Could Israel's Iron Dome & USA's C-RAM Have Saved Pearl Harbor In 1941? (WarGames 143) | DCS
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 มิ.ย. 2024
- We model the 1941 IJN attack on Pearl Harbor and try to answer if a single large Iron Dome battery and six Centurion C-RAM units could have protected from the attacking Japanese planes.
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Next.... Could Nuclear Weapons have defeated the Greeks at Thermopylae
Nope
A B-52 squadron loaded with Cluster Munitions would work.
@@michaelsublet3283just a Bradly. Singular.
Did you mean Persians?
Regardless I would watch it
Interestingly enough, Pearl Harbor in 1941 *DID* have a radar and it did track the incoming strike by the Japanese. The thing that removed its usefulness was the operators were told the contact was an incoming flight of B-17s (Which did turn up during the raid.)
To this day I really wonder what have happened had the US scrambled everything when they saw a fleet of that size inbound. Certainly would have made a massive defensive difference obviously.
It does beg the question, how long would it have taken to make a fleet of that size, in port at anchor, ready to make sail.
@@thespaceelefant2441 According to the book "Day of Infamy" by Walter Lord, USS Nevada usually took 2 hours to build up enough steam to start moving. Smaller vessels took about an hour.
@@Fizwalker yeah that sounds right. So basically still wouldn't have had time to leave
@@thespaceelefant2441 Pretty much. That said, USS Nevada DID get underway during the attack. According to the same book I mentioned, the ships on battleship row kept a single boiler lit to provide power for the ship. On the Nevada, the officer of the watch, Ensign Taussig if I remember right, decided to light a 2nd boiler to relieve the pressure on the first one. So during the attack, the Nevada had a head start and managed to get up enough steam to move. That said, while she was moving to leave harbor, she was ordered to stay out of the channel leaving Pearl so the fleet wasn't bottled up. That's one of the reasons she ended up beached on Hospital point.
A cruiser, USS St Louis, was the largest ship to leave harbor during the attack. There were a number of destroyers that got out as well. (USS Monaghan was one of the first because she was due to relieve the USS Ward out patrolling the entrance). Getting the entire fleet out wouldn't be possible.
Honestly though, given the results, it was best that the battleships were kept within harbor because it allowed them to be re-floated and returned to service. If they'd been at Lahaina Roads, or out at sea, you would have probably lost all of the ones that were just severely damaged.
Fun little scenario, but the Japanese strike force came in two waves separated by an hour or so, and half of each wave either weren't targeted on ships,or were fighters not carrying bombs.
To be fair most C-RAMs have multiple "units" (guns) per "unit" (group). so each spot you had 1 C-RAM, there should be multiple
Pearl Harbor becomes the perfect example of mass drone warfare and the difficulty in defending against a mass attack.
Yep... thinking Drone Carriers is going to be a thing... drones given only 2 missiles and linked to capital ships/ground systems. Means they don't need their own expensive radars etc and saturate the target space with cheap targets.
The technology is different now. As someone who works in Air Defense for the Middle East, I can tell you we can handle mass drone attacks.
@@LokarAznerandepends on scale. gotta remember drones can be put in the air for a 3 digit price tag. that means there could be litterally thousands of them for a comparable price to a standard missile strike. little to no heat signature, potential for wire guides preventing jamming, low altitude flight paths. a serious mas drone strike IS going to get hits on target reguardless of the defense system
arsenal bird go brrrrr
@@LokarAzneran mass drone attacks that include them launching missiles and then being guided bombs themselves?
In reality the Japanese would have broken off the attack once the first 150 aircraft were obliterated. They would have no idea what the Iroj Dome loadout inventory was, and they would have had to think about keeping enough aircraft alive to defend their own fleet from an obvious counterattack.
No.
Before anywhere close to 150 Japanese aircraft get shot down other Japanese pilots would have identified the position of the Iron Dome launchers and instructed all other aircraft to maintain a holding pattern at a safe distance at sea-skimming level while a bomber/fighter Task Force identifies a terrain masking approach that will allow them to remain hidden from radar (they will not understand it this way but merely discover that the only aircraft that are not getting shot down are those behind cover) until they are literally on top of them to release bombs. After the bombing the Task Force bombers break off back to the Akagi for rearming while Task Force fighters do some “pop ups” from behind the hills to see if any launches are detected for a minute until all clear is given and the air fleet starts approaching the harbour.
