Can whales unwind without sinking the ship?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 เม.ย. 2024
- I've had a lot of questions over the years about exit strategies and if a whale can exit the market, or if such an exit would crash the entire market. I'll share a few thoughts on the topic while we look at cool cards.
#MagicTheGathering #LimitedEditionAlpha #whales
I'm Mike, the Alpha Hoarder, and I'm sharing/documenting my wild collection here on YT. Join me while I ramble about old cards and MTG finance, and look at cool stuff.
hello@alphahoarder.com
Mike the AlphaHoarder @ 375 Carlls Path #73, Deer Park NY 11729 - บันเทิง
Before starting this video, I jsut want you to know that I am psyched to hear what you have to say. I enjoy hearing your perspective and thought process on these topics. Keep it up.
Thank you for your generous words 🤜🤛 means a lot
Lunchtime ✅
Phone propped up sideways✅
Alpha hoarder video pulled up ✅
Locked in ✅
Let’s Eat 😈
😂 awesome
Man there are some hot cards in there but the artist proof of Wheel is something else. Thanks for sharing the gorgeous acquisition!
Thanks as always for watching!
Love the playtest cards and artist proofs.
The artwork on that Wheel is beautiful!
It's great to see you getting into the stuff that's more rare than Alpha. 😊
I'm sticking my head into a very deep rabbit hole, I'm discovering 😅🤣
That wheel is amazing!!!!
It's really something!
Love the wheel AP
Yeah it's something 🤩🤯
You can also barter for things such as land, boats, cars , homes etc...
True!
If a whale were to exit slowly as discussed, over several years, would it be smarter to start with lower condition cards or NMs and slabs? Or does it not really matter? Thinking both from a gains perspective and market health.
And if condition ordering doesn't matter, does any ordering matter? More niche cards first? Misprints? Artist proofs? I guess oart of my musing is a guess on what will be wanted more now or later, for example, playing vs collection cards.
Good question. I'm not sure there's an optimal strategy because you don't know what the market conditions are going to be over the course of your unwinding. During a hype cycle, liquidity goes up even for things like artist proofs, misprints, and NM cards get a higher premium multiplier. But you won't know in advance if you're going to intersect with a hype cycle, so it would be hard to know ahead of time if you should hold some of that stuff back or get it to market soonest since it's the most illiquid. Your last question is a good one too… It requires speculating on the health of the hobby versus the game ahead of time. That's hard to do!
Great topic -- one I've been wrestling with, shall we say. As you said, it will take years to do it right, which makes the prospect daunting. M30 showed us what could go wrong -- flooded market, depressed prices, and all.
Yeah, agreed. Thanks for watching 🤜🤛
Always happy to see a new video from AlphaHoarder!
🤜🤛
Another factor here is WOTC itself. I believe they missed a massive opportunity to create interest in older cards with MTG30. If they had printed what were clearly non tournament cards (keep the same back and make them gold) in a booster box for the alpha or beta experience, I think interest would have grown in older cards. There has to be a connection with them or we will just be old people sharing cards between each other.
Agreed 💯
Does there have to be a connection? New generations still go after sports cards of players from before their time. It's not a perfect comparison but it's interesting.
@@monkey39128 I think it is a little different because the world of sports in general is so much bigger. The pool of people who will eventually collect can be drawn from is larger. MTG is just a much smaller market. And the world of people who will want older cards is coming from a much smaller pool.
Really happy I found this channel! Loved this video!
I'm glad you enjoyed it! Thanks for watching 👍
Omg that tutor
Right!? 🤯
Makes me wonder about the other side of it. What would happen if Rudys warehouse burned down/got flooded and he took 100% losses? Would RL/4H just explode?
No but Rudy's brain would.
That's a good question. I think mainly what's priced in is supply and liquidity, so cards that are locked off the market -- like his stuff -- are probably not impacting the price very much. These cards aren't stocks, and a lot of the people participating in the market are not investors, so that's why I think the market ignores some of these factors more than you might expect. It would probably have an impact on, say, the high end Alpha PSA 10s.
Sic stuff bro, that Tutor proof though wow
💯
Those artist proofs are amazing!
Mark Tedin has one of the coolest art styles I've ever seen. Love basically anything he's done.
Agreed!
