Please note slide correction at 07:48 Should read "at any price at or ABOVE 295 both puts would expire worthless" SMB's Options Workshop: bit.ly/3K4ac79
I asked before but looks like it disappeared and so reposting the question. I watched the workshop through the above link. I saw the discounted offer presented at the end. Question: The training that was offered was done recently or created long time ago. Hope someone from SMB answers it before I buy it. Thanks.
To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Ronal’ focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. His skills set is top notch.
I am so happy that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mother and I live in Spain, I bought my second house in September and I hope to retire next year at 40 if all goes well. thanks to Louise O'Brien for helping me achieve this.
My trades are 95% backwards too. I really think about switching, but I'm afraid to. When all RSI, MACD, Bollinger and MA are saying uptrend, I buy and it goes down for the next 500 ponts, then consolidation for 3 days 😢
Maybe it goes sideways or down in summer, but it peaks only in June-July, and before that it pumps like crazy in May. Next few months will be euphoric, forget about deeper corrections. Stock market is already oversold, put/call ratio near extreme levels, May is historically bullish for tech stocks (if earnings come out good). Bitcoin will probably chop around here and close month negatively (first time in 8 months), then to the moon! And even if there is a larger correction in the future, it will happen above previous ATH, that's where BTC.D dumps and altseason kicks in. So the fun is just getting started...It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
Investment is currently the most lucrative business in the world. both real estate, Stock and Crypto currencies is positively changing people's lives..
$330 credit vs. $4700 maximum loss at a 90% chance of win? $330 x 9 wins = $2970. 1 loss at $4700 without stop, buyback, or rolling out. $4700 - 2970 = $1730 net loss over 10 trades.
You are on the right track, but you have missed something. You have the max loss right but there can be various outcomes when the closing price falls between the short put and the long put. The bottom line is that, thanks to the efficient market, the expected return over the long run is zero.
Appealling for the high win rate--I am sure in the cases when the trade goes against the position can be mitigated. Just tried to conduct this trade on TradeStation as a strategy test, unfortunately did not have the $200k+ available funds to execute a $2,355 max loss trade for a $220 credit. Maybe just need more permissions (higher account trade level)?
Credit spreads are negative vega trades which is ok when IV is high to maximise the returns. If IV is low then a positive vega startegy is ideal like a diagonal spread.
The negative comments here are unhelpful. SMB has consisently provided among the very best educational videos about options and trading. They have full training programs for aspiring traders and while these videos are very well done and easy to follow., they don't pretend to be the "be all and end all" for options trading. Any self-respecting trader should do their own due diligence and if they did, they would realize there's a little more to it than what is explained in this video. For instance, a 90% win rate is certainly not guaranteed, esp over a short interval of trades; the video doesn't say otherwise. SMB Capital provides excellent customer support and is very responsive to questions. If anyone thinks that all they need to trade successfully is a 15-min video, they shouldn't be trading. Kudos to SMB Capital.
I have a high opinion of SMB capital as well. However, I respectfully disagree that it's "unhelpful" to point out the drawbacks in what's being presented. The "negative" comments here are not on disputing the 90% win rate, it's that the market makers are normally not paying us enough in premium, to compensate us for the 10% we lose in these trades over the long run. If I win $1 in 9 trades, and lose $12 on the 10th, that is not a "wonderful strategy" IMO. The only reason the strategy presented was a nice "winner" was because the perfect time was cherry-picked to implement it, at the end of 2022 with a year long bull run to follow. The magic was NOT in the strategy, it was in the 20/20 hindsight as to what the market did for that one year period! I think Seth would agree with that to be honest. Pointing that out is not being "unhelpful", I think on the contrary it's being quite "helpful" to point out to newer traders that they need to understand the reality of things. And the reality is, market makers are NOT in the habit of overpaying us for credit spreads we sell, they underpay us, that's how they make THEIR money! So the truth is, you have a have a real "edge" to make money, and 20/20 hindsight is NOT an edge, it's wishful thinking. We could have easily had a "thesis" that the middle of 2022 was "the bottom" and lost our shirts with this strategy. Or the market could have bounced the first few months of 2023, and then rolled over again, and again, given us a full and painful loss. So it's no use pretending, as the demo optimistically did, that we can simply predict, in advance, that we are in for a year long bullish market.. And if the market maker is underpaying us for our credit spreads, then I don't see how that's a very wise bet to take, since we can't predict the future, unless we have some other another actual "edge" (other than hindsight), to overcome that typical underpayment of premium by the market makers.