Once some planes go down from the C-RAM the previous step would be repeated with the attack air fleet on a holding pattern that is out of C-RAM range and another bomber/ fighter Task Force (possibly the same one as before; this would probably be made an elite squadron by the commander of the aircraft carrier it is assigned to) directed to repeat the previous assault tactic on these defences.
Afterwards the attack commences as usual.
Instead of the attack taking 1h15m we are looking at 1h30m with more or less the same outcome.
@@industrialman8296 sure…”some mysterious wonder weapon we have never seen is vaporizing our aircraft at will and we have no idea how it works…let’s send the whole fleet after it!!!!”
Come on. That is not how anyone in the military thinks. You are thinking like a bloodless sim player. These are real men and the defenders of your homeland. No sane leader risks their entire command like that.
@@industrialman8296 you are thinking like someone living in the era of GPS and secure digital communications with hundreds of channels. These pilots are not surviving long enough, nor do these planes have large radios. Only the squadron leaders are communicating back to the fleet, and their predominant communication would be “we are dying from magical rocket projectiles and ropes of fire in the sky, do not send more planes this way to die, it is a trap.” C-RAM and Iron Dome would appear to be magical and invincible to them.
@@mandoreforger6999
Probably not "magical and invincible", but it would definitely be enough for Japan to break off the attack run - Iron Dome and C-RAM are concentrated around Battleship Row, and the missiles engaging would be more than enough to convince the Japanese that the attack was **not** in fact a surprise - why else would the American's have only now deployed this mysterious new air defense system?
And, of course, the reduction of the number of aircraft getting through would substantially increase the odds of the USN being able to get ships underway - which, depending on the level of Japanese aircraft reserves, could be good or bad. Either way, Japan likely achieves even fewer of its objectives in the attack than it did IOTL.
EDIT: Of course, on the flipside, once they're getting shot down by what would look like rockets, they probably *would* be smart enough to drop altitude if they could do so - avoiding getting shot down by normal AA guns is often a matter of going high or being too low to easily engage, and getting low is faster.
@@ScienceRules118 i think C-RAM would have looked somewhat supernatural to the 1941 fighter pilot. Tracer rounds and that rate of fire is unlike anything they could conceive. At dawn they would have appeared like sentient ropes of fire with their own mind. As for Iron Dome rockets, their speed and ability to turn into their maneuvering would have likewise seemed like an omnipotent force. Japanese pilots and soldiers were not known for improvisation. The other reality is that C-RAM would target falling bombs. Those would be easy targets. Their software prioritizes bombs and artillery shells.
This would have to be considered a Japanese victory because you didn't prevent the attack. However, the loss of 200+ pilots and planes would have severely weakened the Japanese carrier fleet in later battles - of which there were many. So in the long run the Japanese victory -might be a Pyric one.
Also, consider that after being pwned for 200 planes, are they going to continue to throw themselves into the meat grinder? At some point they would have called a retreat. They don't know that the missiles are running low.
@@rodwanolds1871 Not to forget most would assume it could be reloaded... Why make something so important a one time use...
Pyrrhic*
@@LokarAzneran I knew it didn't look right but didn't know why., thanks.
@@gotskilsudont2149 well sure they can be reloaded, the question would be could they be reloaded quickly enough to make a difference in the battle?
Seeing Cap’s plane bounce while invincible gave me an idea, a spin off of the Thunderdome fights. Make all planes invincible and you have to push/ram/bump the other planes out of a set perimeter.
I like this idea
I expect the waves of zeroes to overwhelm the defenses.
C-RAM: Counter Rocket, Artillery (and) Mortar
19:06 And here’s Brandon, demonstrating how to avoid being killed by either/both the C-RAM *and* the Iron Dome systems… by flying into a mountain. “The Navy congratulates your son on his achievement.”
Next: Could a wing of B-52 bombers breach a hill fort in ancient Britain?
The little lump on the side of the CRAM is a GoPro for extreme TH-cam subscriptions.
