"I think she wants us to go backwards" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ต.ค. 2024
- After yet another rate increase in November, Mark Bouris and economist Stephen Koukoulas return for their final monthly episode of 2023 before the RBA meets on Tuesday, the 5th of December where RBA Governor Michele Bullock and the Board decide whether or not to keep the official cash rate on hold at 4.35%.
[Recorded before the 5/12/23 RBA announcement].
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What's your prediction for Tuesday? Is the RBA going to HIKE or HOLD rates? 👇
Hodor
hold
Hold.
Retail sales were modest for October, although I reckon Novembers will be up.
House prices outside of Perth and Brisbane are moderating.
This insane immigration is sure to start lifting the unemployment rate.
Make no mistake, Aussies by and large, seem to be coping well.
Hike - insurance and reputation for the new gov
The RBA definitely wants to HIKE.
In normal times the interest rate needs to be higher than the inflation rate,
in order to keep inflation low.
It’s fear of what the economy will do, that may make them pause.
RBA Rate rise is what I see. As for playing catch up with immigration, it seems to me that whenever the government tries it's hand at playing catch up, we all suffer. How about the government develop a plan that considers and caters to all, or as many as possible, of the inputs that make a successful policy.
As for variable GST. I fear the gov't will just get addicted to the 15%.
I must say though, great job Labor and Greens distracting everyone with the voice etc, while the economy nose dives from the inside out.
All of their predictions have been wrong 😂
The variable GST idea is insane. As if government wouldn't use that for evil things.
if gst is increased do you really think it will come down again when things are good? doubt it. Government spending on garbage is the real issue
What a welcome relief, two honest hard working Aussies, enlightening & educating the Australian public with their knowledge... I look forward to your regular podcasts. Very insightful and reassuring. Thank you Mark & Stephen. Our Government & RBA are so out of touch with its constituents.
The decline in living standard that comes with mass immigration is so much worse than merely ‘the decline in per capita economic numbers’.
You could be a billionaire thanks to ‘big Australia’ policy, but what good does it do you when everywhere you go, everything you do you have to queue?.
Being a multi millionaire can’t buy your way out of traffic jams, Afford you peace and quiet at camping grounds across the country, or at local fishing spots, or at the hospital, etc etc.
Decline of living ‘standard’, and I repeat standard, is what no amount of extra income can bring back.
It’s like working away your youth, No matter how rich you get, you can’t buy back your youth.
Why is it always, 'Increase Taxes'
How about reduce size of Government?
I don't know about raising GST Mark. Inflation has already increased the price of everything. GST increase is just more inflation and it will hurt people even more at the supermarket etc that are struggling. Maybe I don't understand?
It's just a money grab. Inflation does not affect GST, as GST is a fixed % of the value of goods and services sold.
Variable GST us a great idea. See if you can keep pushing it Mark. This cou try is ready for some decent reform
While adjusting the GST rate up and down might seem like a good idea, as a small business owner, I can tell you that varying the GST would cause a massive headache for all businesses that have to deal with collecting and paying it.
I'm a teacher, I'm picking up a 2nd job to make ends meet.
GST is regressive and affects people on fixed incomes the most .
Capped CGT concessions would be a fairer way to raise taxes.
Housing shortage in Australia is not a real issue. Housing distribution is an issue. Population of 18 an over is 14.6m number of dwellings is 10.6m. Or total population 26.5m with average households at 2.5 requires 10.6m dwellings. Around 4m surplus.
Interesting take!
I think you may be under-reading the number of adults however. Would it be closer to 19 million?
That still would result in quite a surplus of housing however.
@@williamcrossan9333 On the other hand, international students usually only rent a room or even a garage, rather than a whole house. They were said to be the main reason for the rental crisis.
10 percent 10 years ago.?
how about 10 percent every 10 years.
In a hundred years all your income will be going to the GST.
So to progress the society you increase the GST.