@@WorldSpectator705 Ok, I'll concede you have a point. Perhaps it would have been more "complete" for the video to clarify that the "90% win rate" is not a strategy in an of itself, but must be combined with an exit strategy to limit the 10% of losses to something far less than the max. For example, if the premium for 1 contract is 33 cents (for selling a 10-wide put credit spread), then the expectancy formula = # wins * avg win/trade - # losses * avg loss/trade = 9 * .33 - 1 * 9.67 = -6.7; in other words, a LOSS of $6700 with 10 contracts. However, by mitigating those losses with, say, a 3x credit premium strategy, e.g. exit with a Buy-to-close order when the price of the spread rises to 3x the initial credit premium, that could change the expectancy formjula such that you're in nicely positive territory.
10-Delta diagonals and now 10-Delta Put Credit Spreads!! Now I have 2 High Probability strategies!! Also, my Hope is restored! SMB's option education is Holistic. The while, SMB is sharing the wealth.
A 90% win rate but what is expected value? I never sell options because the risk reward is in reverse of what it should be. I am a debit options trader that makes asymmetrical small position size bets and hoping for home runs
problem with that weekly spread is that the credit received from a 10 delta (mentioned in video) will be a joke due to the minimal extrinsic value . $50 credit $400 +loss if breached type of a scenario .At least with spy qqq s etc .
I appreciate effort to create detailed explanation of strategy, but one important detail was omitted. If strategy is wining 90% of time, it doesn't mean its profitable, it can still blow up an account. So, many times it was said that strategy won x10 times in a raw about $350, which makes $3,500 profit. But it was as well said that broker wanted minimum of $4,500 in the account. So, I guess worst case scenario loss was $4,500. What is the point of winning $3,500, if potential loss is $4,500?
Exactly right. We are being underpaid for the risk we're taking on the credit spread. This focus on "high win rate" is frankly very deceptive and I'm a little surprised that true professionals like SMB would be pushing that nonsense. I think they know better. I'm sure they evaluate their own traders using their trading "profit factor" (ratio of wins versus losses) and NOT their "win rate".
The amount of people complaining about it in the comments is hilarious 😂. It’s a fantastic strategy way better than buying you pair it with TA that is following trend and it should be better than %90.
Win rates are mostly irrelevant. What is the overall p/l of the system over an extended period of time. A system where 1 loss wipes out all profits is a useless system.
As others have pointed out, the expected value (EV) of this trade is not great. Stop losses can *maybe* save you if the price doesn't drop over the weekend, and even then, volatility spikes can result in false stop losses. This trade alone is not enough of an edge.
You have to apply for approval to trade options. And there are different levels of approvals required for different types of options trades. For example a lower level of approval is required to trade covered calls, than to trade spreads as with selling credit spreads. You probably also have a "margin" account I believe. Call your broker or hunt on their website for someplace that allows you to ask for approval to trade options, and again, for this strategy, you need the approval level required to trade "spreads", so that's what you need to apply for.
Hmm I used to really push to get better at trading until I found my place.. hedging.. I now never lose money. Never. Not ever. Its small gains but at least its pretty much a guarantee I win. 99.999999% chance.
A 90% win rate means you win 9 out of 10 trades, but the 10th trade you lose 10 times what you won previously. Win rate is meaningless. There is no free lunch. You have to have an edge.
You need to compare the premium Credits and compare to the max loss, you can also use a stop loss. You need to understand some technical analysis for this to work.
This supposed 90% win rate is only true over very large numbers of trades. In real life, one can easily lose a few or a lot of these in a row. Without risk and trade management, you have 100% probability of being completely wiped out.
