Great presentation. I found George's prior analysis of the US going into Vietnam, to show Nato that the had their back, as a great explanation. I was confused about George's comments regarding drawing away from old structures like Nato. I was under the impression that the US tried isolationism prior to WW1, and again WW2, and that they were always drawn into the big wars anyway. With Nato, they gave up isolationism in order to be on the front lines, so they could control the situation from the start. Because the US would be drawn into any WW3 anyway. They might as well just admit that and be involved to begin with. Hence the token forces in the Baltics and other Eastern Euro countries. Trump pushing the 2% military expenditure is Trump, and he won't be president forever. The next Prez will likely alter the deal again. I'd also think that if the US gets into a shooting war with China, they will invoke article 5, as they did on 9-11/ Afghanistan. Europe will be drawn in, despite George saying they might stay out. Even a token navy from France, if it is hit by China, will draw France in as it will have to declare war against China, as an example. George always gives a great overview, even if you might disagree with some of his ideas. Human nature as it is, the future will closely resemble the past. Not much has changed since the Roman Empire, which was emphasized by George.
The last segment on how Washington can be completely paralyzed but the trains keep running on time, is so true. We still basically inhabit the country Tocqueville described. It’s called self governance and we of the U.S. are pros at it. I also think that we just need to go back to a Federalist system decentralize Washington (I think this is the one benefit of Trump) and let the states and local governments govern. Washington should be reserved for foreign policy only. I think all else the states could handle. BTW, I love the system as it is. Much better for everyone that the separation of powers slows down Washington bureaucrats than making it easier for a central authority to seize all power within it. This is why I truly don’t believe Hitler could’ve carried out his plans here. He would’ve been stopped before the first gas chamber could’ve been built. It’s just too hard for a dictator to have any success in the U.S. Just look to California or Texas as an example. I’m thankful everyday of the genius and prescience of our Founders.
Kaylee Gardner its good to divide power between institutions and states when the things going well but its complete shit show and chaos at first serious problem . you might wanna look at india .. they cant do any reform exactly for this reason ..
narhankuul The American system is designed to be ineffective but flexible. Half the Founders wanted a strong central government because under the old Articles of Confederation, the government was helpless in a crisis. The other half didn't trust a strong central government because they had just spent twenty years fighting one. The compromise was separation of powers. That made it hard to get things done, so the government would be too busy to interfere in people's lives, but in an emergency, when everyone agreed about something, the government can do a lot very fast...like the first couple of weeks after 911.
The remarkable thing about the Middle East is how Israel (a very important player and a regional power) has managed effortlessly, it seems, to attract no attention while quietly and efficiently doing its job (which job btw seems to be the only one that matters in the Mideast). All other Mideast players are dogs with different fleas and their efforts cannot be taken seriously. Compared to the Israelis they look like amateurs. Hats off to the Israelis; they have much to teach us on the topic of effective management in geopolitics.
Look up Christopher Bollyn, The USS Liberty attack, Lavon Affair, Apollo Affair, Jonathon Pollard on youtube, i think these subjects will show you how effective Israel is
A thought on interdependence: linking nations together doesn't create interdependence - the entities you need to link together are all the actors who don't want war, linked more closely to the actors who do want war, and can make war. It is not that two separate nations are insufficiently invested in each other, it is that DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY are insufficiently invested in each other. No matter how this war in Ukraine shakes out, the unambiguous losers are the MILLIONS OF POOR PEOPLE whose lives were destroyed on both sides, by FORCIBLE CONSCRIPTION, and war-making - which was a CHOICE on the part of the political class - RATHER THAN NEGOTIATE - and I submit that it is because the political class in most nations IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEPENDENT on the well-being of their own citizens, and the poor people around the world in general. And that's fine - that is the human condition - we be like that - but - stop lying. Stop pretending you are better than you are. THAT is what pisses me off.
This is a man who predicted that America was going to invade North Korea before last Christmas, he actually said it was certain, how could anyone take him seriously , he is all talk without substance .
