It's a very good discussion. I plan to watch it again. Mostly I agree with Mr. Luttwak's arguments. But no one can stay in the fight a little situation. When China moves on something, and they definitely move on something in the near future, many things actually, the US can not hold itself to intervene. This act can change the whole chemistry of this future collusion. Therefore this discussion is good to hear but hard to realize. Best regards Michael. Stay healthy.
Fascinating, but I think he is wrong on the following economic issues: 1. America isn't great because it's diverse. It's diverse because its greatness attracts immigration from all over the world, and its greatness is caused by freedom which provides opportunity. That freedom has been eroding at an accelerated rate. Would the same exact people really fare worse at developing a nuke if they all happened to speak the same language? Was diversity what allowed the US to develop the bomb first, or putting together the greatest minds regardless of nationality, language, and culture? Would a bunch of diverse mediocrites really reach the bomb ahead of a bunch of homogeneous geniuses? 2. The New Deal didn't just not work. It made the Great Depression worse and caused it to last longer. Participation in WW2 didn't cause the Great Depression to end, since fighting a war is taking resources out of the economy and burning them. It was the destruction of Europe's industry that allowed America's untouched industry to massively increase exports. 3. The US has a huge national debt that just keeps increasing over time, and eventually this will lead to economic meltdown. Mr. Luttwak's belief in America's security seems like exactly the kind of thing he himself is warning about in the very same talk.
His book holds up well. Great state Autism is what brings down great powers, German empire, etc.. Its an inherent structural problem that big countries typically have.
A great discussion with Mr Luttwak! Wish you had time to touch on Taiwan & main differences between Germany & China, (I can think of several) & how those difference might impact his views & what we should watch for I recently wrote about China twitter.com/Ronald_Spitzer/status/1266052321038958593?s=20
09:15 - 11:00 Early prediction: [China wouldn’t be able to stop itself ...] “and they would repeat everything the Germans did, including the fact that as a land power ... they’d try to become a naval power”. 13:08 “Strategy is stronger than politics.” 16:40 - 17:22 “The logic of strategy is rooted in a fundamental physiological fact, which is that _Homo sapiens_ doesn’t like to get bugged around ... Moreover, if you attack a bunch of them, they coalesce together against them [the attacker].” 18:20 - 19:05 “The Chinese have delusions of adequacy in regard to the realm of strategy.” 19:30 “They used all the advanced techniques of what they call ‘post-modern political warfare’ in Hong Kong and Taiwan [but turned these places more against them].” 24:12 - 25:30 “[Currently,] The Chinese line should be that Trump is a maniac, ..., we are reasonable, instead ... in the same week they picked up quarrels with Vietnam, India, Australia and Sweden.” 25:45 - 26:25 “The Chinese ambassador in Paris sends no report, and if he does, nobody reads them. He sits in Paris and makes speeches.” 35:10 [Role of Human Agency:] “Human Agency intervened to understand the logic of strategy and to obey its instructions.” (like Bush Sr. did in the first Iraq War) 37:55 - 39:40 “All victories if continued long enough become defeats. War become peace, peace becomes war. ... If you ever feel really secure, watch out!” 46:40 “Xi Jinping has no knowledge of the outside world whatsoever.” 48:40 - 49:04 “Xi Jinping antagonized a lot of people in the Communist Party with his anti-corruption campaign. ... Xi Jinping may fall tomorrow morning.” 51:20 - 55:30 “The Chinese _are_ better organized ... but the problem is technology. ... To develop high technology, you need team spirit, you need continuity, you need loyalty. ... [In China, however] teams keep falling apart.” 58:30 - 59:30 “The one thing we know about innovations is that it always comes from marginal people, incremental [?] people, and you need heterogeneity.” 59:35 - 1:01:50 [Q: Is the US an empire in decline?] “There are places in US where they have the world’s leading experts on medieval Tibetan poetry.” “Revolutions of this kind [US] are always on the verge of completely collapsing, but they rely on foreigners.” 1:01:03 - 1:01:50 “The New Deal failed, ... but we armed for war. All the problems in the United States are caused by peace, and they are all solved.” 1:02:18 - 1:02:40 [If were to talk about China with Trump in an elevator:] “Be quiet, stand out of the way, and let them destroy themselves.” 1:03:30 [Some of Trump’s arguing with allies and ‘being unreliable’] “is actually smart. It forces these countries to confront the possibility of living in a Chinese world."
