Hello you savages. Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/ Here’s the timestamps: 00:00 What is Rational Optimism? 01:15 The Benefits of Stress for Innovation 11:04 Good News Takes a Lot of Time 14:51 Why Is Bad News More Memorable? 21:25 Progress Requires Pessimism & Optimism 28:55 Hiring the Greatest Leaders 35:30 What Do You Think is Productive But Isn’t? 41:58 Good Things Are Supposed to Be Hard 51:56 Most Competitive Advantages Die Out 59:21 Never Discount the Potential of New Technology 1:04:12 Why Success Looks Easier than it is 1:10:57 Incentives Are the Most Powerful Force in the World 1:16:20 Nothing is More Persuasive than What You Personally Experience 1:20:02 The Tension of a Long-Term Mindset 1:31:07 Why Humans Are Seduced by Complexity 1:34:32 Who Would You Be if You Were Born to Different Parents? 1:40:23 Why the Richest People in the World Are Divorced 1:47:20 Where to Find Morgan
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints. 330 Exodus 26:7 15 Exodus 26:9, 12 - 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π 314 Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13 The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long. One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits. The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits. 3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18 ............................. π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes. Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
💪🏾🔥🔥... On my way to see the list and watch this... I know you're not into politics but the news Russia has now the capacity to put 2 nuclear bombs in the space and take the power grid down, plus some numbers and other shards of info that have been coming for about 2 years, is it viable to have a round table about it? And for once involve the non-violent resistance side into the mix... That's it. Thank you for all the previous pods and dedication on expanding ideas! Stay strong 🧠
I remember that from Lawrence of Arabia! Near the beginning he puts a match out with his bare finger or something. I loved that movie I should watch it again sometime
There are no laws in psychology, only theories. That’s what makes it a quote-on-quote soft science (as a psychology major about to graduate). If you ask me the distinction between soft science and hard science is just complexity, but that's me.
A law is just a set of repeatedly observed phenomenon in a scientific field of study as would appear to always be true - sometimes self evidenced. As in, despite rigorous theory & observation, contraindicatory data has not been observed. Laws are not permanent. They are just the best summary of observation we have. A good example is "bravery cannot be faked" - bravery is taking action despite fear - to falsely take the action despite the fear is still taking action despite the fear & is brave
Psychology can never be a science as much as psychology would like to claim in order to monetize it for insurance. The subject matter is human, constantly changing even after the experiment and during any interaction or experience. No experiment can truly be duplicated and hypothesis fasified
@@anthonypesola3294 you have no idea what a Law in science represents, you have no idea what you are talking about. The laws of thermodynamic will always be true given the same parameters no matter what. Your essay speaks from a true soft science person
"The most successful people are not the ones who can produce complex solutions to all their problems, but the ones who are able to apply fundamental methods to engage even their most complex problems". As a part-time esports coach, I have found this to be true not just in competition sport, but in all facets of life. Understanding fundamentals of how and why something works, lets you break it down to its core components and tackle them individually - while the opposite would be like a big soup where everything mixes together and problems compound even if just one part is slightly out of order. If you do not understand what salt tastes like on its own, how will you know that lack of salt is the reason the other flavors in your problem soup feel flat? Also alternative: I would rather find myself thinking; "Oh wow, I actually learned something from this IKEA manual-esque method that is simplified so a toddler could get it", than the opposite of "Oh wow, this topic is presented in a manner so complex that I am clearly not certified to even learn about it, let alone start implementing it in my own life".
No fluff? The guy called today's economy very strong in the first five minutes and we're on the brink of hyper inflation and the most promising market growth is in the defense sector because WW3 is a foregone conclusion.
The insights on long-term mindset vs. short-term reactions are spot on. Entrepreneurs should note that true competitive advantage often stems from creating a customer success strategy that evolves with client feedback, not just innovation for its own sake. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
Excellent observation. I just don’t like the corporate shareholders greed we see today. For example food- smaller portions, lowest quality at highest prices, just to help their bottom line. Or companies like Boing airplanes producing a dangerous, subpar product to satisfy the greed of a small handful. It’s easier to pay off the lawsuits, rather than create a quality, safe product.
48:37 The thing about the Donner Party story and every "example we should learn from" narrative, is that if they took the SAME shortcut and it paid off with wild success, then the story would be about "taking big risks" and "fortune favors the bold", instead of "they were tempted by a short cut and paid for it with misery and cannibalism." It always seems to me that there's a convenience to choosing a "they took a risk" lesson for your life & business book, and then finding a historical tail that shores it up, but it's arbitrary because there's ALSO a story about "people who took a bold risk and sailed across the ocean and found a new continent" or "took a risk on this unknown Facebook company" if you want teach the exact opposite lesson. I think the real lesson is "Gambles pay off or don't. We'll pretend there was predictable cause and effect in our narrative, later, and use your story to support our life & business advise."...
Chris, thank you man! I am grateful you release 3 episodes a week. Especially so thoughtful on the questions, responses, and comments you volley with your guests. You enlighten me continually, and I'm super thankful you have given me 700 episodes to consume versus watching television that has no return. Thank you, see you soon mate.
I've been borderline broke my entire life (I'm 57), I have no property, no stocks, shares or money. Live on a veteran pension and I fantasise about winning the lotto. But I just know that winning the lotto would destroy me, end me. Yet, I still fantasise about 'all that cash'. I don't play the lotto.
The cost of innovation in good times is risk. You're expending resources on a Gamble when you could be expending resources on what is known to work or on maximizing comfort, security and/or profit.
