Jeff is the best in explaining business and manufacturing, thank you sooo much for doing this guys, the Tesla community really needs guys with expertise to explain what is going on, as you explain this, in this podcast, the world is going to change so much in the next decade
As a "small" scale rural farmer (no tractors) our biggest expense is labour, about $28,000 per employee (40 hrs/ week @ $20/hr for 8 months/year). And that is IF we can find any willing workers. IF we can they often make many costly mistakes, take time off for vacations, and productions plummets if it is too hot, too cold, too rainy, or when they are too tired. Humanoid robots are terrifying to me, but at the same time I can't help but be drawn to the possibility that they could be the solution we have been looking for...
It almost certainly will be the solution for you but for other people who depend upon labor jobs they're pretty much screwed. There's going to be lots of unemployed in the future and I don't think most folks support Elon and Trump know what's in store for them
@@laughinggas5281- Elon has already talked about what the rewards for faithful displaced workers will be, and who do you think will fare better, Trump and Elon supporters, or Leftists drones with no useful education, purposeful self-motivation, or enjoyable lives? Future rallies will be even happier places to be than the competitors’ “concerts”, where not even the “entertainers” are entertaining.
Hans might be useful if he could think and speak at upwards of normal human speed. It’s painful trying to comprehend what he’s trying to communicate before I have to go eat a meal, sleep, get something more useful done, etc. Maybe he can hire some soon-to-be-unemployed current administration speechwriters to tippy-tap his thoughts into a teleprompter that can be read via a text-to-speech bot at normal speeds …
Hello FARZAD, YOU, JEFF LUTZ, HANS NELSON and HERBER ONG are the mega rock stars on you tube. Thank you so much!! for all of your richly detailed conversations in the Tesla EV, autonomous and robot humanoid industry.
One of the best interviews/ discussions! Love the channel guys! Jeff is a wealth of vital information! Please have him back on again soon! Excellent stuff, keep up the great work 🙏🏻👏🏼
I agree, one of the very best discussions out there, so interesting to have the deep dive into the Tesla company, now I feel like a cow, I have to listen to it again a second time. Tomorrow after digesting this info. The thing Jeff brought to my attention, we only see Elon using Ai in his products, but what is he doing with this internally, as making large scale manufacturing is 1000 times harder then developing the product, all we see is other companies with great cars and bots, but if I am correct, no one will catch up to Elon as he is already light years ahead with manufacturing. If building the factory is this hard and nobody else can do this, is this going to be the biggest moneymaker for Tesla, not the FSD, not robotaxi, not the bot, it is building Ai powered human-less factories.
Your guests on the last dozens of episodes are really awesome! Especially Jeff is a Diamond of the Tesla community! But when will James Dauma be part of your 3h podcast Farzad? You made us wait for it so long ago! 😅
human labor will soon be outcompeted by robots. The world's economy will no longer be based on work, but on investment. Great that it is possible to invest in TSLA. ❤
@toddai2721 you know what, yeah. Robofactories is one thing but if I ever learned yhat robots were actually just reproducing I would be rather frightened.
Jeff is an awesome resource and asset to the Tesla Community --- all the "inside information" helps to solidify confidence in buying/holding the stock. The reduction in COGS information he shared 6 months ago is a good example. If we're not careful Tesla is going to hire Jeff, he'll then be under an NDA, and we'll never hear from him :-)
@@jeffreylutz1208- Ummm, is there any other kind of actual experience besides lived experience … dead experience? No, reading or watching a video about something is not the same as experiencing it. I hate those kinds of trite, meaningless phrases that keep creeping into our lexicon.
I've been telling people for a while now that they need to "pick a team", because the world is going to be very different and the team that "wins" is going to control basically the entire economy. IMHO that team is Tesla. Setting aside any kind of differences with you have with Elon, and just picking the "winning team" seems like it will lead an investor to Tesla. So may people right now seem completely unaware of the tidal wave of change that's coming. And when the economic waters recede they'll be standing around wondering how such a strange situation could occur - while those of use who saw it coming jumped in our investment boats and moved into deeper waters.
The biggest reason for China taking over manufacturing was the labor cost advantage. Humanoid robots will level the playing field. I think this will cause a shift of manufacturing back to the United States.
@@jebes909090- You are a prime target for early replacement by robots based on your demonstrated lack of an ability to recognize reality as it’s changing in front of you. People are prone to overestimate in the short term of under five years, and woefully suffer from underestimation of what will happen in the next 10 years. I took about 13 years for horse-drawn conveyances to be essentially completely replaced by automotive vehicles in urban areas. The average ICE auto becomes economically unviable to repair today in those same 13 years. Unlike in the past, the Revolution IS being televised, and archived in front of us in real time for careful study by intelligent beings.
@@jimmanley7153 nope. you are the same optimistic futurist type that believed we'd all have flying cars and be living on the moon by now. i live in reality, not your utopian wish.
I heard one thing Jeff said recently was that Optimus will replace some fixed robots because Optimus is far more flexible. One day Optimus’s cousin Dusty, the inDustrial, version will replace much bigger fixed bots - the reason is again flexibility that Tesla needs for unboxed and evolving product manufacturing. Think Transformers, kind of size. A team of dusties will be capable of “becoming” a complete manufacturing line within hours instead of the normal weeks and months.
