You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
@@TheWorldTeacher I thought that existential crisis is accumulating mutational load that with combination with gene-environment mismatch is causing surge of evolutionary maladaptive behaviours and bizarre ideologies. You just presented a symptom of the problem that I point out.
Well, Imagine someone 200 years ago, 1823, declaring something about how expansive a particular computation is going to be to perform in 2023. That's still not as dumb as her prediction about AGI being unrealistic for the next 200 years because the pace of technological improvement has actually increased since the 1800's. Her claim that AGI is unlikely in the next 200 years COULD be true, but there is no good reason to ASSUME so.
@@mootytootyfrooty Yes, I think the big hurdle left is on the software side. Then again, GPT-3 might be 1/300th the computing power of a human brain so whose to say what properties the current systems would have if simply scaled up. Interesting time to be alive, for sure!!!
Sabine at 19:25 "In summary, the biggest existencial risk is our own stupidity" Thank you, Sabine. We have already guessed that conclusion but at least now we can say it is been endorsed by a prestigious German theoretical physicist.
@@LeanAndMean44 I assume those of us who view human psychology, history and anthropology empirically as opposed to relying on self-aggrandizing claims such as divinity, moral relativity or other gobbledygook.
Impermanent and suffering are all conditioned things and all formations have the characteristic of impersonality (egolessness). When one perceives this with insight one ends suffering
Human extinction might be a bad thing for nature; consider atomic power plants, chemical factories and bioweapon / chemical weapon labs without maintenance.
Thats impossible to determine objectively. As there is no objective meaning for life. Its just the outcome of accidental chemical reactions. Anything that doesn't directly effect humans, essentially, does not matter. Since we're the ones making up the rules for what "matters" to begin with. Space rocks don't care. The only reason we even care about climate change is because it might make earth harder to live on for humans via its effects on the ecosystem
I can’t say I’m as optimistic as you regarding COVID being Pirates 3. No one learned their lessons, they still went to see the fourth movie and judging by how humanity reacted with a mild virus I am confident we’ll totally balls up the response to a future super plague
I think Covid hit a sweet spot. If there were hundreds dropped to the ground in the street, with cars driving into poles and the drivers collapsing on the ground, like in plague movies, people would be scared shtless and take it seriously. It’s the being spread without symptoms and only killing 3-5% slowly that allowed it to infect everyone and really bring out the stupid. I’m sure the next response will be stupid, it’s just going to be hard to top the last stupid.
Gotta hand it to Sabine, she's reassured us and warned us in ways that are very useful, well-put and simplified but not dumbed down. Happy new year Sabine and thank you again!
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
Sabine, I don't usually comment but just wanted to say I appreciate your channel/commentary and it is indeed "without the gobblygook" and yet it is rigorous and disciplined and this has great appeal to the educated and curious. Another aspect I also like is your dry humor. Look forward to seeing more of your content !!
For me, this was the Midsummer Night’s Dream of Sabine vids. A masterpiece! But perhaps her informed cynicism and dry humor has slowly damaged me in some way.🤔
Another excellent presentation from one of the best science presenters on the internet. I always look forward to your videos, Sabina, so keep them coming.
@@segfault- Actually since I own Alphabet, I have a responsibility to monitor my company for excellence, which you appear unable to provide on any topic. However as long as your comedy routine gathers enough views and advertising dollars for my bottom line you will be allowed to continue. PS. Did your crypto go to zero yet?
I really like the dry humor mixed with valuable information. absolut "edutainment" (which is the best form to learn) Also the firm way of talking sabine really envokes attention.
Never before has such a serious topic been discussed so lightheartedly. Wonderful, as always. Should the world end, I wish Sabine would comment on it all for us. Black holes and LHC? Good to see, that the universe is not so badly designed.
“So today I want to talk about something light hearted - human extinction.” Hahahaha!!! I love this channel and I love gallows humor. Happy New Year to you and your family Sabine!! Wish you all a happy, healthy, peaceful, prosperous and Nuclear Armageddon free 2023 from Canada!! ☮️❤️🙏🇨🇦😂🍻
👍🏼 this was her best one yet, looking forward to more in the new year and as an added treat I’m going to apply to 2023 a new way of thinking about the end of the world with something Sabine talked about in one of her previous videos concerning “ does the past still exist” and take 1 second off the doomsday clock right so each time I go to move it forward to boom time it’s already too late and walk back and forward and back and forward . 🤣 happy New Years .🎉🎊🍾🥳🍻
I am a math student who relies on physics videos to complete some gaps resulting from our not-so-great educational system. After watching all the big videos out there, you're the only one I keep follow and I constantly learn new things with every video you post. Although there are some things I don't 100% agree with you on, you always educate me and present subjects very simply, no matter how complicated they are. Love you jokes, which is a whole other thing I enjoy. Thank you!
Sabine, I have enjoyed learning so much this year from your channel/channels (including how to pronounce your name). You make me think very deeply about what I think I know, what I learn from others and most importantly, how to help educate the willing and enquiring minds of my grandchildren. Just like to say there is something about your dead-pan humour that endears you to us Yorkshire folk. Happy new year to you and yours. 🍾🥂
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
Habe den Kanal erst vor ein paar Tagen entdeckt und bin total begeistert. Jetzt weiß ich genau, wie ich die nächsten Tage und Wochen abends verbringe - alle alten Folgen ansehen. Sabine, Sie sind eine Wucht.
I like how you save a place for a light-hearted comment even around a grim topic such as extinction. Other than that, excellent demonstration as always.
Love this subject. I thought about this for some time. This concluded with a couple statements about survival. Survival comes down to 2 items. 1) Recognizing threats before too much damage is done. 2) Taking appropriate mitigating actions in time before too much damage is done. I agree with the categories of threats(natural caused & man-made). I estimate that most threats are man-made and mostly due to not being able to recognize the threats.
You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
Thanks for keeping it lighthearted this time around 😂 a lot of people can explain this but doing it and making you laugh at the same time is truly a gift thanks
@@djelalhassan7631 I just love the laser-sharp precision, with which Sabine is able to put facts into words. Leaves no space to misinterpret them, even if one wanted to.
Hi Sabine, thank you for all the videos. Can you please consider doing a video on ergodicity and why it is so important for decision-making? Apparently the foundational paper is "Evaluating Gambles Using Dynamics"
Hmmm, interesting. Do these scammers actually sift through comments with "Hi Sabine" or "@Sabine" manually to post their message? Or is it automated by scraping site data, flagging comments and inserting the scammy message? Hmmm... :P *Oh and I meant the "Text me via..." comment using Sabine's YT avatar - I suppose it will be purged eventually.
7:07 This shows a completely wrong understanding of the problem. Just assuming that greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced or even reduced to zero, the climate will not return to pre-industrial levels. Rather, we are on the way to a new normal. One that is much more dangerous to the human species than before. Because we will lose our habitat in large parts of the world. Sir David Anthony King a British chemist, academic, and head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group said: "If (and that is a big IF) we should reduce the emissions to zero tomorrow [...] The loss of ice from Greenland will continue irreversibly and the loss of methane from the permafrost regions in the landmasses around the arctic circle will also be lost. The first giving rise to a sea level rise of maybe seven meters. And the second giving rise quite possibly to temperature rise of 5 to 8° C."
