Felix Zulauf’s Big Calls For 2024 And Beyond
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to apply his framework for understanding markets to make several big calls for 2024 and beyond. Zulauf expects the rally in stocks and bonds to continue to Q1 2024, but then he argues both will struggle as the liquidity cycle enters its final phase. FIlmed on December 5, 2023.
More info about Zulauf Consulting can be found here: www.felixzulauf.com
Felix Zulauf is the Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. Felix has over 40 years of experience in financial markets and asset management and has served as a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for 30 years. He started as a trader with Swiss Bank Corporation in the early 1970’s and received training in research and portfolio management thereafter with several investment banks in New York, Zurich, and Paris. Mr. Zulauf joined UBS in 1977 as a Portfolio Manager of global mutual funds and became Global Strategist of UBS in 1982 and the head of the institutional portfolio management group in 1986. Felix served as a member of the Executive Board of Clariden Bank from 1988-1990 and founded Zulauf Asset Management AG in 1990, a Swiss-based asset management company. Mr. Zulauf sold the majority of the firm and spun off a Family Office in 2009.
LinkedIn @zulauf-consulting
TH-cam Channel @zulaufconsulting
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Counter-Trend Rally In Bonds May Continue, But The Bond Bear Market Likely Isn't Over
12:47 Magnificent 7 Stocks Are "Excessively Overpriced
29:31 Transition To Bear Market
35:25 Has U.S Economy Dodged A Recession?
37:23 Some Economic Statistics Could Not Be Accurate To Reality
40:27 Will Inflation Reaccelerate
42:01 Geopolitical Risk Is Not Being Taken Seriously By The Market
46:07 U.S.-China Relations
50:34 Waiting On China's Economic Recovery
53:53 Will Bull Market In Japanese Stocks Continue?
56:34 Tactical Bullish View On U.S. Dollar Relative To Some Other Currencies
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
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My spouse and I are diversifying our long-term investment portfolio by adding various stocks and ETFs. We've allocated $220k to begin with, focusing on inflation-indexed bonds and companies with strong cash flows.
While the current market offers short-term profit potential, it's crucial to note that executing such a strategy requires expertise and skill.
You're right, I was able to diversify my $550K port-folio with the aid of an investment advisr, I was able to generate over $250K in net profit from high dividend generating equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them? My wife and I have been looking for similar opportunities.
*Natalie Marie Gentry* She's been able to gain some reputation with over a decade of experience, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic information on the web.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Great interview Jack. I recently cracked 900k and have my eyes on a mil. I've been investing with my financial advisor who trades stocks for me.
Hi from Ireland..my dividend of 140k has gradually scaled to 820k. I key into the directives of a licensed FA, Ann Marie Celentano who handles my trades and it's been awesome.
Thank you sharing this. I’ve googled Ann Marie Celentano and I’m impressed by her competence. I just reached out from her website.
Nice reading comments about Ann, met her during a seminar in NY. she now handles my trades as well as that of my friend. she's someone I recommend.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient but remember the bigger the risk the bigger the results. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Her name is Amber Dawn Brummit can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Sometimes analysis could disguise a stock as a value stock especially when you are considering only the PE ratio and maybe the book value of the stock. I've made some money during these analyses myself, but I still feel like something is missing. I'm starting the year with a 60k portfolio, but I want to tread carefully.
Stock analysis is more than reading quarterly reports. Learnt this from reading Peter Lynch's book. Nonetheless,I believe there are people who do this for a living, and I just delegate the task to these professionals. That's how I make money from the market to be honest.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings
Natalie Marie Tuttle is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
Is anyone else tired of these financial advisor recommendation bots? “My financial advisor is XYZ”. Absolutely ridiculous.😂
Does anyone actually fall for these scams? And why doesn’t TH-cam get rid of these accounts? There must be thousands of them, or millions?
I agree , they are idiots look for bigger idiots
They absolutely get victims, else there'd be no incentive to try so hard. If they put that much effort into something legit, they'd be farther ahead in life instead of LOSERS trying to steal from the unsuspecting.