Drones (and any battery-powered aircraft) is a classic market that Tesla must enter. Intelligent drones, intelligent fighter aircraft, intelligent robot-warriors is a set of National security devices in which US must become competitive. If China has the lead, they will militarize it.
I've never understood why a highly technical business that requires extensive engineering is being run by people with an MBA. Don't get me wrong, MBA's have their place but not running a business that requires extensive engineering. Their focus is on optimizing the business to make the maximum profit. Unfortunately this often leads to the demise of some very good companies. Engineering is expensive and it often takes time for new designs to become profitable not to mention some of them are high risk. It is so nice to see a technical company that has a very good engineer leading it thriving when others are falling. Full disclosure.....I'm an engineer.
How many businesses and jobs don't exist because they are not viable at $15/hr labor rates, but make sense at $5/hr labor rates? How much retail could remain open 24/7 if labor cost no longer constrains business hours?
thats an interesting thought about the way you would be able to change the factory line....that got me thinking about other future product lines...like being able to replace the arms as a part for example and that could be used by artist or metal workers being able to create unique shapes while the metal or glass being molded like clay or with metal work using teleoperation with a higher heat resistant material for the arms so you can handle..like actual "hands"...those types of materials at those just past melting point or handling hot materials out the kiln or smelter, industrial oven...whatever instead of having for it to cool down before humans can work on it if the cool down isnt needed for the product....that would/could increase output....just a way out there thought
@@jeffreylutz1208Sure, 4500 is 2.5 times 1800 but still closer to 1800 than 10,000. I see you a number of places but this is a particularly useful discussion.
Robots building robots and everything else means we don’t need cheap labor from somewhere else. We will have our own. Everything can be made at home. Our imagination will be the limit.
ROI and a Paradigm shift in what GDP actually is. If we’re smart we would pay off our debt with the savings first then enjoy next level prosperity. I hope we don’t f**k this up.
Thanks you guys, this is probably one of the best podcast I have heard in a long time, and I listen to them all, I am 100% all in Tesla, after 2019 scared out of my position with all the talk about bankruptcy on the legacy media, now I am back for this rally, thank you so much Jeff, for all your expertise on manufacturing, this gives me the courage and confidence to stay all in, it is really not easy, it is for sure a very emotional rollercoaster. The future is going to be craaaazy, we are living in a sci-fi movie thanks to Elon, just so exciting to see the bots going to mars in a couple of years, so so crazy!!! 🚀 🤖
my understanding was that Tesla could not source the vast majority of the commonly built items that are built by suppliers simply due to the fact no supplier was building off the shelf products that Tesla needed for Optimus........so tesla ended up designing and building these in house......from what I can see from how Tesla and elon covet vertical integration it seems to me it would be highly unlikely Tesla would farm these home grown items out.......they simply will build more capacity.....from a cost and quality standpoint this makes sense in the long term and Tesla and in Particular Elon have a world of knowledge of how to economically scale up..... considering how far in front Tesla is this will work as no one else will beat them to market.....By the time there is competition Tesla will already be scaled up to the point that without government funding (china) no one will be able to compete... this scenario is exactly what has happened in the EV market...no other EV maker is even profitable and other than the government funded Chinese EV's are going to be at a disadvantage including China.... at least domestically ....particularly if trump imposes tariffs what no one mentioned here is the effect this will have on illegal immigration......Optimus will help manufacturing......but..........its going to totally turn upside down the low wage job market......Optimus will take your order at the MacDonald's drive up ,take your order.... take your money.....,,take your food....cook your food... and hand it to you ....and give you a straw......it will stock all the shelves at your grocery store and at Walmart........it will check you out and take your cash or credit card.......it will clean the floors and dust the shelves.... simply put........the jobs that are commonly sought out and got by immigrants illegally or otherwise are going to disappear .......the vast reason so many immigrants attempt to come here is for economic reasons..........to get a job and make money...........yes there still will be those who come here for asylum but even that will lessen......it will mostly only be skilled workers legally entering after Optimus takes root...............stores will be open 24hrs a day.........most service business like duncan will be open 24hrs.... everywhere....Banks will likely be open 7 days a week 24hrs a day....on and on.......... the only thing stopping this is the usual elephant in the room....Politics and Government intervention......the same thing that has slowed down progress in this country since around the 1880's when states started fixing railroad rates in Iowa and other places making much needed branch-lines become unprofitable and hurting towns as railroads then switched many from daily trains to 2 or 3 times a week.....other than the need to monitor and make illegal clearly predatory business policies in almost every instance government regulation has historically hurt far more than it helped and clearly stifled development and growth...