😅 cap you need to play in the dirt more..toughn up ur immune system.. hope you feel better
Bit late for that, that immune system period ends when puberty really kicks in. It's why school kids are plague pits until they're about 14-15 or so. Hence I'm avoiding them, since kids + immunocompromised from chemo is not a good mixture.
PS get immunised again Measles, because not only can measles kill you, it hard resets your immune system memory. A measles victim is 7x more likely to die in the following decade from disease than someone who hasn't had it.
PPS If you have Fibromyalgia you have an autoimmune cancer causing syndrome. It can trigger cancers and make them more aggressive. I am fighting #6 skin cancer and #3 3G3N breast cancer with a ki of 60 (average ki = 12). If you can, an immediate full body contrast CT.
I'm sure his new Petri dish will make sure that he's exposed to all the endemics. ;D
Get well soon Cap.
He's immunocompromised if I'm not mistaken. Cancer? I think?
As a father of 4, I too have experienced all the joys of the milk fueled, boob motivated, eventually self-propelled, petri dish known as "Baby."
My favorite equipped features are vomit-slinging and sleep depeprivation screaming every 4 hours. Close in third is the diaper filler in the early days known as meconium. Real poop gives me no problems at this point.
You will look back on these days of sickness and exhaustion with a smile on your face. Give it 2yrs. You will beg for the days the ankle biter was mostly immobile.
Remember, your wife is your teammate and this is an endurance match. Keep comm lines open, both of you need to be frank about even the smallest of complaints. Find a day once per week to go somewhere both of you can vent.
Eat your veggies and enjoy the ride.
^^ you are my new hero.
Love your work Cap and team, keep it up.
I have seen the iron dome in action first hand in Ashkelon in 2012 - very effective.
Torpedo attacks were a bigger thing during the actual attack. Also the hit rate of the bombs (and torps if you had them) will be WAY over at that skill setting.
Firstly, you are absolutely brilliant. Secondly, your what-if videos/scenarios are incredible. Lastly, the knowledge and patience you possess creates extremely mesmerizing and most importantly EDUCATIONAL accounts of historical background basics ( a fantastic way to get kids really immersed in our past struggles). All your pilots have great flying skills. Its like watching a history channel!
To answer the question of if the Japanese would have known about Iron Dome... Probably. They wouldn't have known its exact capabilities, but their spies would have likely have had some information on it. And the locations of the launch sites would probably have been known too.
Assuming, of course, this tech was developed naturally and not the result of a time traveler just handing over the units. And that has its own issues like "Why use the underlying tech only for this system, rather than mounting radar, targeting and missiles on fighters".
I mean they attaked Pearl Harbor with none of the carriers there and did not go for the fuel depots but for the ships, witch could be replaced and repaired way faster.
Edit: and they knew about all of that
@@patricktho6546 I didn't say anything about them using that information well, just that they would know.
This was a fun one!! Great flying as always Grim Reapers!! Super Cap, I wish you a speedy recovery!!!
It would be interesting to see this with lockheed martins 300kw laser & raytheon laser weapon system.
It would be interesting to see if the tracking can keep up with the instant-on laser. Computing firing solutions got easier because no more bullet lag, but getting the precise point-in-time location data would be crucial.
@@jeffcerullo6493 Israel's new laser for iron beam is only 100kw that's why Israel was trying to partner up with Raytheon or LM.
Thanks CAP and the boy's for another GREAT video!!!
Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar = C-RAM
what about an AEGIS air defense system vs every plane japan had at the time of the bombing of pearl harbor
I am very upset and took this very seriously.
C-RAM: Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar
C-RAM would have targeted the falling bombs and hit many of them. I took this seriously and I am extremely upset😂😂😂
@@mandoreforger6999 Very true, I'm seething just thinking about it.
That's the one.
@@grimreapers we do not disappoint 😂😂😂. Despite being bitterly disappointed. 🤣🤣🤣
Best video you guys have put out in weeks!
Boy, you all have great imagination when coming up with these scenarios😁
22:18 At this point, with 1/3rd of the Imperial Fleet down, would the Imperial Navy have ordered their planes back, not knowing if these flying telegraph poles destroying their planes were out of ammo or just getting started??? 🤔
Here's hoping for a speedy recovery Cap, all the best from Toronto Ontario Canada!
