HIMS STOCK 100X POTENTIAL? CEO AGREES!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.พ. 2024
- Does HIMS stock have 100X potential. While some investors think so, including the HIMS CEO, I'm not so sure. Let's walk through their latest financials and potential in the years ahead.
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HIMS management has done an exceptional job executing and its impressive to watch them grow and continue to take market share. If management can keep it up with both continued growth and expanding profit margins, the stock has the potential for a very attractive future. That said, there are aspects about the business model that gives me pause. What is the actual churn rate? Why are the online reviews so mediocre? Does this company really have the potential that management highlights or are they at risk of disruption? If you're interested in more compelling ideas and to follow along with my personal financial journey consider www.unrivaledinvesting.com!
One could say McDonald's "only sells hamburgers and anyone could do that" yet they built an empire 🤷♂️
Very well put!!
Quote of the year
That is true. But how many burger companies became McDonalds and how many burger companies failed? If there wasn't a chance of HIMS succeeding long term, people wouldn't be buying it. But be careful calling it McDonalds already when 99% of companies are not that. Company success rate is much higher when you have a differentiated, unique product.
But hamburgers are too hard
@@Ksalaribingo.
3X upside is well worth the risk. No one is saying that if competition starts becoming a concern you can't sell. Each piece of statistical data point described in this video refutes the concerns presented at the end. I'm in until management fails to meet expectations.
Fair enough, but by the time competition is clearly an issue, the stock price is already destroyed. The goal is to anticipate something happening before it happens. And if it's a slow drip of decreasing margins over time, at what point are you truly scared enough to sell? Longer you wait, the lower the stock price. There's significant potential upside and downside from here.
You were very bearish on HIMS in your previous video and are now still casting doubt on their business model, even though they've been executing and performing exceptionally well in the last quarters. I've been a HIMS shareholder for two years and i am absolutely convinced that this stock is one of the biggest winners long term. Never been happier. Sometimes you don't need to invent a revolutionized product to succeed, sometimes you just need to perform an old trick better than others do.
I've been a HIMS shareholder for almost 3 years now, so I did not get in at the cheapest price, was down more than 50% and now up more than 50% and will hold the stock for the next decade, if the execution stays this great. I have little to zero doubts that this will be a multibagger. People who got in at the 2022 lows are gonna see a 10x in the next 5 years probably. 100x probably unrealistic, but I don't see why they should not 10x from now in the next 10 years or more. They still have only a 3b market cap and are growing rapidly.
@@stenborm3680 exactly. Right now with 1.5 million customers they have a revenue of a billion dollars, I don’t see why they can’t get to 15 million subscribers with 10 billion dollars revenue. The potential is huge and the valuation is extremely modest. We are in for a ride of a lifetime for sure.
No, you don't need to invent a revolutionary product to succeed, but it's nice to have some kind of moat. They're selling generic products, unprofitably, to get market penetration but I doubt customers have any kind of loyalty towards them when push comes to shove in the future. The point is not that they're not executing well, but that they are vulnerable. Their model is not defensible once a sleeping giant wakes up and has them in their crosshairs.
Thanks for the shout out, friend!
Good video. If anything I am all the more bullish on HIMS after this video. Whether it does 100X isnt important. The important thing at present is they are focused, growing very well, their runway is incredibly promising. Also, one aspect you didnt touch upon is I am not too sure the old fashioned health solutions (aka insurance, deductible, copays...) may be disrupted by next generations who rely much more on their phones, and would like everything being easy and personable. I am very bullish on HIMS. At least for the next 2-3 yrs it is a very promising stock, and.... still cheappppp.
What MC do you think it should be trading for today for you to consider it “cheap”? It’s currently unprofitable losing 22m per year, bringing in 800m and trading at almost 3B. If I had 3B burning a hole in my jeans I’m not sure I’d spend it on this business, especially when compared to other opportunities.
@@Dr.Dumpnpump Net income positive last quarter. P/S is 3.2, which is very cheap for a company growing top line this fast with that large of a margin. They've been dumping all possible cash into marketing. If you believe their retention numbers they could turn that off and be extremely profitable already.
@@mattanonysaurousrex so what’s your market cap prediction by 2030? and what in their financials do you expect to improve to get there? I’m not so sure their P/S ratio matters if the only way for them to drive growth is to increase their marketing expense by equal or greater numbers. If you are expecting HIMS to become a 300B market cap i think I’d bet against that.
$HIMS, $MTTR, $ABCL and $OLPX are some of the most undervalued stocks in Wall Street right now.
Thank you.