Actually….. I have 😂 and it worked out great!!!!! I’ve been looking for somewhere to put my 200,000 usd ever since the beginning of 2023 but could not commit to the market knowing how volatile it can be for an amateur investor like me. 😵💫😩 But thanks to my advisor Mark Jacobs🤓, I’ve made a hefty return in just 2 quarter pounders🤠
With the rally we saw in stocks November continue this December? Both speculative and defensive assets are also on the rise. If yes what assets, instruments might those be?
The market need several strong performances over the next couple of weeks before we can agree to the narrative that the bear market is over. For now its just FOMO.
Its unclear which stocks and sectors will lead the market in the next uptrend. Stay away from the stock market if you do not have guidance from a plannner and investment strategist. My finances have been in order since I got a wealth planner like Monica working with/for me.
Some experts will say don’t underestimate performance chasing, others focus on bond yields not Monica, your financial goals come first as priority then you figure out what plan works best for you for the next 5years.
Who is this Monica you speak about? I have been searching for an advisor who can direct us on where the economy is headed next?
Monica Mary Strigle just do your own research you’d find details
How can I reach her directly and what are the upfront fees?
The only thing you need to know is that the market follows the FED, nothing else matters. I have about $500k liquid from the sale of a property and just need to take advantage of this rally, any pointers?
Just wait, keep your current or sell them and come back when risk is lowered because it’s at all time time high, alternatively you can speak to a certified financial expert for strategy.
When it comes to situations like this, it's ideal to engage in various options like using an advisor, and I can attest to success of the "basket of securities" approach seeing my portfolio grow from $350k to almost $1m in barely 3 years, by far my best financial milestone.
@josephbush I don't feel happy about my investments. I feel like i've lost 2 full years of growth and retirement is now delayed. Can you recommend this professional you've consulted for their services?
Certainly, the nice thing about working with "HEATHER LEE LARIONI" is that she has experience with several facets of financial advising. For me, she has expertly built a diversified portfolio that includes digital assets, generates seven-figure earnings, can hedge inflation, and outperforms the S&P 500 steadily.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
Yes as a macro trader the truth that you must never forget is that in the end the markets always move in the way that loses the largest number of people the most money! Invest accordingly.
The thing is, the market is NOT pure sentiment. The next time the unemployment rate goes up 3-5% on absolute basis, there will be a selloff, regardless of what percent of investors are bearish or bullish at the start of it.
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
I enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $300k .
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
VALERIE JEAN ZWOSTA
That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!
Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up phone call.
No one went broke taking a profit Sell 20%
Now then more as the market hits previous highs
Zulauf is just on another level
Not an argument
Hell yeah
Things appear strange right now. The value of the US dollar is declining due to inflation, but it is increasing in comparison to other currencies and commodities such as gold and real estate. People are flocking to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I'm worried that rising inflation will cause my $420,000 in retirement funds to lose value. What else could we do with our money?
Could you please leave your investment advisor's contact information here? I desperately need one.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I browsed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and career. She owes me a fiduciary duty to act in my best interests. I set up an appointment to use her services.
Milkshake theory playing out
***SCAM THREAD*** DON'T BE A VICTIM!
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Anna Williams
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
Anna's expertise in customizing investment portfolios based on changing market conditions and personal risk profiles is exceptional. It's not a one-size-fits-all approach, which is crucial in crypto investing.
What impresses me most about Anna Williams is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.
Sincerely speaking., I will continue to trade and stick to Anna Williams daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
Zulauf you are a legend, love you man ❤
Excellent guest, and a good interview -- your questions were precise and insightful. Thank you.
I might be wrong but i recall he was very bearish in the last interview but the market ripped higher.
💯
It’s true. In 2022 he was calling for the lows in Q1 2023, but honestly, he’s not alone. Many macro economists and investors were super bearish on 2023. His theory could still play out, just with a lag.
@@a.r.6638 yes most macro economist seems to be wrong footed. I think it'd the liquidity guys like Michael Howe that called the bottom right.
Thank you to present such an excellent interview with Felix...I have been listening this interview several times....
Zulauf brings a truly global perspective and his analysis is actionable if you can ignore confirmation bias.
Felix was all wrong on the 2023 market, but as he said Feds played games , so tread carefully
He got some things right. He called something breaking in March, which it did. I think he underestimated how creative the Fed would get dealing with it.