@@friendlyfire7861"worth it" is highly subjective. Advancement is valuable but more valuable than living unmolested, more valuable than avoiding chaos and destruction? I think innovation is a poor excuse for violence.
I agree, as it's said "Necessity is the mother of invention". Unfortunately often BAD events are the ones that highlight the "Necessity", therefor invention to follow. But if we were smarter, we could highlight the "Necessities" such as Better health, More justice, More equality ... on our own without the need to go "One step back, eg with with wars, pandemics...." and realize that we are already one step back and we need to "step forward"
Good talk. Good points. Just sad that Morgan Housel gets facts in his supporting examples SO VERY WRONG. (1) Sears was NOT just a clothings store that sold some washers & dryers. It was essentially the Amazon of its day. The Sears catalogue of 1890 contained over 530 pages of items. Everything from cloths to furniture, musical instruments, firearms. You could buy kit-houses that were delivered so you could build the house. Amazing! - They were actually MORE encompassing than Walmart. - They did NOT BUY Discover Card. They launched it themselves. (Though they did buy Dean Witter & Caldwell Banker). - They were bought by KMART in 2004. So, it wasn't the fact that "it all went to their head" that killed them. The new owners failed to keep Sears alive. - KMART also went from 2,486 stores globally in 1994 to 6 stores today. - KMART failed to invest in computer technology to manage their supply chain. They lost the edge to Walmart, Target & internet sales. - But primarily, their brand was a mess, they had a large data breach, were sued by Sega, Target and others.. So that analogy was a MESS.... (2) Henry Ford did NOT invent the car. (or "put all the pieces together").... Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot built the first steam-powered car in 1769. And Carl Benz (Mercedes Benz) put the first combustion engine car into FULL production in 1826. Henry Ford popularized the assembly line for manufacture. But it was actually invented by the meat-processing industry in the midwest. - People saw the car as a form of transportation NOT as a machine of war. It took 89 years for before it was eventually utilized in WWI for troop transport. Then the tank. (American had no mechanized force until the 1916 "Pursuit of Poncho Villa" when the first truck, a "GMC Model 15" was brought into service. (3) The internet did NOT come about "30 yrs ago". The first commercial ISPs showed up in 1989. But I was on the internet (dialup BBSs) in high school 1983(?)- (I'm not a Boomer. I am Gen X). I was also given a Mac laptop when I worked for Adobe in 1995. They were HUGELY successful at the time for businesses (1991). But they were expensive. It wasn't that people didn't understand their value (AT ALL). It was that they were expensive for consumers. ($2,200, which was a LOT of money back then. So think of how much better we are doing economical now. Everyone has computers & laptops. And the price hasn't really gone up that much. (4) The Donner Party was 86 people.... They DID NOT "meet a quack who promised them a shortcut". On June 27th they were warned by James Clyman NOT to take Hastings Pass because he thought it too difficult with wagons. The next morning, it was Reed to chose to IGNORE the advice of a friend (who had just travelled back through the pass). They had derived their plan from a book entitled "The Emigrants' Guide to Oregon and California" by Major Lansford Hastings, a lawyer and explorer who had fought in the US Civil War. The book was written (based on his travels) as a guide to Oregon & California in order to entice settlers to settle (and colonize) northern California. The Donners themselves were comfortable but NOT wealthy. George Donner was a 62yr old farmer. James Reed however WAS wealthy. Though he was the only one. He is the one who essentially funded the trip. It is likely that the lavish two story wagon Reed insisted on bringing along contributed to their failure to reach the pass when the season was more favorable. But Hastings previous experience on the journey had been without wagons. Many other used the Hastings Pass following the Springfield Party. (It takes you up to Truckee/Lake Tahoe. So it was NOT "bogus". However, Hastings, who was a week ahead of the Donner/Reed party, had left a note along the trail telling them the path had become impossible & to wait for him to return. It took 5 days for them to find Hastings. Hastings mapped out an alternate route. But Reed chose to turn off the track & take the party through tangled wilderness. -- It killed them. Not a bogus route. Not a quack. Arrogance. The takeaway of that story is -- (1) Don''t be arrogant. (2) Don't ignore the advice of those who have gone before you. (3) Don't shortcut the road to success using either 1 or 2. Sorry. I like to read history. I don't like to revise it or misquote it (if I can help it). I jumped into this channel via the rather incredible Eric Weinstein interview. Truly wonderful. - I just expected more.
And he said Europe didn't see much innovation or advancement in wwii- that's insane, between the British and the Germans there were plenty advancements
Regarding the topic of soldiers actually shooting at the enemy: Historically, there is ample evidence for it and that it happens without the soldier even being aware. And it was shown the success of armies is directly tied to how well soldiers actually shoot at their enemy. Modern training is exactly as described--it removes or desensitizes the thought of shooting at a person. For example, using a human silhouette at the gun range instead of a bullseye makes you more used to shooting at a person. Boot camps also use live fire exercises (crawling under barb wire wile real bullets are flying over them) for troops to become accustomed to real combat conditions. Much of military success is discipline & training more than tactics or even equipment.
That is so funny about walking through first class, when I travel and I walk through 1st class, I always say to the airline stewardess if I'm standing there are a few minutes ," well this is probably the longest I will ever be in 1st class or business class 😅😅" but I traveled to 13 countries in the last two years, so that's fine by me!! I have more important things to spend my money on 🌎🌎my last car was 24 years old when I had to get another car 🚗🚗. Loved the conversation, thank you!!