I thought the most convincing argument against the black hole at the LHC was that the lifetime of a black hole depends on its size, and since it would be extremely small, its lifetime would be negligible and it would practically instantly turn into hawking radiation.
Yup. Even if there were a major malfunction that somehow both let let a hole form, and also let the beam pile several entire kilograms of protons into it... you'd still have a monumentally tiny black hole that would violently shine itself apart, dumping the mass-energy of several kilograms not far from its point of formation. It would, at worst, completely wreck the collider facility in a way distressingly similar to a low-yield nuke, but it'd pose no threat to the world at large, unless a powerful militarist organization mistook the event for a hostile nuclear strike and started an exchange about it. That's of course at the absurd end of the severity spectrum, because if something did really somehow let a hole form, its mass would much more likely be scarcely in tens of grams range or less, so it'd violently shine itself apart much faster, but with only enough yield to wreck the detector and irradiate its surroundings.
I didn't care about it not because it was unlikely, but more because a black hole devouring the planet is nothing that would affect humanity. It would just wipe us out, without a lot of time for feeling sorry for ourselves. If we ever manage to end the species, something like that would be a good way to do it.
Phrases like: "Hold my beer", "What could go wrong", "Hey, watch this" and "Wow I didn't think that would happen" lead me to believe that human extinction is a real possibility.
not to ruin your ideas about the human race, but sentences like the ones you provided are considered fun which is typically the start to what eventually leads to more humans, ya know. (now hold my beer and watch me how I do this gurl because what could possibly go wrong, right?)
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
@@ififif31 I'm pretty sure she kinda heard of everything you also heard of and a bunch beyond that. for starters, this is an urban legend and doesn't hold true under most circumstances. you only believe that because it kinda sounds funny and you simply wanna believe in it. but that's the actual dangerous behavior to only follow what looks like the correct path. instead of objectively assessing it.
@@HxTurtle It's definitely not an urban legend and it applies in vastly different areas (eg even marbles in a jar). You're just a POS troll disseminating dangerous information and literally worse than a child molesting serial killer ;) ;) ;) Care to explain why it would've apply here? Note that the 16.4% average probability here was derived by EXPERT analysis so it has even greater validity than just guesses.
@@ififif31 when you grow up, one day you'll look back and be ashamed of how insanely tight-minded you once were. marbles in a jar isn't any different an example. size of an atom or stars in the universe would be at least a different category. it's not how you thinking it that wrong guesses always cancel out. more often than not, most guesses are just too far off that a few could counter that general misconception. so, to think that the general mass will get it right on average is it course the most dangerous thing that I ever heard of. (in politics, I happily let the masses decide what they want just in order to satisfy the most amount of people. but that's still absurd to think, they'd know it all and everytime without long and difficult expert guidance.) and also, once you grow older, you'll realize that those that think they know it all like yourself are the only real danger or threat we could possibly come across. more you know. so you can stop molesting the Internet with your childish comments. ;)
I love listening to Sabine’s videos. I learned enough to battle people! The funniest part with her sarcasm people think I actually know what I’m talking about! However I seriously don’t know what I’m talking about!
Totally agree about the pandemic being a blessing in disguise. It was a mild disaster that gave us a preview of the challenges we might face. Can't say I'm super optimistic about our ability to handle disaster well, but it is what it is!
I'm afraid we didn't learn much. Mankind is good at learning in the field of science but not in the field of sociology or politics. That's not how we roll.
Well, it is very apparent if something like super contagious Ebola did make an appearance, we would all be fucked. The authorities seem to take action AFTER the infection has settled in. That is way, way too late. Restrictions and quarantines need to be enforced immediately, not wait until several hundred of infected people are allowed across borders....
@@TheHesseJames My initial impulse is to agree fully with you. Yet if we observe the bigger picture, despite all that is still terible in human society and politics, we have, overall, come a far way from the days of cannabilism, savage tribal raids, mass open slavery, serfdom and feudalism, widespread tyranny, and so on. That said, your point is well taken. We humans are nowhere near as advanced and secure in ecologic, economic, social, and political development as we are in technology and science. Changing this stark reality is actually a central focus of my current work. Regards from Bolivia.
The man made bioweapon you mean. Oh and now the usa are experimenting with them. Much like China have been. Since 2002 China have been researching rcial bi0weapns. Not a good time for humanity. Especially experimenting with such deadly weapons.
Thank you, Sabine, I'm curious about that other kind of extinction you refer to at 1:41. Has this possibility of human extinction been researched? I can fairly well imagine the possibility of doctors fundamentally altering human genetic material to the point where the most successful/favored individuals are no longer closely related to us "organic" humans. I guess this would be a kind of extinction via eugenics. What do you think? Have you come across any research into this?
Not research, but this is basically what Elon Musk and others spekulate to achieve when they think about starting out towards space. Since Transportation would be scarce, that'd basically mean restarting the species from a small, select sample of highly intelligent individuals, in an environment where genetical engineering may become a necessity.
Very interesting and as always entertaining! I'd absolutely love for the audiotracks of your videos to be available as podcasts so you could listen to them on the train or in the car.
Yo Sabine, thanks again for your time and effort!! Gotta mention its unlike you the way you brushed through global warming without even taking into consideration tipping points!! We're about to surpass our first major tipping point before the end and the decade!! Which projects a 2c temperature raise before 2030,you dont need me to point out how unforgiven tipping points are!! Thanks again, happy holidays!! 🖤🖤🖤
While not debating that human activity is causing global warming, it’s irrelevant to human extinction. Greenland used to be Green and lush. There will always be plenty of land for humans to thrive. Miami Venice can disappear but new lands will become the next frontiers. Global warming is irrelevant to the survival of human species.
Sabine's extrapolation about supercomputers reminds me of predictions made about computers in the 1950s: that there would never be more than a small number of really huge machines under the control of major corporations and the government and no need for anything more. Who knows _what_ will _really_ be available 200 years from now?
I recall that before they set off the first atomic bomb in 1945 that someone asked what the probability was that it would set fire to the atmosphere and destroy all life. The flippant answer; 50-50.
Well, the nuclear winter theory has been heavily challenged as of late, especially since the actual amount of material being blasted up into the atmosphere is dwarfed by volcanism. A full scale nuclear war would likely end most modern civilisations, but an extinction should be considered highly unlikely, especially since modern weapons produce very little nuclear fallout in comparison to past weapons.
Well... That's the biggest issue, Sabine. We have more than enough stupidity among humans. 😬 Anyway, stay safe there with your family! 🖖😊 And happy new year!
You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
My Godson and nephew is studying physics and math and engineering. He is not an over achiever, he is just intellectually curious and seeking to be challenged. Your videos have been a godsend to my brother. It isn't just that you discuss a broad range of cutting edge science that doesn't require high level fluency in mathematics, it is also that you model a way we can interact with my brother's son on the topics with which he is engaged. Thank you.
Yes, Supervolcano: strange visitor from another world who, in the guise of Clarke Caldera, fights a never-ending battle for truth, justice and the upwelling of magma.
