By popular vote, here we are. One challenge with covering Ukraine is that there can be a lot of pressure to express confidence about how it will end. That's hard enough with any war, harder still with one like this one where the margins are comparatively thin and the number of potential wildcard factors is so high. After recording this, I thought it might be worth adding a reflection in a comment. I think the biggest trap in 2024 would be to think of this war as 'settled' in its outcome. Russia's materiel resources at this moment are greater than Ukraine's but not infinite (as we explore in this video) and their way of war so far has been inherently more resource intensive. Western economic power is much, much greater than Russia's - but it's willingness to convert that economic power into support for Ukraine is uncertain. And that's before you start considering more battlefield centric factors. Back in March 2022 I argued this thing was closer than it appears and that the outcome was uncertain. It's rather sombre to think that two years and hundreds of thousands of damaged or destroyed lives later, both of those statements likely still hold true.
Hey Perun, I noticed you speak a lot faster now which makes it hard to concentrate on what you're saying. Unfortunately .75 speed is too slow to fix it, I liked your original pace from 2022. Thanks for making these vids.
It’s the current technology that’s the problem. Hard to carry out maneuvers when a drone is gonna spot the entire attacking force before they even get to their jumping off point, add trenches, mines, FPV drones, modern anti-tank weaponry and it’s no wonder both sides are having a hard time advancing.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik It also doesn't help that both countries are better at air defence than air superiority when air supremacy is one of the most offensive ways to wage war.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik don't worry, the army already has working prototypes for photonic and IR cloaking There could be an invisible drone twenty feet away from you right now (There's also a style of cloaking where it basically takes in the light fed in by one side and broadcasts it out the other, so it just looks like its environment from any angle - i think these are in use in the Polish border iirc)
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with "stalemate," because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian productions down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙🇺🇦🛩️
It prepares you for adjusting your opinion when something unexpected happens or turns out to be wrong. Instead of going into defensive/denial mode, you can just go "Ah, this was one of the things Perun warned us might happen due to incomplete sources. Time to adjust the data." It's not that he predicts exactly what the unexpected or inaccurate thing is, just that something is possible, even likely, to happen.
Have to hand it to you Perun, after watching these from the beginning, the quality of content, intelligence, common sense, and humour has me coming back every week. Shortly after you started, I became a Patreon as well and in the end it is not because of the high quality of content slide decks and amazing commentary that keeps me supporting you, it is your humble humility in appreciation of what is happening to your channel and that you consistently do your best to give all us a little bit of knowledge to approach all of this with a bit more knowledge in our daily conversations with our fellow citizens. Thanks for teaching all of us, it is appreciated. Keep up the amazing work, it is truly appreciated and I would say, you've got enough content now to be Professor Perun.
It is up to the EU to get Ukraine weapons now but they seem to be unwilling or unable to do it. Other than some small ammo shipments from the Czechs and the Finns.
The sanctions are affecting innocent lives, common Russians and foreign residents in Russia. Those dependent on international incomes now blocked are being starved while the targeted elite are doing fine. So please enlighten me, who are the bad guys? As a British citizen resident in Russia, My British pension has been stopped, thanks to Citibank refusing cash transactions in Russia alone, Discriminated as the continue to transact British pensioners to the rest of the world.
@@ari_a2764 Ahh, I think I see now - we're talking about households that use less than 2000kWh per year? In that case, yeah, it seems like Germany have it the highest - unless you count Lichtenstein. Ostpolitik really didn't work out.
@@MeeesterBond17 majority of the price is just taxes and shutting off nuclear energy, increasing carbon tax all while being in an overall energy crisis and having to transform your energy infrastructure is really not a good idea but one thing the german gov has is money so they just throw it at everything we have spend billion in over a decade for renewable energy more than any other country and we still have only reached less than 50% on the energy mix its not smart overall germany sucks for renewables, the sun barely shines here, we dont have a lot of space for wind and our coastline isnt that big on top of that our infamous bureaucracy that just swallows taxpayer money a solar panel farm in california would generate a lot more energy in a 1 year than all of germanys solar panels combined simply because they actually have sunny weather
@@MeeesterBond17 regarding energy price look up the price per kwh on the oecd or eurostat germany is the m ost expensive with almost 50 cents per kwh on average.
Actually I think it is a friendly aknowlidgement of another youtuber. It wasn't really critisism, as William Spaniel uses the "lines on maps" as a metaphor for a lot of analytical aspects. Watch his latest video on Taiwan, where the lines represent degrees of autonomy - which of course isn't really measured by lines on a map. (Well, there can be some correlation, but not necessarily. That's why it's funny that he uses a map of Taiwan as a background wallpaper in his latest video analysis.)
A note on 155mm vs. 152mm shells, I watched a video from Garand Thumb where he interviewed a couple of English speaking volunteers that had been in the Ukraine foreign legion. One of the most fascinating takeaways was that the 152mm shells were not fragmenting effectively. They would break into a few large pieces because their steel had not been properly hardened this had the effect of seriously reducing the fragmentation pattern and lethal effects of the shell. These men claimed that they had been within 50 meters of 152mm impacts this surprised Garand Thumb who has personally seen impacts from 155mm and hitting within 50 meters of the target was a reliable way to never walk again. This makes a major difference in how much ammunition you need to effectively suppress/destroy a target.
German nebelwerfer did spread many tiny shrapnels and was very accurate. Russian katjusha was slightly less accurate and spread large shrapnels. Russian bombardments was often, but not always larger. And each side believed the other side to be more effective than their own. Nebelwerfer was more likely to hit people. While katjusha was very inaccurate and not likely to hit anyone, but if you were unlucky and got hit by a big shrapnel then chances were pretty high that you were going to die.
It has been said by many analysts (including ISW) that Russia needs to use 4 times as many artillery shells, compared with western delivered ones, to get the same effect. Worse quality shells in addition to worse quality barrels will do that.
If you’re laying in a 1m deep narrow trench (which is the absolute first thing everyone in this war tries to construct when attempting to hold a position) , you could be 10m from either shells explosion and be physically unaffected. Larger chunk might be significantly more effective in penetrating and damaging entrenchments and field fortifications as well.
The fact that Perun can get such high views for such long videos which are PowerPoint presentations speaks to his great ability as a content creator! Thanks Perun.
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
@@dominien6487Willian Spaniel is the closest content creator to Perun that I can think of, but even then, his content is still significantly different than Perun's.
"Or maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some good ideas after all and decides to get the Grand Arme back together again." These passive jokes and one-liners are amazing.
To understand it you have to get into the heads of every loyal political figure in Russia. Many of them don’t like Putin very much and know that they would do better job with country. They are corrupt, but not fixated on “making Russia great again” through war and at any cost. However they know that if Putin will ever perceive them as a threat, they will be removed or killed. And who has most reasons to be afraid of that than men who sit in presidents chair and was relatively OK president? Medvedev now would eat babies on TV to be perceived as worse candidate than Putin.
@@shrygguras a non-Russian who was born and grew up partially in Russia I would die for some good шашлык. There are many skewer dishes around the world but these ones just hit differently for me. Probably childhood nostalgia.
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
One of the reasons why i come back week after week is simple because you mange to convey the hard facts and topics without judgement but at the same time not without losing the human touch. And that when you have an hour long video not only do you manage to explain every topic without repeating the same point you manage to do so while bringing up the logic behind your reasoning, your sources and how likely it is that the sorces might be wrong. So many other work on the concept of trust me bro ^^
And here I am thinking I came here to hear how Ukraine is actually winning (irrespective of events that occurred in reality) and Russia has a slim to none chance of winning vs the almighty NATO machine.
I love how for just a few weeks everything in Ukraine suddenly stopped and both sides were just sitting there stunned like, "........Why is Wagner invading Russia???"
@@neenee8194 On the contrary. They would win if Prigozhin would not make obviously stupid move. Literally everyone know he was dead man, when he believed Herr Putler.
Man, this one is chock full of memorable quotes: "Listening to Medvedev, an activity that should come with a warning label" "A formering catering boss decides to start a mutiny and march on your capital" "Maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some decent ideas after all and tries to get the Grande Armee gang together again" "The price of Russian oil might be sensitive to things like the Ukrainian firing drones at Russian oil infrastructure" "Nobody ever stopped a tank assault with a macroeconomic statistic" "Marching to Kiev in a road made of your own destroyed tank hulls" "Irreplaceable pieces of archeotech for the Russian military"
Have you considered putting these on Spotify as podcasts? I often listen to these while doing something else and not needing to leave my phone unlocked would be very nice
Br*ve browser (as in, "not scared") I replaced Chrome with it, easy transfer of everything. Stellar mobile phone usage, pretty allright desktop usage experience 👍
It's released as a podcast about two days after appearing on YT - but not on Spotify. I get it on Podcast Addict - which is not as easy to use as Spotify, but at least it doesn't have the awful ads. It might be available on other podcast apps as well. I've no idea why Perun doesn't mention this in the YT blurb, as it's a much easier way to listen to his 'videos' - you don't really need to see the slides, and you don't get all the ads, plus you don't have to keep your phone switched on, like you do with YT, so you can walk/garden/work whilst listening. I actually find that I need to watch/listen to most episodes more than once, so I typically listen both on YT and as a podcast, depending on what I'm doing at the time.
