As many of you noticed, I did forget Jokic on the first graph! I was playing with his projected numbers and forgot to include his actual 2019-2023 numbers (+8 on, +13 on/off). Including 2024, he'd jump to +9 on, +17 on/off, passing LeBron for #2.
Hey there...do you have access to the team's points per possession for with Luka and without? I think that would add a bit of info for the offensive end at least. (Well we can look at PPP with and without for defense, as well.) I'd be interested to see your take on those stats and if they affect the narrative you are so great at sussing out. Edit: Oh....and same thing for playoffs. Btw what would you professional statheads call this stat....PPPW&W?
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂. EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 . In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂. EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 . In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
At the end of the day though, his strength with the ball in his hands is what makes him one of the best playoff performers. When all the little things like slashing and cutting to open space are locked down he might be the best at creating offense out of nothing. (Jokic is the best due to his height advantage but as a perimeter oriented player it’s Luka)
Bro has won a singular playoff series ever technically 2 but he was hurt for the majority of the jazz series so idk how u can say he’s one of the best playoff performers?
Team around him has never been as talented as this year, Porzingis was injured in the Clippers series. I watched him torch Kawhi and PG like they were average defenders in the playoffs, Clippers were a much more talented team so they won in the end.@@christianwaters3437
@@christianwaters3437because he was much better in the play offs than in the regular season. Carried a mediocre team who’s 2nd player was a very different Brunson. He avgs the second most play off points and is going against better teams and defenders than #1 did
@@deadlylightningspirit4295 brunson wasn't that different, the next year he was a killer on the knicks. Also, brunson cleaned out the Jazz in that series. Luka's gotta change his game if he wants to win titles. Also, For the Jokic comparison, look at Jokic's usage rating compared to luka's. Jokic plays in the flow of the offense while luka needs the ball every sec to make something happen. totally different. Luka just wants to put on a show while Jokic wants to win
@@blottolotto7648 ok actually take a second to think the difference between jokic and Luka and their teams. Lukas usage rate is gonna be higher either way (it has gone down since kyrie got back and is still inflated due to injuries.) Luka and kyrie are the only players who can dribble,play make,and create shots consistently. Lukas gonna have the ball if the don’t want to turn it over a ton
This was really eye opening on how much off ball play can impact games. Though jokic and luka have similar strengths like scoring and passing, jokic's off ball play elevates him to another level.
@@deadlylightningspirit4295Luka does primarily play with starters. It’s just harder to gauge because there has been so many lineup changes due to injury, which shouldn’t drastically impact on/off numbers
@@Аянп-н5лI think the point he was making is more so that Jokic pretty much ONLY plays with starters and those starters for the most part have been healthy this season too, the Mavs only have one starting lineup with over 200 minutes played this season and the nuggets starting lineup has played 1500 this season, Jokic is extremely impactful but again on/off and +/- do not tell the full story, Mavs post trade line sample is a much more telling story of what Luka can do with a consistent lineup and not playing with g league players for 1/3 of the season
@@chugcanthoop Jokic has been stuffing the +/- box for four seasons. Two of those four seasons his entire starting squad wouldn't have even come off the bench for most other teams in the NBA. Also, Jokic has been playing with his bench since December this year. Malone changed the rotations so that Jokic plays out the entire 1st quarter, with 2 starters subbing out at about 6 mins, and 2 more at 3 mins. Jokic plays the entire last 3 mins of the 1st with 4 bench players for the past 30 games.
@@JakeStine no doubt, but jokic being 100th percentile in 5 major box +/- stats is not something he’s done the past 3 seasons that increase happened at the end of last season-this season which is what I was basing it off of, it wasn’t a dig at Jokic, just this season Jokic hasn’t played over 100 minutes with multiple g league guys while Luka has and that’s more of the point I was trying to make.
Luka's case is particularly interesting. Dallas has not been a great team by any means the last couple of years, not even with Luka on the floor, but he is one of (if not the) most clear contributor to wins of the team. This season Dallas is 3-6 when he's off, and 42-24 with him on (which would almost tie Dallas with the top 3 teams on the west, by win percentage)
It’s worth noting that in those games he’s missed, he’s often sitting back to backs by mandate of the team. Many of those games are ones in which they’re entering as big underdogs in second night of road back to back ie “scheduled loss” type of games. He hasn’t suffered a significant injury in his career, it’s usually maintenance style rest days.
@@eye4impactnba572Check your facts before you yap. He missed MEM, HOU, POR, NOP x 2, MIN x 2 NYK once and OKC once. Of those, you could _at most_ call the two MIN games scheduled losses. Especially because they beat NY and the Pels, and competed against OKC after Luka left the prior game early hobbled.
@@eye4impactnba572 agreed, no major injuries, luckily. However, he's been dealing with nagging injuries (ankles and knees, primarily) that did prevented him from playing. Interestingly enough, he's been having these problems since practically the begining of the season, when Kyrie went down and he had a stretch of games averaging about 40/42 minutes per game. Still, he played through it more times than not. Luka's tough. If he isn't wearing down to his limit, he's not missing games.
He also has the 3rd most injured team this season so they got way behind compared to now. They are 11-1 when luka plays in their last 12 and the only game they lost was against the warriors, plus that wasn’t his fault or Irving’s. Proof: bench points 13. Golden states 39.
You missed the largest reason, although you nearly got there once. It’s largely about rotations. Look at Jokic. He plays 80% of his minutes with 3 starters on the floor. Doncic players roughly half his minutes with 3 starters off the floor. On/off is largely dependent upon team rotations - who are you surrounding your star with? If multiple starters and a ball dominant guard like Kyrie or Brunson is out there when he’s on the bench, then you shouldn’t expect eye popping on/off, particularly if when he’s on the court he is often with 3 bench players. It skews the on/off. He has the 2nd highest Player Impact Estimate, but a mediocre on/off. He’s 2nd or 3rd in nearly ever advanced efficiency metric you can think of, but on/off doesn’t back it up. The answer you are looking for is simple: rotations.
@@Tophergr8facts😭The point guard when Luka is off is Kyrie while when Jokic is off it’s either no center or 35 year old Deandre Jordan💀. This man just wants to push his narratives like Skip and SAS do
Lol a month later, Luka leads the mavs to the playoffs. But, yeah people do this all the time with statistics. It's interesting to explore, but it doesn't really mean or tell us much.
@@A7JJ77 +/- is a terrible stat when the player that it's being applied to isn't a good defender or good offensive player (Irving, Doncic, Gobert, Harden, etc.) In Luka's case his impact is weak because he's a 1-dimensional player lacking defense.
Jokic is like the anti-Luka in terms of on/off numbers. His regular season numbers are off the charts but his playoff numbers are lackluster despite the eye test saying he is an awesome playoff performer.
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂. EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 . In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
this is wrong on so many levels... 1. plus minus stats only apply when you're on the court...so if your team loses by 20 you're not necessarily at -20 2. if a player had 20/20 fg and 0 turnovers...i highly doubt your team loses by 20 @@onlyfacts3178
@@onlyfacts3178 That's true... which is why it's stretched over the last 5 years, which means statistical outliers are less relevant. Statistics get more accurate as there is more data. 5 years of data is a loooot of data.
Usually, role player have great +/- when the team has a high floor increasing the overall ceiling of what a team can achieve. Think the Nuggets with and without Gordon or KCP for a recent example, or how bad the Lakers became when they traded away their good role players for a third star. Stars on the other hand tend to have diminishing returns when the team has already enough star power: adding a third star usually doesn't add as much value as adding a second for example (any big 3 had at least one star massively decrease their production). Steph is the greatest outlier to this rule I've ever seen: put Steph on a mediocre team, and he will improve it, but put him on a very good one and they'll become unstoppable. As you clearly can see in the that graph. Truly one of kind.
@@fringe_minority yea but that small sample size from last 15 games says he got rly good rly quick but who knows maybe Gafford showing luka some def , we know luka wants to be good at def so ... also people say luka and kye are bad defenders but i seen them jump for loose balls like they rodman
Mavs need to build a team that actually fits Lukas playstyle. Just look at their performance after the trade deadline. They added defence and athleticism which was perfect for Luka. Also Kyrie is in my opinion one of the best partners for him since Kyrie can play off ball and lead the offence if Luka isn’t on the court. Luka still has things to work on like his off ball or his defence. He improved as a defensive player tho. At the end the plus minus stat is misleading anyways and shouldn’t be that important as a tool to determine a players value to his team. Remember guys you may don’t like harden but he was on pace to win it all if the best team ever didn’t exist
His catch and shoot attempts went up over twice the amount from last season and the percentages still went up by 5%. The mavs are top ten in fast break points and they average more passes per possession than last year. Luka can be great at anything. And his off ball play is severely slept on... His defense? 7th in steals and top 15 in deflections. As an average perimeter defender per advanced statistics. But he really shines in post defense. I watched him big boy domantas "elbow to the throat" saboner at least 5 times recently. The eye test says he is the best player in the league. That's all. It's his party.
@@fringe_minority absolutely! I mean they won against top teams despite their bad shooting nights and if the 3s are falling they can beat anybody. They need a Jeremy grant type of player and another consistent offensive threat from the bench
@@fringe_minority yeah. Hardaway, Kleber and Powell have been regressing/stagnating the last few years. If they can mash Josh Green as a 3 & D guy into the new crew post trade deadline the Mavs have the ability to beat just about any team in the league. We definitely saw a big dropoff last game with lively out in terms of center play. The warriors playing small ball with green and lively out who are probably two of the best quick defenders the Mavs have def hurt them in that game.
There's something really dubious about the plus-minus stat. To render the plus-minus stat truly significant, we would need some method by which to quantify the extent to which the composition of the remaining team changes, such as through substitutions, whenever the player being analyzed exits the court. Essentially, if the composition of the team changes significantly whenever the player exits the court, it becomes challenging to accurately determine the player's impact. For example, if the entire team more or less gets swapped out every time the player we are are analyzing leaves the court (say by bringing out the entire bench), then the plus-minus statistic loses its meaningfulness completely because now the player leaving is tantamount to just assessing another team altogether! So plus-minus has to be tempered by a measurement of how constant the rest of the team you're looking at even is.
Yeah but over 5 years you would assume that such hyper specific irregularities would average out. What you're suggesting is true for any metric. For example for ppg if the 2nd best player is injured, the ppg would increase without player quality increasing. I think plus minus in combination with on-off is a much more holistic stat than most other stats, but ofc it is not perfect and should not be used in isolation
RAPM adjusts for this by accounting for who was on the court. If Malik Beasley plays all his minutes with Giannis, he will have a great on/off split. However, if you look at Beasley minutes without Giannis, the Bucks probably played worse than in comparison to Giannis minutes without Beasley. From this you can deduce that Giannis probably deserves more of the credit for when they share the court and play well. This is an incredibly noisy stat, but over large sample sizes like multiple seasons, it should be more reliable. If you look at 3-year RAPM, Luka is well outside the top 50 and is situated in between… Cam Johnson and Malik Monk. The top two players unsurprisingly are Embiid and Jokic. This is incredible, as it means that if the NBA just stopped recording statistics altogether, I could still tell that Embiid and Jokic are the two best players. If you look at other similar one number impact metrics (RPM, EPM) they will have Luka rated very highly, but this is because they generally use the box score numbers as a prior, which “nudges” the numbers towards what the creators believe should be correct. For example, even if the Bucks actually played better in Beasley and non-Giannis minutes than in Giannis and non-Beasley minutes, these models will chalk it up to noise and still give most of the credit to Giannis, under the assumption that any player averaging 30 and 10 is usually pretty good. This helps stabilize the numbers over a small sample size towards reasonable estimates, and these models generally perform a lot better than basic RAPM. However, it introduces a lot of bias when picking the prior. RAPM in its purest form is unbiased. Whether this means Luka’s box score metrics are overrated, or whether it is due to noise is impossible to tell. However, over such large sample sizes I do think such a disparity is quite alarming. Of note, James Harden’s 2018-21 stretch still had him in the top 10 in the NBA in RAPM, playing a very similar style alongside other ball dominant stars (Paul, Westbrook). For all of Luka’s greatness, I don’t think he’s yet to approach the heights Harden did, who was much more efficient than Luka.
@@Grind2Excellence Won a ring with fool's gold...Jokic is fine. We've seen him with bad teammates and he was still an impact monster. If anything, it is that Dallas/Doncic is hampered by poor roster construction. Doncic would play with the starters more if his best teammates were wings/centers instead of ballhandling guards.
