Worth noting Juan Soto’s GPH% was almost always top 5 among qualified hitters even when he wasn’t doing too great. The results eventually caught up with the GPH%
The same can be said about Paul Goldschmidt. He had a rough start to the season average-wise but was hitting the ball hard. Lo and behold he's hitting almost .300 now and has a top ten on GPH% leaderboard
Also, it implies that people like Bell could probably *become* great hitters statistically by changing their launch angle. That’s what caused Daniel Murphy’s breakout years - a change to angle.
I now understand why people put "first" on videos; it's so intimidating trying to think of something clever to say when there are no comments on a vid.
the deGrom bit as a Mets fan is sad. he really was on pace for arguably the greatest pitching season of all time. would have solidified his hall of fame case imo. it will forever be one of the greatest what if seasons in baseball history
Sayom Ghosh-Dastidar yeah i really hope so. his biggest issue will be lack of starts/innings for his career. regardless, i imagine his resume could very easily look similar to koufax (minus the wins lol) which would be more than enough to get him in
Congrats man, this stat is a simple, clever and effective for describing basic success of approach vs outcome. As a giants fan I’m fascinated by the lack of representation by any of their core hitters, considering their offensive success.
The giants have been defined by their depth this year. While Posey, Crawford, Belt and Ruf are having great years at the plate, the highest wRC+ is Belt's 158, who only has 381 PAs. Hell, the giants only have 4 players who have more than 400 PAs this year, being Crawford (533) Yastrzemski (520), Posey (440), and Flores (421)
@@MC-vu9ls Considering Frazier sucked really really bad the second half of the season and was carried by BABIP with the Pirates he should be at the bottom.
@@jd0192 ichiro also played well into his 40s and was in Japan for part of his prime. His career numbers would look a lot better if he came to MLB earlier and decided to retire at a normal age. Not saying he should have retired but his numbers will look worse than a player that didn't have the athleticism to play well into his 40s
Whilst watching this video, I have come up with a moral conundrum. If we judge the effectiveness of new sabremetrics by whether or not they produce results that broadly reflect other sabremetrics (like any hitting metric that has Soto at the top, say)… then how do we produce new sabremetrics that can give a new way to look at previously undervalued players
I think what you kind of want to go for if you're just "creating a stat casually" is getting enough familiar names at the top that you're confident that your stat is reasonable while also sprinkling in some names that you wouldn't have expected where you can then go and look at how these players ended up at the top. I guess it's a different story if you actually run a team because then you can actually try out whether what your stat told you was valuable by promoting a player or giving them more/less playing time or giving them something to work on.
The idea is to use existing stats to check that your stat makes sense and if that makes sense then you see if the new stat highlights players that were overlooked. If you just created OPS you would see that many of the top OPS players also had a lot of RBI. But you might find a player on the OPS leaderboard that was on a bad team so didn't have many RBI and may have been overlooked previously. It's the same idea with newer stats vs more established stats
I think the value of stats also depend on your perspective. If you are a GM or manager, you want a metric that is as good as predicting success as possible. However, if you are a fan or sports journalist, having a metric that is really easy to understand and yet quite effective at predicting success, if probably more valuable. You don't want people to need a degree in statistics to understand your metric, you want quick and effective insight and I'm fairly certain that this is what these two metrics aim for.
In the lockout binging all of the videos on this account. This stat is a very nice simple way at looking for success. I will follow it during the 2022 season (if we have one). Your videos are all excellent! Keep up the stellar work
thank you for making great baseball content. this year has been a HUGE W for baseball and your channel is up there with the best on youtube. and think everyone reading this can agree with me. keep striving man
One way you could look at effectiveness of GPH is by studying how first-half GPH% predicts second-half OPS+. This will show you power of GPH% in predicting actual offensive output
New stat: qPA% - quality plate appearance percentage - PA’s that end in a walk, a hit, a sac fly, a sac bunt, or last 6+ pitches. Basically PA’s that make the pitcher work. Any thoughts?
@@vedjoshi7350 nah not too much more complicated, it would be called qPA%+ , and you would find that number doing the same thing that you would to get from OPS to OPS+
Good piece of content Bailey, this smoothbrain right here can totally understand these two metrics and how they rank out players. I think your point about launch angles is solid and would be easy to incorporate. Here's another idea, how about average # of pitches seen per plate appearance? Not as much of a rate stat as exit velo but could help tease out issues like you saw with ol' Jeff. I feel like loading the count on a pitcher, and then maybe fouling off a few more pitches, takes immense skill and can really grind down the pitcher and shorten their outings.