@@paulhaynes8045 Is it perun himself uploading or a reuploader? I remember that he had a case of someone impersonating him so I would be sus on accounts he doesn't publicly acknowledge, though reuploading on a podcast app is certainly not that harmful
> Medvedev's statements Well, I tend to think he's playing a role of crazy drunk warmonger to not look like a threat to Putin and to therefore avoid ending up on board of a plane juggling hand grenades while on cocaine.
I absolutely love Peruns style of presenting, I equally love William Spaniels style, what I enjoy is the casual mention by both of their signature references, like "lines on maps" & "Emutopia & Kiwiland" Both of them do a great job of keeping us engaged and informed. Thanks Perun.
Pretty sure that he talked at length in the Q & A vid about formerly being a big time fan of Warhammer, but life and GW prices in Australia pushed him out of the hobby.
Perun, I love being along for the ride. You have the ability to make the most mind numbingly boring topics just fasinating. I've enjoyed every topic you have broadcast even when I didn't think I was interested in them - Well done.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with stalemate, because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦 🛩️
Haha imagine going to war to get some money only to discover staying home and working your stupid factory job would have given you double the money plus you could keep all limbs and life probably.
I’m going to through this out there. For an April fools episode it’d be pretty fun to get an analysis of the standing of the Imperium of Man, from Warhammer 40k.
I started this episode over again immediately after I finished a first listen. Perun presents me with an enormous amount of information about the world, and this is absolutely brilliant! I run several of the episodes over and over again because Perun’s knowledge of geopolitics is endlessly provocative, and is exactly what the American public-overrun with conspiracy theories-needs urgently!!
That Bit about skynetsky burning down the russian oil infrastructure made me laugh out loud so hard. I had to rewind about a minute to remember what you were even talking about beforehand
It is heartening to know that there are 500,000 of my fellow humans who recognize the importance of deep and thoughtful analysis, it gives me some hope for our collective future. Sadly, we're nowhere near being a majority but we are still out here fighting our own long war. This Perun army.
My sunday afternoon ritual consists of a large cup of coffee, some sweets or cookies, and listening to my favorite Australian PowerPoint man explain defense logistics and economics. Thank you again mate for some truly top of the line analysis content. To quote Macho Man Randy Savage: "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better!"
Economically, South Africa during the late 1980s might be a good comparison to look at. The border war with Angola and wider sanctions against South Africa meant that the country had to produce most of its materiel domestically. At that time South Africa was the No 1 gold (and diamond?) exporter in the world so they used this to prop up foreign currency reserves. However, eventually the war became so expensive that it partly lead to Namibia gaining independence, and the end of the apartheid system. Inflation was increasing, people were getting poorer on average, and the rational behind fighting has to be reevaluated. The calculus eventually becomes to what extent the Russian population is willing to suffer. In the regions they already are, but what happens when Moscovites and St Petersburgers start suffering and seeing their life's savings evaporate while the grocery store shelves become empty?
and yet again, after so many presentations (since "all bling" and I seriously can't remember how many it is now) The quality still remains brilliant. Thank you so much
Congratulations on 500k subscribers! You've definitely earned it. I really appreciate you sharing the benefit of your experience. Today's vid was exceptional in that regard.
56:24 16k dead (assuming numbers aren’t spoofed) multiplying that by 3 and adding back the dead we get 64k losses killed and wounded in 5 months in one small town
There's an awful lot of sour grapes about how much Russia lost to take Avdiivka but conspicuously absent criticism for how much Ukraine lost to fail at taking Robotyne
ukraine lost alot of western tanks during that. The issue is that western tanks are irreplaceable. Whats worse? losing 100 t-90s when you can make 30 a month or 10 leopards when you cant make them and only have 30
The best assessments of russian losses in Avdiivka between October 2023 and February 2024 were 16-17,000 killed (cargo 300) and 30,000 wounded (cargo 200). Most of the wounded take large doses of shrapnel, limb loss and a large percentage are maimed for life. So, that's ~45-50,000 casualties to take an all but empty town of ~30,000. In photographically verified equipment loss, the ratio of russian equipment to Ukraine equipment lost ranged from 12 to 1 to 20 to 1 over the same period. Ukrainian losses remained low until the end, when they took much greater personnel casualties. russia is the aggressor in this war, to achieve putin's dubious goals, they need to take all of Ukraine. They can't do it. @Theaverageazn247 the rate russia is losing armour is unsustainable. Since the beginning of this year, they have lost: 851 tanks; 1988 APVs; and 2250 artillery systems - in 80 days. They've taken around 74k troop casualties in the same period. They can't defend the skies, because they're down 3 A-50s, and large slabs of their air defences - plus, they now need air defences in russia. Based on Perun's estimates of troop losses of 50k/6 mths "pressure figure" before you suffer capability degradation, 80 days into the year, they are 50% over the 6 mth limit. That will cause problems. Ukraine has done this while suffering "shell starvation". It was the pivotal causal factor that cost them Avdiivka. Beware that wars are not won and lost on maps. The biggest risk russia faces is domestic production; inflation; collapsing oil refinery capacity; and other similar factors. The biggest risk Ukraine faces lies in Washington and especially Miami, home of the orange moron.
@@fretworka3596 That's a rather tendentious recitation of selected facts and guesses. For example, you select Russia's supposed casualties from one battle in which it seems to have done a Pyrrhic job of it--but don't mention Ukrainian casualties (which are concealed by the Ukrainians for some reason). There's certainly no doubt about the disproportionate equipment losses Russia has suffered. Casualty ratios are less clear, since we don't have comparable accuracy in casualty counts on either side. Russia may discover, when it runs low on armor, as Ukraine did early in the war, that armor is less important in trench warfare that also includes lots of anti-armor infantry weapons, plus rapidly increasing drone capabilities. Russia's has considerable control over its casualty rate: it has held the initiative for 80% of this war. Ukraine's offensive, when it was replete with shells over the summer, went poorly. It lost Bakhmut despite adequate amounts of shells. You don't know why it lost Avdiivka. It may have been staff level incompetence--they certainly failed in the last days and lost many POWs without good cause. Russia's first risk is political, the replacement of Putin, after his demise, with someone either less competent at management (not that Putin's great) or perceived by the domestic audience as weak (like the weak-witted Nicholas II). Its second risk is that the Americans ramp up their war industry and also do things like send a thousand M-1 tanks or 100 F-16 fighters, flown by mercenary pilots hired at stratospheric prices from non-NATO countries. Of course, if America had a real President rather than a sleepy old corruptocrat, this sort of thing could have already happened. With Biden, Ukraine has the worst of both worlds: a man who can't make peace since he has no real power within his regime, yet can't support war since he has no real power to control the American-Mexican border and thereby cut a deal with America's patriot party. With the return of Trump, all such options will finally be on the table. Putin and Xi are in Biden's corner, along with all the traitors.
Because perhaps seemingly paradoxically the west relies heavily on propaganda to galvanize public support for sending weapons to Ukraine, and specifically the kind of propaganda that amplifies Ukrainian victories. In Russian not so much, for a long time Russian media tried to avoid talking about the war at all.
Smarter? Is that what getting another earful of “Ukraine is actually winning despite what events have taken place in the last x days since perun’s last video saying the same?”
Big congrats Perun for 500K, well deserved mate! And I should also like to say a big thank you to all the people who help Perun out behind the scenes financially and with information and support; it's you lot all working together that allows us lot in the wider Perun community to enjoy a fantastic presentation each week for the low price of watching a few adverts. Big thanks.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with (stalemate) because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦🛩️
I assume that the condition of the systems that the Russians have in storage that have been refurbished are those that were in a better condition to start with. If they were told to rush to repair the old toss they had, they're not going to start with most damaged systems because they need it as soon as possible. So I assume the more damaged systems are those they still have in storage and will then later be forced to repair at a greater cost of resources, expertise, and time than those they have previously repaired to send to Ukraine. I assume this would increase the rate of loss as less vehicles are available for the front over time and at an even lower quality.
Good for the Czechs for prioritizing getting ammunition to Ukraine now, and being creative in finding ammunition around the world. And not content to just say, well, in theory, Europe will be producing a lot by the end of the year and hopefully, that will be soon enough. Ukraine needs help now. America is stalled now by a very narrow gerrymandered Republican majority in the House. But this is temporary. By next January will will have the same President and a very different Congress. But in the meantime, Europe will have to carry the load of supporting Ukraine, unless some breakthrough occurs in the House soon.
There is no instance of a nation benefiting from a prolonged war. - Tsun Tzu, The Art of War. (The loading screen of a video game about prolonged war in which I am currently playing)
Interesting that "just in time" logistics work fine for a grocery store or restaurant but not for a military. Why haven't governments figured that out and made that case to their publics and taxpayers with vested interests? The British approach of having dockyards constantly busy with something so that they don't fall idle is looking better and better than low volume a la cart contracts.