It's not that confusing if you watch the team, it's roster construction. He's had the absolute worst Center in the league starting for years, now compare that to his numbers now with Gafford/Lively rotation. It was a team full of guys like DFS who were just spot up shooters, and surprise, they couldn't create offense or shots without Luka. Luka masked a lot of roster deficiencies
Literally everything you just said supports a big on off plus minus differential for someone carrying the team so hard like Luka has, which was NOT the case here. A team that can't create shots without Luka should be much worse without him, which was NOT the case from the stats. Now that he has more competent teammates, the on off differential should be less, but it's the opposite. Not really sure you understand the metrics being assessed in the video.
As someone who has watched a lot of Mavs games this year, I do actually think the Mavs/Luka need to run more plays and have more off ball motion in order to really maximize the offense. There’s too much ISO ball, and while sure it’s impressive when Lika single-handedly creates 2 points on an ISO, u can get those same 2 points off of just having more motion in the offense. I mostly blame Jason Kidd (Mavs Coach) for this because he lets Luka and Kyrie play ISO so much instead of making them run more plays and be involved in off-ball actions. I agree that Luka could be significantly more effective if her was moving off ball while Kyrie had the ball and vice versa, but both players love going ISO
@@IMGhost589 Is influenced a lot by teammates and Who you play against... as an example if "said player" misses 4 games but all are against minessota, Boston and other top teams he'll have Better On/off Numbers than someone that sit out 4 games against Detroit and Washington where his team might even have won those games.... box +/- Is a flawed stat but can give some insight sometimes
@advancedapathy1531 last year team construction was out this worldly bad ... no defense all offence (if even that cof cof dwight Powell starting cof cof). They had a decent team in his second and 3rd season but porzingis couldnt stay on the floor and then when he came back wasn't the same efficiency wise and since he was a dive he wanted still to Chuck up shots for no reason.... Rick Carlisle had to play Boban marjanovic 30 Min in a playoff game bc kristaps didnt was to dominate in the post and take fadaways all game... brunson wasn't a star until last 8 games of the season where he averadged 18 a game and continued that streack in the playoffs but untill then he was a good starting pg
Granted the Mavs haven't made great moves around Luka until recently but you also have to cut the Mavs a little bit of slack cause as evidenced by Luka's play style a team really, really has to find players with the correct mindset to play with Luka. He's not the easiest teammate to play with given his offense dominance and lack of defense as evidenced by the vid.
@advancedapathy1531 Your very first paragraph of your argument already shows that you know nothing about the mavs. Brunson wasn't all star level when he was on the mavs. THJ is an exceptionally streaky shooter who provides negative value outside of when he's shooting well. Saying that THJ is on a good contract just shows that you don't know anything about the mavs. Josh Green has been a solid shooter, but other areas of his game weren't good enough to be a consistent bench piece until this season. Seth Curry is just bad at everything outside of shooting 3s. He's also no longer on the roster. DFS was indeed a solid 3/4, but he's no longer on the team. Maxi is okay as a bench piece, but he hasn't been consistently healthy for a few years now. Tingus Pingus was never healthy and has publicly admitted to not putting in the effort. Saying the mavs have had good rim protection and finishing just ends the debate with you, really. That's patently false, and anyone who knows anything about the mavs will laugh at you for saying that. The mavs won against a Jazz team that was falling apart, again you reveal your ignorance. Jokic has had a more talented and well constructed roster for more years than Luka has, sure some of those years were ravaged by injuries. The reason why Jokic has such otherworldly on/off numbers is because of Malone's rotations and the nuggets roster construction.
On the defensive segment you missed on his post defense. He's elite at that. Big wings have tried to take him into the post and some centers too just to either hit a brick wall (not really a wing but watch the clip of Avdija trying to power through Luka on the dribble at the arc and bouncing back to the ground causing a turnover while Luka just stands there, it's hilarious) or at least get contained. Dude is not agile on defense but he's strong as a bull.
Mind the Game Pod just dropped EP.3 yesterday, now we have Thinking Basketball. Wouldn't it be nice if we could have them drop a video every other day 😆
I feel like mark Cuban needs to hire Ben Patrick (KneesOverToesGuy) to train Luka. He doesn't need to be explosive, or living above the rim for his game to work, but a healthy balance of injury proofing, conditioning, and strength could keep this guy in the top of MVP voting for the remainder of the 2020s. It always looks like he is reserving energy (off ball, on defence, etc) to use it all for when he is most effective - with the ball in his hands. It just feels like he is an attitude adjustment, and a consistent workout routine away from being a multiple time MVP
@@gospaironija2762 He isn't he strongest, he is just a heavy 6"7'. He clearly doesn't care much about conditioning since even Jokic, who has a similar body type to luka, runs like a mf all the time and is lightyears ahead of Luka is production and impact.
If you watch the games...past 4 seasons there was countless times Luka left the game and the team didnt know how to score...one instance (or more) was in the playoffs where the man couldnt even sit on the bench for more than 2 mins before his team was blowing leads
I do find this interesting however you can’t deny his impact to the team and the fact he deserves serious MVP consideration. He makes the game look so easy on offense. Also Steph is otherworldly lol
Really appreciate the middle of video where you articulate what i think many of us have felt watching Luca and kyrie in particular - the my turn/your turn effect. Definitely makes sense that it's thanks to Luca's stagnant off-ball performance & how attached he is to isolation play even when he gets the ball *back* later in a possession. He's amazing at individual scoring, and can create great for teammates in a couple very specific ways... But as good as he is at that stuff, he's quite ineffective in other key offensive scenarios an NBA team needs to run to be on top in today's game.
As a Mavs fan it is perplexing to see how Luka and Jokic have such distinct on/off numbers yet it feels like they are the two best players on the planet. Though I think that Luka's improvement on the defensive and his chemistry with Kyrie Irving will show a different story in this year's playoffs.
If the stats for jokic and luka stay the same next year, luka is mvp, but this year, because of what happened last year and bc of the sitting, jokic is mvp, a closed case, except for mabye an abismal last stretch for jokic
But hasn't it been the last third of the season? It seems, besides a minor 4 or 5 game slip, once the lineup has been fully intact, the team has gelled and Luka's production has matched his impact.
The collection of players that play to each others strengths with complementary skill sets, unselfishness, and ball movement will always triumph over individual brilliance. This is the heart of the Luka mystery, and much of it is by his own choice. With the blessing of hindsight it is obvious that he did not allow Brunson to do as much as he was capable of when they shared the court. You could argue that Brunson wasn’t deserving of more at the time, but then you’d have to explain how the same thing is happening now with proven superstar Kyrie Irving when he shares the floor with Luka. Luka’s greatest weapon lends itself to his greatest weakness. The fact that he CAN do everything on the floor with the basketball in his hands makes him feel like he MUST do everything on the floor with the basketball in his hands. Until he corrects that weakness, the story with him will remain the same.
Mavs were an absolute shithouse with 0 creation outside of Luka and Brunson all those years until they traded for Dinwiddie, and Brunson was a 2nd round draft pick who still needed a lot of development. If the ball wasn't in Luka's hands there was no winning the game, period. What he needs is a secondary creator and ball handler (kyrie) and some big athletic bodies that can play defense and score inside (Washington, Exum, Gafford, Lively) with 3pt shooters. That's exactly what they've had since February and the Mavs are on track for a 61 game season based on their play since they made these trades.
To Answer your question: It's important to know this is his sixth year in the league. A sample size of 5 years of a team driving through rebuilds it's not gonna look 2 good. His roster was not quite there in my opinion. His best roster is the present one and even now isn't being used as well as it could (at times)... You're comparing retired players and some older like giannis who is relatively late in his career compared to Lukac (cp3, steph). If you do this graph in 10 years i bet he'll be in that elite company, bet. (edit) all you've said is fire, i'd also like to see him improve in his involment as you've described it. If he gets that running this stats gonna look absurd haha. Good video man really enjoyed it
The Luka system works well and Irving is an all-star that leverages it when Luka is on the bench. The 2 superstars of the team plays the same role. Brundson also leverages it, but indeed also exploits by himself at NYK
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289 true but he’s comparing their roles next to Luka. Off-ball threats when he is in. And Ball-dominant creators that fill the offensive void when he’s out.
It’s more like the fat body problem. U can’t be running around with double chins and expect to be a two way player and a good off ball player. That requires the player to be in shape.
Unless the teams play style changes, I can see his career mirroring Hardens to a T. He’s currently in the “Dwight Howard” era. Where the team added another superstar to play alongside him. That lasted a few years but they mainly toiled in the 3-6 range in the standings. The next era would be the D’antoni era. Surround him with elite shooters and defenders. Only role players. Luka would still play a heliocentric style but the role players would simply catch and shoot his passes. And make up for his defense. Hoping he gets used more off ball so he doesn’t go down that path.
Maybe you should check the rotation with Luka on/off the court to understand the +/- thing. Joker playing with 3 starters at least all the time. Luka playing with most of the bench... while Kyrie playing with the starters
@@Tantibus7 I just watch basketball and recently noticed that +/- on twitter. Apparently D White is the best player on the world... it has nothing to do with the other 4 players he is sharing the court with
This is just incorrect, jokic plays with the bench consistently. He’s out there with Braun, Watson, Reggie and maybe one starter every game. Especially when zeke is injured (frequently) and because DJ barely plays (e.g. no backup center).
@@splev8111 Lol this is just not true. Jokic play without his starters for 5 years and still put up a 10+ box minus, you just can't accept the fact that Jokic makes his team play better than luka will ever do.
I wish he'd learn from his best friend Jokic and the Nuggets about all their movement and how they're all threats off ball. Fantastic video Ben. It explains so much.
@@ssjohnson23they literally look like a good team too when Kyrie/Brunson plays without him. Y'all just love riding on his meat as an absolute fanboy 😂😂
@@judyclarkson5887you think the mavs look good when it’s only kyrie??? Just no. Kyrie looks great everyone else doesn’t. They keep passing back to Luka and kyrie because they can’t make their own plays. That’s not Lukas fault
1. He has a +7.6 on/off swing. The team is negative in net rating in minutes with him off floor. 2. They are 3-6 without him 3. They have battled a lot of injuries this year. Now even Dereck Lively got hurt.
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810 Why are we factoring in a 20 year old, 21 year old Luka and 22 year old Luka into how his production isn’t “impactful” anyone with eyes knows Luka has played like the best player in the league this season
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810 Cause Mave have always been a really bad team except for now. Look at both on and off stats. Mavs are big time in minus when he's off the floor and plus 4 when he's on. Luka had Dwight Powell as a center for 5 years lol So, ofcourse he's not gonna be +18 like Curry cause curry has always had a stacked team. Look at the differential when he's on and off the floor. MJ at Mavs wouldn't fare any better cause mavs have been THAT bad.
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810Let’s talk about it. What players did he have exactly? Don’t even say Kyrie he didn’t even play half of a season last year so go on
You're comparing Luka's 5 years in the league with the best 5-year stretch in other players' careers. Seems a bit skewed. Best 5 years is when legends will have their teams fully assembled around them, and exclude the building the team years.
bron's on/off from 09 to 17 was +15 jokic's on/off from 21 to now is +16 steph's on/off from 14 to 19 was +17 luka's on/off THIS SEASON is +7.7 (career high) you're welcome
@@oliviercolletaz5841 All good, but the whole premise of this video and your response is a misunderstanding of what the box +/- is and how it should be used. How it should NOT be used is as a cross-team player v player comparison which is how both you and the "Thinking" Basketball poster are using it. It is a stat that is meaningful to the internal structure of your roster is constructed and how the coach is handling the rotation--not something to be compared with other players and teams, who each have their reasons for why they play the rotations they do. Perhaps the reason for the difference is not what I suggest, but that doesn't justify this interpretation which is just an attempt to hate on a player who makes you feel threatened because he's gonna whup your favorite team while laughing his ass off. And that's 90% of this whole advanced stat nonsense--people who don't understand how a stat is calculated, what it's used to measure, etc. pontificating on what that means about their favorite player (when the advanced stat suits them) and what it means about the player that threatens their favorite player's status (when the advanced stat has potential for negative spin, as is the case here).
Plus minus is a flawed stat due to some teams playing their starting lineup and bench lineups completely separate and some running staggered lineups where a few of the best players are on the court at all times.
Every stats has its flaws. That is why when analysing a team or a player we should look at many different advanced stats and compare them, to see where are the flaws and where are the strengths of each one, in order to paint a more accurate picture of a player/team
Every stat is flawed. So ppl should WATCH THE ACTUAL GAMES. The eye test proves all and gives you all the information that stats can't even point out accurately
The issue is the style. Plaining simple. I judge basketball players not on how good they are and at an all-time level, but their style. Westbrook is better than Klay Thompson, but Klay Thompson's style is much better for a team than westbrooks. These ball dominant dudes have to go away lol. They ruin pickup basketball
Man, this channel really lives up to the name. Even in subjective points that could be perspective, he renders enough evidence that you have to say 'hm, good points'.