I have a collection of every unique Sol Ring and his Sol Ring art (the ring of fire above the sun) is my favorite one. I’m not a fan of the retro frame and prefer modern frames, so I actually really like the treatment his Sol Ring art got in the 30th Anniversary Edition. The silver lining of that tragedy of a product lol
That Tutor proof is amazing! I have one of the original Ornithopters with sketch by Amy Weber. Definitely want to get more when I have spare cash again.
Ohh nice I love Amy's stuff. Especially on the antiquities cards 😍
Also, that WoF is AMAZING 🥳congratulations on an incredible addition to your collection!
Thank you!! 😁
I believe the Mtg card back was designed by Jesper, with help from Chris, which explains why he signed it on the back.
Ahh yeah that's gotta be it! Thanks 🙏
Hello, I’ve been wanting to comment on your concerns about the generational hand-off and new collectors entering the hobby. I for one was interested when the Magic hint the shelves back in 1994. I played and collected and loved the game. But, I had small children and had not pause, for years while my income provided for them. Fast-forward to 2015, my blast child graduated college and i happened upon a game store while I was out of town and i was instantly back into the hobby. Since then, I’ve collected new cards as well as filling old sets of Magic cards I’m started all those years ago. I im nearly 60 now and play regularly and will never sell my growing collection. That is something my kids can decide for I will give them to them at some point. I love your streams, keep up them coming if you can, I sure do enjoy them. Thank you
That's a cool journey. It's fascinating how many people leave and come back like that. Appreciate the feedback!
My god that Wheel of Fortune is really really incredible, love it !
Yeah that one is special 🤩
One of my largest considerations in building the positions I have is someone like Rudy. Him dumping (or his family) has a very different effect from me dumping. The sheer volume of each rare card he holds (hundreds in some cases) would cause the bottom to fall out. Whether he admits it or not, a large part of scarcity is a result of the vast hoards he (and others like him) keep. Your 30 lightning bolts would def wreck things. Imagine 200. It is insane. I am not sure anyone in the older cards should be there if they are planning to keep a large amount of cards and subsequently hope to sell it all in any reasonable time. You are better off putting money into the truly heavy hitter cards. Mox, Lotus, other P9. (only alpha) if the goal is to cash out in any near period. You can sell one of each of those over a six month period and likely get your money out.
I honestly believe even an audit of his position being made public could cause a price dip. I don't think people realize how big of a position he, and others like him, hold.
It’s like that with everything bro. Gold. Real estate. Cars. It’s all the relevant
I would love to see an audit of his collection… I've tracked a few comments he's made in his videos over the years, and if you extrapolate, it's really mind-boggling. Back in 2019 he claimed to be adding 40 duals per month, and that's already 15 years into his collecting journey and it's been half a decade since then. My sense is people overestimate the demand for some of these cards, and underestimate the size of some hoards. I always say when people ask that I barely consider myself a whale, just because I know how large some other collections are and mine really doesn't compare. I supposeit's all relative, but exponential distributions cause funny and unintuitive things like that.
@@AlphaHoarder He had a video a few years ago where he said you can never have enough PSA10 Dual lands. There were stacks of slabs. I estimated a few hundred that were visible. That is PSA10's. I don't know hat his plan is (am sure he has one), but I can't see selling it all as being that plan. Even over time it would not make sense. I also have to hope there is a succession plan in his will. I have one in mine even, and I am not even in his game much less his ball park.
@@NOLA-vv3szHe has over 80 Black Lotus (Alpha) which was revealed in a patreon call a long time ago, obviously a lot more now. Nothing is safe from him dumping in my groups opinion. We all hoard alpha as well but his hoarding is in the 100s per copy including certain P9s. Back then he regularly took patreon calls for $$$$$$$.
Rudy has his hand in a lot of different magic markets. He has at least one P3K set in psa 10, at least 100 full AN sets (plus hundreds of the rest of the key U1/U2s), probably close to 200 sets of AQ, has a lot of Legends, but he's never mentioned if he built sets or not, and his heaviest bags, all his A/B/U in various grades from beat to hell to pristine 9.5s. Last time he did any Dark stuff, I think he mentioned 70 sets? (Probably more now), plus quadruple all that for his silver age stuff. That's what I've gleaned watching Rudy since the beginning. (Open Boosters is closer to a little Rudy, but he has a ton as well).
Mike what do you do for a living? Your collection is awesome.