It is important that the wrong lessons aren't learned from this conflict. The way nato doctrine works is to avoid these trench slugfests from the get go. If this had been a nato war this conflict would never even have decended into what it is now. Decisive airpower and long range precision strikes would have severely handicaped the russian ability to dig in like this. Nato is now trying to support a war it itself would never have had to fight. Which is one of the major problems in supplying ukraine with what it needs. A nato russo war would look nothing like what we are seeing in ukraine, learning the wrong lessons from it is very dangerous.
@@rogerk6180 The Lancet etc are an absolute changer, and until they are adequately protected in every sphere, supply cannot be expected to work on just-in-time. There's no possible way that between constant disruption and constant accurate targeting of supply depots with no warning, such a system would keep an army. I'm shocked the Russians have managed at all, except I remember they don't care if their troops freeze.
A few notes re artillery: 1) in addition to the 2 new plants in GER and Ukr, Rheinmetall is still increasing production at its existing factories in GER and Spain. 2) In addition to the Czech initiative, GER did buy 120k rounds of 122mm from Bulgaria in January. They should arrive in late March. 3) By 2025, the new SMArt155 2.0 rounds should be ready. 4) in addition to the 78 Caesars, Ukr will also get more Archer, Zusannas and RCH155 (Boxer AGM) in 2024, plus more PzH and RCH in 2025. 5) Despite lack of ammo, Ukr claims of destroyed RUS guns went from 600 in Dec 23 to 700 in Jan 24 to 900 in Feb 24. I think this shows nicely the problems caused to RUS of relying on older, shorter ranged guns. 6) There are RUS sources saying that RUS gun numbers in the Ukr theater of ops was actually declining by 600 arti pieces in February. If you take that at face value, RUS is finally reaching the limits of its capabilities re ramping up its forces from depots. 7) My gut says RUS will run out of barrels in late fall.
My hunch is you are probably wrong on that one. Looking at the SP guns the West will send doesn't answer how many have been destroyed. I am fairly sure Ukraine doesn't or won't have 78 Cesars operational
In June 2022, the Federal Ministry of Economics granted Rheinmetall authorisation for the delivery of 100 PzH 2000s to Ukraine the supply of which was to begin in 2024, i.e. now. I don't think we will learn everything from the media, as I haven't learnt anything about the status of this delivery anywhere. Im Juni 2022 erteilte das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium der Firma Rheinmetall die Genehmigung für die Lieferung von 100 PzH 2000 an die Ukraine, deren Zulauf 2024 beginnen sollte, also jetzt. Ich habe nirgendwo etwas über den Stand dieser Lieferung erfahren.
@@michaelneuwirth3414 There was a permit issued, but no contract concluded at the time. Ukr preferred spending the limited aid money on other stuff back then. A deal over 18 PzH for Ukr, to be financed by GER, was announced late 2023.
Thanks for the tip. I have been following the events since 2022 and this information completely passed me by. Where could you get this information? Danke für den Hinweis. Ich verfolge das Geschehen seit 2022 und diese Information ist völlig an mir vorübergegangen. Wo haben sie diese Information gefunden?
"... a former catering boss decides to stage a mutiny." Omg dude warn us before you say things like that. I need a new keyboard! And monitor! And stomach lining!
And obviously all these considerations go out the window when NATO stops being cowards and revokes the ban for Ukraine to use Western (cruise) missiles for hitting military targets in Russia. Ending the frankly ridiculous situation that Russia has started a war with six-figure casualties without being noticably bombed. Then Russian supplies will be measured in weeks remaining.
Everyone else is screaming ‘look at me, look at me, look at me’ but you just hunker down and say 'please listen to me for just a sec’. This is what I feel is the ‘secret sauce’ of this channel. Perun doesn't really use hyperbole, unless he is making a quip to lighten the load (and the humour is very ozzie which I appreciate more than he can appreciate). The slide show format is refreshing as I’m pretty bored with videos filled with stock footage, and or a human head glaring at me from out of the screen.A lot of other people feel that they should mimic an American game show host. I very much appreciate your disdain for catchphrases like ‘game changer’ and you never seem to use that other modern form of punctuation ‘as well’. You show all your working and references, and never insist that you have the ultimate answer. In the ol days men marched off to war thinking it was all going to be a great adventure. Thanks to people like yourself and the marvel that is the internet, it’s a bit harder for governments to process an ignorant population into mincemeat.
He doesn't say anything, in the end. And when things go south, as they are, then will, he can say, "Oh, I never said Ukraine was going to win, I said it 'might' win, if it gets enough X, Y, and Z. That is why he never commits in his conclusions. Ever.
@@nickcharles1284I mean that's the point. Afaik what he does is analysis. I know it is easy to forget with everyone in the media throwing wild guess around as if they were the certain truth in order to gain favor with whatever "side" they have chosen but the goal of analysis is not to be able to make predictions that are 100% made to happen. I find it weird that your criticism of him is based on him doing his job well and not lowering himself to the point others have.
@@marte9346No,he doesn't do analysis. He talks endlessly about weapon's systems, and the maybe's of production and supply. He has no expertise in the following: He doesn't know Russian language, culture or history. Or Russian economy or production ability. He has no deep understanding of economics, European history, the motives of the West, the production capability of the West. He doesn't understand warfare, particularly modern warfare and what is required. Had he this understanding, he would have been able to understand that it was NATO expanding into Ukraine that was a definitive security red line for Russia, that this stance by Russia was coherent and completely valid, and that Russia had not only the economic potential but also the military and technical ability to prosecute its will successfully. When the special operation began commentators experts not aligned with US neoconservatives and elite interests correctly summed up the situation: Russia had the economic, military and industrial capability to win any military conflict on its doorstep. That Ukraine would not only lose, but be destroyed, either as a power or simple outright as a country. These include The Duran, Alexander Mercouris, Col Doublas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Ambassador Chaz Freeman, and a host of others that the MSM simply ignored. Perun failed to see this because 1. he has no expertise as I noted, and 2. very importantly he has taken the West's propaganda as actual fact. He believes what Zelensky has been saying for the last 2 years, and believes the MSM. And his job is to help pump out a product that puts as positive a spin on that propaganda as possible, so fans of Western Intervention can live in a dream world as long as possible, for as many clicks and coin as possible. He feeds delusion, he does no provide pragmatic analysis. Which is why he never commits to a conclusion. It is hard to know if he actually believes what he is saying, or if he is a massive cynic. But what it has sounded like for 2 years is Hitler transmitting from his bunker in 1945; listening to Russian artillery landing on the Chancellery in Berlin, whist ordering long destroyed armies to engage and encircle and destroy the Russian scourge. Thought for the day: during the entire SMO, Russia has only committed about a 4th of its entire military might, and of this quarter only a third has been committed to battle.
West needed to step up and support Ukraine in a way to counter and repel Russia's aggression in these two years, to show resolve and make a statement not allowing that kind of aggression. Providing protected Ukraine zones by the West and making available to them any weapon system ASAP.. it would be over in 12 months.. Russia can bark all they want about escalation..but they know West has more technology and capability, they know the West would stand while Russia is obliterated, as well as their allies that support their agenda.
Every American voter, every member of Congress, in particular isolationists and (incredible that I am saying this about “American” voters and politicians in 2024) pro-Russians that happen to have American citizenship should be required to see this video amongst others. Elon Musk… he might need to become more educated on the topic as well.
Thankyou Perun, proud to have you representing us! "Bringing the thunder from Downunder!" I found your remarks about the changes in class and economics within Russia especially insightful and interesting. Awesome work mate! ❤ (And continuing to think of the civilians caught up in this meatgrinder...)
I always found it weird how Russia goes on about NATO expansion all the time but their actions have led to NATO expansion and they don't actually seem to give a shit about countries actually joining NATO. They only seem to really care about Ukraine.
Its also strange that they fear Nato will attack them and say the war in Ukraine is therefore self-defence. And in the next moment they say that Nato is pathetically weak and does not have the ammunition to win a war with russia. And now they are moving their last remaining air defence systems from Kaliningrad to Ukraine - which I take as a sign that they are not the least afraid of Nato invading their most vulnerable outpost of russia.
They did not have the means to do anything about the NATO expansion once their offensive potential was already engaged in Ukraine. That is why they were kind of tail between their legs about it. Their adventure in Ukraine was all about pre-empting Ukraines NATO membership and a regime change into a more Russian minded one. They just expected it to be over in a few weeks.
it was hardly a strange fear...misguided but utterly rational from their point of view.... NATO has been Wooing Ukraine since the 90's and after the insurrection that ousted the government, its position of non aligned state melted away...and NATO acceptance which was already well under way at that point became an inevitability.. Which left Russia with the option of either allowing Sevastopol to become a NATO harbor and sit quietly while NATO built its bases along that 1000 mile long border right within spitting distance of Moscow or attempt something reckless to throw a spanner in NATO long term plans before it was to late...which they did in a spectacular and bloody fashion . I dislike what Russia did immensely ...but I'm not willfully blind to why they did it... For example if Scotland had actually gained its independence a few years back, and a decade later after a coup that ousted its current government for a hard left replacement it had begun to make inroads to align itself with the CCP to eventually put itself under its security umbrella and open its north sea ports to Chinese warships while planning to move large amounts of Chinese men and materials to the English border (purely for defense of course) as soon as the treaty was ratified.....how would NATO and the Nations directly bordering this potential incursion react? I mean if the scottish people had chosen this willingly there shouldn't be any issue ...right? @@nattygsbord
@@johntowers1213 Certainly wouldn't have reacted by invading Scotland and there's no example to suggest otherwise. I do also suspect USA would be in total bliss and very supportive of Scotland for making sure Europe had stakes in a conflict with China.
