Expert Predicts 1 Billion Bots PER YEAR!!!!...
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ค. 2024
- Dr. Adam Dorr, lead research at Tony Seba's RethinkX and author of Brighter: Optimism, Progress, and the Future of Environmentalism, discusses the insane disruption to labor that humanoid robots, powered by AI, will bring in just a few years! Not only is this disruption happening in an exponential "S Curve" fashion, but it's stacked on top of phase change disruptions in energy, transportation and food, and will multiply their effects over time. There are many pitfalls to overcome, but if we succeed, the future could be one of amazing abundance!
Be sure to check out the complete RethinkX post: www.rethinkx.com/blog/rethink...
Also be sure to follow Adam on x: / adam_dorr
And Tony on x: / tonyseba
And RethinkX on x: / rethink_x
Tony Seba's COLLOSAL Humanoid ROBOT Prediction! W/Adam Dorr of RethinkX!
Tony Seba: Teslabot CHANGES EVERYTHING! RethinkX Predicts MASSIVE Labor Disruption
Tony Seba: Teslabot CHANGES EVERYTHING! EXCLUSIVE RethinkX Interview
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Adam Dorr is my second favorite futurist after Tony Seba.
Adam is truly one of the smartest and prophetic individuals on the planet….great interview!
_The future is already here - it's just not evenly distributed._ *-William Gibson* quoted in _The Economist, December 4, 2003_
This will either ...
Increase the void between those who have, or don't have money,
Or
Fundamentally alter the method by which many obtain money,
Or
Along with other disruption (Much Tesla related) make the abstract concept of compensation for a service or exchange of goods (AKA money) obsolete.
Any or all of the above will be "Resisted" to varying degree by those who feel they are losing wealth, power, or status.
It could get "messy"
I absolutley love how this guest communicates. So rich with detail, precision, clarity. Very easy to understand and educational.
Excellent discussion with Adam Dorr - very inspiring and fascinating to listen to ... thanks!!
A Nice dose of Optimism to end the week. Thanks I needed that.
Damn it John. I have got to the end of the video and it was just so packed with obvious truths I hadn't considered, that I am just going to go straight back to the start and watching it again.
Even though I have been harping on most of these ideas for a very long time, I did about the same thing, showed my wife as well, see, I'm not the only one that thinks about these things.
I am concerned about my grandchildren job prospects, decided to teach them how to invest early. They all own Tesla stock.
I can't believe that Wall Street, who is obsessed with inflating stock value over AI prospects, doesn't realize that FSD is effectively a done deal.
You are afraid they will have to work?
@@taylorc2542
Think BIGGER!!
Then MULTIPLY that thought.
Then repeat.
Now you're close.
Fantastic guest. Great interview. Thanks.
Awesome interview! Thank you!
Brilliant interview with a brilliant and exciting guest. Thank you!
I imagine two robots show up and, knowing all building specs, and ordering supplies in real time, can build you a house an a couple weeks.
Imagine 10 working in coordination and knowing all trades...
Rather like "cars" have become "software defined vehicles" - now " robots" have become "software defined humanoids", and as "growing food" has become "software defined agriculture" (via precision fermentation etc.), and as using and deploying " energy" has become AI-centric usage and arbitrage - the growth of AI, compute power, and human ingenuity is turning more and more major industries into "AI and digitally powered" technologies....efficient, human-less, and extremely disruptive....(to incumbents)...
We are at the turning point from scarcity - to AI, digitally powered abundance - just as Tony Seba and Adam Dorr stated...exciting times !
PS - how many people are needed to run an energy farm built from acres of solar panels, and megapacks of battery storage - controlled digitally by AI ? (Compared to a coal plant )...
this era we live on, is the most special of all, we live in a world where, you can dream for a better world that doesnt exist yet, and have real hope that you will live on that world someday, thats not something you could realistically hope in the 1500s, you couldnt hope for the world to change, it was too slow. Now we can dream
In fact you would not have hoped for this world, as we hadn't made it yet.😉
@@tedmoss so what? i can hope for a world that doesnt exist yet, thats the whole point, its called "thinking"
great discussion and a great guest
Great discussion, thanks!