Celtics fan here....This is the best video in the NBA commentary world (I watch a lot of NBA vids). Ben is head & shoulders the best in the business. Worlds better than Timpf, KOC, Zach Lowe, Windy, etc etc... I'm looking forward to the Thinking Basketball or Ben's vids this season.
@@dariusdragomir9414 What are you talking about? Winning it twice means he finished top 5 both times. That right there is more than once. Add in last year's 2nd place finish and that's 3 times
I think its largely because he is usually playing with mostly bench players when brunson/kyrie is sitting, who most of the time misses shots and he ends up just equalizing the deficiencies of his teammates. He is mostly paired up with powell for example in his first 5yrs who gives up points so easily.
@@elislifestyle4605they do not play better with kyrie only. Luka has the ball more because he’s better at scoring and play making than kyrie. Not because suddenly players get much better with kyrie
@@elislifestyle4605 No Kyrie does not "get players involved" at least not as much as Luka does. When Luka is off the floor Kyrie is mainly playing iso ball while using his teammates to get the switches he wants.
1. It's because this graph is about 5 year sample while picking the best 5 year span of the player.. But in case of Luka this season is only his 6th season not many years to cherrypick .. It means players who already played 15-20 years have bigger sample to choose from. 2. On/Off or Plus/Minus is still a team stats.. Most of the time superstars will have their best On/Off seasons in the years they have a contender/championship caliber team.. The better your team is the better your Net rating will be. 3. Luka has to play his first 5 years with Dwight Powell as the Mavs main center who plays most of his minutes along side Luka.. Even if Luka is dropping 30-40 pts a night if his starting Center has zero paint protection giving opponents layup lane, it's no use.. This year is Luka's 1st year where Luka is playing alongside good rim protectors and his On/Off is also increased.. It's not a coincidence.
I've seen Zaza Pachulia with much better Plus-minus and on-off stats with different teams. According to some people that means Zaza was better 😄 The truth is that the stat is flawed and can't be used to measure every single individual holistically. One example why it's the case here is because - Luka and harden command so much attention that whole defensive adjustments are geared towards stopping them. Once they sit, defenses have no idea what to expect. There is simply a limited amount of information you can load into your defense as a coach, and these players cause overload. + tiring the best defenders, +matching best defensive combos to their minutes and a bunch of other stuff skews these stats. If that wasn't the case dallas wouldn't be on pace of being one of the worst teams in the league without him. Also, Luka just plays better and more focused against better defences. Check his stats against top 10 defenses and it becomes apparent why his stats jump in the playoffs as well.
I think Ben is right about possible explanations for Luka's on / off numbers: 1) Poor defence. 2) Redundancy. 3) Noise. These three factors add up. The fact that the Mavs are 3-6 without him and he carried the team to a respectable number of wins despite injuries on the team conveys his value.
It´s pretty simple: the Mavericks are not able to utilize him properly even though he´s a generational talent and a top three player in the world. Luka is resposibe for his numbers and not for what happens when he sits on the bench. Watch it the other way around. The mavs without him play on a certain level and then this unbelievable player comes in and the coach isn´t even able to capitalize on that, they don´t play better. Lukas fault? I doubt it.
It’s not just that Luka isn’t the best defender. It’s that having Kyrie and Luka in the floor at the same time tends to cause defensive mismatches. When it’s just Kyrie, Luka is replaced with a better defender. Love the other points you made though. Great video.
Reason why Plus Minus is misleading is because the individual's stat is affected by the team around him. Any players can have positive plus minus even when their performance is bad when they have a great team around them. During the KP years, it was a miracle they even made the playoffs twice with KP being constantly injured and Brunson was still terrible his first 3 years in the league, the 2nd best player was actually THJ and he got injured a lot too. During that 2022 WCF run, Brunson was just starting to bloom, but the rest of his team were proven to be non starters when they were traded to other teams. That makes that WCF run even more impressive. Last year was an even bigger disaster as the team around him were just lackluster performers, JaVale, Dwight, and Wood were his starting Cs and barely even registering minutes this season, Spencer was his 2nd best teammate (who is not even playing tons of minutes when traded to the Nets and now with the Lakers). But yet, they were still 3rd in the Western Conference before the Ky trade. And the reason why they didn't make the POs was the Mavs FO decided to tank and get Lively in the draft. This year, he is with an injury prone team, Mavs starters pale in comparison in minutes combined when compared to other teams, but when everyone is healthy, they are actually a 65 win pace team. Best indicator of his impact is PIE which shows that he is a top 5 player in the league. The other top 5 in that chart have 50 plus winning records but also has way more combined minutes with their starters than Luka has. I think Luka is going to surprise us all in the POs, and this current team of his (that has only became healthy lately) will be a revelation in the coming playoffs.
This is ridiculous. Lukas on/off metrics have been poor for the overall season because of heavy injuries, Kidd staggering starters and playing Luka heavy minutes in general with bench players who have been extremely poor for the entirety of the season. But when you look at Luka on/off metrics since the trade deadline and since they finally got healthy his on/off metrics are LITERALLY the best itl. Last 15 games they were +8.3 on and a - 19.5 without luka. These guys don’t understand how +/- and on/off works
I feel like many people overlook this, how a player impacts the game that don't necessarily show up in the stats. You can have 2 players with similar stats but one makes their team better and the other makes their team worse. One achieves those stats in a way that builds the teams overall approach and another might do so in a way that's actually to their teams detriment. Some things like the +/- can even be deceiving cause it can be subtly manipulated. One we see with people like LeBron pretty often is having many times where he's on court for his teams FTs and sits when the other team has FTs before coming back. His team is almost always better when he's not playing but it doesn't necessarily show up on a stat sheet. Chemistry is another big thing, average players that mesh well can beat a superteam with no chemistry much of the time cause it's a team sport, not a 1v1 contest. And it only takes one player to throw off a teams rhythm and chemistry, even a phenomenal player.
I think Joker and Jordan had the same question in their first few years in that they had great numbers but their teams were not the best in the league and they only started to win after their teams learned to complement them with other great players and took away their usage and spread some of the responsibilities with their roster
@@saiwaqa2573 have you seen ph Washington play defense since hes joined the mavs? Dude is elite. With a whole season in his role playing his level, they have the bruce bowen, stacey augmon, Shane battier level prototype. Gafford and lively the 2 best fg% in the league. Tim Hardaway actually holds this team back. He was the second best mav in the bubble. He has players now.
@@saiwaqa2573 Gordon wasn't even considered a top 10 Forward in the league when they got him, and still isn't. His level is an above average starter, that's it.
Best analysis of Luka’s game I have ever seen! You showed some of his weaknesses that I had not noticed yet. It is interesting that while some of those weaknesses are out of his total control, like his vertical, some can be addressed through the team’s player development program, training and coaching yet he has shown no improvement throughout the year. I wonder why? On the +/- I think one reason we don’t see a big difference between his on/off floor is that Dallas has been and still is a mediocre shooting team in terms of efficiency (aside of Kyrie and the 2 centers). Right before the trade deadline Dallas had players like THJ, G Williams and Josh Green all shooting 41%. My point is Luka could make Dallas a much better team offensively if he was surrounded by players that could consistently shoot above 45-46%, if that was the case he could be averaging above 12-13 assists per game since he consistently creates wide open shots for them. Disclaimer: I am no analyst just a fan so my take could be totally off the ballpark
@@superdopehiphop Steph is the reason the warriors are not dead last every year in the standings, in 2020 he had broken his wrist they were dead last, since he was out, the next year in 2021 they were 6th seed before Steph got injured and they fell to the play in spot. He produces the most wins for a team compared to anyone else
@@da1boij284 no he doesn’t. Win Shares and WS/48 say otherwise. They’re literally 9-3 in Playoff games without him since 2016! Name another star ever you can say that about.
As a mav's fan and luka apologist, I think you're right on the money when it comes to his off-ball offensive play. He's often a spectator when Kyrie has the ball. And you also showed a frequent problem he has in some of your clips, where he rotates early and isn't in position for ORB or follow-up play. Fantastic video.
This video is just looking stupider and stupider by the hour. I look forward to the follow up on this video where "stat nerds" need to learn to ignore statistical outliers, and pay more attention to the dozens of other metrics that paint a different picture.
Please do sabonis next. I feel like most people look past his defense because of his stats, but he gets hunted on defense. He is always being put in the pick and roll and rarely makes the right decision. He gets lost or hedges too far out. He had one of the worst triple doubles in nba history when it comes to +\- this year. It would be ok if he were scoring absurd points like luka to make up for it, but he doesnt. He struggles to score and create shots for himself. He is scared to shoot the midrange and any possession he takes more than 2-3 dribbles on ends badly. Him losing the ball ramming into defenders to try and draw the foul
Luka had dwight powell and reggie bullock starting the first 5 years of his career, +\- is a team stat too that doesn’t fully show the impact that a player has. What was the point here to try and prove the mavs would be better without him and he doesn’t contribute to winning? Ask any mavs fan who has watched every game, luka used to be the only player keeping us outta the lottery
@@xavierb9061kyrie is the first player to actually be this good. Brunson had his moments but ultimately the mavs didn’t want to pay him more than the Knicks. He was also not as good as he is now.
Dawg did you even watch the video?? One of the categories of analysis is literally that these stats are just NOISE, and he concludes it by saying Luka is a top 15 offensive player of all time. Finish the video before you comment 😭
I want to hear more breakdowns about their current run. I think they unlocked prime Mavs this year. I am curious what Thinking Basketball's analysis of the "how" is.
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂. EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 . In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
Its actually a good stat, because it shows everything that other statistics hide.. i can see that you are assuming that somebody who has a good shot percentage and no direct turnovers is a good players.. but you miss to see how good somebody makes blocks how good is his movement off the ball, is he dragging other players, does he make good passes outside assists, is he playing defence at all etc. Thats why basketball is more than just the statistics
Yeah thats not how it plays out over a 5 year stretch. But I get it, Luka is the clear outlier amonst players of the same caliber so we need them excuses on why on/off splits dont mean anything.
@frankj3676 Why do they mean anything? KCP, for the past two years, has had a higher on/off than any year of Shaq and both of Lebron's Miami MVP seasons.
It really does drive me crazy that he doesn't play more off ball, but I think he just works so hard night in and night out to torch defenders in isolation that he tries to save a little bit of energy by giving Kai the ball and letting him go to work.
Did you see the play against the Pacers when Luka came off the screen? He could've immediately jumped into the shot off the catch, but he didn't. He waited for the defender to catch up and took a tougher shot that he missed. That's not smart.
@@urbaindelva7869 Usually he waits for them to catch up so he can lull them to sleep and then blow by. But yeah, there are some questionable shots he takes out there for sure. I think he takes some of them to get oohs and ahhs from the MVP voters lol.
This reminds me of Wilt vs. Russell. On the stat sheet, Wilt had more production. But Russell had a bigger impact, he made a bigger difference for his team, giving them 11 championships as opposed to Wilt’s 2.
You can't put Russell's 11 championships solely down to him. He played in a stacked Celtics team, despite winning 11 he was only finals MVP 5 times. if Wilt played in that Celtics team he would also have many more championships.
@@MR12AMAZING Bill didn't win a single finals MVP, the award didn't exist back then. He won 5 regular season MVPs though, one more than Wilt's 4. The point, however, is that Russell made his team much better, Wilt did not. Wilt has even said this himself: "If I played with Cousy and the others I would have taken a lot of what they were good at away from them, Bill didn't do that". When Wilt played with the stacked Lakers (first superteam) they only won 1 championship and Wilt famously became known as a loser who only put up big numbers and couldn't contribute to winning. There is a thinking basketball video on the topic where Ben demonstrates how Russell had a much more positive impact on his team than Wilt did, even in Wilt's insane 61-62 season. Since he, in part, uses advanced statistics, the video is called "Russell's statistical case over Wilt". I recommend watching it if you're interested!
The Mavericks are the team with second most injuries in the league this season, so Luka has had to play a bunch of games over 40 minutes or more to win at all. Kyrie didn't play 22 games, Green didn't play 22 games, Exum didn't play 25 games, Lively didn't play 20 games, and Maxi Kleber didn't play 37 games, not to mention the others. Regardless of all the injuries, Luka still kept team to the connection to the top 7 in the West, which means that he used a ton of energy, so if he didn't spend so much energy in offense, his +/- would be a much higher in +. We can see the difference from before and now after the trade, when he finally got teammates who they're right for him and they're helpful, now he uses less energy in offense, so now he have much more energy and he can play defense and by the way, now he play decent defense, so now his numbers and stats are changing rapidly on better. Since his rookie season, he always had to spend a lot more energy to win because he didn't have a real help, so that literally means he carried the team on his back. The statistics show that the team lost when Luka was not on the court, i.e. it was in the red, but when he played, the team was in the plus and winning. Since the trade, for the first time in his career, he has a good team, a real good teammates who are compatible with his game, maybe they need just another good shooter who can play good defense and is consistent. Tim is not that player precisely because he does not have consistency.
on/off is a bad stat. it's about rotations and roster construction, not individual skill. you can see that quite obviously in a case study like Jayson Tatum who went from +16.5 in 21-22 to +0.4 this season. Tatum is at least as good as he was 2 years ago. the only difference is his teammates/rotation.