It's not weird if you consider that this whole thing is just intended to stay in power. It's gone wrong (they clearly expected it'd be like Crimea/Georgia), but that does not change the underlying objectives. Stay in power.
one thing perun never talks about is that the russian invasion force laggs behind the ukranian in numerical count. it came in at 300k and grew to 600k-700k while ukranian one was emediately mobilised to 700k the first year then grew to almost 1.4 million that extreme growth allowed the ukranians to take back some territories like herson and harkov however this is not a long term strategy to win the war against russia.
Yes but what you dont mention is that not even close to 1.4million ukranian soldiers at actively engaged in combat. A huge portion of those soldiers are requiered to guard the border or are in reserve( since the quality of these units isnt high)
Warm weather. Cold drink. Some peanuts.. And just when the day was excellent. My Sunday shot of Australian powerpoint dopamine has arrived. And now my Sunday is made❤
“Babe, come here. Another hour long PowerPoint video just dropped!” I also think that “A Mussolini style relationship with a lamp post.” is one of the best quotes from the video🤣
All videos about the Ukraine war right now: "basically, Ukraine can still win this, but the West needs to get their collective head out of their ass like, yesterday"
Goddamnit Perun, I was taking a drink when you said “Skynetski” and choke, coughed, and snorted scotch through my nose trying to laugh. Funny as hell, but I wasn’t expecting it then.
0:00: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine with a focus on military and economic balance. 5:11: ⚔️ Evolution of drone technology and tactics in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia in 2024. 9:46: ⚔️ Analysis of military balance and strategic situation in ongoing conflict. 14:42: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, caution against premature declarations of victory, and the importance of resources and willpower in determining the outcome. 19:47: 🛢️ Complexity of Russian oil prices influenced by various factors including output cuts and geopolitical tensions. 25:01: ⚔️ Russia's rapid increase in war spending poses a significant challenge for Ukraine's allies. 30:10: ⚔️ Challenges and opportunities in Russian military and economic balance in 2024. 35:29: ⚔️ Analysis of military and economic output in Ukraine war, comparing US and Russian munition production. 40:26: ⚔️ Material advantage in production does not guarantee victory if consumption rates are higher. 45:33: ⚔️ Analysis of military equipment depletion and future losses in the Ukraine War. 50:42: 🔍 Transformational changes in Russian artillery park in Ukraine compared to pre-war numbers. 55:33: 💪 Challenges and strengths of Russian and Ukrainian forces in 2024 1:00:39: ⚖️ Assessment of the military balance in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Timestamps by Tammy AI
Between Mussolini's corpse and Kadyrovtsy-staged "combat" Tik-Toks, fascism has been hell on lampposts. // Thanks Perun for another informative and lively presentation.
Again ... excellent ... and if you can find the time you could put all of your one-liners in book form and make a mint, just sayin' Love the lamp post line, btw. Are all Aussie's as bloody funny as you, mate? Thanks for the videos but now there are hundreds of thousands Perun junkies. 😀
Thanks Perun. Superb as always, unique and by the far the best survey of the situation and outlook which I have seen. You deserve every one of those 500,000 subscribers - and many more.
So basically this year is Russia's best chance, with them trying to push as hard as possible and gain as many objectives (mobilising men to try and take Kharkive) as possible in the hope that a pro putin America pressures Ukraine into peace deal.
Saying that defenses will repeatedly fall back to new lines over the next year, each equally hard to take, is really bad analysis. Isn't adequate defenses not yet being built past Avdiivka the cause of the recent desperate and wasteful holding actions? I guess it won't be too long before we know for sure how serious things are - certainly not a year. The infantile snark is a constant reminder that Perun remains a gaming youtuber on the literal other side of the world, who is just giving people what they want while the patreon revenue flows. Because, even when warranted, being serious, downbeat or even somewhat realistic garners no new customers.
Yes, yes, I’m sure Ukraine is going to fall tomorrow and Russia will take over the entire planet in a few months. President Biden will be ritually sacrificed on a planet wide broadcast to start the new year. Minus the sarcasm, we are dealing with quite a lot of land here. Ukraine is big and Russia has a TON to take if it wants to even approach it’s stated war goals. Armies aren’t exactly known for speed at the best of times, and that is especially true in hostile territory.
41:05 It is more that the Russians are on the offensive, and the offensive now is very materiel demanding. Does not seem that the narrative "Russia is bad at using stuff" is true, but that there is currently no way of taking ground without significant material usage. Just look at the Ukrainian offensives of 2023, which required a large investment of resources and did not succeed. Is Ukraine bad at using stuff?
By popular vote, here we are. One challenge with covering Ukraine is that there can be a lot of pressure to express confidence about how it will end. That's hard enough with any war, harder still with one like this one where the margins are comparatively thin and the number of potential wildcard factors is so high.
After recording this, I thought it might be worth adding a reflection in a comment.
I think the biggest trap in 2024 would be to think of this war as 'settled' in its outcome. Russia's materiel resources at this moment are greater than Ukraine's but not infinite (as we explore in this video) and their way of war so far has been inherently more resource intensive. Western economic power is much, much greater than Russia's - but it's willingness to convert that economic power into support for Ukraine is uncertain. And that's before you start considering more battlefield centric factors.
Back in March 2022 I argued this thing was closer than it appears and that the outcome was uncertain. It's rather sombre to think that two years and hundreds of thousands of damaged or destroyed lives later, both of those statements likely still hold true.
Your hard work is much appreciated, Perun 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thank you for all of your work. You have been great in educating me about these topics and the world.
Thx Perun for the TL/DR and unbiased journalism.
Hey Perun, I noticed you speak a lot faster now which makes it hard to concentrate on what you're saying. Unfortunately .75 speed is too slow to fix it, I liked your original pace from 2022. Thanks for making these vids.
It's refreshing to see your serious and realist approach where everywhere else you have mostly one sided talking points
It's truly insane that warfare in 2024 is a mix of Verdun 1916 and the Terminator universe in 2029.
The more things change the more they stay the same
It’s the current technology that’s the problem. Hard to carry out maneuvers when a drone is gonna spot the entire attacking force before they even get to their jumping off point, add trenches, mines, FPV drones, modern anti-tank weaponry and it’s no wonder both sides are having a hard time advancing.
Sounds like something out of Warhammer 40k.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik It also doesn't help that both countries are better at air defence than air superiority when air supremacy is one of the most offensive ways to wage war.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik don't worry, the army already has working prototypes for photonic and IR cloaking
There could be an invisible drone twenty feet away from you right now
(There's also a style of cloaking where it basically takes in the light fed in by one side and broadcasts it out the other, so it just looks like its environment from any angle - i think these are in use in the Polish border iirc)
I am always amazed at how much knowledge you project without repeating the basics.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with "stalemate," because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian productions down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙🇺🇦🛩️
Even with all the caveats, Perun provides the most accurate assessment I've seen anywhere.
It prepares you for adjusting your opinion when something unexpected happens or turns out to be wrong.
Instead of going into defensive/denial mode, you can just go "Ah, this was one of the things Perun warned us might happen due to incomplete sources. Time to adjust the data."
It's not that he predicts exactly what the unexpected or inaccurate thing is, just that something is possible, even likely, to happen.
@@suntiger745this is called applying reason in general
@@e33d90 And, yet as we see, daily, it is a learned skil and not something humans have innately.
@@suntiger745 agreed
Have to hand it to you Perun, after watching these from the beginning, the quality of content, intelligence, common sense, and humour has me coming back every week. Shortly after you started, I became a Patreon as well and in the end it is not because of the high quality of content slide decks and amazing commentary that keeps me supporting you, it is your humble humility in appreciation of what is happening to your channel and that you consistently do your best to give all us a little bit of knowledge to approach all of this with a bit more knowledge in our daily conversations with our fellow citizens. Thanks for teaching all of us, it is appreciated. Keep up the amazing work, it is truly appreciated and I would say, you've got enough content now to be Professor Perun.
"Skynetsky!" 😂
I never knew how much I need a Napoleon/Macron meme before now.
It is up to the EU to get Ukraine weapons now but they seem to be unwilling or unable to do it. Other than some small ammo shipments from the Czechs and the Finns.
This was really good, very unbiased just facts
500k subscribers! We've come a long way folks. Here's to another 500k!
The sanctions are affecting innocent lives, common Russians and foreign residents in Russia. Those dependent on international incomes now blocked are being starved while the targeted elite are doing fine. So please enlighten me, who are the bad guys? As a British citizen resident in Russia, My British pension has been stopped, thanks to Citibank refusing cash transactions in Russia alone, Discriminated as the continue to transact British pensioners to the rest of the world.
Yeah I still think it's russia tbh
Thoughtful and informative as always
Perun why is the USA economy doing well and germanys in recession? And eho blew up nord stream?
About the economics part germany is in a Recession with loss of gdp for the 2nd quarter in a row
And we have the highest energy prices in the world
Isn't that Ireland with the highest energy prices?
