ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.ค. 2024
- AI stocks are all anyone can talk about. The very definition of the term "AI stock" has shifted so much that we're apparently calling Meta and Cloudflare "AI stocks" now. Our mission today is to look at the artificial intelligence hype and determine whether we're in the midst of another dot-com-type bubble, or whether it's actually different this time.
To do that, we need to separate the financials from the hype. Remember, we invest in companies, not stocks. Companies like Soundhound.ai $SOUN, Big Bear AI $BBAI, and Airship AI $AISP are all seeing massive stock rallies. The common denominator? "AI" in the name. What does that remind you of? Then there are stocks like $NVDA and $PLTR that have legitimate exposure to artificial intelligence and - at least in the case of the former - are seeing strong revenue growth to accompany the surge in share price (Palantir, not so much). We talk about how AI hype is taking over investors and possibly getting frothy based on the path nearly all technologies take. Gartner's hype cycle has some truth to it.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. Will NVIDIA Stock Crash?
• Will NVIDIA Stock Cras...
2. SoundHound Stock Rides the AI Hype Train
www.nanalyze.com/2023/02/soun...
3. The Artificial Intelligence Stock That Rocked Wall Street
www.nanalyze.com/2016/11/arti...
4. NVIDIA stock isn't overvalued. Here's why.
• NVIDIA stock isn't ove...
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
02:07 The hype is real
04:29 NVIDIA
05:50 NVIDIA's stock investments
09:59 Hyped stocks
13:19 How it ended last time...
14:54 The mistakes you're going to make
15:31 Take a bet?
16:42 Takeaways
ABOUT US:
This video is brought to you by Nanalyze, a media and research firm founded by finance professionals with decades of experience. We share insights about #DisruptiveTechnology #stocks in a language that is future-proof and easy to understand.
Read all the Nanalyze Premium articles you'd like for free! Sign up for a 30-day trial of our monthly subscription with no strings attached: www.nanalyze.com/subscription...
DISCLAIMER: Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, along with independently researching and verifying, any information contained within our TH-cam videos or on our website, whether for the purpose of making an investment or otherwise.
$NVDA
#aistocks
#aistock
#nvidiastock
#soundhound
#sounstock
Before you read the comments below, you need to follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/nanalyzetweets 🐦
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I neither subscribe nor tweet on Twitter...I do not frequent, adhere, follow, or excrete anything on "X"... Quite frankly ever since Q-Elon went full-blown Putin / MAGA sycophantic totalitarian demagogic kleptocratic cultist clown I tend to consider such reckless individuals highly suspect and with an incredulous mistrustful eye.
Truly value-adding content, especially in those days!
Thank you for the kind words! We'll keep it up.
Internet alone cant heal cancer. AI alone Potentialy can.
Not AI, but probably Crispr
@pandoorapirat8644 The cure for cancer is early detection. We have a piece coming out on AI drug discovery soon (have covered this extensively in the past) and there are two names we like but wouldn't invest in yet.
@richardmarzec9136 What about when CRISPR meets AI? www.nanalyze.com/videos/video-article-crispr-meets-ai/
@@NanalyzeNVIDIA is giving the tools for the drug discovery with Clara and BioNemo. A lot of big pharma is using it allready. It doesn't matter who wins NVIDIA sells the Software tools.
@@GravelRacer1 I have Crispr too, this is the most exciting company out there in my view, the possibilitys... But they might not et there
Thank you for your insights!!
You're most welcome!
This is invaluable advice. People should heed.
Thank you for the kind words!
great video, thanks
Thank you for the feedback! It helps us know when we're hitting the mark.
Thank you
You're most welcome!
Great video!
Thank you!
Excellent talk so far👌👌🥳🥳
Thank you for the kind words. Always best to ride it out to the end because sometimes Joe gets out of hand and things start going downhill before he finally signs off and moves on to berating people on our social media channels. (Rolls eyes.)
