The surprising math behind basketball's least efficient shot
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2019
- The midrange jumper has been a dying art for years. With analytics influencing basketball strategy more and more, fewer midrange shots are being taken then ever. Is the midrange a bad shot? Should it be completely replaced by drives and 3-pointers? This video takes a detailed look at the math and metagame behind NBA shot distribution.
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Book: www.amazon.com/Thinking-Baske...
Podcast: www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-... (available on iTunes, Spotify, etc.)
Website: www.backpicks.com
Twitter: @elgee35
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
Stats courtesy:
www.pbpstats.com @bballport
www.basketball-reference.com
stats.nba.com
www.nbashotcharts.com
Player art by @CrumpledJumper
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Music: The Way Forward - กีฬา
“Most shooters can’t step back to the three point line from 18 feet...”
*James Harden enters stage left*
Just A Crab - and enters said stage with 1 or 2 more steps than are usually permitted lol
Bri g stop it
Enters stage left and takes 5 steps backwards to reach the area behind the arc
*fouled*
@@brig8013 he doesnt travel
Best basketball analysis channel on youtube by far
jfull - I second that statement
This and Bballbreakdown are my personal favorites
@@alfonsot.9439 They have different styles, both have their own upside. But analysis-wise, this channel is far superior with how much of research goes into, and how he makes not so easy to understand graphs, charts, numbers, stats so understandable.
At first I was skeptical but at this point it’s not even close
Heat check is also really good
Kawhi and Kd proved how Important the mid-range is in the playoffs where it matters!
Golden state just take the best shots whenever they can
Ando they are the two best players, so it must help to shoot mid range
Facts all the top great scorers on the perimeter of all time have a great mid range games.
jimmicrackhead12 Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade, Larry Bird, Dirk Nowitzki, Drazen Petrovic, etc.
Part of me is like: this is a really in depth analysis and I learned a lot. Other part of me says John Madden could have summed this up in something like: Usually the team that scores the most points wins.
This channel is just incapable of making a bad video. It's apparently impossible for you to make a video that doesn't both entertain and educate me. You are an A-1 content creator!
He goes great with steak👌
Yessss, I will always instantly watch and stop whatever I’m doing to watch these videos
Zach Belton same literally
Facts man underrated channel
BEst breakdowns. Perfect blend of analytics and eye test
Zach Belton what if your girlfriend is in labor ?
It’s weird because that’s what a lot of us grew up shooting, coach’s would teach us to step in on our pump fakes for mids
It’s probably because at lower levels there aren’t many great shooters, three point or otherwise. Also coaches at lower levels probably don’t have the same level of access to player statistics. Finally a large percentage of them might be still stuck in an old school mindset.
@@M0ebius Exactly. That being said... the math is seriously obvious and I don't know why its taken this long for people to realise. An NBA player shoots about 50% on a good day from MID range, that means you only need to shoot 33% to have equivalent value on a 3. Its not Rocket science, but if you're not used to thinking quantitatively then you just look and go "oh man, the ball isn't going in the basket as much, we're having so many lost possessions"
Cyrusislikeawsome Things that are supposedly obvious in hindsight often isn’t easily implemented in reality. You need to first acquire a critical mass of similar thinkers, then to have representatives in positions of power, who then deliver proven results, before the overall population will accept it as an “obvious” truth. Until then the establishment with vested interests will continue to beatdown and suppress the new school philosophy, just like how the eye-test centric scouts continued to derisively dismiss analytics, until the impossible became inevitable. It’s not just with basketball, but in all walks of life from science to politics to economics.
@@M0ebius if you ever fancy a bit of casual philosophy of science reading that is 😂
@@M0ebius It's also because the escape dribble to the side is a relatively recent invention. Nobody thought to do that 10-15 years ago.