Didn't Amazon consider entering the telehealth / pharmacy space then ultimately back out? Perhaps I'm misremembering. If so could be a good sign for HIMS that it's not so easy of a space to enter.
Yes.Your correct. And they closed the entire division. More likely Amazon would buy HIMS rather than repeat the same mistake. Similar to Amazon buying Ring after failure at developing their own home security system
Good points
You nailed it with regard to the non-existent moat. "Personalized" -- That's like if the owner of a barber shop said they can't be disrupted because the haircuts they offer are personalized. So what? Anyone could copy your playbook play-for-play. Great call you made there.
What does this company do that truly adds value and will be hard to disrupt? Its basically a website for easy access to ED meds, anxiety/depression meds, etc. Any telehealth company could easily disrupt. I think they did a good job with branding but there is no way those margins last.
Can you cover oddity? $odd
Hey, I tweeted you and asked for this video and I got it!!! I will say as a pharmacist people don't understand how cheap these generic drugs and how insane the mark up is at most pharmacies. Very few price fairly.
They need to mark up to turn a profit due to high operational costs.
@@Zendefone right but they are not the only ones doing it. Cash prices for generic drugs are sky high at Walgreens and CVS. For instance zofran 4mg ODT 30 count bottle cost about 1.80 from warehouse. Big chain pharmacies will charge about $200. GoodRx brings it down to 20-25$ which is still a massive markup.
I agree Its a Young company, and the future Can be bright or… 😅
But renember they do have cost advantage by NOT working with insurance.
They are not marking up high prices, their high margin is due to efficient operations and even with much cheaper prices as compared to physical pharmacies. They can do this because of vertical integration.
and NO INSURANCE overhead!!!!
I like your thinking about Amazon and generic medication.
this video only made me more bullish kkowing most of thr concern are addressed. Aside from customer review, i dont know if thats just loud minority sample size or true reflection of the user experience
GP:
Very few people actually understand the product markups.
Competition:
HIMS already has 3 compeitiors that are identical yet they continue to gro 50%
diversification:
as stated they should evolve business value in order to not grt disrupted. they are building platform collecting data profitability.
Agree, no moat. Risky.
this space is oversaturated what do they do better than competitor?
👍
You are very bearish on this company even in your old vids you was some what bearish but yet its up a lot since then but i respect the clarity I respect your opinion . 👍🏻
Personalized drug is more than just dosage, also composition.
There are so many of these companies what makes hims the best? roman is another one
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
Picking stocks is a risky thing to do, particularly for non-professionals. I learnt that in 2020, when I lost almost everything. But I switched to using a financial advisor and I've been returning at least $38k every month so I’ve been sticking to investing via an Advisor.
I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with ?
STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS she is whom i work with look her up..
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I leave her a message.
I wouldn’t like Management hyping up investment theses that call for 100x..
I agree. Reminds me of AMC. Now waiting for CEO to sell shares and obsessed retail holders to yell that the CEO is only selling shares to pay taxes
You don’t reject investing a stock simply because it can’t grow 100x in the next 10 years. Hims definitely can grow 5x in the next 5 years and therefore a buy for me.
5:40 it’s not personalized at all, it’s just different medications for different people with different health problems. That’s not personalized, that’s just how business is in this case. If it weren’t like this, everyone would get the same medications no matter what. Shady management
Moat ?
I would simply not bet against HIMS & HERS...
I am a semi bald man, fighting hard to keep remaining hair. Mostly these guys sell rogaine and propecia rebranded as HIMS at extravagant price. I get 180 day supply of rogaine at 1/6th cost in costco and even propecia at 1/10th cost in costco.
They sell Finasteride and you need a prescription which they provide through their physician network. It actually works unlike that cheap bs at Costco.
The numbers obviously look great...Sex sells. But they are really bad email spammers though...They send me like 2 emails per day, peddling their products (I never signed up for anything with them). I typically just mass delete my spam emails because I don't have the time to unsubscribe to each one, but finally did so with this one. I guess whatever they're doing (incl. the spamming) is working for them right now.
Clic bait, 100X is the magic word for VC.
Applesauce is fab for the esophagus and how I finally cured my heartburn. It also helps with bellyaches. It’s perfect for right before you lay down the way you feel it just soothe your esophagus. It’s wonderful.
@unrivaled @unrivaledinvesting
Can you go over TDOC big download numbers? Thanks!
CEO just went, woke and broke
Who can stop Amazon or any other pharmacy giant to replicate this model. I used to have this stock and this exact reason made me uncomfortable. I don’t own it anymore
Meanwhile, insiders are selling millions of USD in stock, so much for 80+% margins and 100-baggers...
280b Market cap!? I hope you're right