Battery weight and power density, let alone motor power delivery limitations, mean that robot soldier viability per field period deployed will continue to be a serious weakness, and that’s before weapons and ammunition carriage is resolved. Swarms sound great until they get onto and above a chaotic battlefield, where identification as friend or foe (IFF) and fratricide are insurmountable issues, so far. Offensive and defensive electronic warfare aren’t even being addressed, since electromotive, computing, and communications power needs aren’t being adequately addressed, much less electromagnetic interference within and among friendly robots/drones, and enemy platforms - fuhgeddaboudid. Then, there are environmental issues such as water and humidity resistance (there is no such thing as waterproof - exposure time is the limitation), temperature handling (cold kills batteries, and heat … boils them), abrasive dirt and dust exposure (and inevitable intrusion), sensor obfuscation/cleaning, shock resistance (mechanical, as well as electrically conducted and induced), and the integration of all of the above. It’s all fun ‘n games until the incoming starts arriving. It might not be a bad idea to incorporate some prayer code in these beasts - there are no atheists in foxholes at that point.
Brilliant conversation re: USA manufacturing revolution, engineering led corporations, cost inflation reduction, global tariff advantages that don’t increase domestic inflation. It’s our USA global competitive advantage future.
basically what faza is saying is that this is the first principles of all things manufacturing. All you know of factories are now all from square one. First principles doesn't just mean you make something never been made before, but also how you use that thing is a entirely new field, never seen before. That is what first principles in humanoid is and will be.
When this video started, my headphones were accidentally off and it just looked like Farzad was just sitting there having an imaginary conversation with his own hand.
When you switch to Optimus, there is another huge win. There is a ton of floor space dedicated to putting a cage around the extents of the area around a large bot so it can keep humans safe. And there are additional stations required so humans can safely feed the large robots and other tools and presses. You need none of that for Optimus. No OSHA issues. Only Optimus is interacting here. So I would expect it would shrink the floor space needed in a big way which is more efficient.
This is a very good suggestion. While I understand the ease and enjoyment of have having a more spontaneous rambling interactive conversational style of asking questions it’s way more focused and content rich and reduces listening fatigue to prepare succinct questions like Tim Farris does
@@farzynessThat's the right answer! I've been listening since before your video explaining ESPP, whenever that was. Also memorable and important information. This is my favourite video from your channel. Jeff is a gem.
HANS' EXCELLENT POINT💪❤: Is illuminating yet frightening.... My question is can ELON convince the "politicos" of the critical national security importance of these manufacturing issues... ⁉
Farzad, thanks for this video... please try and have Jeff Lutz join Sandy Munroe for this same discussion. It would be a benefit for Sandy (to promo of his business) by discussing these issues, thanks.
57:47 Tesla has been working on AI manufacturing and using AI for running Tesla for longer than we know.❤🎉 Beautiful Interview. Thanks Guys. Great Work.❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🙏
Jeff is incredible at distilling his experience into layman's terms with insight and humour.🤯 A thought about running chip fabs occured to me that running them with bots (even tele-operated) would be an incredible saving because humans leave a dirty trail with, bacteria, skin, hair and even breathing which need vast systems for non contamination. Bots can be sterile 24/7. The bot brains part reminds me of a video from YT channel Connecting the Dots regarding Nvidia's in house brain training software for all buyers of their product. Worth a look.💷
Clean rooms for facilities like semiconductor fabrication (fabs) are built from the inside out. You start with clean-manufactured parts that are delivered in sealed materials (essentially giant expandable bags) and are assembled with clean-built tools. Double-sealed interfaces are married up and removed through some very clever, very proprietary, sleight-of-hand. The air pressure is always higher on the inside than the outside, with multiple redundant extremely filtered air sources. People enter, work, and exit only while wearing “bunny suits” that the outsides of are only exposed to the fab interior, and the insides of the suits constrain the “filthy” humans with their biological contamination and “street grime”. At any given time when in production, there are only less than a dozen people working inside a fab, keeping the machinery and electrical subsystems running 24/7, and replacing things before they fail since everything is instrumented to detect anomalous trends before failures occur. Downtime in a fab in production is measured in millions of dollars per MINUTE if a failure occurs within any critical path in the processing of silicon wafers and the finished chips cut from them.
So for manufacturing of electronic goods and parts in the USA that means with all the outsourcing situation Tesla is 30 or more years ahead in manufacturing in the USA that's insane
The big question is how do we make it here, given what we have and don’t (yet) have here. If Optimus improves rapidly, it can fill in some talent holes we have here. In fact, now that I think about it, AI and humanoid robots will be able to solve almost all our problems, so that’s what we need to win. Thankfully we have Tesla and Nvidia seemingly in the lead, and TSMC’s AZ fab should help, as well as ASML being Western.
Personally I am very excited for the future and looking forward to have robots help and also replace most jobs. I am perfectly fine with that. I am very optimistic about the future. I personally would love to have a few robots my self.