Six well-targeted missiles have knocked out the 4 carriers, then take out two battleships. Or, just take out the oilers trailing behind.
As someone thats actually lived on Guam this was pretty fun to watch lol
I can always count when you guys put a production together it going to be very well done
It was so enjoyable, thank you for your work!
Great video, guys...👍
Hope you feel better soon. Fun video.
"Oh he's still alive!"
*switches to camera showing him getting hammered*
"I'm so proud of you" 25:15
There’s no Midway with that Japanese loss of airmen. That’s the cream of their air-arm that just got deleted.
The official simba fan club would like to note as much as cap complains about having not setup things in the sim because he is ill, we still get a feature length video to enjoy. Keep Cracking on, m8! TYFYS
This is my first comment ever on this Channel. You guys are simply geniuses think of things that I would never think of contemplating what would happen
Cap, can you do a timely scenario of Russian forces trying to stop a column of Wagner forces approaching Moscow?
😂😂😂😂
@@feliscorax: It's not only possible, but it's happening.
And if you can theoretically model the 40 km-long convoy stuck north of Kyiv, I'm sure you could model Wagner Group moving towards Moscow on Highway M4, from Rostov-on-Don.
You can stop it. You just need to hand over all the positions for the head of government!
Cool concept this one
Valued viewer reporting!
What tipped the server was a significant number of Japanese planes were now completing their bombing run and heading for home rather than being destroyed.
Hey Cap, hope everything is going good with you. Covid sucks, I can't even imagine four times! Feel better!
'pure raw skill' proceeds to get absolutely destroyed
@10:06 that's where they mount the invisible selfie stick, so that you can have the POV camera. ;)
I think it is pretty cool that you are using Apra Harbor on Guam 🇬🇺 in place of Pearl Harbor.
We just had a US congressional hearing on the island last Thursday, about the planned 360-degree missile defense system.
We already have a THAAD battery on Guam. They are looking to add Aegis Ashore and possibly a Patriot battery for layered coverage.
The Japanese casualty rate of killed pilots was much higher here,this would have had a bigger effect in the next battle than in real life.✌️❤️🇬🇧
if something like this happened, they would be out of the war, they've lost most of their experienced pilots
First-time commenter, thus far, short-term viewer. Premise: If the Pacific fleet and surrounding bases had been fully staffed and had the appropriate alert, could they have reasonably fought off the Japanese? They did have warning but the bases ignored it believeing it wasn't possible Japan would attack.
A fun anti ship mission might be to do the American carrier raids on Japanese bases. It was a part of the Island hopping strategy. Rabaul Harbor or Truk Atoll would be fun to recreate with different fighter generations
Damn Cap.....hope you feel better!
Covid AGAIN, Cap? Get better soon. BZ Team, beautiful explosions video!
Grim Reapers waiting for the great CH to make a Sa'ar 4.5 and 5 or even 6
i believe in him and he have the talent to do so!
Great content as usual!
How about loading a few squadrons of Blackbirds with a sidewinders and a MOAB each, but they can only launch from Miramar once the zeros start hitting Pearl? See how much damage they can inflict and how much they protect the harbour??(yes, I know they don’t have hard points, but the joy…!?!?)
@@airgin3000 It's what dreams are made of... ;)
Hear me out, skip the MOAB, slap a MOP under the blackbird, have if go straight to the Yamato to voice it's concerns
@@airgin3000 How far would that yeet?? - Is that BEFORRE or AFTER it hit the engines?? haha.
Ah man, what about a vertical dive at Mach3+ and THEN release!?!? - "How to open a portal to Hell..."
lol blackbird with moab? Ummm. However interesting concept. Blackbirds I believe required more than an hour to prepare for launch, and they would need to get refueling aircraft up, but one did the 3000 miles LA to DC in an hour and 6 minutes I believe. But the MOAB would clearly take out a carrier with a proximity strike. Thinking you would need something more like a B52 or C130 to carry that load.
Did you know that C-ram can shoot down ordinance, right? It very well might have fused only be shot down by a C-ram.
The next simulation would be about the elephant in the room...can Wagner take over Moscow
Topical...
B-52H gunner here.
M61-A1 in the 52 is equivalent to Navy CWIZ, since we stole it from them. 😁😅🤣
In ground tests against Firebee drones, I had been told, a unit had killed a drone with a THREE round burst.