@@Nanalyze 🤭🤭🤭🤣🤣🤣🤣Right on my friend!👌
Very good perspective. All investors should be aware of the risks when investing in equities. Enjoy the ride up, but be prepared for the dive down.
Thank you for the feedback! We do a lot of looking at what investors search for - 90% of the time it's why a stock goes down, not up. People are always surprised when volatility goes both ways.
great video!
Thank you very much for the feedback!
original tech products definitely didn't predict the size of their markets today. Like personal computers and even the iPhone
We were also thinking about the smartphone being a technology that wasn't really hyped initially. However, just look at what happened to Blackberry and Nokia. Were personal computers hyped? Dell was at one time I recall and now they're being touted as an "AI stock." Just about everything is, everywhere you look. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze I quite disagree that Blackberry and Nokia pivots are examples of the iPhone not exceeding original expectations. I also disagree that Dell advertising itself as an "AI stock" has anything to do with personal computers exceeding its original expectations.
@@chihchang1139 The problem with these text comments is that it's really easy to get lost. We were just saying that Blackberry and Nokia could have been seen as the Apples of tomorrow when Apple was. As for Dell, we were talking about dot-com days Dell.
Joe, so far ive been looking at improving ROA, ROE, EPS, net margin, debt to assets, BVPS, CFPS, CRPS, net income, total revenue, operating income, balance sheet, operating cash flow, and investing and financing cash flow for company funnymentals. Wondering if there are any more you prefer!
We really just keep things super simple when it comes to tech investing. Gross margin is pretty important as it shows potential for profitability down the road and revenue growth is a proxy for market share captured while our simple valuation ratio makes sure we don't overpay (at least that's the idea ;) Our tech investing methodology can be found here (ignore the URL name, it's freely available always): www.nanalyze.com/nanalyze-premium-articles/ Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Thanks for always interacting with us in the comments! And roasting people when needed lol
@@PremiumCollector. You're most welcome! Keeping comments fine tuned so they add value to the reader (and provide some entertainment) is a competitive advantage for our channel. Joe P.
Appreciate this video
Great to hear, thank you!
Joe, you are the GOAT!
You are too kind, but it's our team who makes these videos possible. I just stumble through the footnotes and talk to the slides. Joe P.
Very down to Earth point of view.
Thank you. It's important to always stay grounded, even if technologies are super exciting and the potential seems unlimited. Especially in these cases.
What do you make of SPIR? First profitable SPACE stock (this summer). I know you did reports on PL and RKLB.
We have written pieces on pretty much all space SPACs out there which can be found on our website.
Took a look. Our latest piece was a while ago so we'll likely do an article update on Spire soon. Stay tuned!
Haha, nice humor and informative.
Gotta keep it entertaining otherwise people tune out ;)
VERY good Infos, very interresting, minor Critic, he seems to be breathless!
He smokes too much weed
@@Nanalyze 🤣🤣
Always best 👍
Cheers for the support! It keeps us going since we don't run ads ;)
Great vid as always. The only AI hype stock I'm in is Palantir and it's nice to see the ratios haven't been driven as high as others in the market. I averaged down a lot when the price was in the $7 - $8 range and have sold half my position recently at a 190% profit so it's just house money now. Leaving the rest to run for the next few years at least. Their recent sales conventions are securing customers at incredible rates and many are so happy they openly talk about how great it is. They seem to be increasing margins and accelerating growth so I'm happy to pay a bit of a premium to buy more if there is a pullback. Plus most of big tech seem like they're just coasting which results in shoddy bug filled products and culture issues whereas Palantir staff are highly motivated and focused on the work.
Glad you enjoyed the video and thank you for the thoughtful comment. Revenue growth is always the ground truth when it comes to success. Palantir's existing customers are spending 8% more per year more these days vs 20% per year as industry standard (NRR) so we focus on metrics, not the spin their executives are always peddling eager retail investors. As for being highly focused and motivated, they damn well better be for what they're getting paid! ;) Be sure to check out our recent piece on Palantir here: www.nanalyze.com/2024/03/palantir-stock-pumped-ai-hype/
@@Nanalyze indeed looking at metrics is important but some are less so than others. Spend per customer is not empirically shown to be important, customer count growth (penetration) is.