Luka reminds me of other superb offensive iso players who were mediocre on defense. Melo, AI, Harden among others. AI demonstrated the template for that: you need a world class defense behind you to make it work and you need to have superb conditioning. So AI was able to make it to the Finals in one year because he had that defensive team, excellently coached, and off the charts usage rate that didn't cost them in efficiency. But most of his carrier that didn't work.
@@deadlylightningspirit4295Harden was the same kind of passer Luka is… They’re just too ball dominant and stay in front of the defense. Kobe explained their style well. It’s not a winning style
This children is why you don't hyper fixate on one stat metric... you look at ALL the metrics and stats, and most importantly WATCH THE GAME, to understand how good a player is. Don't be like Thinking (moronically about) Basketball
@@ChibiMalzahar The entire premise of this dumb video is to con stupid people into believing that Luka doesn’t impact winning, he just puts up stats… this narrative is clownish. All you have to do is look at Dallas’ win/loss record with him, vs without him.
@@ed379 I hear you. I do think ben underestimated dallas before the wcf which he admitted in a podcast. And he's a little lower on luka than some other people, or at least was. But I got the sense Lukas weird +/- and ball dominant playstyle are just interesting to explore for him, not really as indictment of Luka as a player. He talks about that on his podcast too. But mega nerds like Ben just like to talk about unique statistical patterns I don't think it's about a narrative. Also he watches tons of games like I promise he's not just picking stats out of a hat. If this were a twitter post I'd probably be on your side
@@fuura6014 First of all dummy, who said anything about MVP? Second of all, he also lead his team to the NBA finals… 3rd, he’s the first player in NBA history to lead the postseason in points, rebounds, and steals. So please explain to me with your sub 85 IQ, how his game doesn’t equate to winning?
I find it interesting that you (Ben Taylor) make an argument about part of what’s going on with Luka’s impact numbers is Kyrie and Brunson being on the court when Luka is out and those sidekicks are ball dominant players that can step in to run the offense. But in the many podcasts and videos I’ve seen of Thinking Basketball, I’ve heard it brought it frequently that Jordan’s on off impact was not special among the great players…and then rarely mention that Pippen was usually in the game (vs opponents bench) when Jordan was out much like Kyrie and Brunson. In the 6 title years, Bulls with pippen and no MJ were only 1-5 (14 win pace) with only win against an all time worst team. With MJ and no pippen, they were 32-12 (60win pace). With both players playing they were they were 355-87 (66 win pace).
Ben, You also point to the 1994 team winning 55 games. That had an almost entirely new team than 94 and had MUCH of what would be 1996 72 win team. Swap out Horace for Rodman (relatively small impact on change)…adding Jordan to 94 team would be better than 96 team because Jordan would be two years younger. The takeaway is that 96 team had. 13.4 net rating and 94 team had a 3.3 net rating very similar team minus Jordan in 1994 team.
Isn’t this just a fancy plus/minus stat? You are only as good as the players around you? I feel like if Luka didn’t impact his team in winning wouldn’t they have a the same winning percentage when he didn’t play? The Mavs have always had a losing record when he misses games. This is the kind of nonsense people use when they are hating on Luka. Because he plays so many minutes the time off the court is a small sample size that can be altered with a few good scoring bursts from his teammates when he’s off the floor.
You talk about +/- when he is on/off, but you wont add that he not playing when they lead by a lot(which many players in graph do) or that he play with injury prone star players his whole career(Porz, Kyrie)+ his teammates in first unit through the years are much worse, just for *ex. Jokič(MPJ, Gordon, Murray) Curry(Durant, Klay, Draymond, Iggy)...Offcourse they have insane +/-, because they have insane best 5 players, same as Boston this year!
you cant put jokic's teammates with currys or this year boston.Nuggets players would be much worse without jokic in their team,dont think thats the case with the other two
you really trying to sneak in Curry when he was the embodiment of not playing when up. in 2016 i remember that he sat like 25% of 4th quarters even when hot that JJ podcast even mentioned it.
What are you even saying dude? If he plays with injury prone players wouldnt his +/- impact be higher? If his team is worse, that means the team's net rating should plummet more without their superstar. You are not making any sense.
Steph barely played in the 4th quarter in his 2016 run, he made the warriors go up by 20 in 3rd quarter and was able to sit out for the 4th. Steph +/- is so high because he produced winning runs for his team and was able to sit down since they are leading, he doesn't play when its a blowout or a large lead
@@davorbeljan4369 What you said makes no sense. Injury prone players miss more games. If your 2nd best player is KP or Kyrie and they are injured, the team would be worse. So how the f would his +/- be higher without his 2nd best teamate if his team is now significantly shitter without said teamate that he plays with? Your logic is broken.
two thoughts: ISO ball leads to a stagnant offense so even though luka is getting off his PnR plays, overall the team doesn’t get into the right rhythm since not everyone is always involved in the plays. one theory i’ve had is because luka has a much slower pace than most players, his teammates can’t get into the right shooting rhythm when he kicks it out for a 3. I’d be curious to see if the mavs have a higher wide open missed 3pt percentage when he’s on the court vs off.
This makes me want to go back and see how he played off ball with Dragic. The great Jonathan Tjarks said that the key for Luka and the Mavs is that ultimately he has to get better at playing off the ball
Ben mentioned this briefly, but during the last five years the Mavs have won 60% of their games when Luka plays (195-129), and only 40% when he’s out (25-37). That’s a pretty huge difference. But it is confounding how that clashes with the on/off stats.
@@willrobbins2550 imagine calling me silly when you give me a time stamp that says they are slightly better than hardens when in fact they are way better than hardens...
His bad defense and zero off-ball game are the the only things holding him back from domination. Still I like the way Jokic outsmarts his defenders better. Ball dominant players raise the floor level a lot, but they alone are the hard ceiling for the whole team.
@@CardOne4all no it's not. there are plenty of far worse defenders in the NBA than luka. do you categorize them all the same or do words actually have meanings?
As many of you noticed, I did forget Jokic on the first graph! I was playing with his projected numbers and forgot to include his actual 2019-2023 numbers (+8 on, +13 on/off). Including 2024, he'd jump to +9 on, +17 on/off, passing LeBron for #2.
It's ok. Your agenda was exposed. All good.
Hey there...do you have access to the team's points per possession for with Luka and without? I think that would add a bit of info for the offensive end at least. (Well we can look at PPP with and without for defense, as well.) I'd be interested to see your take on those stats and if they affect the narrative you are so great at sussing out.
Edit: Oh....and same thing for playoffs. Btw what would you professional statheads call this stat....PPPW&W?
How can you forget one of the best players in history of the game in JOKIC???
Marc Jackson style! 😂
Nah. You haven't forgotten... But when you inserted Jokic, you realized he's off-screen and that you need to redraw the graphics again.
1:00 If anyone was curious, Nate “Tiny” Archibald was the only other player to average 34pts and 10ast, in 72-73
Didn’t know that dude from gossip girl was a baller damn
9.8
Oh my! What the gyatt!
on 46 minutes tbf
@@madsnn4222 acting like curry could 46. On rosters back then not GS and no Kerr lol. Dame. Trae. Who
That Curry Stat on the first graph is absolute madness
curry is messi 4r
Go look at Jokic's on/off
Jokic has a best on off of any player ever @@realone296
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂.
EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 .
In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂.
EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 .
In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
steph on that first graph😂
Really made me remember about a quote.
"Steph isn't a Warrior, He IS The Warriors"
And people said steph doesnt impact the current game
Meanwhile NBA twitter is talking about taking current Luka over 2016 Steph lmao
@@robertreyes8792yeah I’m a mavs fan I’d take Luka over Steph but that because he is a mav he isn’t near the impact player that 2016 Steph is.
@@GoodVibez102/12Fg his team still wins by 15 Points 😂😂
Curry has a season with 39 bad games in 66 played and his team still made the play-offs 😂
At the end of the day though, his strength with the ball in his hands is what makes him one of the best playoff performers. When all the little things like slashing and cutting to open space are locked down he might be the best at creating offense out of nothing. (Jokic is the best due to his height advantage but as a perimeter oriented player it’s Luka)
Bro has won a singular playoff series ever technically 2 but he was hurt for the majority of the jazz series so idk how u can say he’s one of the best playoff performers?
Team around him has never been as talented as this year, Porzingis was injured in the Clippers series. I watched him torch Kawhi and PG like they were average defenders in the playoffs, Clippers were a much more talented team so they won in the end.@@christianwaters3437
@@christianwaters3437because he was much better in the play offs than in the regular season. Carried a mediocre team who’s 2nd player was a very different Brunson. He avgs the second most play off points and is going against better teams and defenders than #1 did
@@deadlylightningspirit4295 brunson wasn't that different, the next year he was a killer on the knicks. Also, brunson cleaned out the Jazz in that series. Luka's gotta change his game if he wants to win titles. Also, For the Jokic comparison, look at Jokic's usage rating compared to luka's. Jokic plays in the flow of the offense while luka needs the ball every sec to make something happen. totally different. Luka just wants to put on a show while Jokic wants to win
@@blottolotto7648 ok actually take a second to think the difference between jokic and Luka and their teams. Lukas usage rate is gonna be higher either way (it has gone down since kyrie got back and is still inflated due to injuries.) Luka and kyrie are the only players who can dribble,play make,and create shots consistently. Lukas gonna have the ball if the don’t want to turn it over a ton
This was really eye opening on how much off ball play can impact games. Though jokic and luka have similar strengths like scoring and passing, jokic's off ball play elevates him to another level.
Jokic plays with starters mostly. Luka plays with bench players. This does not accurately say anything of meaning
@@deadlylightningspirit4295Luka does primarily play with starters. It’s just harder to gauge because there has been so many lineup changes due to injury, which shouldn’t drastically impact on/off numbers
@@Аянп-н5лI think the point he was making is more so that Jokic pretty much ONLY plays with starters and those starters for the most part have been healthy this season too, the Mavs only have one starting lineup with over 200 minutes played this season and the nuggets starting lineup has played 1500 this season, Jokic is extremely impactful but again on/off and +/- do not tell the full story, Mavs post trade line sample is a much more telling story of what Luka can do with a consistent lineup and not playing with g league players for 1/3 of the season
@@chugcanthoop Jokic has been stuffing the +/- box for four seasons. Two of those four seasons his entire starting squad wouldn't have even come off the bench for most other teams in the NBA. Also, Jokic has been playing with his bench since December this year. Malone changed the rotations so that Jokic plays out the entire 1st quarter, with 2 starters subbing out at about 6 mins, and 2 more at 3 mins. Jokic plays the entire last 3 mins of the 1st with 4 bench players for the past 30 games.
@@JakeStine no doubt, but jokic being 100th percentile in 5 major box +/- stats is not something he’s done the past 3 seasons that increase happened at the end of last season-this season which is what I was basing it off of, it wasn’t a dig at Jokic, just this season Jokic hasn’t played over 100 minutes with multiple g league guys while Luka has and that’s more of the point I was trying to make.
Luka's case is particularly interesting.
Dallas has not been a great team by any means the last couple of years, not even with Luka on the floor, but he is one of (if not the) most clear contributor to wins of the team.
This season Dallas is 3-6 when he's off, and 42-24 with him on (which would almost tie Dallas with the top 3 teams on the west, by win percentage)
It’s worth noting that in those games he’s missed, he’s often sitting back to backs by mandate of the team.
Many of those games are ones in which they’re entering as big underdogs in second night of road back to back ie “scheduled loss” type of games.
He hasn’t suffered a significant injury in his career, it’s usually maintenance style rest days.
@@eye4impactnba572Kyrie has also missed 3 of those games
@@eye4impactnba572Check your facts before you yap. He missed MEM, HOU, POR, NOP x 2, MIN x 2 NYK once and OKC once. Of those, you could _at most_ call the two MIN games scheduled losses. Especially because they beat NY and the Pels, and competed against OKC after Luka left the prior game early hobbled.
@@eye4impactnba572 agreed, no major injuries, luckily. However, he's been dealing with nagging injuries (ankles and knees, primarily) that did prevented him from playing.