I think he asks some phenomenal questions, but also that he's read a little bit in a lot of areas and has some dunning Kruger going on in several. The example I've just come to is 2 chapters in where he's talking about climate change as a bad thing, using CO2 "ppi" (I'm assuming he meant ppm) climbing as his metric of it being bad, when I know he's had guests on who are SME in that area explaining to him why increased CO2 is actually a net good (at current levels, obviously we can't continue to expend fossil fuels at the rate we are or we will run out in short order). I think Douglas Murray was correct when he identified Chris as being high in agreeableness: not necessarily with his guest, but the audience kickback to anti-narrative climate guests is far more unpleasant than if he concurs with the status quo.
Other than saying the pandemic accelerated “good” research on mRNA technology, the podcast was lively and informative. I’m always amused when Chris mentions a related book, research article, etc. to the guest expert and gets a “never heard of it” in return. 😀
Yeah that wasn't the upside of the pandemic, which was that many people came to understand how the world REALLY works. Big Pharma exists to optimise returns for shareholders, not to optimise your health; Pharma's influence on govt & media is deep & wide.
There is a lot of very misinformed examples in this episode e.g. invention of cars, suburbs etc.... Also, it should be noted that the upper and aristocratic classes in 1930's Germany almost wholesale did not like or want Hitler and the Nazi party in power. The system was mostly hijacked by the support from the youth and working classes. Many just ended up going along as to not end up in jails/camps and lose all that they had.
As far as investing in the stock market, I've noticed that most people are worried about figuring out how much house in car they can afford. They're too busy looking the part rather than playing the part and playing the part takes time and sacrifice and knowing when to tell your ego no.
Chris you are honestly becoming my favorite podcaster. There is something about the way you approach the guests that attracts me to listen to your conversations way more than other people these days. Keep up the amazing work!
@33:57 open plan offices. Yeah, hate those too. I once went to work wearing big hearing protection devices. You know, the ones they use on a construction site. That'll shut them down. :-D
Morgan Housel is a a very smart guy, who has some really interesting thoughts. Psychology of Money changed my perception on so many things, and i absolutely love all his work! Chris, you are on a roll with the guests recently. Can't wait to listen to this!
I like this guy. That said, I wake up afraid every day. My whole world hangs by a thin thread. I give 100% all the time, but I make very little headway. What's worse is if I ever get sick. Then the money disappears. I don't have much to work with, so when it's gone, I have a big problem. But I have a routine that works, and I am miraculously healthy, so I manage to get by. But here's the thing, I feel like I am constantly treading water, moments from drowning, and I can't see the shore. It is really becoming scary as I age. I begin to think, if I don't figure this out soon, I will be too tired to continue. So yeah, I guess I'm Europe. No time to innovate, we gotta put these fires out. I wish I could get a little further up, so I don't live in fear of this all going away someday. And now you know the whole point of my striving. I must find a way to get me and mine just a little further up. I simply must.
Simpler explanation. Bad news gets more attention because by definition it requires action to resolve. Good news is lest interesting because no action is required. Pretty sure you would naturally evolve to be more focused on bad news, to be anything else could lead to your death.
So if like the desire and urge to become successful and earn lots of money is high then the company becomes successful in nowadays right?Then what pushes them to be set in a path of constant and uniform success? To make more money?,but we already got more
@24:50’ish you speak about specialization and role-relevant mindsets. Interesting that you echo Adam Smith views on this while with the speed of change and the lessons on risk of silos from the Titanic to the apathy of large corporations you mentioned earlier argue for being more nimble than a collection of specialists can muster. Ok - I’ll keep listening to see how you resolve this tension.
@11:45 regarding good news always playing out over a long time and never happening quickly. Watching the lottery ball numbers being picked and finding out you had the winning ticket.
I have never heard of this person before so all I can base a comment on is this interview. That said , what planet does he live on? The part where he says that everyone has different life experience is true but I can't image where he comes from to think that "The world is doing well right now". I had the idea from the title that he was a person who studies people and how they make choices. No , salesman or huckster maybe.
9:50 Oh God, now he's saying a command economy produces results. Yes, force can create a specific result--at an expense far in excess of what is achieved.
It's pretty interesting to me that Housel keeps talking about "success," but at no point does he define what that means to him, and in his usage. I'm pretty sure I get what he means, but it's also pretty clear that he has a fairly narrow definition of success (at least in this conversation), and may not be considering the possibility that there could be a vast sea of alternate possible definitions. It's especially amusing in that they explicitly discuss the need for new metrics AND so often point out these "successful" people are often miserable and have lives that he's not interested in having himself. To my ears, that doesn't sound like a very successful version of "success." Interesting conversation overall though (even if all of his anecdote and example details might be incorrect, misremembered, or otherwise way off)
This guy has great ideas, terrible information. The economy is not doing great... it was ww1 that started off with horses... Europe innovated MASSIVE amounts in the 40's. He sounds like someone who likes sounding smart rather than being smart. Who also is able to speak on obvious things that are always relevant so it's always good to talk about them.
I've got the hack for you boys, can't get into the mental framework to consider reading productive work? Simply call it studying. You are no longer carving out reading time from your spare leasure time. You make time for study.
Love Morgan Housel! His books are phenomenal. I also bought The Graet Depression Diaries (can't remember the exact name off of the top of my head) after listening to him recommend it in a previous podcast
How can truth be harsh? Truth is truth. It doesn’t carry a charge unless you give it one. What’s your spin? I agree that the cultural changes that will be the residuals of COVID 19 will be significant. Adversity shows us to ourselves in ways that ease cannot. We think best while walking. Thanks for this convo.