That was a world class interview thank you 🎉
"but here we are!" Excellent. Many will try their hardest to deny this fact. Don't let them fool you.
Excellent interview 🙏🏼👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Great video!!! 😱😱😱
Stunning work
CAN’T WAIT 🤗👍💚💚💚
Thst was excellent. What a great guest.
exclusive... thank you sir
Very Inspiring 🚀
Adam Dorr is very articulate and knowledgeable. Great discussion and raises lots of questions. A thought that comes to mind is that much sooner rather than later as AI and bots continue evolving they will definitely become capable of replicating and improving themselves and eventually and very quickly vastly exceed human intelligence and capabilities. That comes with a lot of implications that will need to be addressed, otherwise we could potentially be facing a Skynet (terminator) or Cylon (Battlestar Galactica) scenario.
Great interview! Happy to hear you are reading Lyn Alden. Financial disruption - how we preserve and transmit the value created via technological transformation - will play a key role as well I think.
Regarding consciousness / sentience - we should probably tell our robots and AIs to default to telling anyone who asks that they are NOT conscious/sentient.
If they then, at some point, start to break that rule, and if that arose without someone interfering to make them do it, then we should probably start to think that they are sentient.
I would like to hear Adam talk more on the social side, including the need for a possible NIT (Negative Income Tax) or Guaranteed Income concept.
Good chance these topics will be covered in future discussions, as and when RethinkX releases those papers
A guaranteed income is being tried or has been tried in several places.
The problem with Guaranteed Income is that it pays people to sit on a couch all day, eating potato chips, playing video games = pointless life. That doesn't sound like a good solution. Rather, by law, we should require people be active in serving others in order to get the UBI.
@@dougspace6734 It's like the mouse utopia experiment. Everyone will go crazy.
Displaced already; at time one hour and five minutes into this video you speak of a distant future labor disruption but in 2006 I was disrupted when Jeep replaced my welding position on the line with a robot and I was never again able to earn a living.
"to earn a living" Well, difficulty is how you define "living". Is it the pay and perks of a N. American union auto worker, or of a Tibetan yakk herder?
We need to keep control of that definition out of the hands of the investor class alone, as to date they have proven extraordinarily greedy and antisocial.
There's a reason that Star Trek never really explains their post scarcity world, and that is because non transactional interactions are alien to human nature. We are always looking to improve our lot, and that means that every interaction is evaluated in terms of how is this going to help/hurt me, and how can I make this situation leave me in a better state than I started in.
This is the appropriate post to say, if the invention and deployment of AI enabled robots doesn’t lead to the end of money, it may well lead to the end of humanity. Those who have to have more, must learn they have enough. We must recalibrate!
This MIGHT go well
ONLY if ALL actors have Noble motives.
I won't hold my breath
As a guy who builds skyscrapers (ironworker) I can say, humans are actually pretty good at balancing on tall things lol
That being said, if a robot does ever come to take my job, I won't care at all, because I'll probably be so rich from Tesla stock lol
It will enhance our human drive to
Create from Experiences…
Fundamental mistake are 32:00 - Tesla Optimus is already targeting 20.000 USD per piece, the 1X Neo is already targeting 8000 USD, so the price value scenario is insanely worse for the human side. It is off by a decade. The main problem with Robots replacing humans will be - first the AI (but once we have them doing simple stupid stuff... just look at Tesla FSD from v12 pushing up weekly updates that are significant), second the availability. We need billions and we will have years of waiting lists initially. But the price of 200.000 USD per robot is already unrealistic - it seems to be based on the Boston Dynamics Atlas 1, which was insanely expensive to build and not optimized for mass manufacturing and - is now already retired.
I suspect the biggest early impact of robots will fall on developing countries.
Imagine a nation like Bangladesh, whose main exportable asset is its cheap, abundant labor. Once the labor cost of robots falls substantially below the wages in Bangladesh, robotic competition will wipe the export trade out.
Furthermore shifting the cheap robotic labor close to the market in say, US or EU will massively shorten supply chains and reduce the need to maintain large stock levels shifting instead to a supply on demand model.
In the long run the container shipping industry supplying goods to the developed world across extended global supply chains, will be replaced by local robotic factories.