Interestingly enough, he's been having these problems since practically the begining of the season, when Kyrie went down and he had a stretch of games averaging about 40/42 minutes per game.
Still, he played through it more times than not.
Luka's tough. If he isn't wearing down to his limit, he's not missing games.
He also has the 3rd most injured team this season so they got way behind compared to now. They are 11-1 when luka plays in their last 12 and the only game they lost was against the warriors, plus that wasn’t his fault or Irving’s. Proof: bench points 13. Golden states 39.
You missed the largest reason, although you nearly got there once. It’s largely about rotations. Look at Jokic. He plays 80% of his minutes with 3 starters on the floor. Doncic players roughly half his minutes with 3 starters off the floor.
On/off is largely dependent upon team rotations - who are you surrounding your star with? If multiple starters and a ball dominant guard like Kyrie or Brunson is out there when he’s on the bench, then you shouldn’t expect eye popping on/off, particularly if when he’s on the court he is often with 3 bench players. It skews the on/off. He has the 2nd highest Player Impact Estimate, but a mediocre on/off. He’s 2nd or 3rd in nearly ever advanced efficiency metric you can think of, but on/off doesn’t back it up. The answer you are looking for is simple: rotations.
Its crazy that no one pays attention to that. +/- is not a good stat to compare players
@@A7JJ77 It's all about cherry-picking a stat to support your narrative and agenda rather than truly "thinking" basketball.
@@Tophergr8facts😭The point guard when Luka is off is Kyrie while when Jokic is off it’s either no center or 35 year old Deandre Jordan💀. This man just wants to push his narratives like Skip and SAS do
Lol a month later, Luka leads the mavs to the playoffs.
But, yeah people do this all the time with statistics. It's interesting to explore, but it doesn't really mean or tell us much.
@@A7JJ77 +/- is a terrible stat when the player that it's being applied to isn't a good defender or good offensive player (Irving, Doncic, Gobert, Harden, etc.) In Luka's case his impact is weak because he's a 1-dimensional player lacking defense.
We need this on off graph with Jokic in 2 years
Pretty sure Jokics on/off graph is very similar to Jordans lol
Non-Jokic minutes of Denver is so terrible that I switch to another game at the beginning of 2nd and 4th quarters. It's just unwatchable.
Jokic is like the anti-Luka in terms of on/off numbers. His regular season numbers are off the charts but his playoff numbers are lackluster despite the eye test saying he is an awesome playoff performer.
@@berryesseen jokic plays barely any minutes with bench players
@@berryesseenYou can treat non-Jokic minutes as tv ads, lol.
2:24 Steph is built fucking alternatively
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂.
EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 .
In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
this is wrong on so many levels...
1. plus minus stats only apply when you're on the court...so if your team loses by 20 you're not necessarily at -20
2. if a player had 20/20 fg and 0 turnovers...i highly doubt your team loses by 20 @@onlyfacts3178
@@onlyfacts3178That only works like tht if you are playing all 48 minutes. Plus minus only counts for when you are on the court.
@@onlyfacts3178 That's true... which is why it's stretched over the last 5 years, which means statistical outliers are less relevant. Statistics get more accurate as there is more data. 5 years of data is a loooot of data.
Usually, role player have great +/- when the team has a high floor increasing the overall ceiling of what a team can achieve. Think the Nuggets with and without Gordon or KCP for a recent example, or how bad the Lakers became when they traded away their good role players for a third star.
Stars on the other hand tend to have diminishing returns when the team has already enough star power: adding a third star usually doesn't add as much value as adding a second for example (any big 3 had at least one star massively decrease their production).
Steph is the greatest outlier to this rule I've ever seen: put Steph on a mediocre team, and he will improve it, but put him on a very good one and they'll become unstoppable.
As you clearly can see in the that graph. Truly one of kind.
Over his last 13 games, since they shifted the starting lineup, Luka has +12NET
That is a very small sample size
Small sample, but even garbage-time-filter websites like Cleaning the Glass (I think that's the name) have Luka's on-off at around +8
If the team didnt have kyrie for the luka less mins luka wouod have the highest differential in the league on off @joshualee9540
I think the point of the video was to show how bad Luka can be on defense
@@fringe_minority yea but that small sample size from last 15 games says he got rly good rly quick
but who knows maybe Gafford showing luka some def , we know luka wants to be good at def so ...
also people say luka and kye are bad defenders but i seen them jump for loose balls like they rodman
Jesus those defensive lowlights are brutal
MVP! 😂
@@AlAl-b5j defense rarely matters for that. Even Harden has one
And I can put up a long highlight of his defense that makes him look like an All Defensive caliber player. Watch the entire game.
@@YunisRajabharden also had the team record
Luka is a great offensive player but he will not truly be a great player until he starts playing better defense!
Mavs need to build a team that actually fits Lukas playstyle. Just look at their performance after the trade deadline. They added defence and athleticism which was perfect for Luka. Also Kyrie is in my opinion one of the best partners for him since Kyrie can play off ball and lead the offence if Luka isn’t on the court. Luka still has things to work on like his off ball or his defence. He improved as a defensive player tho. At the end the plus minus stat is misleading anyways and shouldn’t be that important as a tool to determine a players value to his team. Remember guys you may don’t like harden but he was on pace to win it all if the best team ever didn’t exist
His catch and shoot attempts went up over twice the amount from last season and the percentages still went up by 5%. The mavs are top ten in fast break points and they average more passes per possession than last year. Luka can be great at anything. And his off ball play is severely slept on...
His defense? 7th in steals and top 15 in deflections. As an average perimeter defender per advanced statistics. But he really shines in post defense. I watched him big boy domantas "elbow to the throat" saboner at least 5 times recently.
The eye test says he is the best player in the league. That's all. It's his party.
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289 I agree and I think that he will get his mvp if he manages to finish as a top4 seed this season or next season
The only issue with current Mavs starting 5 is that PJ and DJJ can't hit their 3s consistently, otherwise great group together.
@@fringe_minority absolutely! I mean they won against top teams despite their bad shooting nights and if the 3s are falling they can beat anybody. They need a Jeremy grant type of player and another consistent offensive threat from the bench
@@fringe_minority yeah. Hardaway, Kleber and Powell have been regressing/stagnating the last few years. If they can mash Josh Green as a 3 & D guy into the new crew post trade deadline the Mavs have the ability to beat just about any team in the league.
We definitely saw a big dropoff last game with lively out in terms of center play. The warriors playing small ball with green and lively out who are probably two of the best quick defenders the Mavs have def hurt them in that game.
There's something really dubious about the plus-minus stat. To render the plus-minus stat truly significant, we would need some method by which to quantify the extent to which the composition of the remaining team changes, such as through substitutions, whenever the player being analyzed exits the court. Essentially, if the composition of the team changes significantly whenever the player exits the court, it becomes challenging to accurately determine the player's impact. For example, if the entire team more or less gets swapped out every time the player we are are analyzing leaves the court (say by bringing out the entire bench), then the plus-minus statistic loses its meaningfulness completely because now the player leaving is tantamount to just assessing another team altogether! So plus-minus has to be tempered by a measurement of how constant the rest of the team you're looking at even is.
Yeah but over 5 years you would assume that such hyper specific irregularities would average out. What you're suggesting is true for any metric. For example for ppg if the 2nd best player is injured, the ppg would increase without player quality increasing. I think plus minus in combination with on-off is a much more holistic stat than most other stats, but ofc it is not perfect and should not be used in isolation
RAPM adjusts for this by accounting for who was on the court. If Malik Beasley plays all his minutes with Giannis, he will have a great on/off split. However, if you look at Beasley minutes without Giannis, the Bucks probably played worse than in comparison to Giannis minutes without Beasley. From this you can deduce that Giannis probably deserves more of the credit for when they share the court and play well. This is an incredibly noisy stat, but over large sample sizes like multiple seasons, it should be more reliable.
If you look at 3-year RAPM, Luka is well outside the top 50 and is situated in between… Cam Johnson and Malik Monk. The top two players unsurprisingly are Embiid and Jokic. This is incredible, as it means that if the NBA just stopped recording statistics altogether, I could still tell that Embiid and Jokic are the two best players.
If you look at other similar one number impact metrics (RPM, EPM) they will have Luka rated very highly, but this is because they generally use the box score numbers as a prior, which “nudges” the numbers towards what the creators believe should be correct.
For example, even if the Bucks actually played better in Beasley and non-Giannis minutes than in Giannis and non-Beasley minutes, these models will chalk it up to noise and still give most of the credit to Giannis, under the assumption that any player averaging 30 and 10 is usually pretty good. This helps stabilize the numbers over a small sample size towards reasonable estimates, and these models generally perform a lot better than basic RAPM. However, it introduces a lot of bias when picking the prior. RAPM in its purest form is unbiased.
Whether this means Luka’s box score metrics are overrated, or whether it is due to noise is impossible to tell. However, over such large sample sizes I do think such a disparity is quite alarming. Of note, James Harden’s 2018-21 stretch still had him in the top 10 in the NBA in RAPM, playing a very similar style alongside other ball dominant stars (Paul, Westbrook). For all of Luka’s greatness, I don’t think he’s yet to approach the heights Harden did, who was much more efficient than Luka.
@@kobewankenobi8926 oh thanks for the info. I did not know that. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks!
That means jokic plus minus is fools gold. Because he only plays with starters.
@@Grind2Excellence Won a ring with fool's gold...Jokic is fine. We've seen him with bad teammates and he was still an impact monster.
If anything, it is that Dallas/Doncic is hampered by poor roster construction. Doncic would play with the starters more if his best teammates were wings/centers instead of ballhandling guards.
It's not that confusing if you watch the team, it's roster construction. He's had the absolute worst Center in the league starting for years, now compare that to his numbers now with Gafford/Lively rotation. It was a team full of guys like DFS who were just spot up shooters, and surprise, they couldn't create offense or shots without Luka. Luka masked a lot of roster deficiencies
Literally everything you just said supports a big on off plus minus differential for someone carrying the team so hard like Luka has, which was NOT the case here. A team that can't create shots without Luka should be much worse without him, which was NOT the case from the stats. Now that he has more competent teammates, the on off differential should be less, but it's the opposite. Not really sure you understand the metrics being assessed in the video.
If the roster construction was poor the on-off numbers would be +10-15
As someone who has watched a lot of Mavs games this year, I do actually think the Mavs/Luka need to run more plays and have more off ball motion in order to really maximize the offense. There’s too much ISO ball, and while sure it’s impressive when Lika single-handedly creates 2 points on an ISO, u can get those same 2 points off of just having more motion in the offense. I mostly blame Jason Kidd (Mavs Coach) for this because he lets Luka and Kyrie play ISO so much instead of making them run more plays and be involved in off-ball actions. I agree that Luka could be significantly more effective if her was moving off ball while Kyrie had the ball and vice versa, but both players love going ISO
I bet his on \ off is much better this year since the trades. His roster construction has been horrific.
it is , his BPM and VORP has been jumping ever since the deadline / also when his team got healthy
@@IMGhost589 Is influenced a lot by teammates and Who you play against... as an example if "said player" misses 4 games but all are against minessota, Boston and other top teams he'll have Better On/off Numbers than someone that sit out 4 games against Detroit and Washington where his team might even have won those games.... box +/- Is a flawed stat but can give some insight sometimes
@advancedapathy1531 last year team construction was out this worldly bad ... no defense all offence (if even that cof cof dwight Powell starting cof cof). They had a decent team in his second and 3rd season but porzingis couldnt stay on the floor and then when he came back wasn't the same efficiency wise and since he was a dive he wanted still to Chuck up shots for no reason.... Rick Carlisle had to play Boban marjanovic 30 Min in a playoff game bc kristaps didnt was to dominate in the post and take fadaways all game... brunson wasn't a star until last 8 games of the season where he averadged 18 a game and continued that streack in the playoffs but untill then he was a good starting pg
Granted the Mavs haven't made great moves around Luka until recently but you also have to cut the Mavs a little bit of slack cause as evidenced by Luka's play style a team really, really has to find players with the correct mindset to play with Luka. He's not the easiest teammate to play with given his offense dominance and lack of defense as evidenced by the vid.
@advancedapathy1531 Your very first paragraph of your argument already shows that you know nothing about the mavs. Brunson wasn't all star level when he was on the mavs. THJ is an exceptionally streaky shooter who provides negative value outside of when he's shooting well. Saying that THJ is on a good contract just shows that you don't know anything about the mavs. Josh Green has been a solid shooter, but other areas of his game weren't good enough to be a consistent bench piece until this season. Seth Curry is just bad at everything outside of shooting 3s. He's also no longer on the roster.
DFS was indeed a solid 3/4, but he's no longer on the team. Maxi is okay as a bench piece, but he hasn't been consistently healthy for a few years now. Tingus Pingus was never healthy and has publicly admitted to not putting in the effort.
