1) Retail sales up 0.9% 2) House prices rising fast 3) Rents rising fast 4) 2 consecutive rises for the ABS monthly inflation read 5) Unemployment at 3.6% 6) VFacts car sales VERY strong for the October read 7) Inflation still significantly above the cash rate. 9) Brisbane traffic is busy as hell !! Yep, plenty of reasons to raise.
I like your analysis, but I think it's based too much on fudged numbers, which make for a rosier picture of the economy, which is what a lenders advocate wants to present.
In my suburb (Hallett Cove SA - ABS 4923 dwellings) we have literally run out of houses on the market! The market can't function with nothing to buy...huge price increases when something does list. Gaslighting over the inflation reasons from (some) economists and the Treasurer isn't helping.
I dont think RBA cares about mortgage cliff, or recession, nor do they care about unemployment rate. I remember bullock said she want unemployment to be 4.5, its still too low.
We’ve had 13 rate rises and inflation is still high because it’s not consumer driven, it’s government policy here and in other countries. Governments are spending too much money pushing up inflation.
Too many FIRB Residential Investor permits being handed it. Its now stopping downsizing seniors who are moving from big homes to smaller homes that are now blocked because off FIRBs and superannuation housing investors buying cheap(er) stock....
Raising rates won’t fix anything, access to money (debt) is causing this rise in inflation. Tightening of lending will easily address the issue. But please don’t
Caveat superannuation as an extension of a primary residence for bank lending. Or refund all voluntary contributions and quarantine employer contributions for pensioners at 67. Turn off housing inside super and stop people gaming the super pool and bond rate to buy more houses inside super. Its draining stock and diverting it into 2nd homes, AIRBNB, commercial, vacant etc so it's draining the "known supply".
What a great format, bugger it's taken me so long to find it. Found it via the "Spanian" interview of all things. it's "almost" like 2 blokes having a discussion with a couple of beers, without others interrupting. Much better than tv bs.
Look forward to this podcast every month. Kouky is great and Bouris is ok too 😊. Disagree with your hold call though. My guess is a 15 basis point rise to 4.25%
inflation is still way to high !! economy is still overheated they must raise rates to cool demand . theyve raised the cash rate to 4.1% and core inflation is still at 5.2 % way above target , saving the housing market is not part of there mandate !!
Isn't the SMSF & Superannuation pool saving the housing market? It should be called "Mortgage Offset" because it appears Governments and Banks are using it that way to pump and dump households....
Great podcast guys. Please keep it coming. For the sake of transparency and to avoid any kind of conflict of interest, would you be willing to disclose how many properties do you own either individually or via company/trust etc ? Frankly, at times your comments come across as pro housing market hence the question. Thanks
So did Kouky just say that ABS data is June for December....so MYEFO meeting is based on June data? And May Budget 2024 is based on September data coming out in December?
The question is what is the new stimulate neutral or restrictive rate range ? Because coming off 0.1% the new stimulate rate will still seem restrictive based on current borrowing levels !
Question for Kouky: If RBA sees economy slowing and decides to not increase or increase less often, how do Banks lifting apparently in .40 basis points tomorrow or any other month, what does that do to the economy and why are Banks lifting separately not be an issue....?
Banks have to ensure capital adequacy ratios , basel 3 I think we're up to. Failure to do so means the banks risk liquidity crisis and collapse followed by bail out or bail in. Not pretty either way.
What I don’t understand is why the RBA are trying to stem inflation by making things harder for the segment of the population with the least money! Madness.
How about a new idea... We can slice immigration hence we wouldn't have so much pressure on housing. More increase in available rental stock. Never mention on here as a strategy.
You guys have great on screen chemistry, do more vids together please, and Mark youre funny at times with your quirks 😁 Just dont talk over each other too much.
Looks like a primary school demo. Lot of feel and vibe about the explanations of the data points. Does this fella have a finance/lenders bias? It feels that way listening to him.