That's great for those whos bills and weekly expenses are only a small portion of their income.
The rich will not be effected.
Guys, think before you say these things.
How about tax the corporate world and the rich.?
Not the bottom of the barrel 😞
Increasing the GST is another short term short sited approach. If it goes up it will never come back down. Aussies are already over taxed and the Government already wastes too much of what it collects. What's the solution when this rolls around again? GST 20% then 25%.
Be veeery careful with increasing the rate of GST. GST is a percentage and does not NEED to be increased just because its always been 10% ........ Australians are not mugs! A temporary increase of GST to tackle inflation has merit as it spreads the burden across all of society including those who do not have a mortgages and are said to be still spending. The issue is, that politicians get addicted to the additional revenue and are not known for their discipline in restoring it back to its standard rate, so this will need a pre-agreed limit that is tied to the higher end of the RBA's inflation rate target. This will increase the rate of cash transactions, particularly with trades people, which may be an issue but it would also help to keep cash alive! Much of this has been experienced in the UK, but as I said beware because their equivalent of GST is VAT (valued added tax) which started as 10% and is now 20%! .......... although it is more selective in the way in which it is applied.
Great podcast
Thanks for listening
WA housing market is still growing exponentially.
Feel bad for people who struggle to get a rental in this day in age, I knew in 2009 this would one day happen.
U can't make money anymore in Sydney to tough all u can afford is a unit and they don't go up much. Two people need to work if u get sick your back renting it's struggle street. Childcare to expensive
Just leave RBA do its job guys, ever since Covid people seem to be cashed up for some reason which is causing inflation, all the homes in my area despite so called higher rated are being snapped up in the first open. Dont forget people with savings , you never mention them, why?
Bouris is very intelligent u don't make 200 million dollars being a dummy. A fool and his money is soon parted
I've been talking about a variable GST rate for years. Makes perfect sense. Yeah people wouldn't like it, but if GST were to increase, let's say, 0.75 for every 25 basis points rise in interest rates, it would cool the economy back down a lot quicker, with less pain to mortgage holders, as rates wouldn't be higher for prolonged periods, and the rate hikes wouldn't need to be as harsh.
Definitely agree with GST rise. Pay for what you use!!!
these guys have truly benifited from dirty fiat , and money creation !!
Gst us bullshit. Small business became the tax collector, hate it
Mark's idea of raising GST wouldn't work as well as he thinks because It's not discouraging debt & not encouraging savings. Which is exactly what higher interest rates do.
People will borrow more to pay the higher prices.
On top of that, a floating GST isn't as easy as it appears. Now it is no longer the years when GST was only a matter of a cashier writing on a piece of paper. In the recent years most companies have moved their transactions to computer systems. Because Australia's GST has been stable for so long, almost all IT systems were hard-coded with 10% of GST. A nationwide upgrade in IT systems will be necessary, and it will probably require some government IT infrastructure that feeds real time GST information to small businesses. We may also face a few months with confused people and random IT system breakdowns.
The burden on business is massive with a floating gst. More red tape waste. Not to mention unintended consequences. If I know gst going up in Jan I’ll spend now boosting demand when they want to slow it. Stupid idea.
If you want raise the gst permanently and give back to to those that need it via social security and tax cuts.
@jack12343so what, rewarding people hocking their primary residence to buy into a SMSF LRBF is better? Just to get a capital gain into super?
@jack12343 ‘punish’. Your not a very nice person.
I wonder how long it will take for a massive wage push, due to insane housing prices?
Not possible wages would need to be doubled for house to be around 5.5 times household income.
Mark you look much nicer in a white shirt 😊
You need to add crypto to your chart
More taxes are never the answer….
