@@arnoldbioursckii6639 Clickbait thumbnail aside, nearly the entire presentation was forward looking around how this company stands to benefit from the rapid growth in data centers. That's the thesis, not past performance.
I got this sucker after IPO and it wasn’t moving for a while and the CEO kept on dumping her stocks, Cisco filed a lawsuit, so I chickened out. But, this MF 20x’ed after that. Good video.
Company insider selling always needs to be put into context, and then taken with a grain of salt. The CISCO lawsuit would definitely seem problematic, but they apparently came out on the good side. We all have missed ships that sailed without us. Plenty of others leaving port. Glad you enjoyed the video!
In the graph at 2:49, in 2022 Cisco was 21% and Arisa 42% market share in # ports. Then in the graph at 4:37, which you say is a great chart, is really misleading. Why does this chart need to separate vertical scale of two datasets to right and left axis? In the right graph, in 2022 Cisco is 29.6% and Arista at 22.6% share in # ports. These two pages of graphs of shares are contradicting in data. 4:37 graph, despite what it’s made to look like Cisco is lower, actually Cisco has higher share. Understand that 2:49 graph is for 100GB+ and 4:37 graph is 10GB+, and yes, Cisco is losing share and Arista gaining, but looks like a biased deck.
The two charts at 4:37 could have been four charts if we don't want to see a right and left axis for each of the two charts. The message wouldn't have changed. However, the right access should go to zero. You are right, that is biased. They should have had four charts. Most of the investor deck has charts that add no value. In that category we should also throw slides that are biased. Thank you for pointing that out!
I just taught a unit on data analysis to my 15 year old daughter, and I absolutely hammered into her how important it is to be able to determine "meaning" from data, and to recognize these types of dubious charting practices. As Joe said one time "you can torture data to make it say anything you want", so it really pays to either get the raw data or at least pick thru the charts with a fine-toothed comb. Or mouse pointer, whatever. Comb probably wouldn't help much.
@@aaron6806 You are absolutely right. Your daughter will be much better suited to navigate the relentless onslaught of bad information out there if she learns how to extract meaning from data herself. Basic critical thinking and financial best practices should be taught in every high school. For some reason I think that's not happening and most young people today are getting fleeced by "trading courses," instant analysts on social media, and crapto.
Agreed. I have some young relatives about to come into a sizable inheritance, for which I am executor, and I'm terrified it will all disappear down one of those black holes. If I was 25 with a couple hundred grand...who knows how broke I'd be now. Then again, that was 30 years ago, and it was actually quite a bit more difficult to find shitty get-rich-quick schemes. Usually it was that shady uncle who "played" the stock market.@@Nanalyze
I wonder what share of the Ethernet ,data center switch market Nvdia will capture with its Spectrum Ethernet compatible data center switches ,plus the “ ecosystem” of network interface cards , cables and DPUs ?
We don't pay too much attention to analyst estimates to be honest but double digit growth is nothing to sneeze at, especially if it's consistent over time. With strong gross margins much potential is possible. But can they maintain those on hardware? Tough.
Consider this though. Up until now Arista has made their money eating Cisco's lunch. Now the appeal is their pure-play-ness on data center growth which (arguably) might just be getting going, at least until everything gets built out and we hit some steady growth rates. That's why this is attractive, not the clickbait past performance numbers ;) Joe P.
Our Romanian fortune teller only came on board four years ago so we weren't equipped with the necessary alpha generation tools needed to identify this opportunity at the earliest point possible. We sincerely apologize for this mistake and promise to do better going forward.
your review is kind of ass backwards even though your coverage was good...You should have imo talked about its valuation first before the deep dive into what it does. It's been on a vicious tear and is off the charts. It is very frustrating to hear about a great company I will most likely nevr own unless Russia nukes the planet and causes a market crash. haha. BTW, The CEO came from CSCO, too. Seems like there needs to be consolidation in the space. cheers!
As the video stated, we'll talk about valuation in a coming article. Don't worry, if you sign up to our newsletter you won't miss a thing ;) Thank you for the factoid on the CEO coming from CSCO!