@@MeeesterBond17 no
@@ari_a2764 Ahh, I think I see now - we're talking about households that use less than 2000kWh per year? In that case, yeah, it seems like Germany have it the highest - unless you count Lichtenstein. Ostpolitik really didn't work out.
@@MeeesterBond17 majority of the price is just taxes and shutting off nuclear energy, increasing carbon tax all while being in an overall energy crisis and having to transform your energy infrastructure is really not a good idea
but one thing the german gov has is money so they just throw it at everything
we have spend billion in over a decade for renewable energy more than any other country and we still have only reached less than 50% on the energy mix
its not smart overall germany sucks for renewables, the sun barely shines here, we dont have a lot of space for wind and our coastline isnt that big on top of that our infamous bureaucracy that just swallows taxpayer money
a solar panel farm in california would generate a lot more energy in a 1 year than all of germanys solar panels combined simply because they actually have sunny weather
@@MeeesterBond17 regarding energy price look up the price per kwh on the oecd or eurostat germany is the m ost expensive with almost 50 cents per kwh on average.
Best channel on TH-cam
"Mussolini-style relationship with a lamp post..." - man, those one-liners are devastating... :D
"Doing a proper assessment probably means more than looking at lines on a map" William Spaniel catching strays
Russian army is a complete and utter joke😂
Given all those Mussolini copy cats lining up this one liner needs repeating.
@luvpump171 As a former caterer I can assure you we've all had this dream.
@@bassalomons2082We got a man down!
"Doing a proper assessment probably means more than looking at lines on maps." You hear that? It's the sound of William Spaniel having a heart attack.
Good one 😂
that dude is more interested in selling his pisspoor books than delivering factual information
Arguably not though! War is quite simple, the winner makes territorial gains.
@@camorraII1 if your understanding of war is that of a 3rd grader then yes, war is simple.
Actually I think it is a friendly aknowlidgement of another youtuber. It wasn't really critisism, as William Spaniel uses the "lines on maps" as a metaphor for a lot of analytical aspects. Watch his latest video on Taiwan, where the lines represent degrees of autonomy - which of course isn't really measured by lines on a map. (Well, there can be some correlation, but not necessarily. That's why it's funny that he uses a map of Taiwan as a background wallpaper in his latest video analysis.)
A note on 155mm vs. 152mm shells, I watched a video from Garand Thumb where he interviewed a couple of English speaking volunteers that had been in the Ukraine foreign legion. One of the most fascinating takeaways was that the 152mm shells were not fragmenting effectively. They would break into a few large pieces because their steel had not been properly hardened this had the effect of seriously reducing the fragmentation pattern and lethal effects of the shell. These men claimed that they had been within 50 meters of 152mm impacts this surprised Garand Thumb who has personally seen impacts from 155mm and hitting within 50 meters of the target was a reliable way to never walk again. This makes a major difference in how much ammunition you need to effectively suppress/destroy a target.
That's pretty interesting. I wonder if it was Koreas or Irans contribution ?
Possibly that is from the presumably too old North Korean shells then. Shells have a use-by date. After that date they start to fail.
German nebelwerfer did spread many tiny shrapnels and was very accurate. Russian katjusha was slightly less accurate and spread large shrapnels. Russian bombardments was often, but not always larger. And each side believed the other side to be more effective than their own.
Nebelwerfer was more likely to hit people. While katjusha was very inaccurate and not likely to hit anyone, but if you were unlucky and got hit by a big shrapnel then chances were pretty high that you were going to die.
It has been said by many analysts (including ISW) that Russia needs to use 4 times as many artillery shells, compared with western delivered ones, to get the same effect. Worse quality shells in addition to worse quality barrels will do that.
If you’re laying in a 1m deep narrow trench (which is the absolute first thing everyone in this war tries to construct when attempting to hold a position) , you could be 10m from either shells explosion and be physically unaffected. Larger chunk might be significantly more effective in penetrating and damaging entrenchments and field fortifications as well.
The fact that Perun can get such high views for such long videos which are PowerPoint presentations speaks to his great ability as a content creator! Thanks Perun.
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
@@jochenkirn9468bro talking about Perun like he's Nelson Mandela lol. In reality, reading a script is very different from giving a speech
also speaks to there isnt really anyone else doing similar content consistently (to my knowledge)
the lack of russobots is disappointing.
@@dominien6487Willian Spaniel is the closest content creator to Perun that I can think of, but even then, his content is still significantly different than Perun's.
2 years later, still following every second of every ppt. Do not stop.
Greetings from Warsaw, Poland.
Wasnt there a big demonstration in poland with very strong anti-polish slogans etc?
You mean farmers protest that happenede recently?@@u2beuser714
@@u2beuser714what? No?
I’m pretty sure he is one of about 2-3 TH-camrs where I haven’t missed a single episode .
still as biased as 2 years ago
praise be the god of Thunder, Logistics and Powerpoint for bringing us our weekly infotainment.
Perkele
@@Peacich Faen!
@andersbjrnsen7203 Don't forget the economics aspect, such as Purchasing Power Parity! 😁
@@andersgrassman6583 I see you go for Added Alitterative Appeal here😅
@@Peacich Finnish or Estonian?
"Or maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some good ideas after all and decides to get the Grand Arme back together again."
These passive jokes and one-liners are amazing.
The Ukraine war in 2024 - the shared instinct throughout the world to ignore what Medvedev says 😂
ESPECIALLY since I'm from Russia. A walking caricature
To understand it you have to get into the heads of every loyal political figure in Russia. Many of them don’t like Putin very much and know that they would do better job with country. They are corrupt, but not fixated on “making Russia great again” through war and at any cost. However they know that if Putin will ever perceive them as a threat, they will be removed or killed. And who has most reasons to be afraid of that than men who sit in presidents chair and was relatively OK president?
Medvedev now would eat babies on TV to be perceived as worse candidate than Putin.
@JonTull-fv2tg agreed, mate, although we prefer shish kebab (shashlik, as we call it) to barbecue :)
ignoring medvedev is just the same as ignoring any raging alcoholic in the subway
@@shrygguras a non-Russian who was born and grew up partially in Russia I would die for some good шашлык.
There are many skewer dishes around the world but these ones just hit differently for me. Probably childhood nostalgia.
Shower me in power point presentations!
YESSS!
😌
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
@@jochenkirn9468 you hit the nail on the head
@jochenkirn9468 I also, enjoy the analogies that Perun uses, throwing you into a scenario that's closely related to the topic.
One of the reasons why i come back week after week is simple because you mange to convey the hard facts and topics without judgement but at the same time not without losing the human touch. And that when you have an hour long video not only do you manage to explain every topic without repeating the same point you manage to do so while bringing up the logic behind your reasoning, your sources and how likely it is that the sorces might be wrong. So many other work on the concept of trust me bro ^^
"without judgement"? That's ridiculous.
And here I am thinking I came here to hear how Ukraine is actually winning (irrespective of events that occurred in reality) and Russia has a slim to none chance of winning vs the almighty NATO machine.
Czech Republic mentioned 🇨🇿🇨🇿🇨🇿
People in small countries are so adorable when they get recognition, they're like the meme of that guy pointing at the TV
But not worthy of assessment PowerPoint from Perun
@@hieronymusbutts7349Czechia isn't really a small country
@@bigolboomerbelly4348 i live by the great lakes. When people try to show me a regular lake, I go, "that's not a lake, that's a pond"
@hieronymusbutts7349
Great Lakes are just small seas disguising themselves as lakes
I love how for just a few weeks everything in Ukraine suddenly stopped and both sides were just sitting there stunned like, "........Why is Wagner invading Russia???"
Because Shoigu wanted to sacrifice Prigozhin.
@TheRezro Man I miss the Prighozhin Chronicles. That was better than Game of Thrones (especially season 8).
Wagner realized that marching on moscow is not a good idea
@@neenee8194 On the contrary. They would win if Prigozhin would not make obviously stupid move. Literally everyone know he was dead man, when he believed Herr Putler.
@@neenee8194 Yeah but once you start you might as well go all the way. In for a penny in for a pound at that point.
Man, this one is chock full of memorable quotes:
"Listening to Medvedev, an activity that should come with a warning label"
"A formering catering boss decides to start a mutiny and march on your capital"
"Maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some decent ideas after all and tries to get the Grande Armee gang together again"
"The price of Russian oil might be sensitive to things like the Ukrainian firing drones at Russian oil infrastructure"
"Nobody ever stopped a tank assault with a macroeconomic statistic"
"Marching to Kiev in a road made of your own destroyed tank hulls"
"Irreplaceable pieces of archeotech for the Russian military"
Have you considered putting these on Spotify as podcasts? I often listen to these while doing something else and not needing to leave my phone unlocked would be very nice
Br*ve browser (as in, "not scared")
I replaced Chrome with it, easy transfer of everything.
Stellar mobile phone usage, pretty allright desktop usage experience 👍
@@NathansHVAC That doesn't help. Only paying youtube does.