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints. 330 Exodus 26:7 15 Exodus 26:9, 12 - 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π 314 Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13 The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long. One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits. The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits. 3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18 ............................. π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes. Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
1:30:31 I wasn't commenting for this, but I don't think Tiger Woods messes with his swing very much. I totally agree with your premise and agree that something should not be messed with and some things should. The first thing that came to mind, and a lesson that I learned from a pro after doing it incorrectly for a very long time was joint compound on the seams and corners after installing drywall. It's so easy to keep working the mud and trying to make it smooth and close to what you envision the finish being like before it's set up and dry. Or, thinking that you can do an entire Corner both sides of the wall that makes it during any one application. Watch a professional once. They put little tiny thin layers on random spots it seems and let it dry because it shrinks. It dries quickly they come back again and build it up and something different areas in less time even, but with many more applications sessions they get it perfect with very little sanding a tiny fraction of the worst kind of fine dust that exists, and needs to be cleaned up. It's basically the same since the corners, but they only touch one side of a corner at a time. You never get a nice Corner if you're using the application trowel or knife where the corner of it will dig into the other side that still fresh. I was a series 7 license broker and financial planner for a decade so I know all about what Munger's point was, why Buffett would never leave Omaha for New York City, and how even the most disciplined investing mind can let that little emotional subconscious demon of disguised greed creep in, washing away disciplined gains. That little Minority Report bit, with Tom Cruise and Matt Damon, was perfectly hilarious. I was talking like you can hear me saying you're right you're right it's Minority Report!
"The long term investor doesn't get to ignore the short term volatility" - This statement is incorrect. Anyone who has a 401(k) who diligently puts money in and NEVER CHECKS THE BALANCE is a long-term investor who perfectly ignores the short term.
And because the U.S government had a contract to supply Russia with corn, after the dust bowl they had to buy foreign grown corn to supply Russia at the original contract price so it ended up costing Americans a fortune
Everything can be a science as long as an experiment always has the same result. Psychological experiments can never have the same result. Psyches are too different.
Hello you savages. Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/ Here’s the timestamps:
00:00 What is Rational Optimism?
01:15 The Benefits of Stress for Innovation
11:04 Good News Takes a Lot of Time
14:51 Why Is Bad News More Memorable?
21:25 Progress Requires Pessimism & Optimism
28:55 Hiring the Greatest Leaders
35:30 What Do You Think is Productive But Isn’t?
41:58 Good Things Are Supposed to Be Hard
51:56 Most Competitive Advantages Die Out
59:21 Never Discount the Potential of New Technology
1:04:12 Why Success Looks Easier than it is
1:10:57 Incentives Are the Most Powerful Force in the World
1:16:20 Nothing is More Persuasive than What You Personally Experience
1:20:02 The Tension of a Long-Term Mindset
1:31:07 Why Humans Are Seduced by Complexity
1:34:32 Who Would You Be if You Were Born to Different Parents?
1:40:23 Why the Richest People in the World Are Divorced
1:47:20 Where to Find Morgan
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints.
330 Exodus 26:7
15 Exodus 26:9, 12
- 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π
314
Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13
The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long.
One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits.
The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits.
3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18
.............................
π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes.
Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
Yo, is your patreon still active? I joined and got nothing sofar
💪🏾🔥🔥... On my way to see the list and watch this... I know you're not into politics but the news Russia has now the capacity to put 2 nuclear bombs in the space and take the power grid down, plus some numbers and other shards of info that have been coming for about 2 years, is it viable to have a round table about it? And for once involve the non-violent resistance side into the mix... That's it. Thank you for all the previous pods and dedication on expanding ideas! Stay strong 🧠
“The trick is not minding that it hurts” - powerful stuff, great pod.
I remember that from Lawrence of Arabia! Near the beginning he puts a match out with his bare finger or something. I loved that movie I should watch it again sometime
Hard times make great strong men, easy times makes we ask, lazy men
One of my favourite podcasts ever. Will rewatch many times to remind myself of these quotes. Fantastic host and guest, great intellectual chemistry.
There are no laws in psychology, only theories. That’s what makes it a quote-on-quote soft science (as a psychology major about to graduate). If you ask me the distinction between soft science and hard science is just complexity, but that's me.
There are also “no laws” in the art of naming videos. There is however a fair amount of “creative license.”
A law is just a set of repeatedly observed phenomenon in a scientific field of study as would appear to always be true - sometimes self evidenced. As in, despite rigorous theory & observation, contraindicatory data has not been observed. Laws are not permanent. They are just the best summary of observation we have.
A good example is "bravery cannot be faked"
- bravery is taking action despite fear
- to falsely take the action despite the fear is still taking action despite the fear & is brave
that's probably why i love psychology specifically
Psychology can never be a science as much as psychology would like to claim in order to monetize it for insurance. The subject matter is human, constantly changing even after the experiment and during any interaction or experience. No experiment can truly be duplicated and hypothesis fasified
@@anthonypesola3294 you have no idea what a Law in science represents, you have no idea what you are talking about. The laws of thermodynamic will always be true given the same parameters no matter what. Your essay speaks from a true soft science person
"The most successful people are not the ones who can produce complex solutions to all their problems, but the ones who are able to apply fundamental methods to engage even their most complex problems".
As a part-time esports coach, I have found this to be true not just in competition sport, but in all facets of life. Understanding fundamentals of how and why something works, lets you break it down to its core components and tackle them individually - while the opposite would be like a big soup where everything mixes together and problems compound even if just one part is slightly out of order. If you do not understand what salt tastes like on its own, how will you know that lack of salt is the reason the other flavors in your problem soup feel flat?
