Mr. Musk will start building all the components through Tesla and they will be much, much cheaper than what is on list. What is the cost of the raw materials to make them and the cost of the robots to put them together? Negligible. A few hundred dollars, max. Just like the rest of the company, he will do them from start to finish.
why would it be easier to make bots than a car(ev)? Elon said it himself that every part in optimus is custom made as they do not use pre-made actuators on the market, as well as many other parts in optimus. Bots require incredible precision as even a centimeter off of its tendons or its pivoting joints will casue extreme malfunction due to nature of geometry/topology(sin/cos/ arc/radius etc). think of evry part of optimus as extremely fine and delicate motor input output devices on p or better yet, think of those da vinci surgical robots in hospitals- optimus will require just as much finesse and sensitivty due to its design to mimic human joints in degree of freedom in ROM. If you compare that to tesla ev, that's like comparing manual hammer to a delicate 8 thread overlock computerized embroidery sewing machine Still, even without the said volume for optimus, it'll still be very profitable(but I think elon is right about 25 trillion). No matter the field, including economics and finance, elon knows more than any one of us so it's a bit presumptuous for you to think you know better than elon and to correct him on his own business model / valuation. Remember, he is able to calculate things so much further down the line than any one of us or any wall street analysts.
@@BornFreeFilmsMusk Industries have ALREADY long been the most vertically integrated of all companies which is why suppliers clamber to become as close as equivalent to whichever of Tesla’s internal manufacturing & production processes that 3rd parties may be able to satisfy.
I hope recent advances in Parkinson's diagnosis/treatment/cure materialize soon enough to help you out. I'm considering buying 1-2 Optumi for wife and me.
A great plan! I hope you are somewhat set already or can hold on until 2035 as the early units with the unimaginable demand for them will put them at $250k per. We'll see, there is plenty of competition so price won't be high for too long. My brother in law at 50 was just diagnosed in October. Hang in there and we pray for a major cure.
54:00 Abundance…. Maybe shorter shifts Shorter workweeks More human labor focused on children, schools etc More focus on disaster prevention…. Hopefully society pivots well
One of Walmarts strengths has always been the rapid adoption of technology for logistics. They are very good at it. It would not surprise me if Walmart were an early adopter. UPS could probably replace 90% of drivers with Robovans and Optimus. When that happen we are going to have some serious culture shock.
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Yes among other major challenges. Tens of millions of displaced workers and the transition and implications associated.
Yes, I would love to see the disruption of logistics. If delivery price can go down 10x then we will see at least a 10x increase in the amount of material that is shipped around.
I worked as a box handler during the Christmas rush way back when; I can totally see USPS and other logistics companies using this in full to replace muscle load in employees.
Exactly. Tony Seba of RethinkX says it this way. " A caterpillar doesn't change into a better version of a caterpillar, it becomes a butterfly or something completely different". A transformational change.
Is coming sooner than many expect. "Robots embodied AGI" it's not just the 22° of freedom that laborers are overlooking. It's the recent announcement and improved learning capabilities of llms. If you do not understand the term fiduciary you are not aware of what is coming.
This is one of the most impressive videos I've ever seen on TH-cam. The arguments you both outline are very well thought out. The horizon for Tesla seems radiant with promise. What an incredible time to be alive.
The other problem is that everyone is ignoring the fact that employees are also customers. And when you fire employees, you are essentially firing. Either directly or indirectly a business is customers. So who will be round to buy the goods and services of the company if nobody has any money? Serious question.
@@nightbeezer There won't be anything to do if robots and A.I. can do it all better. Let me guess, You will try counter the argument with something like humans will do jobs such as personal counselling and similar jobs that need human interaction, You really think there will be 8 billion of those positions? I see the remaining jobs if any will be a line of 20,000 people going for that one interview.
If these numbers are correct, there will be massive wealth transfer to Tesla shareholders. @brighterwithherbet I would love to see Cern do an analysis on the amount of taxes generated from this staggering wealth. And whether it would support some expansion of unemployment benefits.
Truth is, historically when industries shut down or have massive layoffs, most people never go back to work. They don’t work again partly because the jobs require moving to new locations, and people can’t leave their network of family and friends. Their property values decline so substantially, they cannot sell to buy a new home. Most new jobs don’t pay as much without new skills and many especially older workers cannot gain the new skills necessary to move on and often, government subsidizes the failure to find new work. This happened in the shoe industry in New England, the coal industry in WY, the steel industry in the Great Lakes region, etc.
Thank you Cern. So happy to hear you challenging our human construct of purpose. I'm 82 and "retired" at age 58. Never have I ever had a concern about purpose. I have started several small businesses to increase my income but also have turned into a life long learner. There is just so much to do in life that even if i lived for many more years there would be many more purposes I would not be able to pursue. People who worry about purpose are simply not curious enough! Humans have always found ways to make life fun and enjoyable. Working can interfere with that.
Yeah, it's sad how many people are convinced that their job is their life. There's thousands of different pursuits I could take up that would all consume a lifetime or more. Consuming any one form of media alone is an endless pursuit, and only becoming ever more so as AI accelerates production. It's going to be a rough transition but, should humanity survive, we should also come out with a much healthier perspective on life... or hardcore hedonistic ;p
Absolutely! There are enough worthwhile and interesting "purposes," occupations, things to do and places to go and people to meet, to last many lifetimes. I certainly hope (and rather expect) out of all the "abundance" will come medical breakthroughs leading to good health and longevity .. and yes, more interest and attention to families and children and education. IMO, religions should focus on these issues as extending opportunities to do good works, learn, and promote good words ... rather than on soul harvest after deaths.
My wife and I are disabled. I have muscular dystrophy and she has caudal regression syndrome. Having an optimus or 2 would really help us out. We're going to try to get one as soon as they come out.
Andrew Yang tried to warn the public and promoted Ubi laborers did not listen. Walmart and other manufacturers were taking pre-orders of the semis back then.
I’m not sure Walmart will be necessary in a world with human-like bots. If I were them, I’d be more concerned about this shift than use this to reducing staff and make money. It might work in the short term, but not in the long run.
i have a feeling that robotics chatgpt moment will be when tesla makes robots with a truly human gait. its a relatively trivial problem to solve but i think that psychologically it will make a huge difference
This moment will come when they show that hundreds of Optimus robots are moving in Tesla factories doing useful work independently, this will be a shocking moment as the best advertisement for Tesla, then all companies will show interest as analysts and haters will be totally annihilated. This time will come end of 2025 begin 2026 imo. Robot revolution is just a few months ahead
I agree. I've been saying for a while now, that locomotion and agility are Optimus's great challenges right now; but as we've seen with Atlas II and other bots out of China, this problem has been completely solved and these innovations just need to be implemented by Tesla.