Saying the mavs have had good rim protection and finishing just ends the debate with you, really. That's patently false, and anyone who knows anything about the mavs will laugh at you for saying that.
The mavs won against a Jazz team that was falling apart, again you reveal your ignorance.
Jokic has had a more talented and well constructed roster for more years than Luka has, sure some of those years were ravaged by injuries.
The reason why Jokic has such otherworldly on/off numbers is because of Malone's rotations and the nuggets roster construction.
On the defensive segment you missed on his post defense. He's elite at that. Big wings have tried to take him into the post and some centers too just to either hit a brick wall (not really a wing but watch the clip of Avdija trying to power through Luka on the dribble at the arc and bouncing back to the ground causing a turnover while Luka just stands there, it's hilarious) or at least get contained. Dude is not agile on defense but he's strong as a bull.
Mind the Game Pod just dropped EP.3 yesterday, now we have Thinking Basketball. Wouldn't it be nice if we could have them drop a video every other day 😆
I would to see them (Lebron, JJ) breakdown a specific player's game, or a specific team (one of the NBA champions would be nice) for a whole episode.
Having thinking basketball and mind the game on the same day would be fantastic
I feel like mark Cuban needs to hire Ben Patrick (KneesOverToesGuy) to train Luka.
He doesn't need to be explosive, or living above the rim for his game to work, but a healthy balance of injury proofing, conditioning, and strength could keep this guy in the top of MVP voting for the remainder of the 2020s.
It always looks like he is reserving energy (off ball, on defence, etc) to use it all for when he is most effective - with the ball in his hands.
It just feels like he is an attitude adjustment, and a consistent workout routine away from being a multiple time MVP
very true!
Talking about balance and strenght like he is not the strongest pg by land slide and can back up majority of SF out there.
Didn't Cuban sell the team?
@@gospaironija2762 He isn't he strongest, he is just a heavy 6"7'. He clearly doesn't care much about conditioning since even Jokic, who has a similar body type to luka, runs like a mf all the time and is lightyears ahead of Luka is production and impact.
Luka ain't my MVP 'til he stops skipping leg day
Do a vid on production vs impact on the top MVP candidates this year. I'd love to see where SGA fits into this same analysis.
0:10 Thanks for letting us know the first 10 seconds wasn't in slo-mo.
If you watch the games...past 4 seasons there was countless times Luka left the game and the team didnt know how to score...one instance (or more) was in the playoffs where the man couldnt even sit on the bench for more than 2 mins before his team was blowing leads
that rockets logo in the beginning of the video is sick
I do find this interesting however you can’t deny his impact to the team and the fact he deserves serious MVP consideration. He makes the game look so easy on offense. Also Steph is otherworldly lol
Really appreciate the middle of video where you articulate what i think many of us have felt watching Luca and kyrie in particular - the my turn/your turn effect. Definitely makes sense that it's thanks to Luca's stagnant off-ball performance & how attached he is to isolation play even when he gets the ball *back* later in a possession. He's amazing at individual scoring, and can create great for teammates in a couple very specific ways... But as good as he is at that stuff, he's quite ineffective in other key offensive scenarios an NBA team needs to run to be on top in today's game.
As a Mavs fan it is perplexing to see how Luka and Jokic have such distinct on/off numbers yet it feels like they are the two best players on the planet. Though I think that Luka's improvement on the defensive and his chemistry with Kyrie Irving will show a different story in this year's playoffs.
Luka isn’t near Jokic
@@Lukas7Lonestarcorrect Luka is better
@@MavDon-qc9tc😂😂😂 Luka is ball hogg who doesn't let his temmates play...Jokic is better!
Jokic is far easier to fit into a lineup where he isn't getting every possession with the ball.
If the stats for jokic and luka stay the same next year, luka is mvp, but this year, because of what happened last year and bc of the sitting, jokic is mvp, a closed case, except for mabye an abismal last stretch for jokic
But hasn't it been the last third of the season? It seems, besides a minor 4 or 5 game slip, once the lineup has been fully intact, the team has gelled and Luka's production has matched his impact.
it has...but that doesnt' fit their narrative.
The collection of players that play to each others strengths with complementary skill sets, unselfishness, and ball movement will always triumph over individual brilliance. This is the heart of the Luka mystery, and much of it is by his own choice.
With the blessing of hindsight it is obvious that he did not allow Brunson to do as much as he was capable of when they shared the court. You could argue that Brunson wasn’t deserving of more at the time, but then you’d have to explain how the same thing is happening now with proven superstar Kyrie Irving when he shares the floor with Luka.
Luka’s greatest weapon lends itself to his greatest weakness. The fact that he CAN do everything on the floor with the basketball in his hands makes him feel like he MUST do everything on the floor with the basketball in his hands.
Until he corrects that weakness, the story with him will remain the same.
Mavs were an absolute shithouse with 0 creation outside of Luka and Brunson all those years until they traded for Dinwiddie, and Brunson was a 2nd round draft pick who still needed a lot of development. If the ball wasn't in Luka's hands there was no winning the game, period.
What he needs is a secondary creator and ball handler (kyrie) and some big athletic bodies that can play defense and score inside (Washington, Exum, Gafford, Lively) with 3pt shooters. That's exactly what they've had since February and the Mavs are on track for a 61 game season based on their play since they made these trades.
Do that for playoffs.
Luka`s play on both sides is on another level when matters most.
😂 funny to see after game 2
No, he doesn't.
He needs to focus on defense next season
@@leandro6234 Against Thunder and Wolves, he was great defender. Not against Celtics.
this comment got old
Oddly enough, he was behind Irving and wasn't exactly that great this playoffs.
Super informative as always
To Answer your question:
It's important to know this is his sixth year in the league. A sample size of 5 years of a team driving through rebuilds it's not gonna look 2 good. His roster was not quite there in my opinion. His best roster is the present one and even now isn't being used as well as it could (at times)...
You're comparing retired players and some older like giannis who is relatively late in his career compared to Lukac (cp3, steph).
If you do this graph in 10 years i bet he'll be in that elite company, bet.
(edit)
all you've said is fire, i'd also like to see him improve in his involment as you've described it. If he gets that running this stats gonna look absurd haha. Good video man really enjoyed it
The Luka system works well and Irving is an all-star that leverages it when Luka is on the bench.
The 2 superstars of the team plays the same role.
Brundson also leverages it, but indeed also exploits by himself at NYK
Are you trying to compare Brunson to Luka?
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289he’s comparing Brunson to Kyrie
@@mod7065 kyrie is so much better than Brunson was.
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289 true but he’s comparing their roles next to Luka. Off-ball threats when he is in. And Ball-dominant creators that fill the offensive void when he’s out.
Bro just dropped "three body problem" out of nowhere hahah
It’s more like the fat body problem. U can’t be running around with double chins and expect to be a two way player and a good off ball player. That requires the player to be in shape.
@@Mynipplesmychoiceyeh there’s no reason for Luka to not get in better shape
Unless the teams play style changes, I can see his career mirroring Hardens to a T. He’s currently in the “Dwight Howard” era. Where the team added another superstar to play alongside him. That lasted a few years but they mainly toiled in the 3-6 range in the standings.
The next era would be the D’antoni era. Surround him with elite shooters and defenders. Only role players. Luka would still play a heliocentric style but the role players would simply catch and shoot his passes. And make up for his defense.
Hoping he gets used more off ball so he doesn’t go down that path.
Maybe you should check the rotation with Luka on/off the court to understand the +/- thing. Joker playing with 3 starters at least all the time. Luka playing with most of the bench... while Kyrie playing with the starters
thank you, finally someone notices
@@Tantibus7 I just watch basketball and recently noticed that +/- on twitter. Apparently D White is the best player on the world... it has nothing to do with the other 4 players he is sharing the court with
This is just incorrect, jokic plays with the bench consistently. He’s out there with Braun, Watson, Reggie and maybe one starter every game. Especially when zeke is injured (frequently) and because DJ barely plays (e.g. no backup center).
@@splev8111 Lol this is just not true. Jokic play without his starters for 5 years and still put up a 10+ box minus, you just can't accept the fact that Jokic makes his team play better than luka will ever do.
@@zatzu9618 pretty stupid take. You got any other "facts" you'd like to share? 🤣
I wish he'd learn from his best friend Jokic and the Nuggets about all their movement and how they're all threats off ball. Fantastic video Ben. It explains so much.
Try watching him play, maybe?
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289 Luka rarely a threat off ball, it's a fact. maybe you should hide your bias for once and admit luka has weaknesses
@@langszlol it’s not bias, try watching the mavs when luka doesn’t have the ball, it’s pretty brutal, he has to be on ball for them to be successful.
@@ssjohnson23they literally look like a good team too when Kyrie/Brunson plays without him. Y'all just love riding on his meat as an absolute fanboy 😂😂
@@judyclarkson5887you think the mavs look good when it’s only kyrie??? Just no. Kyrie looks great everyone else doesn’t. They keep passing back to Luka and kyrie because they can’t make their own plays. That’s not Lukas fault
1. He has a +7.6 on/off swing. The team is negative in net rating in minutes with him off floor.
2. They are 3-6 without him
3. They have battled a lot of injuries this year. Now even Dereck Lively got hurt.
OK that's nice and all but we are looking at *5 YEAR ON/OFF* not this season alone...
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810brunson been a 6 man for 3 years
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810
Why are we factoring in a 20 year old, 21 year old Luka and 22 year old Luka into how his production isn’t “impactful” anyone with eyes knows Luka has played like the best player in the league this season
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810 Cause Mave have always been a really bad team except for now. Look at both on and off stats. Mavs are big time in minus when he's off the floor and plus 4 when he's on. Luka had Dwight Powell as a center for 5 years lol So, ofcourse he's not gonna be +18 like Curry cause curry has always had a stacked team. Look at the differential when he's on and off the floor. MJ at Mavs wouldn't fare any better cause mavs have been THAT bad.
@@injusticeanywherethreatens4810Let’s talk about it. What players did he have exactly? Don’t even say Kyrie he didn’t even play half of a season last year so go on
You're comparing Luka's 5 years in the league with the best 5-year stretch in other players' careers. Seems a bit skewed. Best 5 years is when legends will have their teams fully assembled around them, and exclude the building the team years.
bron's on/off from 09 to 17 was +15
jokic's on/off from 21 to now is +16
steph's on/off from 14 to 19 was +17
luka's on/off THIS SEASON is +7.7 (career high)
you're welcome
@@oliviercolletaz5841 All good, but the whole premise of this video and your response is a misunderstanding of what the box +/- is and how it should be used. How it should NOT be used is as a cross-team player v player comparison which is how both you and the "Thinking" Basketball poster are using it. It is a stat that is meaningful to the internal structure of your roster is constructed and how the coach is handling the rotation--not something to be compared with other players and teams, who each have their reasons for why they play the rotations they do. Perhaps the reason for the difference is not what I suggest, but that doesn't justify this interpretation which is just an attempt to hate on a player who makes you feel threatened because he's gonna whup your favorite team while laughing his ass off. And that's 90% of this whole advanced stat nonsense--people who don't understand how a stat is calculated, what it's used to measure, etc. pontificating on what that means about their favorite player (when the advanced stat suits them) and what it means about the player that threatens their favorite player's status (when the advanced stat has potential for negative spin, as is the case here).
@@Tophergr8 the fact you convinced yourself you're not hard coping is mind-blowing to me
Anyway have a good day sir
@@oliviercolletaz5841 when you can't refute the argument, name call--thanks for taking the mask off
@@Tophergr8Hilarious how quickly that goal post shifted
YESSSSS BEN'S PLAYER ANIMATIONS ARE BACKKKKK
Plus minus is a flawed stat due to some teams playing their starting lineup and bench lineups completely separate and some running staggered lineups where a few of the best players are on the court at all times.
Facts. With the way the mavs are built and how their rotations are, plus minus is pretty flawed in trying to gauge the impact Luka has
people cant comprehend this though so its like talking to the wall
That's why thinking basketball is just a basketball 'word salad' channel
Every stats has its flaws. That is why when analysing a team or a player we should look at many different advanced stats and compare them, to see where are the flaws and where are the strengths of each one, in order to paint a more accurate picture of a player/team
Every stat is flawed. So ppl should WATCH THE ACTUAL GAMES. The eye test proves all and gives you all the information that stats can't even point out accurately
The issue is the style. Plaining simple. I judge basketball players not on how good they are and at an all-time level, but their style. Westbrook is better than Klay Thompson, but Klay Thompson's style is much better for a team than westbrooks. These ball dominant dudes have to go away lol. They ruin pickup basketball
Man, this channel really lives up to the name. Even in subjective points that could be perspective, he renders enough evidence that you have to say 'hm, good points'.