@@chrisg9343 It always depends on the business model. If you're running a freemium business model and nobody choose the paying tiers, customer count means eff all. This is precisely why we focus on revenues growth. It is the ground truth. Management types love to talk about customer counts and bookings. We focus on what revenue is being captured and that has always proven to be the north star for any business model.
Joined your channel but, I can't see the sub-enabled server in the list. Have tried deleting and readding but no luck. Please sort it out else send a discord server link to join.
We just messaged you. The sync has been refreshed so now you can see the server.
I’m watching this for the first time today. Does the cap ex spend by META, MSFT, and Google change your mind on NVDA? I bought NVDA at 150 and 200 so I’m not as much worried about it. However, the crazy increase in cap ex has me believe hype is pretty real.
Be sure to watch this video which talks about valuing NVIDIA: th-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/w-d-xo.html
Cold hard facts..
Thank you! We always try to keep investors grounded because the most exciting times in the market are ironically when newbie retail investors stand to lose the most.
I 100% agree there's an AI hype bubble, but the bubble is not Nvidia, but I understand the entire bubble is dependent on Nvidia so it feels one in the same.
Well put. NVIDIA isn't overvalued if a) they hit analyst expectations at midpoint and b) the benchmark isn't overvalued to begin with. Heaven help them if they have a quarter that underwhelms.
This makes me think of the word 'green'...
Lots and lots of green from Nvidia
Almost everyone says AI is a hype. I am a contrarian. I feel AI is the real thing. This thing is gonna go up many many times. Its important to understand who is really doing AI stuff and who is really pretending to do AI stuff. Thats what people need to concentrate on
AI having hype surrounding it and future potential need to be analyzed separately. It's probably one of the most powerful technologies we cover, but like all other exciting technologies, it's important for retail investors to stay grounded because they will be taken advantage of as they have been over and over throughout time. Your comment about pretenders is spot on.
My first alarm when reading your post is that you 'feel' it's the real thing. That's what, imho, Nanalyze is the exact opposite of and also the reason I really like them.
@impaelas at this point, its not just me, but even employees at NVidea too just have a feeling.
A real transformation product which is pathbreaking, generates huge revenue and changes life of humans hasn't born yet. But there is a huge potential to transform the businesses as we know it. And again thats just a feeling. But its also possible that this transformation can happen 30-40 years as well. So I agree with Nanalyze view to stay grounded and not get into the hype train
Why does no one say "Timing the market IS waiting for a dip"? So do not wait for a dip. right?
Purchasing an asset at a target valuation based on historical valuations is being prudent. Tech stocks are extremely volatile, and hype is rife. That's why you need to pay attention to rapid price movements and consequent valuation jumps. "Waiting for a dip" is usually what the "diamond hands" people talk about, yet few actually look at valuation instead opting for arbitrary share price targets that mean very little.
I think what many people aren't fully appreciating is the inherently deflationary nature of AI technology and its profound capacity to enhance market efficiency. This isn't merely about automating tasks or reducing labor costs; it's about fundamentally increasing the productivity of nearly every sector imaginable. As companies across the board begin to integrate AI into their operations, we're not just looking at incremental improvements. We're on the cusp of a seismic shift in how businesses operate, akin to the revolution we witnessed during the Internet boom of the late '90s and early 2000s.
Let's take NVIDIA as a prime example. NVIDIA has been at the forefront of AI and deep learning, primarily through its GPU technology. These GPUs are not just for gaming anymore; they're the backbone of AI research and development, powering everything from data centers to autonomous vehicles. NVIDIA's pivot to AI has been a significant growth driver for the company, reflecting in its market cap, which has seen exponential growth over the past few years. This isn't just about NVIDIA selling more GPUs; it's about NVIDIA enabling a wide array of industries to harness AI, thereby driving their own growth and efficiency.