I haven’t finished the video yet but I really hope you refine the stat over the off-season and keep changing the stat and posting videos over the next few years until you deem it perfect. It’d be really cool if you perfected the stat and it became mainstream to predict success. Keep up the good work don’t quit now!
@@carterpayte9463 So? wrc+ is completely arbitrary. Perez has twice as many RBI's as Grandal. You know, the thing that scores runs. Those win baseball games, which is the point of playing baseball. In fact Perez has more of all the counting stats, except walks. The only thing that grandal does well. Grandal only has like 350 PA, how can you be the best player at your position when you cant even stay on the field?
I use this stat for my personal softball stats. Definitely a fun and interesting way to view your performance. “Hey I hit the ball super hard, oh well” takes the sting out of those great catches/plays that Rob you
I love this stat for pitchers. Large sample size of all different types of hitters. Makes it hard for other factors to potentially sway things (shift, hitters who may hit the ball to pull side or oppo more often, etc.)
This is the stat in baeseball ive always really been looking for but couldnt find. U r a boss. If mlb or team scouts dont start start using this they are beyond help. One tweak i would like to see, but you may have already accounted for it without me understanding, is some kind of differencial for fast pitches getting higher exit velocity reagardless of quality of contact.
I think it would be cool to have an expanded stat similar to this, basically like a productive at bat star that meadures every productive at bat including working the count, sac hits, advancing the runners, etc
i've thought about this stat all season and i think that if you would ever expand this stat it should include one single parameter... outcomes of pa's that consist of more than 6 pitches. for hitters, it should slightly weight a good hit ball or walk on the 9th pitch higher than a 4 pitch walk and for pitchers, do the inverse because for me personally and in the minds of managers in the current game, pitch count has become increasingly more important for strategy decisions; not to mention that it shows a hitter's ability to work counts and fight off tough pitches and a pitcher's ability to put away hitters more efficiently. i think this would sort of lessen the "barry bonds effect" where good hitters are pitched around because of their stature and get to more of the nitty gritty as to who's really hitting and pitching well. love the video, keep up the good work!!
If you want to make GPP a counting stat, you have to consider additional context. The difference between Burnes and Wheeler though is the Brewers have a phenomenal bullpen plus a cautious manager that pulls pitchers before things get out of hand. I can't say the same about the Phillies. Also Burnes was out due to COVID in the middle of the season.
I was surprised how accurate GPP was to the general vibe of who we consider to be the best pitchers this season, and I think it’s because you combined ground balls and strikeouts together in one metric, measuring them more specifically. I feel like there’s this assumption that pitchers have to either be ground-ball pitchers or strikeout pitchers, as if there’s a preferred outcome. GPP kind of eliminates that assumption, and says that the best pitchers either don’t have or don’t need a preference because their stuff is so good they can attack you multiple ways. Very cool that you created a stat that could potentially change that narrative!
I love it. Reminds me of playing ball when someone would say "hey that's a good piece of pitching to get out of that jam there". That being said is there a way to improve GPH by stipulating all hard hit balls that are hits or > a certain BABIP? Factors in a "good piece of hitting" that got robbed or a hard hit ball right at someone?
I think it would be an interesting idea to explore projections vs reality. In recent years it seems a like people are putting a lot of energy and hype into projections just for a lot of them to fall flat. This season had a lot of those examples and because of that I don’t think projections should be worth valuing that much.
It might be interesting to look at gph against for pitchers which could show some weaknesses some of the surprises. Maybe even a gpp - gph against to show the proportion of good pitching to bad pitching for a better look at a pitcher.
I literally don't like baseball and haven't watched it in years, but I'm out here enjoying my dinner, learning about the best baseball players at a made-up stat. Good stuff my man
I think where the stat differs for value on pitchers vs. hitters is that a GPP is very often an out, but a GPH can end in an out a lot, like with Josh Bell. A GPP shows you the best pitchers in the league because soft contact and strikeouts are the two ways to get by. GPH doesn't account for contact guys, but includes guys that hit a lot of fly ball outs or hard grounders which includes some less productive hitters. Interesting how that divide presents itself.
You could multiply the gph stat by the tangent of the launch angle, assuming a 45 degree launch angle is perfect and any thing less adds more ground balls and anything more adds more pup ups, just a thought
I was playing with stats on Fangraphs the other day. I made up a custom leader board that including Hard Hit %, contact rate and O-swing rate. Similar premise to this. Bell was one of the few players who exceeded league average in all of those stats, although he got knocked out when I added launch angle. I probably should've just gone with barrel rate, contact and O-swing
Same result if you looked at RBI leaderboard - mostly good players at the top with a few surprises. The real eval of this will be when we can see if it's predictive year to year.