Celtics fan here....This is the best video in the NBA commentary world (I watch a lot of NBA vids). Ben is head & shoulders the best in the business. Worlds better than Timpf, KOC, Zach Lowe, Windy, etc etc... I'm looking forward to the Thinking Basketball or Ben's vids this season.
1:07 paul george tips it but somehow turns into an extra dribble for luka
Dude, I love the labels on in game footage ‘switch’, ‘double’ etc !!
Why is Jokic not included in the list of players with multiple top 5 mvp finishes?
To get people like you to comment 🤷♂
No, its cause he only finned second once, other 2 he won, and this year he wins again, so the list is correct:))))
@@owmegwoagm Thinking Basketball is above such theatrics. Likely just an honest mistake.
@@dariusdragomir9414 What are you talking about? Winning it twice means he finished top 5 both times. That right there is more than once. Add in last year's 2nd place finish and that's 3 times
@@adhithram i mean sure, u can think of it like that, and the list is wrong
I think its largely because he is usually playing with mostly bench players when brunson/kyrie is sitting, who most of the time misses shots and he ends up just equalizing the deficiencies of his teammates. He is mostly paired up with powell for example in his first 5yrs who gives up points so easily.
Yep.
Go watch mavs games and when Luka is off and Kai is demanding the ball or also off you will see the offense is so painful to watch
No it’s not they play faster and he gets players involved a lot of player play better with Kyrie on the floor and no Luka
@@elislifestyle4605they do not play better with kyrie only. Luka has the ball more because he’s better at scoring and play making than kyrie. Not because suddenly players get much better with kyrie
@@elislifestyle4605 No Kyrie does not "get players involved" at least not as much as Luka does. When Luka is off the floor Kyrie is mainly playing iso ball while using his teammates to get the switches he wants.
1. It's because this graph is about 5 year sample while picking the best 5 year span of the player.. But in case of Luka this season is only his 6th season not many years to cherrypick .. It means players who already played 15-20 years have bigger sample to choose from.
2. On/Off or Plus/Minus is still a team stats.. Most of the time superstars will have their best On/Off seasons in the years they have a contender/championship caliber team.. The better your team is the better your Net rating will be.
3. Luka has to play his first 5 years with Dwight Powell as the Mavs main center who plays most of his minutes along side Luka.. Even if Luka is dropping 30-40 pts a night if his starting Center has zero paint protection giving opponents layup lane, it's no use.. This year is Luka's 1st year where Luka is playing alongside good rim protectors and his On/Off is also increased.. It's not a coincidence.
I've seen Zaza Pachulia with much better Plus-minus and on-off stats with different teams. According to some people that means Zaza was better 😄
The truth is that the stat is flawed and can't be used to measure every single individual holistically.
One example why it's the case here is because - Luka and harden command so much attention that whole defensive adjustments are geared towards stopping them.
Once they sit, defenses have no idea what to expect.
There is simply a limited amount of information you can load into your defense as a coach, and these players cause overload.
+ tiring the best defenders, +matching best defensive combos to their minutes and a bunch of other stuff skews these stats.
If that wasn't the case dallas wouldn't be on pace of being one of the worst teams in the league without him.
Also, Luka just plays better and more focused against better defences.
Check his stats against top 10 defenses and it becomes apparent why his stats jump in the playoffs as well.
I think Ben is right about possible explanations for Luka's on / off numbers:
1) Poor defence.
2) Redundancy.
3) Noise.
These three factors add up.
The fact that the Mavs are 3-6 without him and he carried the team to a respectable number of wins despite injuries on the team conveys his value.
It´s pretty simple: the Mavericks are not able to utilize him properly even though he´s a generational talent and a top three player in the world. Luka is resposibe for his numbers and not for what happens when he sits on the bench.
Watch it the other way around. The mavs without him play on a certain level and then this unbelievable player comes in and the coach isn´t even able to capitalize on that, they don´t play better. Lukas fault? I doubt it.
It’s not just that Luka isn’t the best defender. It’s that having Kyrie and Luka in the floor at the same time tends to cause defensive mismatches. When it’s just Kyrie, Luka is replaced with a better defender.
Love the other points you made though. Great video.
Reason why Plus Minus is misleading is because the individual's stat is affected by the team around him. Any players can have positive plus minus even when their performance is bad when they have a great team around them. During the KP years, it was a miracle they even made the playoffs twice with KP being constantly injured and Brunson was still terrible his first 3 years in the league, the 2nd best player was actually THJ and he got injured a lot too. During that 2022 WCF run, Brunson was just starting to bloom, but the rest of his team were proven to be non starters when they were traded to other teams. That makes that WCF run even more impressive. Last year was an even bigger disaster as the team around him were just lackluster performers, JaVale, Dwight, and Wood were his starting Cs and barely even registering minutes this season, Spencer was his 2nd best teammate (who is not even playing tons of minutes when traded to the Nets and now with the Lakers). But yet, they were still 3rd in the Western Conference before the Ky trade. And the reason why they didn't make the POs was the Mavs FO decided to tank and get Lively in the draft. This year, he is with an injury prone team, Mavs starters pale in comparison in minutes combined when compared to other teams, but when everyone is healthy, they are actually a 65 win pace team. Best indicator of his impact is PIE which shows that he is a top 5 player in the league. The other top 5 in that chart have 50 plus winning records but also has way more combined minutes with their starters than Luka has. I think Luka is going to surprise us all in the POs, and this current team of his (that has only became healthy lately) will be a revelation in the coming playoffs.
I've never seen a player carry as much as Lucas. This dude literally makes the ball bend the law of physics and hover for half a second
This is ridiculous. Lukas on/off metrics have been poor for the overall season because of heavy injuries, Kidd staggering starters and playing Luka heavy minutes in general with bench players who have been extremely poor for the entirety of the season. But when you look at Luka on/off metrics since the trade deadline and since they finally got healthy his on/off metrics are LITERALLY the best itl. Last 15 games they were +8.3 on and a - 19.5 without luka. These guys don’t understand how +/- and on/off works
Ok mavdon
If anything, his on off SHOULD BE BETTER if his roster is INJURED A LOT. KG had trash teammates and his on off are insane no matter his team.
Idk how people are shilling Luka's post allstar run when he's had such a weak schedule
@@kingdinodragonite3470 HE AVERAGED 44 minutes FOR A MONTH with half his team out. HE was off the court for like 4 minutes a game 🫵🏽😭
@@kingdinodragonite3470 that’s cause Lukas bench plays tons of garbage time minutes
I feel like many people overlook this, how a player impacts the game that don't necessarily show up in the stats. You can have 2 players with similar stats but one makes their team better and the other makes their team worse. One achieves those stats in a way that builds the teams overall approach and another might do so in a way that's actually to their teams detriment.
Some things like the +/- can even be deceiving cause it can be subtly manipulated. One we see with people like LeBron pretty often is having many times where he's on court for his teams FTs and sits when the other team has FTs before coming back. His team is almost always better when he's not playing but it doesn't necessarily show up on a stat sheet.
Chemistry is another big thing, average players that mesh well can beat a superteam with no chemistry much of the time cause it's a team sport, not a 1v1 contest. And it only takes one player to throw off a teams rhythm and chemistry, even a phenomenal player.
I think Joker and Jordan had the same question in their first few years in that they had great numbers but their teams were not the best in the league and they only started to win after their teams learned to complement them with other great players and took away their usage and spread some of the responsibilities with their roster
When the teams just realized it, they become unstoppable
Wait you mean after Jokic got aaron gordon and they built a better team around him?
@@saiwaqa2573 have you seen ph Washington play defense since hes joined the mavs? Dude is elite. With a whole season in his role playing his level, they have the bruce bowen, stacey augmon, Shane battier level prototype. Gafford and lively the 2 best fg% in the league. Tim Hardaway actually holds this team back. He was the second best mav in the bubble. He has players now.
@@agayactornamedmichaeldougl6289 I think you replied to the wrong person. What does this have to do with my comment?
@@saiwaqa2573 Gordon wasn't even considered a top 10 Forward in the league when they got him, and still isn't. His level is an above average starter, that's it.
Fascinating critique. Honestly, I think Luka should watch it.
I feel vindicated after tonight
Best analysis of Luka’s game I have ever seen! You showed some of his weaknesses that I had not noticed yet. It is interesting that while some of those weaknesses are out of his total control, like his vertical, some can be addressed through the team’s player development program, training and coaching yet he has shown no improvement throughout the year. I wonder why?
On the +/- I think one reason we don’t see a big difference between his on/off floor is that Dallas has been and still is a mediocre shooting team in terms of efficiency (aside of Kyrie and the 2 centers). Right before the trade deadline Dallas had players like THJ, G Williams and Josh Green all shooting 41%. My point is Luka could make Dallas a much better team offensively if he was surrounded by players that could consistently shoot above 45-46%, if that was the case he could be averaging above 12-13 assists per game since he consistently creates wide open shots for them. Disclaimer: I am no analyst just a fan so my take could be totally off the ballpark
Why the hell steph is so far 😂
I’m assuming cuz obviously he’s a great player but his three ball leads to bigger leads therefore a better plus minus.
Warriors read and react system depends on his existence, when Steph is off the floor they cannot perform at the same level at all.
@@ozberkozyet 9-3 without him in playoffs and he’s -0.1 OnOff this year (one of worst of any top25 player in nba this year)
@@superdopehiphop Steph is the reason the warriors are not dead last every year in the standings, in 2020 he had broken his wrist they were dead last, since he was out, the next year in 2021 they were 6th seed before Steph got injured and they fell to the play in spot. He produces the most wins for a team compared to anyone else
@@da1boij284 no he doesn’t. Win Shares and WS/48 say otherwise. They’re literally 9-3 in Playoff games without him since 2016! Name another star ever you can say that about.
As a mav's fan and luka apologist, I think you're right on the money when it comes to his off-ball offensive play. He's often a spectator when Kyrie has the ball. And you also showed a frequent problem he has in some of your clips, where he rotates early and isn't in position for ORB or follow-up play. Fantastic video.
This video is just looking stupider and stupider by the hour. I look forward to the follow up on this video where "stat nerds" need to learn to ignore statistical outliers, and pay more attention to the dozens of other metrics that paint a different picture.
@ThinkingBasketball This is an incredible insight! Teaching the basketball community what winning basketball is all about. Well done 👏
You dont make much sense, i dont care about numbers hes got major production as he has impact, he got them to west finals didnt he
Please do sabonis next. I feel like most people look past his defense because of his stats, but he gets hunted on defense. He is always being put in the pick and roll and rarely makes the right decision. He gets lost or hedges too far out. He had one of the worst triple doubles in nba history when it comes to +\- this year. It would be ok if he were scoring absurd points like luka to make up for it, but he doesnt. He struggles to score and create shots for himself. He is scared to shoot the midrange and any possession he takes more than 2-3 dribbles on ends badly. Him losing the ball ramming into defenders to try and draw the foul
Luka had dwight powell and reggie bullock starting the first 5 years of his career, +\- is a team stat too that doesn’t fully show the impact that a player has. What was the point here to try and prove the mavs would be better without him and he doesn’t contribute to winning? Ask any mavs fan who has watched every game, luka used to be the only player keeping us outta the lottery
This
Kyrie av 32 8 6 without Luka this year. Brunson had them up 2-1 in playoffs when he hurt. Always blame his teammates.
@@xavierb9061kyrie is the first player to actually be this good. Brunson had his moments but ultimately the mavs didn’t want to pay him more than the Knicks. He was also not as good as he is now.
Dawg did you even watch the video?? One of the categories of analysis is literally that these stats are just NOISE, and he concludes it by saying Luka is a top 15 offensive player of all time. Finish the video before you comment 😭
@@smooth415Im convinced no one watches the videos no more. I have already seen decent amount of comments that im sure of, havent seen the video.
I want to hear more breakdowns about their current run. I think they unlocked prime Mavs this year. I am curious what Thinking Basketball's analysis of the "how" is.
Plus minus is the dumbest stat ever 😂😂.
EG: you can have 40 points 20/20 Fg 0 Turnovers and if your team loses by 20 ...you have -20 .
In the Other hand you can have 0 points 0/20 Fg 10 Turnovers and if your team wins by 20 you have +20
Its actually a good stat, because it shows everything that other statistics hide.. i can see that you are assuming that somebody who has a good shot percentage and no direct turnovers is a good players.. but you miss to see how good somebody makes blocks how good is his movement off the ball, is he dragging other players, does he make good passes outside assists, is he playing defence at all etc. Thats why basketball is more than just the statistics
Yeah thats not how it plays out over a 5 year stretch. But I get it, Luka is the clear outlier amonst players of the same caliber so we need them excuses on why on/off splits dont mean anything.