One proximate cause of possible extinction you didn't mention is trophic cascades. If we kill off all the insects-which we're on a path towards doing, at least to a significant degree-then we set up a scenario where the intricate food webs that sustain our ecology disintegrate.
You're one of my favourite youtubers, Sabine. I had to get a VPN for work purposes so I actively decided to use your link. I hope you get some royalties or something. Thanks for the fascinating, well researched, and subjective videos!
@coachgreg Great piece in this video about available calorie reduction for different nuclear war scenarios. Sabine is very funny. Might be an idea for a video !
Sabine, thank you for all content for our edification & enjoyment. You have a brilliant sense of humor and perspective, and I thank you again for sharing it. I wish you and yours a wonderfully Happy New Year. . . .always looking forward to your next lessons. 🖖
Great video! There was a time when I was staunchly in the "human extinction would be good for the planet" camp, but I'm not quite as much of a misanthrope as I used to be. But I also now realize that if we go down, we're taking a lot of other species down with us. They don't deserve that, and we don't have the right to do that to them.
I like how the people who answered "Duh!" to the question of why they believed human extinction to be a bad thing clearly did not think about the question they were asked. This ties into the hypothesis that our stupidity will be our downfall.
I think, as presented here, the argument for human extinction is rather weak. "Humans are bad for the planet" - let's accept that. Okay, so what? Will we hurt the planet's feelings? It's a ball of rock in an envelope of gas. Alright, so maybe we mean the animals. Given species rise and fall constantly in the natural course of events without humans, is our existence negatively impacting the overall number of living beings? Even if we exclude plants, fungi, and bacteria, are ants troubled by our rise? Sure, it hasn't been great for the dodo or the passenger pigeon, but life as a whole is doing just fine. Peregrine falcons love skyscrapers, pigeons have gone universal (not sure why I'm making this so bird focused...). As a utilitarian, I find the anti-human ethical argument rather weak, without even needing to distinguish the ethical status of a human and other lifeforms.
I don't think the "duh" answer has anything to do with stupidity, it's a natural answer, we're biologically wired to seek continued survival, for millions of years us and our children living another day is all that mattered. I wouldn't expect most humans to escape this hard wiring or think outside of it or even question it.
Of all known entities, humans have by far the most advancec subjective experience, which, if we reach technological and societal maturity, might manifest in a richness of life far beyond what we can envision today. I would even argue that most lives, except those of the most miserable, are already so much richer than those of even the next most advanced animals, that a human life is inherently and by many orders of magnitude worth more than that of animals. Therefore, human extinction would be unfortunate, as it is unlikely that another species would evolve to realize a similar potential (and if it would, it would likely repeat the same mistakes as us, without the opportunity to learn from mankind's failures). 'Duh'
Ah Ha! Sabine. I love your presentations. I Always love to hear your thinking. With a bit of dry fun included. You make me laugh with some of your insights. Keep going, Professor. Thank you for your Wisdom.
Gotta pay those bills somehow. It reminds me of the 1940-50 radio shows where the narrator would spin off into a spot for some product or other - and then back to our show! :D
Very amusing, Sabine. Happy New Year from the island in Scotland. If you want to canoe up to my survivalist cave (80 pints of homebrew IPA stashed) let me know.
12:30 I don't consider a supervolcano eruption an ELE event. yes, massive damage and such, but not an ELE. Ash is easier cleaned up than radioactive material.
Very interesting. I am currently reading a book called "scary smart" about AI. It's interesting that the author of this book has wildly different expectations of tha pace of AI development in the coming decades. I do hope Sabines prediction is the more accurate!
you might like Robert Miles' channel, in case you haven't checked it out already. He has nice discussions on the topic. He is mostly in the camp of "we should take this seriously", but seems fairly balanced in his discussion.
As usual, Sabine gets to the central issue. Until AI learns to physically maintain itself, including a never-ending supply of electricity, and reproduce , I don't see it taking over the world. The real issue is that some AI system could intentionally cause us problems;. However, we can always unplug it but then we are left to clean up the mess and redesign that AI system. Assuming that it is critical in our hyper-connected world of systems means that it could be very disruptive. But not the end of a human domination.
@@kcgilford518 I don't know, i feel like that heavily depends on what you mean by "taking over the world". Sure, physically subjugating humans may need physical independence, but there are more subtle ways of progressively gaining control
Woow, I'm speechless, I've been watching some of your videos for a couple of weeks and I've never seen a youtube channel as awesome and fun to watch as yours. I'm kind of new in the world of tech, I started as a 19 years old girl, and now, after after some years, I can't believe how similar 'tech researchers' are to the ones you mention, like, it makes sense, but I was so innocent. Amazing channel Sabine.
@@douglasharley2440 And for people with deuteroanomaly ("color blindness"). What I meant and hoped would be clear (silly me): What you write is true but super trivial. Everyone knows that. And that's the interesting thing: How do people do things they absolutely know they're wrong?
@@aljoschalong625 lol, i have surmounted many difficult problems in my life, and i hate bellyachers. people are soft because they are not forced to become hard. 🤣
I don't understand how anyone can believe that autogenocide of some kind is anything but inevitable given the variety and multitude of possible ways we have set in motion. Thanks for addressing the issue.
We like to know we can control what we do, just as we mostly don't get injured when using knives, saws and sledge hammers, or even when driving one of those deadly coffins on wheels we call "cars". Same with nukes, right? 😅
Just because there are many ways something could happen, doesn't mean that it will happen. For example, there are many ways I could forget to make dinner on any one day, but I often still eat dinner.
Great video, although I think it's underestimating the existential risk from AGI a fair bit, especially the "let's just extrapolate this" part. There's a lot of interesting research on AI safety out there :)
Her claim is that we won't be able to run AGI at consumer hardware for a few hundred years. a) that seem extremely unlikely to me. b) even if it were true, it doesn't solve alignment in any way.
The thing that "worries" me about AI is the possibility that it will become intelligent enough to learn enough about programming that it can create its own AI that is better than any human made AI. At that point we are looking at a snowball effect of more and more intelligent AIs until we end up with something like Derek in The Good Place.
@@BlaBla-lz4pv It's easy enough to imagine an AI that is capable of writing a more intelligent AI also being capable of replacing itself on its own hardware, hacking into a supercomputer and putting its new AI there, or writing a distributed computing application that it either distributes as a virus across the internet, or as a SETI like program. But, remember that I said I'm worried about the possibility of it happening, not that it is a sure thing. I don't know if it is or isn't possible.
Today, I asked chatGPT to program a Sudoku solver in rust and it came up with a working version. But when I ask chatGPT for an artificial intelligence, it gives me some text with an descriptions of the general steps to take. So: Not yet.
@@rickseiden1 Yes, but then the hardware is a limiting factor. One could disconnect their computers from the internet. You need to give them reproductive parts that are capable of making more hardware for it to spread at any decent speed And no, AI's taking over the factories to produce them will only result in linear growth (proportional to the number of factories) rather than exponential growth (proportional to the number of AIs)
Thanks for another great video. I have enjoyed all of your content this year and I look forward to much more next year! Happy New Year to you and yours!