Mark Bouris- I am right behind you that we should increase GST as a fiscal policy measure to help address inflation and current inequalities in the monetary policy impact. As a fellow Greek I have been following you for a long time and think you are a legend always using common sense (unlike some of the walking septic tanks around!) Cheers. Bill
China's stimulus appears to have taken more effect on Australia's mining sector than its own economy. China is trying to save its deflating economy by starting a trillion CNY (A$200B) of infrastructure projects and many trillions of loans to help heavily indebted construction companies and local governments.
There are alot of people with tens of million dollars each in Sydney. A guy bought a 4 bedroom run down penthouse for his kids for 7 million in Bondi. The migrants that bought there in the 50s have cleaned up especially those that kept buying.
Mark, The RBA speaks in an aggregates, they are not good at communicating this and also, speaking in aggregates is harsh, in that individuals do not matter. Their comments on unemployment figure show this, the believe that more people should be unemployed, behind each job loss is a family and a story, the RBA sees only numbers.
Take this 1 step further. There are now 2 RBA boards. Give one the interest rate and the other the GST rate, so it's not a political issue. The board can set the GST rate between that 10-15% range once with a bit of notice for the new quarter.
Many essential items are GST exemption so it won't reduce spending on those.
This would be a much better method into the new era.
Next weeks data will be interesting. Will we enter a third quarter of per capita recession? four quarters is a depression!
About a year too late on this issue boys. Glad it’s finally getting some coverage though.
Raising GST is the fairest way to spread the pain,
but it’s political suicide.
Gov is happy that RBA gets the blame, GST will focus blame on themselves.
Variable GST is impossible to work more than once every financial year.
Yes this is true unfortunately.
I love the idea that we can control how the inflation affects us by what we consume. Instead of evil variable mortgage rates.
What be a restaurant open in the country with a 15% gst
Mandatory viewing, thx gents 😊
GDP going backwards because … here’s a shock houses don’t produce anything . Businesses do and I guess there’s not enough mine owners per person to beef up the gdp numbers . Instead of pumping ridiculous amounts of capital into assets that just sit there maybe it should be put into creating businesses that do !
This is Australia. We don't do innovation.
Another good thing about a temporary rise in GST is that the government is able to re-distribute tax revenue to those who have been hardest hit with a rise in GST; to extremely low income households through transfers.
Yeah but if rent is included in GST, that's potentially another extra 15% increase on rents onto whatever the Landlord is doing in your City....So nearly 30% rent increases to come?
Love this channel!
Stop complaining learn about economic cycles , when you saw inflation start rising in the Us back in March 2021 you should have started packing cash away back then not re-upping another mortgage or more property purchases . Higher rates were on the cards . So ! You’re either paying 6% or earning it right now ! Depending on your moves 2 1/2 years ago !
How old are you?
@danieldunstan great question. Cos to the people who say stop complaining. When inflation wasn't a problem and rates were low, you didnt make it easier for first home buyers to enter the property market. Just before Feb 2022, liquidity and property prices in certain areas where in another sweet spot where especially units allowed the younger generation to enter. Investors were offloading instead of buying and we didnt have to compete with bloody foreign investors. If we didnt buy in 2021-2022, we'd be waiting another 5-10yrs. I speak to some young people who are resigned even from asset building. Their money just is eaten up in rent. No wealth strategies in building a property portfolio
Yeah should have been socking cash away and living with your nan
Another RBA head that is so far out of touch it’s scary.
Perhaps, although having a 6 million dollar property portfolio herself, understands the damage house prices are doing.
Maybe she realizes that it's smashing productivity (it is Hoovering up all the capital in order to push up existing house prices).
I'm enjoying the chess g a me being played. Flushing out the speculators is overdue. There are shifts happening which should become obvious in 2024/25. Risk appetite?
House prices are out of control and need to drop 50-60% for it to be affordable. Cash rate is at the lower bound of historical norms! It’s not an interest rate problem it’s a debt problem!!! Maybe if we did it have insane mortgages and rent there would be more entrepreneurial enterprise causing the economy diversify! The property bubble is like a python strangling the economy and the quality of peoples lives