Yep, I thought about that. I really wanted to squeeze in valuation but thought it was already too long. The approach is really to make sure we're interested in the company, then we can start talking about valuation. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze imo 20 minutes for a video is no problem, I'd like to see deeper videos. Could still keep the ones targeted at newbies shorter because of attention span lol
@@g.starkiller6354 Yep, it's tough to figure out the optimal time for each video. It depends on the subject matter of course. We always exceed 10 mins and sometimes get into the low 20s. Probably keep it there because that allows for a 3-video-a-week cadence. As you said, attention spans are challenging to keep. Joe P.
May as well be playin the roulette wheel at the casino...besides, Las Vegas casinos give you a free room, free food, free shows, etc... so why not have a free vacation AND gamble?
Here at Nanalyze we focus solely on investing, not speculating. This is contrary to the sort of messaging commonly found among instant analysts and weekend warrior pundits.
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Great presentation. Would have even been profitable if presented 3 years ago.
2100%! Wow! But 2100 of it has already happened.
@@arnoldbioursckii6639 Clickbait thumbnail aside, nearly the entire presentation was forward looking around how this company stands to benefit from the rapid growth in data centers. That's the thesis, not past performance.
I got this sucker after IPO and it wasn’t moving for a while and the CEO kept on dumping her stocks, Cisco filed a lawsuit, so I chickened out. But, this MF 20x’ed after that. Good video.
Company insider selling always needs to be put into context, and then taken with a grain of salt. The CISCO lawsuit would definitely seem problematic, but they apparently came out on the good side. We all have missed ships that sailed without us. Plenty of others leaving port. Glad you enjoyed the video!
Hope you're doing well my friend. ✌️
I am! Hope you are well too. Trying to get this camera working cuz marketing says I need to show my face more in videos. :) Joe P.
@@Nanalyze dude fuck marketing you the boss
@@pebos1234567890 You got a point there. Fuck this camera. I'm going to smoke a bowl and go look for mushrooms. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze this is why you are a good dude
@@Nanalyze better without your face, thank you very much: )
Peaked, might or might not run more. If big guys sell
The key is to become one of these big guys
Broad comm did 5 X since COVID year 2020. Nice
In the graph at 2:49, in 2022 Cisco was 21% and Arisa 42% market share in # ports. Then in the graph at 4:37, which you say is a great chart, is really misleading. Why does this chart need to separate vertical scale of two datasets to right and left axis? In the right graph, in 2022 Cisco is 29.6% and Arista at 22.6% share in # ports. These two pages of graphs of shares are contradicting in data. 4:37 graph, despite what it’s made to look like Cisco is lower, actually Cisco has higher share. Understand that 2:49 graph is for 100GB+ and 4:37 graph is 10GB+, and yes, Cisco is losing share and Arista gaining, but looks like a biased deck.
The two charts at 4:37 could have been four charts if we don't want to see a right and left axis for each of the two charts. The message wouldn't have changed. However, the right access should go to zero. You are right, that is biased. They should have had four charts. Most of the investor deck has charts that add no value. In that category we should also throw slides that are biased. Thank you for pointing that out!
I just taught a unit on data analysis to my 15 year old daughter, and I absolutely hammered into her how important it is to be able to determine "meaning" from data, and to recognize these types of dubious charting practices. As Joe said one time "you can torture data to make it say anything you want", so it really pays to either get the raw data or at least pick thru the charts with a fine-toothed comb. Or mouse pointer, whatever. Comb probably wouldn't help much.
@@aaron6806 You are absolutely right. Your daughter will be much better suited to navigate the relentless onslaught of bad information out there if she learns how to extract meaning from data herself. Basic critical thinking and financial best practices should be taught in every high school. For some reason I think that's not happening and most young people today are getting fleeced by "trading courses," instant analysts on social media, and crapto.
Agreed. I have some young relatives about to come into a sizable inheritance, for which I am executor, and I'm terrified it will all disappear down one of those black holes. If I was 25 with a couple hundred grand...who knows how broke I'd be now. Then again, that was 30 years ago, and it was actually quite a bit more difficult to find shitty get-rich-quick schemes. Usually it was that shady uncle who "played" the stock market.@@Nanalyze
Could you please analyze CRM for us? Thanks
We did ;) Incoming: th-cam.com/video/UN8q3m2Nxf0/w-d-xo.html
I wonder what share of the Ethernet ,data center switch market Nvdia will capture with its Spectrum
Ethernet compatible data center switches ,plus the “ ecosystem” of network interface cards , cables and DPUs ?