Also alternative: I would rather find myself thinking; "Oh wow, I actually learned something from this IKEA manual-esque method that is simplified so a toddler could get it", than the opposite of "Oh wow, this topic is presented in a manner so complex that I am clearly not certified to even learn about it, let alone start implementing it in my own life".
Like "first principle thinking"
Matt Ridley’s book “the rational optimist” is fantastic as well.
This was a pretty compelling, no-fluff conversation. On point while covering a wide array of topics. That's not easily done. Cheers.
No fluff? The guy called today's economy very strong in the first five minutes and we're on the brink of hyper inflation and the most promising market growth is in the defense sector because WW3 is a foregone conclusion.
The Collaborative Fund is a must read newsletter, good to see Morgan Housel on prominent pods.
The insights on long-term mindset vs. short-term reactions are spot on. Entrepreneurs should note that true competitive advantage often stems from creating a customer success strategy that evolves with client feedback, not just innovation for its own sake. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
By far one of the best podcasts I've ever seen. Thank you.
I could literally listen to these 2 men talk about life for hours and hours
Excellent observation. I just don’t like the corporate shareholders greed we see today. For example food- smaller portions, lowest quality at highest prices, just to help their bottom line. Or companies like Boing airplanes producing a dangerous, subpar product to satisfy the greed of a small handful. It’s easier to pay off the lawsuits, rather than create a quality, safe product.
48:37 The thing about the Donner Party story and every "example we should learn from" narrative, is that if they took the SAME shortcut and it paid off with wild success, then the story would be about "taking big risks" and "fortune favors the bold", instead of "they were tempted by a short cut and paid for it with misery and cannibalism."
It always seems to me that there's a convenience to choosing a "they took a risk" lesson for your life & business book, and then finding a historical tail that shores it up, but it's arbitrary because there's ALSO a story about "people who took a bold risk and sailed across the ocean and found a new continent" or "took a risk on this unknown Facebook company" if you want teach the exact opposite lesson.
I think the real lesson is "Gambles pay off or don't. We'll pretend there was predictable cause and effect in our narrative, later, and use your story to support our life & business advise."...
Yes. This guy is very conventional, clichéd, and limited in his thinking.
you're talking about "If" here while morgan tells you about historical fact
If this man is speaking 24 hours a day .if will love to listen to him ❤
So many rich takes and insight… definitely saving the video…
Chris, thank you man! I am grateful you release 3 episodes a week. Especially so thoughtful on the questions, responses, and comments you volley with your guests. You enlighten me continually, and I'm super thankful you have given me 700 episodes to consume versus watching television that has no return.
Thank you, see you soon mate.
podcasts like these are what make me appreciate being born in this era of time
@Cognitive_Wisdom facts man. Grateful
I've been borderline broke my entire life (I'm 57), I have no property, no stocks, shares or money. Live on a veteran pension and I fantasise about winning the lotto. But I just know that winning the lotto would destroy me, end me. Yet, I still fantasise about 'all that cash'. I don't play the lotto.
The cost of innovation in good times is risk. You're expending resources on a Gamble when you could be expending resources on what is known to work or on maximizing comfort, security and/or profit.
which is why his idea that war creates innovation that is somehow worth it is naive.
@@friendlyfire7861"worth it" is highly subjective. Advancement is valuable but more valuable than living unmolested, more valuable than avoiding chaos and destruction? I think innovation is a poor excuse for violence.
@@TRayTV That's what I mean 🙂
@@friendlyfire7861 lol, I was worried that the way I said it might seem contentious. It's just my weird way of saying "based."
Innovation can come in its own time. No need for famines, wars, genocides, recessions, and whatever to quicken the pace.
I agree, as it's said "Necessity is the mother of invention". Unfortunately often BAD events are the ones that highlight the "Necessity", therefor invention to follow. But if we were smarter, we could highlight the "Necessities" such as Better health, More justice, More equality ... on our own without the need to go "One step back, eg with with wars, pandemics...." and realize that we are already one step back and we need to "step forward"
Good talk. Good points. Just sad that Morgan Housel gets facts in his supporting examples SO VERY WRONG.
(1) Sears was NOT just a clothings store that sold some washers & dryers. It was essentially the Amazon of its day. The Sears catalogue of 1890 contained over 530 pages of items. Everything from cloths to furniture, musical instruments, firearms. You could buy kit-houses that were delivered so you could build the house. Amazing! - They were actually MORE encompassing than Walmart.
- They did NOT BUY Discover Card. They launched it themselves. (Though they did buy Dean Witter & Caldwell Banker).
- They were bought by KMART in 2004. So, it wasn't the fact that "it all went to their head" that killed them. The new owners failed to keep Sears alive.
- KMART also went from 2,486 stores globally in 1994 to 6 stores today.
- KMART failed to invest in computer technology to manage their supply chain. They lost the edge to Walmart, Target & internet sales.
- But primarily, their brand was a mess, they had a large data breach, were sued by Sega, Target and others..
So that analogy was a MESS....
(2) Henry Ford did NOT invent the car. (or "put all the pieces together").... Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot built the first steam-powered car in 1769. And Carl Benz (Mercedes Benz) put the first combustion engine car into FULL production in 1826. Henry Ford popularized the assembly line for manufacture. But it was actually invented by the meat-processing industry in the midwest. - People saw the car as a form of transportation NOT as a machine of war. It took 89 years for before it was eventually utilized in WWI for troop transport. Then the tank. (American had no mechanized force until the 1916 "Pursuit of Poncho Villa" when the first truck, a "GMC Model 15" was brought into service.
