Commercial Real Estate "Trainwreck" Will Hit Banking System In 2024 | Chris Whalen
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks’ unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:31 Troubles In Commercial Real Estate
07:28 This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck
11:01 Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels)
16:13 VanEck Ad
16:57 Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure
24:52 The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen
30:13 Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects
32:32 Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)
33:49 Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility
39:00 Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize
41:24 Basel III Endgame
45:32 Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale
51:42 Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine"
01:01:04 Private Credit And CLOs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Sadly, banks continue to stumble, mortgage rates is on the rise with higher imports and lower exports, yet the FED is to lessen cost. So, where do we grow and safeguard our money now? something will eventually break if they keep raising interests and quantitative tightening.
ideally, you should consider financial planning to get the best results with your money, notwithstanding economy situation
- Well agreed, I'm quite lucky exposed to finance at early age, started job at 19, purchased first home at 28, got married shortly afterwards to raise kids early. Going forward, got laid-off at 40 amid covid '19 outbreak, immediately consulted with an advisor in order to stay afloat and after subsequent investments, I'm barely 25% short of $1m ballpark goal as of today.
that's incredible! would you mind if I vet your advisor please? started investing in stocks november 2022, but not confident to make the correct investments as of now, seeking professional help to achieve my financial goals
Margaret Johnson Arndt'' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Is it just me or does it look like young Chris Whalen is interviewing current Chris Whalen - get me central casting! Cheers
Thanks Blockworks. Chris is borderline genius. Good job👍 Congratulations getting VanEek as a sponsor.
As directors of our farm business, my wife and I, aged 55 and 52, are starting our retirement savings journey, aiming to rely on rental income. I'd appreciate a live session to discuss online passive income strategies and achieving a comfortable retirement with a target goal of $3million.
Using a 401(k) or IRA is a valuable strategy for retirement planning, providing potential savings growth and tax advantages. While the stock market is promising, expert guidance is essential for effective portfolio management
I completely agree; I am 60 years old, recently retired, and have approximately $1,250,000 in external retirement funds. I am debt free and have very little money in retirement funds compared to the total value of my portfolio over the past three years. To be honest, having a portfolio-advisor for investing is genius!
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
Natalie Marie Tuttle is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
I love this guest, he is so smart, you too Jack
Always great gettin an update from Chris 👍
You won't find many with the depth of knowledge in banking and credit as Chris Whalen possesses. But what made this interview extra special was Jack Farley's ability to ask the sorts of questions that pulled such brilliant responses from Whalen. The result? A master class across several contemporary topics in the field.
0:34 Chris suddenly realizes he just went through a wormhole, and is being interviewed by himself from 20 years ago. Happy NY 2004!
love it when Jack interviews Chris, always makes for a great episode
I work for a company located in downtown Cincinnati. I have never lived in Cincinnati, and I was hired as a remote employee. I have no intention of relocating for a job. I am making them fire me. It’s a stand off right now between these corporations and the remote workers. I have three years living expenses in the bank right now and no debt. My cost of living is very low and I own my house outright. They have no power over me.
You used your head buy being debt- free and saved some money ! I'm in the same position and banks or mortgage companies can not hurt me ! Stress-free is great, isn't it ?
Good for you. I hear that is a RISING trend. Notice how the music has changed. Post Covid 2021, they were promoting the new business/work model ie remote working from home as a net benefit to society: reducing commuting aka petro burning to save the globe, work-life balance happier employees, companies reduce operating cost lowering office lease needs,etc. Now they want people to return back to the office slog. It's insane.
Good summary fellas. Thank you. I am a participant in the commercial real estate industry and can tell you that multifamily rents and occupancies have been headed down for the past few months. Our luxury properties are the hardest hit, but our affordable properties have tenants who are struggling to balance inflation and paying the rent. It’s going to continue for at least another year imo.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Michelle Stewart
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Michelle Stewart support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams.
Stewart's expertise in customizing investment portfolios based on changing market conditions and personal risk profiles is exceptional. It's not a one-size-fits-all approach, which is crucial in crypto investing.