@@michaelwinter742 would a handful of us be enough to carry us forward? Space expansion is being restricted by governments and billionaires. Exploration by foundations/organizations is restricted unless backed by the overlords and not actual worker ants
@@IronKore Probably not. A spaceship would need to be extremely large to allow for enough individuals to provide adequate genetic diversity to keep a species alive. However, we can store frozen sperm, eggs, and embryos - which could be made into people when we got to a place suitable for colonization.
Michael, agreed! Though I’m a botanist and soils guy. Take a look at the Biosphere experiments from the 1990s. We have a hard time understanding why it is hard to restore Earth habitats we’ve degraded, much less creating a habitat ourselves that we can survive in to travel to and terraform other worlds
@@IronKore Space travel is an extremely difficult task that requires vast resources to accomplish. It’s not something available by default that is being taken away from you by elites. Those governments and billionaires are actually the ones pushing forward space travel so that it might one day be accessible to more and more people. If those resources were equally distributed, no one would be going to space.
apparently sabine hasn't read about the stanford alpaca AI model. Trained a model that was within 90% of GPT3.5 given a single GPU. There is a LOT of room to make these things a lot better with a lot less hardware.
Stanford Alpaca is a training data set, not a model. The stanford model, trained on the alpaca dataset is available on huggingface (along with others trained on the same data set). If you try some of the models trained on this dataset, and run on a single GPU (like a A10g) on places like huggingface- you'll quickly discover that the 90% performance is on very unrealistic benchmarks of performance that don't compare meaningful to GPT-3.5 (or even 3 or 2)
@@sophiophile ok sure.. maybe so. but I still maintain that Sabine is off here. NVIDIA just announced their H100 GPU/TPU, which is estimated to increase the rate of inference here by around 30 times - and it scales linearly with the number of chips that you throw at it. With this chipset, a GPT-4 equivalent can run with 2 H100s at around 1400 watts. And that is one announcement (albeit a big one). They also so happen to have revolutionized the production of these chips by a breakthrough which allows wafers to be etched by light patterns computed by GPUs rather than CPUs, so the chance that this will stay state of the art is slim. Combine that with the alpaca sized datasets and we are likely to see lots of these smaller bots work their way into everything.
@@gregmattson2238 100%. If you want to learn more about all the crazy stuff Nvidia is doing+powering, register and watch some of the videos from Nvidia's GTC conference that just happened. They mention a bunch of what you said (and more) in the keynote, and there are probably 100+ in depth talks on different topics. I recently switched from time series forecasting with ML to customized LLMs (including fine-tuned GPT-3 models, you can't fine tune 3.5 or 4 yet unless you get granted early access), it's a really interesting field.
A nice break from the heavy topics, like black holes and neutron stars.
You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
@@TheWorldTeacher I thought that existential crisis is accumulating mutational load that with combination with gene-environment mismatch is causing surge of evolutionary maladaptive behaviours and bizarre ideologies. You just presented a symptom of the problem that I point out.
Funny
hehe
Unless you consider extinction the ultimate, i.e., heaviest, topic. I do. But it's not science, it's philosophy, specifically, psycho-epistemology.
I am scientifically almost illiterate and yet I almost never miss watching Sabine's videos. You are gift for people like me. Thank you.
Well, Imagine someone 200 years ago, 1823, declaring something about how expansive a particular computation is going to be to perform in 2023. That's still not as dumb as her prediction about AGI being unrealistic for the next 200 years because the pace of technological improvement has actually increased since the 1800's.
Her claim that AGI is unlikely in the next 200 years COULD be true, but there is no good reason to ASSUME so.
Samajh bhi aata hai bhai? Kuch chize bouncer jaati.
@@mootytootyfrooty Yes, I think the big hurdle left is on the software side. Then again, GPT-3 might be 1/300th the computing power of a human brain so whose to say what properties the current systems would have if simply scaled up. Interesting time to be alive, for sure!!!
@@sheilakijawani2526 Something bounced? This is not clear when translated into English directly.
Well imagine what would happen to you if you listen to a Tom cambell video
Sabine at 19:25 "In summary, the biggest existencial risk is our own stupidity"
Thank you, Sabine. We have already guessed that conclusion but at least now we can say it is been endorsed by a prestigious German theoretical physicist.
Haha
Who is we?
@@LeanAndMean44 I assume those of us who view human psychology, history and anthropology empirically as opposed to relying on self-aggrandizing claims such as divinity, moral relativity or other gobbledygook.
Unfortunately the stupidest ones are the loudest and so they are listened to more. That makes them more powerful than the rest of us.
You are the stupid here, Mr P
You and your hate speech toward mankind
I can always count on Sabine’s videos to amplify any existential crisis I happen to be entertaining.
Impermanent and suffering are all conditioned things
and all formations have the characteristic of impersonality (egolessness).
When one perceives this with insight one ends suffering
A lot of 'gain' in the amplification...
@@philipm3173 it's true only if it's true for you.
....OH! .. INDUBITABLY OLD FRUIT!. .... 🏴🙏🖖😆😆
Same here. The worst thing about human extinction would be that all chihuahuas would die.
A talk about human extinction is not complete without a detailed consideration of the benefits.
Thank you for this.
Whole other segment on machine cannibalism and the ethics of recycling ones own.
Human extinction might be a bad thing for nature; consider atomic power plants, chemical factories and bioweapon / chemical weapon labs without maintenance.
@@flirtwithdanger_les
Nah, nature has survived much more dangerous things than humanity.
It just won't be the nature we live in.
@@flirtwithdanger_les Maybe the last few people left could turn the lights off.
Thats impossible to determine objectively. As there is no objective meaning for life. Its just the outcome of accidental chemical reactions.
Anything that doesn't directly effect humans, essentially, does not matter. Since we're the ones making up the rules for what "matters" to begin with. Space rocks don't care.
The only reason we even care about climate change is because it might make earth harder to live on for humans via its effects on the ecosystem
I can’t say I’m as optimistic as you regarding COVID being Pirates 3. No one learned their lessons, they still went to see the fourth movie and judging by how humanity reacted with a mild virus I am confident we’ll totally balls up the response to a future super plague
I have seen enough zombie movies to know that we are doomed
Happy New year
@@theblinkingbrownie4654 Absolutely! No species that was _not_ doomed would make zombie movies. That would be ridiculous.
I think Covid hit a sweet spot. If there were hundreds dropped to the ground in the street, with cars driving into poles and the drivers collapsing on the ground, like in plague movies, people would be scared shtless and take it seriously. It’s the being spread without symptoms and only killing 3-5% slowly that allowed it to infect everyone and really bring out the stupid. I’m sure the next response will be stupid, it’s just going to be hard to top the last stupid.
@@jamielondon6436 - The word 'hubris' comes to mind.
Gotta hand it to Sabine, she's reassured us and warned us in ways that are very useful, well-put and simplified but not dumbed down. Happy new year Sabine and thank you again!
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading.
Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight.
(BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
Watching average one of your videos per day. Really easy to follow along, without being condescending. Thank you!