(3) The internet did NOT come about "30 yrs ago". The first commercial ISPs showed up in 1989. But I was on the internet (dialup BBSs) in high school 1983(?)- (I'm not a Boomer. I am Gen X). I was also given a Mac laptop when I worked for Adobe in 1995. They were HUGELY successful at the time for businesses (1991). But they were expensive. It wasn't that people didn't understand their value (AT ALL). It was that they were expensive for consumers. ($2,200, which was a LOT of money back then. So think of how much better we are doing economical now. Everyone has computers & laptops. And the price hasn't really gone up that much.
(4) The Donner Party was 86 people.... They DID NOT "meet a quack who promised them a shortcut". On June 27th they were warned by James Clyman NOT to take Hastings Pass because he thought it too difficult with wagons. The next morning, it was Reed to chose to IGNORE the advice of a friend (who had just travelled back through the pass).
They had derived their plan from a book entitled "The Emigrants' Guide to Oregon and California" by Major Lansford Hastings, a lawyer and explorer who had fought in the US Civil War. The book was written (based on his travels) as a guide to Oregon & California in order to entice settlers to settle (and colonize) northern California. The Donners themselves were comfortable but NOT wealthy. George Donner was a 62yr old farmer. James Reed however WAS wealthy. Though he was the only one. He is the one who essentially funded the trip.
It is likely that the lavish two story wagon Reed insisted on bringing along contributed to their failure to reach the pass when the season was more favorable. But Hastings previous experience on the journey had been without wagons. Many other used the Hastings Pass following the Springfield Party. (It takes you up to Truckee/Lake Tahoe. So it was NOT "bogus".
However, Hastings, who was a week ahead of the Donner/Reed party, had left a note along the trail telling them the path had become impossible & to wait for him to return. It took 5 days for them to find Hastings. Hastings mapped out an alternate route. But Reed chose to turn off the track & take the party through tangled wilderness. -- It killed them. Not a bogus route. Not a quack. Arrogance.
The takeaway of that story is -- (1) Don''t be arrogant. (2) Don't ignore the advice of those who have gone before you. (3) Don't shortcut the road to success using either 1 or 2.
Sorry. I like to read history. I don't like to revise it or misquote it (if I can help it). I jumped into this channel via the rather incredible Eric Weinstein interview. Truly wonderful. - I just expected more.
The guest was mediocre, not enlightening.
And he said Europe didn't see much innovation or advancement in wwii- that's insane, between the British and the Germans there were plenty advancements
41:52 read during lunch, it might take some enjoyment away from your lunch, but it is an easy double task
Regarding the topic of soldiers actually shooting at the enemy: Historically, there is ample evidence for it and that it happens without the soldier even being aware. And it was shown the success of armies is directly tied to how well soldiers actually shoot at their enemy.
Modern training is exactly as described--it removes or desensitizes the thought of shooting at a person. For example, using a human silhouette at the gun range instead of a bullseye makes you more used to shooting at a person. Boot camps also use live fire exercises (crawling under barb wire wile real bullets are flying over them) for troops to become accustomed to real combat conditions.
Much of military success is discipline & training more than tactics or even equipment.
That is so funny about walking through first class, when I travel and I walk through 1st class, I always say to the airline stewardess if I'm standing there are a few minutes ," well this is probably the longest I will ever be in 1st class or business class 😅😅" but I traveled to 13 countries in the last two years, so that's fine by me!! I have more important things to spend my money on 🌎🌎my last car was 24 years old when I had to get another car 🚗🚗. Loved the conversation, thank you!!
Absolutely loving this episode
This guy is so optimistic on things that are not true.
I think he asks some phenomenal questions, but also that he's read a little bit in a lot of areas and has some dunning Kruger going on in several. The example I've just come to is 2 chapters in where he's talking about climate change as a bad thing, using CO2 "ppi" (I'm assuming he meant ppm) climbing as his metric of it being bad, when I know he's had guests on who are SME in that area explaining to him why increased CO2 is actually a net good (at current levels, obviously we can't continue to expend fossil fuels at the rate we are or we will run out in short order).
I think Douglas Murray was correct when he identified Chris as being high in agreeableness: not necessarily with his guest, but the audience kickback to anti-narrative climate guests is far more unpleasant than if he concurs with the status quo.
I can believe the part about reading because Mr. Housel pronounced "menial" as someone who never heard it spoken aloud
😂
32:46 Absolutely spot on analysis! Activity for activity’s sake is the single largest and stupidest aspect of the current marketplace
Other than saying the pandemic accelerated “good” research on mRNA technology, the podcast was lively and informative. I’m always amused when Chris mentions a related book, research article, etc. to the guest expert and gets a “never heard of it” in return. 😀
Yeah that wasn't the upside of the pandemic, which was that many people came to understand how the world REALLY works.
Big Pharma exists to optimise returns for shareholders, not to optimise your health;
Pharma's influence on govt & media is deep & wide.
Chris. You’re on fire man. Keep goin
There is a lot of very misinformed examples in this episode e.g. invention of cars, suburbs etc.... Also, it should be noted that the upper and aristocratic classes in 1930's Germany almost wholesale did not like or want Hitler and the Nazi party in power. The system was mostly hijacked by the support from the youth and working classes. Many just ended up going along as to not end up in jails/camps and lose all that they had.