What impresses me most about Michelle Stewart is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
Isn't that the same Mrs Michelle Stewart that my neighbours are talking about, she has to be a perfect expert for people to talk about her so well
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
You keep bringing so much excellent interviews jack! Love your stuff. Been liking your interviews since the RV days. Glad to see you are doing well. Best regards and all the good. Cheers.
Quite complete, well thought out interview. Very relevant content and accurate. Outstanding job.
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you
Aileen Gertrude Tippy' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
So proud to have started my macro journey with blockworks in 22. Man you guys put out such consistent top tier content it's mind blowing. Love Jack's passion for finance and love the rest of the blockworks teams passion for decentralized finance. Thanks again guys, your interviews have radically changed the way i perceive the world. THANK YOU
awww...its a father and son podcast!
Love Chris Whalen videos! keep them coming.
I love when Whalen's on. Great questions, Jack!
2nd interview I've seen with Chris. Really great explainer.
Glad to get a fresh view from Mr Whalen. Chris is among the Forward Guidance Superstars imho.
Chris Whalen pretty insightful and level headed
Thanks guys!!
Great sharing Chris Walen !
Excellent content!!
Thanks, good interview
I'm a simple man - I see Chris Whalen, I click the like button
You really are simple
Great bookshelf.
I do not understand how a bank can sell a Fannie 3pc from when at 98 cents and buy a new one at 6pc.
Who is the buyer that takes on a lower coupon loan, instead of the higher yielding paper? Someone is making the mistake, someone else is getting out of. Similar to when the bank known for taking both sides of a trade sold "shit" in 2007 while they were running away from the business they had been pumping before.
Excellent explanation on the differences between the US and European capital markets. Many simplistically attribute Europe's lack of job growth and wealth creation to high taxes and "socialism" but the depth of US capital markets really sets us apart from every major economy, even China's when they were growing at 10% YOY.
Thanks for having your granddad on Jack, great insights 👌
wow i love chris whalen
Great info! This feels Like watching a father and son talk. Same hairline and similar glasses. 😮🙂
So the expert Chris Whalen, said he ownes "New York Commuity Bank". The stock dropped 38% on 1-31-24. Nice Call Chris.
I remembered that.
Yeah that must have hurt. And today tack on another 10.6% drop
I promise you he’s guessing too.
AI is about to replace mortal guessers, starting with the financial casino. 8 billion cheers for the top-down funny-money takedown. If we're a lucky species, superhuman intelligence may reset the game, admonish us about rewarding greed, and bow out for higher endeavors.
I live in the netherlands and our rulers also claim they want to promote home ownership. That's how we ended up with 115% loan to value mortgages in 2007
Something about the "bank runs are so easy nowadays because people have cell phones" line doesn't sit right with me. SVB didn't fail as the result of some sort of popular protest. big money walked away from the bank first, not average joe.
I think you're reading that into what he was saying. If memory serves, it was the rich guys moving tons of money on their phones that triggered the collapse. That was not something even the rich could do en masse before the advent of apps.
May I ask who is "Big money" or what groups withdrew money and why?thanks
SVB Bank, serviced the Santa Clara Tech Industry. There was a significant run on the bank, by the Sana Clara Tech industry that caused SVB insolvency.
@@Lee-vb4vh SVB Bank, serviced the Santa Clara Tech Industry. There was a significant run on the bank, by the Sana Clara Tech industry that caused SVB insolvency.
@@user-bh6pq9oj9l ok thank you for interesting info. Continued blessings
Wow.. CW has completely shifted his “Fed interest rate policy” position.. Not too long ago saying more or less the Fed NEEDS TO CUT RATES. To today, the Fed has no reason to move on rates quickly..!!
21:25 "Tough to establish an objective mechanism for (risk management)"
> "Oh no. I'll volunteer" - "Receivers at the FDIC, first question they ask you is 'do you understand your ability to reject contracts?' That's the key question."
- How does that help people at Silicon Valley Bank where they just loaded up on long term US treasuries and lost client deposits when account yields started to rise?