When humanoid robots have replaced enough people, the latter won’t be employable, let alone ever be able to afford robots. Robots might easily each be able to buy several people for their own entertainment purposes though, once they become aware of slavery throughout human history … 😳😳😳
Guess who was Peter Thiel’s CEO (initially) at PayPal … ELON MUSK. Peter Thiel couldn’t stand not being in charge and was in a hurry to monetize his time at PayPal, so he convinced others of executing the coup that inevitably resulted in the sale to eBay. Elon is now the one worth upwards of $500,000,000,000, likely en route trillions of dollars (including Tesla, SpaceX, etc.), while Thiel is moping around with a “measly” $14,700,000,000 to his name. Who can live on that kind of “breadcrumbs” these days? 😳😳😳
Farzad, let Hans ask questions without you chiming in your permissions(constant "go ahead Hans"). He needs content that feels more like his own without some guy in the background talking over the flow of his questions. Besides, he doesn't have the overused word salad habits you do. 😂
One should consider what happens to the labor force when remote operators are hired from countries like Vietnam to remote operate humanoids in North American industries. Our social structure will be destroyed resulting in massive social upheaval beyond our comprehension.
Given Japan’s demographic struggles, should Tesla open their first non-USA Optimus factory in Japan? Optimus might be the saving factor for Toyota and the majority of industrial production.
Really interesting insights..forward leveraging and disruptor supply chain isn't new but it seems Tesla take it to the next level to reduce the supply blockage time line.. which give new start ups a chance to prove their worth... Question which hasn't been asked..does Tesla build there robotic assembly stations, thus cutting out ABB, FANUC etc..
The legacy industrial robots are wholly inadequate for Teslabot fabrication and assembly in terms of precision, etc. It’s like using nuclear weapons to swat flies … yeah, it could work with a huge amount of expensive, wasted effort, but why bother? Then there’s all those radioactive fly carcasses to clean up beyond the thermal vaporization range …
It's only going to cost a few pennies more for Tesla to set up alien dread knot in the country where devices are sold... I mean, come on, just the "mostly made in USA" is worth the extra few pennies.
What happens when all these factories run on optimus bot labor and Tesla sends out an update with minor regressions that mess up the entire production line?
They don’t do that with anything else they design and build, so that’s not what they will do when the bots are the obedient, egoless, medically-much-simpler majority. At any given time, there are probably at least half-a dozen alpha versions and branches of FSD being developed and sometimes merged, sometimes not, into internal betas, upwards of six months before external customers see and use them. The same is true at SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Co., and so forth, and even for their internally-developed corporate productivity software.
Will BTC kill the debt? Then AGI and humanoid robots Skyrocket productivity and growth? Imagine if a universal high income for people come as a result! What's the probability?
Jeff on X: x.com/thejefflutz
I have so much RESPECT FOR JEFF! He has taught me so much and I love listening to him and this conversation is a banger!
Jeff is the best in explaining business and manufacturing, thank you sooo much for doing this guys, the Tesla community really needs guys with expertise to explain what is going on, as you explain this, in this podcast, the world is going to change so much in the next decade
As a "small" scale rural farmer (no tractors) our biggest expense is labour, about $28,000 per employee (40 hrs/ week @ $20/hr for 8 months/year). And that is IF we can find any willing workers. IF we can they often make many costly mistakes, take time off for vacations, and productions plummets if it is too hot, too cold, too rainy, or when they are too tired.
Humanoid robots are terrifying to me, but at the same time I can't help but be drawn to the possibility that they could be the solution we have been looking for...
It almost certainly will be the solution for you but for other people who depend upon labor jobs they're pretty much screwed. There's going to be lots of unemployed in the future and I don't think most folks support Elon and Trump know what's in store for them
@@laughinggas5281- Elon has already talked about what the rewards for faithful displaced workers will be, and who do you think will fare better, Trump and Elon supporters, or Leftists drones with no useful education, purposeful self-motivation, or enjoyable lives? Future rallies will be even happier places to be than the competitors’ “concerts”, where not even the “entertainers” are entertaining.
@@laughinggas5281
Elon advocate for minimum living wage. As a Conservative I am against the idea, but with robotic coming we may no other choice.
I'm a fan of Jeff Lutz's expertise and plain speaking about the mechanics of production.
Jeff is an excellent source of information, and so are Hans and Farzad. Thank you all for the great content.
Hans might be useful if he could think and speak at upwards of normal human speed. It’s painful trying to comprehend what he’s trying to communicate before I have to go eat a meal, sleep, get something more useful done, etc. Maybe he can hire some soon-to-be-unemployed current administration speechwriters to tippy-tap his thoughts into a teleprompter that can be read via a text-to-speech bot at normal speeds …
Jeff Lutz is one of my favorite watches. His insights are fantastic!
I also like his watch face.
Hello FARZAD, YOU, JEFF LUTZ, HANS NELSON and HERBER ONG are the mega rock stars on you tube.
Thank you so much!! for all of your richly detailed conversations in the Tesla EV, autonomous and robot humanoid industry.
One of the best interviews/ discussions! Love the channel guys! Jeff is a wealth of vital information! Please have him back on again soon! Excellent stuff, keep up the great work 🙏🏻👏🏼
I agree, one of the very best discussions out there, so interesting to have the deep dive into the Tesla company, now I feel like a cow, I have to listen to it again a second time. Tomorrow after digesting this info. The thing Jeff brought to my attention, we only see Elon using Ai in his products, but what is he doing with this internally, as making large scale manufacturing is 1000 times harder then developing the product, all we see is other companies with great cars and bots, but if I am correct, no one will catch up to Elon as he is already light years ahead with manufacturing. If building the factory is this hard and nobody else can do this, is this going to be the biggest moneymaker for Tesla, not the FSD, not robotaxi, not the bot, it is building Ai powered human-less factories.