I think looking at launch angle of lack there of for gph for a guy like Bell or even a guy like dj lemahieu who i also saw on this list is a good indicator of potential/ shows adjustments that could be made. As a Yankees fan the big difference between DJ this season and years past is he doesn't seem to be elevating the ball as much as before. His GPH indicates he is hitting the ball hard though so maybe focusing on lifting the ball a bit more could turn more of those hard ground balls into more line drives over a fields head into the outfield.
David Fletcher actually didn’t have that bad of a season and was top 5 in batting average about halfway through the season. He doesn’t hit the ball great but he also strikes out very rarely (about once in three games). Since he puts the ball in play so often, his batting average is pretty good just because of the sheer volume of balls in play
You should look into if you could add a filter/slider where the person viewing the stats could change the criteria? Like change the hard hit balls to 105+ mph or something. Just an idea. :)
Hey Bailey, do you think that this stat could be used in front offices, or is it more for us as fans to help evaluate guys? I think it's a fantastic stat to have access to as a fan, but I'm curious if you think it could be applied in other contexts!
The names Great piece of pitching and hitting for your stat sound like they would have a lot less math involved than they actually do. It's also way easier to understand than Xwoba or wrc+.
Big fan of this, but... Need to clarify the hard hits. Rob Deer hit the cover off the ball but there's no chance he would ever warrant being as high on your list as that stat would make him.
Neat. Have you considered graphing team gpp and team gph against game wins to see how predictive it is of winning games? Looks like it would be worse than ops, but maybe not that much worse!
I would incorporate launch angle to GPH, but make it fairly forgiving. Give a wide range, but cut out some of the lower grounders and some of the higher flys. Anything between 0 deg and 35 deg, for example, I would consider a GPH.
Max Fried should be in the Cy Young talks, no one has been better in the 2nd half. Scherzer was right there with him, until his start last night at the Padres. Fried has a 1.3 ERA his last 14 starts, he’s been on fire. Longest consecutive streak of quality starts this year.
I think GPH is a good stat to be used in addition to other existing stats. I don't think it means much I'm a vacuum except maybe demonstrating how well a batter uses each hit opportunity, but if used with perhaps BABIP it can help demonstrate what makes a batter an elite hitter
Ohtani's GPP + GPH is 492 37% higher than any player not named Zack Wheeler (who he's still ahead of by 60) this season. And seems like its easily the best total of the statcast era, beating 2018 Scherzer by 17. Sort of terrifying.
I think to fix the Josh Bell problem you have is instead of just using speed of ball off the bat to define a good hit is to use the hit expectancy of balls put into play stat which already takes into account speed off the bat and launch angle.
one issue with GPH is that it actually penalizes hitters for HBPs. Adds 1 PA and is not counted as a GPH. Minor critique but still something that should be fixed
In my opinion the GPP is actually a really good stat but I think it could be even better if instead of their k% it was their k-BB% but again it will be more complex
I think GPP would be helped by a stat measuring bad pieces of pitching. Either a walk or a ball with an exit velo that is x MPH and more. Then divide a pitchers GPP by BPP.
Would be interesting to add pitch count this metric. A 10+ pitch at bat that ends in an out for example. A stat for a quality at bat rather than a good piece of hitting.
I feel like GPH is a great stat for developing players rather than top-rate hitters. You have a guy who can crush it and walk, and this stat makes him appear higher up lists than a regular slash line does, then I want to know more about them as a scout. There might be something to work with.
I would say Nola is an understandable outlier for GPP. When he’s been on his game, he looks like a Cy Young caliber pitcher. When he’s been off, he looks like he belongs in AAA. One of the weirder years for a pitcher that I can remember
I enjoy that you understand that the stat can be flawed by pointing out players that don't quite fit with the typical list of great players, you shouldn't forget that some stats show underlying success that is not seen through other standard stats. I think Aaron Nola is having a down year but I think his appearance on the list may indicate he's having more success than one might think
I was thinking of something along the lines of RBIs minus homers, even though RBIs are generally thought to be overvalued from a sabermetric standpoint. It's not a very refined thought, but still interesting.
hi bailey. brooks raley got into a lot of shitty situations during the beginning of the year when the astros bullpen was used toilet water. hes always pumped and ready to perform. i like him a lot
I wonder how prime Ichiro would fare in this stat. Never walked and wasn't known for hitting it hard but still obviously a very productive hitter in practice
What if you added at-bats over a certain amount of pitches to the hitting stat? I would consider a 10+ pitch AB ending in a strikeout a good piece of hitting just because of wearing the pitcher down.