I think a robot walking with a true human gait is a double edge sword. On one hand it will impress some holdouts and in for useability thus creating more customers. The Reality is that there is almost unlimited customers today without it having a purely human gait. The other edge is what’s called the uncanny valley. Ex machina movie is a great example of this where are lifelike humanoid robot moves and acts the same as a human until it doesn’t. I.e. moving with unhuman speed. Another real example is Boston dynamics new atlas robot. How is moved during its first video release was stupid to me. On one hand it is engineering porn and on the other hand it is scary because we recognize expected movements in other humans and all animals. A humanoid robot like ex machina is good for one thing and that is companionship it is absolutely not needed for 90% of labour tasks on this planet.
@@Palisades_Prospecting i agree that a human gait does little for robot utility but until it happens most people will still be convinced that robots are only going to be for niche jobs.
@ I agree that’s public opinion right now but like CERN said when the CEO and CFO figure it out at that person‘s company and they get laid off they will figure it out real quick for themselves.
One of many cool aspects to Elon is his impeccable timing for when he introduces a new product. He just seems to know when to go full force, at the right moment, when it’s just right to do so. It’s under appreciated me thinks.
Bots also don’t have to go to endless training sessions to meet regulatory requirements. And training they need can be sent over WiFi while they continue to work.
No, but they would need to be programmed. Don't expect that to come cheap. If the plan is to rent these out, then tech support is going to be how Tesla recoups their money.
You can skip optimus robot, Why not be able to walk again with future version of neuralink? They are already trying to figure out how to bypass the injury to send signals past that point.
One of the most successful business models of the recent past is the Xerox model that closely parallels what Tesla may be contemplating. Xerox decided to lease their copiers instead of selling them. This allowed for Xerox to closely control the supplies used and the maintenance of their equipment. This model also allowed for financial institutions to provide the funds for a minimum leasing term of 36 months for customers that met their credit requirements.
@@tedmoss Today Xerox is but a shadow of it's former self. But it was not Xerox's business model that failed. Xerox failed to see Cannon, Panasonic, Kyocera, and many other Chinese companies as true competition until it was too late. The fact that these Chinese companies copied the equipment, as well as the business model proves that it works. The business model is still the same. The problem was one of production costs vs profit margins. Even when Xerox decided to fabricate it's equipment in China to reduce production costs. It was too late. Xerox kept improving it's technologies in order to appeal to it's higher quality customers for higher prices, but eventually Xerox's research and development costs overpriced it's technical innovations and they lost customers to the cheaper Chinese equipment. It will happen again.
You have to know when to hold and when to fold. This happened to IBM as well, especially with the advent of the personal computer. It sort of happened to AT&T, but as a result of government regulation. Kodax, Xerox, and Nokia are not quite the same, but still similar cases. I am not particularly worried that this will happen to Tesla. After all, this evolution is literally its mission statement. Eventually, whether the competition finally comes or not (from China or legacy), part of that company may just go on making better cars or megapacks. The rest of the company will continue to advance in diverse and surprising directions - and robotics + AI (personal, humanoid, or factory - here or in space) certainly is likely to be one of the forefronts.
An important point often missed when people look at Tesla net margin today is that they are already carrying the cost of FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus development. By the time any of this hits the streets it will be mostly a sunk cost - its not as if they had to borrow $50B from Government to get to this position. Future returns will be huge.
I used to worry about purpose when I had a job. But then I retired and I found out that I have all kinds of purpose and that are fun and not just for the purpose of earning money and spending three hours a day driving to and from my job.
Purpose seems to be an idea formed around being needed, but you don't have to be needed to enjoy life. Everything is ultimately pointless in the end (from a non-religious perspective), so it's up to everyone to choose what matters to them.
I’m nearly 80 years old. As a child, I remember reading a ScI Fi story (I do not remember the author) which told of a future in which robots were cheap and everyone owned a few robots as servants, house cleaners, chauffeurs, gardeners etc. Then A Very Bad Country (for the sake of convenience let’s call it, Russia) sent out “a radio signal” - WiFi did not exist then - to each Western Robot to kill all its owners. Surviving Americans avenged themselves by sending such a signal to kill all the citizens of The Very Bad Country. Some humans survived but had to live high on mountains (for some reasons robots found climbing them difficult). That story is now worrying me. Was it possible? Could we all be massacred by robot servants? I’d just like your opinion on this, please…
There's another application which I haven't seen anyone mention - If the Optimus robot can do everything a human can - that would include the ability to drive a vehicle. So you would have an option to have a self-driving system in the form of a humanoid bot.
Elon delayed the launch is because with FSD v12/13 they realized the way to train Optimus is like FSD - imitating humans. In order to imitate Tesla needs the bot to be as similar to human as possible. That requires a hand. Initial deployment of Optimus would be heavily remote operated to create the training data set. Tesla has the expertise, systems, data goes and compute to leverage that VERY quickly. Every time a task is perfected they’ll move to remote operate the next task. Within a few months they’ll have hundreds of operations - allowing for a wide release to more customers. It will be as mind blowing as the move from v10 to v13 in cars - or actually much more significantly as it will be in humanoid form,
Like Elon said in 5 years every Tesla shareholder will be a millionaire..you only need 10 or so shares maybe 40 shares or 100. He said every shareholder. Even those only holding a few shares will be a millionaire.
Another thing that people are ignoring is the fact that Tesla bots can operate machinery so instead of making complex new machinery for automation, they can just have simpler machinery that’s controlled by an autonomous robot
Some vehicles were broken into this week in my neighborhood Will we see Tesla Bots be able to take on the role of Sentry Bots soon, to stand guard over our neighborhoods at night and by day when no people are around to take watch?
Pardon my excitement about the embodied Tesla AI enabled bot Optimus. While playing this video with Cern's insights on full display I was reminded of the ballad of "John Henry" who was a figure from American folklore, often depicted as an African-American steel-driving man who worked on the railroads. I believe this story is a great illustration of a possible (probable) outcome between human labor and AI bot labor. I'll let Grok retell the story since it can do a better job of it than me. John Henry was a legendary figure known for his strength and endurance. The most famous story about him involves a contest between him and a steam-powered drill. Here's the gist: Setting: The tale is set during the construction of the Big Bend Tunnel in West Virginia, though there are variations placing the event elsewhere. The Challenge: John Henry, a hammer-wielding railroad worker, was pitted against a steam drill in a contest to see who could drive more steel into the rock to make way for the railroad. This was at a time when new technology threatened to replace human labor. The Outcome: According to the legend, John Henry outperformed the machine by driving more steel. However, the effort was so immense that it led to his death. He died with his hammer in his hand, symbolizing human spirit and determination against the march of technology. Themes: The story explores themes of man versus machine, human endurance, labor, and the transition from manual to mechanized work. It's both a celebration of human capability and a lament for the changes brought by industrialization. Cultural Impact: John Henry has become an enduring symbol in American culture, representing the dignity of labor and resistance to dehumanizing technology. His story has been told in songs, books, and various forms of media, making him an icon of folk lore. This narrative, while fictional, captures a very real tension from the Industrial Revolution era, where workers' skills were increasingly challenged by machinery.