Great podcast guys . Stephen is the man at explaining things so the average punter can understand what’s going on . I’ve read the articles Ross Gittins has written . He’s a legend as well . No bullshit just the facts
Second to that, what do you get when you cross high household debt, big home loans with borrowers overcommitting during low interest rate periods and 2020 housing boom, with high interest rates, high inflation and a potential uptick in unemployment as per the RBAs forecast? Does there come a point where a larger % of the population are forced to sell their houses increasing supply but due to high rates, high unemployment and high inflation (capped borrowing capacity) that demand falls lower?
Rates will increase. We then get recession in mid 2024. Then rates start to drop. History repeats…always. Let’s not complicate this cycle. The big crash has not started. it’s coming though. 🎈Inflation is here to stay. We haven’t seen anything yet….
Both must have big investments portfolios.. therefore this biased analysis.. as an average earning family, extremely frustrated of seeing everything going up day by day.. not a single thing i can say drop prices.. and they are talking about rate cut.. some of the reasons they pointed make no sense at all..
1) Retail sales up 0.9%
2) House prices rising fast
3) Rents rising fast
4) 2 consecutive rises for the ABS monthly inflation read
5) Unemployment at 3.6%
6) VFacts car sales VERY strong for the October read
7) Inflation still significantly above the cash rate.
9) Brisbane traffic is busy as hell !!
Yep, plenty of reasons to raise.
You called it!
So keep raising rates until the economy is in the toilet 🚽 ……?
I’m definitely feeling it at the supermarket, high inflation has turned me into a devotee of Aldi
This channel is underrated
I like your analysis, but I think it's based too much on fudged numbers, which make for a rosier picture of the economy, which is what a lenders advocate wants to present.
In my suburb (Hallett Cove SA - ABS 4923 dwellings) we have literally run out of houses on the market! The market can't function with nothing to buy...huge price increases when something does list. Gaslighting over the inflation reasons from (some) economists and the Treasurer isn't helping.
I dont think RBA cares about mortgage cliff, or recession, nor do they care about unemployment rate. I remember bullock said she want unemployment to be 4.5, its still too low.
She’ll up the rate just to prove she’s “independent” of Albo and Chalmers.
@@InfinityIsland2203she just raised them
We’ve had 13 rate rises and inflation is still high because it’s not consumer driven, it’s government policy here and in other countries.
Governments are spending too much money pushing up inflation.
Too many FIRB Residential Investor permits being handed it. Its now stopping downsizing seniors who are moving from big homes to smaller homes that are now blocked because off FIRBs and superannuation housing investors buying cheap(er) stock....
Raising rates won’t fix anything, access to money (debt) is causing this rise in inflation.
Tightening of lending will easily address the issue. But please don’t
Caveat superannuation as an extension of a primary residence for bank lending. Or refund all voluntary contributions and quarantine employer contributions for pensioners at 67. Turn off housing inside super and stop people gaming the super pool and bond rate to buy more houses inside super. Its draining stock and diverting it into 2nd homes, AIRBNB, commercial, vacant etc so it's draining the "known supply".
What a great format, bugger it's taken me so long to find it. Found it via the "Spanian" interview of all things. it's "almost" like 2 blokes having a discussion with a couple of beers, without others interrupting. Much better than tv bs.
Look forward to this podcast every month. Kouky is great and Bouris is ok too 😊. Disagree with your hold call though. My guess is a 15 basis point rise to 4.25%
Aus government is still printing money.
We have weak exchange rate $0.65 c which adds to inflation pressure
inflation is still way to high !! economy is still overheated they must raise rates to cool demand . theyve raised the cash rate to 4.1% and core inflation is still at 5.2 % way above target , saving the housing market is not part of there mandate !!
They still won't raise it though.
They need more tools, the raising of rates has had nil effect.