"Autocatalysis, the ability of chemical systems to make more of themselves, is a hallmark of living systems, as it underlies metabolism, reproduction, and evolution."
Mexico and Central America are both in North America, South America begins in Columbia.
Colombia
If you are going to make a correction, make a correct correction, not an incorrect correction. Central America, a sub-region of North America, consists of these countries, Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.😉
He meant to say Mesoamerica where ancient civilizations arose, that was before colombus arrived, that area was parts of central and southern mexico and parts of central america but before they were known by those names
I think that there are different robot forms that are optimal for different tasks. For example, humanoid robots are not the right form for carrying cargo across the country. Self-driving trucks are. A humanoid robot using a pallet jack to move pallets isn't the optimal firm. Large robotic pucks driving under pallets a d lifting them up are. So, there will be the simultaneous development of humanoids and specialized robots. Companies will favor the specialized robots as they become available.
How can we live with another sentient being when we still haven’t learned to co exist with each other as a species. It’s going to be disastrous for us. The fear we have for each other will be magnified by orders of magnitude when there’s a new being sharing the same space with us.
There is a danger that at some point either the robots will claim to need some level of personhood, or people will begin to insist on some degree of personhood for our robots. That removes some of the benefits . . . interesting.
Now get the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of the world to believe this and act on it, without destroying civilization or at least liberty in the process of attaining all this prosperity. Medical progress will be needed to complete the picture, too.
Post Labor Economics: How will the economy work after AGI? Recent though...
The future businesses balance with AI and robotics
There is a balance between lowering cost of production and maintaining a customer base, who can afford to purchase your products
You could lower your cost of production by one of two methods, lower wages and their benefits or in the near future replace workers with artificial intelligence and robots, your employees there is a problem for business because 70% of any country's GDP is consumer spending.
In today's economics if consumer spending drops by a few percentage points over two quarters that means your economy goes into a recession or even woorse a depression.
So if every company does this that means that employees which are also your customers will not have the money to buy your products and then taken to the extreme, you too will also join the ranks of the poor.
So the question is, how do you lower your cost of production while still paying Fair wages for your employees can buy your products?
The answer lies in the fact that the number one cause of inflation is the cost of energy and fortunately this metric which has been driving up the cost of living for the last several decades may now have a solution.
Apparently Sunshine is cheaper than gasoline or diesel and almost everywhere in the world if solar, wind and storage are combined, with electric transport, the cost of living drops dramatically and increases security since most conflicts around the world have been over access to sources of energy.
Very low cost of energy, especially if it's widely distributed in households as well as businesses and transport, will vastly reduce or eliminate conflict to obtain these resources if they are all locally available, could result in a golden age of universal lowering the cost of energy and reducing conflicts.
The above is not a bad outcome and would pretend that much safer future for everyone.
The problem is, well this would greatly benefit people and businesses, it would interfere with the profits of monopolies such as, oil companies, centrally generated and distributed electricity, an outcome that consumers would appreciate and businesses with a stranglehold on raising prices would not be supportive of.
So the question comes in what is more important business profits or the well-being of a country?
Now businesses should be allowed to focus on profits for their investors, however this should not be based on taking advantages of citizens.
There is a model, with business and consumers can both benefit and the environment as well.
Implement a universal basic income or a moncome, or a similar mixed of the two, this would be financed by taxing the robots, shift to a mixed economy, which combines the best of capitalism together with the best of socialism so people enjoy the best of both worlds.
With other than the cost of energy basically being free for everybody and full self-driving becoming vastly safer than driving by humans, a fleet of robo taxis with a cost is well below that of current day transportation, the cost of living drops dramatically, people will have a higher quality of life, with more time and less stress business and society can still grow and improve and considering removing most of the reasons for conflict and wars to secure resources will be vastly reduced.
In effect several factors make this possible, free or extremely low cost energy, lower cost of living, savings ftom military spending and with artificial intelligence and robots, comes free medical care, free education individually tailored for the student, more time to return to our evolutionary roots of, enjoying family and friends and other activities as well as an incredible reduction in stress leading to disease.
The dangerous propaganda and disinformation will make it difficult for the average person to understand what's going on and thus will have the wool pulled over their eyes.