A good mid-range game will never go out of style, the more weapons you have the more the opposing team has to guess and the more poisons it has to pick. It makes it easier for a team to guard another team that only shoots 3s and layups as they never have to worry about the mid-range. Now if you add the mid-range into the equation, it's another puzzle to solve. Mid-range is not the most efficient shot and you probably don't want the mid-range to be 90% of your offense. But at the same time if a guy is shooting 50% from mid range it's not really a very good trade-off and the opposing team has to guard that. Mid range can only help augment the most efficient shots in the league which are 3s and layups if you introduce a healthy dose of it.
Case and point look at Kawhi and Durant, two guys who are able to consistently dominate in the playoffs and don't really see a dropoff in performance from the regular season. That mid range shot is such a deadly weapon. An open shot from a good shooter is always going to be an efficient shot no matter from which part of the floor and good shooters should always take these. Young kids should take notes from Kawhi and Durant. A mid-range game on top of your other skills can make you unstoppable. Hell, alot of people think Curry is just all about jacking threes but if you watch him play he really has an incredible and accurate mid-range floater that he uses from time to time. Harden is an amazing player too but I don't think he'll ever win a championship with his iso-heavy and "Morey-Ball" style. Yes he takes predominantly the most efficient shots in the game but they are tough shots like his iso step back threes. He'll drive it into the heart of the defense hoping to get a foul. But in the playoffs fouls are called less, defenses tighten, these can quickly become the reason why you lose a game. A tightly contested 3 probably isn't more efficient than an open mid-range 2.
Great post couldn’t have said it better than this!
Proud Midranger here🏀☝️
Thanks, the analysis details were overwhelming me for strategy ideas. Would you say the best shot is about contestedness or pressuredness? Sometimes when there might be a bit space, but i feel pressure to take a 3, i wonder if midrange can be alot less pressure, and good variety for me to feel. For 3 I can feel pressure to make it, midrange i dont imagine nearly as much. Idk, is that because the 3 is hyped, or repeating a shot consecutively can feel way more hard?
Is it less efficient? Yes. Can it still be very valuable if undervalued and underdefended? Also yes. The thing that made moneyball successfully was building around an undervalued skill set (getting on base) rather than focusing on traditional metrics (hits, HRs and RBI). Creating a team built around undervalued assets is the way you build a multi-year dynasty. Both the Warriors and the Seahawks did this.
ESPN should give this guy a show.
It may leave all the other analysts jobless but I think we can all agree that that's ok:)
Man, anything that means I dont have to hear Ryan Hollins speak again is good by me.
@@Stavrdim lol
No way, they'd turn his content into lowest common denominator bullshit within a week. ESPN actually employs a lot of talented people, but it wastes their talents dumbing them down constantly.
He's too smart and his analysis is good for ESPN. He needs to yell and be more incoherent to make it on that network!
Gotta keep Stephen A. And Max
McCollum killed the Nuggets in the elimination game with the mid-range. Bcuz Jokić couldn't really step up and as you say it opened up his whole game.
Nikola Todorovic that isnt true. Whole team beside Jokic was plain afwul
Aleksandar Kovacevic it was very true and CJs mid range ability was why they won the series with Lillard struggling. CJs whole game based off his ability to create jumpshots from anywhere and he collapsed defenses in doing so and with a slower big forced into pick and rolls CJ could exploit it.
Tmac TheGoat its true that CJ was best Portland player, but i still think its kind a unfair to put blame on a player who scored 35 points in game 7 for a loss, especially when he created so many open looks for Jamal Murray who was missed most of them
Tmac TheGoat Jamal Murray and Millsap had combined 21% percent shooting from 31 attempts. Even with that terrible stat line Denver lost only by 4 points. If they only had 33% percet for the field it would be easy victory for Denver.
There is also question why Lillard didnt exploit Jokic defence in the same manner. Game 7 showed that giving him max will backfire on Portland ( he will become next John Wall in my opinion)
@@aleksandarkovacevic7138 Nobody is blaming Jokić nobody could stop CJ. Jokić hit THE ONLY 2 3's the Nuggets scored the whole game he's not a reason for their loss it just is what it is.
5:50 lol imagine if the nba had complete control of game footage and content creators could only use courtroom renditions.
