China Historian Predicts Xi Jinping’s Next Move - Rana Mitter | Endgame
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 มิ.ย. 2024
- Thank you to The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School for providing support for this episode.
Visit the link below to know more about research, ideas, and leadership programs for a more peaceful world:
www.belfercenter.org/
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The future remains a mystery, yet glimpses of it can be found in the echoes of the past.
In this episode, Endgame speaks with China historian Rana Mitter to gain insight into the minds of Chinese leaders. The discussion covers potential military action in Taiwan, the future of US-China relations, and the implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for the region and the world.
About the Guest:
Professor Rana Mitter is an ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. He was a Professor of the History and Politics of Modern China at the University of Oxford and the Director of the China Centre. Rana is also the author of several books, including “China’s Good War” (2020), “Forgotten Ally” (2013), “A Bitter Revolution” (2004), and “The Manchurian Myth” (2000).
About the Host:
Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian entrepreneur, educator, and Honorary Professor of Politics and International Relations at the School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham. He is also a visiting scholar at The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University (2022-2024) and a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
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Content:
00:00 - Intro
03:21 - Rana Mitter’s background
04:33 - ‘Forgotten Ally’ book
06:37 - Political liberalism in China: A possibility
11:31 - US-China Competition
16:51 - What could potentially happen in Taiwan?
24:55 - Is China winning from the current world wars?
28:28 - Belt and Road Initiative
40:25 - De-dollarization
44:58 - Should China remain open?
49:42 - Will AI exacerbate climate change?
53:24 - China-led global order
Does anyone know the podcast that Rana Mitter mentions? what is it? feelsoft? filsof?
It’s “Face-Off: The US vs China”. Here's the link to the podcast: podcasts.apple.com/tw/podcast/face-off-the-u-s-vs-china/id1734890307
Sejarah china sudah terbentuk Ribuan tahun yang lalu, mereka telah melewati perang tiga negara yang salah satu peristiwa sangat besar pengaruhnya terhadap sejarah china , mereka telah meliwati banyaknya kerajaan kerajaan kecil yang saling berperang memperrbutkan wilayah , mereka petnah juga mengalami 2 jaman kebesaran dan ke Emasan pada dinasti Tang dan Ming , mereka juga pernah di perintah oleh bangsa Asing Mongolia dan Mancu. Semua berproses dengan Ajaran yang melekat dan berakar di setiap masyarakat China siapapun suku dan daerah. Ini yang mengikat mereka sampai sekarang siapapun yang memerintah.
Masyarakat China telah belajar dari sejarah mereka atas peristiwa sejarah mereka. Mereka terbiasa di perintah oleh sebuah kekuatan tunggal sebagai pemersatu siapapun Rajanya , apapun dinasti yang memerintah meskipun itu dari luar ( mongolia, mancuria) selama untuk kesejahteraan rakyat Seluruh masyarakat China mereka akan mempercainys. Bukan siapa yang memerintah. Jika tidak bukan Amerika atau barat yang akan memberontak dan mengulingkanya tapi seluruh rakyat China. Itu sudah terbuktk dalam sejarah China yang panjang. Jadi sekarang Partai komunis yang memerintah , mereka tidak perduli selama membawa mereka lebih baik dan aman dan sejahtera mereka akan menerimanya. Mereka hanya berpatokan hidup dari akar budaya nenek moyang mereka di pandu oleh ajaran yang di wariskan sejarah mereka KHONG HU CU. Itu terbukti sampai sekarang Meskipun partai yang berkuasa Partai komunis tetapi di China angota partai komunis hanya kurang lebih tidak lebih dari 8 % , ajaran komunis, Agama yang ada di dunia tidak akan dapat menghapua ajaran yang mereka wariskan turun menurun yang ada saling melengkapi untuk menjadikan keharmonisan masyarakat Tiongkok itu sendiri dan tidak untuk saling mendominasi.
Sepertinya itu inti dari masyarakat China di manapun.
ingat revolusi kebudayaan Mao? semua kepercayaan dan kultur juga tradisi China diberangus. Maknya kan paska kejadian itu masyarakat jadi tidak beradab, buang air dimana saja dll.
Ah masa anggota PKT hanya 8%, dapat data darimana?
Nanti khayalan mu doang 😂
@@Simply_amazing cari tau pasti kamu bisa. Jika kamu pandai sedikit saja kamu tidak termakan narasi dari permainan kata kata yang sudah ada yang mengatur.