Great question and something we'll try to probe in future pieces.
Analyst estimates are that eps will only grow 13% this year and 14% next year. Doesn’t seem too exciting to me. Thoughts???
We don't pay too much attention to analyst estimates to be honest but double digit growth is nothing to sneeze at, especially if it's consistent over time. With strong gross margins much potential is possible. But can they maintain those on hardware? Tough.
thank you very much for this great analysis. I'll get my grubby hands on some shares Monday. Very interesting company
One very important thing we didn't talk about (but will in a coming article) is valuation, something that ought to be considered.
30 second to long a wait!😂
Given the 8-second attention spans social media has spawned, you're absolutely right.
Your network picture. Please connect the internet to the switch. If its a hub, throw it out 😉
We're trying to keep things extremely simple, maybe too simple :)
ANET.
Ding, ding, ding ! What do we have for him, Johnny? ;) We were shocked to find out what makes ANET such a unique data play. ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED!
Do you have a take on A10 Networks? Do you think they are a competitor?
It usually takes a few hours of research to have anything intelligent to say about a company. We're not familiar with A10.
❤
We love you too!
Thanks for covering it but you’re 10 years too late.
Indeed
Consider this though. Up until now Arista has made their money eating Cisco's lunch. Now the appeal is their pure-play-ness on data center growth which (arguably) might just be getting going, at least until everything gets built out and we hit some steady growth rates. That's why this is attractive, not the clickbait past performance numbers ;) Joe P.
Quick glance on the valuation: Nah!
That's coming next - a look at valuation.
Nice one, Looking forward!
I would expect you to analyze this (or any) company way earlier before it's price explosion.
Our Romanian fortune teller only came on board four years ago so we weren't equipped with the necessary alpha generation tools needed to identify this opportunity at the earliest point possible. We sincerely apologize for this mistake and promise to do better going forward.
@@Nanalyze what is the competitive advantage of a Romanian fortune teller over any other origin ?
Pedigree
@@Nanalyze going back to Dracula
are they in the same market as Dell ?
No. Dell was covered in our original data center piece: th-cam.com/video/K0k35C2D-_4/w-d-xo.html
It just a new Cisco! No thanks!😮
There must be lots to learn from how Cisco managed to drop the ball here
Arista EOS makes it quite unique actually. There are YT training videos on it. Very impressive hardware/software architecture.
@@salookie8000 Software eats the world
Definitely a company I will keep my eye on.
Needs more research - especially on valuation as someone correctly said - but really like the pure-play-ness on offer here.
your review is kind of ass backwards even though your coverage was good...You should have imo talked about its valuation first before the deep dive into what it does. It's been on a vicious tear and is off the charts. It is very frustrating to hear about a great company I will most likely nevr own unless Russia nukes the planet and causes a market crash. haha.
BTW, The CEO came from CSCO, too. Seems like there needs to be consolidation in the space. cheers!
As the video stated, we'll talk about valuation in a coming article. Don't worry, if you sign up to our newsletter you won't miss a thing ;) Thank you for the factoid on the CEO coming from CSCO!
Yep, I thought about that. I really wanted to squeeze in valuation but thought it was already too long. The approach is really to make sure we're interested in the company, then we can start talking about valuation. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze imo 20 minutes for a video is no problem, I'd like to see deeper videos.
Could still keep the ones targeted at newbies shorter because of attention span lol
@@g.starkiller6354 Yep, it's tough to figure out the optimal time for each video. It depends on the subject matter of course. We always exceed 10 mins and sometimes get into the low 20s. Probably keep it there because that allows for a 3-video-a-week cadence. As you said, attention spans are challenging to keep. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze thanks!
May as well be playin the roulette wheel at the casino...besides, Las Vegas casinos give you a free room, free food, free shows, etc... so why not have a free vacation AND gamble?
Here at Nanalyze we focus solely on investing, not speculating. This is contrary to the sort of messaging commonly found among instant analysts and weekend warrior pundits.