I think he just deep fried the clip like Kawhi's Obama White House pic tweet lmao
Can’t talk, busy bricking a 22 footer.
Melo , is that you?
Calvin Bacu i thought it was Jason Tatum
Moreyball is great for 82 game season.
But to win a championship? You need to hit inefficient shots.
And this has become more and more true over time. The difference between regular season and post season these days is night and day
You sound exactly like Barkley when he said jump shooting teams can never win a championship
Here's a fucked up way to put it: 3s layups and dunks will get you in the playoffs. Post ups, drives and midrange brings the championship home!
@@deeway5964 it's not fucked up way. It's true. Off tempo is drastically decrease in playoffs games. Post up and mid-range usually is the best option for the clutch moment where defense is intensively eliminating obvious and easy option like 3s, layup.
Su Te Zhao ooooh I say it like that because you have a group of folks trying to discourage people from those options it's people who probably never played the game.
How is your channel at 100k and Korzemba is at a million, you deserve more subs
Korzemba is more for mainstream fans whilst Thinking Basketball is more for the hardcore fans.
"Meet Lonzo Ball: Steph Curry with a 40 inch vertical"
VS
"Is the mid range shot dead?"
@@rjpele Also Korzemba was on youtube for years whereas Thinking Basketball is still a young channel
The channel is less than a year old. Give it time
One is for sensationalizing idiots and baseless narratives. One is for people that actually think about how basketball works.
This channel and bball breakdown are by far the most knowledgeable basketball channels on this platform.
the mid range game got me overseas 🤷🏽♂️ take the open shot if you have it
Facts
Kevlar El good shit brother
Your midrange game is nice and cool like the other side of pillow. Just watched your highlights bro, not bad.
@@briandavis2198 much appreciated bro
Exactly !!
KD has been keeping it alive. Best midrange since Dirk
gonna be Dirk 2.0 after his Achilles injury I think
@@burner1303 or he could come back better, Dominique Wilkins style
@@iranlassninja7062 I hope so, he'll be great either way
Don't worry, the revival stage of the mid-range is already taking place. Jokic, JT, Jaylen Brown, Murray, Spider Mitchell, Bam bringing it back
The thing with KD is that he can literally hit shots from anywhere, over almost anyone.
You can't just clog the lane, because his 3pt shooting is decent. You can't just focus on the 3pt-line, because KD is deadly going to the rim. But if you can somehow prevent both of those, he'll still just pull up and knock one down anyway.
Human cheat code.
Best bball vids on youtube, explains things so everyone can understand voice is smooth and soothing and everything about the video pulls you in. Keep up the great work
Loved the graphics! Awesome video, love learning from you
The under valued gravity of DeRozan's playmaking ability. Spurs were able to make smooth 3 point plays due to DeRozan sucking in the perimeter defense while defense at the paint are occupied from guarding Aldridge
Congrats on 100k!
Been here since 30k and you've been my favorite basketball channel ever since ❤
FINALLY
i’ve been reading your book nonstop waiting for a video 😭😭
Kawhi is the mid range god! Aldridge and DeRozan make a living off of it too.
Edit: KD is the mid range god. 55% from there. I spoke too soon as a Kawhi fan
Chandasouk KD is the best mid range shooter ever alongside Kobe n MJ
@Randomdude holy shit. Just checked his attempts and percentage for last season. 55% and over 400 attempts. God indeed. I thought most of his buckets would be on the block, restricted area, or 3.
What abt Westbrook tho...
:)
@@Chandasouk 55% yes that's insane for midrange. But the midrange needs to be paired with gravity, to draw defenders away from paint or 3 point line. For reference, 55% from midrange 2 is still only about 37% from 3. Curry shoots 45% from 3 on high volume (minus heave attempts), which is equivalent to shooting 67.5% from midrange 2. The 3 point shot also creates more spacing for teammates, this is why Shaun Livingston was a liability on offense for the Warriors because despite being a decent midrange shooters, he killed the space because defenders know that's all he can shoot.