Pusat dan pabrik itu semua banyak yang Tau bukan rahasia umum ada di NED yang di kendalikan oleh CIA.
Semua, semua propaganda di tujukan untuk siapa dan untuk kasus apa lalu didistribusikan ke semua unsur pengeraknya agar focus dan masif dgn tujuan tertentu.
Meliputi media yang mengurita, budak budak media mereka yang ada di seluruh dunia.
Kata kata Laut Natuna , kelebihan kapasitas , Ambisi , membahayakan keamanan nasional , menurut aturan tantanan internasional , Nafigasi bebas internasional. Kata kata yang di ciptakan untuk pembenaran kepentinganya sendiri tapi mereka yang melamgar kalau istilah di dunia untuk mengejek mereka Standard ganda.
Jika pandai dikit sajah bisa di lihat kasus pengulingan sadam husein dengan isu senjata pemusnah masal , suriah , libiya , dan terlalu banyak disebutkan adalah ulah permainan kotor mereka..
Taiwan Province, CHINA.
Taiwan Province, Republic of China 🇹🇼🇹🇼🇹🇼
@@warmonger82taiwan is part of china
@@warmonger82taiwan is part of china
@@warmonger82taiwan is part of china since Qing dynasty
Republic of 👉🏼China 👈🏼
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
little-India, province of British-Raj
19:32 Kakek saya dari sisi Papa, seorang Hakka totok kelahiran Guangdong, memiliki saudara kandung di Tiongkok dan Taiwan.
Perang Dunia 2 Tiongkok-Jepang dan Perang saudara Tiongkok benar-benar memberikan dampak yang luar biasa pada keluarganya.
Dia yang tertua di antara saudaranya. Adik laki-lakinya, (叔公 saya）direkrut untuk bergabung dengan NRA (Tentara Kuomintang) dan melawan Tentara Kekaisaran Jepang. Singkat cerita, dia terpaksa pindah ke Taiwan setelah kekalahan Nasionalis. Sayangnya, dia terpisah dari adiknya, (姑婆） saya yang memilih untuk tinggal di Guangdong.
Saya bahkan belum lahir saat itu. Saya tidak yakin apakah mereka masih tetap berhubungan satu sama lain selama masa-masa sulit seperti ini.
Tapi lihatlah, saya berhasil mempertemukan mereka di hari pernikahan saya di Jakarta pada tahun 2016. Ada sekitar 10-15 keturunan mereka dari Tiongkok dan Taiwan. Itu adalah momen yang sangat indah melihat mereka bertemu satu sama lain. Saya tidak melihat apa pun kecuali interaksi hangat di antara mereka.
Siapa yang waras yang ingin berperang setelah melihat hal ini?
Saya juga mengunjungi Taiwan bulan lalu. Itu adalah kunjungan kedua saya dalam 11 tahun. Saya terkesan dengan tempat itu pada tahun 2013. Namun saya tidak begitu terkesan pada tahun 2024. Semuanya terasa tua, stagnan, dan ga ada rasa optimisme. Itu pengamatan saya selama 10 hari saya tinggal di sana..
Saya yakin stasiun HSR buatan China di Jakarta terlihat lebih bagus dibandingkan stasiun HSR/kereta Taiwan mana pun. Belum lagi kecepatannya juga bisa lebih cepat (KCIC : 350 kpj vs KC Taiwan : 300 kpj). 😂.
Kalo Taiwan sampe nekat ngotot lawan PLA Tiongkok, Saya tidak melihat jalan realistis menuju kemenangan dalam perang terbuka baik dengan / tanpa intervensi militer Amerika. Melek matalah dan lihat busuknya Amerika dan antek2nya untuk numbalin Ukraine buat kepentingan mereka ke Rusia! Tidak ada untungnya Taiwan ambil jalan naif seperti itu!
This guy is very western when he keep talking about freedom, liberal democracy. He doesn't really understand China. A more reliable person to talk about China is Prof. Ken Hammond. He is a history professor on China in the US.
Another person would be Kishore Mahbubani.
I've been watching Gita's interviews for quite some time and his foreign (non-Indonesian) guests are western-leaning. I'd like him to invite some Chinese (e.g. academics) or non-western leaning people. It's particularly important to hear what the Chinese think about the world in our current situation.
