An Update From Raoul on the Geopolitical Situation and What It Means for Investors
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ย. 2024
- In this special update, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal shares with us how he’s approaching the market amid this incredibly chaotic environment. Raoul outlines several scenarios for how the Russia-Ukraine situation could play out and breaks down what war in Easern Europe means for gold, bonds, oil, and, yes, even crypto. Raoul also explains why he thinks the U.S. dollar is now more of a liability than an asset and forecasts the Federal Reserve’s next moves. This is another can’t-miss presentation that will help you understand how Raoul is thinking as he navigates these turbulent times. Recorded on March 6, 2022.
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An Update From Raoul on the Geopolitical Situation and What It Means for Investors
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Please keep these coming. This kind of fast, thoughtful analysis is what makes the Real Vision community so valuable.
Your are right! I am also looking for more smart way to invest this year, any tip?
@@rajeshupadhyay5683I'll suggest you reach out to Christine Lynn Saitta, she's a real investors prodigy and has handled my investments for over 11 months now
It's fascinating to hear that someone here employ madam Christine's services. She has been managing my investment
A CNBC news host spoke so highly of💕Christine Lynn Saitta and her loss prevention strategies been trying to get to her ever since didn’t know she was so accessible
I heard she always have a way of linking someone investment into something new and profitable?
Thanks Raoul, I always appreciate your take on these complicated macro issues.
callate
Macro? We're talking about a war!
@@markpalmer8083 geopolitical (war) is not part of the macro environment?
It speaks well of your mother that you share this with us so passionately and at no cost. Thank you, Ral :)
No cost content that he stole off Peter Ziehan.
@@ashthegreat1 thanks Winston for contributing, now call your Mother please .
@@ashthegreat1 so what?
The mark of a true teacher
If a person wants to put a halo around someone's head nothing will stop them. And if a person wants to put devil horns on someone's head nothing will stop them.
Raoul may have had incredible parents, I'm sure he also has a business strategy too. I appreciate the video in any case and realize that no one factor accounts for its "free" upload.
I love when Raoul sold his crypto (he went from 100% crypto to now suddenly having money to buy bonds/gold) he never told us about it. Instead he told us he never sold his holdings.
this guy is not solid... he is out here just saying what he see right now.. but has no future perspective that is 100% accurate.... check out mavrick of the wallstreet... he seen all this like 2 years ago n talked about it everyday
he didnt lie, 100% PAXG 👌😂
Maverick of Wall Street? BTW, if you think anyone knows how the future will be changed, you have much to learn! The Future is headed down.
Why should he tell anybody what he does with his own money ? It’s like the big banisters in 29 when they draw out all their portfolios just before the crash , gold will always hold its own , not sure about bonds because they’re backed by the government , what if we end up with a one world government , will the bonds still be viable
Thanks Raoul, appreciate you taking the time to put out your thoughts in these uncertain times. Greatly appreciated.
"Inflation is high, people are struggling with food and energy costs, so governments need to hand out money to people." Yeah that makes a lot of sense.
Nobody is saying that's the RIGHT thing for governments to do; it's just what they're LIKELY to do.
I am 41 and the oldest child but I feel like Raoul is like a big brother. At my age you know a lot with more to learn and he's the sounding board. For you young bloods out there he is like Uncle Raoul.
I appreciate the “I don’t know” statement and the complex roll through scenarios. Thanks
Raoul is saying the best outcome is division of Ukraine. This is a view of Ukraine that conforms to the Russian view: Ukraine is not really a nation at all. If Ukraine is not a nation then it will not fight. This is the view of the Russians. It is also the view of the West. It does not seem to be the view of the Ukrainians.
Never stop dreaming. Be hungry and never stop believing in your dreams. If someone can do it, then you too can do it. Be strong
Brilliant episode. Well thought out, logical, scenario based and very interesting to have laid out for the average person to understand.
I used to see Crypto as a side thing but it has proven to be a major source of passive income since I venture into it.
Understanding the concept of crypto is of great importance! Many had venture into it blindly and today crying foul.
Crypto is lucrative people are just confused because of its volatility
Crypto is lucrative people are just confused because of its volatility
I'm thinking of investing in the Crypto market but taking my time to figure out how the whole thing works
< I've been making passive income monthly from crypto for over a year tho' I prefer trading with the help of a professional broker because it saves me time and reduces the risk of losing funds in trading as we all know how volatile the market is
Great work Raoul, really appreciate your view during these uncertain times
Thankyou so much for everything you add to this amazing blockchain community!
I don't think the current war in Europe would have happened if Trump had kept his word and pulled the US out of NATO. Without US pulling the strings, Europe would have supported neutrality for Ukraine and the Minsk Accords and thus avoided the war.