It’s not just Tesla that’s developing humanoid robots. There are other major companies with the production capacity and processing power to create humanoids, and they aren’t far behind Tesla or may even surpass Tesla in certain areas. In the race for self-driving cars, the competition isn’t as close as it is in the humanoid robotics field.
@@matty8920 Yes, other companies are developing similar capabilities. Companies like Boston Dynamics, 1X Technologies, Unitree and others are actively integrating advanced AI and robotics technologies.
30:00: Numbers aren't adding up on the Storage, and the assumptions on FSD subscriptions and Taxi/Bot costs must be incredibly conservative, yet the outcome is still monstrous. Really appreciate these models from Cern 💙
the problem with these exponential growth forecasts is that they often fail to take into account real world constraints. e.g internal management capacity, labour force availabiliy, battery availability etc. take a look at giga nevada. scaling has been glacial in comparison to initial forecasts
There's more problems than that. But Herbert and company are too wedded to Elon and Tesla stock pumping to examine Elon's increasingly delusional behavior. I've been trying to figure out concrete ways to bet on the reality of Elon's mental collapse but time frames and inertia make it too hard to guess.
Great perspective. While we see how FSD is trained, it would be interesting to see an automated training feature for the bots. Unlike cars I think bots would be better served with battery swaps as that $300 component would reduce productivity while the bot is offline charging.
I like the analogy of data centers: In the past we used to have to buy the hardware with huge upfront costs. Nowadays, the most common (and profitable) way is renting it. IMHO I think that Elon knows this to be a fact, so renting the bots will not only drive adoption and experimentation but also bring some ARR to help raising investiments and help with the investors.
Tesla should have a sales department and they should already be contacting Walmart and getting future contracts.
4 วันที่ผ่านมา +1
More likely the early customer interfaces would be with the engineering teams for Beta testing. Figure already has bots working at BMW here in the states. You can bet Walmart will be on this asap. Cern is right, they shouldn't wait until things shake out to get involved. First in line has a huge competitive advantage. (I.e. Verns Walmart vs Target scenario)
Need to consider maintenance on bots. As they start doing landscaping, rebuilding car engines, throwing baseballs with grandson 24 hr per day. Bots will require $10,000 in service per year
Very informative presentation. I had to take a picture of some of your charts because I tend to forget some of those looming revenue streams! Thank you
I have am a widow & getting to a stage where I need help. I personally cannot wait. Optimus has been my screen saver since he was just a man in a suite. A dream to end my loneliness but can switch off when I need my space. My brother was lucky enough to get an invite to We Robot & sent me a video of Optimus saying Hi to me here in the UK ..Thrilled was an understatement
51:30 When labor is cheap/unlimited, people will have the wish for extreme decoration again. People these days use a flat panel as a door these days, but back in the days, those doors were made of amazing woodwork. They were really artistic beauties back in the days and months of even years of work.
Regarding Purpose in the Age of Abundance: The StarTrek future is not a bad model; let's explore out into the universe. With Robots doing the super hazardous bits of orbital construction and planetary outpost construction, it sounds like an amazing future!
One concern I have (and raised in other comments) is that if robots are similar to or regarded simply as service agents, more or less strangers or anonymous workers (say, on assembly lines or as CyberCabs), there seems to be no problem. But in the home (for child and senior care) or education or even most small businesses, there become anthropomorphic issues. Already I would want to give my Tesla a personal name, as soon as voice command becomes LLM conversation. Children name their dolls and action figures; everybody names their pets. As robots appear more sentient, they will need to have or accept names and then will become parts of families and business teams, subject to privacy and security and behavior and loyalty expectations. They will not be anonymous, replaceable units and they will not just be parked in garages. This seems likely to become a big factor in the general marketplace (as rentals or as sales).
I, almost completely paralyzed, need at least 2 bots. You can not imagine how much freedom this could give me! First just to assist my human caregivers, later possibly to do most care. That will be so weird. Don't get me wrong; I do like human contact, and I am super thankful for the care I get. But bots could boost efficiency and do not need to be organized and payed. There is a lot that I need that humans cannot do, or don't want to, or not for free. Very possible that I get more time and energy for social contacts when there are bots.
What do you expect these robots to actually be able to do? Getting a bot to do something simple (for human) putting a shirt on and fastening the buttons is currently impossible for these machines. It is going to take a very along time for an artificial that is a good as or better that a human hand to be developed, and it is going to be very expensive.
@@pr248 Good question. Today, there really are no care-robots. But developments accelerate lately, and if not stopped, we will get useful humanoid care robots in the near future. I am sure the first robots will only assist the human care. Don't underestimate the qualities you need to have to be able to give good care. I need a 2 robots today, but giving good care could be the most difficult job for a robot.
People will have entourages of robots as a flex, carrying luggage, shopping bags, stylishly designed robots, premium levels versus basic models, its gonna be wild.
Human’s are emotional. What happens if the ‘poorer’ human’s can’t afford to buy a personal bot? Or can’t afford to maintain the necessary maintenance of their bot? Or get angry at their bot and damage their bot? What if a bot gets damaged and accidentally injures a human? Who is to blame? The human owner, the manufacturer or the bot? 🤷♀️🤷🏽🤷🏾♂️
Yet another great episode! The more I listen to you guys, the more I start worrying about humanity and - thus - people‘s livelihoods all over the world. RoboTax, UBI, etc. get way too little attention in my opinion. How about a deep dive on that part of the equation?
Every change in society causes harm to some individuals. Hand weavers were replaced by mechanical weaving machines. Think about how much a bed sheet would cost if it was hand woven. I share your concerns but I always ask myself is society as a whole getting more or less.
@@greatcondor8678I have my own business and I can say with great confidence that business never have and never will pay taxes. Businesses collect taxes from the consumer. I really don’t care what the tax rate is as long as my competitors pay the same rate. With one exception, I care about high tax rates because my customers can afford less of my product. Imagine you own a gas station and the government suddenly raises the tax on a gallon of gas by $1.00. You just walk out to the gas pumps and raise the price of gas by $1.00. All the best.❤🇺🇸
@@MikeCasey311 Governments had to bail out car companies with billions of tax dollars… and that would have „only“ impacted a few million workers at most (who are all at risk again given the current state of legacy car companies!). I would assume there were less than a million weavers… and definitely less than a few billions, if humanoids take over > 80 % of all jobs… I‘m sure we will come up with a solution… but I‘m not seeing any clear signs just yet.