@@d-foxthegoat1922 He shot 32% last season from midrange lmao. Just because he takes a lot of midrange shots doesn't mean he's good at them. He's actually the worst pull up midrange shooter in the league amongst volume midrange shooters..
Incredible clip. Wonderful presentation. Great stuff Coach
I think a great follow up to this video would be discussing which positions on a team are most valuable to creating added value from the paint and 3 off of midrange metagame, and what an example team could be implementing that strategy to its full potential
It's not dead for players who can shoot above average from there.
be good, be above average!
True but you probably won't ever win anything if you're shooting more midrangers than 3s unless you're defense is awesome. Demar Derozan is a midrange god but he'll never be in the top tier of players because his game is pretty much limited to that.
The problem is not many guys laern to shoot from there anymore
It is just much less efficient than 3s or layups with the similar coverage
@@munkh-erdenebaasanbyamba4253 true thats why if you want to shoot midranges effectively you need good shot iq and selction
Good to see you back with some quality content. Keep it up, your the best at talking basketball I've ever seen.
Love you Channel bro, keep doing what you're doing ❤
This was a fantastic breakdown. Nice work!
I appreciate you actually looking deeper into the numbers and explaining why the mid-range is a big part of most great offenses. Basketball isn't played in a vacuum and while I think prioritizing threes and layups is important it's not the be all end all, and the Warriors and Spurs showcased that last year
Love your videos man, can't wait for next season!
Best basketball info on TH-cam, keep up the great work!
These videos are so good. Really love the content🔥🔥
This is brilliant analysis - you've earned a subscriber!
Great video, really interesting insight about the meta value of midrange shots. The notion of feedback loops (e.g. good defense leads to good offense) isn't necessarily new, but I don't think it's been widely applied to how becoming efficient at less-desirable shots generates more open more-desirable shots, and vice versa. These sorts of tied relationships are interesting to think about, especially as defenses are learning how better to adapt to 3-pt shooting teams.
I love a nice mid range shot, like the Klaw and KDs shots in the mid range really show who can create their own shot and knock them down
I have been waiting for this video since the last video came out, got your book in the meantime, keep up the great work Ben.
Hi Ben. Your videos are always amazing and educational beyond anything I’ve seen so far in sports media. Keep it up, because the one thing you do that is undeniable is raise the discussion to better and better detail. People who really care about sports and watch your videos probably now think more about footage, shot charts, team defense, and different stats than ever before when they reach a conclusion or even want to try and support quick, assumption-filled arguments they’ve had before! I know I have!
Great video as usual Ben, you'll be at 1 mil in no time
I did lol
Randomdude you don’t even have to watch the video to know this guy will upload a perfect video
Ben? Haha
Mid range is important in the playoffs by the intense perimeter defense and clogged paint, making the offense step in to take off the pressure inside an outside l.
Amazing insights. Thank you
Easily top 10 informative channels on TH-cam. Top 2 for sports and it’s not 2. Keep doin good work my man
🙏
The thing is, most players really can’t shoot the midrange shot. There are specific circumstances when it is the best shot, but clearly most players can’t recognize it or shoot it anyway.
*cough* Andrew Wiggins *cough*
You can't defend all three levels at a high level against a player with a 3pt shot and knows how to use picks well. If you commit to stopping the mid range then you give that offensive player room to step back and hit a 3 pointer or get to the rim. KD, Curry and D'Angelo Russell shot the mid range well for a reason. Give it up or give up an easy 3 pointer to a high percentage shooter
During the regular season, why stop in the middle when 2 feet behind your is an extra point and a step in front is a much more efficient shot with the same points
If your in the NBA you can shoot an efficient mid-range.
I always thought of midranges as something to fall back on, since 3p-line and the rim are somewhat easy to shut out. Nice to know there's some more facilitative effects as well
That's a good way to think of it, it's like a counter to a counter
i actually love your vids so much
My favorite basketball channel talking about my favorite basketball team? Yes please!
