Expected Value in Poker Explained - Calculate EV Quickly
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 มิ.ย. 2024
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That was flippin crazy - I typed out the entire slide show and word for word - This short video took me 3-4 hours to complete with taking brakes to rest my head on that formula you used - the first one wasn't to hard but the second one was crazy. But I managed to figure out both answers and how you got them. I didn't care about the % you used because I knew it was just an explanation video about how to calculate EV. The only thing I can recommend is changing the formula to a more simpler one. It uses multiplication and addition and for the addition you have to subtract. And how you got that huge number which i figured out by adding the 6400 to the 26000. It was crazy math trying to figure it out but I managed to do it. But it was a great video and now I have a better understanding of calculating EV to learn how to study better using solvers. I just need to practice every day for at least a few hand histories at a time. So I can get a rough idea to try to be able to do it on the spot in touch decisions. Even if I am not bang on but close to being right is good enough to make my poker game edge just a bit better - Baby steps - Learning a tiny bit at a time over a long period of time goes a long way! I subscribed to the channel and look forward to learning more - now off to learn from another EV site to make sure I have all the information I can get on the subject and compile them all together to create one EV strategy with all the trimmings that more players have to offer :)
that's the spirit, Jason! You're gonna go far with this attitude - everything takes practice but if you are willing to consistently put in the work, you can master anything.
EV is a super useful concept for making decisions in life and you can best remember it as "the sum of all outcomes multiplied by their probalities" or "an average expected outcome".
Best of luck at the tables!
great video. thank you
thanks - happy to help!
Hey Goku, did you consider the opportunity lost when checking the river? The calculations are assuming he will go all-in with all of his better hands, however some combos can check back the river, cause the river does bring a flush and straight that some of opponents will decide to check back their weaker two pair combos.
good point Marvin - no I did not take into consideration opportunity lost by when checking the river.
You are correct in thinking there are some combos in villain's range which we are ahead of and would call our bet and might check behind.
The point of this video was to explain the concept of EV on an easy example so I didn't want to make it any more complex than needed. Good catch, though, and good thinking!
thanks :)
my pleasure seven!
How do you estimate his range to be: 1) 48% JX and TX, 2) 38% Straight and flush draws, 3) 14% JT, 55? Thanks!
that's a great question BTD - usually you would use a tool like flopzilla combined with your knowledge of your opponent's play to narrow down their range and illustrate what it is combined of - but in this example I just used some probable estimations from my head as their main purpose was to teach you how to calculate EV
Eu entendo a parte da moeda, mas no poker ainda fico na duvida. Se puder esclarecer.
Ex: Se eu aposto 10 na moeda e ganho um pote de 25 caso acerte, a jogada é mais EV porque eu ganho mais do que o percentual de aposta. Mas isso faz sentido apenas se todas as apostas forem nesse valor.
Se eu apostei 10 na coroa, e o pote valia 25, e eu perdi; Se continuar apostando com o pote valendo sempre 25 vai ser mais EV.
Mas e se na próxima jogada o pote é de 5 reais? Se eu apostar 2 reais, teoricamente a jogada é mais EV, mas eu vou precisar ganhar 10 jogadas desta pra recuperar o que perdi no pote anterior de 25. E a cada 10 eu vou ganhar apenas 5.
E no poker isso acontece muito, os potes nunca tem o mesmo valor.
Obrigado pelo seu comentário, respondi em inglês ao seu segundo comentário :)
I understand the coin part, but in poker I'm still in doubt. If you can clarify.
Ex: If I bet 10 on the coin and win a pot of 25 if I get it right, the move is more EV because I win more than the bet percentage. But that makes sense only if all bets are on that amount.
If I bet 10 on the crown, and the pot was worth 25, and I lost; If you keep betting with the pot always worth 25 it will be more EV.
But what if in the next play the pot is 5 reais? If I bet 2 reais, theoretically the move is more EV, but I will need to win 10 moves of this to recover what I lost in the previous pot of 25. And for every 10 I will win only 5.
And in poker it happens a lot, the pots never have the same value.
thanks for your comment Athlecqs RD - you are correct in saying in poker every decision will have a different EV because the POT will be different and the circumstances will be different and thus you have to treat every decision as a seperate event.
You calculate EV whenever it can help you make a more accurate decision. You never know how big or small the next pot will be. What you need to focus on is making EV+ decisions so decisions which have a positive expected value, and avoid making EV- decisions so ones with negative EV. And what is maybe important to mention, you should only be playing big pots with big hands so that you are actually a big favourite to win.
If you focus on that, you will surely become a better poker player and in the long run you will win money.
If you beat his range in 75% without betting, why betting all in. Just give him the décision and if he is in 80/20 %of all in wait for his decision it s more profitable. One more thing if you bet you have an additionnal fold equity EV+
yes, in the highlighted example it's better to check-call. Fold equity is not considered to make it simple, but you are right- if the opponent folds any of the hands that beat you, then your EV of betting increases.
6:32 In this part I didn't understand, if I'm ahead 25% of the time, why between the parenthesis there are 80 and 20% chances of "I don't know what" ?
6:18 It's because in this particular scenario the villain shoves all-in with 80% of his bluffs and 20% of the time he gives up and checks back - does that make sense?
@@GokuPoker Alright, I guess I'm not smart enough for these calculations, but I'll keep trying
Don't worry about it Fagner - I take it these are all new concepts for you and you're only just learning them - don't be too hard on yourself, this stuff will become second nature to you with practice ;)
@@GokuPoker is this right? If I bet all-in 25% of times opponent will fold - if I check here, for the 25% of hands I have him beat, he will try to bluff 80% and just check 20%, thus putting more money into the pot that I'll then call, hence the pot gets bigger this way. Thx!
yes, that is correct
I understand pot odds but this is so confusing. If you are multi tabling online who has the time to do this mentally? It's very confusing.
it comes with practice - first you have to think consciously about it and calculate it in your head but once you play enough hands, it becomes second nature and you no longer think about it but rather play spots by intuition, especially if you are multitabling.
How does anyone do this in real life? I don’t know anyone that can do that kind of math in their head fast enough to actually use it at the table
it's only difficult at the beginning - with practice you can quickly get a good feeling of where you're at. You're not actually calculating precise numbers, you're rather operating on best estimates and with practice these simply get better and better
@@GokuPoker So you're saying that you're able to do this math fast enough at the table to use it? how many hours of practice did that take for you?
correct, I don't know how many hours it takes, but it's definitely a skill you get better at with every iteration. You're not doing complex calculations - you're rather making best guess estimates and mentally correcting them after the hand is over. With enough practice you don't even think about it and you can just instantly know approximately where you're at and when you try to calculate the exact numbers you find out your estimation is pretty close
Well very cool. Cant wait to start
@@justinarmer3918 good luck and have fun ;)
Confusing.
I recommend watching the video as many times as needed to understand the concept of EV - it's a vital concept in poker but also in many other avenues of life. Also, if you have any questions, I'll be happy to answer them :)