@andersgrassman6583 worth it though
It's released as a podcast about two days after appearing on YT - but not on Spotify. I get it on Podcast Addict - which is not as easy to use as Spotify, but at least it doesn't have the awful ads. It might be available on other podcast apps as well. I've no idea why Perun doesn't mention this in the YT blurb, as it's a much easier way to listen to his 'videos' - you don't really need to see the slides, and you don't get all the ads, plus you don't have to keep your phone switched on, like you do with YT, so you can walk/garden/work whilst listening. I actually find that I need to watch/listen to most episodes more than once, so I typically listen both on YT and as a podcast, depending on what I'm doing at the time.
@@paulhaynes8045 Is it perun himself uploading or a reuploader? I remember that he had a case of someone impersonating him so I would be sus on accounts he doesn't publicly acknowledge, though reuploading on a podcast app is certainly not that harmful
> Medvedev's statements
Well, I tend to think he's playing a role of crazy drunk warmonger to not look like a threat to Putin and to therefore avoid ending up on board of a plane juggling hand grenades while on cocaine.
I absolutely love Peruns style of presenting, I equally love William Spaniels style, what I enjoy is the casual mention by both of their signature references, like "lines on maps" & "Emutopia & Kiwiland" Both of them do a great job of keeping us engaged and informed. Thanks Perun.
Private Conscriptovitch, Sergeant Bicepski, Colonel Kleptovski ;-)
The man said archeotech. 40K fans, he’s one of us!
Pretty sure that he talked at length in the Q & A vid about formerly being a big time fan of Warhammer, but life and GW prices in Australia pushed him out of the hobby.
Perun, I love being along for the ride. You have the ability to make the most mind numbingly boring topics just fasinating. I've enjoyed every topic you have broadcast even when I didn't think I was interested in them - Well done.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with stalemate, because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦 🛩️
Haha imagine going to war to get some money only to discover staying home and working your stupid factory job would have given you double the money plus you could keep all limbs and life probably.
I’m going to through this out there. For an April fools episode it’d be pretty fun to get an analysis of the standing of the Imperium of Man, from Warhammer 40k.
“A Mussolini style relationship with a lamp post…..”
brilliant. 😂
TBH that is popular joke
I never thought i would get this excited for a powerpoint. On a sunday
I started this episode over again immediately after I finished a first listen. Perun presents me with an enormous amount of information about the world, and this is absolutely brilliant! I run several of the episodes over and over again because Perun’s knowledge of geopolitics is endlessly provocative, and is exactly what the American public-overrun with conspiracy theories-needs urgently!!
That Bit about skynetsky burning down the russian oil infrastructure made me laugh out loud so hard. I had to rewind about a minute to remember what you were even talking about beforehand
Same! F’n brilliant! lol
What point on the timeline was that, I missed it.
@@rodgerhempfing2921 20:43
It is heartening to know that there are 500,000 of my fellow humans who recognize the importance of deep and thoughtful analysis, it gives me some hope for our collective future.
Sadly, we're nowhere near being a majority but we are still out here fighting our own long war. This Perun army.
“Which brings us to the questions of economics” oh yeah, Perun knows why we are all here. 16:33
Nah the Russian MOD took the Stalin quote to heart, "Death solves all problems, no man, no problem."
My sunday afternoon ritual consists of a large cup of coffee, some sweets or cookies, and listening to my favorite Australian PowerPoint man explain defense logistics and economics.
Thank you again mate for some truly top of the line analysis content. To quote Macho Man Randy Savage: "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better!"
Economically, South Africa during the late 1980s might be a good comparison to look at. The border war with Angola and wider sanctions against South Africa meant that the country had to produce most of its materiel domestically. At that time South Africa was the No 1 gold (and diamond?) exporter in the world so they used this to prop up foreign currency reserves. However, eventually the war became so expensive that it partly lead to Namibia gaining independence, and the end of the apartheid system. Inflation was increasing, people were getting poorer on average, and the rational behind fighting has to be reevaluated. The calculus eventually becomes to what extent the Russian population is willing to suffer. In the regions they already are, but what happens when Moscovites and St Petersburgers start suffering and seeing their life's savings evaporate while the grocery store shelves become empty?
and yet again, after so many presentations (since "all bling" and I seriously can't remember how many it is now) The quality still remains brilliant. Thank you so much
Congratulations on 500k subscribers! You've definitely earned it. I really appreciate you sharing the benefit of your experience. Today's vid was exceptional in that regard.
56:24 16k dead (assuming numbers aren’t spoofed) multiplying that by 3 and adding back the dead we get 64k losses killed and wounded in 5 months in one small town
As always your hard work is appreciated Perun.
There's an awful lot of sour grapes about how much Russia lost to take Avdiivka but conspicuously absent criticism for how much Ukraine lost to fail at taking Robotyne
ukraine lost alot of western tanks during that. The issue is that western tanks are irreplaceable. Whats worse? losing 100 t-90s when you can make 30 a month or 10 leopards when you cant make them and only have 30
The best assessments of russian losses in Avdiivka between October 2023 and February 2024 were 16-17,000 killed (cargo 300) and 30,000 wounded (cargo 200). Most of the wounded take large doses of shrapnel, limb loss and a large percentage are maimed for life. So, that's ~45-50,000 casualties to take an all but empty town of ~30,000. In photographically verified equipment loss, the ratio of russian equipment to Ukraine equipment lost ranged from 12 to 1 to 20 to 1 over the same period. Ukrainian losses remained low until the end, when they took much greater personnel casualties. russia is the aggressor in this war, to achieve putin's dubious goals, they need to take all of Ukraine. They can't do it.
@Theaverageazn247 the rate russia is losing armour is unsustainable. Since the beginning of this year, they have lost: 851 tanks; 1988 APVs; and 2250 artillery systems - in 80 days. They've taken around 74k troop casualties in the same period. They can't defend the skies, because they're down 3 A-50s, and large slabs of their air defences - plus, they now need air defences in russia. Based on Perun's estimates of troop losses of 50k/6 mths "pressure figure" before you suffer capability degradation, 80 days into the year, they are 50% over the 6 mth limit. That will cause problems.
Ukraine has done this while suffering "shell starvation". It was the pivotal causal factor that cost them Avdiivka. Beware that wars are not won and lost on maps. The biggest risk russia faces is domestic production; inflation; collapsing oil refinery capacity; and other similar factors. The biggest risk Ukraine faces lies in Washington and especially Miami, home of the orange moron.
@@fretworka3596 That's a rather tendentious recitation of selected facts and guesses. For example, you select Russia's supposed casualties from one battle in which it seems to have done a Pyrrhic job of it--but don't mention Ukrainian casualties (which are concealed by the Ukrainians for some reason). There's certainly no doubt about the disproportionate equipment losses Russia has suffered. Casualty ratios are less clear, since we don't have comparable accuracy in casualty counts on either side.
Russia may discover, when it runs low on armor, as Ukraine did early in the war, that armor is less important in trench warfare that also includes lots of anti-armor infantry weapons, plus rapidly increasing drone capabilities. Russia's has considerable control over its casualty rate: it has held the initiative for 80% of this war.
Ukraine's offensive, when it was replete with shells over the summer, went poorly. It lost Bakhmut despite adequate amounts of shells. You don't know why it lost Avdiivka. It may have been staff level incompetence--they certainly failed in the last days and lost many POWs without good cause.
Russia's first risk is political, the replacement of Putin, after his demise, with someone either less competent at management (not that Putin's great) or perceived by the domestic audience as weak (like the weak-witted Nicholas II). Its second risk is that the Americans ramp up their war industry and also do things like send a thousand M-1 tanks or 100 F-16 fighters, flown by mercenary pilots hired at stratospheric prices from non-NATO countries. Of course, if America had a real President rather than a sleepy old corruptocrat, this sort of thing could have already happened. With Biden, Ukraine has the worst of both worlds: a man who can't make peace since he has no real power within his regime, yet can't support war since he has no real power to control the American-Mexican border and thereby cut a deal with America's patriot party. With the return of Trump, all such options will finally be on the table. Putin and Xi are in Biden's corner, along with all the traitors.
@@fretworka3596Source...trust me bro.
Because perhaps seemingly paradoxically the west relies heavily on propaganda to galvanize public support for sending weapons to Ukraine, and specifically the kind of propaganda that amplifies Ukrainian victories. In Russian not so much, for a long time Russian media tried to avoid talking about the war at all.
I always feel smarter after these videos. Congratulations on 500k!
On the 25th of June, you would be telling your mates that Ukraine is winning the war of attrition during the counter-offensive...
He's Jake Brow lite
Smarter? Is that what getting another earful of “Ukraine is actually winning despite what events have taken place in the last x days since perun’s last video saying the same?”
that's what confirmation bias is. You hear what you want to hear and feel good about yourself, that's how propaganda works.
Ditto @barrychan6308!
Have some facts.... everyday Russia gains 1000 soldiers.... meanwhile in Ukraine they are trying to catch people escaping conscription.
Big congrats Perun for 500K, well deserved mate! And I should also like to say a big thank you to all the people who help Perun out behind the scenes financially and with information and support; it's you lot all working together that allows us lot in the wider Perun community to enjoy a fantastic presentation each week for the low price of watching a few adverts. Big thanks.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with (stalemate) because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦🛩️
I assume that the condition of the systems that the Russians have in storage that have been refurbished are those that were in a better condition to start with.