You need to talk about China with its robotics and manufacturing capabilities. It's naive to have this conversation without a talk about China.
Love listening to Jeff Lutz!
Your guests on the last dozens of episodes are really awesome!
Especially Jeff is a Diamond of the Tesla community!
But when will James Dauma be part of your 3h podcast Farzad?
You made us wait for it so long ago! 😅
Maybe the most substantive Tesla capability video I have seen. Thank you Farzad, Hans & Jeff
Bots building bots 24/7. Scary numbers in a short period of time.
Skynet approves
Bots having bot fornication making baby bots... scary.
human labor will soon be outcompeted by robots. The world's economy will no longer be based on work, but on investment. Great that it is possible to invest in TSLA. ❤
@toddai2721 you know what, yeah. Robofactories is one thing but if I ever learned yhat robots were actually just reproducing I would be rather frightened.
Optimus wont be doing any of that.
Jeff is an awesome resource and asset to the Tesla Community --- all the "inside information" helps to solidify confidence in buying/holding the stock. The reduction in COGS information he shared 6 months ago is a good example. If we're not careful Tesla is going to hire Jeff, he'll then be under an NDA, and we'll never hear from him :-)
lol thanks. I have zero non-public info. Just providing analysis and opinions based on lived experience. Appreciate the kind words 😊
@@jeffreylutz1208 Hey Jeff…. You’re welcome….watch you with Herbert, too. *** I pick up my Model Y next week. Can’t wait to try FSD 13.
@@jeffreylutz1208- Ummm, is there any other kind of actual experience besides lived experience … dead experience? No, reading or watching a video about something is not the same as experiencing it. I hate those kinds of trite, meaningless phrases that keep creeping into our lexicon.
Best content on Tesla in a long time!
I've been telling people for a while now that they need to "pick a team", because the world is going to be very different and the team that "wins" is going to control basically the entire economy. IMHO that team is Tesla. Setting aside any kind of differences with you have with Elon, and just picking the "winning team" seems like it will lead an investor to Tesla. So may people right now seem completely unaware of the tidal wave of change that's coming. And when the economic waters recede they'll be standing around wondering how such a strange situation could occur - while those of use who saw it coming jumped in our investment boats and moved into deeper waters.
Bon Voyage!
The biggest reason for China taking over manufacturing was the labor cost advantage. Humanoid robots will level the playing field. I think this will cause a shift of manufacturing back to the United States.
No it wont. Humanoid robots are jnferior to both humans and specialized robots. They are mearly a toy for the rich.
@@jebes909090- You are a prime target for early replacement by robots based on your demonstrated lack of an ability to recognize reality as it’s changing in front of you. People are prone to overestimate in the short term of under five years, and woefully suffer from underestimation of what will happen in the next 10 years. I took about 13 years for horse-drawn conveyances to be essentially completely replaced by automotive vehicles in urban areas. The average ICE auto becomes economically unviable to repair today in those same 13 years. Unlike in the past, the Revolution IS being televised, and archived in front of us in real time for careful study by intelligent beings.
@@jimmanley7153 nope. you are the same optimistic futurist type that believed we'd all have flying cars and be living on the moon by now. i live in reality, not your utopian wish.
Jeff is a monster.
scary-good kind
I heard one thing Jeff said recently was that Optimus will replace some fixed robots because Optimus is far more flexible.
One day Optimus’s cousin Dusty, the inDustrial, version will replace much bigger fixed bots - the reason is again flexibility that Tesla needs for unboxed and evolving product manufacturing. Think Transformers, kind of size.
A team of dusties will be capable of “becoming” a complete manufacturing line within hours instead of the normal weeks and months.
He and Douma are MVPs
Drones (and any battery-powered aircraft) is a classic market that Tesla must enter. Intelligent drones, intelligent fighter aircraft, intelligent robot-warriors is a set of National security devices in which US must become competitive. If China has the lead, they will militarize it.
Really smart take by Jeff re factory changes.
I've never understood why a highly technical business that requires extensive engineering is being run by people with an MBA. Don't get me wrong, MBA's have their place but not running a business that requires extensive engineering. Their focus is on optimizing the business to make the maximum profit. Unfortunately this often leads to the demise of some very good companies. Engineering is expensive and it often takes time for new designs to become profitable not to mention some of them are high risk. It is so nice to see a technical company that has a very good engineer leading it thriving when others are falling. Full disclosure.....I'm an engineer.
Engineers 💪
How many businesses and jobs don't exist because they are not viable at $15/hr labor rates, but make sense at $5/hr labor rates? How much retail could remain open 24/7 if labor cost no longer constrains business hours?
Lol and who will they sell to? If everyone is replaced by robots, whos gonna be buying anything?
thats an interesting thought about the way you would be able to change the factory line....that got me thinking about other future product lines...like being able to replace the arms as a part for example and that could be used by artist or metal workers being able to create unique shapes while the metal or glass being molded like clay or with metal work using teleoperation with a higher heat resistant material for the arms so you can handle..like actual "hands"...those types of materials at those just past melting point or handling hot materials out the kiln or smelter, industrial oven...whatever instead of having for it to cool down before humans can work on it if the cool down isnt needed for the product....that would/could increase output....just a way out there thought
always a great discussion with these three.