Always interesting to listen to someone who brings his doubts as well as insights to the table.
👍🏻, Raoul!
I think scenario no. 4 could be the escalating China-Taiwan conflict...
Nothing to do with Russia-Ukraine - but some kind of related.
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Excellent temperament for such descriptions. Impeccable insight!
Why do bonds sound like the most risk on asset available right now? I would rather be irresponsibly long BTC than out any of my money in bonds... what binds would one hold? US? Foreign? Is there any safe haven asset available to retail?
This is why I question his motives despite an articulate explanation
He's discussing large intermediate term cash flows during flight to safety
Yeah I'm really confused by his bullishness on bonds. Is he saying that demand destruction will happen so fast that central backs will have to start buying bonds/printing again? Even if that were the case, how would bond holders NOT suffer in the near term as rate hikes occur? And even if they don't raise rates as much or fast as the central banks claim (as Raoul suggests), surely rates will still rise significantly higher than they are now?
@@Robbo_547 then why dont you make a video pal
@@beaubeau6498 what topic do you need covering Beau?
We're probably close to the same age, but whenever i listen to you I feel like you're a wise uncle giving me some life lessons. I could listen for hours. Love your work.
Thanks Raoul, appreciate your thoughts.
You're right.. We don't know.. And, you give 3 Macro possibilities.. Scenarios 1, 2, or 3
Thank you Sir! Best Regards
Fantastic summary Raoul. Thank you.
Raoul goes from Bitcoin to all in on eth. Now he's buying bonds. Gtfoh
The guy still has income... People are able to buy new things and go "all in" on something
I don’t think he goes all in on anything
He has a lot more experience than you or I. Pay attention, you might actually learn something new.
And gold too
@@pawfootage guaranteed he never, never goes all in on one thing.
Thanks Raoul that really awesome of you to put this market into perspective.
Thank you, Raul. I appreciate you taking the time to check in on these things. Really helpful for us small retail peeps. Safe travels.
Great rambling overview. You nailed it.
Raoul brilliant analysis. Very helpful
Raoul, you are the first person I’ve heard acknowledge the drop in carbon pricing. Why has it fallen so dramatically?
Because the net zero green agenda i.e. carbon credits have suddenly been shunted well down the priority list of most countries
Thank you Raoul, your level headed take on things and your honesty is priceless.
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Gee Frank, Raoul's take isn't so priceless when his net worth has now been slashed by 40%. Cryptos are no safe haven, they are not digital gold....they do not go up in times of crisis.
“Buying gold, bonds and dollars and that kind of stuff”. You didn’t mention your funding. Might you be selling BTC?
He doesn't own any anyway
Excellent as always! He doesn’t mention China, India etc involvement..
Thanks Raoul , valuable information gathered in one 25min shot.
I'm halfway through this. Raoul has mentioned 3 scenarios. He didn't mention nuclear war as a 4th (and worst case) scenario. I'm extremely antiwar, but even I, being a well-informed realist about geo-political matters, have to admit there could be a 1% - 10% of nuclear weapons being used or intentional damage to a nuclear facility to spread nuclear radiation perhaps. Even if it is a 1% probability, it is a 4th scenario, and the worst case by far. Or maybe a full-scale global nuclear war is a worst case scenario 5? I don't think Raoul goes far enough with his 3 scenarios.
I don't think it's necessary to plan for a nuclear war. What economy will be left?
@@eirik9073 I live in a place that is probably 500 - 1,000 miles away from the nearest potential nuclear strike and much further from Eastern Europe. So my family could survive. But one wonders if the Internet would work, if bank accounts would be accessible, etc. There are investment ideas that work in such scenarios. Own land that produces food, seeds, cash, long-life food, guns, ammunition, precious metals, etc.
A full scale nuclear war is, unfortunately, a very likely scenario as Putin's Russia collapses. One should not underestimate his mental instability.
$32,000 returns in just 16days, my financial life is totally changed
So basically Raoul says - less equities, more gold, more bonds, maybe less dollar exposure.
He said in the beginning to “buy” dollars.
@@johnbracken7032 towards the end he says the dollar might weaken
@@method341 got it. So the dollar might strengthen or it might weaken. Now I’m clear.
@@johnbracken7032 yeah buy and sell the dollar and you're set!
"Everybody can sound scary and shocking so just be careful of that". Very true. Definitely will be lots of folks trying to add subs by crying armageddon. Thanks Raoul!
Thank you Raoul. What an update.
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Best of luck everybody!
Thanks Raoul!
Thanks Raoul!! Always great to hear your thoughts.
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This was superb. Excellent summary
So what is it Raoul, you say all the investment money is in crypto, now your buying gold government bonds; all governments are bankrupt?? so this must be with new cash or have you unloaded some ETH, why not buy BTC as store of value??
