Great job on bringing the odds to the forefront of getting a specific rarity but for players who want to play meta decks what are the odds of pulling any pikachu ex.
So we would have to add the chance of a specific 4D, specific 3S, specific 2S and specific crown rare as Pikachu ex can show in all 4 rarities. In 4th position it is a sum of 0.62%, and 5th position 2.47%. The chance to appear at least once in a pack (either 4th, 5th, or both positions) AND rare pack probabilities included, is 3.1%, or rather, 1 in every 32 packs of Genetic Apex Pikachu.
I've been rolling on Pikachu/Charizard packs for trainer full arts (Erika, Misty, Sabrina) and Pikachu's immersive art. After opening 235 packs, I didn't get any of these but I got 4 crown rares (0 god packs, no rerolls). Luck is weird sometimes.
just pulled a god pack with full art erika, full art starmie EX, 2 full art machamp ex, and full art Charmander. Havent opened up anywhere near 2000 packs
Are these probables the same for all the different expansions or will they differ with new expansions? So we know that all of this it’ll be useful also for the next expansions they’ll get out.
Incredibly informative video! Thank you very much for sharing your calculations with us, it does help a lot understanding which choices to do, and how much things cost on average. Keep up the good work! ^_^
Shouldn't the combined odds for normal and rare packs go down (as compared for just normal packs) for the diamond cards since they don't appear in the rare packs?
I would recommend pack points be used towards the end of this generation of cards when you know what you're still missing if you're just a collector. If you need something for deck building right now, then that's a different story.
The combined odds is the combination of probability of a rarity appearing in just 4th position, just 5th position, and in both positions. Including the probability of rare pack. So in fact it's more accurate to say pull rate of "at least once". For simplicity I've said "one in every".
@@Bropeningsyes, i found my mistake, it is probability of 4th plus of 5th minus p of 4th and 5th and not everything sum up ( p(4th) + p(5th) + p(4th and 5th))
It's still a work in progress right now as we're still analyzing more of the data, so no plans to make public yet. If you are after a specific data/result you can come to my discord and ask me there. We may be able to provide some answers.
My account is similar to yours! Free to play because my Google play account is still a USA one & i pulled a god pack as well like yours, expect with 2 charizard instead of 2 Mewtwo. However, i also have pulled 2 copies of immersive Mewtwo in separate packs. For a free to play account, i am pretty lucky 😅
Of course the first less then 1% card (that isnt intro rigged) I get is vaporeon. Now I need the other 2 eeveelutions (I got the eevee art in my first 10 pack)
I'm glad you got the idea of low rate + big pool of 2 stars! Watch my how to get got pack wonder pick videos for greater chances of Erika. There are Erika god pack hosts right now.
Great videos, no other content creator researches this stuff. I guess when you reroll your account, you look for 2 star cards instead of 3 stars? Or maybe the other way round regarding wonder picks? I truly cannot decide what to do with the data though
I would recommend looking for crown rares (if possible) as they are the rarest and cannot be found by WP. 3 Star is the minimum I would settle for as also not available on WP.
on the new account, in 30 packs, i got sabrina 2 star and charizard immersive, thats the best i can pull, the other is decent full art and some ex.. does that mean i shouldve stop at there? tbh, sabrina looks so cool...
@RvnFromJubilife I think that's a decent pick. I've also started with a char, pika. mew2 immersive 3 card account but can't decide between a 3 fullart trainer(Koga, Broc, Giov) one
Do you think it would be better to save pokegold and use it only for wonder picks where you are guaranteed 1/5 or sometimes 2/5 for a hit. You also get to choose the card pool. Or would it be better to use poke gold to just straight up open packs?
Poke gold aside, pack openings hold the most value when a new set is introduced at the beginning because almost every card you pull is essentially a new card for dex completion or even deck building. You don't want to WP a card first and then find out you get it anyway via packs. In contrast, if you are down to 1 last missing card in the dex/deck, it's best to use WP. After all it's 20% chance of success as opposed to random jabs at a 1 in 17 or 1 in 470 chance (depending on what you're missing) from packs.
@@Bropenings Okay this perfectly understands my struggle lol I have been using pokegold for packs to unlock my last 10 or so cards I need for the set but keep getting dupes or dud packs. Pokegold is better used on packs when new sets release, but better for wonder picks when trying to unlock a few specific cards; makes sense thanks! If you have the time maybe you could make a graph curve to show when the optimal time to switch from packs to WP if thats even a feasible analysis to make. edit: After contemplating this; it would very much depend on which cards were needed to complete the set.. correct?