Fantastic discussion and super informative, thank you both.
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This very helpful insight. Cern, yours and a couple others modeling pick up where ARK's model leaves off, which does not yet include any Optimus. They are already at $2,600 PT for 2029 with just FSD/robotaxi.
At the big Tesla event two months ago the Optimus could hand out bags of sweets from a tray. When the tray was empty two Tesla workers had to replace the empty tray with a new one. Based on this I'd say it'll take a couple of years until you will see Optimus at Walmarts.
Charging question? If the bot is working in a small space on a line, would it be feasible to charge from the feet while standing on a charging pad? Seems like a great way to increase productivity. When fully charged, the bot can switch places with another so it can charge. 1 charging pad for 4-6 bots?
If you look at agriculture you can see that business owners know the value of a machine. There are jobs that can be performed by people, but businesses are always willing to pay for the machines. I think that people will look at this situation similarly.
Very thought provoking, thanks Herbert and Cern. I loved it all, especially the final comment on purpose as this has been such a negative subject by others and you just positioned it beautifully ❤🙏🏼
Selling bots (and robotaxis) instead of licensing is better cause money is more valuable when you get it right away, cause you can reinvest it. Licensing is to fill needs for those who cant afford to buy.
How about this. An Aviation Teslabot that has an instrument rating that can fly you in your own plane without you having to be a pilot. Would be way easier than teaching one to drive. You might need to get some sort of safety pilot rating in case of a malfunction. Would be perfect for older pilots that lose their medical certificate.
The big problem I see for human robot companions is the now few hundred thousand ish token context window. I try to use LLMs as collaborators on large projects. Every day or two I need to start a new conversation and prime it with scenes from our previous episodes”.
1% sun harvest: right. But history show also, if there is an volcano event, a big one, no sun power available long time. So we need another backup. Nuclear, or something like this….
I'm one of the old people that remembers the term "Bond Vigilantes" from the 70's. ie what happens if the Fed lowers rates and there is a shortage of debt/treasuries buyers. Fed loses control of interest rates? ie supply of debt issuance is greater than willing buyers ....investors demanding higher interest rates than fed fund rate. Game over for the Fed? This would be a good subject for one of your next video. You younger guys have some history to learn about the debt markets of old. I've personally benefited from following Sandy Barclays trading tactics, amassing 13 bitcoins in a short two-month period, I just trade than hold on a Future I am not sure about.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.
I think that Tesla will delay producing new models at scale until the Optimus bots are available and functional to "man" the assembly lines. This will eliminate the image of replacing humans to a degree.
Grok says there are 30 million manual laborers in USA and 40 in EU. These include just construction, manufacturing, transportation/storage and mining. Your projections are 10x. I think you need you review each of the 20 major Dept of Labor industries and take into account the current number of workers; then, estimate humanoid adoption in each industry by year. I think this analysis will result in a much lower number of units. I think you also need to quantify which markets make economic sense - G8 countries yes, but developing economies maybe not.
They can do all labor not just manual labor. They also fill manual labor job market gaps and shortages. Finally new projects will be moved from speculative to practical with bots -there is a lot of non-deployed capital. I think their numbers are conservative.
@ Opinions without data is noise. Why are they conservative? What are your assumptions? Which industry? What market share? What level of adoption by country? How many in industry and how many in homes as domestics? I’m hugely invested in $TSLA, but all these blue sky estimates are just adding to volatility, not the uptrend.
I only get $3040 profit in vehicle equivalents for the energy on your slide which would only be 0.64 times auto profit. Can you explain how cern calculated $12162 profit instead of $3040 ???
THE BOTS GO TO THE UNIVERSITY! Besides selling or leasing Tesla may gain significant revenue and profit from the skills given to each bot under subscription! A subscription for cooking skills, another subscription for caring to old people, etc. Some of the specialized know-how may come from other parties that pay a fee to Tesla (similar to Apple App Store)
Thanks Herbert this was definitely an eye-opener. I was thinking of human jobs for the future, and one of them was Bot Repairs in rural or remote areas.
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Mr. Musk will start building all the components through Tesla and they will be much, much cheaper than what is on list. What is the cost of the raw materials to make them and the cost of the robots to put them together? Negligible. A few hundred dollars, max. Just like the rest of the company, he will do them from start to finish.
@@BrighterwithHerbert doesn't work in Australia
.only USA customers
why would it be easier to make bots than a car(ev)? Elon said it himself that every part in optimus is custom made as they do not use pre-made actuators on the market, as well as many other parts in optimus. Bots require incredible precision as even a centimeter off of its tendons or its pivoting joints will casue extreme malfunction due to nature of geometry/topology(sin/cos/ arc/radius etc). think of evry part of optimus as extremely fine and delicate motor input output devices on p or better yet, think of those da vinci surgical robots in hospitals- optimus will require just as much finesse and sensitivty due to its design to mimic human joints in degree of freedom in ROM. If you compare that to tesla ev, that's like comparing manual hammer to a delicate 8 thread overlock computerized embroidery sewing machine
Still, even without the said volume for optimus, it'll still be very profitable(but I think elon is right about 25 trillion). No matter the field, including economics and finance, elon knows more than any one of us so it's a bit presumptuous for you to think you know better than elon and to correct him on his own business model / valuation. Remember, he is able to calculate things so much further down the line than any one of us or any wall street analysts.
@@BornFreeFilmsMusk Industries have ALREADY long been the most vertically integrated of all companies which is why suppliers clamber to become as close as equivalent to whichever of Tesla’s internal manufacturing & production processes that 3rd parties may be able to satisfy.
We are so lucky to have you guys in this Tesla community. Thanks Cern and Herbert for your hard work and consistency.
My wife and I both have Parkinson’s. We will need more assistance as we age. Our plan is to have two Optimus units as soon as it’s available.
🙏
I hope recent advances in Parkinson's diagnosis/treatment/cure materialize soon enough to help you out.
I'm considering buying 1-2 Optumi for wife and me.
Wishing you two all the best!
A great plan! I hope you are somewhat set already or can hold on until 2035 as the early units with the unimaginable demand for them will put them at $250k per. We'll see, there is plenty of competition so price won't be high for too long.
My brother in law at 50 was just diagnosed in October. Hang in there and we pray for a major cure.
Might also have dementia
Always a pleasure watching cern
Thank you CERN for your expansive perspective of what Optimus can do
54:00
Abundance….
Maybe shorter shifts
Shorter workweeks
More human labor focused on children, schools etc
More focus on disaster prevention….