This is the best basketball channel on TH-cam all of your content is absolutely stellar. Have watched every video, love the podcast and if you guys haven't read it, the book he wrote Is fantastic and I highly recommend it.
The fact that the first chapter addresses the fallacies of scoring efficiency between player and his team is eye opening for why players like wilt were so good because of the shots the decided to take despite having a high attempts per possession.
Thank you so much for putting the time and effort into making such awesome content. This will be the first patreon I will actually support keep up the fantastic work and I expect to see you grow in popularity since you totally deserve it.
The background music is so soothing. Thank you.
I FUCKING LOVE YOUR VIDEOS AND THE AMOUNT OF WORK YOU PUT INTO THEM. Easily one of my favorite youtubers . you deserve more attention bro
This is such good quality content, I feel bad for not subscribing earlier.
Super stars and stars still need to be able to create in the midrange area, especially come play off time. Look at KD, Kawhi, Kyrie, LeBron, Curry, etc.
Lebron not on that level , midrange wise
@@curtiszyr No, but he's around average usually. Good enough to keep the defense honest.
Love this channel ❤️ great analysis I’ve noticed how teams like the Warriors have been taking more mid range shots recently with Klays post ups, Curry’s pull ups off screens and KDs isos as well as the Spurs with LA, Gay and now Derozan. You can definitely be a successful team in the NBA while shooting an abundance of mid range shots. We saw how the Rockets died by the three 2 years ago
"The mid-range shot is not dead" says the finals MVP Kawhi
"You are right, you lucky I got hurt" says prior MVP and midrange points leader KD
BootCampChamp cringe
I've generally been viewing the midrange shot as a good last option assuming you can make it. With good spacing, most defenses would rather give you the midrange than the 3 because its a less efficient shot. But if you can make it at a high rate they'll have to defend it regardless which can open up the 3pt shot for you. It's just not the go-to shot anymore. It's not about the points the shot itself makes but about the shots it will create in the future.
Outstanding Quality you blew up fast
Your content is insightful...frankly head and shoulders above the next...If I were to start a channel I'd copy you
That's always been my issue with the influx of data in the NBA. Yes, it can tell you over an 82 game season that shooting a plethora of threes and getting to the line will put you in the top 3 teams.
But when you are in a smaller sample size of a 7 game series with back and forth adjustments from the opposition, your data will be unreliable. Nuances are king in the playoffs.
Perfectly stated.
Well, the playoffs and regular season are two different things. The playoffs is a test: "OK, you can win sixty games over six months against teams with injuries, without adequate time to prepare; can you win against one opponent four times in seven games, where rest is the same for both teams? Where both coaching staffs can really sink their teeth into the opposition?"
But winning more games than your opponent correlates pretty strongly with playoff success, so people that dismiss the regular season don't really know what they are talking about.
Exactly why moreyball has had limited success in playoffs
As someone who shoots best in the mid range and was starting to think in a Moreyball way, I'm glad to know that I still have utility inside the paint in a way I previously didn't consider. I'll be sure to utilize the effect of forcing the defense to space in different ways to get my lads and myself some more buckets!
Love the new little animations and graphics
Moreyball is "science laboratory basketball" that looks good in a vacuum, not necessarily in real-life/real-game situations. Smart mid-range shots by solid shooters can still devastate a defense, or at least keep it honest and on its toes, thereby leading to great looks at the rim or open three-point shots.
Dude this is legitimately THE best basketball channel
This guy is really good. Well elaborated details
Amazing video!
Finally ur back I missed this channel
I think a video about the fundamentals of the pick and roll and its statistical impact over the floor would be super interesting. In general, deep dives into basketball basics would be swag.
Nice!!!! been waiting a month for this! Are you making other videos on a different channel i should know about?
Now, this is phenomenal video.
Most Clutch GOATS were mid range masters.
Nice video mate. Subscribed for sure !!!
Great Breakdown
great video!!!
Almost all of the top players have good mid-range games. LeBron, KD, Kawhi, DeRozan, McCollum, Dame, etc. Only role players are advised not to operate in the mid-range due to spacing reasons. But mid range never disappeared, spacing just became more of a priority.