Hi. A Pole here. PLN/USD has fallen about 16% now. A bitter-sweet aspect of being all in crypto.
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Great update Raoul, thank you
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You’re the man. Ty
The worst thing is to give more weapons to ukraine through Nato-Partners. this could bring up WW3!! The sanctions hit the regular russians and they are not allowed to protest against Putin!! „The first thing that blows of in a war is the truth“ Thanks Raoul
Thank you Raoul!
What an excellent think out loud. Thanks so much. Keep it coming Raoul.
Thank you Raoul
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Always enjoy your perspective. Thank you!
Sri Lanka is a special case because it was debt-trapped by China and the government is sending foreign reserves to repay debt instead of buying food.
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Thought you were 100% crypto to the end of life ...
Myself I'm on the 0% crypto to the end of life ...
For now.
Great analysis as always from Raoul! No BS, no 10 minutes of virtue signalling, just straight to it! Awesome!
Investing in bitcoin is the best investment anyone can do this, because it has made a lot of people millionaire. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life..
Bitcoin is the most profitable investment online if only you trade with a professional broker
I'm really tired of trading on my own and blowing up my account, I'm real interested in trading forex this year because the shape the stock market is take placeI'm also getting into forex trading because a friend of mine told me that's forex trading is the best now to invest, well i have Bitcoin worth of $19,000 on my edge wallet
How do i get a professional broker i have been wasting my time trading on my own and blowing up my account
This is the great time to purchase and invest in bitcoin, most now that forex market is over all form of investment online
You can get in touch with his on Whats App 👇
Raoul , Sir, excellent synopsis and Thank You for your analysis and overviews !! Incredible times no doubt about it !! You and family stay safe, be blessed Sir !! You are much Appreciated and Highly thought of !!!
Always look forward to RP market outlook.
The
you can reach Thomas on Te-le-gr am 👉 thomasfullerofficial ...
Mr. Fuller’s daily signal is the best am using right now
, He's thomasfullerofficial on
Bitcoin is the future and the leading cryptocurrency. It's very profitable for real 💯💯
No regrets, Thomas’s daily signal is the best have ever used and i would also assure anyone seeing this to give it a try
SO appreciated 🙏 Thank you
Nice one here, though I prefer trading with the help of a professional trader, I believe it saves me time and reduces the crypto risks involved in managing my trades..
I used to use forex and crypto trading as a side thing but it has proven to be a major source of passive income since I came across Mrs Penelope Caroline Kinch, her experience of the crypto market is unrivaled.
I just started investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, how do I get in touch with your broker?
Saving your money and investing it into the crypto market will be the wisest thing to do to ensure success ... thanks to Mrs Penelope Caroline Kinch for eye opening.
@@christopherbetty2641 Kindly reach her through her telgram handle @tradewithpenelope
Great to hear Raoul talking about macro and traditional investments again. I was a long time real vision subscriber but do not buy the crypto thesis and real vision turned into a crypto platform. Listening to raoul now - I really miss his logical thinking, articulation of complex issues and framework. More of this please - old school real vision!!!
When in doubt....Zoom out! Thanks for the update Raoul.
Very informative, thank you
Thanks man. Please keep these coming!!! It helps a lot of people
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We want more of you Mr Rual ❤️❤️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Raoul, you're brilliant. Thank you so much for this, it is really helpful
Best video from Raoul
Thank you Raoul! Scary times! Time for more gold, silver and Bitcoin.
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Your communication shows great thoughtfulness, a highly intelligent analysis of very complex global issues.
What about the central banks switching to bitcoin. Since it’s better.
Who doesn't love Raoul?
👏🏻 Great listen while working.
Thanks Raoul. Always excellent
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Buying bonds and gold? Does that mean you sold your Ethereum? I'm not surprised you didn't buy Bitcoin, since you've made it quite clear you don't like it because some maxis hurt your feelings.
he doesn't dislike bitcoin, just has recently made no sense to trade bitcoin when almost every other crypto outperformed it massively during the bull run
Poor Raoul, I sense despair and sadness in his voice. I wonder if he's lost a big chunk of his fortune?
His 'Come to Jesus' moment that told him to plow all his wealth into crypto has been the source of his current major LOSSES.
Conditions are becoming horrible everywhere, and Raoul never mentions that Bitcoin has not turned out to be the SAFE HAVEN that people expected. While the real safe havens are growting in relation to the fiat currencies lessening value, Bitcoin reacts to the crisis by stagnating over its major losses.
Tough break. If you think its bad now, wait for the coming receession ... the 1st thing destitute people will SELL is their sinking Bitcoin. Yikes!
