prior to last meaningful correction where the top of the rally became “busy” and “frothy”, and then there was a trigger to get us going to the downside. I wouldn’t mind a correction akin to October of last year but it’s probably too soon for that… I imagine the same will happen this year simply because election is around that time as well as the desire/possibility of rate cuts - so makes one wonder… 💭 perhaps if bad news is good news, good news will be bad news around that time? Perhaps the AI mania will keep us strong and make the election less relevant? How far will NVDA really go… nobody knows… and there is the kicker! We could go to zero or infinity for all I know… lol… and the further away from reality we get, the more extravagant the outcomes. So let’s see what we get… it’s going to be a fun summer-to-new-year time. I am a day trader so I don’t really care either way… I’m too small of a fish in the grand scheme of things, I just need to know what to watch out for so I don’t trade against the market with strong opposing bias.
Me thinketh it's great and thanks Adam for being Lance's cautious second in Command because he is clearly a prudent Captain of the Ship who has his eye clearly focused on the destination as well as eye., and ear out for.......icebergs!@!?😉😁
next two weeks, slowness to the downside.