"QT will end before the first rate cut". I very much doubt that. They might start tapering it down, but outright end it by June? No way.
We’ve been calling this for over a year.
*26:30 Guest says "There's an air of unreality in American politics today that we can somehow just pretend to ignore the treasury situation."
The host is one of the best I know of right now. He gets serious guests and asks really informed questions.
I'd love to see more discussion of income inequality as a market risk and demographic trend. Seems under discussed.
Also, it feels like we are in a fiscal and monetary environment that includes both tightening and stimulus at the same time in different parts of the system. Is that new and/or important?
Ive seen a movie about this guy and Whalen Industries, turns out he travels to space to track down a Xenomorph
A single income or relying on government support should not be every employee's dream or mindset, but having an investment plan by purchasing good stocks as income support and retirement is the best option one could take in life. economy of the country (America), which is unfortunately about to crash. According to the statistics of so many intermediaries and observations, the government does not pay attention to its economy and its citizens, but is investing in Upcoming Election and wars (Ukraine and Israel).
The economy of the country (America), which is unfortunately about to crash according to the statistics of so many intermediaries and observations, China and most countries in Europe that are not involved in war and have good growth in their economy, giving their citizens a better life and support in their country.
Having an investment plan by purchasing good stocks as income support and retirement is the best option one could take in life
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I'm 54 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement.
@@BelindaGomez-ul2yn I can easily ask you to look up for Linda Sue Baier to help you grow your finance
That's nice to hear about her, looking for a professional financial analyst or advisor can certainly add value by offering tailored advice, portfolio diversification, risk management, and timely insights. Linda Sue Baier is an expert that can potentially speed up wealth creation and navigate market complexities, She's the best choice to make for investor as she gives a Favorable Market Stocks to produce high investment yields and ROI
28:20 the Fed needs to get better at insider trading too.
No BAILOUTS!! No BAILOUTS!! No BAILOUTS!!! No Ca$h 4 Trash!
No Loan' 4 Trash !!!
Noooo BAILOUTS!!
I’m sorry but who is “Paul”? Does he mean Jack?
no fallout in any earnings from China's troubles?
These guys got the 2 for 1 deal at the eyeglasses store
Thie issue with MBS and duration is a repeat of the mid 1980s S&L crisis, when FSLIC offered better capital treatnent to MBS (CMOs) and S&Ls bought the long traunches without understanding duration. Thats when they came out with the quarterly Schedule H to measure asset/liability mismatch in yield and duration.
Smart dude, but way too pro-intervention by the FED. So sad
When Jamie Diamond sells off 1 1/2 million dollars of Chase bank stock ,what does that tell you ????
I work in foreclosures. FHA. I've never had this many come in and they keep coming. Top dawgs from Cali flew to east coast to see about expansion because they say triple the amount is coming.
This being residential or commerical?
Depends which side you are on.
For buyers it is an opportunity market, while sellers have to face the music.
title is a bit misleading. He says the effects will be very slow (multiple years of low pain)
31:50 QT to end in jun
Chirs is the same who said new york community bank 🏦 was a buy. Lol look how that turned out. 😅
And it dropped another 10.6% today, lol
@@brosb4hoes755 just shows these analyst don't know anything 😒
Consumers are hurting in rent, utilities, and/or variable rates.
Chris Whalen is absolutely right about “quality” of jobs is crap, multiple part-time no benefits hurting American families.
A long term 4th turning event long anticipated, and a civilization completely unprepared by incompetent business and government more interested in stripping all the value out.
Holly sh..! Not even the half of it and already 6 commercial interruptions. No way! Bye.
Rate of spending equals higher priced business loans passed on inflation forced consumer spending. Consumer debt defaults are going to increase.
Home Mortgage forbearance technicalities are affecting home owners
The consumers don't care, yet there is still a SYSTEMIC RISK that will affect consumers greatly. Banks will stop lending, credit will retract, companies will start laying off thousands, home & car loans will default, etc etc etc.
Dude just interviewed his future self
Just a couple of smart dudes talking about smart dude stuff. 👍
Tell 100 things and ONE thing will happen and than let everyone call you "expert"
I don't understand why people own commerical REITS, and some people like Jim Cramer keep hyping them.
