Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb | Make better decisions & avoid biases | Incerto Series #1
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 พ.ค. 2024
- In this video I cover the first book written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. To become a good decision maker one needs to be aware of biases that distort our world view. But first of all - how to evaluate if a decision is good or bad? The video covers the Hindsight Bias, Survivorship Bias, First Principle Thinking, frequency & magnitude of decisions as well as the traits of the market fool.
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The video is based on:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness - he hidden role of chance in life and in the markets
My productivity software: www.controlconsole.io/learnmore
Background music:
• Ambient Study Music To...
Chapters:
0:00 About Taleb, Summary & Incerto
3:05 Alternative Histories
3:45 Magnitude & Frequency
5:00 Hindsight Bias
5:46 Survivorship Bias
8:28 First Principle Thinking
10:35 Traits of the market fool
Hope you take something out of the video! I will post my favourite aphorisms from Nassim Talebs' "The Bed of Procrustes" on Twitter as they work better in short text than in video. If you are interested follow me: twitter.com/bPGTill
I read The Incerto in the nearly 3 years of The Pandemic Lockdown. Australia, the most aggressive response!
I started a second reading 6 months ago, in reverse (chronological) order, this time very slowly, pondering Taleb's ideas, discussing them with others, writing my own thoughts down.
I've nothing but gratitude for this gentleman, and practitioner who is also a giant in academia, despite his skepticism to institutionalized learning.
Taleb is all about the doing... taking risks and small losses by tinkering and playing with the things that really "excite" you. Ultimately, choose your Game, then put in all The Skin you can muster without blowing up. That's how I think one should read The Incerto... take the small losses of time and effort, for huge gains that continue to pay off... asymmetrical, long gamma and a superb barbell.
Finally, don't be that turkey! 😁
Great job, mate! Keep it up.
Thanks for this brief explanation.
thx for recommending some books to add to my collection
Excellent video.
I am an absolute fan of NNT, thanks
Thank you this was a perfect review. I buy this book today. Thank you till.
Great work
Great work! Keep it up
Thanks! Will do 😁
You are doing amazing work! Keep it up!
Thank you! 🙏
Your bitcoin video will age extremely well. I actually think youll help so many people with it so props to you bro
Excellent channel. Glad I found u by chance 👍
Thank you!
@@tillmusshoff No. 🙏 Thank you!
Awesome video, have heard a lot of people in the Bitcoin community talking about Nassim
Thank you and yes, that's because a lot of what Nassim Taleb says applies to Bitcoin. It's lindy, antifragile, decentral and therefore has less systemic risk, displays how volatility is not the same as risk, there is no principal-agent relationship, ...
just heard him on tim ferris, after this video i purchased the audiobook, thankyou
it‘s honestly my least favourite book of the series, but still great 👍🏻
Amazing video! May I ask what background music was used its so calming.
Thanks! Added a link to the music in the video description.
Interesting review...You look like Edward Snowden
Heard this before 😄
👍
Bro is this book worth reading.??
I'd say all 5 books of the Incerto series are worth reading. I liked Antifragile and Skin in the Game the most, but would suggest to go in order and start with this one.
@@tillmusshoff actually yesterday I bought black Swan but after reading reviews I find it somehow controversial. So i hadn't started it yet. What r ur thoughts?
Most good books are controversial. Nassim Taleb himself is extremely controversial and there are parts of him that I don't like at all and very much disagree with. There is even an excellent article articulating the two versions of Taleb: allenfarrington.medium.com/a-tale-of-two-talebs-1775dff3302b
I still think the books are absolutely worth reading, in fact I read all of them twice. Just check them out and if you don't. like them, put them aside. Also challenge his ideas yourself instead of relying on critics :)
This is poker strategy 101
To some degree it definitely is, to another degree it is not. Poker has artificial rules that make calculating probabilities possible. This does not apply to the real world where people are fooled by randomness most of the time - see the Ludic Fallacy.
The artificial rules apply to the cards but less so to the players and their reactions, tells, propensity to bluff, emotional control etc etc. I'm surprised the author made no reference to poker. Nice video btw! Thank you.
His only good book.
The background music is stupid noise and distract from the content. Why do so many people in TH-cam embed the moronic background noise?
Because most people like it. Not distracting to me for example.
@@tillmusshoff thanks, that is interesting.
Bro is Elon musk talking about the book concept?