The Pitcher with Negative FIP (Statline Scouting)

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 91

  • @FoolishBailey
    @FoolishBailey  ปีที่แล้ว +113

    A couple things I got wrong
    * This is A.J. Smith Shawver's 2nd FULL pro season, not first
    * Accidentally said Nathan Martorella was a Rockie rather than Padre once

  • @willocueva
    @willocueva ปีที่แล้ว +140

    If I was an MLB scout I would evaluate players solely on how good they look in stirrups

    • @yukondeighton8075
      @yukondeighton8075 ปีที่แล้ว

      I would strictly look at how hot their girlfriend is

    • @_mokaleek_
      @_mokaleek_ ปีที่แล้ว +8

      If you look good, you play good

    • @PK-ts8iz
      @PK-ts8iz ปีที่แล้ว

      ​@@_mokaleek_If you play good, they pay good

  • @vaporsilent8910
    @vaporsilent8910 ปีที่แล้ว +27

    Andrew Abbott is insane. As a reds fan I am pump to see him pitch tomorrow. His stuff is so good and can’t wait for him to get the respect he deserves in the majors

  • @chrisarcher1506
    @chrisarcher1506 ปีที่แล้ว +24

    Abbott just shoved, Bailey never misses

  • @Ben_Lieberman
    @Ben_Lieberman ปีที่แล้ว +94

    re: David Hamilton's wRC+, Polar Park in Worcester makes Coors Field look pitcher-friendly

    • @swirlingtoilets
      @swirlingtoilets ปีที่แล้ว

      Jesus, what about the park makes it so good for hitters?

    • @mablaba3629
      @mablaba3629 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hoooooold up *what*

    • @victorjensen2858
      @victorjensen2858 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Short fences, and there’s a bizarre jet stream there that seems to always make the wind blow out hard. Not smart enough to have a better explanation

    • @EldritchCuriosity
      @EldritchCuriosity ปีที่แล้ว +7

      @@victorjensen2858 Ben is right, the Batting Park Factor on Polar Park is 108.564, which is like +2 to +3 on Coors. It's the local geography making a wind tunnel over it; on most days the wind over the park goes straight out, and on much less frequent days it comes in. Recently Bobby Dalbec hit a 515' home run to center-left where the wind seems to be strongest. But David Hamilton is actually fast as hell and a consistent offensive presence (Source: Go to games regularly). Sadly that monster hit did not get to the trains :(

  • @bobbest8627
    @bobbest8627 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Great content… I’m an old guy and don’t know how to use all the sabermetrics. I need somebody like you to do the heavy lifting for me, thanks
    But I really do love it when somebody who was drafted in the later round, hacks their way up to the Biggs. My Giants just promoted Ryan Walker. 31st rounder and wasn’t on anybody’s list. 27 year old rookie got his first win, kudos to him. It’s a beautiful thing.

  • @tristanmorgan4003
    @tristanmorgan4003 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    This is the best series. Don’t ever stop.

  • @resmarted
    @resmarted ปีที่แล้ว +7

    FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a metric in baseball that measures a pitcher's effectiveness in terms of outcomes directly controlled by the pitcher, such as strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. FIP is calculated using a formula that aims to remove the impact of defense and luck on a pitcher's performance.
    In theory, it is possible for a pitcher to have a negative FIP. A negative FIP indicates that the pitcher's performance in the controlled aspects of the game (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs) has been exceptionally good, resulting in fewer expected runs allowed than the league average. This could be achieved through a high number of strikeouts, a low number of walks and home runs allowed, and other favorable statistics.
    However, it's worth noting that achieving a negative FIP over a significant period of time would be extremely rare and would require exceptional performance. Negative FIP values are more commonly seen in small sample sizes or limited playing time. FIP is just one metric used to evaluate a pitcher's performance, and it is important to consider other factors, such as the pitcher's overall effectiveness and the context in which they perform, when assessing their value and contributions to the team.

  • @ABrodPlays
    @ABrodPlays ปีที่แล้ว +11

    Loved the Gen 3 Pokemon fun fact at 30:27

  • @ryandeeken1554
    @ryandeeken1554 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    i like how chris newell got promoted the day before you uploaded this. another case of the foolish premonition

  • @timberrattlers
    @timberrattlers ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Glad to see our guy Edwin Jimenez getting some love!