Push the Red button and initiate ZirpNbrrrr.....enough said
We're becoming a servicer economy. Work from home In an essence. But, only the FED and Treasury can save us. Businesses can sustain..CoExist!!
Chris - they shouldn't dignify crypto by regulating it- Whalen
the fed should not even be in markets - thats the root of the problem - earn an honest return
Bad = Not good
The “Put-In or PUTIN factor hopefully only Limited to Office Buildings that can’t be redeveloped to residential or Retail-Apartments if that market is still undersupplied like it is in Austrália? The PUTIN factor always a problem.
He's the one likes NYCB
Fed will eventually QE by buying all Commercial Property.
Kept $105k in CIT Bank HYSA at 5.05% but i now plan to invest in the stock market. What are your thoughts on that? What stocks should I look out for as a newbie to safely grow my money?
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie its advisable you work with a financial advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self-managing my portfolio but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $250k portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 25%.
Impressive! How can I contact this advisor? My portfolio has underperformed, and I need guidance.
I don't comfortably throw recommendations around on the internet, but I've been working with 'Aileen Gertrude Tippy'. God, she's brilliant! I'm sure there are others who are good.
Chris on the wrong side of the trade Whelan
If a lot of these empty commercial properties are rezoned and retrofitted for residential, home prices will slip. I think that's a good thing. Houses are ment for people to buy and live in, not be an investement and left empty waiting for some idot to come buy it at a way overinflated price.
You cannot retrofit an office building into condos cost-efficiently. Too many structural, engineering and regulation hurdles to overcome. There are many detailed articles on the matter. It'd be cheaper to buldozzer them to the ground and build up from scratch.
And pay those upity builders $250 a square? I doubt that. @@HectorYague
Is Jack Chris's son?
I don't trust former FED employees when during their interviews about the banking system they don't mention the EURODOLLAR system...
Great video … problem is that there’s a few people that Eva would have the patience to watch it, or understand what is being said.
Most people don’t care or call it a conspiracy … sigh
Mr, Whalen, do you still think that Suisse went under because of mismanagement? I think a carecter like you should know better!
Does he have fake books on his top left shelf?
Broken clock is right twice a day, people been calling this real estate crisis for 2 years now...
I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever,hoping to retire next year.. Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life
That's awesome!!! I know nothing about investment and I'm keen on getting started. What are the strategies?
The first step in every successful investment is to establish your goals and risk tolerance, a task best undertaken with the assistance of a financial advisor with extensive financial market knowledge like Fergus Waylen
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing him been mentioned here also Didn't know he has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with him and it has been super
YES!!! That's exactly his name (Fergus Waylen) so many people have recommended highly about him and am just starting with him from Brisbane Australia
I don't want to put a figure to how much i've made doing that but let's just say it's more than enough to make trading worthwhile. And when i say worthwhile, i mean it.
Is this what Michael Burry is counting on? Is this why he's shorting the markets?
Crypto is simply nothing, what they will talking about....people buying nothing??
Another thread of people lying about how much money they have.
Stop treating buildings like financial assets. They are PP&E on a balance sheet used to produce and sell space. Put bitcoin on the operating entity’s balance sheet and transform the value.
This guy is clueless. Residential real estate is not selling. Not like it was.
Did Chris ever apologize for acting like an asshat when he left mid-interview a few appearances back? That was so awkward.
A Jack Farley interview?
@@mikerinaldi7170 Yes. It was a forward guidance interview with Chris and another guest. I believe the gentleman’s name was Randy, can’t remember his last name. Check it out if you can find it.
The side by side shot is a little... ummm...
2 big foreheads, 2 pair of glasses, 2 mouths with downturned edges, 2 bookshelves in the backgrounds...
You can't tell me that nobody else noticed...
Much commercial real estate should be converted to residential condos for purchase. BINGO! But that won't happen because it would solve a problem.
Useless analyst
This guy looks like he's on coke and he recommended ppl to buy NYCB months early.