Thanks! It's been quite the passion project for a long while now. I'm an entrepreneur, I started a software business and a real estate business, and after a long while of hitting my head against the wall, I eventually got some traction and some fortunate breaks 🙂
I have had this conversation with other long time collectors and to prevent losses for yourself (and not wreck the market), I think it would take several years (I believe a five year window) to unwind from a large collection/position. The alternative is to find someone with the resources that wants to take all or a large portion of what you are parting with.
No
I think for sure it's a multi year window, and it depends on the ongoing health of the hobby during that time of course. I think in the past whales eating whales has been a significant part of how this has been done… It's just so daunting doing it otherwise. But that depends on there being a newer, younger whale that's interested.
Demonic tutor 😍 Awesome
It's stunning 🤩
I ❤ playtest! I need 1 of any still!
Did you see the Heritage auction yesterday? A fully graded Alpha set. Was neat to see a lot of cards that don’t always come to market.
I was going to try and get the Stasis but I missed it while brushing my teeth 🤷♂️
I’m always buying and selling. Keeps my collection pretty manageable and quality improved over time as I upgrade and move into higher value cards.
Braingeyser is one of my all time favorites. VERY nice pick up 🤩 🧠
I saw that-- the Lotus went for like 105 before BP. Many prices seemed so low 😅 Crusade 1600, Braingeyser 1400... I suppose that's before BP, but still. Although 9.5s did really well.
@@AlphaHoarderyes, it seemed like there was a lot of money spent but strategically on a small proportion of the cards. That 9.5 Force of Nature 😮💨
Yeah that was like 10k wasn't it??
I'm definitely gonna go look at the auction results
wow that tutor is insane
It is 🤩
One of my all‐time favorite videos of yours now. I can't count how many I've watched but definitely well over 75% glad hit on some good points. Anyone can get hit by a car, etc. Yes he can't die with it. He's smart. He has a living will. Now that person will need lots of help indeed. People like Rudy sorta already have a plan. I too sorta do already. Wonder what the 40th anniversary of magic will be?
Thanks for this comment 👍 i'm sure he's planned this out and I suspect his estate is robust enough that nobody will be in a hurry to dump the assets
Those AP's are Nasty!!! 💪
Right??!
I'd see market is healthy if you can unload stuff just putting them into auctions and also the prices will be more less good but stay decent. That would be pretty easy to test if that unloading option is interesting to someone. I think a lot buying in hype was done because these items weren't believed to be out there so vastly like you are showing. There seems to be lot of this stuff while we are speaking about high end cards.
Yeah I think that's part of it, too.
I agree with your conclusion that it is posible for people with large positions to exit without collapsing the market, you clearly describe the strategy such people should/cold use .. I am not sure it is very likely for most as few people have the forethought and patience for a 5 to 15 year plan. Most will be sold relatively quickly when need arises . Of course there is one other outcome for some of these collections you did not mention. It will not happento many but some will disapear thrown out by heirs unaware of their value
True -- attrition is definitely real. I know of one large collection that was lost to a flood.
Those artist proofs stole the show
That are something 🤩
Totally agree! 🧠 🧠
I just got an Beckett 8.5 Alpha Illusionary Mask for just over $500. A few years ago, an alpha reserved list rare would be what...3x that? At least? My mind was blown, and a little terrified. This is either the best buying opportunity in half a decade or...we're screwed : )
I've been buying up Betas, Relax and get what you can find. I think a lot of people are still fireselling their cards, and it's a great time to buy.
Wouldn't worry too much. The vintage cards are struggling in Pokémon as well and they've definitely got a lot of young buyers coming in. Magic has probably been hit the worst because of M30 but vintage is sluggish across the board.
I have to say, some of these prices are just amazing. An 8.5 Illusionary Mask was an easy 1700 a couple years ago! There's been a couple cards that I know I don't need, but I just can't resist at the price 😅
Regarding Pokémon, that's a really good point. If I knew more about that hobby, it would be interesting to figure out the extent to which they're in cycle in order to tease out what M30/sentiment is specifically having on the magic market, distinct from overall macroeconomics.
We can argue also that cards were overpriced at that time and should have sold to hype which is essential truth almost every time in collectibles if you want to maximize profit. These aren't cyclical marketa.
@@monkey39128 I think It's percentually more possible that we haven't seen all time highs in Pokemon than in MTG. It's possible both hobbies have seen all time highs too or none but right now it looks worse for mtg. Even if we have seen peak in MTG that doesn't mean it's dying right now, maybe after several decades but that's a long time.
