A couple things I got wrong * This is A.J. Smith Shawver's 2nd FULL pro season, not first * Accidentally said Nathan Martorella was a Rockie rather than Padre once
Andrew Abbott is insane. As a reds fan I am pump to see him pitch tomorrow. His stuff is so good and can’t wait for him to get the respect he deserves in the majors
@@victorjensen2858 Ben is right, the Batting Park Factor on Polar Park is 108.564, which is like +2 to +3 on Coors. It's the local geography making a wind tunnel over it; on most days the wind over the park goes straight out, and on much less frequent days it comes in. Recently Bobby Dalbec hit a 515' home run to center-left where the wind seems to be strongest. But David Hamilton is actually fast as hell and a consistent offensive presence (Source: Go to games regularly). Sadly that monster hit did not get to the trains :(
Great content… I’m an old guy and don’t know how to use all the sabermetrics. I need somebody like you to do the heavy lifting for me, thanks But I really do love it when somebody who was drafted in the later round, hacks their way up to the Biggs. My Giants just promoted Ryan Walker. 31st rounder and wasn’t on anybody’s list. 27 year old rookie got his first win, kudos to him. It’s a beautiful thing.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a metric in baseball that measures a pitcher's effectiveness in terms of outcomes directly controlled by the pitcher, such as strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. FIP is calculated using a formula that aims to remove the impact of defense and luck on a pitcher's performance. In theory, it is possible for a pitcher to have a negative FIP. A negative FIP indicates that the pitcher's performance in the controlled aspects of the game (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs) has been exceptionally good, resulting in fewer expected runs allowed than the league average. This could be achieved through a high number of strikeouts, a low number of walks and home runs allowed, and other favorable statistics. However, it's worth noting that achieving a negative FIP over a significant period of time would be extremely rare and would require exceptional performance. Negative FIP values are more commonly seen in small sample sizes or limited playing time. FIP is just one metric used to evaluate a pitcher's performance, and it is important to consider other factors, such as the pitcher's overall effectiveness and the context in which they perform, when assessing their value and contributions to the team.
Love me some Clase love! Think we’ll see him in a corner OF spot to start next year, assuming there’s not a sharp decline and/or an acquisition by the M’s. Servais seems to love some guys that can “terrorize the base path” and Clase fits
Man that Andrew Abbott. He's the kind of guy who walks into a room his FIP has already been there for two minutes. But I'm just sayin his girlfriend is a 6 at best
Only took 5 weeks for this video to age beautifully, abbott just went 7.2 12 K’s and didnt allow a run til his final batter took him deep. Andrew abbott is nuts
There's a guy on the Mariners subreddit who posts MiLB prospect stats, and every time I see Clase it seems like he's getting on base 2-3 times a game, stealing a base or two, and scoring runs on top of that. Real electric player, can't wait for him to break into the majors.
Clase bulked up by adding some muscle mass this offseason and it's shown so far with his increased power. If his power is fully real now he could honestly be a 25-30 HR and with that top tier speed he could have 40-50 SB while also playing great defense. Some in the Mariners fan base feel he's playing over his head by a lot and so he should be traded now when he's at his most value, but I feel like this is who he really is as a player.
Brent Headrick! Dude got pulled up briefly for the Twins this year, K'd 12 in 8 innings. He's been unlucky with the HR ball, but he has great upside. Outside the top 120 prospects overall but 20th in the Twins org. Absolutely disgusting splitter and slider, made Rafael Devers take a look at the catcher and laugh about it.
I hate FIP so much. 'Oh Jim Palmer wasn't good because he pitched to contact because he had one of the best defensive teams ever behind him. He should have struck everyone out instead.' It has value if a guy is on a terrible team and you have a good team and are wondering if he was hurt by being surrounded by stone hand guys but is not a good measure on if a guy is good.
You hear about these prospects from foolish baseball’s statline scouting, I hear about these prospects in OOTP future amateur drafts, we are not the same
FIP is my least favorite stat there is. Maybe it's because my fantasy league uses it and crush pitchers for quality starts with just 3 solo homers allowed, but also soft contact doesn't matter to it at all; as if strikeouts are all that. So it can hardly be called a reliable metric of quality pitching. Not saying I put ZERO stock in it obviously.