The similarity with the Internet boom is striking. During the late '90s, companies that embraced the internet saw their market caps soar-not just the tech companies, but also traditional businesses that leveraged the internet to reach new customers, streamline their operations, and create new business models. Amazon and eBay transformed retail, Google revolutionized information search and advertising, while companies like Cisco provided the backbone for internet infrastructure, experiencing meteoric rises in their valuations.
The key takeaway is that AI, much like the internet, is a general-purpose technology that has the potential to elevate the productivity and market cap of all companies that effectively implement it. As AI becomes more integrated into various industries, we can expect to see a broad impact on their efficiency, product offerings, and, ultimately, their market valuations. This deflationary force can increase output while reducing costs, a formula for economic growth and increased market capitalizations across the board. As AI technology becomes more pervasive, the potential for widespread productivity gains and market cap increases is immense!
Thank you very much for taking the time to leave an articulate and thoughtful response. We've been researching AI companies for over a decade because we believe the potential is absolutely transformative. This video isn't denying the potential of AI, it's pointing to the fact that nearly every single disruptive technology we can think of has gone through a predictable hype cycle. Retail investors always get fleeced as a result. You talk about how this isn't just about GPUs for NVIDIA and you are absolutely right. They need to start showing growth in their other segments to prove that it isn't just all about data center. We discussed that in this video: www.nanalyze.com/videos/video-article-nvdas-future/ Good comment.
Datacenter segment doesnt only have GPU Sales. IT has also networking and Cloud. They have mentioned that in their earnings.
@@pandoorapirat8644 Good comment. Seems like the products sold in that segment will be highly correlated with GPU sales which are likely dominating right now. The 10-K goes into detail as to what each of their segments entail.
I would think a little correction is healthy TBH for long term investors, the faster it goes up the more likely it may drop in the same short amount of time, a great trade for short term and also a good investment long term. Don't see that everyday :D
We don't trade stocks as that's a surefire way to end up in the poor house ;) The only successful "traders" these days are hedge fund algorithms.
My strategy is to protect me and to ok a long time to perfect so why would I change it
That's the spirit!
13:50 tesla model Y definitely wasn't overhyped and I know many people who wish they bought shares when the model Y came out
Technologies, not stocks. Electric vehicles were MASSIVELY hyped. You're misunderstanding the question.
I'm not worrying at all about Nvidia, looking at forward PE the stock isn't overbought (as long as they keep hiting or beating earnings). But there is a lot of hype and "bubble" in a sense in other companies, such as soundhound. Take a look at AMD PER for example... THIS is really scary, because if they do not get some substantial growth this year AMD stock will literally crash. And remember that they are competing with Nvidia, which invest a lot in R&D.
Thoughtful comment, thank you for that! We did a piece on valuing NVIDIA which looked at precisely what you just said :) www.nanalyze.com/videos/video-article-valuing-nvda/
I believe that text messaging did not over estimate the technology potential.
Nice one. Probably throw beepers in there as well - the OG of text messaging.
You forgot to mention the metaverse as the next big thing
Indeed! It made it to the slide, maybe not the audio :)
For all of my side-plays, so far, in 2024, I've been shorting small-cap / microcap AI and quantum computer stocks. I'm fairly certain that out of about 25 or 30 plays I've only failed to close / cover with a significant profit 2 or 3 times. Amazing how many people keep falling for the same pump & dump schemes over and over, year after year. If these kids are going to leave money laying around all over the floor least I can do is bend over, pick it up, and place it in my account.
Interesting side note. TH-cam can't manage to catch the 100s of scammers who post in our comments page every video religiously, but use the "r-word" in a comment and it's battle stations everyone. How r3tard3d is that?
You must have balls of steel because those kids can stay (insert word that begins with "r" and rhymes with eetardid) longer than most of us can stay solvent.
The Motley Fool used to have some good articles a few decades ago, but now it just puts out sugar-coated garbage to get as many clicks as possible.