Well, it's actually worse than that. Even if you have the capital to trade this so-called strategy month-after-month for years, you're being underpaid by the market maker for each 90% winner, so your 10% losers are larger in dollar terms than the sum of your 90% winners. It's a losing strategy in the long run, UNLESS you have some other 'edge' to selectively use it, and I don't mean 20/20 hindsight, which is the "edge' Seth uses in this video.
@@WorldSpectator705, agreed. Again, trade and risk management is the key here. I wish Seth would stop making these misleading videos. It's disservice to all the novice traders watching these clips.
Please note slide correction at 07:48 Should read "at any price at or ABOVE 295 both puts would expire worthless"
SMB's Options Workshop: bit.ly/3K4ac79
I asked before but looks like it disappeared and so reposting the question. I watched the workshop through the above link. I saw the discounted offer presented at the end. Question: The training that was offered was done recently or created long time ago. Hope someone from SMB answers it before I buy it. Thanks.
To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Ronal’ focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. His skills set is top notch.
he’s mostly on Telegrams, using the user.
@R o n a l f x 2.
Sir Ronal’ has offered profits to investors who wish to recover losses including myself and it’s a great honor to be part of them 🥳
Thank you Ronal’ for your TA 💯. I’m excited how my trading is going so far. I’m on $1m challenge right now. Already earning $35k weekly
Ronal’ strategy has normalized winning trades for me and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
I am so happy that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mother and I live in Spain, I bought my second house in September and I hope to retire next year at 40 if all goes well. thanks to Louise O'Brien for helping me achieve this.
You trade with Louise O'Brien too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
That woman has changed my life for good. I attended her investment class couple of weeks last year and she’s the best when it comes for Guidance.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I'm happy to see Louise O'Brien mentioned here, my husband recommended her to me when I was in Germany during Covid, she's amazing.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. It's huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
My consistency is great. I lose almost all the time.
You do know that your trading against the same organization that's giving you this advice right? 😮😂😢
😂
😀
Just inverse your trades😅
My trades are 95% backwards too. I really think about switching, but I'm afraid to. When all RSI, MACD, Bollinger and MA are saying uptrend, I buy and it goes down for the next 500 ponts, then consolidation for 3 days 😢
Maybe it goes sideways or down in summer, but it peaks only in June-July, and before that it pumps like crazy in May. Next few months will be euphoric, forget about deeper corrections. Stock market is already oversold, put/call ratio near extreme levels, May is historically bullish for tech stocks (if earnings come out good). Bitcoin will probably chop around here and close month negatively (first time in 8 months), then to the moon! And even if there is a larger correction in the future, it will happen above previous ATH, that's where BTC.D dumps and altseason kicks in. So the fun is just getting started...It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Tobias Hawke program is widely available online..
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
Investment is currently the most lucrative business in the world. both real estate, Stock and Crypto currencies is positively changing people's lives..
$330 credit vs. $4700 maximum loss at a 90% chance of win? $330 x 9 wins = $2970. 1 loss at $4700 without stop, buyback, or rolling out. $4700 - 2970 = $1730 net loss over 10 trades.
Was looking for this comment, never a free lunch
Exactly!
You are on the right track, but you have missed something. You have the max loss right but there can be various outcomes when the closing price falls between the short put and the long put. The bottom line is that, thanks to the efficient market, the expected return over the long run is zero.
Appealling for the high win rate--I am sure in the cases when the trade goes against the position can be mitigated. Just tried to conduct this trade on TradeStation as a strategy test, unfortunately did not have the $200k+ available funds to execute a $2,355 max loss trade for a $220 credit. Maybe just need more permissions (higher account trade level)?
This is essentially what I planned to comment but you beat me!
Credit spreads are negative vega trades which is ok when IV is high to maximise the returns. If IV is low then a positive vega startegy is ideal like a diagonal spread.