I don't know if this is the right place to ask but is there some kind of stat for variance in pitcher's starts? For example, some pitchers seem to give up 3 runs every outing while another will alternate between 0 and 6. I want to see if there is some kind of overall effect in terms of winning between consistent and inconsistent pitchers with equivalent ERA. My main holdup from just taking the actual variance of the runs allowed per start is how to deal with the innings pitched too. Both runs allowed per start and ERA per start seem wrong.
These stats are both simple and I think a really good test or measure for players, obviously their is exceptions to both but for most players this is a good tell, glad to see Lindor high up I felt like his hit the ball hard this year despite the bad numbers. The Degrom thing is such a shame man hope he gets back to full health tho for his sake.
If you used statcast barrels instead of hard hit percentage I think you'd get a better GPH stat that isn't so difficult to understand (though I guess realistically some scaling would be needed.) I'd also be curious to see one that uses only launch angle without hard hit rate.
Good to see Eduardo Rodriguez in the top 15 of GPP. The clown show that is the Red Sox defense didn’t do him any favors - his FIP is a run and a half better than his ERA.
Is there a reason to use hard hits instead of barrels besides making the stat less complicated to explain? I would think that using barrels instead would help the problem with not accounting for launch angle.
This almost seems to close to quality at-bats, IMO, just with less outcomes taken into account. I think it's a great starting point, but would ultimately turn into something too similar to QAB% to become a "new" statistic
One reason this stat is flawed is that it counts walks as a gph but not “weak” hit singles that go against the shift even though they produce the same result (man on first)
Corbin Burnes had such an incredible season, and I'm so sad that he probably won't win the Cy Young for it. I suppose I just value rate more amongst guys who are qualified
You made a stat that has Tim Locastro at the bottom of the list, so yes it sucks. Obviously just kidding, it’s a really cool concept and I’d like to see it on more baseball stats websites like bbref
the most stat of all time
It is at least one of the stats of all time
Yes
For sure
Aye Bengal
@@barry7136 i ran the stats. he's right ^
Worth noting Juan Soto’s GPH% was almost always top 5 among qualified hitters even when he wasn’t doing too great. The results eventually caught up with the GPH%
And the only thing that really changed was launch angle.
The same can be said about Paul Goldschmidt. He had a rough start to the season average-wise but was hitting the ball hard. Lo and behold he's hitting almost .300 now and has a top ten on GPH% leaderboard
Doesn’t that say that even “slumping” he is a great hitter
Also, it implies that people like Bell could probably *become* great hitters statistically by changing their launch angle. That’s what caused Daniel Murphy’s breakout years - a change to angle.
I think GPP being more predictive of success than GPH has a lot to do with pitchers having much less control over launch angle than hitters.
Exactly. 80mph off the bat is always good for a pitcher while 95 off the bat may not be good for a hitter especially if it’s on the ground.
I now understand why people put "first" on videos; it's so intimidating trying to think of something clever to say when there are no comments on a vid.
It’s like being a stand-up comedian.
Bailey has become Foolish Statcreatorball at this point.
the deGrom bit as a Mets fan is sad. he really was on pace for arguably the greatest pitching season of all time. would have solidified his hall of fame case imo. it will forever be one of the greatest what if seasons in baseball history
I think he will be a HOFer anyway. Dude is just too good.
Sayom Ghosh-Dastidar yeah i really hope so. his biggest issue will be lack of starts/innings for his career. regardless, i imagine his resume could very easily look similar to koufax (minus the wins lol) which would be more than enough to get him in
Look at that season Kershaw got hurt in.
His ERA+ was like 280 or something silly through almost half a season.
Also fuck the dodgers and fuck the DH.
DeGrom has almost as much WAR as he has wins this season. He's *still* gonna get downballot votes for CYA this year. That's crazy.
The timing tho sounds like a sticky situation
Lindor as good as Ohtani according to GPH. Im in
lolmets
Your profile picture looks odd
Linder has been unlucky this year
“Why the Mets will defy the math and win the World Series”
@@somebodyandthem looks like a headshot photo a modeling place would take 😂
Congrats man, this stat is a simple, clever and effective for describing basic success of approach vs outcome. As a giants fan I’m fascinated by the lack of representation by any of their core hitters, considering their offensive success.
The giants have been defined by their depth this year. While Posey, Crawford, Belt and Ruf are having great years at the plate, the highest wRC+ is Belt's 158, who only has 381 PAs. Hell, the giants only have 4 players who have more than 400 PAs this year, being Crawford (533) Yastrzemski (520), Posey (440), and Flores (421)
Not that difficult to understand they cheat
I feel like an Ichiro type player would do badly on this list anyone that hits soft to get hits
Yup, perfect example was Adam Frazier being on the low end of that list. Still a pretty interesting stat tho.