You did not listen, George is a messenger and a tool first of all - serving a very specific interest group -, secondly he is a good analyst who never speaks about the real motives/money oligarchs who are pulling the ropes.
This sounds like everyone against everyone. In end everyone will lose. And some will get away they think just because they are more far away. But I doubt this will work out at all. Probably unexpected winners will occur.
Friedman needs a new job; forecasting geopolitics is not his thing. Frankly I'm better than him at predicting outcomes from political situations... I don't think Friedman fully understands how America really works. The situation that brought America the vast prosperity after all its competition was bombed to hell is over; and when America goes down to its acutal TRUE economic size, the country will implode with repercussions nobody can predict. And that moment is currently sliding to its epic climax; Trump is just a footnote to what's coming.
Alex P: I disagree. The US has bloated government, as does so much of other countries. Trump is enabling the private sector, reducing taxes and regulations, and putting the country on a better footing to deal with government overreach.
@Alex P. USA get rich because of geography, natural resources, vast empty fields of grass easy to cultivate. USA took from a world best people determined to get rich, that took technology and make it profitable. It was before those horrible wars. You are right that other economies was basically in ruins. But you are wrong about that US economy getting smaller the other get bigger. If US play it right climax will never happen for a long time. And do you believe that climax will pass without a war, few wars, one f... epic war.
![เจ็บที่ยังฮัก - ม่อน วรวิทย์ [ Official Mv ] จอนนี่มิวสิค](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/KALIGSRSjFs/mqdefault.jpg)
Glad to see the podcast is back
hiatus over!
by his own measures George must be the powerful one because I'm constantly obsessing about getting his thoughts on.... anything.
Haha
Great presentation. I found George's prior analysis of the US going into Vietnam, to show Nato that the had their back, as a great explanation. I was confused about George's comments regarding drawing away from old structures like Nato. I was under the impression that the US tried isolationism prior to WW1, and again WW2, and that they were always drawn into the big wars anyway. With Nato, they gave up isolationism in order to be on the front lines, so they could control the situation from the start. Because the US would be drawn into any WW3 anyway. They might as well just admit that and be involved to begin with. Hence the token forces in the Baltics and other Eastern Euro countries. Trump pushing the 2% military expenditure is Trump, and he won't be president forever. The next Prez will likely alter the deal again. I'd also think that if the US gets into a shooting war with China, they will invoke article 5, as they did on 9-11/ Afghanistan. Europe will be drawn in, despite George saying they might stay out. Even a token navy from France, if it is hit by China, will draw France in as it will have to declare war against China, as an example. George always gives a great overview, even if you might disagree with some of his ideas. Human nature as it is, the future will closely resemble the past. Not much has changed since the Roman Empire, which was emphasized by George.
The last segment on how Washington can be completely paralyzed but the trains keep running on time, is so true. We still basically inhabit the country Tocqueville described. It’s called self governance and we of the U.S. are pros at it. I also think that we just need to go back to a Federalist system decentralize Washington (I think this is the one benefit of Trump) and let the states and local governments govern. Washington should be reserved for foreign policy only. I think all else the states could handle. BTW, I love the system as it is. Much better for everyone that the separation of powers slows down Washington bureaucrats than making it easier for a central authority to seize all power within it. This is why I truly don’t believe Hitler could’ve carried out his plans here. He would’ve been stopped before the first gas chamber could’ve been built. It’s just too hard for a dictator to have any success in the U.S. Just look to California or Texas as an example. I’m thankful everyday of the genius and prescience of our Founders.
The idea of it that floats in our popular consciousness, the meaning is obvious.
Kaylee Gardner its good to divide power between institutions and states when the things going well but its complete shit show and chaos at first serious problem . you might wanna look at india .. they cant do any reform exactly for this reason ..