@@hitthedeck4115 sometimes I think the well educated Chinese men are so patriotic. And they don’t have to. They should join the American Academy to decipher the Chinese history, and tell the people the real history. In doing so they are still patriotic., because they avoided the wrong people to tell you false Chinese history
@@yanghailun Well, if they aren't patriotic, most likely they are not going to want to learn the right version of the Chinese history. There are so many misinformation around and its easy to adopt false narrative for the sake of being "balanced". What I am worried is the nationalistic ones that also biased towards fake or white washed narrative to fit their own extreme views. As for a true China expert in the west, they do exist, but they don't get very important post or exposure. Some of them are even in the gov, but they also do not get their voice heard due to the dominance of neocon/lib in the west.
China expected to "be liberal like the West".
Taiwan "a robust democracy". With brawls bteaking out in Taiwan parliament?
Invite Martin Jacques to talk to this "historian".
The Western model in reality and in the future is for the West only. China has its own style of governance and its own economic style. Following western assumptions is not going to be accurate and will be completely misplaced. China is going through a big transition. Its past is a prediction for its future but its future is also moulded by its interactions with the West, principally US. If US presents itself as a friend, China will respond accordingly and develop accordingly as well. If US presents as a combatant, obviously China will respond accordingly and will not be in the direction that will be favourable to the West. So what will the future of China be? It depends on how the West treats China. Treat it well and China will respond favourable. Be combative and China will likewise respond in kind.
Gita, your podcasts always very real without any geopolitical motive unlike those western media BS hidden hands agenda. Blessing for your good health to continue your wonderful journey.👍
Hahahaha...
This channel always asking so called "expert" from western side.
Don't ask China expert who is not Chinese, especially from west.
There are so many real Chinese expert from China who also understand the West, why ?? Because the western is still quite new civilization.
To understand China deeply, learn the language and history, and stop using English perspective. 😂🤭
😂😂😂 agreed... especially when I heard he was from England... so remember BN(O) passport... should be inviting prof. Jeffrey sachs,, prof. Wolff,, prof. Kishore,, george yeo (former foreign minister singapore),, jayant bhandari 😂😂😂
as a chinese, i actrully enjoy videos like this one from time to time, as comedy😂
Shame for you guys ignorance to leave such impolite comments to an objective scholar. I think Professor Rana Mitter's Chinese even better than you when he said 小康社会 and 共同富裕. He also mentioned that Chinese was more worry of disorder and China has no willing to engaged in an outside war, which are definitely true.
@@glumour3081 Gita has interviewed Prof Kishore years ago, can you please check before leaving a message?
@@Study-mq4qn its talk Asean... China ASEAN ?
Another person you can invite is Martin Jacques.
Hanya berniat menaruh masukkan untuk dipertimbangkan oleh Bapak Gita Wirjawan nanti🙏: Nanti coba untuk ajak dialog bersama tokoh-tokoh akademisi, yang punya sudut pandang yang "berlawanan" dari perspektif kebarat-baratan soal China. Contoh: pakar ekonomi Prof. Michael Hudson, sejarawan Prof. Ken Hammond, pakar ekonomi dan filsafat Prof. Cheng Enfu, pakar ekonomi Isabella M. Webber dan Prof. Deborah Brautigam, dan pakar filsafat Gabriel Rockhill.
What a treat. Professor Mitter is one of the most learned and reasoned voices in the western conversation on China.
Damaged brains see everything as damaging 😢😢
Terima kasih sudah memberikan tayangan yang menambah ilmu pengetahuan Pak Git.
Among the very short list of remarkable conversations, I’ve had to privilege to experience. Thank you. Best wishes. Among the blessings of our cosmos may Peace be one.
Gita, keep up the fantastic job!
Except for those coming from Taiwan, Hong Kong, these TH-camrs are delivering their thoughts about modern day China from a westernized culture, religious belief standpoint. The entire Far East from Polynesia Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Indochina states of Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia to Burma all share some common culture unique to western culture. They are nations with Buddhism, Islamic and Hindu. There is no democracy for these countries, including the Philippines whose religion is both Christian and Islamic. For someone like Wirjawan to put things into the westernized world's perspective, you are bound to come to one one kind of conclusion on any issue - those you prefer to see as an outcome in the western civilization.