The most competetive advantages chapter was bang on. Kudos
Hard times create strong people.
Strong people create easy times.
Easy times create weak people.
Weak people create hard times.
As far as investing in the stock market, I've noticed that most people are worried about figuring out how much house in car they can afford. They're too busy looking the part rather than playing the part and playing the part takes time and sacrifice and knowing when to tell your ego no.
Great thought provoking discussion
Welfare prevents people from innovating to get themselves out of their situation because they are not adequately motivated.
Chris you are honestly becoming my favorite podcaster. There is something about the way you approach the guests that attracts me to listen to your conversations way more than other people these days. Keep up the amazing work!
this channel is really good , love it ! congrats!
I knew the odd fact about Mr. Gatling.
"Little do you know, Mr Gatling."
The machine gun instead of ending war... Made it dramatically more deadly.
Incentives segment is interesting in light of Israel’s current situation in Gaza and Morgan’s heritage.
He truly believes our economy is doing well right now. I’ve heard enough this guess is full of it.
The invention part of this reminded me a lot of the arguments for and against Bitcoin and Network Effect.
@33:57 open plan offices. Yeah, hate those too. I once went to work wearing big hearing protection devices. You know, the ones they use on a construction site. That'll shut them down. :-D
Morgan Housel is a a very smart guy, who has some really interesting thoughts. Psychology of Money changed my perception on so many things, and i absolutely love all his work! Chris, you are on a roll with the guests recently. Can't wait to listen to this!
The mRNA 'vaccine' analogy is a terrible example to use, to be fair.
Absolutely. But to be fair to the guest… that was really his only clunker. Pretty much everything else he said was spot on.
Listening to this playing video games 😭
I like this guy.
That said, I wake up afraid every day.
My whole world hangs by a thin thread.
I give 100% all the time, but I make very little headway. What's worse is if I ever get sick. Then the money disappears.
I don't have much to work with, so when it's gone, I have a big problem.
But I have a routine that works, and I am miraculously healthy, so I manage to get by.
But here's the thing, I feel like I am constantly treading water, moments from drowning, and I can't see the shore.
It is really becoming scary as I age. I begin to think, if I don't figure this out soon, I will be too tired to continue.
So yeah, I guess I'm Europe.
No time to innovate, we gotta put these fires out.
I wish I could get a little further up, so I don't live in fear of this all going away someday.
And now you know the whole point of my striving.
I must find a way to get me and mine just a little further up.
I simply must.
Wow. I know *exactly* what you mean.
Simpler explanation. Bad news gets more attention because by definition it requires action to resolve. Good news is lest interesting because no action is required. Pretty sure you would naturally evolve to be more focused on bad news, to be anything else could lead to your death.
So if like the desire and urge to become successful and earn lots of money is high then the company becomes successful in nowadays right?Then what pushes them to be set in a path of constant and uniform success? To make more money?,but we already got more
Great podcast! 👌🏼
The stock market often has V-shaped recoveries after massive downturns. That suggests a lot of people DO view it as an opportunity.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
Isn't it cool when a cliche is actually spot on?
@24:50’ish you speak about specialization and role-relevant mindsets. Interesting that you echo Adam Smith views on this while with the speed of change and the lessons on risk of silos from the Titanic to the apathy of large corporations you mentioned earlier argue for being more nimble than a collection of specialists can muster. Ok - I’ll keep listening to see how you resolve this tension.
@11:45 regarding good news always playing out over a long time and never happening quickly. Watching the lottery ball numbers being picked and finding out you had the winning ticket.
Hence the phrase, "winning the lottery." 😉
Perhaps, but if you look at the number of folks who won the jackpot and had it destroy their lives, it might not always be a good thing.
I seem to be the only person in the comment section who understands the vaccine analogy. Anyway, great podcast guys keep up the great work.
I learn more in this one video than my entire 4 year degree😂
I have never heard of this person before so all I can base a comment on is this interview.
That said , what planet does he live on? The part where he says that everyone has different life experience is true but I can't image where he comes from to think that "The world is doing well right now".
I had the idea from the title that he was a person who studies people and how they make choices. No , salesman or huckster maybe.
Loved Matt Damon in Minority Report
Positive evolution via chaos.
Sounds like the Shadows’ philosophy.
Thank you for all that you do, Chris
I think that if Steve Jobs still lived, every house would have a robot by now.
9:50 Oh God, now he's saying a command economy produces results. Yes, force can create a specific result--at an expense far in excess of what is achieved.
It's pretty interesting to me that Housel keeps talking about "success," but at no point does he define what that means to him, and in his usage. I'm pretty sure I get what he means, but it's also pretty clear that he has a fairly narrow definition of success (at least in this conversation), and may not be considering the possibility that there could be a vast sea of alternate possible definitions. It's especially amusing in that they explicitly discuss the need for new metrics AND so often point out these "successful" people are often miserable and have lives that he's not interested in having himself. To my ears, that doesn't sound like a very successful version of "success." Interesting conversation overall though (even if all of his anecdote and example details might be incorrect, misremembered, or otherwise way off)
This guy has great ideas, terrible information. The economy is not doing great... it was ww1 that started off with horses... Europe innovated MASSIVE amounts in the 40's.
He sounds like someone who likes sounding smart rather than being smart. Who also is able to speak on obvious things that are always relevant so it's always good to talk about them.
I love what you guys are doing. Keep it up! ❤
Was this filmed in 32K? Holy cow Chris! That's high def!
Damn, this was great.