The fact that you can have a negative FIP shows that the way they normalize it is broken. A better solution than subtracting a constant to make it match the league ERA is to multiply by a constant for the same result.
I mean they signed him at like 16 and he’s only 20, which is a pretty typical amount of time for an international signee to remain a prospect. It wouldn’t be abnormal if he didn’t debut in the majors until he was like 22 or 23
Clase had a really bad first week of AA. Excluding that week he’s been close to as good as A+. Also he was only a left handed hitter when we signed him and picked back up switch hitting a few years ago. He has been dominating as a RHH this year now.
I did some looking around for you, and it doesn't appear that there's any information on Edwin Jimenez even among Spanish language Publications. I found a report of minor league signings from a Panamanian report, and all it had was similar information about him being signed without any context. It's possible that the publication they may have done the reporting on it was a local Venezuelan report, many of which don't get digitally published.
Another Padres prospect that Preller will prop to trade at the deadline for a regressing all star for half a season just for that prospect to rake with that new team for years to come (I’m looking at you Jack Suwinski)
I hate that they're testing the pre-tacked ball in AA. I don't hate it being tested in affiliated ball instead of the Atlantic League but they should at least do it at A/A+ level instead. So many major leaguers start the year in AA and make it to the majors before the year ends, sometimes without even touching AAA, that using a ball that is that profoundly different really hurts both teams and prospects much more than it would at a lower level.
From my understanding they are doing it in AA (Southern League only) because that’s the lowest level using the MLB ball. AA, AAA, MLB use the same type of ball (outside of Southern League which is using the tacky version) while A, A+ use a different minor league baseball.
Aliendo has a 40 power grade and bad numbers historically… I don’t know if he’s playing in an elementary school field or on the juice but something just isn’t adding up
A couple things I got wrong
* This is A.J. Smith Shawver's 2nd FULL pro season, not first
* Accidentally said Nathan Martorella was a Rockie rather than Padre once
If I was an MLB scout I would evaluate players solely on how good they look in stirrups
I would strictly look at how hot their girlfriend is
If you look good, you play good
@@_mokaleek_If you play good, they pay good
Andrew Abbott is insane. As a reds fan I am pump to see him pitch tomorrow. His stuff is so good and can’t wait for him to get the respect he deserves in the majors
Abbott just shoved, Bailey never misses
re: David Hamilton's wRC+, Polar Park in Worcester makes Coors Field look pitcher-friendly
Jesus, what about the park makes it so good for hitters?
Hoooooold up *what*
Short fences, and there’s a bizarre jet stream there that seems to always make the wind blow out hard. Not smart enough to have a better explanation
@@victorjensen2858 Ben is right, the Batting Park Factor on Polar Park is 108.564, which is like +2 to +3 on Coors. It's the local geography making a wind tunnel over it; on most days the wind over the park goes straight out, and on much less frequent days it comes in. Recently Bobby Dalbec hit a 515' home run to center-left where the wind seems to be strongest. But David Hamilton is actually fast as hell and a consistent offensive presence (Source: Go to games regularly). Sadly that monster hit did not get to the trains :(
Great content… I’m an old guy and don’t know how to use all the sabermetrics. I need somebody like you to do the heavy lifting for me, thanks
But I really do love it when somebody who was drafted in the later round, hacks their way up to the Biggs. My Giants just promoted Ryan Walker. 31st rounder and wasn’t on anybody’s list. 27 year old rookie got his first win, kudos to him. It’s a beautiful thing.
This is the best series. Don’t ever stop.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a metric in baseball that measures a pitcher's effectiveness in terms of outcomes directly controlled by the pitcher, such as strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. FIP is calculated using a formula that aims to remove the impact of defense and luck on a pitcher's performance.
In theory, it is possible for a pitcher to have a negative FIP. A negative FIP indicates that the pitcher's performance in the controlled aspects of the game (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs) has been exceptionally good, resulting in fewer expected runs allowed than the league average. This could be achieved through a high number of strikeouts, a low number of walks and home runs allowed, and other favorable statistics.
