"Big Global Economic Implications..." Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 มิ.ย. 2023
- Mark Bouris and economist Stephen Koukoulas return for a full discussion before the Reserve Bank meets again on Tuesday July 4th where they'll once again decide the fate of the economy on whether to keep Australia's cash rate target at 4.10% or increase it yet again.
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The RBA knows that defaults on loans are very low so raising rates a couple more times is a given to reduce this high inflation and the overheating property and rental market. And don't believe inflation is 5.6% as that's rubbish. As anyone on the street knows it's well above 10%.
well said - couldn't agree more
The elephant in the room is that Ridiculously high real estate prices is THE BIGGEST hinderance to productivity . Higher rates are targeting this. Either through direct rental prices/ financing of business premises, or indirectly , via prices paid by employees in the form of rent or financing. This puts enormous pressure on prices through larger wage requirement just to survive
Money printing if I remember correctly… drops productivity… you can’t talk about inflation and then in the second breath say productivity should keep up! If productivity kept up you wouldn’t have inflation! Non argument these mainstream peddlers make.
Those who say real estate prices are too high are those that likely don't own real estate.
During the next 10 years, house median prices in all capital cities will double. This is usually the norm in Australia apart from a few aberrations including Perth from 2014 to 2020 ( 6 to 7 year period) where the median price dropped. The indicators for my prediction are the migration intake staying at elevated levels, a lack of housing supply to satisfy demand, low house approval starts and low stock coming onto the market as people remain cautious for a variety of reasons. Now is the time to buy because prices will keep rising over time. Let's see if I'm right.
@@raccuia1 You need to take a global perspective as well as a wholistic approach to the australian population. Its a fact that australia is pricing itself out of global markets. Unless its minerals
@@pweb4941 your reply to me is filled with errors and ambiguity. As an aside, whenever I see a comment with the words "It's a fact" and no evidence is produced to support that factual statement, I suspect I'm dealing with a nutter who lives in it's little world. And learn how to spell dummy. It's "holistic" not "wholistic".
The problem is we at asset rich but money poor and we all expect big pay packets to pay for our big mortgages it’s going to crash big time and it needs to
You mean 66%. The renters are renting mortgaged properties.
It may need to but property prices aren't going to crash anytime soon... boom times ahead due to short supply, high demand unfortunately... already been rising again since Jan.
@@sidaraengelhardt2529 just cannot correlate the boom term with rates at 7%+
productivity is low because we have lost most of our productive industries. we've gone from making cars to making coffee.
The central bank must make an effort to reset asset prices if they want productivity. What’s happening is there is no opportunity for the younger (more productive), to take the reins. My pensioner mother should not be getting rich from money printing… she doesn’t “do” anything in the economy!
Bring back the gold standard to control insideous currency creation.
The RBA has generally worked to keep housing prices high.
Yep nobody was whingeing and moaning about that!
These tv personalities and highly paid experts are unhappy about rate hikes because they have huge loans on their massive property portfolios.
@@sebasr1Bouris is a mortgage broker. He has a vested interest in selling loans, and he is threatened that "high" interest rates will make him less rich. He tries to hide behind a disingenuous concern that people might lose their jobs if rates increase.
We can smell your desperation Bouris 😂
I love listening to you guys , but I think your both so out of touch with property prices , we as a nation have been kicking the can down the road for over 25 years and this is where it has got us. Interest rates should never have gone so low , that way our borrowing power wouldn't have been as high and this would have allowed property to rise at a more balanced rate with inflation.
Correct
We are in a "deflation" from today electricity goes up 50%+ any business using electricity will go broke in 6 - 12 months plus we are now paying staff 12% super WTF hello !!!
What??
My monthly fix....thank you gentlemen for your valued insight & knowledge.
Excellent overview Mark & Stephen, I'm staying with a steady & hold policy until 3/24.
Yes, very touch and go for this Tuesday!
I will have decisions to make, if they raise again.
At what point then would house prices come down. If average salaries now cannot pay for say 500k loans factoring in rising costs of daily services. When are we going to see prices fall.... cause they have to. Even out west now you're paying 1.5 mill for 300sqm place but at some point even with migrants.. supply and demand .. all that.. people aren't getting paid more and they simply can't afford an average house.
@@cvarikos Indeed, I don't know how current prices can be sustained, even if the RBA rate was 3% or so.
I don't know where the people are getting their money!
@@cvarikos they wont fall when the government is importing 600k+ migrants by 2025 or whatever number it is now
@@williamcrossan9333 they are bringing in people with money
There is no way productivity is going up, all the new Australians are not known for being productive. They'll work 12 hours a day but they aren't productive.