The negative comments here are unhelpful. SMB has consisently provided among the very best educational videos about options and trading. They have full training programs for aspiring traders and while these videos are very well done and easy to follow., they don't pretend to be the "be all and end all" for options trading. Any self-respecting trader should do their own due diligence and if they did, they would realize there's a little more to it than what is explained in this video. For instance, a 90% win rate is certainly not guaranteed, esp over a short interval of trades; the video doesn't say otherwise. SMB Capital provides excellent customer support and is very responsive to questions. If anyone thinks that all they need to trade successfully is a 15-min video, they shouldn't be trading. Kudos to SMB Capital.
@SMBCapital834 Sorry, I'm not understaning?
I have a high opinion of SMB capital as well. However, I respectfully disagree that it's "unhelpful" to point out the drawbacks in what's being presented. The "negative" comments here are not on disputing the 90% win rate, it's that the market makers are normally not paying us enough in premium, to compensate us for the 10% we lose in these trades over the long run. If I win $1 in 9 trades, and lose $12 on the 10th, that is not a "wonderful strategy" IMO.
The only reason the strategy presented was a nice "winner" was because the perfect time was cherry-picked to implement it, at the end of 2022 with a year long bull run to follow. The magic was NOT in the strategy, it was in the 20/20 hindsight as to what the market did for that one year period! I think Seth would agree with that to be honest.
Pointing that out is not being "unhelpful", I think on the contrary it's being quite "helpful" to point out to newer traders that they need to understand the reality of things. And the reality is, market makers are NOT in the habit of overpaying us for credit spreads we sell, they underpay us, that's how they make THEIR money!
So the truth is, you have a have a real "edge" to make money, and 20/20 hindsight is NOT an edge, it's wishful thinking. We could have easily had a "thesis" that the middle of 2022 was "the bottom" and lost our shirts with this strategy. Or the market could have bounced the first few months of 2023, and then rolled over again, and again, given us a full and painful loss. So it's no use pretending, as the demo optimistically did, that we can simply predict, in advance, that we are in for a year long bullish market.. And if the market maker is underpaying us for our credit spreads, then I don't see how that's a very wise bet to take, since we can't predict the future, unless we have some other another actual "edge" (other than hindsight), to overcome that typical underpayment of premium by the market makers.
@@WorldSpectator705 Ok, I'll concede you have a point. Perhaps it would have been more "complete" for the video to clarify that the "90% win rate" is not a strategy in an of itself, but must be combined with an exit strategy to limit the 10% of losses to something far less than the max. For example, if the premium for 1 contract is 33 cents (for selling a 10-wide put credit spread), then the expectancy formula = # wins * avg win/trade - # losses * avg loss/trade = 9 * .33 - 1 * 9.67 = -6.7; in other words, a LOSS of $6700 with 10 contracts. However, by mitigating those losses with, say, a 3x credit premium strategy, e.g. exit with a Buy-to-close order when the price of the spread rises to 3x the initial credit premium, that could change the expectancy formjula such that you're in nicely positive territory.
Thank you for helping us become better option traders!!!
I learn something in nearly every video from SMB. Thanks guys for what you bring!
10-Delta diagonals and now 10-Delta Put Credit Spreads!! Now I have 2 High Probability strategies!! Also, my Hope is restored! SMB's option education is Holistic. The while, SMB is sharing the wealth.
Thank you very much for sharing Sir
If you don’t know want you are doing we are glad you are here.
A 90% win rate but what is expected value? I never sell options because the risk reward is in reverse of what it should be. I am a debit options trader that makes asymmetrical small position size bets and hoping for home runs
Any advice on DJI currently and forward, thank you kindly in-advance for your response.
Just buy
You rock brother!
How you manage risk? 1 full loss = -$4,670 vs 11 wins at $33 per win is +$3,630 or net loss for the campaign even at a 90% win rate.
Is this a binary options trading program, or a normal trading platform?
What about doing weekly credit spread , is it better than monthly
problem with that weekly spread is that the
credit received from a 10 delta (mentioned in video) will be a joke due to the minimal extrinsic value . $50 credit
$400 +loss if breached type of a scenario .At least with spy qqq s etc .