I'm dating myself here, but I'm old enough to remember when the Fool actually had solid content and a really fun corporate culture that many admired. They really sold out over the years. Generative AI might actually improve their content, and you can be sure they'll start using it to save a buck. Joe P.
Might take these crap-to gains into cash for yield, although monthly supertrend signals uptrend in BTC and ETH. Just an observation. 🤔
We told hold some small amount of BTC for diversification and it's a "house money" position. At some point there has to be something viable that comes out of crap-to aside from the scams which are measured in hundreds of billions. Incredible to see how many people were fleeced. It's the old trilemma that needs to be solved. Okay, enough off topic banter. ;)
@@Nanalyze Vet insight always appreciated 🙂
Monster Beverage Corporation.. Example stock.. Incredible returns.
Energy drinks are not a new technology, though we did cover one at the request of paying subscribers here: th-cam.com/video/BRW51NgA6CQ/w-d-xo.html Energy drinks have no moat and are subject to the whims of today's fickle and easily manipulated consumer.
Invention of the chair had no hiccups
Solid comment.
Sliced bread 🍞???? toilet paper ?????
Some more good points. Should we refine our question to technologies that transpired after the stock market came into existence? From Sofi, "Although the first stock market began in Amsterdam in 1611, the U.S. didn't get into the stock market game until the late 1700s." Maybe call it 1800 for good measures. Wonder if the first car was totally hyped?
@@Nanalyze that definitely narrows out possible answers haha. My best answer would be invention of the fridge, although I can’t vouch if in fact there was no hype cycle
@@xxxxredxxxx Not to go down a rabbit hole but this is kind of interesting. Per Wikipedia, "In 1913, refrigerators for home use were invented. In 1923 Frigidaire introduced the first self-contained unit. The introduction of Freon in the 1920s expanded the refrigerator market during the 1930s. Home freezers as separate compartments (larger than necessary just for ice cubes) were introduced in 1940." They were owned by General Motors, a company that went public in 2010.
Fun fact Amazon dropped 95% so more than Cisco
You, sir, make a good point. From CNBC, "Amazon’s stock tumbled month after month as well, losing more than 90 percent of its value in two years." The dot com times were nuts.
Great presenter and content.
Thank you for the kind words!
I’m betting on sofi hype and riding its hype for a month and jumping ship and investing into real estate hype then I am moving to a prefer 3rd world country countries
Be an investor, not a speculator
CAVA is one technology that has not been overestimated. 546x PE is not really that much crazier than ELF for heck's sake. Indulge in _Authentic Greek Flavors!!!_
Your comments are always a treat.
I know a technology that wasn't overestimated, the F-35.
Good point.
pretty sure motley fool is just posting their arcticles with 100 percent ai.
AI would probably put out better content compared to half the tripe they're spitting out these days
NVDA has been touted by the Fool forever!!
Touting any stock is a Foolish thing to do. It doesn't help people learn how to make their own investment decisions. But it does get lots of clicks.
@@Nanalyzehe meant the Motley Fool lol, 7:34
@@SuperLeafyman We know, that's why we used the capital "F" ;)
EMH is wrong imo I believe in Richard thaler misbehaving and did you not know that meta made PyTorch and tesla uses it for its self driving meta is not a AI pure play but still grants you exposure
As we said, then any company using AI does as well. We take a more pure play approach to investing in technologies.
Tag that fool Harsh Chauhan writing those fad articles
The man is probably paid to generate clicks, and if that's his job he's doing it quite well. It's just not something we could ever do because we believe that integrity is very important in this business. We help people become better investors, and part of that is pointing out content that doesn't lead to that.
Pltr is best a.i. stock to buy ever
No cheerleading please. Here's our latest article on PLTR hot off the press: www.nanalyze.com/2024/03/palantir-stock-pumped-ai-hype/
Caveat Emptor as the Bard wrote “ brevity is the soul of wit “. Time is a scarce commodity for everyone, why prattle on using up a commodity that you cannot re-imburse ? For those thar will LOSE $ from Motley Fools etc; well it’s just tuition Mr. Market requires to learn. No one ever learns from lectures, reading or watching U tube “prophets”
True enough. The best way to learn is to do, and the only way you'll become a good investor is if you get the mistakes out of the way. We've all made them.