@9:10 - I agree with your use of 'the same productive', as real wages are falling behind inflation, then we are more productive per hour work as you are remunerated less per hour worked in real wages terms.
It has to jump or our $ will slide increasing inflation on all imports
So so true. Thank god the global economy and more sensible central banks offshore are keeping these muppets in check.
All major markets around the world are at above 5% interest rates. Australia staying low by themselves will mean all the money flows out of australia to other markets which comes with a fall in the aus dollar. Hence inflationary...something needs to break
Why are you ignoring exchange rates. USD/AUD and AUD against trading partners is the primary driver of inflation. The RBA should just admit they must follow other central banks to avoid crushing AUD. A $2t economy does not have money sovereignty, the RBA only gets to pretend they constrol interest rates in Australia.
They should raise by .5
How about the gov stop introducing legislation to protect non performing employees. Rates were low for too long, time to take the medicine and stop whining about it.
Productivity is down because everyone is working from home doing f all during the day and having zoom meetings about meetings. Also the RBA MUST keep the AUD stable otherwise if they kept the cash rate at 3.6% like most economists kept suggesting the dollar would of crashed in the 50c range which would be worse than 10% inflation- this is basic economics unfortunately in Australia our economists look at data all day and there in a state of analysis paralysis lol 😂
24:00 House prices and immigration. Indeed, Philip Lowe has lamented a number of times over the years, that government policy could be changed. Be it taxation, immigration, land release, the regulatory environment, NIMBYISM, you name it.
Agreed, the current and projected levels of immigration will increase demand for housing and everything else, stagnate wages and may eventually drive up unemployment through additional competition for jobs. BUT the governments of both sides seem to be addicted to this lazy way of increasing revenue.
Agreed, the current and projected levels of immigration will increase demand for housing and everything else, stagnate wages and may eventually drive up unemployment through additional competition for jobs. BUT the governments of both sides seem to be addicted to this lazy way of increasing revenue.
Does anyone else notice that small businesses are closing down shop fronts and going online so not joining the bankruptcy list but going to the cheapest cost they can to survive? And I've noticed they are reducing opening hours or closing entire days or moving to take away only to cut costs for coffee shops for example. This is very real, its happening now, does any statistics track this??? And I think rates will go up tomorrow and until September not because I want them to at all but because I think Phillip Lowe is going to say I'm already not liked might as well be me to break the economy and maybe inflation then the next person can save it so to speak. This is just my mid evening musings but I'm pretty certain I'm right.
The utilities like electricity are going up per quarter.. where does it end. Regarding work vs output .. i dont get that its not 'enough'. If you asked anyone on the street, they would tell you about the high percentage of redundancies in their company and how they're continually asked to produce more. Infact thats the lifeblood of many long lasting companies. The experienced employees who have become efficient out of necessity. Personally I see a major collision in the not too distant future. Blood bath for most mortgage holders. As most loans were under the proviso of minimal interest.
It seems productivity is being measured very loosely with not a lot explained methodology behind it.
This is very worrying if this use a key metric, I’m with mark on this.
From my experience with the rise in the cost of insurance, electricity and council rates, I've suffered from stagflation since the RBA has raised rates. Once they cut rates, I can expect hyperinflation where the cost of everything goes up and wages will be forced to keep up with double digit inflation rates.
All by design, listen to what the WEF is saying..."You will own nothing and be happy"
Your wrong saying we don't need bank branches. Lack of competition will lead to corporate profit stealing more productivity. Your misunderstanding of this is concerning
Nah, it’s not wrong. No one goes to the bank anymore.
Should cover the BRICS currency
Where do these people ( Reserve or governor ) get the information on the business community that shows there is a productivity problem ? I thought local business groups. Seems like someone doesn’t have their finger on the pulse.
Has anyone seek the signs of 1/5 price / 25% off everywhere?
Petrol $1.60 was $2.20 a year ago
maybe if corps realised that workers have lives and add stuff liek day care into their empty offices, productivity goes up.... its up to businesses to incentivize more productivity.
Too many regulations and too many taxes. How can businesses survive?
How can we increase productivity when we hardly “produce” anything these days anyway…most of our “productive” industries are long gone. Increasing house prices does not increase productivity. We have a huge misallocation of our human and capital resources into unproductive areas…
So here’s one
Major restaurant chain. 2 SYDNEY regional managers. Sack. 1. Same restaurants and output just one manager running around like crazy
And he'll end up leaving due to unworkable conditions and then the company will blame things on a staff shortages
How does this bloke call himself an economist? The connection between exceedingly low unemployment and low productivity is well established. It's part of the reason why busts are necessary after booms.
when unemployment is low, businesses may have a harder time finding qualified workers to fill job vacancies. This can lead to skill gaps and mismatches between the available workforce and the demands of the job market, potentially impacting productivity.