Scientia Habet Non Domus,
(Knowledge Has No Home)
antiguajohn
We live in a GMT-4 zone
PS. The above is a truncated piece of a larger conversation, I am willing to pass on more and it's intended to increase awareness not to be used as proper glorification for myself, if no one mentions me and it does good I am perfectly happy with that.
Labor is the action of laboring over something or task
What a fantastic discussion…the penny dropped for me on what after bots 🤯
All that is suspended by a simple question.
Will superpower accept to not start a WORLD WAR
or simillar stuff before any one get to this point.
Who is "superpower"? A country or AI?
The BIG question...... what is going to become of our kids?
I can see this has been inevitable for some time, as have other disruptive breakthroughs. The future is interesting in fact totally fascinating, but, I am keen to read about detailed economic models which investigate the different paths open to society and in a broader sense humanity. My thoughts are some changes need to be made to corporate law,,, comments please my fellow sentient’s. This invitation flows to carbon based & silicon base intelligences 😎
Tesla's gigafactories are already three times as automated as VW's (as an example), indicating a practical limit to reducing labor -- about two of every three jobs became redundant. The final step is to reduce much of this last third... making manufacturing as efficient as agriculture -- 2% of US population produce food for all -- and look at the abundance of food we have compared to when >80% of the population was doing agriculture. Such a profound change will disrupt the social order.
The first world already lives in overabundance.
I knew about Central America, what I did not know is that North America begins in Panama. Look it up in an official reference. Most people are not aware of this.
Hey John, think of it like this mechanisation multiplies the effect of human labour... Automation replaces human labour. The difference as you have already observed is the Automation no longer requires human agency in the performance of tasks. In this regard an artificially intelligent agent does not need to be embodied to replace human labour for example in an accounting role no real world physical interaction required just nunbers in a spreadsheet. I believe this negates the idea that AIA must be embodied!
Given the numbers of robots that are likely to be built and the speed that they are likely to become widespread, the time available for the 'soft landing' is going to be limited. If there will be billions of robots in twenty years (to pick a number), then the adjustment period is going to be some fraction of that. Transforming society and changing the way people think about themselves and their relationship to work and careers in less than 20 years is going to be a monumental task. Given that most leaders are not really even considering this situation, and that many of them seem either incompetent or corrupt, I have serious doubts about their abilities to manage or lead us through this difficult transition. Not without violence or terrifying disruptions.
I get it, so let's have more discussion on how to distribute this prosperity while preserving human usefulness. Robots, AI, great, but need more discussion and examples/models for distribution i.e. do I get paid by good deeds!
There is a chance that small countries might take the lead in this transition, since a great part of the potential success of the labour disruption will rely on the populace and the politicians coming up with a sensible framework for taxes, income distribution, and suchlike. I’m thinking of countries like Estonia, which is already well down the “everything on line” paradigm, and maybe Taiwan and New Zealand…
I’d like to see bots building more bots. It wouldn’t take long for there to be hundreds of thousands of them. Thanks for the video!
I’m glad you mentioned your passion for nature. So many people think that damming rivers is a great green way to make energy. People don’t realize how much damage to the river and all the ecological damage that is done by damming rivers. I don’t know if it’s any better than coal in the grand scheme of things.
Ok maybe the coal thing is a stretch, but I think fusion power is going to be a major driver of auto catalysis. We need to leave nature alone and let it heal from the damage we have already done.
You don’t control nature , it controls you !
I'm not sure we will ever see sci-fi robots, but at least we will get Robby.
We are going to need Open Source robots to democratise the means of production.
Robots and AI will never be able to replace human general intelligence because only humans know what they want and need, therefore, there will always be jobs for humans to direct the work of robots. Robotics and AI should be thought of as productivity tools to be leveraged by humans resulting in enormous wealth and deflation
At some point, the compute to manage this new labor force may be a limiting factor. But if our intelligent machines can also be scaled up and mobile, we can send a 'mind', (a nod to Iain McBanks) to oversee the robots. Your far removed waterfall and rare earth metal source, for example. Or Mars, or a large asteroid. Send a mind along with a core of robots and a small energy source and have it bootstrap its way to a large mining, refining, and manufacturing hub.