Wanna trade my crown m2 for 2 moltres EX damn it... waiting for the possibility of trading I found everything I need for the fire deck, but moltres ex doesn't drop :
So I'm not 100% sure, but I thought I saw a crown rare as a wonder pick and obviously I didn't get it, the pack cost was 4 and it had a yellow background, I didn't pay close attention. It was from a registered friend so maybe that makes it possible? Or was I just imagining...
We are only assuming from lack of evidence that 3 star and crown rare cannot show on Wonder Pick. If you've seen it or have proof please send it my way. You can find me in my Discord.
@@Bropenings oh okay so I'm probably wrong and it was an alt art that in quick glance looked like a crown rare... I did read in the tips menu in the game that some rarities do not appear in wonder picks so I assume ur right
@kp6137 although imo it's better to just try to get the crown rare within first 10-20 packs. That still saves you 30 packs unopened relative to your strategy if you get the crown rare at the 50th pack.
It just shows them how broken it actually is. The games rates are complete trash. I've rerolled way too many times, and still haven't even seen a Pika EX lmao (yes I'm opening Pika packs)
@@Bropenings what im saying is that each persons RNG is tied to some unknown aspect of their account. So you could pull 1000 packs and the data you got from it would only be useful to your account and knowing your own hit rates. My account will have totally different hit rates. Kind of like how in certain mainline games youre trainer id sets your shiny rate, or how certain trainer id will never see the secret island in ORAS.
Nice account. I’ve also gotten quite lucky. I have a crown rare, all three immersives and some nice full arts. Today I even pulled a second Zard immersive all f2p and I haven’t rerolled my account (mainly because I was too lazy)
That would be... a lot. Will need an even bigger formula/spreadsheet to calculate that. Don't think I'm equipped to answer that... yet. Wonder pick and pack points also affect the outcome.
I can not guarantee this satisfying you. Because it also depend on the deck and luck. Last month I only open charizard pack, I want to complete charizard EX deck from mission. Full month = 2 x 30 = 60. Note : My first choice deck water with articuno EX, so a full month just for complete charizard EX deck. I not include wonder because my wonder pack for complete koga team.
in your videos as ur speaking it sounds like you are trying to present something to the audience with an up n down tone.. but personaly I think its so much better if u can just speak like its person to a person... just like how u would speak to someone who's infront of u
My app was by default in Portuguese and then I changed it to English. Because of this, I have most of the cards in English, but some of them in Portuguese
![[#2024MAMA] G-DRAGON - 무제(Untitled, 2014)+POWER+HOME SWEET HOME+뱅뱅뱅+FANTASTIC BABY | Mnet 241123 방송](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ox29z5Nf1Uk/mqdefault.jpg)
Referenced card list links:
www.serebii.net/tcgpocket/geneticapex/
ptcgp.raenonx.cc/en/card
Great job on bringing the odds to the forefront of getting a specific rarity but for players who want to play meta decks what are the odds of pulling any pikachu ex.
So we would have to add the chance of a specific 4D, specific 3S, specific 2S and specific crown rare as Pikachu ex can show in all 4 rarities. In 4th position it is a sum of 0.62%, and 5th position 2.47%.
The chance to appear at least once in a pack (either 4th, 5th, or both positions) AND rare pack probabilities included, is 3.1%, or rather, 1 in every 32 packs of Genetic Apex Pikachu.
I knew it, I knew 4 diamond were rarer than 1 star but wasn’t sure if my math was correct
4 diamond as a whole rarity is rarer than 1 star. 4 diamond specific card is slightly more common than 1 star however.
Im saving my pack points for either the 2 star sabrina or giovanni, since I will be using them in almost every deck
This guys putting in the work and bringing transparency
I've been rolling on Pikachu/Charizard packs for trainer full arts (Erika, Misty, Sabrina) and Pikachu's immersive art. After opening 235 packs, I didn't get any of these but I got 4 crown rares (0 god packs, no rerolls). Luck is weird sometimes.
THIS VIDEO IS UNDERATED, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK
1500 packs in and still no crown rares on my account :(
At 1500 packs you're beyond the expected odds of seeing 3 crown rares. But that is the nature of rng.