If one person can do a "buyout" to spike the price, then one person can dump a position to crash the market.
Yeah, really good parallel to draw there
Greetings from Spain!!
Greetings! 🫡
I was literally thinking about this. Short answer is yes. Someone like yourself will have to be extremely smart unloading. Put it all on the market at once and kill the value of half your collection
💯
good point, doom!
If fortune favors me, I'll never have to cross this bridge 😅
@@AlphaHoarderlet’s hope not!
Not sure if I'd sell my 7th foils ever! Taking them to the grave! 😂 no really. It's a beautiful set ❤️🔥
I’ve been slowly liquidating my collection over the past couple of months I’m going to keep my top end stuff prob about 10% of my collection and sell the rest. Prob about 50k worth of sealed product and loose cards. I’m
Not selling because of lack of faith on the investment side of things. I’m selling because I no longer have interest or passion regarding the franchise. For me I’d rather have the cards be used/ appreciated than sitting in my safe.
Good reason to exit, and good strategy too 👍 I've picked up lots of collections from people in similar places. Between one thing and another, the passion isn't what it was, and they prefer the cards go where they'll be appreciated.
Nice Wheel and Tutor. I would like to get a global set of Wall of Wood sometime, but I just keep holding out that Summer will drop at some point. I wouldnt even know who to contact about an artists proof of such a thing
Most of the specialty stuff trades in Facebook groups, or at least, you can network from there.
shipping cards with Fedex is such a boomer move
Droolin over that Lord
Love that one too 🤩
Those CGC playtest cards will crease in time, inside those cases because of the thin plastic layers 😢
Oh man, you mean in the slabs?
@@AlphaHoarder Yeah, I see the plastic creases, it will stop them from moving around but it will crease the cards in years to come.
Hmm a break out might be in order 🤔 Appreciate that heads up
they make the best art with sorcery brooo! and the fact that a whale could crash the market for many years is very dangerous i find
I've checked out Sorcery, the art is really good
Wouldnt the best be to list there and buy anything lower?
Possibly. Only if there is organic demand to match the new asks. It's also possible for a large gap to remain between bid and ask.
Seems like the only magic card that hasn't gone down was the one I wanted: Alpha TT. Glad I didn't get it yet though. Buying BTC has been very lucrative instead.
Yeah! Good time to be playing the btc roulette wheel 😁 You're right about TT... power held well, I saw TW soften only a little, and MP moxes softened too, but not like other alpha rares.
❤❤❤
Something to consider is not even having 6 months at times to make sales. In the last couple weeks, very large collector, larger than most ... announced on his facebook that he has terminal cancer and will pass in months, unexpectedly. Something to consider, he is in quite a difficult position of course.
That's terrible news, sad thing to hear. But I absolutely agree. Large positions are extremely difficult to exit, and sometimes life doesn't give you very much notice.
Based on your estimated 5-8 year unwind-without-crash timeline, and assuming you accumulated the bulk of your collection in half that time (IIRC it was 2020-2023), do you think that your accumulation phase caused a significant market spike up?
Interesting thought. My particular accumulation started in 2017, and yes I'm sure I played some small part of the prices during the run up. I mean, technically, every auction I won was me setting a market price. But then again I lost more than I won, and most of my acquisition was through private sellers / dealers, so I doubt I was a significant factor in the overall market. It's hard to know, though
F2F games currently has THREE ul lotuse and has had an alpha lotus in stock for a year, people are unloading I guess?
Inventory has been high for a while, and the economy is minimizing the reabsorption, so I'm not surprised to hear the stuff is sitting there
The alpha lotus at F2F is inked. I looked at it a few times, thoughts on inked alpha lotus?😮
I'm not an ink guy, but I've seen lots of inked alpha power sell. People will take the discount to get a piece.
Maybe you could do a video on what you see as collecting vs pathological hoarding? I mean, do you derive 3600% more satisfaction from owning 36 Alpha Lightning Bolts vs just owning one? At some point, there must be a distinction between "normal collecting" and then those that take this to an extreme due to some sort of compulsion or mental illness.
That's the most politely packed psychological diagnosis I've received 😆 thanks. Yes, maybe I will. I have thoughts on that. After all, it was with self reflected irony that I named the channel Hoarder. I certainly struggle with that line.
Have you looked at George Triches periods to make money. According to that chart , unloading at a premium wont be viable till 2026, and The market cycle from Good times to hard times continues. Watch that chart like a hawk, and choose when to unwind.