Sabine, I don't usually comment but just wanted to say I appreciate your channel/commentary and it is indeed "without the gobblygook" and yet it is rigorous and disciplined and this has great appeal to the educated and curious. Another aspect I also like is your dry humor. Look forward to seeing more of your content !!
I so appreciate someone with such a profound understanding of her subject she doesn't need jargon or a proprietary grip.
@@annarock8966 What ??
Everything she says is gobbledygook.
@@phaymphantom256Least upset flat earther.
Loved the intro, lighthearted talk about human extinction. Sabina humor fills me with joy.
For me, this was the Midsummer Night’s Dream of Sabine vids. A masterpiece! But perhaps her informed cynicism and dry humor has slowly damaged me in some way.🤔
The title with the :D face absolutely got me rolling on the floor xD
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
Great video Sabine, the voice of reason, very informative; and with some fab humour.
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
Another excellent presentation from one of the best science presenters on the internet. I always look forward to your videos, Sabina, so keep them coming.
LOL if you buy Alphabet she can work for you like she works for me.
Sabine
Sabine has decided to not deal with reality and instead pretend that the math works
@@area51z63 LOL right back at ya. Your comment about the big bang.. I can't... You've got to be trolling.
@@segfault- Actually since I own Alphabet, I have a responsibility to monitor my company for excellence, which you appear unable to provide on any topic. However as long as your comedy routine gathers enough views and advertising dollars for my bottom line you will be allowed to continue. PS. Did your crypto go to zero yet?
I really like the dry humor mixed with valuable information. absolut "edutainment" (which is the best form to learn)
Also the firm way of talking sabine really envokes attention.
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
Never before has such a serious topic been discussed so lightheartedly. Wonderful, as always. Should the world end, I wish Sabine would comment on it all for us. Black holes and LHC? Good to see, that the universe is not so badly designed.
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
“So today I want to talk about something light hearted - human extinction.”
Hahahaha!!! I love this channel and I love gallows humor. Happy New Year to you and your family Sabine!! Wish you all a happy, healthy, peaceful, prosperous and Nuclear Armageddon free 2023 from Canada!!
☮️❤️🙏🇨🇦😂🍻
I think we can all get behind an armageddon-free 2023.
Could you maybe chill?
👍🏼 this was her best one yet, looking forward to more in the new year and as an added treat I’m going to apply to 2023 a new way of thinking about the end of the world with something Sabine talked about in one of her previous videos concerning “ does the past still exist” and take 1 second off the doomsday clock right so each time I go to move it forward to boom time it’s already too late and walk back and forward and back and forward . 🤣 happy New Years .🎉🎊🍾🥳🍻
@@NyscanRohid Nyet 🇷🇺🙏🍻
she used to live in Canada (and so did I; not that this would matter any, lol)
I enjoy the high level concepts and the dry humor! Very entertaining AND informative. :)
Yes! Almost, dare I say? sarcastic
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
I am a math student who relies on physics videos to complete some gaps resulting from our not-so-great educational system. After watching all the big videos out there, you're the only one I keep follow and I constantly learn new things with every video you post. Although there are some things I don't 100% agree with you on, you always educate me and present subjects very simply, no matter how complicated they are. Love you jokes, which is a whole other thing I enjoy. Thank you!
Just started reading your book, "Existential Physics." (It was a Christmas gift.) Fascinating read, Sabine! Happy New Year!
It was very good... I scarfed it down in a day.
@@ProfessorBeautiful I am trying to "relish and savour" it!! Very enjoyable as well as entertaining. Happy New Year to you!
Sabine, I have enjoyed learning so much this year from your channel/channels (including how to pronounce your name). You make me think very deeply about what I think I know, what I learn from others and most importantly, how to help educate the willing and enquiring minds of my grandchildren. Just like to say there is something about your dead-pan humour that endears you to us Yorkshire folk. Happy new year to you and yours. 🍾🥂
She's nice looking too.
The recent prime minister we had from Yorkshire was quite deadpan…
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading.
Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight.
(BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
Habe den Kanal erst vor ein paar Tagen entdeckt und bin total begeistert. Jetzt weiß ich genau, wie ich die nächsten Tage und Wochen abends verbringe - alle alten Folgen ansehen. Sabine, Sie sind eine Wucht.
th-cam.com/video/zqIt93dDG1M/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk
I like how you save a place for a light-hearted comment even around a grim topic such as extinction. Other than that, excellent demonstration as always.
There are so many satellites in orbit now. What happens if one should fall to earth? LInk: th-cam.com/video/WD94mEYFaCw/w-d-xo.html
Useful information to consider whilst doing the planning for the next year. Thank you, I'll take it into account.
Love this subject. I thought about this for some time. This concluded with a couple statements about survival. Survival comes down to 2 items. 1) Recognizing threats before too much damage is done. 2) Taking appropriate mitigating actions in time before too much damage is done. I agree with the categories of threats(natural caused & man-made). I estimate that most threats are man-made and mostly due to not being able to recognize the threats.
The best New Year's day gift! (Video, not the extinction)
You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
Sabine always puts a smile on my face.
it was a really uplifting video this end-of-the-year.
i feel renewed!!
Thanks for keeping it lighthearted this time around 😂 a lot of people can explain this but doing it and making you laugh at the same time is truly a gift thanks
Sabine, I love your videos and how you approach these complex subjects. Keep up the fantastic work!
Because only Sabine could deadpan the sentence: I want to talk about something light hearted human extinction.
8:30 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 movie reference is HILARIOUS! I must say I wasn't prepared for that one. Thank you Sabine.
Interesting and amusing. The best combo :-) I think I did catch one error: Super volcanoes eject 1000 Km3, not 1000 m3 (11:50)
Good spotting !
Now this the kind of video that a a true physicist would do on the new year eve and I LOVE IT! ❤
Precisely formulated facts explained with a nerdy humour. Brilliant combination, as always. Thank you, Sabine, keep it up!
What precisely formulated facts?
@@djelalhassan7631 I just love the laser-sharp precision, with which Sabine is able to put facts into words. Leaves no space to misinterpret them, even if one wanted to.
Fab video, thanks 😊
A small correction, a super volcano emits >1 000km³ of material, not 1 000m³.
Happy new year!
Yes - this "small" error, is of 9 orders of magnitude, error.
But what's an '9 orders of magnitude' error, among friends!?!
@@verbumsat Or, or, consider: Maybe it was a typo and someone missed the “k”?
Oh Sabine, this was so relaxing, great stuff to enter the new year with 😂
Thank you for this video..... and for all your work, making thing understandable and with humour, priceless. Do keep doing what you do 😊
This video is very informative and the humor riddled throughout it is not lost on me :)
Hi Sabine, thank you for all the videos. Can you please consider doing a video on ergodicity and why it is so important for decision-making? Apparently the foundational paper is "Evaluating Gambles Using Dynamics"
Hmmm, interesting. Do these scammers actually sift through comments with "Hi Sabine" or "@Sabine" manually to post their message?
Or is it automated by scraping site data, flagging comments and inserting the scammy message? Hmmm... :P
*Oh and I meant the "Text me via..." comment using Sabine's YT avatar - I suppose it will be purged eventually.