@@Bropeningsyou aren’t kidding lol, got my first crown rare at 2k 😭
just pulled a god pack with full art erika, full art starmie EX, 2 full art machamp ex, and full art Charmander. Havent opened up anywhere near 2000 packs
Most helpful TCG Pocket video on the internet. Thank you sir.
Are these probables the same for all the different expansions or will they differ with new expansions?
So we know that all of this it’ll be useful also for the next expansions they’ll get out.
They might differ. We won't know until they come. I'll make another video about it when they release.
Ok thanks very much. Hope they won’t change… 🤞🏻🙏🏻
If so I’ll be eager to see your new video. 💪🏻
Incredibly informative video! Thank you very much for sharing your calculations with us, it does help a lot understanding which choices to do, and how much things cost on average.
Keep up the good work! ^_^
You're welcome. I'm planning more of this kind of content for the future.
@@Bropenings That's great! If you don't mind, I'll be sharing it around ;D
I got extremely lucky and got both Mewtwo Crown Card and Pikachu Crown Card within my first 50 (total) cards
Shouldn't the combined odds for normal and rare packs go down (as compared for just normal packs) for the diamond cards since they don't appear in the rare packs?
It does, but extremely small difference. The main difference caused by the existence of the 0.05% rare packs is on 2 star and crown cards.
I can say its my 35th reroll and im often getting the immersive ones after 25th to 35 i got the 5times and rerolling after beginner mission
That makes sense as i made two accounts and the account where i opened the mewtwo packs. i got waaay more hits.
what do you think is a sensible way to spend on the game if you just want strong decks and most of the EX cards
Seems premium pass is the way to go as per most games. I'll be doing a value analysis soon.
so should we use pack point to get trainer cards or na? Cause Sabrina, Giovani, Misty and Blaine are pretty ,uch stable
I would recommend pack points be used towards the end of this generation of cards when you know what you're still missing if you're just a collector.
If you need something for deck building right now, then that's a different story.
@ I’m trying to build a Starmie ex deck and Misty pretty critical, so spending dust would be useful to help get deck going?
I like the number videos for pocket tcg!
Thanks for subbing.
Yes I've been around a long time so I have many different games and content to make.
Can you link the spreadsheet?/ how did you calculated the combined odds for any rarity?
The combined odds is the combination of probability of a rarity appearing in just 4th position, just 5th position, and in both positions. Including the probability of rare pack. So in fact it's more accurate to say pull rate of "at least once". For simplicity I've said "one in every".
There will likely be a calculator coming soon so the spreadsheet won't be necessary.
@@Bropeningsyes, i found my mistake, it is probability of 4th plus of 5th minus p of 4th and 5th and not everything sum up ( p(4th) + p(5th) + p(4th and 5th))
Any chance on making this spreadsheet public? Else I will be making one myself ^^
It's still a work in progress right now as we're still analyzing more of the data, so no plans to make public yet. If you are after a specific data/result you can come to my discord and ask me there. We may be able to provide some answers.
My account is similar to yours! Free to play because my Google play account is still a USA one & i pulled a god pack as well like yours, expect with 2 charizard instead of 2 Mewtwo. However, i also have pulled 2 copies of immersive Mewtwo in separate packs. For a free to play account, i am pretty lucky 😅
Are you able to get your account transferred over to a USA one? I'm a bit confused on how that all works.
Of course the first less then 1% card (that isnt intro rigged) I get is vaporeon.
Now I need the other 2 eeveelutions (I got the eevee art in my first 10 pack)
I see why I don't get get an Special Erika even after trying only charizard.
I'm glad you got the idea of low rate + big pool of 2 stars!
Watch my how to get got pack wonder pick videos for greater chances of Erika. There are Erika god pack hosts right now.
Great videos, no other content creator researches this stuff.
I guess when you reroll your account, you look for 2 star cards instead of 3 stars? Or maybe the other way round regarding wonder picks? I truly cannot decide what to do with the data though
Glad you enjoyed it. Took me many nights of blood sweat and tears to research, verify, interpret and calculate the results.
I would recommend looking for crown rares (if possible) as they are the rarest and cannot be found by WP.