However, it's worth noting that achieving a negative FIP over a significant period of time would be extremely rare and would require exceptional performance. Negative FIP values are more commonly seen in small sample sizes or limited playing time. FIP is just one metric used to evaluate a pitcher's performance, and it is important to consider other factors, such as the pitcher's overall effectiveness and the context in which they perform, when assessing their value and contributions to the team.
Loved the Gen 3 Pokemon fun fact at 30:27
i like how chris newell got promoted the day before you uploaded this. another case of the foolish premonition
Glad to see our guy Edwin Jimenez getting some love!
my favorite foolish bailey vid introduced me to cal raleigh
Stat line scouting is Bailey’s best Series.
The fact that there are guys in the majors that were born in the 21st century hurts me in a way I can't explain.
Came back to say that Andrew Abbott is in fact, a stud
Love me some Clase love! Think we’ll see him in a corner OF spot to start next year, assuming there’s not a sharp decline and/or an acquisition by the M’s. Servais seems to love some guys that can “terrorize the base path” and Clase fits
I wish for more statline scouting. Maybe my favorite thing to watch
Andrew Abbott is legit in case you haven't seen his ridiculous stats so far in the bigs.
hey foolish im pretty news to baseball and this video was awesome
Man that Andrew Abbott. He's the kind of guy who walks into a room his FIP has already been there for two minutes.
But I'm just sayin his girlfriend is a 6 at best
19:01 the Altuve comp is right there. Altuve has never walked much but was a high contact, stolen base guy.
"That's how many pokemon there were after three generations" is a wild thing to pull outta your pocket in regards to Mr. Blake Adams
Only took 5 weeks for this video to age beautifully, abbott just went 7.2 12 K’s and didnt allow a run til his final batter took him deep. Andrew abbott is nuts
2 former Hoos on this squad. Abbott and Newell. Studs.
Hey foolish, me again. Walter Johnson might not have a negative FIP, but he is the goat! You should make a video on him. Thank you
4 starts in the big leagues and Abbott has allowed 3 runs with a 1.5 bWAR for the Reds
There's a guy on the Mariners subreddit who posts MiLB prospect stats, and every time I see Clase it seems like he's getting on base 2-3 times a game, stealing a base or two, and scoring runs on top of that. Real electric player, can't wait for him to break into the majors.
Look into Chase Petty. Vastly underrated.
Clase bulked up by adding some muscle mass this offseason and it's shown so far with his increased power. If his power is fully real now he could honestly be a 25-30 HR and with that top tier speed he could have 40-50 SB while also playing great defense. Some in the Mariners fan base feel he's playing over his head by a lot and so he should be traded now when he's at his most value, but I feel like this is who he really is as a player.
Ben Lively is a beautiful man with a nice statcast page and a nice 2023 statline on baseball reference
I was gonna pick my kid up from school but i saw Bailey dropped a new video so they'll just have to wait
Bailey you should make a video where you talk about the effects of robot umpires in MiLB
two UVA teammates here with Abbott and Newell pretty cool
Brent Headrick! Dude got pulled up briefly for the Twins this year, K'd 12 in 8 innings. He's been unlucky with the HR ball, but he has great upside. Outside the top 120 prospects overall but 20th in the Twins org. Absolutely disgusting splitter and slider, made Rafael Devers take a look at the catcher and laugh about it.
David Hamilton being number 27 in the sox system just goes to show how much their farm has improved the last few years.
I hate FIP so much. 'Oh Jim Palmer wasn't good because he pitched to contact because he had one of the best defensive teams ever behind him. He should have struck everyone out instead.' It has value if a guy is on a terrible team and you have a good team and are wondering if he was hurt by being surrounded by stone hand guys but is not a good measure on if a guy is good.
*"stone hand guys"*
You hear about these prospects from foolish baseball’s statline scouting, I hear about these prospects in OOTP future amateur drafts, we are not the same
Caleb Durbin unironically is number one in my heart. I was devastated when the Braves traded him. Hope you’re right about him!