@@albertobernal2537 pretty sure thats an AI bot trying to find someone to explain ergodicity to it.
7:07 This shows a completely wrong understanding of the problem. Just assuming that greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced or even reduced to zero, the climate will not return to pre-industrial levels. Rather, we are on the way to a new normal. One that is much more dangerous to the human species than before. Because we will lose our habitat in large parts of the world.
Sir David Anthony King a British chemist, academic, and head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group said:
"If (and that is a big IF) we should reduce the emissions to zero tomorrow [...] The loss of ice from Greenland will continue irreversibly and the loss of methane from the permafrost regions in the landmasses around the arctic circle will also be lost. The first giving rise to a sea level rise of maybe seven meters. And the second giving rise quite possibly to temperature rise of 5 to 8° C."
I thought the most convincing argument against the black hole at the LHC was that the lifetime of a black hole depends on its size, and since it would be extremely small, its lifetime would be negligible and it would practically instantly turn into hawking radiation.
Yup. Even if there were a major malfunction that somehow both let let a hole form, and also let the beam pile several entire kilograms of protons into it... you'd still have a monumentally tiny black hole that would violently shine itself apart, dumping the mass-energy of several kilograms not far from its point of formation. It would, at worst, completely wreck the collider facility in a way distressingly similar to a low-yield nuke, but it'd pose no threat to the world at large, unless a powerful militarist organization mistook the event for a hostile nuclear strike and started an exchange about it.
That's of course at the absurd end of the severity spectrum, because if something did really somehow let a hole form, its mass would much more likely be scarcely in tens of grams range or less, so it'd violently shine itself apart much faster, but with only enough yield to wreck the detector and irradiate its surroundings.
I didn't care about it not because it was unlikely, but more because a black hole devouring the planet is nothing that would affect humanity. It would just wipe us out, without a lot of time for feeling sorry for ourselves. If we ever manage to end the species, something like that would be a good way to do it.
A happy note to start the New Year. Seriously, Sabina, I love your sense of humor. Best wishes for the New Year.
At least get her name right...
The crucial phrase lies at 19.24. it really is so true. Making all this video to tell us that ? Well. it was worth it, You're great.
You are awesome, Sabine... thank you and Happy New Year!!
Phrases like: "Hold my beer", "What could go wrong", "Hey, watch this" and "Wow I didn't think that would happen" lead me to believe that human extinction is a real possibility.
not to ruin your ideas about the human race, but sentences like the ones you provided are considered fun which is typically the start to what eventually leads to more humans, ya know. (now hold my beer and watch me how I do this gurl because what could possibly go wrong, right?)
10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading.
Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight.
(BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)
@@ififif31 I'm pretty sure she kinda heard of everything you also heard of and a bunch beyond that. for starters, this is an urban legend and doesn't hold true under most circumstances. you only believe that because it kinda sounds funny and you simply wanna believe in it. but that's the actual dangerous behavior to only follow what looks like the correct path. instead of objectively assessing it.
@@HxTurtle It's definitely not an urban legend and it applies in vastly different areas (eg even marbles in a jar). You're just a POS troll disseminating dangerous information and literally worse than a child molesting serial killer ;) ;) ;)
Care to explain why it would've apply here? Note that the 16.4% average probability here was derived by EXPERT analysis so it has even greater validity than just guesses.
@@ififif31 when you grow up, one day you'll look back and be ashamed of how insanely tight-minded you once were. marbles in a jar isn't any different an example. size of an atom or stars in the universe would be at least a different category. it's not how you thinking it that wrong guesses always cancel out. more often than not, most guesses are just too far off that a few could counter that general misconception. so, to think that the general mass will get it right on average is it course the most dangerous thing that I ever heard of. (in politics, I happily let the masses decide what they want just in order to satisfy the most amount of people. but that's still absurd to think, they'd know it all and everytime without long and difficult expert guidance.)
and also, once you grow older, you'll realize that those that think they know it all like yourself are the only real danger or threat we could possibly come across. more you know. so you can stop molesting the Internet with your childish comments. ;)
I love listening to Sabine’s videos.
I learned enough to battle people! The funniest part with her sarcasm people think I actually know what I’m talking about! However I seriously don’t know what I’m talking about!
Totally agree about the pandemic being a blessing in disguise. It was a mild disaster that gave us a preview of the challenges we might face. Can't say I'm super optimistic about our ability to handle disaster well, but it is what it is!
I'm afraid we didn't learn much. Mankind is good at learning in the field of science but not in the field of sociology or politics. That's not how we roll.
Well, it is very apparent if something like super contagious Ebola did make an appearance, we would all be fucked. The authorities seem to take action AFTER the infection has settled in. That is way, way too late. Restrictions and quarantines need to be enforced immediately, not wait until several hundred of infected people are allowed across borders....
@@TheHesseJames My initial impulse is to agree fully with you.
Yet if we observe the bigger picture, despite all that is still terible in human society and politics, we have, overall, come a far way from the days of cannabilism, savage tribal raids, mass open slavery, serfdom and feudalism, widespread tyranny, and so on.
That said, your point is well taken. We humans are nowhere near as advanced and secure in ecologic, economic, social, and political development as we are in technology and science. Changing this stark reality is actually a central focus of my current work.
Regards from Bolivia.
@@leonstenutz6003 yeah technology advances faster than ethics
The man made bioweapon you mean.
Oh and now the usa are experimenting with them. Much like China have been.
Since 2002 China have been researching rcial bi0weapns. Not a good time for humanity. Especially experimenting with such deadly weapons.
Thank you, Sabine, I'm curious about that other kind of extinction you refer to at 1:41. Has this possibility of human extinction been researched? I can fairly well imagine the possibility of doctors fundamentally altering human genetic material to the point where the most successful/favored individuals are no longer closely related to us "organic" humans. I guess this would be a kind of extinction via eugenics. What do you think? Have you come across any research into this?
Enter Huxley Bros : " 100 + annos in the.... making "
Not research, but this is basically what Elon Musk and others spekulate to achieve when they think about starting out towards space. Since Transportation would be scarce, that'd basically mean restarting the species from a small, select sample of highly intelligent individuals, in an environment where genetical engineering may become a necessity.
I love the topics she covers and how she explains things. Also, her sense of humor is great. /Talk about a light hearted topic like human extinction.
😄 Sabine, you put me a smile on within the first ten minutes, once again! Thanks 👍 A happy new one to you, too!🍾🎇
Very interesting and as always entertaining!
I'd absolutely love for the audiotracks of your videos to be available as podcasts so you could listen to them on the train or in the car.
Enters Maseratti : " Moving Your freights along with Your rates..."
Sabine's sense of humour is 👌🏾😁 Especially the deadpan delivery of zingers. Can't get enough of it.
Excellent video. Very interesting, informative and worthwhile video.
Thanks Sabine, have a happy new year (if we survive that long).
The advantage of extinction is that we no longer have to fret about the possibility. It will give us total peace of mind.