  • @jsworld8842
    @jsworld8842 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    my favorite foolish bailey vid introduced me to cal raleigh

  • @Whirlpool730
    @Whirlpool730 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Stat line scouting is Bailey’s best Series.

  • @SkilesHasFun
    @SkilesHasFun ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The fact that there are guys in the majors that were born in the 21st century hurts me in a way I can't explain.

  • @henrymattingly1341
    @henrymattingly1341 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Came back to say that Andrew Abbott is in fact, a stud

  • @UWHuskies94
    @UWHuskies94 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Love me some Clase love! Think we’ll see him in a corner OF spot to start next year, assuming there’s not a sharp decline and/or an acquisition by the M’s. Servais seems to love some guys that can “terrorize the base path” and Clase fits

  • @fxalipranti
    @fxalipranti ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I wish for more statline scouting. Maybe my favorite thing to watch

  • @danejurus69
    @danejurus69 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Andrew Abbott is legit in case you haven't seen his ridiculous stats so far in the bigs.

  • @shinra05
    @shinra05 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    hey foolish im pretty news to baseball and this video was awesome

  • @BirdoHermes
    @BirdoHermes ปีที่แล้ว +26

    Man that Andrew Abbott. He's the kind of guy who walks into a room his FIP has already been there for two minutes.
    But I'm just sayin his girlfriend is a 6 at best

  • @Ian00003
    @Ian00003 ปีที่แล้ว

    19:01 the Altuve comp is right there. Altuve has never walked much but was a high contact, stolen base guy.

  • @ethanknifsend9775
    @ethanknifsend9775 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    "That's how many pokemon there were after three generations" is a wild thing to pull outta your pocket in regards to Mr. Blake Adams

  • @connor4tnr123
    @connor4tnr123 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Only took 5 weeks for this video to age beautifully, abbott just went 7.2 12 K’s and didnt allow a run til his final batter took him deep. Andrew abbott is nuts

  • @owenlefkowicz
    @owenlefkowicz ปีที่แล้ว

    2 former Hoos on this squad. Abbott and Newell. Studs.

  • @walterjohnsonisthegoat8356
    @walterjohnsonisthegoat8356 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hey foolish, me again. Walter Johnson might not have a negative FIP, but he is the goat! You should make a video on him. Thank you

  • @noahschroder2077
    @noahschroder2077 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    4 starts in the big leagues and Abbott has allowed 3 runs with a 1.5 bWAR for the Reds

  • @defn0tjake
    @defn0tjake ปีที่แล้ว

    There's a guy on the Mariners subreddit who posts MiLB prospect stats, and every time I see Clase it seems like he's getting on base 2-3 times a game, stealing a base or two, and scoring runs on top of that. Real electric player, can't wait for him to break into the majors.

  • @Crispy44652
    @Crispy44652 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Look into Chase Petty. Vastly underrated.

  • @poocrafter2
    @poocrafter2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Clase bulked up by adding some muscle mass this offseason and it's shown so far with his increased power. If his power is fully real now he could honestly be a 25-30 HR and with that top tier speed he could have 40-50 SB while also playing great defense. Some in the Mariners fan base feel he's playing over his head by a lot and so he should be traded now when he's at his most value, but I feel like this is who he really is as a player.

  • @baileysmith4744
    @baileysmith4744 ปีที่แล้ว

    Ben Lively is a beautiful man with a nice statcast page and a nice 2023 statline on baseball reference

  • @DT-xw9rr
    @DT-xw9rr ปีที่แล้ว

    I was gonna pick my kid up from school but i saw Bailey dropped a new video so they'll just have to wait

  • @josephbrown99
    @josephbrown99 ปีที่แล้ว

    Bailey you should make a video where you talk about the effects of robot umpires in MiLB

  • @2lliott
    @2lliott ปีที่แล้ว

    two UVA teammates here with Abbott and Newell pretty cool

  • @cleanshowcases7752
    @cleanshowcases7752 ปีที่แล้ว

    Brent Headrick! Dude got pulled up briefly for the Twins this year, K'd 12 in 8 innings. He's been unlucky with the HR ball, but he has great upside. Outside the top 120 prospects overall but 20th in the Twins org. Absolutely disgusting splitter and slider, made Rafael Devers take a look at the catcher and laugh about it.