+narhankuul, not the same. India hasn't been independent for very long and his too many people, especially poor people.
narhankuul The American system is designed to be ineffective but flexible. Half the Founders wanted a strong central government because under the old Articles of Confederation, the government was helpless in a crisis. The other half didn't trust a strong central government because they had just spent twenty years fighting one. The compromise was separation of powers. That made it hard to get things done, so the government would be too busy to interfere in people's lives, but in an emergency, when everyone agreed about something, the government can do a lot very fast...like the first couple of weeks after 911.
@@narhankuul Indian has problems because they are Indian. Everything ran relatively smoothly under the Raj.
The remarkable thing about the Middle East is how Israel (a very important player and a regional power) has managed effortlessly, it seems, to attract no attention while quietly and efficiently doing its job (which job btw seems to be the only one that matters in the Mideast). All other Mideast players are dogs with different fleas and their efforts cannot be taken seriously. Compared to the Israelis they look like amateurs. Hats off to the Israelis; they have much to teach us on the topic of effective management in geopolitics.
Look up Christopher Bollyn, The USS Liberty attack, Lavon Affair, Apollo Affair, Jonathon Pollard on youtube, i think these subjects will show you how effective Israel is
It's very convenient that all this chaos is beneficial to Israel.
Israel is such a superpower which has both Russia and the USA at her disposal.
You would really need video and better audio quality (I am hearing echo?).
Another masterclass
A thought on interdependence: linking nations together doesn't create interdependence - the entities you need to link together are all the actors who don't want war, linked more closely to the actors who do want war, and can make war. It is not that two separate nations are insufficiently invested in each other, it is that DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY are insufficiently invested in each other. No matter how this war in Ukraine shakes out, the unambiguous losers are the MILLIONS OF POOR PEOPLE whose lives were destroyed on both sides, by FORCIBLE CONSCRIPTION, and war-making - which was a CHOICE on the part of the political class - RATHER THAN NEGOTIATE - and I submit that it is because the political class in most nations IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEPENDENT on the well-being of their own citizens, and the poor people around the world in general.
And that's fine - that is the human condition - we be like that - but - stop lying. Stop pretending you are better than you are. THAT is what pisses me off.
This is a man who predicted that America was going to invade North Korea before last Christmas, he actually said it was certain, how could anyone take him seriously , he is all talk without substance .
You did not listen, George is a messenger and a tool first of all - serving a very specific interest group -, secondly he is a good analyst who never speaks about the real motives/money oligarchs who are pulling the ropes.
This sounds like everyone against everyone. In end everyone will lose. And some will get away they think just because they are more far away. But I doubt this will work out at all. Probably unexpected winners will occur.
You have to invest and learn better audio recording techniques. An interesting talk but you really have to stop everything else to listen to it.
1968 was 10 times worse than it is today.
Also: how bad is the societal divide in the United States?
where was this part? there is no divide ,only exxon,conoco,chevron,texaco,citybank,tacobell
it was at the end!
Jacob Shapiro oh yeah there was short talk about the system and nixon,vietnam..my bad
Israel and Saudi hahahahahah
Strange bedfellows.
Freedman said that Europe invented humanity such as Hitler, Biby
Friedman needs a new job; forecasting geopolitics is not his thing. Frankly I'm better than him at predicting outcomes from political situations... I don't think Friedman fully understands how America really works. The situation that brought America the vast prosperity after all its competition was bombed to hell is over; and when America goes down to its acutal TRUE economic size, the country will implode with repercussions nobody can predict. And that moment is currently sliding to its epic climax; Trump is just a footnote to what's coming.
Alex P: I disagree. The US has bloated government, as does so much of other countries. Trump is enabling the private sector, reducing taxes and regulations, and putting the country on a better footing to deal with government overreach.
And what's your geopolitical company?
@Alex P.
USA get rich because of geography, natural resources, vast empty fields of grass easy to cultivate. USA took from a world best people determined to get rich, that took technology and make it profitable. It was before those horrible wars.
You are right that other economies was basically in ruins. But you are wrong about that US economy getting smaller the other get bigger.
If US play it right climax will never happen for a long time. And do you believe that climax will pass without a war, few wars, one f... epic war.