Personally, I haven't seen anything more than vague speculation that prediction markets COULD influence elections but without solid data to suggest that it does. I haven't even seen any speculation as to the mechanisms by which it could exercise that influence. Voters may feel less urgency to vote if their own team is significantly "winning" in the markets; or perhaps they feel more inclined to get out there and vote in lockstep with their tribe. Voters may feel more urgency to vote if they see their team is "losing" in the markets; or perhaps they become apathetic if they think it will be such a landslide against that their vote won't even matter. As yet we don't have enough information to say which way it is more likely to influence people, in aggregate, if it even effects them at all. I think the average person either won't hear about the betting markets or won't care about it. I think it's unlikely to influence someone to change their vote, given that they would have voted anyway. My gut says that closer elections are more likely to mobilise people to turn out and vote. IMO The most likely motives/reason for why the prediction markets are so favoured towards Trump: 1. Crypto/investment bros tend towards higher risk tolerance and hyper masculinity which skews Republican. Even if investors want to invest without bias, they themselves are not biased. Mostly we seek out media that supports our existing beliefs rather than challenges it. Thus, with overwhelming "reasons" telling us that our candidate is the best, how could they not win? And so even unbiased money, being wielded by biased minds, will probably tend to vote more in alignment with their ballot than against. 2. Creating false confidence in the crypto market because the crypto market is more likely to react favourably to a win by Trump 3. Creating a false narrative that Trump is winning so that in the event Trump loses, when he declares the election to have been fraudulently stolen from him - which he will 100% claim - it will add more evidence to the claim. Normally, Conservatives don't seem to care about evidence to back up their conspiracies so this is the least likely motive and reason, in my books.
Personally, I haven't seen anything more than vague speculation that prediction markets COULD influence elections but without solid data to suggest that it does. I haven't even seen any speculation as to the mechanisms by which it could exercise that influence.
Voters may feel less urgency to vote if their own team is significantly "winning" in the markets;
or perhaps they feel more inclined to get out there and vote in lockstep with their tribe.
Voters may feel more urgency to vote if they see their team is "losing" in the markets;
or perhaps they become apathetic if they think it will be such a landslide against that their vote won't even matter.
As yet we don't have enough information to say which way it is more likely to influence people, in aggregate, if it even effects them at all.
I think the average person either won't hear about the betting markets or won't care about it.
I think it's unlikely to influence someone to change their vote, given that they would have voted anyway.
My gut says that closer elections are more likely to mobilise people to turn out and vote.
IMO The most likely motives/reason for why the prediction markets are so favoured towards Trump:
1. Crypto/investment bros tend towards higher risk tolerance and hyper masculinity which skews Republican. Even if investors want to invest without bias, they themselves are not biased. Mostly we seek out media that supports our existing beliefs rather than challenges it. Thus, with overwhelming "reasons" telling us that our candidate is the best, how could they not win? And so even unbiased money, being wielded by biased minds, will probably tend to vote more in alignment with their ballot than against.
2. Creating false confidence in the crypto market because the crypto market is more likely to react favourably to a win by Trump
3. Creating a false narrative that Trump is winning so that in the event Trump loses, when he declares the election to have been fraudulently stolen from him - which he will 100% claim - it will add more evidence to the claim. Normally, Conservatives don't seem to care about evidence to back up their conspiracies so this is the least likely motive and reason, in my books.