If Raoul was being honest and forthright, he would tell his audience "I've spent my whole life building a fortune, and I've lost much of that money in less than a year. Let me tell you my fatal error ..... back when I was a broker on Wall Street, we all spent a lot of effort analyzing and protecting our money from risk. Back then, nobody would ever ride an asset down 40%..
But I got crazy with "Crypto Fever", believing it was the perfect investment that could not lose, and so I dropped all the safeguards against loss. The money is not coming back. By leveraging my bet, I've nearly lost everything".
....
Thanks for the informative video, i will say the best macro outlook update i watched/read this week.
Thank you, Raoul and Real Vision!
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Thanks for posting. Sadly - its been two years of COVID BS and you finally feel like life may get back to normal - now here we are - 3 straight years if terrible
You are literally sitting in the US, and don’t once mention increasing the American energy supply
Thanks so much, Raoul. I value your analysis of global econ more than anyone’s. But sell more of your crypto! Lol.
Thank you.
⚙️I believe < that the inflation is already priced in crypto market since the end of last year. These manipulative rates are always 2 steps ahead of everybody because they are market marketers. I hope I am wrong and they won’t keep dumping it on retail inve-stores as always. Those who hold the longest will pro-fit the most, I trade and hold pro-fit keep up the great work! And also mrs Emily Charlotte has been doing a great job reviewing all chart, trad-e and tech-niques on B-T-C which has en-hance the growth of my port-folio from 1.7 B-T-C to 7.8 B-T-C lately.
Bitcoin is really frustrating this period but thanks to Emily for helping me out
Dose she offer mentorship?
She helped me recover what I lost trying to trade my self
What happened to your claims on the "exponential age". ?
Wow Raoul, great work!!
Raoul great appraisal thanks but what happens to oil after the Iranians are allowed to continue with nuclear, Israel carry out their threat to destroy their nuclear industry as they’ve promised then Iran invades the Middle East and oil and gas and shipping movements are totally stymied .
Thanks for your best thoughts - much appreciated!
Appreciate your frankness "no body knows with geo politics" thanks.
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Some of the best analysis out there. Thanks for all the hard work Real Vision team!
Raoul, we really rely on you for the macro view. And particularly for your level headed interpretations. Do you think there will be any Short Term (next six months) scenarios in the US in which the “little guy’s” money will be taken from their accounts by the US government? It seems that in the short term, govt will just print more money. My husband and I are working on getting out of the US banking system, but we’re not quite there yet…. Thanks.
watch out for the scammers on the chat
I'm not in the states, but I can't see this happening. I can't even see freezing accounts happening, letting alone taking it. Just imagine the impact this would have. Reps would never, ever agree to that. I wouldn't worry about that if I were you.
I think it could happen in Australia. The banks are propped up on residential real estate, which is primed for a crash. They will then bail in deposits and buy bank shares to prop themselves up again.
@@neilr4867 as an Australian living in Australia I can see this happening.
@@lilydo6713 I'm not Australian but I live there. The level of reliance on real estate is obscene.
Great, great, great contribution !! Thanks
Thanks Raoul!💯👍
Energy - you can’t move from gas, oil, coal etc until a new system is in place - how do people not see this? This is a ruse to shutdown worldwide economic system.
Thank you Raoul!!
And the update is that I was completely hyping ETH so that I could increase my wealth and it's actually going nowhere near 20k in this cycle....I'm sorry I did this but it was my Goldman Sachs training and you'll be pleased to know it works a treat and makes me filthy rich every time...thank you all for believing me I promise not to do it again soon.
I only watch when Raoul is on.
Thanks Raoul !
love you Raoul but it's only shocking if you are surprised by it. I'm glad you reference Peter but I still feel like he misses some critical data points.
Things are only going to get weirder.
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Thanks Raoul🙏🏽
Everyone is dancing to this crazy music called war, while the creators are having a literal blast orchestrating a great score!
AFAIK in my country there is no way for the government (let alone the ECB) to do 'transfer payments' to people. No desire to either for the moment. If ECB wants to make these payments to the people, maybe it will use it as a carrot to get people onto a digital euro, but that seems a little way down the road from where we are now.
They have been working on digital stuff for the last couple of years though. So, it's just a matter of time. IOTA has been asked to deliver a proposal for digital identification, for instance. Tezos has been approached. There is a European commission specially set up for all of this. They have a site with info, if you're interested in it.
@@green_firefly I am interested in the site. Thanks
@@green_firefly Re IOTA. No, can't find your reply.
Ukraine has the right to self determination.
this is about nato
That’s philosophically true but practically false. While we might want a principled ideal world based on rights, in the world of geopolitics, “might makes right.” Ask ourselves, does Russia, as a nuclear power, have its right to their own “Monroe Doctrine”?
As does Cuba
I think Putin is angry over the 2014 election that was overturned by the USA and a puppet was installed.