Those in Taiwan and Hong Kong are more liberal in thinking and has a deep root in Chinese culture. Things happening, politics in particular, stem from the views of a family culture, handed down years and years of reform under the Chinese traditional teaching of Confucius. Japan and Korea culture have similar roots as history and relationships of the nations with China in the past. So if you haven't been in these countries and live there for a while, but only speak from knowledge you learned through college, or "think tank" organizations (NGOs mostly funded by western countries studying China), you will never give a correct impression of the Chinese leaders, their mentality, or their genuine believes in politics.
Sorry to say this, correct me if I am wrong.
It is a pity to know that Professor Rana who after spending many years in China studying about China and its culture have not even scratched the surface of it, let alone the Chinese Government and its people mindset and thinking. Maybe you would have done better approachinng it without your preconceived Western and Indian biases towards China and it people.
As regarding the students you claimed that were killed in the 1989 Tiananman incident, they were not killed by anyone, instead they died of stampede due to panic and chaos.
As for the Hong Kong National Security Law how could it curtail the freedom of the people only in Hong Kong as you have claimed when the law to protect countries is the same worldwide. Aren't you being bias in your claim about it? And since you also lived and studied in China for many years you must be aware that there are constant threats of unfriendly foreign countries operative that takes every opportunity to instigate young naive students and criminal elements to create instability and insurgency in the country and most of all to sabotage the One Country Two Systems policy. The National Security Law is especially implemented to counter all thes problems. Most importantly was to eliminate the exceptionalism the Western people were enjoying since the time of British Rule which have made them untouchable and beyond the law.
👍👍👍
Well said this professor seems to avoid speaking about the real situation which is the western hegemonic approach to China
Mantap Pak Gita....
9:00
If liberal democracy is measured by the mob fist fighting in the legislature, then Taiwan is indeed a vibrant liberal democracy. I would also add the event that transpired on January 6th, 2021 in US capitol is deemed a insurrection, not democracy.
No, Taiwan is slowly transforming into a fascist regime. A ruling minority is quashing all opposition, not only with instrumentations of the state, but also the power of the mob.
Prof. Mitter talks too much. The word salads that he throws out may sound intelligent to the uninitiated but comes across as lacking focus and clarity to the informed. This is a common trait for most western intellectuals.
Yes, this is typically western so called "expert"... To understand China deeply should speak Chinese, not English speaker... 🤣🤭
I was about to make a similar comment. Although he's obviously spent years studying the history of China some of his statements lack meaningful insight
@@pinglee8476 I was relieved to see that Western scholars are so ignorant of China.😂
subtitle otomatis nya kenapa ga muncul ya pa?
Pak Gita.
Coba cek kutiban dari inteview ekonom Friedrich Hayek dengan El Mercurio 1981.
"Personally, i prefer a liberal dictator to democratic goverment lacking liberalism"
Kehadiran China di pentas dunia samasekali tidak merubah logika ekonomi makro.
Dari sudut pandang yang berbeda..... Like this....
Very insightful conversation. Thanks from West Bengal, India
Certainly lucky to be alive in a nation of mass poverty
Pak terjemahan bahasa Indonesia tidak ada
Luar biasa Pak Gita
Ketika bangsa mu stagnan maka situasi chaos lah yang akan melahirkan pemimpin hebat ,dan bisa kah anda mempertahankan nya ??? Jika tidak pikirkan cara melahirkan pemimpin hebat dari kondisi nyaman, itu tantangan nya
'Way of life in Hong Kong has been heavily constrained since the introduction of the National Security Law' ??? When was this guy last in Hong Kong and how has his freedom been restrained ? Totally ignorant and irresponsible statement and he calls himself a learned academic and expert on Chinese history, what a shame 🤦🏻♂️ !
Sensible choice that is the question
Yolah nian nggak' salah Tiongkok itu Indonesia yg salahtu leadernya nak mintak sedioke Galo dak katek mana ada leadernya tu nggak' bertanggung jawab
19:28 Wait wait wait, what is an "Authoritarian Democracy" LOL?
Seharusnya kita tidak butuh demokrasi , lihat kita sekarang jalan di tempat gara" demokrasi 😂😂😂😂 bulshit demokrasi .....
Kita tdk butuh demokrasi liberal, kita butuh demokrasi terpimpin pancasila
@@Zainal-xn7tc nice
@@Zainal-xn7tc memang apa bedanya so called demokrasi pancasila dengan demokrasi liberal?
@@Ardianto25 cari aja di google
beh, kebetulan banget baru selesai baca trillogy Frank Dikötter tambah ini .. pakemmm
Undang Phil Stutz dong, pak Gita...