I'm not familiar with that, I'll check it out -- thanks!
Superb help from the boss of Alek Crackinapackus! ❤🎉
So ur hoarding all vesuvans, dang!
But I prefer the wheel of fortune...!
Can't blame you for that lol
@@AlphaHoarder 🤣🤣🤣
I think nerd does too!
I always wonder this about Rudy, not just with Magic but with everything he hoards. Like his Weiss boxes. That's a niche game and he's got thousands, maybe tens of thousands of boxes. How the hell is he planning to unload it all? 😬 I wonder if it's not about money anymore and he just likes hoarding. 😂 My gut says the market could absorb a large Magic position but I don't know how long it would take. The new inventory could be gone within a month or it could take years. I think the most likely scenario is Rudy's family would sell his collection to another high net worth collector.
The thing is though, is he is still selling all that newer stuff. He does not sell anything pre-2000. (aka his heavy bags).
@@chazzanschutz6096 He sells some of it but he's keeping tons of it back for himself. He did a video recently showing his stash of modern boxes.
He's a very complicated case... it would take a very healthy and growing hobby to absorb his positions on anything less than 10 years, I suspect. Even 10 years, he'd have to move one complete Arabian Nights set every 30 days for almost that entire decade, based on his publicly stated position of complete sets. These are shallow markets....
@@AlphaHoarder Yeah it's definitely not going to happen quickly. He did a video a while ago talking about his endgame and the bottom line was he's not planning to sell it all because he loves it. I guess if you've made enough money you can do stupid things like have warehouses full of cardboard. 😂
I suppose the thing he's got that others don't is his patrons. A lot of them are fiercely loyal and will buy basically anything he puts out. That gives him better selling power than most of us.
@@monkey39128 I think he may have more sealed boxes of cards than I have of just cards.
Been thinking about this myself. Rudy will have trouble due to how public he is…
Some individuals (with their unique collections) have painted themselves into a corner…
For sure, it's the trickiest part of mixing an investment with emotion. It's very easy to end up in a position that doesn't make any sense from a financial point of view. Appreciate you watching 🤜🤛
Commander players will always want time twister.
Even you sir! You've obtained some items Mike or Rudy or Tavis doesn't have! 🧠🧠 gonna be interesting in 2026 like what Brody said!
Please do the artwork rant, modern magic art all looks the same, uninspiring trash
Absolute trash that might as well be ai-generated. Can’t imagine what they are paying the artists
Of course they can't, most are too greedy. Most won't exit the market until there's a total collapse and there's pressure to do so.
I've learned never to underestimate how greed and incentives correlate with outcomes, so you have a point. That said, the hard-core collectors who are still in the hobby-- that I know, anyway-- are mostly there for love and passion. I think most of the other sorts have shaken out over the years.
Most, not all.
Yeah, I just don’t see it at all as an investment and never did. Itake always had a ceiling and I have happily sold several times only to rebuy and watch it climb a little and then fall again. I sold right after mtg 30 was announced and now power and LOA is about 60 percent of what it was… I’m buying for Pennie’s on the dollar. This time I really doubt it will rebound. Maybe it will and I’ll sell again. This stuff has a ceiling for sure in my opinion and less young players are willing to pay thousands for a lotus that wizards will just reprint… and they will. There’s no sentimental value in it for them like it is for us… some people will collect yes… but overall it’s not players we’re talking about… it’s a niche market at that point… sorry, but guys like you who collect like 200 COP greens… not normal dudes.
I make no claims to normalcy 😂 You may indeed be right about young people. I've shared some thoughts on that in my last couple videos.
This whole discussion is worthless without actual numbers. Your conclusions are pure guesswork. And quite frankly, a bit suspect. You, yourself, own 35 copies of a card that was printed 16000 times by your own numbers, and somehow think you can crash the market with no survivors.
I believe these are very shallow markets that can't absorb very many copies of these cards. I also believe it's a market sensitive to perceived rarity, meaning dumping a couple cards could depress prices of unrelated cards. 16k is the print run for the commons, but what's important for this discussion isn't the supply side, but the demand side. And yes, I'm only speculating, you'll never catch me claiming I'm right about everything. My philosophy is to have good justifications for your beliefs, but nonetheless assume most of them are wrong.
Try it and watch it .. Dump 1 specific item and study the behavior
I suppose that is the best way to know!