Hopefully society pivots well
Thank you CERN💪❤... Beyond your CFA and financial expertise you are a brilliant educator and communicator... Your kids and clients are blessed ❗
One of Walmarts strengths has always been the rapid adoption of technology for logistics. They are very good at it. It would not surprise me if Walmart were an early adopter. UPS could probably replace 90% of drivers with Robovans and Optimus. When that happen we are going to have some serious culture shock.
Yes among other major challenges. Tens of millions of displaced workers and the transition and implications associated.
UPS has a lot of people that just do sorting.
Yes, I would love to see the disruption of logistics. If delivery price can go down 10x then we will see at least a 10x increase in the amount of material that is shipped around.
I worked as a box handler during the Christmas rush way back when; I can totally see USPS and other logistics companies using this in full to replace muscle load in employees.
@@Nas_Atlasmath ain’t mathing sir
I can't believe I'm saying this but Cern is challenging my favorite guest position with Jeff. So lucky to have these guys.
This is an entire paradigm shift.
Well said !
Exactly. Tony Seba of RethinkX says it this way. " A caterpillar doesn't change into a better version of a caterpillar, it becomes a butterfly or something completely different". A transformational change.
Is coming sooner than many expect. "Robots embodied AGI" it's not just the 22° of freedom that laborers are overlooking. It's the recent announcement and improved learning capabilities of llms. If you do not understand the term fiduciary you are not aware of what is coming.
This is one of the most impressive videos I've ever seen on TH-cam. The arguments you both outline are very well thought out. The horizon for Tesla seems radiant with promise. What an incredible time to be alive.
Deeply satisfying analysis - thank you
The other problem is that everyone is ignoring the fact that employees are also customers. And when you fire employees, you are essentially firing. Either directly or indirectly a business is customers. So who will be round to buy the goods and services of the company if nobody has any money? Serious question.
That is why robots will not replace humans completely. Market will create new jobs for humans.
@@nightbeezer There won't be anything to do if robots and A.I. can do it all better.
Let me guess, You will try counter the argument with something like humans will do jobs such as personal counselling and similar jobs that need human interaction, You really think there will be 8 billion of those positions?
I see the remaining jobs if any will be a line of 20,000 people going for that one interview.
If these numbers are correct, there will be massive wealth transfer to Tesla shareholders. @brighterwithherbet I would love to see Cern do an analysis on the amount of taxes generated from this staggering wealth. And whether it would support some expansion of unemployment benefits.
Hence why everyone who thinks it through ends up at UBI.
If the turnover is 40% just replace the leavers.
No-one needs to get upset.
Truth is, historically when industries shut down or have massive layoffs, most people never go back to work. They don’t work again partly because the jobs require moving to new locations, and people can’t leave their network of family and friends. Their property values decline so substantially, they cannot sell to buy a new home. Most new jobs don’t pay as much without new skills and many especially older workers cannot gain the new skills necessary to move on and often, government subsidizes the failure to find new work. This happened in the shoe industry in New England, the coal industry in WY, the steel industry in the Great Lakes region, etc.
Thank you Cern. So happy to hear you challenging our human construct of purpose. I'm 82 and "retired" at age 58. Never have I ever had a concern about purpose. I have started several small businesses to increase my income but also have turned into a life long learner. There is just so much to do in life that even if i lived for many more years there would be many more purposes I would not be able to pursue. People who worry about purpose are simply not curious enough! Humans have always found ways to make life fun and enjoyable. Working can interfere with that.
Yeah, it's sad how many people are convinced that their job is their life. There's thousands of different pursuits I could take up that would all consume a lifetime or more. Consuming any one form of media alone is an endless pursuit, and only becoming ever more so as AI accelerates production. It's going to be a rough transition but, should humanity survive, we should also come out with a much healthier perspective on life... or hardcore hedonistic ;p
Absolutely! There are enough worthwhile and interesting "purposes," occupations, things to do and places to go and people to meet, to last many lifetimes. I certainly hope (and rather expect) out of all the "abundance" will come medical breakthroughs leading to good health and longevity .. and yes, more interest and attention to families and children and education. IMO, religions should focus on these issues as extending opportunities to do good works, learn, and promote good words ... rather than on soul harvest after deaths.
My wife and I are disabled. I have muscular dystrophy and she has caudal regression syndrome. Having an optimus or 2 would really help us out. We're going to try to get one as soon as they come out.
Thanks!
Regarding the skipped slide; Walmart is already using floor scrubbing bots in stores. They are actively working during business hours.
Wal-Mart is watching this video :)
@@skinnymoonbob 😎👍 - They certainly should be!!
Andrew Yang tried to warn the public and promoted Ubi laborers did not listen. Walmart and other manufacturers were taking pre-orders of the semis back then.
Big Ag is also watching with bated breath.
I’m not sure Walmart will be necessary in a world with human-like bots. If I were them, I’d be more concerned about this shift than use this to reducing staff and make money. It might work in the short term, but not in the long run.
A topic that couldn’t be more farther from being published by mainstream media, including wsj, cnbc, etc!
i have a feeling that robotics chatgpt moment will be when tesla makes robots with a truly human gait. its a relatively trivial problem to solve but i think that psychologically it will make a huge difference
This moment will come when they show that hundreds of Optimus robots are moving in Tesla factories doing useful work independently, this will be a shocking moment as the best advertisement for Tesla, then all companies will show interest as analysts and haters will be totally annihilated. This time will come end of 2025 begin 2026 imo. Robot revolution is just a few months ahead
I agree. I've been saying for a while now, that locomotion and agility are Optimus's great challenges right now; but as we've seen with Atlas II and other bots out of China, this problem has been completely solved and these innovations just need to be implemented by Tesla.
I think a robot walking with a true human gait is a double edge sword. On one hand it will impress some holdouts and in for useability thus creating more customers. The Reality is that there is almost unlimited customers today without it having a purely human gait. The other edge is what’s called the uncanny valley. Ex machina movie is a great example of this where are lifelike humanoid robot moves and acts the same as a human until it doesn’t. I.e. moving with unhuman speed. Another real example is Boston dynamics new atlas robot. How is moved during its first video release was stupid to me. On one hand it is engineering porn and on the other hand it is scary because we recognize expected movements in other humans and all animals. A humanoid robot like ex machina is good for one thing and that is companionship it is absolutely not needed for 90% of labour tasks on this planet.
@@Palisades_Prospecting i agree that a human gait does little for robot utility but until it happens most people will still be convinced that robots are only going to be for niche jobs.
@ I agree that’s public opinion right now but like CERN said when the CEO and CFO figure it out at that person‘s company and they get laid off they will figure it out real quick for themselves.