Great insights that can be applied elsewhere too, for example, Gandhi's extremist non violence and appeasement of bullies, has paradoxically led to massive violence and deaths in the Indian subcontinent, starting with the moplah riots of 1921, 1942 quit India movement, the partition of 1947, and onwards to the present. He is completely wrong though about what holds back the Indian economy. It is not the culture and traditions, but the crippling and archaic laws, administration, and legal structure that is a legacy from the British times and has been further strengthened by the colonized class that took over post 1947.
@Bruhh True. It was stated by some of the members in the drafting committee that the village of India was entirely missing in Ambedkar's conception of the nation and its constitution.
You always have a choice. You could make a mistake like electing a pacifist when the other side is aggressive. You could have a dogmatic leader who won't bow to the logic of the situation. You could have someone of weak character in office who will fail to seize a crucial opportunity. Democracy might allow course-correction, but what happens if the crisis happens in the middle of the term? Imagine if North Korea attacked South Korea during president Ban Ki Moon's term. That would be different than if it happened during the term of whoever succeeded him or cam before him. Same with Chamberlain in the UK. In Israel Yitzchak Rabin was elected on one platform of security and strength in the face of terrorism, but then implemented the opposite platform of appeasing terrorists and giving them weapons, territory, and international legitimacy. This wasn't imposed on him by America. It was a move fomented in secret by people within his own party behind the government's back, which he then chose to embrace. A huge own-goal that went against the will of the people, including his own voters, and went against the logic of strategy. So there's definitely free will to be a stubborn fool and hurt yourself, but if you're not blinded by some form of extremism such as hatred to the other side, dogma, idealism, and are open to adapt based on reality then when reality comes knocking you will have to react in certain ways.
The end I think he gets a bit carried away by his idea that Chinese can't work together. He neglects Chinese tech like DJI industries that exploded out of nowhere and now dominate. But a good argument nonetheless
This is a theatrical and entertaining analysis, but with respect it is not smart to underestimate the strategic abilities of the Chinese. I am not a strategist, I am an art historian, who has traced the global history of Chinese propaganda. The global networks of Chinese propaganda have been in place since the mid-sixties, and they are aggressive and focused. The Chinese are not autistic, they know the West better than the West knows itself. And generally speaking the West knows nothing about the East. Moreover the Chinese do not fight the same way as the West. The West will be under attack and not even know it. Ahem. China has been in existence arguably for 10,000 years. China did not become the largest country, and one of the oldest countries in the world because they are autistic. Get real.
I'm from Turkey. And it means I'm from the oldest, ancient, experienced, the traditional enemy of China. Yes, the Chinese thinking style can not be underestimated. But all of the other arguments of yours are wrong Victoria. Sorry.
I would tend to agree with the autistic argument. I have lived in China 14 years since 92. People and local gov have almost no in the interest in the outside world. Medical doctots are not even interested in the Covid and Hiv experiences abroad. Few politicians will have any direct knoledge of the outside world as they are restricted in travel. Their passports are held centrally. I have studied Chinese history and there is evidence that strategy and even basic preparations have been poor. Both the end of the Ming and Song could have easily been avoided. And Chinese interventions in Vietnam since 960 have all failed.
It is an entertaining and theatrical analysis, but the Chinese are not autistic. China knows the West better than the West knows itself. While, generally speaking, the West knows next to nothing about the East. It is not smart to underestimate Chinese strategists. I am an art historian, who has traced out the trajectory of global Maoist propaganda. Their strategy was in place in the mid-sixties and it was focused, aggressive, long term and international. Also the Chinese don't enter the fight in the same way. The West will be under attack and not even know it. The West is already under attack...
Noble prize in strategy should be started by awarding this master.
🙏
ABSOLUTELY LOVED THIS VIDEO
HOPE THIS CHANNEL REACHES MILLIONS
Kudos to you Michael Doran for letting the man speak and not interrupting like so many other interviewers feel the need to do.
Totally agree about the lack of loyalty leading to a lack of team work.
These all need to be put on apple podcasts and soundcloud
Jon Kohan I’ve commented this so many times and even offered to do it for free for Michael
Thank you for posting this. Greatly appreciated.
Thank you Mr. Doran and Luttwak for the insightful discussion.