When is Pak Gita going to get Pak Obama on his podcast?
You are asking war monger to teach us how to practice colonialism and war ?? 😂🤭
Stop bringing western politician..
Mostly they know how to speak with fancy language .. 🤣🙈
Energy supply is infinite when you consider space
👍👍🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦➕️👏👏‼️✌️
India's largest democracy with socialist countries like China To be honest, the living infrastructure As different as the sky and the abyss This is the opposite country with the largest population. You try to see India and travel to China.
❤
Nonsense. Democracy is about social inclusiveness. Not about election once every 5 years then let them run the country. China has good system to connect with commoners. They can meet their representatives at village, city levels.
🔥
Problem with mainland China becoming a democracy is it being a geographically huge nation with the world's longest land frontiers and territorial disputes with many of its neighbors, Taiwan was able to transition to democracy due to it being an island with the tacit support of the USA thus greatly simplifying it security dilemmas.
I think the old ROC constitution of the late 1946 where the President and Vice President are chosen by the National Assembly is as far as mainland China can go towards democracy.
台湾不是国家，不要讲梦话，😈😈😈😈
Each country in the world has its own style of democracy of its own country's culture and tradition. I see when the style of western democracy applied to other countries esp most of them in the Asia's, the democracy becomes Demo + Crazy.
The most trigger happy nation for the last 50 was also the most democratic one, at least that's what they claim. I'm not sure a democratic china is what we want,
But the way Xi Jin Ping Was chosen by national assembly
InDONESIA KOK HANCUR KETIKA CHINA DTG?😂😂😢😢😢
23:12 Chinese war with Vietnam in1979??? What??? Do historians write their own history??? And you're telling me he's a prof from Harvard🤣
China's state-dominated governance is too strong for US to compete against, therefore making China a Western liberal 'democracy' is the only way to break up or paralyze China. Taiwan cannot be made as an example for China to become a western 'democracy', because China is way too big and complicated to govern in that way. If you saw what happened in Taiwan's parliament, multiple it a few hundred times, if China becomes Taiwan-exemplified 'democracy'.
true, the bigger the country, the better/easier/more effective to be governed by more authoritarian ruler (as long as they are benevolent). just look at the mess of US or india. most effective democracies are those in small countries like scandinavian countries. but the problem is, once you get rich, the people want democracy because people no longer see material wealth/progress as more important than liberal values.
China itu sabar, hit and run dalam politik luar negerinya. Tidak seperti arab (palestina) dalam konfliknya dengan israel. Bahkan bapak2 bangsa kita lebih pintar daripada arab ini, founding father menerima lebih dahulu RIS (Republik indonesi serikat) bahkan membayar sejumlah uang untuk belanda. Yang penting merdeka lebih dahulu.
Tentu saja tidak bisa membandingkan Palestina dengan Indonesia jelas berbeda kondisinya.
Kamu salah 😂😂😂 kita membayar bukan berarti membayar kemerdekaan , kita membayar karna aset" kami bekukan dan infrastruktur belanda itu pun yang di suruh bayar indonesia serikat juga kita tolak, kita merdeka lewat perang beda sama china di jajah dan merdeka di kasih 😂😂 baca sejarah yang benar , aku tau kamu akun bot .......
Lihat china saja di jajah jepang dan inggris merdeka juga di kasih 😂😂😂
@@user-ob7hn3ue2rgak salah nih komen ? china merdeka dikasih ente lagi mabok apa ngimpi, china itu lebih jauh ber darah2 kalo soal melawan penjajah jepang sejak 1937 yg diawali penyerbuan ke manchuria dan selesai 1945, makanya jepang melihat perlawanan gigih china sd terjadi peristiwa Nanking agar shock terapi tapi tetap dihadapi dengan gigih. Kita dijajah 1942 - 1945 oleh jepang coba ente tanya ke ortu yg mengalami spt apa, banyak belajarlah
@@user-ob7hn3ue2r tentang china di kasih merdeka? Ada sala gk tigapulu juta nyawa melayang melawan jpng maka dapat veto di pbb bkn di kasi .otak lu perlu di cuci
I wont subscribe because the guest is not a luminary. The guest is regurgitating western talking points: silicon shield, hong kong security law, i.e. information manipulated for political purpose. There is no independent analysts.
I think the host, given his age, education, background, is so ingrained in western pov, that he can not think outside of the western paradigm.
another proxy
Yap channel ini sudah menjadi propaganda china 😂