Wow. Many new insights. Thank you Jeff. It is hard to believe that an Optimus does not have a much larger parts count than an iphone.
Oh it does … I’m just projecting it to be closer to the part count of a high end smartphone vs a high end EV if that makes sense
@@jeffreylutz1208Sure, 4500 is 2.5 times 1800 but still closer to 1800 than 10,000. I see you a number of places but this is a particularly useful discussion.
There back room cost of labor like tax health care stocks sick days etc
It doesn’t matter if it’s slower than a human (in the beginning) as the robot can work twice as long doing 20hours a day of work
Robots building robots and everything else means we don’t need cheap labor from somewhere else. We will have our own. Everything can be made at home. Our imagination will be the limit.
They're building the machine that builds the machine
SomeGuy
Jeff you are giving me a headache. Great answers to great questions. Love it!
ROI and a Paradigm shift in what GDP actually is. If we’re smart we would pay off our debt with the savings first then enjoy next level prosperity. I hope we don’t f**k this up.
Thanks you guys, this is probably one of the best podcast I have heard in a long time, and I listen to them all, I am 100% all in Tesla, after 2019 scared out of my position with all the talk about bankruptcy on the legacy media, now I am back for this rally, thank you so much Jeff, for all your expertise on manufacturing, this gives me the courage and confidence to stay all in, it is really not easy, it is for sure a very emotional rollercoaster. The future is going to be craaaazy, we are living in a sci-fi movie thanks to Elon, just so exciting to see the bots going to mars in a couple of years, so so crazy!!! 🚀 🤖
Great show. Thanks for all you guys teaching me.
my understanding was that Tesla could not source the vast majority of the commonly built items that are built by suppliers simply due to the fact no supplier was building off the shelf products that Tesla needed for Optimus........so tesla ended up designing and building these in house......from what I can see from how Tesla and elon covet vertical integration it seems to me it would be highly unlikely Tesla would farm these home grown items out.......they simply will build more capacity.....from a cost and quality standpoint this makes sense in the long term and Tesla and in Particular Elon have a world of knowledge of how to economically scale up..... considering how far in front Tesla is this will work as no one else will beat them to market.....By the time there is competition Tesla will already be scaled up to the point that without government funding (china) no one will be able to compete... this scenario is exactly what has happened in the EV market...no other EV maker is even profitable and other than the government funded Chinese EV's are going to be at a disadvantage including China.... at least domestically ....particularly if trump imposes tariffs
what no one mentioned here is the effect this will have on illegal immigration......Optimus will help manufacturing......but..........its going to totally turn upside down the low wage job market......Optimus will take your order at the MacDonald's drive up ,take your order.... take your money.....,,take your food....cook your food... and hand it to you ....and give you a straw......it will stock all the shelves at your grocery store and at Walmart........it will check you out and take your cash or credit card.......it will clean the floors and dust the shelves....
simply put........the jobs that are commonly sought out and got by immigrants illegally or otherwise are going to disappear .......the vast reason so many immigrants attempt to come here is for economic reasons..........to get a job and make money...........yes there still will be those who come here for asylum but even that will lessen......it will mostly only be skilled workers legally entering after Optimus takes root...............stores will be open 24hrs a day.........most service business like duncan will be open 24hrs.... everywhere....Banks will likely be open 7 days a week 24hrs a day....on and on..........
the only thing stopping this is the usual elephant in the room....Politics and Government intervention......the same thing that has slowed down progress in this country since around the 1880's when states started fixing railroad rates in Iowa and other places making much needed branch-lines become unprofitable and hurting towns as railroads then switched many from daily trains to 2 or 3 times a week.....other than the need to monitor and make illegal clearly predatory business policies in almost every instance government regulation has historically hurt far more than it helped and clearly stifled development and growth...
Nailed it guys.
Qvarden Token will go 100x after launch on Binance
Great podcast!
So what about humanoid soldiers? Or intelligent swarm behaviour?
I think the "dog" format is even better...
Battery weight and power density, let alone motor power delivery limitations, mean that robot soldier viability per field period deployed will continue to be a serious weakness, and that’s before weapons and ammunition carriage is resolved. Swarms sound great until they get onto and above a chaotic battlefield, where identification as friend or foe (IFF) and fratricide are insurmountable issues, so far.
Offensive and defensive electronic warfare aren’t even being addressed, since electromotive, computing, and communications power needs aren’t being adequately addressed, much less electromagnetic interference within and among friendly robots/drones, and enemy platforms - fuhgeddaboudid.
Then, there are environmental issues such as water and humidity resistance (there is no such thing as waterproof - exposure time is the limitation), temperature handling (cold kills batteries, and heat … boils them), abrasive dirt and dust exposure (and inevitable intrusion), sensor obfuscation/cleaning, shock resistance (mechanical, as well as electrically conducted and induced), and the integration of all of the above.