@@MC-vu9ls Considering Frazier sucked really really bad the second half of the season and was carried by BABIP with the Pirates he should be at the bottom.
@@saintbeesechurger2800 this 2nd half for him has been unbelievably bad
Ichiro has a 107 OPS+. His numbers do badly on anything that isn’t batting average.
@@jd0192 ichiro also played well into his 40s and was in Japan for part of his prime. His career numbers would look a lot better if he came to MLB earlier and decided to retire at a normal age. Not saying he should have retired but his numbers will look worse than a player that didn't have the athleticism to play well into his 40s
I was surprised to see Framber rank so poorly.
I’d consider upping the threshold on grounders to 100 or 105 while keeping fly balls at 95.
Whilst watching this video, I have come up with a moral conundrum. If we judge the effectiveness of new sabremetrics by whether or not they produce results that broadly reflect other sabremetrics (like any hitting metric that has Soto at the top, say)… then how do we produce new sabremetrics that can give a new way to look at previously undervalued players
I think what you kind of want to go for if you're just "creating a stat casually" is getting enough familiar names at the top that you're confident that your stat is reasonable while also sprinkling in some names that you wouldn't have expected where you can then go and look at how these players ended up at the top. I guess it's a different story if you actually run a team because then you can actually try out whether what your stat told you was valuable by promoting a player or giving them more/less playing time or giving them something to work on.
The idea is to use existing stats to check that your stat makes sense and if that makes sense then you see if the new stat highlights players that were overlooked. If you just created OPS you would see that many of the top OPS players also had a lot of RBI. But you might find a player on the OPS leaderboard that was on a bad team so didn't have many RBI and may have been overlooked previously. It's the same idea with newer stats vs more established stats
I think the value of stats also depend on your perspective. If you are a GM or manager, you want a metric that is as good as predicting success as possible. However, if you are a fan or sports journalist, having a metric that is really easy to understand and yet quite effective at predicting success, if probably more valuable. You don't want people to need a degree in statistics to understand your metric, you want quick and effective insight and I'm fairly certain that this is what these two metrics aim for.
In the lockout binging all of the videos on this account. This stat is a very nice simple way at looking for success. I will follow it during the 2022 season (if we have one). Your videos are all excellent! Keep up the stellar work
thank you for making great baseball content. this year has been a HUGE W for baseball and your channel is up there with the best on youtube. and think everyone reading this can agree with me. keep striving man
One way you could look at effectiveness of GPH is by studying how first-half GPH% predicts second-half OPS+. This will show you power of GPH% in predicting actual offensive output
I feel like this stat encompasses what we want out both pitcher and batter and any outlier would just a niche in their game just like Maddux or Ichiro
New stat: qPA% - quality plate appearance percentage - PA’s that end in a walk, a hit, a sac fly, a sac bunt, or last 6+ pitches. Basically PA’s that make the pitcher work. Any thoughts?
i really like that idea
it might be better if different outcomes were weighted but that could also make it more complex than it needs to be
@@vedjoshi7350 nah not too much more complicated, it would be called qPA%+ , and you would find that number doing the same thing that you would to get from OPS to OPS+
What about HBP and Catcher's Interference?
@@vedjoshi7350 That's basically what wOBA already does, anyway.
Good piece of content Bailey, this smoothbrain right here can totally understand these two metrics and how they rank out players. I think your point about launch angles is solid and would be easy to incorporate. Here's another idea, how about average # of pitches seen per plate appearance? Not as much of a rate stat as exit velo but could help tease out issues like you saw with ol' Jeff. I feel like loading the count on a pitcher, and then maybe fouling off a few more pitches, takes immense skill and can really grind down the pitcher and shorten their outings.
I haven’t finished the video yet but I really hope you refine the stat over the off-season and keep changing the stat and posting videos over the next few years until you deem it perfect. It’d be really cool if you perfected the stat and it became mainstream to predict success. Keep up the good work don’t quit now!
Grandal is the best catcher in the league right now. 24 BB% is just mind boggling.
Salvador Perez tho
@@influentialdetour Salvy sucks
BB dont drive in runs. Salvy has a better bat for sure.
@@hughjass5156 yasmani has a way higher wrc+
@@carterpayte9463 So? wrc+ is completely arbitrary. Perez has twice as many RBI's as Grandal. You know, the thing that scores runs. Those win baseball games, which is the point of playing baseball. In fact Perez has more of all the counting stats, except walks. The only thing that grandal does well. Grandal only has like 350 PA, how can you be the best player at your position when you cant even stay on the field?
I was inspired to create some of my own stats after seeing you create GPH and used them to win my fantasy baseball league!