I appreciate effort to create detailed explanation of strategy, but one important detail was omitted. If strategy is wining 90% of time, it doesn't mean its profitable, it can still blow up an account. So, many times it was said that strategy won x10 times in a raw about $350, which makes $3,500 profit. But it was as well said that broker wanted minimum of $4,500 in the account. So, I guess worst case scenario loss was $4,500. What is the point of winning $3,500, if potential loss is $4,500?
Exactly right. We are being underpaid for the risk we're taking on the credit spread. This focus on "high win rate" is frankly very deceptive and I'm a little surprised that true professionals like SMB would be pushing that nonsense.
I think they know better. I'm sure they evaluate their own traders using their trading "profit factor" (ratio of wins versus losses) and NOT their "win rate".
@@WorldSpectator705 Yeah but if they think they can get more views using win rate than profit factor....
One loosing trade can wipe out 9 win trades. And it’s not good idea just to open a trade on any random day. We get higher premium when IV is high
A Kelly criterion states you have no chance to be successful with 90% of a win ratio and 33 to 467 P/L
SMB's Options Workshop: bit.ly/3K4ac79
I commented before here but I don't see it now
The amount of people complaining about it in the comments is hilarious 😂. It’s a fantastic strategy way better than buying you pair it with TA that is following trend and it should be better than %90.
Win rates are mostly irrelevant. What is the overall p/l of the system over an extended period of time. A system where 1 loss wipes out all profits is a useless system.
Is manually trading still possible and profitable with algotraders as competetors? Can you do a video on AI algotrading?
As others have pointed out, the expected value (EV) of this trade is not great. Stop losses can *maybe* save you if the price doesn't drop over the weekend, and even then, volatility spikes can result in false stop losses. This trade alone is not enough of an edge.
Credit spreads can make or they can break you. You must have a winning strategy before processing the order.
Yep...
i m enjoying playing chicken with stocks on expiration week
its rather exhilirating
technicals are assistants
Which brokerage is best for these types of option strategies. I tried this in Robinhood, but they would not fill.
You have to apply for approval to trade options. And there are different levels of approvals required for different types of options trades. For example a lower level of approval is required to trade covered calls, than to trade spreads as with selling credit spreads. You probably also have a "margin" account I believe. Call your broker or hunt on their website for someplace that allows you to ask for approval to trade options, and again, for this strategy, you need the approval level required to trade "spreads", so that's what you need to apply for.
Hmm I used to really push to get better at trading until I found my place.. hedging.. I now never lose money. Never. Not ever. Its small gains but at least its pretty much a guarantee I win. 99.999999% chance.
A 90% win rate means you win 9 out of 10 trades, but the 10th trade you lose 10 times what you won previously. Win rate is meaningless. There is no free lunch. You have to have an edge.
I assume the pros know how to minimize the loss.
I was just having the same thought
You need to compare the premium Credits and compare to the max loss, you can also use a stop loss. You need to understand some technical analysis for this to work.
You shoud stop loss at like -500$ and not wait for -4700$
Stop losses.
Offen times, those posting comments praising individuals in a posting that have NO REAL connection too this video / posting are offen scams.
7.1% gain on $4,670 risk margin if the options expired worthless in a month.
This is a pretty worthless video without the analysis on the amount lost on the losing days.
You win $330, but you are risking almost $5,000
This supposed 90% win rate is only true over very large numbers of trades. In real life, one can easily lose a few or a lot of these in a row. Without risk and trade management, you have 100% probability of being completely wiped out.
Well, it's actually worse than that. Even if you have the capital to trade this so-called strategy month-after-month for years, you're being underpaid by the market maker for each 90% winner, so your 10% losers are larger in dollar terms than the sum of your 90% winners. It's a losing strategy in the long run, UNLESS you have some other 'edge' to selectively use it, and I don't mean 20/20 hindsight, which is the "edge' Seth uses in this video.
@@WorldSpectator705, agreed. Again, trade and risk management is the key here. I wish Seth would stop making these misleading videos. It's disservice to all the novice traders watching these clips.
My shit never expires worthless because Robinhood closes our my trades at 3:30 and buys back at a penny over the ask. They’re the worst
SEC capital 🤭
Lol
No music?
No watchie.....
😦
lousy investment
Bogus claim