One of many cool aspects to Elon is his impeccable timing for when he introduces a new product. He just seems to know when to go full force, at the right moment, when it’s just right to do so. It’s under appreciated me thinks.
Sub 30k, 16-20 hours a day, 120+ IQ, fleet training... Workforce and companionship on demand. Thank you for the comprehensive deep dives Cern.
Bots also don’t have to go to endless training sessions to meet regulatory requirements. And training they need can be sent over WiFi while they continue to work.
No, but they would need to be programmed. Don't expect that to come cheap. If the plan is to rent these out, then tech support is going to be how Tesla recoups their money.
As a paralyzed quadriplegic Optimus would be sweet!
You should be at the top of the list!
You can skip optimus robot, Why not be able to walk again with future version of neuralink? They are already trying to figure out how to bypass the injury to send signals past that point.
CERN💪❤- Time 🙌
I love this guest! Actually, I love all of your guests! Awesome Channel Herbert!
Go Herbert!! Great topic!!
One of the most successful business models of the recent past is the Xerox model that closely parallels what Tesla may be contemplating. Xerox decided to lease their copiers instead of selling them. This allowed for Xerox to closely control the supplies used and the maintenance of their equipment. This model also allowed for financial institutions to provide the funds for a minimum leasing term of 36 months for customers that met their credit requirements.
It works for a while then something comes along and changes it.
@@tedmoss Today Xerox is but a shadow of it's former self. But it was not Xerox's business model that failed. Xerox failed to see Cannon, Panasonic, Kyocera, and many other Chinese companies as true competition until it was too late. The fact that these Chinese companies copied the equipment, as well as the business model proves that it works. The business model is still the same. The problem was one of production costs vs profit margins. Even when Xerox decided to fabricate it's equipment in China to reduce production costs. It was too late. Xerox kept improving it's technologies in order to appeal to it's higher quality customers for higher prices, but eventually Xerox's research and development costs overpriced it's technical innovations and they lost customers to the cheaper Chinese equipment. It will happen again.
You have to know when to hold and when to fold. This happened to IBM as well, especially with the advent of the personal computer. It sort of happened to AT&T, but as a result of government regulation. Kodax, Xerox, and Nokia are not quite the same, but still similar cases. I am not particularly worried that this will happen to Tesla. After all, this evolution is literally its mission statement. Eventually, whether the competition finally comes or not (from China or legacy), part of that company may just go on making better cars or megapacks. The rest of the company will continue to advance in diverse and surprising directions - and robotics + AI (personal, humanoid, or factory - here or in space) certainly is likely to be one of the forefronts.
An important point often missed when people look at Tesla net margin today is that they are already carrying the cost of FSD/Robotaxi/Optimus development.
By the time any of this hits the streets it will be mostly a sunk cost - its not as if they had to borrow $50B from Government to get to this position. Future returns will be huge.
I used to worry about purpose when I had a job. But then I retired and I found out that I have all kinds of purpose and that are fun and not just for the purpose of earning money and spending three hours a day driving to and from my job.
Purpose seems to be an idea formed around being needed, but you don't have to be needed to enjoy life. Everything is ultimately pointless in the end (from a non-religious perspective), so it's up to everyone to choose what matters to them.
I’m nearly 80 years old. As a child, I remember reading a ScI Fi story (I do not remember the author) which told of a future in which robots were cheap and everyone owned a few robots as servants, house cleaners, chauffeurs, gardeners etc.
Then A Very Bad Country (for the sake of convenience let’s call it, Russia) sent out “a radio signal” - WiFi did not exist then - to each Western Robot to kill all its owners. Surviving Americans avenged themselves by sending such a signal to kill all the citizens of The Very Bad Country. Some humans survived but had to live high on mountains (for some reasons robots found climbing them difficult).
That story is now worrying me.
Was it possible? Could we all be massacred by robot servants?
I’d just like your opinion on this, please…
One of the best episodes ever. Cern is an amazing guest. Always enjoy him.
There's another application which I haven't seen anyone mention - If the Optimus robot can do everything a human can - that would include the ability to drive a vehicle. So you would have an option to have a self-driving system in the form of a humanoid bot.
I want a robot that can hug, that gives hugs, nice gentle hugs and cuddles on the sofa while watching a movie or tv! Great work!
Elon delayed the launch is because with FSD v12/13 they realized the way to train Optimus is like FSD - imitating humans. In order to imitate Tesla needs the bot to be as similar to human as possible. That requires a hand. Initial deployment of Optimus would be heavily remote operated to create the training data set. Tesla has the expertise, systems, data goes and compute to leverage that VERY quickly. Every time a task is perfected they’ll move to remote operate the next task. Within a few months they’ll have hundreds of operations - allowing for a wide release to more customers. It will be as mind blowing as the move from v10 to v13 in cars - or actually much more significantly as it will be in humanoid form,
Like Elon said in 5 years every Tesla shareholder will be a millionaire..you only need 10 or so shares maybe 40 shares or 100. He said every shareholder. Even those only holding a few shares will be a millionaire.
Where'd he mention that? I only have a few. 😢
You are dreaming, buy more shares, you need more!
He never said that. Source please
@MokeAnit he said all Tesla shareholders will be millionaires
@@MarsOzzie Where? When?
Another thing that people are ignoring is the fact that Tesla bots can operate machinery so instead of making complex new machinery for automation, they can just have simpler machinery that’s controlled by an autonomous robot
Very true. Most of traditional automation technology may be unnecessary if you have a supply of optimus robots and basic machinery and tools.
Some vehicles were broken into this week in my neighborhood Will we see Tesla Bots be able to take on the role of Sentry Bots soon, to stand guard over our neighborhoods at night and by day when no people are around to take watch?
I think security will be one of the biggest bot uses.
That would be wonderful!🎉
Thank you gentlemen.
Pardon my excitement about the embodied Tesla AI enabled bot Optimus. While playing this video with Cern's insights on full display I was reminded of the ballad of "John Henry" who was a figure from American folklore, often depicted as an African-American steel-driving man who worked on the railroads. I believe this story is a great illustration of a possible (probable) outcome between human labor and AI bot labor. I'll let Grok retell the story since it can do a better job of it than me.
John Henry was a legendary figure known for his strength and endurance. The most famous story about him involves a contest between him and a steam-powered drill. Here's the gist:
Setting: The tale is set during the construction of the Big Bend Tunnel in West Virginia, though there are variations placing the event elsewhere.
The Challenge: John Henry, a hammer-wielding railroad worker, was pitted against a steam drill in a contest to see who could drive more steel into the rock to make way for the railroad. This was at a time when new technology threatened to replace human labor.
The Outcome: According to the legend, John Henry outperformed the machine by driving more steel. However, the effort was so immense that it led to his death. He died with his hammer in his hand, symbolizing human spirit and determination against the march of technology.