The average mutual fund and hedge fund can’t beat the randomness of the markets. Amazing how many people think these talking heads are somehow better than the fund managers.
If you want to be successful in the market, don't listen to anybody's prognostication.
Well Felix's outlook for 2023 was completely wrong. So use his current take as entertainment only.
His current view is a mirror copy of his Oct 2022 view. In other words, the same view pushed out a year. Will he be right this time?
Does this guy have a crystal ball? Because so far spot on.
Excellent interview with pertinent questions to someone who has a great handle on macro economis.
Quite a feather in the cap having Felix on.
Thank you.
The take away here is this will be a roller coaster ride for a couple years, not a standard bull or bear market. People like things they can understand, and this is very complex, beyond most peoples capability to synthesize all the data and make investment decisions. Anyone taking a single position, or going long in anything will get hurt. You will have to be open to all assets, bonds, equities, commodities, ect. but only with the right timing. The so called experts say you cannot time the market, but you have to in order to survive and profit. Buy and hold, 60/40, passive investors will get destroyed, markets will suck in money and take it away faster then people can react. However the worst piece of this is the bias of a bull market starting, makes no sense at all, the data does not support it, and that easy life is over for a few years.,
Japanese equities are not in a bull market, certainly not for those outside Japan. Why would I say this?
Look at the currency. The Yen, which Japanese equities are denominated in, has seriously weakened against the dollar. Equities have merely revalued to ensure foreign investors can't purchase the equity at such a heavy discount due the the currency weakness.
The increase in the equity price is not bullish, it's not a sign of strength. It's a sign of weakness. This is what many investors don't understand about currency and inflation.
THIS GUY WAS TOP NOTCH, UNREAL INSIGHT
Amen
Thanks for this great informative and interesting talk wishing all happy new year ✌️
Another splendid, fascinating interview with guest and host on top form. 10/10. Exemplary.
PS The US is "the strongest economy" at the moment, but only because of a frightening level of debt, $34 trillion any moment soon.
Don't miss the chance to be part of the Xeventy presale guys! Easy 50x till the end of the year, and I´m a very conservative
I thought it was a little odd you're asking the question about how up the market was this year,assumin you where referring to SPY or QQQ knowing that there's only seven stocks that really have created most of the gains ,at least at this point ,did you not know that? Because the bulk of the market has not done well at all.
Always enjoy Gareth’s interviews and have always found David Lin’s interviews, even from his Kitco era the easiest to comprehend.
What an informative interview. Thank you both.
I love your analysis, always on the point. And yes, Xeventy is a game changer. Great project!
Zulauf sounded smart until he talked about China, he really doesn’t understand China and the Chinese economy; thus, I listen to the entire interview again, found too many speculations, listeners probably benefited the most by the first 10 minutes of this interview.
And you understand China?
Agree. He also talked BS about war in Ukraine. Russia good, China good, America bad. Guy speaks like average fool feed by Russia Today propoganda
Not an argument.
Indeed a great interview with good insights which are confirmed by other experts that I follow. Geopolitic events have a great influence on investing right now that should not be overlooked. The US is a declining empire with if the whole of the western world while the East is rising.
You are the only one that makes sense, the only one I follow.
There are some that hit your ball park but do not offer any real substance to back their position. I suspect they watched your channel.
thank you for sharing. glad to have found this in my feed. this guy is good very good.
Nice interview, but: i) Felix mentions a secular shift in rates/inflation where they are now heading higher after decades of declines, however doesn't explain the mechanism through which this will happen aside from supply shocks from BRICS commodities suppliers, which completely ignores the deflationary forces of a) massive debt globally, b) negative demographics/declining populations, c) AI & technology more broadly and d) a return to more globalization as there are always work-arounds to trade restrictions. And ii) he says oil could go to $150-$200 or even shoot higher in the event of a direct Iran confrontation - well, tell that to Saudi, who have been so bearish on the oil price through 2023 that they have been cutting production and is now on the verge of selling another stake in Aramco (i.e. as they see more downside ahead). Finally, iii) oil at those lofty levels would not be tolerated during a US election year and one needs to also note that US oil production is at a record high at 14 million barrels per day (end 2023) and rising, higher than any other nation, and the US is non OPEC. No mention of these key topics unfortunately.
can anyone share the interview's transcript?