I had a OOTP sim where Elly De La Cruz hit 968 MLB homers, clearly it has been foretold...
Have you looked into the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan? He's top 5 in nearly every important stat for pitchers in the minors
You deserve millions of subs
25:49 Adael Amador sighting!
Fun fact- statline scouting is what introduced me to roansy contreras
FIP is my least favorite stat there is. Maybe it's because my fantasy league uses it and crush pitchers for quality starts with just 3 solo homers allowed, but also soft contact doesn't matter to it at all; as if strikeouts are all that. So it can hardly be called a reliable metric of quality pitching. Not saying I put ZERO stock in it obviously.
The fact that you can have a negative FIP shows that the way they normalize it is broken. A better solution than subtracting a constant to make it match the league ERA is to multiply by a constant for the same result.
30:31 I dunno what this says about me but I thought the exact same thing.
Jasson Domínguez...the eternal Prospect.
I mean they signed him at like 16 and he’s only 20, which is a pretty typical amount of time for an international signee to remain a prospect. It wouldn’t be abnormal if he didn’t debut in the majors until he was like 22 or 23
Abbott has been pretty solid since
Clase had a really bad first week of AA. Excluding that week he’s been close to as good as A+.
Also he was only a left handed hitter when we signed him and picked back up switch hitting a few years ago. He has been dominating as a RHH this year now.
The intro has me rolling 😂🤣
I did some looking around for you, and it doesn't appear that there's any information on Edwin Jimenez even among Spanish language Publications.
I found a report of minor league signings from a Panamanian report, and all it had was similar information about him being signed without any context. It's possible that the publication they may have done the reporting on it was a local Venezuelan report, many of which don't get digitally published.
If i was pitching i'd be in the cy young race. I throw gas fella.
If the Reds ownership was actually willing to spend money they would have such a bright future
Please do an episode on the 2023 STL cardinals
Where is the Spencer Horwitz love at?
Another Padres prospect that Preller will prop to trade at the deadline for a regressing all star for half a season just for that prospect to rake with that new team for years to come
(I’m looking at you Jack Suwinski)
Jonatan Clase better be in this video
as a reds fan we either trade andrew and he becomes amazing or we just never call him up and he’s underwhelming when we do, no in between
OOTP content coming soon??
elly de la cruz mentioned, automatic like
Take a look at Yanquiel Fernandez next time bailey! Crazy underrated
Remember seeing a fellow Mariners fan call Jonatan Clase “switch hitting Ricky Henderson”
Whenever there is an 80 speed guy you gotta name drop Ricky
Must be a video about Madison Bumgarner
Before I watch this please tell me you mention Ignacio Alvarez 🥺
Nacho has come back down to earth a bit over the past couple of weeks. Hoping he starts driving the ball at some point.
Gavin Williams supremacy
The pretty girlfriend bit gets me every time.
Faced Abbott in high school lmfao that shit was always miserable
I WANT YORDANY DE LOS SANTOS PROPAGANDA BAILEY I WANT IT
I hate that they're testing the pre-tacked ball in AA. I don't hate it being tested in affiliated ball instead of the Atlantic League but they should at least do it at A/A+ level instead. So many major leaguers start the year in AA and make it to the majors before the year ends, sometimes without even touching AAA, that using a ball that is that profoundly different really hurts both teams and prospects much more than it would at a lower level.
From my understanding they are doing it in AA (Southern League only) because that’s the lowest level using the MLB ball. AA, AAA, MLB use the same type of ball (outside of Southern League which is using the tacky version) while A, A+ use a different minor league baseball.
Dodgerzzz
this video has a negative xFrameRate
👍
Speak of the devil, Abbott is on his way up to start this week.
Aliendo has a 40 power grade and bad numbers historically… I don’t know if he’s playing in an elementary school field or on the juice but something just isn’t adding up
Respect and love your craft but please more MLB content please.
Hey, can you keep it down Bailey? I’m trying to watch something.
Aj smith shaver is a guy
I KNOW you listen to Kanye West.