Loved his advice for Trump and he certainly made a provocative claim about Xi Jinping. Please, please bring Mr. Luttwak back again!
Check him out again on warroom pandemic
So glad I found this channel!
This is just absolutely fascinating. Luttwak is one of a kind!
It's a very good discussion. I plan to watch it again. Mostly I agree with Mr. Luttwak's arguments. But no one can stay in the fight a little situation. When China moves on something, and they definitely move on something in the near future, many things actually, the US can not hold itself to intervene. This act can change the whole chemistry of this future collusion. Therefore this discussion is good to hear but hard to realize. Best regards Michael. Stay healthy.
Thanks. I have similar questions.
Fascinating, but I think he is wrong on the following economic issues:
1. America isn't great because it's diverse. It's diverse because its greatness attracts immigration from all over the world, and its greatness is caused by freedom which provides opportunity. That freedom has been eroding at an accelerated rate. Would the same exact people really fare worse at developing a nuke if they all happened to speak the same language? Was diversity what allowed the US to develop the bomb first, or putting together the greatest minds regardless of nationality, language, and culture? Would a bunch of diverse mediocrites really reach the bomb ahead of a bunch of homogeneous geniuses?
2. The New Deal didn't just not work. It made the Great Depression worse and caused it to last longer. Participation in WW2 didn't cause the Great Depression to end, since fighting a war is taking resources out of the economy and burning them. It was the destruction of Europe's industry that allowed America's untouched industry to massively increase exports.
3. The US has a huge national debt that just keeps increasing over time, and eventually this will lead to economic meltdown. Mr. Luttwak's belief in America's security seems like exactly the kind of thing he himself is warning about in the very same talk.
"America was doomed from the beginning." That's encouraging.
Very good discussion.
His book holds up well. Great state Autism is what brings down great powers, German empire, etc..
Its an inherent structural problem that big countries typically have.
Great interview
A great discussion with Mr Luttwak!
Wish you had time to touch on Taiwan & main differences between Germany & China, (I can think of several) & how those difference might impact his views & what we should watch for
I recently wrote about China
twitter.com/Ronald_Spitzer/status/1266052321038958593?s=20
09:15 - 11:00 Early prediction: [China wouldn’t be able to stop itself ...] “and they would repeat everything the Germans did, including the fact that as a land power ... they’d try to become a naval power”.
13:08 “Strategy is stronger than politics.”
16:40 - 17:22 “The logic of strategy is rooted in a fundamental physiological fact, which is that _Homo sapiens_ doesn’t like to get bugged around ... Moreover, if you attack a bunch of them, they coalesce together against them [the attacker].”
18:20 - 19:05 “The Chinese have delusions of adequacy in regard to the realm of strategy.”
19:30 “They used all the advanced techniques of what they call ‘post-modern political warfare’ in Hong Kong and Taiwan [but turned these places more against them].”
24:12 - 25:30 “[Currently,] The Chinese line should be that Trump is a maniac, ..., we are reasonable, instead ... in the same week they picked up quarrels with Vietnam, India, Australia and Sweden.”
25:45 - 26:25 “The Chinese ambassador in Paris sends no report, and if he does, nobody reads them. He sits in Paris and makes speeches.”
35:10 [Role of Human Agency:] “Human Agency intervened to understand the logic of strategy and to obey its instructions.” (like Bush Sr. did in the first Iraq War)
37:55 - 39:40 “All victories if continued long enough become defeats. War become peace, peace becomes war. ... If you ever feel really secure, watch out!”
46:40 “Xi Jinping has no knowledge of the outside world whatsoever.”
48:40 - 49:04 “Xi Jinping antagonized a lot of people in the Communist Party with his anti-corruption campaign. ... Xi Jinping may fall tomorrow morning.”
51:20 - 55:30 “The Chinese _are_ better organized ... but the problem is technology. ... To develop high technology, you need team spirit, you need continuity, you need loyalty. ... [In China, however] teams keep falling apart.”
58:30 - 59:30 “The one thing we know about innovations is that it always comes from marginal people, incremental [?] people, and you need heterogeneity.”
59:35 - 1:01:50 [Q: Is the US an empire in decline?] “There are places in US where they have the world’s leading experts on medieval Tibetan poetry.” “Revolutions of this kind [US] are always on the verge of completely collapsing, but they rely on foreigners.”