  • @Spiffffff
    @Spiffffff ปีที่แล้ว +4

    David Hamilton being number 27 in the sox system just goes to show how much their farm has improved the last few years.

  • @elock
    @elock ปีที่แล้ว +2

    I hate FIP so much. 'Oh Jim Palmer wasn't good because he pitched to contact because he had one of the best defensive teams ever behind him. He should have struck everyone out instead.' It has value if a guy is on a terrible team and you have a good team and are wondering if he was hurt by being surrounded by stone hand guys but is not a good measure on if a guy is good.

  • @timholt3449
    @timholt3449 ปีที่แล้ว

    You hear about these prospects from foolish baseball’s statline scouting, I hear about these prospects in OOTP future amateur drafts, we are not the same

  • @nathanhuguley4385
    @nathanhuguley4385 ปีที่แล้ว

    Caleb Durbin unironically is number one in my heart. I was devastated when the Braves traded him. Hope you’re right about him!

  • @MrGorillaspam
    @MrGorillaspam ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I had a OOTP sim where Elly De La Cruz hit 968 MLB homers, clearly it has been foretold...

  • @devinpettus9262
    @devinpettus9262 ปีที่แล้ว

    Have you looked into the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan? He's top 5 in nearly every important stat for pitchers in the minors

  • @NateDawg6
    @NateDawg6 ปีที่แล้ว

    You deserve millions of subs

  • @Barista.Nathan
    @Barista.Nathan ปีที่แล้ว

    25:49 Adael Amador sighting!

  • @timberwolvesenthusiast8014
    @timberwolvesenthusiast8014 ปีที่แล้ว

    Fun fact- statline scouting is what introduced me to roansy contreras

  • @ButterflyBlood
    @ButterflyBlood ปีที่แล้ว +2

    FIP is my least favorite stat there is. Maybe it's because my fantasy league uses it and crush pitchers for quality starts with just 3 solo homers allowed, but also soft contact doesn't matter to it at all; as if strikeouts are all that. So it can hardly be called a reliable metric of quality pitching. Not saying I put ZERO stock in it obviously.

  • @JayTemple
    @JayTemple ปีที่แล้ว

    The fact that you can have a negative FIP shows that the way they normalize it is broken. A better solution than subtracting a constant to make it match the league ERA is to multiply by a constant for the same result.

  • @whereisspacebar2991
    @whereisspacebar2991 ปีที่แล้ว

    30:31 I dunno what this says about me but I thought the exact same thing.

  • @facomori3110
    @facomori3110 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Jasson Domínguez...the eternal Prospect.

    • @evantiesman4165
      @evantiesman4165 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I mean they signed him at like 16 and he’s only 20, which is a pretty typical amount of time for an international signee to remain a prospect. It wouldn’t be abnormal if he didn’t debut in the majors until he was like 22 or 23

  • @Weangered
    @Weangered ปีที่แล้ว

    Abbott has been pretty solid since

  • @flighttime6225
    @flighttime6225 ปีที่แล้ว

    Clase had a really bad first week of AA. Excluding that week he’s been close to as good as A+.
    Also he was only a left handed hitter when we signed him and picked back up switch hitting a few years ago. He has been dominating as a RHH this year now.

  • @ZachAttack550
    @ZachAttack550 ปีที่แล้ว

    The intro has me rolling 😂🤣

  • @Barista.Nathan
    @Barista.Nathan ปีที่แล้ว

    I did some looking around for you, and it doesn't appear that there's any information on Edwin Jimenez even among Spanish language Publications.
    I found a report of minor league signings from a Panamanian report, and all it had was similar information about him being signed without any context. It's possible that the publication they may have done the reporting on it was a local Venezuelan report, many of which don't get digitally published.

  • @harysrodriguez9608
    @harysrodriguez9608 ปีที่แล้ว

    If i was pitching i'd be in the cy young race. I throw gas fella.

  • @alexluckhaupt2548
    @alexluckhaupt2548 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    If the Reds ownership was actually willing to spend money they would have such a bright future

  • @crxzyfnn9300
    @crxzyfnn9300 ปีที่แล้ว

    Please do an episode on the 2023 STL cardinals

  • @duckhax3470
    @duckhax3470 ปีที่แล้ว

    Where is the Spencer Horwitz love at?