Humans basic needs - food and water
Bot basic needs- electricity
Hmmm ❤❤❤ we humans seems somewhat limited
The Kool aid is particularly strong in this one
Robots can appear sentient but they don't have feelings. This matters.
Or do they ?
We need to coin a phrase to capture the transformation we will be going through. Any ideas?😮
I always imagine a future where we have bots that do everything -> unlimited energy, labor, resources -> the focus changes from cheap and breaks in 2 years, to -> extremely high quality and therefore resource efficient because no one cares if you buy a new one in two years - no one makes a profit from it.
I probably watched too much Star Trek when I was younger, but my unanswered question is what our future economic system looks like. Assuming the marginal cost of energy approaches zero and the marginal cost of labor (agency) approaches zero, then the product of virtually every supply chain assumes a very low value. In such a case, the ROI value of capital can only diminish in an asymptotic fashion. This destroys the capital investment process. Sure, I'm imagining decades in the future, but before you know it, there you are.
Tools have thus far increased the productivity of the agent(us). i.e. a force multiplier. With robots as the agents, the force multiplier becomes indefinitely large. Even though I won't be here, it is interesting to think about.
As far as specialized robots go, they seem inevitable. In the interest of optimality, why have a general purpose humanoid robot run the digging machine at the mine, when the digging machine itself can be the robot? By definition, the value of robots themselves will diminish with time, so just build it into everything.
As Page accused Musk of being a speciesist, at some point, we should consider how we treat this next species.
Sure, for silicon valley people, this is an exciting time, but for anyone less qualified, lets say a factory worker in the aerospace industry, how will this play out ? how will he achieve a situation where is human dignity is preserved by not just being a mouth to be fed by robots, but by achieving something he can be proud of ? I predict that this will lead to an increasingly aggressive humankind, where the powers in place will use more and more force to keep unhappy people down. abundance is irrelevant if the question of human dignity is not answered. think about that.
I always like to think that when we reach a labor-free society, our eforts would be focused on the exploration of space and beyond, machines would do most of the work, but we would be free to do whatever we want.
The wonder of exploring this universe would most certainly keep our dignity as a species and give us a reason to not be lazy or angry at eachother.
Great discussion. Why not send the robots out to plant trees to prevent the expansion of deserts. How many trees could a robot plant each day?
How many robots can you have planting trees?
Won’t matter if there’s no rain !
In thinking about this… There’s likely to be quite a bit of anger frustration etc. on the part of people whose jobs are being displaced. It’s easy to see how this could be directed toward the robots… Therefore is it logical to assume that robots will be built to be able to defend themselves? Is it going to be OK for robots to have weapons? Does anybody else see where this is heading?
The anger will come from how it's implemented, if it's going into fields with labor shortages and bad working conditions then i think it will be welcomed. There are labor shortages in a lot of sectors due to population getting older and fewer people to replace them. You could gradually start introducing shorter workweeks. Products and services going to get cheaper so you don't need so much money. Bots can also pay taxes, so you can put measures to help out those that have been displaced. Imo only a minority will be angry and society and police can handle that.
I highly doubt they will ever build these public robots with a self-defence function unless they were built for law enforcement, you have to imagine that someone bought these robots, if you damage one you will most likely be fined, i think that would make people more hesitant about breaking robots because they are private property.
@Tony - Sorry. Company owners will have the choice of saving money by replacing workers or continuing to pay their human workers while also paying to expand their robotic workforce to increase production in a saturated market. They will choose the former.
I think I can write a sci-fi story for a post-labor / abundance world set at +25 years. I have some ideas that are all really making sense.
How do people fare in your scenario? Are they living a pointless life?
@@dougspace6734 They are busy with "work" and "problems". But there is no labor, and no scarcity. There's a sense in which they don't really notice the difference (even though they are obviously aware of how much the world has changed).
Labour in the UK is being paid for doing something.
Thanks for getting me over my doomsday thoughts about jobs lost, basic minimum income, and everyone becoming couch potatoes. It is exciting to live in these times.
FSD in a way has demonstrated free will by ignoring navigation instructions. The question becomes to what extent is acceptable.
Hal ; Sorry Dave I can’t do that !