If they were told to rush to repair the old toss they had, they're not going to start with most damaged systems because they need it as soon as possible.
So I assume the more damaged systems are those they still have in storage and will then later be forced to repair at a greater cost of resources, expertise, and time than those they have previously repaired to send to Ukraine. I assume this would increase the rate of loss as less vehicles are available for the front over time and at an even lower quality.
Good for the Czechs for prioritizing getting ammunition to Ukraine now, and being creative in finding ammunition around the world. And not content to just say, well, in theory, Europe will be producing a lot by the end of the year and hopefully, that will be soon enough. Ukraine needs help now.
America is stalled now by a very narrow gerrymandered Republican majority in the House. But this is temporary. By next January will will have the same President and a very different Congress. But in the meantime, Europe will have to carry the load of supporting Ukraine, unless some breakthrough occurs in the House soon.
Your "TH-cam essays" are excellent and well worth listening too and contemplating over.
The main takeaway I had from this video was "Skynetski"
One day, somebody needs to assemble a "Perun's Best". The best quips, the most hilarious, outrageous metaphors, the driest comments.
OUTSTANDING sir! Love your insight. Russian, Ukrainian or bloody Space Marine. Nice!
Hear that guys? Russia is going to run out of towed artillary.
There is no instance of a nation benefiting from a prolonged war.
- Tsun Tzu, The Art of War. (The loading screen of a video game about prolonged war in which I am currently playing)
What game?
@@PodreyJenkin138 Total War: Shogun 2
France in the first and second coalition? Over several years they nearly doubled their territory whilst fighting most of Europe all at once.
Horrific implications aside, a Russian AI named "Skynetski" would be seriously hilarious.
Skynetski... That's gold class material right there.
"Listening to Medvedev should come with a warning label" BWAHAHAHAHAHAAA
love your content
This is truly the only channel that can get me to jump out of bed to watch their newest content week after week
Interesting that "just in time" logistics work fine for a grocery store or restaurant but not for a military. Why haven't governments figured that out and made that case to their publics and taxpayers with vested interests? The British approach of having dockyards constantly busy with something so that they don't fall idle is looking better and better than low volume a la cart contracts.
And then there's unsocial insecurity....
If a grocery store were located in a war zone, "just in time logistics" wouldn't work for it either.
It is important that the wrong lessons aren't learned from this conflict.
The way nato doctrine works is to avoid these trench slugfests from the get go. If this had been a nato war this conflict would never even have decended into what it is now.
Decisive airpower and long range precision strikes would have severely handicaped the russian ability to dig in like this.
Nato is now trying to support a war it itself would never have had to fight. Which is one of the major problems in supplying ukraine with what it needs.
A nato russo war would look nothing like what we are seeing in ukraine, learning the wrong lessons from it is very dangerous.
@@rogerk6180 The Lancet etc are an absolute changer, and until they are adequately protected in every sphere, supply cannot be expected to work on just-in-time. There's no possible way that between constant disruption and constant accurate targeting of supply depots with no warning, such a system would keep an army. I'm shocked the Russians have managed at all, except I remember they don't care if their troops freeze.
A few notes re artillery:
1) in addition to the 2 new plants in GER and Ukr, Rheinmetall is still increasing production at its existing factories in GER and Spain.
2) In addition to the Czech initiative, GER did buy 120k rounds of 122mm from Bulgaria in January.
They should arrive in late March.
3) By 2025, the new SMArt155 2.0 rounds should be ready.
4) in addition to the 78 Caesars, Ukr will also get more Archer, Zusannas and RCH155 (Boxer AGM) in 2024, plus more PzH and RCH in 2025.
5) Despite lack of ammo, Ukr claims of destroyed RUS guns went from
600 in Dec 23 to
700 in Jan 24 to
900 in Feb 24.
I think this shows nicely the problems caused to RUS of relying on older, shorter ranged guns.
6) There are RUS sources saying that RUS gun numbers in the Ukr theater of ops was actually declining by 600 arti pieces in February.
If you take that at face value, RUS is finally reaching the limits of its capabilities re ramping up its forces from depots.
7) My gut says RUS will run out of barrels in late fall.
My hunch is you are probably wrong on that one.
Looking at the SP guns the West will send doesn't answer how many have been destroyed. I am fairly sure Ukraine doesn't or won't have 78 Cesars operational
People also forget that 155mm comfortably outranges 152mm
In June 2022, the Federal Ministry of Economics granted Rheinmetall authorisation for the delivery of 100 PzH 2000s to Ukraine the supply of which was to begin in 2024, i.e. now. I don't think we will learn everything from the media, as I haven't learnt anything about the status of this delivery anywhere.
Im Juni 2022 erteilte das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium der Firma Rheinmetall die Genehmigung für die Lieferung von 100 PzH 2000 an die Ukraine, deren Zulauf 2024 beginnen sollte, also jetzt. Ich habe nirgendwo etwas über den Stand dieser Lieferung erfahren.
@@michaelneuwirth3414 There was a permit issued, but no contract concluded at the time. Ukr preferred spending the limited aid money on other stuff back then.
A deal over 18 PzH for Ukr, to be financed by GER, was announced late 2023.
Thanks for the tip. I have been following the events since 2022 and this information completely passed me by. Where could you get this information?
Danke für den Hinweis. Ich verfolge das Geschehen seit 2022 und diese Information ist völlig an mir vorübergegangen. Wo haben sie diese Information gefunden?
"... a former catering boss decides to stage a mutiny." Omg dude warn us before you say things like that. I need a new keyboard! And monitor! And stomach lining!
And obviously all these considerations go out the window when NATO stops being cowards and revokes the ban for Ukraine to use Western (cruise) missiles for hitting military targets in Russia. Ending the frankly ridiculous situation that Russia has started a war with six-figure casualties without being noticably bombed. Then Russian supplies will be measured in weeks remaining.
SKYNETSKI 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Thank you Perun for another legendary Perunism
Everyone else is screaming ‘look at me, look at me, look at me’ but you just hunker down and say 'please listen to me for just a sec’.
This is what I feel is the ‘secret sauce’ of this channel.
Perun doesn't really use hyperbole, unless he is making a quip to lighten the load (and the humour is very ozzie which I appreciate more than he can appreciate).
The slide show format is refreshing as I’m pretty bored with videos filled with stock footage, and or a human head glaring at me from out of the screen.A lot of other people feel that they should mimic an American game show host.
I very much appreciate your disdain for catchphrases like ‘game changer’ and you never seem to use that other modern form of punctuation ‘as well’.
You show all your working and references, and never insist that you have the ultimate answer.
In the ol days men marched off to war thinking it was all going to be a great adventure. Thanks to people like yourself and the marvel that is the internet, it’s a bit harder for governments to process an ignorant population into mincemeat.
He doesn't say anything, in the end. And when things go south, as they are, then will, he can say, "Oh, I never said Ukraine was going to win, I said it 'might' win, if it gets enough X, Y, and Z. That is why he never commits in his conclusions. Ever.
@@nickcharles1284 Jeez, your a cranky wee thing ha ha
@@nickcharles1284I mean that's the point. Afaik what he does is analysis.
I know it is easy to forget with everyone in the media throwing wild guess around as if they were the certain truth in order to gain favor with whatever "side" they have chosen but the goal of analysis is not to be able to make predictions that are 100% made to happen.
I find it weird that your criticism of him is based on him doing his job well and not lowering himself to the point others have.
@@marte9346No,he doesn't do analysis. He talks endlessly about weapon's systems, and the maybe's of production and supply. He has no expertise in the following: He doesn't know Russian language, culture or history. Or Russian economy or production ability. He has no deep understanding of economics, European history, the motives of the West, the production capability of the West. He doesn't understand warfare, particularly modern warfare and what is required. Had he this understanding, he would have been able to understand that it was NATO expanding into Ukraine that was a definitive security red line for Russia, that this stance by Russia was coherent and completely valid, and that Russia had not only the economic potential but also the military and technical ability to prosecute its will successfully. When the special operation began commentators experts not aligned with US neoconservatives and elite interests correctly summed up the situation: Russia had the economic, military and industrial capability to win any military conflict on its doorstep. That Ukraine would not only lose, but be destroyed, either as a power or simple outright as a country. These include The Duran, Alexander Mercouris, Col Doublas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Ambassador Chaz Freeman, and a host of others that the MSM simply ignored. Perun failed to see this because 1. he has no expertise as I noted, and 2. very importantly he has taken the West's propaganda as actual fact. He believes what Zelensky has been saying for the last 2 years, and believes the MSM. And his job is to help pump out a product that puts as positive a spin on that propaganda as possible, so fans of Western Intervention can live in a dream world as long as possible, for as many clicks and coin as possible. He feeds delusion, he does no provide pragmatic analysis. Which is why he never commits to a conclusion. It is hard to know if he actually believes what he is saying, or if he is a massive cynic. But what it has sounded like for 2 years is Hitler transmitting from his bunker in 1945; listening to Russian artillery landing on the Chancellery in Berlin, whist ordering long destroyed armies to engage and encircle and destroy the Russian scourge. Thought for the day: during the entire SMO, Russia has only committed about a 4th of its entire military might, and of this quarter only a third has been committed to battle.