As a finance/analytics guy I absolutely love your channel. Keep up the good work!
dubious of any created stat that supports cole's argument for al cy young
I use this stat for my personal softball stats. Definitely a fun and interesting way to view your performance. “Hey I hit the ball super hard, oh well” takes the sting out of those great catches/plays that Rob you
I love this stat for pitchers. Large sample size of all different types of hitters. Makes it hard for other factors to potentially sway things (shift, hitters who may hit the ball to pull side or oppo more often, etc.)
You should analyze how each team performed with these stats as a whole, and see how well you can use your stat to predict W/L.
This is the stat in baeseball ive always really been looking for but couldnt find. U r a boss. If mlb or team scouts dont start start using this they are beyond help. One tweak i would like to see, but you may have already accounted for it without me understanding, is some kind of differencial for fast pitches getting higher exit velocity reagardless of quality of contact.
I'd love to see team added to this as a filterable item.
I think it would be cool to have an expanded stat similar to this, basically like a productive at bat star that meadures every productive at bat including working the count, sac hits, advancing the runners, etc
i've thought about this stat all season and i think that if you would ever expand this stat it should include one single parameter... outcomes of pa's that consist of more than 6 pitches. for hitters, it should slightly weight a good hit ball or walk on the 9th pitch higher than a 4 pitch walk and for pitchers, do the inverse because for me personally and in the minds of managers in the current game, pitch count has become increasingly more important for strategy decisions; not to mention that it shows a hitter's ability to work counts and fight off tough pitches and a pitcher's ability to put away hitters more efficiently. i think this would sort of lessen the "barry bonds effect" where good hitters are pitched around because of their stature and get to more of the nitty gritty as to who's really hitting and pitching well. love the video, keep up the good work!!
If you want to make GPP a counting stat, you have to consider additional context.
The difference between Burnes and Wheeler though is the Brewers have a phenomenal bullpen plus a cautious manager that pulls pitchers before things get out of hand. I can't say the same about the Phillies. Also Burnes was out due to COVID in the middle of the season.
I slid it down a bit to 350 PA, and had my heart broken again seeing Acuna on there. God he was having such a good season.
I like how Votto had 69 walks at the recording of this. Great dude and still bangs
I was surprised how accurate GPP was to the general vibe of who we consider to be the best pitchers this season, and I think it’s because you combined ground balls and strikeouts together in one metric, measuring them more specifically. I feel like there’s this assumption that pitchers have to either be ground-ball pitchers or strikeout pitchers, as if there’s a preferred outcome. GPP kind of eliminates that assumption, and says that the best pitchers either don’t have or don’t need a preference because their stuff is so good they can attack you multiple ways. Very cool that you created a stat that could potentially change that narrative!
I love it. Reminds me of playing ball when someone would say "hey that's a good piece of pitching to get out of that jam there".
That being said is there a way to improve GPH by stipulating all hard hit balls that are hits or > a certain BABIP? Factors in a "good piece of hitting" that got robbed or a hard hit ball right at someone?
I think it would be an interesting idea to explore projections vs reality. In recent years it seems a like people are putting a lot of energy and hype into projections just for a lot of them to fall flat. This season had a lot of those examples and because of that I don’t think projections should be worth valuing that much.
It might be interesting to look at gph against for pitchers which could show some weaknesses some of the surprises. Maybe even a gpp - gph against to show the proportion of good pitching to bad pitching for a better look at a pitcher.
I literally don't like baseball and haven't watched it in years, but I'm out here enjoying my dinner, learning about the best baseball players at a made-up stat. Good stuff my man
I think where the stat differs for value on pitchers vs. hitters is that a GPP is very often an out, but a GPH can end in an out a lot, like with Josh Bell. A GPP shows you the best pitchers in the league because soft contact and strikeouts are the two ways to get by. GPH doesn't account for contact guys, but includes guys that hit a lot of fly ball outs or hard grounders which includes some less productive hitters. Interesting how that divide presents itself.
You could multiply the gph stat by the tangent of the launch angle, assuming a 45 degree launch angle is perfect and any thing less adds more ground balls and anything more adds more pup ups, just a thought
This looks like a good stat for gauging "fitness" of a player; their likelyhood of having another good season in them.
i appreciate the josh bell representation. It reminds us what makes an everyday major-leaguer
I was playing with stats on Fangraphs the other day. I made up a custom leader board that including Hard Hit %, contact rate and O-swing rate. Similar premise to this. Bell was one of the few players who exceeded league average in all of those stats, although he got knocked out when I added launch angle. I probably should've just gone with barrel rate, contact and O-swing
These stats really highlight how good the white sox have been this year, especially with our batters and starting rotation
They will get destroyed by Houston lmao. Pathetic September tbh
@@NoName-fo7mz ok
Undisputed GOAT of TH-cam baseball content???