Plus OP is renting and needs a house lol
The housing market ain't going to crash mate. You'll be buying higher
Isn't the SMSF & Superannuation pool saving the housing market? It should be called "Mortgage Offset" because it appears Governments and Banks are using it that way to pump and dump households....
Great to watch no BS media compared to the nonsense information on Ch7,9 and 10
Do people still use msm for information?
Its just entertainment
Great podcast guys. Please keep it coming.
For the sake of transparency and to avoid any kind of conflict of interest, would you be willing to disclose how many properties do you own either individually or via company/trust etc ?
Frankly, at times your comments come across as pro housing market hence the question.
Thanks
Of course they do, Mark Bouris entire business is reliant upon home lending, people buying homes.
Just another important podcast ,you expertise I'll think poeble,respect you Opinion, and trust,keep on the Ball you to,wise 🦉😇
Get ready for some very hard times everyone.
Good luck
So did Kouky just say that ABS data is June for December....so MYEFO meeting is based on June data? And May Budget 2024 is based on September data coming out in December?
The question is what is the new stimulate neutral or restrictive rate range ? Because coming off 0.1% the new stimulate rate will still seem restrictive based on current borrowing levels !
"Cost of living" equals inflation.
Why don't we call it what it is.
Question for Kouky: If RBA sees economy slowing and decides to not increase or increase less often, how do Banks lifting apparently in .40 basis points tomorrow or any other month, what does that do to the economy and why are Banks lifting separately not be an issue....?
Banks have to ensure capital adequacy ratios , basel 3 I think we're up to.
Failure to do so means the banks risk liquidity crisis and collapse followed by bail out or bail in.
Not pretty either way.
Great pod. Keep up the good work guys 👍
Great content 👏👍
Thank you
Still the best analysis out there!
What I don’t understand is why the RBA are trying to stem inflation by making things harder for the segment of the population with the least money! Madness.
Because big money just hunkers down or runs.
ie. Capital flight
how great would it be if Australia had fixed rates for the term of the loan.
Bank failure, woot
Fantastic analysis..many thanks!
Glad you liked it!
We will never build that many. It's not possible...
Should add crypto to your chart
A.I will eventually bring the raise in productivity your looking for.
How about a new idea... We can slice immigration hence we wouldn't have so much pressure on housing. More increase in available rental stock. Never mention on here as a strategy.
Its so obvious one is tempted to wonder what is the real reason
They raised.
Up 0.25% to 4.35%
You guys have great on screen chemistry, do more vids together please, and Mark youre funny at times with your quirks 😁
Just dont talk over each other too much.
Looks like a primary school demo. Lot of feel and vibe about the explanations of the data points. Does this fella have a finance/lenders bias? It feels that way listening to him.
Great podcast guys . Stephen is the man at explaining things so the average punter can understand what’s going on . I’ve read the articles Ross Gittins has written . He’s a legend as well . No bullshit just the facts
Do banks pay more for the money they increase interest on? I say no, prove me wrong
Can you shutdown the country and keep it afloat artificially with stimulus for 12-18 months and not be hit with severe repercussions? Time will tell.
Second to that, what do you get when you cross high household debt, big home loans with borrowers overcommitting during low interest rate periods and 2020 housing boom, with high interest rates, high inflation and a potential uptick in unemployment as per the RBAs forecast?
Does there come a point where a larger % of the population are forced to sell their houses increasing supply but due to high rates, high unemployment and high inflation (capped borrowing capacity) that demand falls lower?
Let's see if Michelle Bullock is wise. If she hikes, she's overconfident.
Rates will increase. We then get recession in mid 2024. Then rates start to drop. History repeats…always. Let’s not complicate this cycle. The big crash has not started. it’s coming though. 🎈Inflation is here to stay. We haven’t seen anything yet….
Both must have big investments portfolios.. therefore this biased analysis.. as an average earning family, extremely frustrated of seeing everything going up day by day.. not a single thing i can say drop prices.. and they are talking about rate cut.. some of the reasons they pointed make no sense at all..
get podcast