1:10:00 yes it was Minority Report
I've got the hack for you boys, can't get into the mental framework to consider reading productive work? Simply call it studying. You are no longer carving out reading time from your spare leasure time. You make time for study.
Agree as humans we feel if they speak jargon they are smarter than us
Surely you can think of better titles then 10 or 12 laws of human psychology over and over again
Still listening but great fast start. This is gonna be good.
Don’t underestimate the power of culling the herd.
Love Morgan Housel! His books are phenomenal. I also bought The Graet Depression Diaries (can't remember the exact name off of the top of my head) after listening to him recommend it in a previous podcast
his books are really good for sure! The way he approaches some ideas is very interesting!
Law# 1
Psyche is real, as real as concrete.
Interesting but some historical inaccuracies. No mention of bad governance prolonging the depression making it a “great” depression
It’s c02 PPM.
To low c02 and the words stops as photosynthesis isn’t possible.
1:09:40
Me: oh my God it WAS MINORITY REPORT UGHHH
well if somebody is that polite to put the 12 Laws of human psychology I'll be very thankful don't want to delete 2 hours of my day thank you :)
@chriswilliamson when is your book coming
No only the best can make something simple at lest in IT
Lottery is an overnight happiness!
Same with for real housewives. “Oh. You’re not busy. Can you …. For me?” Uh no! I am busy.
How can truth be harsh? Truth is truth. It doesn’t carry a charge unless you give it one. What’s your spin?
I agree that the cultural changes that will be the residuals of COVID 19 will be significant. Adversity shows us to ourselves in ways that ease cannot.
We think best while walking. Thanks for this convo.
"Cannabilism is hard, but sometimes you just have to eat people."
Isaac Donner
Moses was first in history to record Pi near 1400 BC in the Wilderness Tabernacle blueprints.
330 Exodus 26:7
15 Exodus 26:9, 12
- 1 Exodus 26:13 makes π
314
Exodus 26:7-9, 12-13
The Tabernacle had 11 curtains, each 30 cubits long. So, all the curtains together were 11 x 30 = 330 cubits long.
One of these 11 curtains was to be folded in half. A curtain 30 cubits long folded in half, it becomes 15 cubits long. So, the adjusted length is 330 - 15 = 315 cubits.
The same folded curtain is supposed to have half a cubit of material hanging off at both ends of the Tabernacle. Since there are two ends, that adds up to 2 x 0.5 = 1 cubit. So the final adjusted length is 315 - 1 = 314 cubits.
3.14 = 314 circumstance/100 diameter ≈ π ratio, 100 cubit court per Exodus 27:9-18
.............................
π was rediscovered in 2015 by an engineer from Wisconsin. Geometry people will see this as circle-shaped. However, Josephus the Historian describes the traditional rectangle-shaped Tabernacle. These are two different shapes.
Exodus 26:13 makes Pi
1:30:31 I wasn't commenting for this, but I don't think Tiger Woods messes with his swing very much. I totally agree with your premise and agree that something should not be messed with and some things should.
The first thing that came to mind, and a lesson that I learned from a pro after doing it incorrectly for a very long time was joint compound on the seams and corners after installing drywall. It's so easy to keep working the mud and trying to make it smooth and close to what you envision the finish being like before it's set up and dry. Or, thinking that you can do an entire Corner both sides of the wall that makes it during any one application.
Watch a professional once. They put little tiny thin layers on random spots it seems and let it dry because it shrinks. It dries quickly they come back again and build it up and something different areas in less time even, but with many more applications sessions they get it perfect with very little sanding a tiny fraction of the worst kind of fine dust that exists, and needs to be cleaned up. It's basically the same since the corners, but they only touch one side of a corner at a time. You never get a nice Corner if you're using the application trowel or knife where the corner of it will dig into the other side that still fresh.
I was a series 7 license broker and financial planner for a decade so I know all about what Munger's point was, why Buffett would never leave Omaha for New York City, and how even the most disciplined investing mind can let that little emotional subconscious demon of disguised greed creep in, washing away disciplined gains.
That little Minority Report bit, with Tom Cruise and Matt Damon, was perfectly hilarious. I was talking like you can hear me saying you're right you're right it's Minority Report!
meeennn ... this is a good channel ...
Penicillin was discovered in 1928, not the 1940s because of the war effort.
"The long term investor doesn't get to ignore the short term volatility"
- This statement is incorrect. Anyone who has a 401(k) who diligently puts money in and NEVER CHECKS THE BALANCE is a long-term investor who perfectly ignores the short term.
Australia was heavily affected by the 2006 gfc my dude
And because the U.S government had a contract to supply Russia with corn, after the dust bowl they had to buy foreign grown corn to supply Russia at the original contract price so it ended up costing Americans a fortune
I read this guy's book, I would recommend
psychology of money has to be one of my favorite books!
Same
Always borrow money from a pessimist. They'll never expect it back.
I’m positive things will continue to be negative.
Too much Wisdom here.
Hold on ❤
Everything can be a science as long as an experiment always has the same result. Psychological experiments can never have the same result. Psyches are too different.
Love that mirror s of the experiments we did by living our lives
Every element needed for a smartphone existed when caveman walked earth . R. BUCKMINSTER FULLER
36:58 yeah im 14 and i figured this out when i was 8, thats why we all think old ppl are dumb af, maybe its bc yall are fr
"..millions of people died, but look what we got out of it"... yeah like 17 million more dead people. That´s the moment where I close the video.
Yeah, like people die every day. You mean like... people don't live forever? Like wow, man! Get real, man.