I haven't seen the video yet and I know it's amazing
Love your channel!! Houston with Russ and Bucks with Giannis maybe should pay attention to this concept.
Your channel is amazing. I love how you took statistics to the next level and made it fun. If you had to, how would you implement machine learning algorithms to your data?
This channel needs more subscribers
So what you're saying is Pop and Kerr knows more than D'antoni?
Yeah, that checks out.
This was the best video I've seen re: midrange
Hey Ben, I know you cover it in thinking basketball but I think a video on global offence that's less indepth than the book would be very controversial and would get so many clicks again great vid, and like u mentioned in the vid, a video on why Wilt shouldn't have shot all those shots would blow the world's mind
Great video, i missed the content
Fantastic video
Great content
TJ Warren is an underrated master of the mid-range.
2:57 almost drop my phone laughing with that face 😂
You reasoning reminds of why, in poker, you have to lose a bluff hand from time time.
Why?? Simple, so your opponents know you bluff. So, when you have a good hand, they think you are bluffing when you raise a few times and fill the pot.
By making the opponent guard the WHOLE floor, you get more open threes and layup possibilities.
It's obvious the way you explain it.
Thanks.
I think the addition of a mid range shot turns a star into a superstar eg Kawhi KD McCollum
This analysis should heavily include how the type of attempted shots impacts the amount of off/def rebounds for either team and fast break attacks opportunities, e.g.
Making 6/20 3-pointers gives you 18 points,
making 9/20 2-pointers gives you 18 points as well, but the number of rebounds is different (14 vs 11). Most rebounds go to the defending team, so in that respect it's better to produce fewer missed shots regardless of how much they pay. But then, 3-pointers produce longer rebounds giving more opportunity for grabbing an offensive rebound and another attempt at a shot. So this is were the complexity lies.
Great points.
Exactly this is why assist and rebounds have been rising. It would be an interesting statistic to find out the percentage of recovery on missed 3s; and FG3% on second opportunities on offensive rebounds or vice-versa the teams that limit such opportunities.
Was wondering if you could make an analysis of Jaylen Brown’s game and what his ceiling is. Very interesting situation up there in Boston.
If you're REALLY good at midrange it's fine. I remember reading an article on Giannis's absurd success on dunks and short range shots and how it totally flipped the narrative of 3s being more efficient than 2s. It's not the same as midrangers but the concept remains. Basically, the idea that shooting more 3s and making them at say 35% is more efficient than shooting more 2s and making them at say 50% is only true if those are the percentages but when you start shooting 70%+ (which is i think around what Giannis was doing) then you obviously take those 2s instead. If you can make midrangers at a rate that eliminates the gap in efficiency between 2s and 3s then i think that's where it's a good shot. Problem is not everyone is Giannis and basically no one except guys like KD are good enough to shoot midrangers that efficiently, at which point you'd be better of having them shoot 3s instead since they're such good shooters.
Great vid
It would be interesting to see the rate of fouls drawn from mid range shots too. I feel like it might be higher than three point shots based on the fact that they usually come off the dribble whereas a lot of threes are just catch and shoot
I'm late as hell to this channel, but SO glad I found it! #NewSubscriber
Finally good, thinking, video.
You need a podcast my man. I’d listen every day
He's got one with the same name, "Thinking Basketball." I've listened to a few on Spotify
Love this content
Holy this is SOOO GOOD
YOURE BACK YESSSSS
Can you do devin booker anaylsis? Great video
Awesome video Ben, I’m a huge fan of your content and analysis. As an Australian, I’m a big fan of Ben Simmons. Is this then, the data-driven reason why he HAS to work on his jump shot???
I think the player specific videos are cool, but I much prefer the overall basketball theory videos like this so that I can think about them when improving my own game.
Great video. I think your graphics need to have bigger text. Currently the texts are very hard to see, even on tv
please make a video about how harden and westbrook duo would work together in Houston system.
💩