1:01:03 - 1:01:50 “The New Deal failed, ... but we armed for war. All the problems in the United States are caused by peace, and they are all solved.”
1:02:18 - 1:02:40 [If were to talk about China with Trump in an elevator:] “Be quiet, stand out of the way, and let them destroy themselves.”
1:03:30 [Some of Trump’s arguing with allies and ‘being unreliable’] “is actually smart. It forces these countries to confront the possibility of living in a Chinese world."
Thanks man. Appreciate it...😁
Thanks immensely for this!
Very good
Great insights that can be applied elsewhere too, for example, Gandhi's extremist non violence and appeasement of bullies, has paradoxically led to massive violence and deaths in the Indian subcontinent, starting with the moplah riots of 1921, 1942 quit India movement, the partition of 1947, and onwards to the present.
He is completely wrong though about what holds back the Indian economy. It is not the culture and traditions, but the crippling and archaic laws, administration, and legal structure that is a legacy from the British times and has been further strengthened by the colonized class that took over post 1947.
@Bruhh True. It was stated by some of the members in the drafting committee that the village of India was entirely missing in Ambedkar's conception of the nation and its constitution.
You always have a choice. You could make a mistake like electing a pacifist when the other side is aggressive. You could have a dogmatic leader who won't bow to the logic of the situation. You could have someone of weak character in office who will fail to seize a crucial opportunity. Democracy might allow course-correction, but what happens if the crisis happens in the middle of the term? Imagine if North Korea attacked South Korea during president Ban Ki Moon's term. That would be different than if it happened during the term of whoever succeeded him or cam before him. Same with Chamberlain in the UK. In Israel Yitzchak Rabin was elected on one platform of security and strength in the face of terrorism, but then implemented the opposite platform of appeasing terrorists and giving them weapons, territory, and international legitimacy. This wasn't imposed on him by America. It was a move fomented in secret by people within his own party behind the government's back, which he then chose to embrace. A huge own-goal that went against the will of the people, including his own voters, and went against the logic of strategy. So there's definitely free will to be a stubborn fool and hurt yourself, but if you're not blinded by some form of extremism such as hatred to the other side, dogma, idealism, and are open to adapt based on reality then when reality comes knocking you will have to react in certain ways.
The end I think he gets a bit carried away by his idea that Chinese can't work together. He neglects Chinese tech like DJI industries that exploded out of nowhere and now dominate. But a good argument nonetheless
🌹🌹
Need more videos
This is a theatrical and entertaining analysis, but with respect it is not smart to underestimate the strategic abilities of the Chinese. I am not a strategist, I am an art historian, who has traced the global history of Chinese propaganda. The global networks of Chinese propaganda have been in place since the mid-sixties, and they are aggressive and focused. The Chinese are not autistic, they know the West better than the West knows itself. And generally speaking the West knows nothing about the East. Moreover the Chinese do not fight the same way as the West. The West will be under attack and not even know it. Ahem. China has been in existence arguably for 10,000 years. China did not become the largest country, and one of the oldest countries in the world because they are autistic. Get real.
Awesome no nonsense comment
I'm from Turkey. And it means I'm from the oldest, ancient, experienced, the traditional enemy of China. Yes, the Chinese thinking style can not be underestimated. But all of the other arguments of yours are wrong Victoria. Sorry.
I would tend to agree with the autistic argument. I have lived in China 14 years since 92. People and local gov have almost no in the interest in the outside world. Medical doctots are not even interested in the Covid and Hiv experiences abroad. Few politicians will have any direct knoledge of the outside world as they are restricted in travel. Their passports are held centrally. I have studied Chinese history and there is evidence that strategy and even basic preparations have been poor. Both the end of the Ming and Song could have easily been avoided. And Chinese interventions in Vietnam since 960 have all failed.
It is an entertaining and theatrical analysis, but the Chinese are not autistic. China knows the West better than the West knows itself. While, generally speaking, the West knows next to nothing about the East. It is not smart to underestimate Chinese strategists. I am an art historian, who has traced out the trajectory of global Maoist propaganda. Their strategy was in place in the mid-sixties and it was focused, aggressive, long term and international. Also the Chinese don't enter the fight in the same way. The West will be under attack and not even know it. The West is already under attack...
Nonsense. Any original ideas?