In trainers we were pitted against fighters and missiles and had to destroy both.
With a pitifully small ammo can.
I always exited the trainer bathed in sweat and nerves shattered. Mandatory trip to the Airman's Club for multiple Rum and Cokes to come down from the combat jitters. But my crew did survive on a lot of those make-believe missions.
This was in the late 70s. Also they had tested me on reflexes or reflexive responses.
At 19 I had 4/10 of a second. Medium to high for their purposes.
I still died in those scenarios. But not all of the times.
Those were also back in the days of CRT displays and vacuum tube-based transmitters.
I will now go back to the video from 8:46 and see how well the grandchildren of my old system fared.
Wonderful
The chance that ww2 pilots would know how to dodge missiles is basically zero. The anime zipang did a good job illustrating this when the mirai (the main ship of the anime) engages the USS wasp and it's planes. Most of the wasp's air wing got annihilated before they could even comprehend what was about to happen. Just the sea sparrows and the Phalanx CIWS the ship used were enough to traumatize one of the surviving pilots so badly he could barely hold himself together while describing the ship to his superiors.
You're mistaking the meaning of "PK ratio", it isn't about having 200 missiles kill 200 planes, it's the probability of any missile hitting it's target, and as we saw in the vid, some planes were fired on with multiple missiles and some were hit more than once, and others were being accurately tracked but the plane hit the ground before the missile hit the plane.
The fact it still had an 80% or so kill ratio even with occurrences where some planes were targeted by multiple missiles speaks to a very high PK ratio.
C-RAM: counter rocket, artillery and mortar
This reminds me of the Books from John Birmingham. About a modern nato Fleet arriving in the past just before the battle of Midway. If you are a Reader and like this kind of stuff I highly recommend it.
First Book is Named "weapons of Choice"
The things on the side of the missiles are like proximity sensors and also help the missile stay locked on to the target.
Awesome video, only small issue is that Pearl Harbor happened 7.Dec.41, not 7.June.41. Other than that awesome video again!
"its like the fourth of july up there 😀" first time i laughed so hard my lungs started hurting
Regarding the Iron Dome launchers. When you zoom in on the face of a launcher, it is very obvious that the silver square is unfired, and the gold color slots have been fired. At 26:10 you zoomed in on one that has only a silver square in the upper left, all the rest are gold. It fired right after you zoomed out I think. You zoomed in on one at 26:43 that is empty with all gold. I also thank they fired from bottom to top. Upper left looking face on, should always be the last to fire. The trick is to zoom in on the face of the launcher at full screen, to be able to easily see the difference.
Damn Cap, hope you feel better soon!
I wonder when DCS will get the laser option for iron dome (iron laser I think?)
I want to see you hit all carriers as they are starting to launch with anti ship missiles and see how many planes get up.
for your sickness look up the , i think its called the zalenko prototocol or something like that.
I don’t think the humans can take out any ships, maybe make some damage. But when all the computer players come in to play it will be mayhem. The defenses won’t be enough.
See the best part of this for me is that it wouldn’t have been a surprise. The radar of either system would be able to tell you exactly WHAT is flying in. And you’d be able to see that it’s Japanese Zeroes. So now you have to dodge Iron Dome and CWIS, but the ships would be active, aircraft would be active, ground AA would be active. Even if nothing else, the radar and command centers would prove to tip the edge HEAVILY in the US favor.
C-RAM = Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Morter.
I wonder why the evil robotic cows have been so silent lately? Prepping for a counter offensive???😂😂😂😂
Get well soon Cap.
Any chance you could do a re match of a Chinese destroyer flotilla vs US carrier group but with type 55s?
Hell yes, just accepting the early warning could have made a 55 to 65 % positive difference.
Pearl Harbor a day before the attack had an air raid drill but on the day of everything for defense had been locked up.
22:36 I have heard a 5 inch rocket take off from a few hundred meters. It sounded like an F-16 flyover with full afterburner.
Would now be a bad time to point out the IJN didn't have any spitfires or FW-190s? Silly nitpick jokes aside, that was a riot to watch. Thanks for the vid!
lol fav. tail number ;)
Next video: Could USA’s C-RAM save the USS Liberty from Israeli fighter jets and gun boats
try garlic oil in the ears from capsules . keeps the sinuses clear and helps you breath .