  • @TheLuiscelaya
    @TheLuiscelaya ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Another Padres prospect that Preller will prop to trade at the deadline for a regressing all star for half a season just for that prospect to rake with that new team for years to come
    (I’m looking at you Jack Suwinski)

  • @cosmoid
    @cosmoid ปีที่แล้ว

    Jonatan Clase better be in this video

  • @tucker4pf
    @tucker4pf ปีที่แล้ว

    as a reds fan we either trade andrew and he becomes amazing or we just never call him up and he’s underwhelming when we do, no in between

  • @shawnloon
    @shawnloon ปีที่แล้ว +1

    OOTP content coming soon??

  • @ethrek
    @ethrek ปีที่แล้ว

    elly de la cruz mentioned, automatic like

  • @jmichaelstaph7819
    @jmichaelstaph7819 ปีที่แล้ว

    Take a look at Yanquiel Fernandez next time bailey! Crazy underrated

  • @skalty9868
    @skalty9868 ปีที่แล้ว

    Remember seeing a fellow Mariners fan call Jonatan Clase “switch hitting Ricky Henderson”

    • @Robertstevens11567
      @Robertstevens11567 ปีที่แล้ว

      Whenever there is an 80 speed guy you gotta name drop Ricky

  • @codyh9175
    @codyh9175 ปีที่แล้ว

    Must be a video about Madison Bumgarner

  • @its-dg2987
    @its-dg2987 ปีที่แล้ว

    Before I watch this please tell me you mention Ignacio Alvarez 🥺

    • @cryinglightning9172
      @cryinglightning9172 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Nacho has come back down to earth a bit over the past couple of weeks. Hoping he starts driving the ball at some point.

  • @CadChamberlain
    @CadChamberlain ปีที่แล้ว

    Gavin Williams supremacy

  • @MrVrob8
    @MrVrob8 ปีที่แล้ว

    The pretty girlfriend bit gets me every time.

  • @GasMasterson
    @GasMasterson ปีที่แล้ว

    Faced Abbott in high school lmfao that shit was always miserable

  • @swisscheese6456
    @swisscheese6456 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I WANT YORDANY DE LOS SANTOS PROPAGANDA BAILEY I WANT IT

  • @Legault397
    @Legault397 ปีที่แล้ว

    I hate that they're testing the pre-tacked ball in AA. I don't hate it being tested in affiliated ball instead of the Atlantic League but they should at least do it at A/A+ level instead. So many major leaguers start the year in AA and make it to the majors before the year ends, sometimes without even touching AAA, that using a ball that is that profoundly different really hurts both teams and prospects much more than it would at a lower level.

    • @wiguy94
      @wiguy94 ปีที่แล้ว

      From my understanding they are doing it in AA (Southern League only) because that’s the lowest level using the MLB ball. AA, AAA, MLB use the same type of ball (outside of Southern League which is using the tacky version) while A, A+ use a different minor league baseball.

  • @chris__pollack
    @chris__pollack ปีที่แล้ว

    Dodgerzzz

  • @CadChamberlain
    @CadChamberlain ปีที่แล้ว

    this video has a negative xFrameRate

  • @chasemetzger8696
    @chasemetzger8696 ปีที่แล้ว

    👍

  • @TeamGreenHQ
    @TeamGreenHQ ปีที่แล้ว

    Speak of the devil, Abbott is on his way up to start this week.

  • @financecarter
    @financecarter ปีที่แล้ว

    Aliendo has a 40 power grade and bad numbers historically… I don’t know if he’s playing in an elementary school field or on the juice but something just isn’t adding up

  • @obamaphone
    @obamaphone ปีที่แล้ว

    Respect and love your craft but please more MLB content please.

  • @andrewcochrane2798
    @andrewcochrane2798 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hey, can you keep it down Bailey? I’m trying to watch something.

  • @HBTSO
    @HBTSO ปีที่แล้ว

    Aj smith shaver is a guy

  • @PYahWeh
    @PYahWeh ปีที่แล้ว

    I KNOW you listen to Kanye West.