3 Star is the minimum I would settle for as also not available on WP.
on the new account, in 30 packs, i got sabrina 2 star and charizard immersive, thats the best i can pull, the other is decent full art and some ex.. does that mean i shouldve stop at there? tbh, sabrina looks so cool...
@RvnFromJubilife I think that's a decent pick. I've also started with a char, pika. mew2 immersive 3 card account but can't decide between a 3 fullart trainer(Koga, Broc, Giov) one
@RvnFromJubilife the chance of immersive is 1 in 90 packs so you getting it in 30 is not bad.
In a single 10 pull my brother got THREE 0.885 CARDS WHAT THE ACTUAL F*CK IS HIS LUCK
Do you think it would be better to save pokegold and use it only for wonder picks where you are guaranteed 1/5 or sometimes 2/5 for a hit. You also get to choose the card pool. Or would it be better to use poke gold to just straight up open packs?
Poke gold aside, pack openings hold the most value when a new set is introduced at the beginning because almost every card you pull is essentially a new card for dex completion or even deck building.
You don't want to WP a card first and then find out you get it anyway via packs.
In contrast, if you are down to 1 last missing card in the dex/deck, it's best to use WP. After all it's 20% chance of success as opposed to random jabs at a 1 in 17 or 1 in 470 chance (depending on what you're missing) from packs.
@@Bropenings Okay this perfectly understands my struggle lol I have been using pokegold for packs to unlock my last 10 or so cards I need for the set but keep getting dupes or dud packs. Pokegold is better used on packs when new sets release, but better for wonder picks when trying to unlock a few specific cards; makes sense thanks! If you have the time maybe you could make a graph curve to show when the optimal time to switch from packs to WP if thats even a feasible analysis to make.
edit: After contemplating this; it would very much depend on which cards were needed to complete the set.. correct?
So I just pulled the gold crown Charizard EX from a Mewtwo pack in the 3rd slot, what are the odds of that??
1 in 1500 packs to pull the "wrong" artwork crown rare
@ Thanks, I’ve opened about 150 packs since the global launch, very cool. Love your videos!
I've somehow managed to pull 2, and have yet to see a 3 star.
You’re a modern day gangster 😊
what is the probability of pulling a specific 1d card? Afrer 40 mewtwo and 40 pikachu packs, i'm still missing a dratini and a voltorb
Ignoring rare packs that would reduce the probability slightly, it's 5.88% per pack. Or 1 in 17 packs.
I didn't know it was that rare. I got 2 mewto ex crown gold cards in my 6th pack. I just stopped playing since then since it was gonna be an easy game
I got b2b 3-star Charizard, was my 5th and 6th pack in the whole game haha. About 15 packs later got 3-star Mewtwo
That's really good odds
great vid
Wanna trade my crown m2 for 2 moltres EX
damn it... waiting for the possibility of trading
I found everything I need for the fire deck, but moltres ex doesn't drop :
Try wonder pick!
So I'm not 100% sure, but I thought I saw a crown rare as a wonder pick and obviously I didn't get it, the pack cost was 4 and it had a yellow background, I didn't pay close attention. It was from a registered friend so maybe that makes it possible? Or was I just imagining...
For certain it costed 4 wonder points to pick, has anyone had that?
We are only assuming from lack of evidence that 3 star and crown rare cannot show on Wonder Pick. If you've seen it or have proof please send it my way. You can find me in my Discord.
@@Bropenings I do not have proof unfortunately, but do you know if some wonder picks cost 4? Because I definitely had to pay 4
@@KingDuDu101 4 stamina cost is for 2 stars
@@Bropenings oh okay so I'm probably wrong and it was an alt art that in quick glance looked like a crown rare...
I did read in the tips menu in the game that some rarities do not appear in wonder picks so I assume ur right
Somehow Misty is my most pulled card, I have 7 copies 😄
I got a l charzard crown foil from a pikachu pack
I have opened 1200 packs I have the achievement for 1000 opened and didn’t get 1 crown rare yet
Damn I made new accounts for like 12 hours and got 2 crown rares
I have 3k cards already but no crown.. 😑
why i opened 90 packs and dont even get a 2 star
This isn't guarantee, it's an expectation of outcome rates.
Very nice
The number show in table is each pack or each card?
Each pack.
1 in 473 is 1 crown rare per 473 packs opened.
I've got a follow up infographic video coming to show this better! It'll be up soon.