@@nickcharles1284 if russias military is so powerfull, why are they delaying the victory for so many years?
44:30 My brother in the Omnissiah, that's the smoothest insertion of a 40k reference yet. Beautiful.
He's used the term "Lostech" before. Gaming roots run deep.
Perun is a fellow soul
West needed to step up and support Ukraine in a way to counter and repel Russia's aggression in these two years, to show resolve and make a statement not allowing that kind of aggression.
Providing protected Ukraine zones by the West and making available to them any weapon system ASAP.. it would be over in 12 months.. Russia can bark all they want about escalation..but they know West has more technology and capability, they know the West would stand while Russia is obliterated, as well as their allies that support their agenda.
Every American voter, every member of Congress, in particular isolationists and (incredible that I am saying this about “American” voters and politicians in 2024) pro-Russians that happen to have American citizenship should be required to see this video amongst others. Elon Musk… he might need to become more educated on the topic as well.
Thankyou Perun, proud to have you representing us! "Bringing the thunder from Downunder!"
I found your remarks about the changes in class and economics within Russia especially insightful and interesting.
Awesome work mate! ❤
(And continuing to think of the civilians caught up in this meatgrinder...)
"Babe im ready and waiting,come to bed"
"Be there in an hour, busy with tertiary grade Defence economic analysis yarns"
I always found it weird how Russia goes on about NATO expansion all the time but their actions have led to NATO expansion and they don't actually seem to give a shit about countries actually joining NATO. They only seem to really care about Ukraine.
Its also strange that they fear Nato will attack them and say the war in Ukraine is therefore self-defence.
And in the next moment they say that Nato is pathetically weak and does not have the ammunition to win a war with russia.
And now they are moving their last remaining air defence systems from Kaliningrad to Ukraine - which I take as a sign that they are not the least afraid of Nato invading their most vulnerable outpost of russia.
They did not have the means to do anything about the NATO expansion once their offensive potential was already engaged in Ukraine. That is why they were kind of tail between their legs about it.
Their adventure in Ukraine was all about pre-empting Ukraines NATO membership and a regime change into a more Russian minded one. They just expected it to be over in a few weeks.
it was hardly a strange fear...misguided but utterly rational from their point of view.... NATO has been Wooing Ukraine since the 90's and after the insurrection that ousted the government, its position of non aligned state melted away...and NATO acceptance which was already well under way at that point became an inevitability..
Which left Russia with the option of either allowing Sevastopol to become a NATO harbor and sit quietly while NATO built its bases along that 1000 mile long border right within spitting distance of Moscow or attempt something reckless to throw a spanner in NATO long term plans before it was to late...which they did in a spectacular and bloody fashion .
I dislike what Russia did immensely ...but I'm not willfully blind to why they did it...
For example if Scotland had actually gained its independence a few years back, and a decade later after a coup that ousted its current government for a hard left replacement it had begun to make inroads to align itself with the CCP to eventually put itself under its security umbrella and open its north sea ports to Chinese warships while planning to move large amounts of Chinese men and materials to the English border (purely for defense of course) as soon as the treaty was ratified.....how would NATO and the Nations directly bordering this potential incursion react?
I mean if the scottish people had chosen this willingly there shouldn't be any issue ...right?
@@nattygsbord
@@johntowers1213 Certainly wouldn't have reacted by invading Scotland and there's no example to suggest otherwise.
I do also suspect USA would be in total bliss and very supportive of Scotland for making sure Europe had stakes in a conflict with China.
It's not weird if you consider that this whole thing is just intended to stay in power. It's gone wrong (they clearly expected it'd be like Crimea/Georgia), but that does not change the underlying objectives. Stay in power.
one thing perun never talks about is that the russian invasion force laggs behind the ukranian in numerical count.
it came in at 300k and grew to 600k-700k while ukranian one was emediately mobilised to 700k the first year then grew to almost 1.4 million
that extreme growth allowed the ukranians to take back some territories like herson and harkov
however this is not a long term strategy to win the war against russia.
Well well, you learn something new every day.
Lol
Yes but what you dont mention is that not even close to 1.4million ukranian soldiers at actively engaged in combat. A huge portion of those soldiers are requiered to guard the border or are in reserve( since the quality of these units isnt high)
"He shot himself", no windows nearby?
Warm weather. Cold drink. Some peanuts.. And just when the day was excellent.
My Sunday shot of Australian powerpoint dopamine has arrived.
And now my Sunday is made❤
“Babe, come here. Another hour long PowerPoint video just dropped!”
I also think that “A Mussolini style relationship with a lamp post.” is one of the best quotes from the video🤣
He was hung at the entrance of a train station from a support beam for rain cover. What relationship did he have with a lamp post?
Russia relying on literal Archeotech like the imperium of man is so fucking wild. Like fuck the parallels are so extreme!
All videos about the Ukraine war right now: "basically, Ukraine can still win this, but the West needs to get their collective head out of their ass like, yesterday"
yea..... i remember they said we would get our production on par with Russia by mid 2023. lol
"Looking at more than lines on a map is needed" - finally someone tackling that stupid meme
Goddamnit Perun, I was taking a drink when you said “Skynetski” and choke, coughed, and snorted scotch through my nose trying to laugh. Funny as hell, but I wasn’t expecting it then.
Update: pavel found an additional 700k rounds
Half of wealth fund gone in two years. Another two years at that rate and ut us gone.
0:00: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine with a focus on military and economic balance.
5:11: ⚔️ Evolution of drone technology and tactics in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia in 2024.
9:46: ⚔️ Analysis of military balance and strategic situation in ongoing conflict.
14:42: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, caution against premature declarations of victory, and the importance of resources and willpower in determining the outcome.
19:47: 🛢️ Complexity of Russian oil prices influenced by various factors including output cuts and geopolitical tensions.
25:01: ⚔️ Russia's rapid increase in war spending poses a significant challenge for Ukraine's allies.
30:10: ⚔️ Challenges and opportunities in Russian military and economic balance in 2024.
35:29: ⚔️ Analysis of military and economic output in Ukraine war, comparing US and Russian munition production.
40:26: ⚔️ Material advantage in production does not guarantee victory if consumption rates are higher.
45:33: ⚔️ Analysis of military equipment depletion and future losses in the Ukraine War.
50:42: 🔍 Transformational changes in Russian artillery park in Ukraine compared to pre-war numbers.
55:33: 💪 Challenges and strengths of Russian and Ukrainian forces in 2024
1:00:39: ⚖️ Assessment of the military balance in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Timestamps by Tammy AI
Between Mussolini's corpse and Kadyrovtsy-staged "combat" Tik-Toks, fascism has been hell on lampposts. // Thanks Perun for another informative and lively presentation.
It is already very concerning that the war continues in WW1 style. It would be million times worse if it ends in WW1 style.
Again ... excellent ... and if you can find the time you could put all of your one-liners in book form and make a mint, just sayin' Love the lamp post line, btw. Are all Aussie's as bloody funny as you, mate? Thanks for the videos but now there are hundreds of thousands Perun junkies. 😀
Sacrifice for the algorithmic gods
I kinda have a hunch that in school your power points were actually a thrill
Lol lines on map guy in shambles
I love the lines on maps disses 😆
"Lines on Maps" works with 'probable' Mathematics. Perun is Analytical Realistic Data, both relative, the latter more likely!
i use probable mathematics in my general grift doctrine.
Thanks Perun. Superb as always, unique and by the far the best survey of the situation and outlook which I have seen. You deserve every one of those 500,000 subscribers - and many more.
So basically this year is Russia's best chance, with them trying to push as hard as possible and gain as many objectives (mobilising men to try and take Kharkive) as possible in the hope that a pro putin America pressures Ukraine into peace deal.
Comment for the robot algorithm 🇺🇸
Saying that defenses will repeatedly fall back to new lines over the next year, each equally hard to take, is really bad analysis.
Isn't adequate defenses not yet being built past Avdiivka the cause of the recent desperate and wasteful holding actions? I guess it won't be too long before we know for sure how serious things are - certainly not a year.
The infantile snark is a constant reminder that Perun remains a gaming youtuber on the literal other side of the world, who is just giving people what they want while the patreon revenue flows. Because, even when warranted, being serious, downbeat or even somewhat realistic garners no new customers.
God forbid a man has humor
Yes, yes, I’m sure Ukraine is going to fall tomorrow and Russia will take over the entire planet in a few months. President Biden will be ritually sacrificed on a planet wide broadcast to start the new year. Minus the sarcasm, we are dealing with quite a lot of land here. Ukraine is big and Russia has a TON to take if it wants to even approach it’s stated war goals. Armies aren’t exactly known for speed at the best of times, and that is especially true in hostile territory.
What a dumb, ridiculous comment 😂
This is what I want for in flight movies on airplanes
41:05 It is more that the Russians are on the offensive, and the offensive now is very materiel demanding. Does not seem that the narrative "Russia is bad at using stuff" is true, but that there is currently no way of taking ground without significant material usage. Just look at the Ukrainian offensives of 2023, which required a large investment of resources and did not succeed. Is Ukraine bad at using stuff?