Yo Sabine, thanks again for your time and effort!! Gotta mention its unlike you the way you brushed through global warming without even taking into consideration tipping points!! We're about to surpass our first major tipping point before the end and the decade!! Which projects a 2c temperature raise before 2030,you dont need me to point out how unforgiven tipping points are!! Thanks again, happy holidays!! 🖤🖤🖤
While not debating that human activity is causing global warming, it’s irrelevant to human extinction. Greenland used to be Green and lush. There will always be plenty of land for humans to thrive. Miami Venice can disappear but new lands will become the next frontiers. Global warming is irrelevant to the survival of human species.
Thank you for the video.
Sabine's extrapolation about supercomputers reminds me of predictions made about computers in the 1950s: that there would never be more than a small number of really huge machines under the control of major corporations and the government and no need for anything more. Who knows _what_ will _really_ be available 200 years from now?
I recall that before they set off the first atomic bomb in 1945 that someone asked what the probability was that it would set fire to the atmosphere and destroy all life. The flippant answer; 50-50.
Sadly we survived
Well, the nuclear winter theory has been heavily challenged as of late, especially since the actual amount of material being blasted up into the atmosphere is dwarfed by volcanism.
A full scale nuclear war would likely end most modern civilisations, but an extinction should be considered highly unlikely, especially since modern weapons produce very little nuclear fallout in comparison to past weapons.
Thanks from Australian Sabine, good luck up there, we’ll be thinking of you!
Well... That's the biggest issue, Sabine. We have more than enough stupidity among humans. 😬
Anyway, stay safe there with your family! 🖖😊
And happy new year!
That smile at the end of the intro
You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱
@@TheWorldTeacher
For some values of _arguably_
Love Sabine's sense of humor and puns.
“Better an end with Horror than a Horror without end.”
The extinction probability is likely greater than the estimates, due to possible causes of extinction that are being overlooked.
I don't think so. The different probabilities only concern the time frame. The probability for extinction is without doubt 100%
@@liquidKi You're right!
At 6:27 I think you have confused New Zealand (which is red) with Tasmania.
My Godson and nephew is studying physics and math and engineering. He is not an over achiever, he is just intellectually curious and seeking to be challenged.
Your videos have been a godsend to my brother. It isn't just that you discuss a broad range of cutting edge science that doesn't require high level fluency in mathematics, it is also that you model a way we can interact with my brother's son on the topics with which he is engaged.
Thank you.
Yes, Supervolcano: strange visitor from another world who, in the guise of Clarke Caldera, fights a never-ending battle for truth, justice and the upwelling of magma.
3:16 Technically the answer to the question "Would that be bad or not bad?" is always yes (as to any "Would that be x or not x?" question)
Exactly what I need to watch on NYE to prepare myself for the next year 😁
aah some good ol' German optimism on New years eve! 👍 (no sarcasm here, this video is really optimistic by German standards 🤷♂️)
I love your videos - and your dry sense of humor. Both are brilliant!
One proximate cause of possible extinction you didn't mention is trophic cascades. If we kill off all the insects-which we're on a path towards doing, at least to a significant degree-then we set up a scenario where the intricate food webs that sustain our ecology disintegrate.
she didn't say much about pandemics either
Thank you, Sabine, for all the info in the video. Very informative, as always!
Info and misinfo ( the climate change part)...
You're one of my favourite youtubers, Sabine. I had to get a VPN for work purposes so I actively decided to use your link. I hope you get some royalties or something. Thanks for the fascinating, well researched, and subjective videos!
@coachgreg Great piece in this video about available calorie reduction for different nuclear war scenarios. Sabine is very funny. Might be an idea for a video !
Sabine, thank you for all content for our edification & enjoyment. You have a brilliant sense of humor and perspective, and I thank you again for sharing it.
I wish you and yours a wonderfully Happy New Year. . . .always looking forward to your next lessons. 🖖
"Well not too seriously, I'm not good with that."
Words to live by.
Human Extinction: How Likely Is It? - 100%
I believe so.
“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
If we delete India, africa and Russia it would definitely extend our resources and reduce risks...
it is a light hearted topic 😂
After I'm dead, I don't care
Human extinction would be a disaster, because without humans there would be no gobbledygook.
Great video! There was a time when I was staunchly in the "human extinction would be good for the planet" camp, but I'm not quite as much of a misanthrope as I used to be. But I also now realize that if we go down, we're taking a lot of other species down with us. They don't deserve that, and we don't have the right to do that to them.
I like how the people who answered "Duh!" to the question of why they believed human extinction to be a bad thing clearly did not think about the question they were asked. This ties into the hypothesis that our stupidity will be our downfall.
Given a choice between malice and stupidity, stupidity will win out as the most probable.
I think, as presented here, the argument for human extinction is rather weak. "Humans are bad for the planet" - let's accept that. Okay, so what? Will we hurt the planet's feelings? It's a ball of rock in an envelope of gas. Alright, so maybe we mean the animals. Given species rise and fall constantly in the natural course of events without humans, is our existence negatively impacting the overall number of living beings? Even if we exclude plants, fungi, and bacteria, are ants troubled by our rise? Sure, it hasn't been great for the dodo or the passenger pigeon, but life as a whole is doing just fine. Peregrine falcons love skyscrapers, pigeons have gone universal (not sure why I'm making this so bird focused...). As a utilitarian, I find the anti-human ethical argument rather weak, without even needing to distinguish the ethical status of a human and other lifeforms.
I don't think the "duh" answer has anything to do with stupidity, it's a natural answer, we're biologically wired to seek continued survival, for millions of years us and our children living another day is all that mattered. I wouldn't expect most humans to escape this hard wiring or think outside of it or even question it.
Of all known entities, humans have by far the most advancec subjective experience, which, if we reach technological and societal maturity, might manifest in a richness of life far beyond what we can envision today. I would even argue that most lives, except those of the most miserable, are already so much richer than those of even the next most advanced animals, that a human life is inherently and by many orders of magnitude worth more than that of animals. Therefore, human extinction would be unfortunate, as it is unlikely that another species would evolve to realize a similar potential (and if it would, it would likely repeat the same mistakes as us, without the opportunity to learn from mankind's failures). 'Duh'
@@WemplesTemple This is precisely what I meant, only expressed more eloquently.
19:25 That summary, spot on 😂
Ah Ha! Sabine. I love your presentations. I Always love to hear your thinking. With a bit of dry fun included. You make me laugh with some of your insights. Keep going, Professor. Thank you for your Wisdom.
Is surreal to see a scientist like her advertise NordVPN just like all the other TH-camrs 🤣
Gotta pay those bills somehow. It reminds me of the 1940-50 radio shows where the narrator would spin off into a spot for some product or other - and then back to our show! :D
Very amusing, Sabine. Happy New Year from the island in Scotland. If you want to canoe up to my survivalist cave (80 pints of homebrew IPA stashed) let me know.
12:30 I don't consider a supervolcano eruption an ELE event.
yes, massive damage and such, but not an ELE.
Ash is easier cleaned up than radioactive material.
That _Pirates of the Caribbean_ burn…
Very interesting. I am currently reading a book called "scary smart" about AI. It's interesting that the author of this book has wildly different expectations of tha pace of AI development in the coming decades. I do hope Sabines prediction is the more accurate!
you might like Robert Miles' channel, in case you haven't checked it out already. He has nice discussions on the topic. He is mostly in the camp of "we should take this seriously", but seems fairly balanced in his discussion.