Same result if you looked at RBI leaderboard - mostly good players at the top with a few surprises. The real eval of this will be when we can see if it's predictive year to year.
I think looking at launch angle of lack there of for gph for a guy like Bell or even a guy like dj lemahieu who i also saw on this list is a good indicator of potential/ shows adjustments that could be made. As a Yankees fan the big difference between DJ this season and years past is he doesn't seem to be elevating the ball as much as before. His GPH indicates he is hitting the ball hard though so maybe focusing on lifting the ball a bit more could turn more of those hard ground balls into more line drives over a fields head into the outfield.
I think a "swinging at pitches outside the zone per 3 At bats" would be interesting as a hitter and pitcher stat
Why have you normalized it to per 3 if you don’t mind me asking?
@@danielleahy15 probably average amount per game
@@michaelperson4117 javy would set the world record for this stat in one series
This would just be chase rate with extra steps
Framing tho?
seeing both my bois Alcantara and Trevor Rogers in there is pretty nice
David Fletcher actually didn’t have that bad of a season and was top 5 in batting average about halfway through the season. He doesn’t hit the ball great but he also strikes out very rarely (about once in three games). Since he puts the ball in play so often, his batting average is pretty good just because of the sheer volume of balls in play
You should look into if you could add a filter/slider where the person viewing the stats could change the criteria? Like change the hard hit balls to 105+ mph or something. Just an idea. :)
I think an interesting expansion on this would be GPP%/GPH% against. It’d be interesting to see who is best at preventing either one
Hey Bailey, do you think that this stat could be used in front offices, or is it more for us as fans to help evaluate guys? I think it's a fantastic stat to have access to as a fan, but I'm curious if you think it could be applied in other contexts!
The names Great piece of pitching and hitting for your stat sound like they would have a lot less math involved than they actually do. It's also way easier to understand than Xwoba or wrc+.
Wheeler is 10 to 1 to win the Cy Young at most sportsbooks. Scherzer and Burnes basically a toss up at both +120 at most places
Big fan of this, but... Need to clarify the hard hits. Rob Deer hit the cover off the ball but there's no chance he would ever warrant being as high on your list as that stat would make him.
Neat. Have you considered graphing team gpp and team gph against game wins to see how predictive it is of winning games? Looks like it would be worse than ops, but maybe not that much worse!
I would incorporate launch angle to GPH, but make it fairly forgiving. Give a wide range, but cut out some of the lower grounders and some of the higher flys. Anything between 0 deg and 35 deg, for example, I would consider a GPH.
Max Fried should be in the Cy Young talks, no one has been better in the 2nd half. Scherzer was right there with him, until his start last night at the Padres. Fried has a 1.3 ERA his last 14 starts, he’s been on fire. Longest consecutive streak of quality starts this year.
I think GPH is a good stat to be used in addition to other existing stats. I don't think it means much I'm a vacuum except maybe demonstrating how well a batter uses each hit opportunity, but if used with perhaps BABIP it can help demonstrate what makes a batter an elite hitter
Carlos Santana's 2019 season is tied for the 24th best season on GPH% and his 2016 season is 6th and 2019 season is 9th for GPH.
Stat approved!
well seeing juan soto and vlad jr rank 1 and 2 in good piece of hitting def checks out
I think you should add HBP, sac bunts, or any at bat that results in an RBI (maybe also advancing in the runners)
Good job enjoy your videos You would to take division into account because a lot of the pitchers you named pitch in the N L East
Nice prediction of Dylan cease’s dominance this year. I noticed him in the GPP list. He will get cy young votes this year
Ohtani's GPP + GPH is 492
37% higher than any player not named Zack Wheeler (who he's still ahead of by 60) this season.
And seems like its easily the best total of the statcast era, beating 2018 Scherzer by 17.
Sort of terrifying.
I think to fix the Josh Bell problem you have is instead of just using speed of ball off the bat to define a good hit is to use the hit expectancy of balls put into play stat which already takes into account speed off the bat and launch angle.
one issue with GPH is that it actually penalizes hitters for HBPs. Adds 1 PA and is not counted as a GPH. Minor critique but still something that should be fixed
GPH & GPH?!?! Why are you not the commissioner sir?! I love your content! Juan Sotos second half has got to put him at the top of GPH!
In my opinion the GPP is actually a really good stat but I think it could be even better if instead of their k% it was their k-BB% but again it will be more complex
I think GPP would be helped by a stat measuring bad pieces of pitching. Either a walk or a ball with an exit velo that is x MPH and more. Then divide a pitchers GPP by BPP.