You're the dumb one here, doesn't even know what advance stats mean in basketball lol.
@frankj3676 Why do they mean anything?
KCP, for the past two years, has had a higher on/off than any year of Shaq and both of Lebron's Miami MVP seasons.
It really does drive me crazy that he doesn't play more off ball, but I think he just works so hard night in and night out to torch defenders in isolation that he tries to save a little bit of energy by giving Kai the ball and letting him go to work.
Did you see the play against the Pacers when Luka came off the screen? He could've immediately jumped into the shot off the catch, but he didn't. He waited for the defender to catch up and took a tougher shot that he missed. That's not smart.
@@urbaindelva7869 Usually he waits for them to catch up so he can lull them to sleep and then blow by. But yeah, there are some questionable shots he takes out there for sure. I think he takes some of them to get oohs and ahhs from the MVP voters lol.
This reminds me of Wilt vs. Russell. On the stat sheet, Wilt had more production. But Russell had a bigger impact, he made a bigger difference for his team, giving them 11 championships as opposed to Wilt’s 2.
But Wilt's production dipped in the playoffs. Whereas Luka's production remains the same or improves.
We shall see when it's all said and done.
You can't put Russell's 11 championships solely down to him. He played in a stacked Celtics team, despite winning 11 he was only finals MVP 5 times. if Wilt played in that Celtics team he would also have many more championships.
@@MR12AMAZING Bill didn't win a single finals MVP, the award didn't exist back then. He won 5 regular season MVPs though, one more than Wilt's 4. The point, however, is that Russell made his team much better, Wilt did not. Wilt has even said this himself: "If I played with Cousy and the others I would have taken a lot of what they were good at away from them, Bill didn't do that". When Wilt played with the stacked Lakers (first superteam) they only won 1 championship and Wilt famously became known as a loser who only put up big numbers and couldn't contribute to winning.
There is a thinking basketball video on the topic where Ben demonstrates how Russell had a much more positive impact on his team than Wilt did, even in Wilt's insane 61-62 season. Since he, in part, uses advanced statistics, the video is called "Russell's statistical case over Wilt". I recommend watching it if you're interested!
Those who aren't just complete casuals already knew a lot of this, but thank you for laying it all out so eloquently.
A large majority of his fan base are people who don’t actively watch basketball and work for a living so they don’t have time unless laid out as such
Answer : when Luka is off, Kyrie is running the show
Staggered rotation affect this stats so much that I'm surprised someone uses it
Kyrie can hold his own when Luka is off the floor… that’s all it is.
It was like this before Kyrie too
So could brunson, who dropped 40 n had mavs up 2-1 inplayoffs no luka
Well the video also said that this was the same before Kyrie
@@freakyfridays135 Brunson was there before Kyrie.
You’re a ding dong
I'd love to see a video like this of Lauri Markkanen's game if possible. Love your content!
The Mavericks are the team with second most injuries in the league this season, so Luka has had to play a bunch of games over 40 minutes or more to win at all. Kyrie didn't play 22 games, Green didn't play 22 games, Exum didn't play 25 games, Lively didn't play 20 games, and Maxi Kleber didn't play 37 games, not to mention the others. Regardless of all the injuries, Luka still kept team to the connection to the top 7 in the West, which means that he used a ton of energy, so if he didn't spend so much energy in offense, his +/- would be a much higher in +. We can see the difference from before and now after the trade, when he finally got teammates who they're right for him and they're helpful, now he uses less energy in offense, so now he have much more energy and he can play defense and by the way, now he play decent defense, so now his numbers and stats are changing rapidly on better. Since his rookie season, he always had to spend a lot more energy to win because he didn't have a real help, so that literally means he carried the team on his back. The statistics show that the team lost when Luka was not on the court, i.e. it was in the red, but when he played, the team was in the plus and winning. Since the trade, for the first time in his career, he has a good team, a real good teammates who are compatible with his game, maybe they need just another good shooter who can play good defense and is consistent. Tim is not that player precisely because he does not have consistency.
on/off is a bad stat. it's about rotations and roster construction, not individual skill. you can see that quite obviously in a case study like Jayson Tatum who went from +16.5 in 21-22 to +0.4 this season. Tatum is at least as good as he was 2 years ago. the only difference is his teammates/rotation.
Luka reminds me of other superb offensive iso players who were mediocre on defense. Melo, AI, Harden among others. AI demonstrated the template for that: you need a world class defense behind you to make it work and you need to have superb conditioning. So AI was able to make it to the Finals in one year because he had that defensive team, excellently coached, and off the charts usage rate that didn't cost them in efficiency. But most of his carrier that didn't work.
Luka is more efficient and a much better passer than all of them
@@deadlylightningspirit4295Harden was the same kind of passer Luka is…
They’re just too ball dominant and stay in front of the defense. Kobe explained their style well. It’s not a winning style
@@1708JOHNbiggest difference is luka is one of the greatest playoff performers we’ve ever seen. Which was hardens biggest fault
@@alexescutia4805Luka is not he’s had 1 good half series and was saved by Brunson
@@1708JOHN Luka is both more efficient,better passer, and doesn’t overly rely on free throws. He’s fine
Luka is top ten in steals and top 20 in rebounding as a point guard. Stop lying about his defense
This children is why you don't hyper fixate on one stat metric... you look at ALL the metrics and stats, and most importantly WATCH THE GAME, to understand how good a player is. Don't be like Thinking (moronically about) Basketball
The entire video is film breakdown dude
@@ChibiMalzahar The entire premise of this dumb video is to con stupid people into believing that Luka doesn’t impact winning, he just puts up stats… this narrative is clownish. All you have to do is look at Dallas’ win/loss record with him, vs without him.
@@ed379 I hear you. I do think ben underestimated dallas before the wcf which he admitted in a podcast. And he's a little lower on luka than some other people, or at least was. But I got the sense Lukas weird +/- and ball dominant playstyle are just interesting to explore for him, not really as indictment of Luka as a player. He talks about that on his podcast too. But mega nerds like Ben just like to talk about unique statistical patterns I don't think it's about a narrative. Also he watches tons of games like I promise he's not just picking stats out of a hat. If this were a twitter post I'd probably be on your side
Highest number of blow-bys in the playoffs ever. He bleeds twice as many points on defense as he gives on offense. This your MVP?
@@fuura6014 First of all dummy, who said anything about MVP? Second of all, he also lead his team to the NBA finals… 3rd, he’s the first player in NBA history to lead the postseason in points, rebounds, and steals.
So please explain to me with your sub 85 IQ, how his game doesn’t equate to winning?
I find it interesting that you (Ben Taylor) make an argument about part of what’s going on with Luka’s impact numbers is Kyrie and Brunson being on the court when Luka is out and those sidekicks are ball dominant players that can step in to run the offense. But in the many podcasts and videos I’ve seen of Thinking Basketball, I’ve heard it brought it frequently that Jordan’s on off impact was not special among the great players…and then rarely mention that Pippen was usually in the game (vs opponents bench) when Jordan was out much like Kyrie and Brunson.
In the 6 title years, Bulls with pippen and no MJ were only 1-5 (14 win pace) with only win against an all time worst team. With MJ and no pippen, they were 32-12 (60win pace). With both players playing they were they were 355-87 (66 win pace).
Ben, You also point to the 1994 team winning 55 games. That had an almost entirely new team than 94 and had MUCH of what would be 1996 72 win team. Swap out Horace for Rodman (relatively small impact on change)…adding Jordan to 94 team would be better than 96 team because Jordan would be two years younger.
The takeaway is that 96 team had. 13.4 net rating and 94 team had a 3.3 net rating very similar team minus Jordan in 1994 team.
He’s the most picked apart superstar in the league
33.9, 9.2rebs, 9.8 asst...that's enough production. Luka's impact on the floor changes defenses. And he's having fun. MVP.
Isn’t this just a fancy plus/minus stat? You are only as good as the players around you? I feel like if Luka didn’t impact his team in winning wouldn’t they have a the same winning percentage when he didn’t play? The Mavs have always had a losing record when he misses games. This is the kind of nonsense people use when they are hating on Luka. Because he plays so many minutes the time off the court is a small sample size that can be altered with a few good scoring bursts from his teammates when he’s off the floor.
Brother just watch the video before spouting off. Literally everything you said is addressed
You could have just said "I don't accept facts or numbers as reality, I only rely on my feelings to make opinions"
Chamberlain paradox at play again. Fascinating.
You talk about +/- when he is on/off, but you wont add that he not playing when they lead by a lot(which many players in graph do) or that he play with injury prone star players his whole career(Porz, Kyrie)+ his teammates in first unit through the years are much worse, just for *ex. Jokič(MPJ, Gordon, Murray) Curry(Durant, Klay, Draymond, Iggy)...Offcourse they have insane +/-, because they have insane best 5 players, same as Boston this year!
you cant put jokic's teammates with currys or this year boston.Nuggets players would be much worse without jokic in their team,dont think thats the case with the other two
you really trying to sneak in Curry when he was the embodiment of not playing when up. in 2016 i remember that he sat like 25% of 4th quarters even when hot that JJ podcast even mentioned it.
What are you even saying dude? If he plays with injury prone players wouldnt his +/- impact be higher? If his team is worse, that means the team's net rating should plummet more without their superstar. You are not making any sense.
Steph barely played in the 4th quarter in his 2016 run, he made the warriors go up by 20 in 3rd quarter and was able to sit out for the 4th. Steph +/- is so high because he produced winning runs for his team and was able to sit down since they are leading, he doesn't play when its a blowout or a large lead
@@davorbeljan4369 What you said makes no sense. Injury prone players miss more games. If your 2nd best player is KP or Kyrie and they are injured, the team would be worse. So how the f would his +/- be higher without his 2nd best teamate if his team is now significantly shitter without said teamate that he plays with? Your logic is broken.
two thoughts: ISO ball leads to a stagnant offense so even though luka is getting off his PnR plays, overall the team doesn’t get into the right rhythm since not everyone is always involved in the plays.
one theory i’ve had is because luka has a much slower pace than most players, his teammates can’t get into the right shooting rhythm when he kicks it out for a 3. I’d be curious to see if the mavs have a higher wide open missed 3pt percentage when he’s on the court vs off.
This is a perfect example of how stats can confuse people. Luka is an absolute monster and teams are terrified of him.
He isn’t just talking about the stats though. He spends most of the video explaining them. He also acknowledges the ways Luka is a beast.
This makes me want to go back and see how he played off ball with Dragic. The great Jonathan Tjarks said that the key for Luka and the Mavs is that ultimately he has to get better at playing off the ball
Interesting title.
The counter question would be, why would individual produjction impact wins? It rarely does.
Production is oftem determine how much you get the ball and Luka gets more of those possessions than anyone else.
Luka is a 5-2 record away from 50 wins DESPITE the team being one of the most injured. The idea he doesn't impact winning is ridiculous...
Clickbait for the haters and ragebait for the fans lmao
@@xfanatick7972 mavs have a top ten defense since their trades for PJ and Gafford. Theyve been on a roll.
Who said he doesn't impact winning
@@freakyfridays135did you bother reading the title of the video?
They’re talking about impact metrics, specifically on/off numbers. They showed how he impacts winning statistically in the video. Did you even watch?
Ben mentioned this briefly, but during the last five years the Mavs have won 60% of their games when Luka plays (195-129), and only 40% when he’s out (25-37). That’s a pretty huge difference. But it is confounding how that clashes with the on/off stats.
because morons think +/- is a true indicator of what impact a player has.
Yes, that something else is called dwight powell, maxi kleber and thj. Luka's box score numbers in the playoffs are way better than hardens.
Yeah they said that in the video thanks
@@willrobbins2550 no he didn't.
@@saiwaqa2573 12:13 you’re welcome silly
@@willrobbins2550 imagine calling me silly when you give me a time stamp that says they are slightly better than hardens when in fact they are way better than hardens...
@@saiwaqa2573 not during the harden peak that they’re referring to. If they had meant overall then yes I’d agree
Would be awesome to see each different player's place on the first graph
His bad defense and zero off-ball game are the the only things holding him back from domination. Still I like the way Jokic outsmarts his defenders better. Ball dominant players raise the floor level a lot, but they alone are the hard ceiling for the whole team.
It’s not bad defense but lackluster
@@MrJcalvino thats basically the same
@@CardOne4all no it's not. there are plenty of far worse defenders in the NBA than luka. do you categorize them all the same or do words actually have meanings?
He’s an average defender
He's not been "bad" on defense in over 2 years, and he does have an off ball game, it's just not Steph. Jesus you luka haters are nuts.
The only argument I would have is these are his first 5 years in the league. Would like to see the stats with just Jason Kidd as the coach.
Milk aged