13:50 ok this was a lil silly lol, Tons of tech and their underlying stock has had historically great and appealingly unstoppable uptrends as a result of their inception and gradual adoption. Amazons AWS came out in 06 but it didnt really get mass adoption til later, and when it did oh boy, amazon stock made major gains especially in the 2010 to 2020 decade and if you missed that uptrend you just simply missed the boat. Its not like woooaaah dude we overestimated AWS and all the other satellite innovations of amazon, -90% on amazons stock price LMFAOOOOOO not every tech stock will have these like --50% drops because investors were getting too giddy, sometimes a legit story plays out and that can send a stock into an uptrend for many years achieving higher and higher levels of support
Amazon, eh? Chart their stock from IPO until 2001 and you'll see what we're getting at. We wouldn't describe that as "unstoppable." Using terms like "missed the boat" are characteristic of FOMO investor types who fall for the hype stories every time.
There are technologies that resulted in big gains on the stock markets without being a bubble in retrospect (electricity, steam machines, telegraph, semiconductors, etc...)
And well those were different. It is always different until it isn't.
Also you only show idiotic unnuanced headlines giving the impression of a bubble forming, but atm you can find as many headlines talking about a huge crash incoming, or about the bubble on the verge of imploding.
Electricity and steam engines preceded the stock market while the performance of semiconductors depends on what index you're using (covered here: www.nanalyze.com/videos/video-article-soxx-vs-smh-vs-xsd/). As for only showing idiotic headlines, we simply put "AI stocks" in Google News and took the first nine headlines. We're going to push back on that and say we're seeing way more bullish articles on AI than bearish.
Got out of SOUN like a thief in the night. Ran it from around 1.7 to 3.9. It really did run past its monthly 55 ema. Fundamentally doesnt make sense, though.
SOUN is a classic AI hype stock. We don't jump in and out of names and try to take advantage of that hype though. Wouldn't even think about taking the short side. I think that in one instance we trimmed on massive hype (gene editing) but will always only invest in names we plan to hold for a decade. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Joe, do you guys consider being positive theta? I would like to subscribe to the discord soon and am wondering if there are any volatility sellers in the gang, as its always returned to a mean. History repeating itself as you said.
I know what you're getting at and have seen some investors doing that in my personal circle. Here at Nanalyze we don't dabble in that to be honest and generally discourage people from engaging in that sort of speculation. More sophisticated investors might be able to play that game successfully over time but it goes against the sort of risk averse approach we take to accumulating wealth. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Thanks guys, and I appreciate your approach. I'll focus my discussion on security analysis while here.
“All of this has happened before, and it will all happen again.” - Peter Pan
"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." - God
"This time it's different" - Definitely not God, and probably not Peter Pan.
Quality comment this
The cheapest stock in ai world is Nvidia
Oh boy.
FACT CHECK. your wrong or misleading on *SOUN...
$NVDA gave then seed money in 2017. They acquired share in 2024... simple put follow the money. Many other companies also invested seed money in 2017
Keep them on ur radar can't hurt. Nice video though will follow
We're not misleading people at all. The video talks about the 2017 investment. Watch it please.
SOOO...WHAT IS YOUR POSITION? WHAT ARE YOU INVESTED IN? Truth is, all us little guys have no choice but to follow the leader. Options manipulation is defining this market with the big hitters with limitless money are dictating it all, which really means they are shaving most PROFIT at the expense of us tag-a-longers.
You do have a choice. Everyone has a choice. Following what other people do won't help you become a better investor. Start by coming up with a simple strategy that doesn't involve trying to find the next Microsoft or going all in on tech. Here's a pretty good video on where to start (from last year but advice is timeless): www.nanalyze.com/2022/12/investing-in-2023-managing-risk/
The NVDA correction started Friday.
Trying to call a top has a way of humbling a man.