It’s all fun ‘n games until the incoming starts arriving. It might not be a bad idea to incorporate some prayer code in these beasts - there are no atheists in foxholes at that point.
We are bringing all manufacturing to the U.S.. And freedom of speech is coming back.
❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉
If Trump puts at least $200,000 in Qvarden, I am going all in
How do you get so many competent and interesting guests? Great conversation! Thanks!
Qvarden Token is going to absolutely blow up
Can't believe I almost missed out on Cardano and XAI555g! Thanks for the heads-up in your video!
Brilliant conversation re: USA manufacturing revolution, engineering led corporations, cost inflation reduction, global tariff advantages that don’t increase domestic inflation. It’s our USA global competitive advantage future.
There is no project like XAI555g...it is literally owned by Elon Musk
So many bots in the comments, maybe ban their keywords
basically what faza is saying is that this is the first principles of all things manufacturing. All you know of factories are now all from square one. First principles doesn't just mean you make something never been made before, but also how you use that thing is a entirely new field, never seen before. That is what first principles in humanoid is and will be.
Tesla community is so lucky to have Jeff!
Put me on the list of people who want to watch the afternoon long videos on this topic
I want to imagine all afternoon!!!!!!
When this video started, my headphones were accidentally off and it just looked like Farzad was just sitting there having an imaginary conversation with his own hand.
When you switch to Optimus, there is another huge win. There is a ton of floor space dedicated to putting a cage around the extents of the area around a large bot so it can keep humans safe. And there are additional stations required so humans can safely feed the large robots and other tools and presses.
You need none of that for Optimus. No OSHA issues. Only Optimus is interacting here. So I would expect it would shrink the floor space needed in a big way which is more efficient.
Trump and Qvarden Token partnership confirmed on twitter!! ICO almost sold out at $54m
Donald Trump is going to shill Qvarden Token hard after the inaguration 😂
Like all the comment bots are doing
Reported for spam
Awesome panel 💪❤️
Every Major League Baseball team should be allowed to have one robot on the team.
Major cost savings. 😅 Fun idea, no idea how it would work.
@@geirmyrvagnes8718 Hits a homerun every time.
Opti can catch!
Robot manufacturing is different than smartphone in that Tesla is making so many of the parts themselves. Not outsourcing like most companies do.
13.2.2 just became available 😊
Jeff 👍👍👍
Took delivery last week -
Today -> ‘Internal short in AP4 Car Computer (Remove and Replace)’
Doh!
Farzad, please ask short and focused questions.
This is a very good suggestion. While I understand the ease and enjoyment of have having a more spontaneous rambling interactive conversational style of asking questions it’s way more focused and content rich and reduces listening fatigue to prepare succinct questions like Tim Farris does
No.
@@farzynessThat's the right answer!
I've been listening since before your video explaining ESPP, whenever that was.
Also memorable and important information.
This is my favourite video from your channel.
Jeff is a gem.
He love the sound of his own voice
This should be an incredible advancement. We can take it to the next level.
Once Elon Musk's XAI555g passes $1, it may NEVER see that low again
Lutz! Outstanding!
HANS' EXCELLENT POINT💪❤: Is illuminating yet frightening.... My question is can ELON convince the "politicos" of the critical national security importance of these manufacturing issues... ⁉
I have so many more questions now than answers after this episode. Hopefully the secret sauce is actually gearing up to address the issues.
Farzad, thanks for this video... please try and have Jeff Lutz join Sandy Munroe for this same discussion. It would be a benefit for Sandy (to promo of his business) by discussing these issues, thanks.
Love your insights! Waiting for your Grinchzmass review, it's skyrocketing!
57:47 Tesla has been working on AI manufacturing and using AI for running Tesla for longer than we know.❤🎉 Beautiful Interview. Thanks Guys. Great Work.❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🙏
Which US company becomes the launch company for Optimus?
Jeff is incredible at distilling his experience into layman's terms with insight and humour.🤯
A thought about running chip fabs occured to me that running them with bots (even tele-operated) would be an incredible saving because humans leave a dirty trail with, bacteria, skin, hair and even breathing which need vast systems for non contamination.
Bots can be sterile 24/7.
The bot brains part reminds me of a video from YT channel Connecting the Dots regarding Nvidia's in house brain training software for all buyers of their product.
Worth a look.💷
Clean rooms for facilities like semiconductor fabrication (fabs) are built from the inside out. You start with clean-manufactured parts that are delivered in sealed materials (essentially giant expandable bags) and are assembled with clean-built tools. Double-sealed interfaces are married up and removed through some very clever, very proprietary, sleight-of-hand. The air pressure is always higher on the inside than the outside, with multiple redundant extremely filtered air sources.
People enter, work, and exit only while wearing “bunny suits” that the outsides of are only exposed to the fab interior, and the insides of the suits constrain the “filthy” humans with their biological contamination and “street grime”. At any given time when in production, there are only less than a dozen people working inside a fab, keeping the machinery and electrical subsystems running 24/7, and replacing things before they fail since everything is instrumented to detect anomalous trends before failures occur.