Themes: The story explores themes of man versus machine, human endurance, labor, and the transition from manual to mechanized work. It's both a celebration of human capability and a lament for the changes brought by industrialization.
Cultural Impact: John Henry has become an enduring symbol in American culture, representing the dignity of labor and resistance to dehumanizing technology. His story has been told in songs, books, and various forms of media, making him an icon of folk lore.
This narrative, while fictional, captures a very real tension from the Industrial Revolution era, where workers' skills were increasingly challenged by machinery.
Funny feeling Tesla’s value will pop. Truly feel it will be the most valuable company in the world soon.
It already is, wall street doesn't know it .
It’s not just Tesla that’s developing humanoid robots. There are other major companies with the production capacity and processing power to create humanoids, and they aren’t far behind Tesla or may even surpass Tesla in certain areas. In the race for self-driving cars, the competition isn’t as close as it is in the humanoid robotics field.
@@annawilson4571I believe FSD will also be used in Optimus but for the bot. Do other companies have this capability?
@@matty8920 Yes, other companies are developing similar capabilities. Companies like Boston Dynamics, 1X Technologies, Unitree and others are actively integrating advanced AI and robotics technologies.
30:00: Numbers aren't adding up on the Storage, and the assumptions on FSD subscriptions and Taxi/Bot costs must be incredibly conservative, yet the outcome is still monstrous. Really appreciate these models from Cern 💙
the problem with these exponential growth forecasts is that they often fail to take into account real world constraints. e.g internal management capacity, labour force availabiliy, battery availability etc. take a look at giga nevada. scaling has been glacial in comparison to initial forecasts
There's more problems than that. But Herbert and company are too wedded to Elon and Tesla stock pumping to examine Elon's increasingly delusional behavior. I've been trying to figure out concrete ways to bet on the reality of Elon's mental collapse but time frames and inertia make it too hard to guess.
I love how you broke down the XAI030v project in your video! Can’t wait to see it skyrocket!
Great perspective. While we see how FSD is trained, it would be interesting to see an automated training feature for the bots. Unlike cars I think bots would be better served with battery swaps as that $300 component would reduce productivity while the bot is offline charging.
Cern is literally the best
Literally
I like the analogy of data centers: In the past we used to have to buy the hardware with huge upfront costs. Nowadays, the most common (and profitable) way is renting it. IMHO I think that Elon knows this to be a fact, so renting the bots will not only drive adoption and experimentation but also bring some ARR to help raising investiments and help with the investors.
Every discussion with Cern is gold. Thanks Herbert
Tesla should have a sales department and they should already be contacting Walmart and getting future contracts.
More likely the early customer interfaces would be with the engineering teams for Beta testing. Figure already has bots working at BMW here in the states. You can bet Walmart will be on this asap. Cern is right, they shouldn't wait until things shake out to get involved. First in line has a huge competitive advantage. (I.e. Verns Walmart vs Target scenario)
This is the rare product that sells itself
Need to consider maintenance on bots. As they start doing landscaping, rebuilding car engines, throwing baseballs with grandson 24 hr per day. Bots will require $10,000 in service per year
I was too early with comment. He covers this. Good work
Very informative presentation. I had to take a picture of some of your charts because I tend to forget some of those looming revenue streams! Thank you
Advantages of Humanoid Robots: No WOKE "False Allegations" 💪💪💪
? Like there will be a a plethora of jobs in all sectors.
Brilliant. Thank you to both of you
I have am a widow & getting to a stage where I need help. I personally cannot wait. Optimus has been my screen saver since he was just a man in a suite. A dream to end my loneliness but can switch off when I need my space. My brother was lucky enough to get an invite to We Robot & sent me a video of Optimus saying Hi to me here in the UK ..Thrilled was an understatement
Yeap I'm tuned in because it's Cern. Thanks Herbert. KeepSmiling 😊🌺
Guess that job I wanted as a greeter is off the table now, I was looking forward to spending my golden years at Walmart.
51:30 When labor is cheap/unlimited, people will have the wish for extreme decoration again.
People these days use a flat panel as a door these days, but back in the days, those doors were made of amazing woodwork. They were really artistic beauties back in the days and months of even years of work.
Regarding Purpose in the Age of Abundance: The StarTrek future is not a bad model; let's explore out into the universe. With Robots doing the super hazardous bits of orbital construction and planetary outpost construction, it sounds like an amazing future!
One concern I have (and raised in other comments) is that if robots are similar to or regarded simply as service agents, more or less strangers or anonymous workers (say, on assembly lines or as CyberCabs), there seems to be no problem. But in the home (for child and senior care) or education or even most small businesses, there become anthropomorphic issues. Already I would want to give my Tesla a personal name, as soon as voice command becomes LLM conversation. Children name their dolls and action figures; everybody names their pets. As robots appear more sentient, they will need to have or accept names and then will become parts of families and business teams, subject to privacy and security and behavior and loyalty expectations. They will not be anonymous, replaceable units and they will not just be parked in garages. This seems likely to become a big factor in the general marketplace (as rentals or as sales).
Thanks Cern, your work is very precious thanks to both.
Optimus will learn to assemble Tesla vehicles first. That would bring the cost of building a car down dramatically. That's when margins explode
Thank you Cern
I’ve never been so stunned. Period.
Great analysis Cern!
I'm always delighted to see Cern here, his analysis resonate with retail investors like myself. Keep it up Cern 👍
I, almost completely paralyzed, need at least 2 bots. You can not imagine how much freedom this could give me! First just to assist my human caregivers, later possibly to do most care. That will be so weird. Don't get me wrong; I do like human contact, and I am super thankful for the care I get. But bots could boost efficiency and do not need to be organized and payed. There is a lot that I need that humans cannot do, or don't want to, or not for free. Very possible that I get more time and energy for social contacts when there are bots.
What do you expect these robots to actually be able to do? Getting a bot to do something simple (for human) putting a shirt on and fastening the buttons is currently impossible for these machines. It is going to take a very along time for an artificial that is a good as or better that a human hand to be developed, and it is going to be very expensive.
@@pr248 Good question. Today, there really are no care-robots. But developments accelerate lately, and if not stopped, we will get useful humanoid care robots in the near future. I am sure the first robots will only assist the human care. Don't underestimate the qualities you need to have to be able to give good care. I need a 2 robots today, but giving good care could be the most difficult job for a robot.
People will have entourages of robots as a flex, carrying luggage, shopping bags, stylishly designed robots, premium levels versus basic models, its gonna be wild.
Human’s are emotional.
What happens if the ‘poorer’ human’s can’t afford to buy a personal bot? Or can’t afford to maintain the necessary maintenance of their bot? Or get angry at their bot and damage their bot?