However, it's important to note that the relationship between unemployment and productivity is not fixed. There are many other factors that can influence productivity levels, such as technological advancements, investment in capital equipment, education and training, and overall economic conditions.
It's also worth mentioning that some countries or industries may experience high productivity despite low unemployment, indicating that other factors are outweighing the potential negative effects.
Overall, while there can be a connection between exceedingly low unemployment and low productivity, it is not a guaranteed or universal relationship, and other factors play a significant role in determining productivity levels.
BANKS WOULD NOT LOAN THE MONEY TO BUY THE MINING EQUIPMENT BECAUSE THEY ARE BUILDING SOCIETIES
I'm looking forward to watching where they park their cash next If not rental properties:-🤔
1. Buy a McDonald's
2. Park it in the younger wife's super
3. Buy a bolt hole overseas
4. Buy treasuries
5. Buy shares via bots
6. Childcare centre
7. Give it to kids
So they want unemployment to go up and then people who can’t find work will be given a stigma as dole bludgers etc.
No they don't want people to lose their jobs, RBA never said that. These 2 fools are lying
Australia kind of needs a crash. We need to be humbled.
cant touch housing prices!!! it should go up always. period.
Clearly you don't have kids you flog
yes they were all drunk on QE and easy credit , now the hangover begins !!
Global growth will potentially get worse. The human population is growing, and rapidly chewing through the worlds resources.
I don’t know how theses things work
But they are trying to take the information back down to information
That was good for the 70’s and 80’s
Know has taking into account that there is more people living in Australia compared to them
So information should be around 4% really plus on knowledge about the cost off food and everything
going up this is we’re the problem lay people are spending less but we are getting blamed all the time
so why don’t these rich people start cutting back on their income, it’s always the hard working people paying for them.
Plus they keep saying we are at 4.% want ever mate that is want the banks are paying my rate is 6.01 and other are the same so want these people are saying is rubbish they aren’t reporting the right information
Omg this is the dumbest comment i have read on youtube. Where do I even start? 😂 Please stop
Way overdue for a recession... how is the next generation meant to afford a house? Negative gearing needs to be removed. Inflation way above than what they're stating now .. they need to raise the rates sooner or we will be hurting
3.6 Ratehike, unfortunately
However, the risk is that when the official figures show 4.5% unemployment, the real unemployment on the street likely > 5%. Thats the risk with using lagged data.
These conversations between Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas about the Australian economy, are probably the most well thought out, intelligent and insightful out there.
lol
Agreed, its always useful to hear other peoples' points of view on what is, a complex subject.
Lol they are terrible biased whinging opinions of 2 hack businessmen who are scared they might lose some business
There are predictions that Russia will start full scale war in Ukraine after their counteroffensive. West will have to switch to war economy to counterbalance this and probably sent troops in to Ukraine.
Briks is planning to introduce their own currency based on gold this year as well.
Just dribble.
This bloke doesn’t get one right!
I agree, every month he goes through his damn board and gets it wrong 😂
@@lionheart1727He needs to go back to the drawing board 😉
@@lionheart1727 he puts either what he wants to see or what he's seen in the past...
Woolies and coles should be ashamed
Oh, oh, oh.... Woe is me..... Bought my first home when interest rates were 17.5% in mid 80’s. Now that was hard, at the time. That PARASITE, the stock market causes all these troubles, EVERYTIME. Those slimy Moneymen live in another dreamland; we cop the nightmare.
17% for how long? And on what amount? 😂
And employees will blame the employers for being greedy money grabbers
Can anyone tells me, most business today are better profitability than before high inflation? If not, blaming employers is totally wrong. Pay attention to what Federal government do prior to high inflation, then it is not difficult to work out who to blame of today's situation.
@@kevinkwok7626 productivity measures output of the labour input. I don’t blame most workers production being lower I think most of us are exhausted from the last 3 years of stress. Both business owner and employee. Some business is more profitable because peoples habits have changed during the pandemic. I know many business owners that have taken a pay decrease it’s all part of self employment.
The system is lamentably defective as attested by BAHAULLAH
Lowe needs to go, the incompetent fool is going to push families too far.
This is a global agenda. Lowe is the scapegoat and a puppet in this endgame for CBDC
Needs to go higher. Hopefully he goes 2 big ones on his way out the door. We need positive real rates to get inflation under control
If he brings that god-damned white board again I'm walking in there 😠😡😤😂. My guess work has been more accurate than that stupid board.😂
1 in 100 year pandemic 😂, try next year there already planning it 😂😂😂😂