@@user-sl6gn1ss8p thanks, I'll take a look
As usual, Sabine gets to the central issue. Until AI learns to physically maintain itself, including a never-ending supply of electricity, and reproduce , I don't see it taking over the world. The real issue is that some AI system could intentionally cause us problems;. However, we can always unplug it but then we are left to clean up the mess and redesign that AI system. Assuming that it is critical in our hyper-connected world of systems means that it could be very disruptive. But not the end of a human domination.
@@kcgilford518 I don't know, i feel like that heavily depends on what you mean by "taking over the world". Sure, physically subjugating humans may need physical independence, but there are more subtle ways of progressively gaining control
Woow, I'm speechless, I've been watching some of your videos for a couple of weeks and I've never seen a youtube channel as awesome and fun to watch as yours. I'm kind of new in the world of tech, I started as a 19 years old girl, and now, after after some years, I can't believe how similar 'tech researchers' are to the ones you mention, like, it makes sense, but I was so innocent. Amazing channel Sabine.
Some days I am already overwhelmed worrying about my family and myself to be worried about society and the species.
lol, worrying is a stupid waste of time!...fixing and preparing-against problems are the only smart reactions.
@@douglasharley2440 Gras is green.
@@aljoschalong625 not bluegrass.
@@douglasharley2440 And for people with deuteroanomaly ("color blindness").
What I meant and hoped would be clear (silly me): What you write is true but super trivial. Everyone knows that. And that's the interesting thing: How do people do things they absolutely know they're wrong?
@@aljoschalong625 lol, i have surmounted many difficult problems in my life, and i hate bellyachers. people are soft because they are not forced to become hard. 🤣
I don't understand how anyone can believe that autogenocide of some kind is anything but inevitable given the variety and multitude of possible ways we have set in motion.
Thanks for addressing the issue.
We like to know we can control what we do, just as we mostly don't get injured when using knives, saws and sledge hammers, or even when driving one of those deadly coffins on wheels we call "cars". Same with nukes, right? 😅
Just because there are many ways something could happen, doesn't mean that it will happen. For example, there are many ways I could forget to make dinner on any one day, but I often still eat dinner.
3:30 'Not good' does not always equal 'bad'. There's also neutral.
But once humans are gone, is there any 'bad' at all?
Great video, although I think it's underestimating the existential risk from AGI a fair bit, especially the "let's just extrapolate this" part. There's a lot of interesting research on AI safety out there :)
Yeah, I feel Sabine didn't do this particular topic justice.
Her claim is that we won't be able to run AGI at consumer hardware for a few hundred years.
a) that seem extremely unlikely to me.
b) even if it were true, it doesn't solve alignment in any way.
The thing that "worries" me about AI is the possibility that it will become intelligent enough to learn enough about programming that it can create its own AI that is better than any human made AI. At that point we are looking at a snowball effect of more and more intelligent AIs until we end up with something like Derek in The Good Place.
That's exactly my concern too.
yeah but you need hardware to run it. I would love to see a proof that this snowballeffect is even possible.
@@BlaBla-lz4pv It's easy enough to imagine an AI that is capable of writing a more intelligent AI also being capable of replacing itself on its own hardware, hacking into a supercomputer and putting its new AI there, or writing a distributed computing application that it either distributes as a virus across the internet, or as a SETI like program.
But, remember that I said I'm worried about the possibility of it happening, not that it is a sure thing. I don't know if it is or isn't possible.
Today, I asked chatGPT to program a Sudoku solver in rust and it came up with a working version. But when I ask chatGPT for an artificial intelligence, it gives me some text with an descriptions of the general steps to take. So: Not yet.
@@rickseiden1 Yes, but then the hardware is a limiting factor. One could disconnect their computers from the internet. You need to give them reproductive parts that are capable of making more hardware for it to spread at any decent speed
And no, AI's taking over the factories to produce them will only result in linear growth (proportional to the number of factories) rather than exponential growth (proportional to the number of AIs)
Very enlightening and easy for me, the unscientific to understand. Subscribed!
Thanks for another great video. I have enjoyed all of your content this year and I look forward to much more next year! Happy New Year to you and yours!
I'd say the risks are 100%. The timing, however, is what matters :-)
With space travel on the horizon, we may become immune to extinction events.
@@michaelwinter742 would a handful of us be enough to carry us forward? Space expansion is being restricted by governments and billionaires. Exploration by foundations/organizations is restricted unless backed by the overlords and not actual worker ants
@@IronKore Probably not. A spaceship would need to be extremely large to allow for enough individuals to provide adequate genetic diversity to keep a species alive. However, we can store frozen sperm, eggs, and embryos - which could be made into people when we got to a place suitable for colonization.
Michael, agreed! Though I’m a botanist and soils guy. Take a look at the Biosphere experiments from the 1990s. We have a hard time understanding why it is hard to restore Earth habitats we’ve degraded, much less creating a habitat ourselves that we can survive in to travel to and terraform other worlds
@@IronKore Space travel is an extremely difficult task that requires vast resources to accomplish. It’s not something available by default that is being taken away from you by elites. Those governments and billionaires are actually the ones pushing forward space travel so that it might one day be accessible to more and more people. If those resources were equally distributed, no one would be going to space.
I love your subtle humor!
I came for the science talk, I stayed for the puns.
apparently sabine hasn't read about the stanford alpaca AI model. Trained a model that was within 90% of GPT3.5 given a single GPU. There is a LOT of room to make these things a lot better with a lot less hardware.
Stanford Alpaca is a training data set, not a model. The stanford model, trained on the alpaca dataset is available on huggingface (along with others trained on the same data set). If you try some of the models trained on this dataset, and run on a single GPU (like a A10g) on places like huggingface- you'll quickly discover that the 90% performance is on very unrealistic benchmarks of performance that don't compare meaningful to GPT-3.5 (or even 3 or 2)
@@sophiophile ok sure.. maybe so. but I still maintain that Sabine is off here. NVIDIA just announced their H100 GPU/TPU, which is estimated to increase the rate of inference here by around 30 times - and it scales linearly with the number of chips that you throw at it. With this chipset, a GPT-4 equivalent can run with 2 H100s at around 1400 watts. And that is one announcement (albeit a big one). They also so happen to have revolutionized the production of these chips by a breakthrough which allows wafers to be etched by light patterns computed by GPUs rather than CPUs, so the chance that this will stay state of the art is slim.
Combine that with the alpaca sized datasets and we are likely to see lots of these smaller bots work their way into everything.
@@gregmattson2238 100%. If you want to learn more about all the crazy stuff Nvidia is doing+powering, register and watch some of the videos from Nvidia's GTC conference that just happened. They mention a bunch of what you said (and more) in the keynote, and there are probably 100+ in depth talks on different topics. I recently switched from time series forecasting with ML to customized LLMs (including fine-tuned GPT-3 models, you can't fine tune 3.5 or 4 yet unless you get granted early access), it's a really interesting field.