Would be interesting to add pitch count this metric. A 10+ pitch at bat that ends in an out for example. A stat for a quality at bat rather than a good piece of hitting.
I feel like GPH is a great stat for developing players rather than top-rate hitters. You have a guy who can crush it and walk, and this stat makes him appear higher up lists than a regular slash line does, then I want to know more about them as a scout. There might be something to work with.
solid idea, but I think the stat would be much better if you were to use the stat cast barrel% as opposed to hard hit%
I would say Nola is an understandable outlier for GPP. When he’s been on his game, he looks like a Cy Young caliber pitcher. When he’s been off, he looks like he belongs in AAA. One of the weirder years for a pitcher that I can remember
I enjoy that you understand that the stat can be flawed by pointing out players that don't quite fit with the typical list of great players, you shouldn't forget that some stats show underlying success that is not seen through other standard stats. I think Aaron Nola is having a down year but I think his appearance on the list may indicate he's having more success than one might think
This is the content we all want
my take is if a hitter's gph is high but is ranked lower on the general list, he still has a good chance of comeback the next season
I was thinking of something along the lines of RBIs minus homers, even though RBIs are generally thought to be overvalued from a sabermetric standpoint. It's not a very refined thought, but still interesting.
Mostly due to the 99 overall Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs that were added to MLB The Show this month. Low-ish power stats, but those dudes still rake.
Maybe for the hitters stat you should add the number of times they get on base to eliminate the launch angle problem
Awesome idea!
Would swapping barrels% for hard hit % fix the launch angle issue?
hi bailey. brooks raley got into a lot of shitty situations during the beginning of the year when the astros bullpen was used toilet water. hes always pumped and ready to perform. i like him a lot
I wonder how prime Ichiro would fare in this stat. Never walked and wasn't known for hitting it hard but still obviously a very productive hitter in practice
What if you added at-bats over a certain amount of pitches to the hitting stat? I would consider a 10+ pitch AB ending in a strikeout a good piece of hitting just because of wearing the pitcher down.
I don't know if this is the right place to ask but is there some kind of stat for variance in pitcher's starts? For example, some pitchers seem to give up 3 runs every outing while another will alternate between 0 and 6. I want to see if there is some kind of overall effect in terms of winning between consistent and inconsistent pitchers with equivalent ERA. My main holdup from just taking the actual variance of the runs allowed per start is how to deal with the innings pitched too. Both runs allowed per start and ERA per start seem wrong.
These stats are both simple and I think a really good test or measure for players, obviously their is exceptions to both but for most players this is a good tell, glad to see Lindor high up I felt like his hit the ball hard this year despite the bad numbers. The Degrom thing is such a shame man hope he gets back to full health tho for his sake.
If you used statcast barrels instead of hard hit percentage I think you'd get a better GPH stat that isn't so difficult to understand (though I guess realistically some scaling would be needed.) I'd also be curious to see one that uses only launch angle without hard hit rate.
3 of the top 6 gpp percentage are Brewers starters, they are gonna be dangerous in the postseason
Good to see Eduardo Rodriguez in the top 15 of GPP. The clown show that is the Red Sox defense didn’t do him any favors - his FIP is a run and a half better than his ERA.
Is there a reason to use hard hits instead of barrels besides making the stat less complicated to explain? I would think that using barrels instead would help the problem with not accounting for launch angle.
dude. brooks raley and paul sewald are having career years in 2022. holy shit
3:24 "I don't want to sound like a Josh Bell hater or anything"
you mean you don't want to sound like a... Josh Hader?
You could add launch angle to the equation… but then you might as well just have barrel% + bb%
This almost seems to close to quality at-bats, IMO, just with less outcomes taken into account. I think it's a great starting point, but would ultimately turn into something too similar to QAB% to become a "new" statistic
Lmao, I had to look up Brooks Raley I had never heard of this guy and was intrigued. I saw the -.4 War on the year and was no longer intrigued
Would be interesting to see how top 20 pitchers perform against top 20 hitters with these metrics
One reason this stat is flawed is that it counts walks as a gph but not “weak” hit singles that go against the shift even though they produce the same result (man on first)
Well hitting the ball softly is not successful
I find it interesting that Patrick Corbin was not at the bottom of the barrel for GPP% despite the awful year he's had
Corbin Burnes had such an incredible season, and I'm so sad that he probably won't win the Cy Young for it. I suppose I just value rate more amongst guys who are qualified
You made a stat that has Tim Locastro at the bottom of the list, so yes it sucks.
Obviously just kidding, it’s a really cool concept and I’d like to see it on more baseball stats websites like bbref
As a Twins fan, the "smell baseball" was greatly appreciated.