Top marks to the Human pilots for getting within view of let alone hitting the ships. Especially in pedantically modeled aircraft where the controls are in literal German :\
One issue with all videos regarding propeller driven aircraft is that our modern missiles don't work very well against them, the IR signature is too small compared to jet engine driven aircraft and propellers do wonky things with radar(i can't remember the name of the effect atm) , helicopter reflect radar all over hell's half acre. So they likelyhood of radar and IR guided missiles hitting their targets is significantly reduced.
CIWS is a 20mm Gatling Gun. Sea RAM is a Rolling Airframe Missiles System, with 21 Missiles per launcher.
You're thinking of the naval version of SeaRAM (So did I since I'm a navy guy), but C-RAM for the army is CIWS mounted on a truck or a stationary location at like a permanent base. i.e. CIWS = Close In Weapons System, C-RAM Counter, Rocket, Artillery and Mortar.
Nice.
Literally better than the film Pearl Harbor.
i wonder how the german cram system mantis would do in a situation like this
C-RAM = Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar
This is the silliest scenario ever!
For the sake of argument... once these magic demon rockets cut into the first wave pretty deeply the whole operation would have been aborted. thus saving Pearl before C-RAM even got switched on.
True. Even ultra gung ho would have been baffled to the point of just fleeing back home and trying to process what the hell just happened.
What would an IJN pilot have thought? "Fugu this shiitake," would be my guess.
One reason I think this was unrealistic has to do with the damage models of the ships. Remember, the planes bombing the ships were all but uncontested and only managed to sink 12 ships. It's safe to say the few hits that the planes were able to land after Iron dome ran out of ammo. Wouldn't have sunk the ships they hit. We have to remember some of the ships at Pearl Harbor took multiple direct hits without sinking. Also, to add to this, it was a complete surprise.
But the major reason this isn't realistic is the planes only targeting the ships. There may have been 353 planes on the air raid, but not all bombed the harbor. You had planes that were bombing other targets like the airfields. You had fighters patrolling to help protect the bombers. Among many other tasks. So, at the very most, you would have had 275-300 bombers. That only leaves 115-140 planes after Iron dome shot down well over half at 160. Do we really believe that if the Japanese lost well over half of their bomber aircraft before even making a hit on Target, they wouldn't have turned and ran? Also, the air defense systems were not positioned in the proper layered positions. Since they were so close to the ships, it allowed for the "lob attack". That wouldn't have worked at all if they had been properly positioned. The Iron dome wouldn't have been just bunched into one cluster. It would have been placed in several spots around the harbor in a layered layout used in NATO air defense doctrine. If they had been spread out in smaller groups as a layered total air defense, it would have increased its efficacy and kill percentage. Lastly, if they had only bombed the harbor using all 353 planes as bombers. Then, in minutes, the US would have had all their fighters in the air picking off unprotected weighed down fighter bombers. A massive minority of the bombers would have been picked off before they even got within range of the Iron dome.
But even if you kept the basic premise the same, to test the limits of the Iron dome and CRam in DCS.
First, you have to at least get a realistic figure of bomber aircraft that bombed the harbor.
Second, you have to research what kind of damage these ships took before sinking and adjust the damage model. Lastly, reset the air defense systems in the correct layered positions to give them a much more realistic efficacy.
it's so beautiful.
@26:05 genius for the streaming rate, but what was the size of a squadron or a wing in the japanese air forces at the time? That would have been more realistic, besides the fact that they would have tried to come in as a saturating wave anyway
What is 6.9? A good thing ruined by a period.
I get it!
Cap, if you click on the individual iron dome launchers does it tell you what missiles are left?
i always thought c ram standed for counter rocket air and mortar, but turns out it is counter rocket artillery and mortar
Fourth time? I hope you get better soon! I've been lucky and haven't even caught covid yet...or maybe I did and I'm one of those who doesn't get any symptoms.
This was the best chance for the hawk system to flex for a change and you choose a more modern syatem. 😂
Would love to see C-Ram vs the kind of mass formations the IJN used. Would the CRAM/Patriot been able to deal with saturation attacks?