@@Bropenings So estimate can reroll 50 packs each hour then should be able to reroll at least 1 crown rare each day.
@@kp6137 that sounds about right
@kp6137 although imo it's better to just try to get the crown rare within first 10-20 packs. That still saves you 30 packs unopened relative to your strategy if you get the crown rare at the 50th pack.
@@Bropenings That is for reroll 3 times man
1 in 6.4 billion packs will be a rare pack that contains 5 crown rare cards…
Yes
I was able to get two mew two crown 👑 after making accounts for like 12 hours
that's crazy good
I got mewtwo crown fron Pikachu pack
The rng is broken so Im not sure any if this information really matters.
It helps people understand for example how many packs to open or how many times an account needs to reroll to expect a certain card to be pulled.
It just shows them how broken it actually is. The games rates are complete trash. I've rerolled way too many times, and still haven't even seen a Pika EX lmao (yes I'm opening Pika packs)
@@Bropenings what im saying is that each persons RNG is tied to some unknown aspect of their account. So you could pull 1000 packs and the data you got from it would only be useful to your account and knowing your own hit rates. My account will have totally different hit rates. Kind of like how in certain mainline games youre trainer id sets your shiny rate, or how certain trainer id will never see the secret island in ORAS.
Source? @willprintforfood
@@Willprintforfood Source? Is this actually true?
Good video ur face looks like ronald tanur 😳
2:49 - i think you misspelled 'guaranteed'
Thanks. I'll ask the graphic maker to correct that later.
Bro i have 2 crown rare cards of mewtwo and one of pikachu is my account goated
seems good
@ i pulled a god pack 🫡☠️
Wow i just when on a math trip just to see art😂
The best excursion
Crown rare cards rate is just brutal! I have been rerolling since global launch with no luck so far :(
What's interesting is that I have 1 two star, 6 one star, and 7 four diamond cards.
and 13 three diamond in 55 packs and ive gotten 1 onestar from the choosing.
Have you pulled more wonder picks with 4 diamond instead of 1 star?
Regardless there's RNG involved, and 6 vs 7 is a very small sample size.
@@Bropenings no I haven’t. I have only gotten one 1️⃣ star from wonder picks
The rest of my wonder picks have been reg cards
Why did I just start taking notes? lmao
📝
Nice account. I’ve also gotten quite lucky. I have a crown rare, all three immersives and some nice full arts. Today I even pulled a second Zard immersive all f2p and I haven’t rerolled my account (mainly because I was too lazy)
My friend got a god pack and a pack that had immersive mewtwo ex, and I got trash
Reroll your account if it's trash
@ Too late, already got to level 8
I rerolled my account twice and got two immersive mewtwo's. Never rerolling again lmao
Very nice
how many packs would you expect to open to complete the collection?
That would be... a lot. Will need an even bigger formula/spreadsheet to calculate that. Don't think I'm equipped to answer that... yet.
Wonder pick and pack points also affect the outcome.
400 packs
@@randx1075 400 isn't even enough for 1 crown rare 😅
I can not guarantee this satisfying you. Because it also depend on the deck and luck.
Last month I only open charizard pack, I want to complete charizard EX deck from mission.
Full month = 2 x 30 = 60.
Note : My first choice deck water with articuno EX, so a full month just for complete charizard EX deck.
I not include wonder because my wonder pack for complete koga team.
have 2 crown mewtwo lol not paying for anything
What are the odds of pulling 5 crown rares in a god pack? lmao
Already checked the odds ahead of you.
1 in 6.4 billion packs.
@@Bropenings thats insanity💀
Anyone got a good account I can buy???
$4999 final offer
5:50 A rare pack is not like God.
great content but pla just try to speak normally
what's normal?
in your videos as ur speaking it sounds like you are trying to present something to the audience with an up n down tone.. but personaly I think its so much better if u can just speak like its person to a person... just like how u would speak to someone who's infront of u
asian dude spiting statistic facts
me- yes yes, must be true
16:17 i could've sworn i saw someone with 2 different languages of immersive cards on their display, i should've screenshot it 🥲
That can happen if your friend is playing in a different language and you wonder picked their pack.
Although immersive is not available to wonder pick. Perhaps they changed their app settings to another language between opening packs.
My app was by default in Portuguese and then I changed it to English. Because of this, I have most of the cards in English, but some of them in Portuguese