A single income or relying on government support should not be every employee's dream or mindset, but having an investment plan by purchasing good stocks as income support and retirement is the best option one could take in life. economy of the country (America), which is unfortunately about to crash. According to the statistics of so many intermediaries and observations, the government does not pay attention to its economy and its citizens, but is investing in wars (Ukraine and Israel).
That's true, take a look at China and most countries in Europe that are not involved in war and have good growth in their economy, giving their citizens a better life and support in their country.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It
is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I'm 40 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement.
I can easily ask you to look up for Linda Sue Baier to help you grow your finance
An professional financial analyst or advisor can certainly add value by offering tailored advice, portfolio diversification, risk management, and timely insights. Linda Sue Baier is an expert that can potentially speed up wealth creation and navigate market complexities, She's the best chioce to make for investor as she gives a Favourable Market Stocks to produce high investment yields and ROI
Great guest. 100% agree with everything he said & that’s rare for me
Jack might be the best Financial Information host on TH-cam today ❤
I agree with, or at least am open to, all of Zulauf’s upshot’s. His supporting points were consistently half-baked. Just one example: taking for granted that consensus MUST be wrong
but it always is 🤣
Consensus is always wrong, he’s correct.
Any Cliff Notes for Interview??
Nice job, Jack. Who can you get on that is expert in Japanese Monetary Policy?
"The numbers are made up...". Felix Zulauf
I bet the ruZZian money they are bagging over there ain't
SHOCKER🤬🤮
On point so far
I think Xeventy´s XVT will be one of the top performers in bullrun 2024/2025.
Great interview. Thanks y’all.
Felix is my new besty. Awesome insights.
Big Winners for the AI sector in 2023 is Nvidia and Palantir.. both rising nearly 200 %. Will * SOUN Up 21 % month.. SoundHound and * BBAI.. Big Bear AI be the Larger Gainers in 2024 with both planning acquisitions with strong revenue growth.? Thumbs UP video / comment as the Bulls continue to trample the shorts in the AI tech sector.
Felix has so much knowledge.....
Felix Zulauf has obviously an all encompassing grasp of the stock market in USA. If he could also explain how the changing geo-economic monetary problems of countries outside USA and its attendant effects on the USA market like the Dow Jones and S&P would be most welcome. For example the on-going dumping of the US$ Treasuries led by China etc. and its contagion effect that would likely affect the US Stock market. Markets are dependent on the flow of money which is the deciding factor of supply and demand. Add to this the change engendered by the on-going wars in Middle East and UK/Russia which has no solution leading to the danger of World War 3. Then all bets are off.
He says the US is interfering domestically all over the world and that China is not. At the same time he says the US has lost influence all over the world and China has it. And there's some truth to that given things like the Belton road initiative. The first part seems to conflict with the second, I think he's a tad biased here. The bias may influence his outlook.
If I ever need cheering up, I'll watch this one again. And I thought I was a pessimist. You need to organise an interview between Yukos and Zulauf together. The conspiracy theories would be off the charts.
Thank'y Cap'n!
Youve been awesome on the level calls Like incredible
You give it a really good chance its falling to $30k or is that black swan?
Thank you
Thanks👍
He does a lot of talking to say that he is a contrarian trader who believes some major outlier situation will happen that will cause interest rates to raise significantly again.
He also is stuck in the stock market of his youth and doesn't seem to understand that when everyone has a 401k and retirement account that is mostly based in stocks, you have more money in the system keeping stock prices higher then they were 30 years ago.
Great job Jack
Thanks guys
Very nice guy, is he a meme icon where the suit’s button is about to rip off?
What?
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Felix Zulauf is a smart guy.
The markers are expert in scientific calculation. I have a scientific calculator. I need more training.