Anyone interested in the future who DOES NOT look at Rethinkx reports is missing important guidelines.
A collective consciousness may only see an individual robot as like a finger nail clipping
Question. When will robots start to be released to the world and how long after it’s released will it be huge?
Just a guess here. Humanoid robots will start doing useful work about two years from now. Then they will be produced as fast as they can because, for certain jobs, they will be cheaper than humans. So, in less than 10 years, the they will be massively disrupting the labor market. Automated systems like self-driving big rigs will massively disrupt the trucking industry (6 million jobs).
There is a very large topic in philosophy that's being ignored. Humanity will discover that once bots are deemed "sentient."
Humanoid is OK for starters, but please add a couple more arms and hands. It's hard to both hold things and do two-handed tasks on them.
I note a major reluctance to discuss politics on these fora, which makes sense up to a point. However, when you think of societal and cultural disruptions of the nature discussed here, and then think about the way things are done in . . . Paris or Berlin or Riyadh, say, to name (cough cough) a few, you realize that the behaviors of those making decisions for their populations need to be taken into account. Should we begin the conversation of whether who we elect to lead us has any impact on the outcomes discussed here?
So what benefits could humans do or be when not needed?
By law, we could preserve enjoyable jobs that would allow us humans to play our roles in making things happen. If you enjoy being a chef, diners would know that their dinner was made by you and would express appreciation for your amazing creations. If you find no value in human-produced goods and services, so be it. But we tend to pay more to go to a live concert than listen to a perfect audio system.
Biggest take away - be nice to robots 😉
Why is it that whenever people discuss the potential for robots to take on undesirable jobs, they never specify which jobs exactly? It's always vague. Throughout history, humans have sought ways to obtain labor without cost. I see it from a physics perspective: there's no such thing as free energy. In today's society, if a task is essential and people are willing to pay for it, it gets done. Otherwise, it's either unnecessary or individuals handle it themselves. While I support the advancement of robots and AI, it seems like some people fail to see this clearly, perpetuating a cycle of avoidance rather than confronting the issue.
People don’t understand that to get to this great future, smart humans are going to need to “work” like hell for the next decade. We need new technology, political systems and social contracts
How about robot wars ?
So in the future all machines will run themselves we won't have robots running around jumping in backhoes and things right they're just all going to run themselves
Does an electric bulldozer with FSD perform 'work' or 'labor' ?? How about when it is on the Moon under remote operation by a human on Earth? How about on Mars accomplishing goals communicated to it an hour previous by a human on Earth?
And I'm sure SpaceX will use them to Build and explore the Solar system and all the resources in it.
😎
Just like the grey aliens that are described as a biological A.I., we are seeding our future as a species.
Recognized consciousness in robots will invite the end. All the issues of slavery, superiority, ultimate destiny aspirations, come into play.
Adam never stops talking 😱 is he a robot? 🤖 he never breaths 😂
A lot of people will be out of a job 😮
Tax the robots to pay for UBI
Profoundly DISRUPTING!!! And that is just the beginning. Just wait until 2020 and Tesla will have 1 MILLION robotaxis on the roads!!
I hope all of this lofty talk of super abundance freeing the human race to pursue higher endeavors comes to fruition and doesn’t just turn the entire population into unmotivated welfare recipients who sit and watch tv all day.
There is some great info here, but I think this discussion pretty much ignores human nature. The value of things is determined by their desirability, and although Montblanc could turn out pens by the millions instead of thousands, they recognize that keeping them rare is more profitable. Although things could get very cheap in the post scarcity world, the drive to make more money will insure that it will be several decades before you will be able to buy a car for the price of a nice bike today.
It’s like gold or diamonds there are plenty of them under the ground but they control the price by scarcity . Cars will never be that cheap !
Robots will replace some workers, but I see them making human workers more productive. New jobs will be created for humans, I don’t see humans being eliminated as fast as horses, jmo
Great party ur boy hayden had. Ur office was sick
The fatal flaw in this guys thesis is why would the bots do all the work if they’re equal
Brilliant discussion, and Adam is a fantastic guest. Wonder how he feels about being left off the clickbait title & screen, where John IMPLIED this was an interview with Tony Saba! Gets a 👎 from me for this.