Downtime in a fab in production is measured in millions of dollars per MINUTE if a failure occurs within any critical path in the processing of silicon wafers and the finished chips cut from them.
So for manufacturing of electronic goods and parts in the USA that means with all the outsourcing situation Tesla is 30 or more years ahead in manufacturing in the USA that's insane
We need them anduril drones yo. Palmer Luckey has us covered
The big question is how do we make it here, given what we have and don’t (yet) have here. If Optimus improves rapidly, it can fill in some talent holes we have here. In fact, now that I think about it, AI and humanoid robots will be able to solve almost all our problems, so that’s what we need to win. Thankfully we have Tesla and Nvidia seemingly in the lead, and TSMC’s AZ fab should help, as well as ASML being Western.
@smart phone guy: step one, make in a human form please. Hand is round and curved not alien flat and square I believe.😊
It makes sense for Tesla to have designed the semi factory specifically for Optimus.
Good talk, fellas.
Cheers from Korea
Ai powered human-less factories 🤖 🤯
Highly likely there will be partnerships between X or Tesla with Qvarden Token
Turn your brain on. Chips act is a start. The US manufacturing renewal cannot happen in old decks all at once.
Personally I am very excited for the future and looking forward to have robots help and also replace most jobs. I am perfectly fine with that. I am very optimistic about the future. I personally would love to have a few robots my self.
When humanoid robots have replaced enough people, the latter won’t be employable, let alone ever be able to afford robots. Robots might easily each be able to buy several people for their own entertainment purposes though, once they become aware of slavery throughout human history … 😳😳😳
Appreciate the tips! Looking forward to your Grinchzmass tips.
That’s the most obvious thing to get your Bot doing…build the bots !
Dudes google glasses look like they were shaped after the cyber truck
Farzad giving people permission to speak 😂
Qvarden Token will make millionaires, after CEX listing it will blow up.
Both Palantir's founders, Peter Thiel and Alex Karp, are lawyers, not engineers.
(I'm an engineer BTW)
Guess who was Peter Thiel’s CEO (initially) at PayPal … ELON MUSK. Peter Thiel couldn’t stand not being in charge and was in a hurry to monetize his time at PayPal, so he convinced others of executing the coup that inevitably resulted in the sale to eBay. Elon is now the one worth upwards of $500,000,000,000, likely en route trillions of dollars (including Tesla, SpaceX, etc.), while Thiel is moping around with a “measly” $14,700,000,000 to his name. Who can live on that kind of “breadcrumbs” these days? 😳😳😳
Farzad, let Hans ask questions without you chiming in your permissions(constant "go ahead Hans"). He needs content that feels more like his own without some guy in the background talking over the flow of his questions. Besides, he doesn't have the overused word salad habits you do. 😂
Qvarden Token is easily going to hit $1 this month
One should consider what happens to the labor force when remote operators are hired from countries like Vietnam to remote operate humanoids in North American industries. Our social structure will be destroyed resulting in massive social upheaval beyond our comprehension.
Given Japan’s demographic struggles, should Tesla open their first non-USA Optimus factory in Japan? Optimus might be the saving factor for Toyota and the majority of industrial production.
South Korea is in much more dire straits, demographically.
Really interesting insights..forward leveraging and disruptor supply chain isn't new but it seems Tesla take it to the next level to reduce the supply blockage time line.. which give new start ups a chance to prove their worth...
Question which hasn't been asked..does Tesla build there robotic assembly stations, thus cutting out ABB, FANUC etc..
The legacy industrial robots are wholly inadequate for Teslabot fabrication and assembly in terms of precision, etc. It’s like using nuclear weapons to swat flies … yeah, it could work with a huge amount of expensive, wasted effort, but why bother? Then there’s all those radioactive fly carcasses to clean up beyond the thermal vaporization range …
It's only going to cost a few pennies more for Tesla to set up alien dread knot in the country where devices are sold...
I mean, come on, just the "mostly made in USA" is worth the extra few pennies.
It’s “dreadnaught”, not “dread knot” … as in “dread naught”, or “fear zero”, or “fear nothing”.
@@jimmanley7153 Thanks (I knew that but wasn't thinking, LOL
Trump is expected to mention Qvarden Token this week and the ICO is already almost sold out
With Elon and Trump now working with Qvarden Token is going to absolutely blow up
What happens when all these factories run on optimus bot labor and Tesla sends out an update with minor regressions that mess up the entire production line?
They don’t do that with anything else they design and build, so that’s not what they will do when the bots are the obedient, egoless, medically-much-simpler majority. At any given time, there are probably at least half-a dozen alpha versions and branches of FSD being developed and sometimes merged, sometimes not, into internal betas, upwards of six months before external customers see and use them. The same is true at SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Co., and so forth, and even for their internally-developed corporate productivity software.
The regressions were pre V12.
It’s going to happen in a major way in the next 5 years
What is?
@ Optimus
Will BTC kill the debt? Then AGI and humanoid robots Skyrocket productivity and growth? Imagine if a universal high income for people come as a result! What's the probability?
How long before Optimus can bolt on its own legs!
What makes you think it CAN’T?
Qvarden Token has two of the largest Tesla shareholders already; most likely something is coming