Good stuff here, and he seems to really grass macro. My biggest issue with a lot of these macro investors is they seem to always ignore the geopolitics of things. They really think rates would go so high and there would be no political pressure or the stock market would drop without any intervention by the Fed. To me, that’s too big of a variable to ignore
The more I listen to the conversation I found myself a little confused on the marco outlook and the risk of the future. I am asking myself these question on the time. If you have money and want to invest to generate better return than your local bank providing, I need to find a way to do better. The answer is stock market and especially here in US. Investing is alway have risk & reward. $100k to make $200k in one year or two is very hard. We need to give it sometimes and trust what is your research. You have to read and do more research each company or funds that your are thinking in favorable base on the current market condition. For Felix, he probably make more money in subcription than his portfolio. I would like to see his track record of the last 10 years in the stock market (equity or fixed income). We do understand the world that we are living in right now do have a lot of differences and circumstances. I strongly believe there are still a lot of good people. Investing is suppose to be peace of mind to make good money. If you scared then don't view all of these negative marco outlook to worry you.
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%, but what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?
I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Save your cash for when the market actually shows signs of recovery
Generally speaking, expert/advisor guidance can be beneficial acquiring& managing wealth gains in form of dividends, digital assets, etc, and over time will provide more returns. Thankfully, I can attest to the success of this approach seeing my portfolio of $330k grow by 25% in this bull run
@@kansasmile this is interesting! the bull rally seems a good time to invest, looking to invest but quite confused about it, would obviously need some guide as a total newb... mind if I look up your advisor please?
I have been working with 'Monica Selena Park,' and the beauty of it is her expertise extends to various aspects of financial advisory. She has skillfully constructed a diversified portfolio for me including digital assets, i have amassed 7 figures earnings, capable of withstanding inflation and market changes. I'd suggest you research her further on your browser, sure you'll find her basic info.
excellent share, no BS. just copied and pasted her full name on my browser, thankfully her site came up after scrolling a bit, she seems first-rate
That the US Feds hired 52K in December that then shows in rising NFP data yesterday and the markets assumption of higher for longer is such rubbish. Why are the Feds hiring so many ppl in December?
treasuries wont sell under 7 percent after next counterfeit dump to pay for US IO Us , it will then go to above 12 percent counterfeit compensation
How can he say fund Managers expect a soft landing if they’re so bullish treasuries. Imo they are expecting a hard landing especially in the U.S. and rightully so as in any time the Fed fought aggressively Inflation it couldn’t avoid a recession.
Exceptional video from Felix and kudos to you Jack.
anyone know what zulauf's historical performance has been? I don't see any performance numbers on his website. We hear all these people with various opinions, and they are all very interesting, but none of these opinions are worth their salt imo unless they have the track record to back it up.
Very well said
He said bonds would be the big thing in2023 particularly first half of the year if I recall correctly, therefor incorrect.
Felix ❤
Top notch conversation. Thank you
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
Jack Farley, the Jerry Falwell of all things cripto-religeo. Bless your heart.
A bunch of guessing...
There´s a rumor that Xeventy will go on Kucoin and few top exchanges after the launch!
My top pics for this bull run: Trias, Verasity and Xeventy
very similar outlook to Luke Gromen (you need to get him on btw) or Lyn Alden (also get on plz)
Good Interview... Thank you. Swiss/Zurich, economist, Paraguay for 10 years
Yes Felix was über bearish and was certain the market would crash big time in Jan 2023.I wish he would have gone into why things turned out so different.
in the Austrian view we could now be in the middle of a crack-up boom or melt-up as people invest in anything tangible or capital assets in stocks.
So Mr Zulauf thinks that Finland for instance has not the right as the neighbour to Russia to join NATO? It’s easy for him to be located in Switzerland and give us,Ukraine and others advice of what we can do or can not do. Is he nowadays running money for oligarchs?
wow, great interview
These macro guys always end up reciting what sounds like an end of the world movie script.
Great interview and the guest seemed to be very fluent in it all.
On point
Dollar bounce, I agree. Japanese just bought US Stteel.
37:54 🚨
This guy loves to talk geopolitics, but he's way outside of his lane. Wish these markets/macro guys would stick to what they know, and spare us their half-baked reckons on how WW3 starts
The Goat
Excellent guest!
🔥🔥
All I want for Christmas is Jack's face on all thumbnails. Thanks!
Thanks for the video. Though, metamask sucks in my opinion
🔥💯💪🏾
I don't get what he is saying