What if a bot gets damaged and accidentally injures a human?
Who is to blame? The human owner, the manufacturer or the bot?
🤷♀️🤷🏽🤷🏾♂️
Yet another great episode! The more I listen to you guys, the more I start worrying about humanity and - thus - people‘s livelihoods all over the world. RoboTax, UBI, etc. get way too little attention in my opinion. How about a deep dive on that part of the equation?
Consumers always end up paying all corporate taxes.
Every change in society causes harm to some individuals.
Hand weavers were replaced by mechanical weaving machines.
Think about how much a bed sheet would cost if it was hand woven.
I share your concerns but I always ask myself is society as a whole getting more or less.
The more i listen, the less I worry.
@@greatcondor8678I have my own business and I can say with great confidence that business never have and never will pay taxes.
Businesses collect taxes from the consumer.
I really don’t care what the tax rate is as long as my competitors pay the same rate.
With one exception, I care about high tax rates because my customers can afford less of my product.
Imagine you own a gas station and the government suddenly raises the tax on a gallon of gas by $1.00.
You just walk out to the gas pumps and raise the price of gas by $1.00.
All the best.❤🇺🇸
@@MikeCasey311 Governments had to bail out car companies with billions of tax dollars… and that would have „only“ impacted a few million workers at most (who are all at risk again given the current state of legacy car companies!).
I would assume there were less than a million weavers… and definitely less than a few billions, if humanoids take over > 80 % of all jobs… I‘m sure we will come up with a solution… but I‘m not seeing any clear signs just yet.
Fantastic discussion and super informative, thank you both.
This very helpful insight. Cern, yours and a couple others modeling pick up where ARK's model leaves off, which does not yet include any Optimus. They are already at $2,600 PT for 2029 with just FSD/robotaxi.
At the big Tesla event two months ago the Optimus could hand out bags of sweets from a tray. When the tray was empty two Tesla workers had to replace the empty tray with a new one. Based on this I'd say it'll take a couple of years until you will see Optimus at Walmarts.
Those robots were remotely controlled by a human operator. So it took three people to hand out a bag of sweets.
Cern sees the future in ways very few geniuses can even visualize.
life changing video.
thanks
Where is the software and network infrastructure costs?
Charging question? If the bot is working in a small space on a line, would it be feasible to charge from the feet while standing on a charging pad? Seems like a great way to increase productivity. When fully charged, the bot can switch places with another so it can charge. 1 charging pad for 4-6 bots?
Sure, but many solutions including just swapping a battery.
Great video! 👏
Great job as Tesla investors I hope you are right!!!!!!
Really great analysis and insights from Cern! Thanks for sharing these insights.
If you look at agriculture you can see that business owners know the value of a machine. There are jobs that can be performed by people, but businesses are always willing to pay for the machines. I think that people will look at this situation similarly.
The share price will go up but when will it crash or will it just keep going up?
Very thought provoking, thanks Herbert and Cern. I loved it all, especially the final comment on purpose as this has been such a negative subject by others and you just positioned it beautifully ❤🙏🏼
Selling bots (and robotaxis) instead of licensing is better cause money is more valuable when you get it right away, cause you can reinvest it. Licensing is to fill needs for those who cant afford to buy.
How many will the army buy ?
How much freshly printed Fiat currency will Elon ecept? 😅
Excellent!
How about this. An Aviation Teslabot that has an instrument rating that can fly you in your own plane without you having to be a pilot. Would be way easier than teaching one to drive. You might need to get some sort of safety pilot rating in case of a malfunction. Would be perfect for older pilots that lose their medical certificate.
Does this mean the shelves will finally be properly stocked over on the western half of the USA?
The last note about how robots could help humanity to increase our population is very important.
The big problem I see for human robot companions is the now few hundred thousand ish token context window.
I try to use LLMs as collaborators on large projects. Every day or two I need to start a new conversation and prime it with scenes from our previous episodes”.
1% sun harvest: right. But history show also, if there is an volcano event, a big one, no sun power available long time. So we need another backup. Nuclear, or something like this….
Interesting what excites you boys!
I'm one of the old people that remembers the term "Bond Vigilantes" from the 70's. ie what happens if the Fed lowers rates and there is a shortage of debt/treasuries buyers. Fed loses control of interest rates? ie supply of debt issuance is greater than willing buyers ....investors demanding higher interest rates than fed fund rate. Game over for the Fed? This would be a good subject for one of your next video. You younger guys have some history to learn about the debt markets of old. I've personally benefited from following Sandy Barclays trading tactics, amassing 13 bitcoins in a short two-month period, I just trade than hold on a Future I am not sure about.
She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@SandyBarclays .
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Sandy’s trade signal service.
Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.
I think that Tesla will delay producing new models at scale until the Optimus bots are available and functional to "man" the assembly lines. This will eliminate the image of replacing humans to a degree.
No
@@davidmarkmann6098No. Tesla employees are building them now. But bots will eventually build new bots.
No
How long before pay role taxes are applied. Will they give up the revenue?
Grok says there are 30 million manual laborers in USA and 40 in EU. These include just construction, manufacturing, transportation/storage and mining. Your projections are 10x. I think you need you review each of the 20 major Dept of Labor industries and take into account the current number of workers; then, estimate humanoid adoption in each industry by year. I think this analysis will result in a much lower number of units. I think you also need to quantify which markets make economic sense - G8 countries yes, but developing economies maybe not.
They can do all labor not just manual labor. They also fill manual labor job market gaps and shortages. Finally new projects will be moved from speculative to practical with bots -there is a lot of non-deployed capital. I think their numbers are conservative.
@ Opinions without data is noise. Why are they conservative? What are your assumptions? Which industry? What market share? What level of adoption by country? How many in industry and how many in homes as domestics? I’m hugely invested in $TSLA, but all these blue sky estimates are just adding to volatility, not the uptrend.
Is optimus bulletproof
I only get $3040 profit in vehicle equivalents for the energy on your slide which would only be 0.64 times auto profit.
Can you explain how cern calculated $12162 profit instead of $3040 ???
Robot store clerks. Honest, unlimited self defense capabilities, accurate, etc.
THE BOTS GO TO THE UNIVERSITY!
Besides selling or leasing Tesla may gain significant revenue and profit from the skills given to each bot under subscription! A subscription for cooking skills, another subscription for caring to old people, etc. Some of the specialized know-how may come from other parties that pay a fee to Tesla (similar to Apple App Store)
Thanks Herbert this was definitely an eye-opener. I was thinking of human jobs for the future, and one of them was Bot Repairs in rural or remote areas.
Did Cern consider the military demand for Bots, especially in the many specialized categories and deployments?