Ses 9: Forward and Futures Contracts I
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ต.ค. 2024
- MIT 15.401 Finance Theory I, Fall 2008
View the complete course: ocw.mit.edu/15-...
Instructor: Andrew Lo
License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA
More information at ocw.mit.edu/terms
More courses at ocw.mit.edu
His analogies are always on point. You better understand the concepts when you listen to his analogies. Amazing Professor and intellectual.
he hasn't made any significant breakthroughs so he's not a great intellectual. He's a smart guy and a very good professor.
excellent... his lectures tells a whole new perspective... This is very different from the book reading of what futures and forwards are... Infact he cleared my year long doubts :) BTW thanks MIT for sharing
What books did you read?
@@hannukoistinen5329 Brealey & Myers being followed in this course
funny that today 2020.04.20 oil price is < 1 dollar / barrel
Hopefully you didn't buy puts with that price in mind
He is such a great professor.
Prof is really interested in teaching -
he makes complex stuff simple!
By the way he seems to be genius...
would u like to work with me through this course if u r still studying this ?
Himja Nand I am. Are you?
@@himjanand2034 i would
I like how he's explaining current monetary policy at the beginning
@55:40 this happened during covid-19 pandemic during march 2020, demand for oil dropped suddenly, and they were ready to supply to fill the contract.
As the no body had storage solution oil price went negative at that time.
That's great. Thanks for sharing.
Long live MIT
Funny, had he had actually agreed to buy oil at $40/barrel in February 2009 (roughly 6 months from when this was made) he would have profited.
46:42 If any one didn't get the joke on AAA rating bonds. I will highly recommend you to watch the Oscar winning movie - The Big Short (2015)
What a privilege to be able to watch this over and over again with instant replay for free. What a public good this is
Education should be a free, essential resource.
29:37 today after 3 years oil barrel costs USD 48
less than $10 12 years later hahaha, so much for oil scarcity
Oil price is negative as of April 23 2020
@@onceappuonatime should have bought that goddamn forward contract and sold for $40.
Honestly that visual of "If you're sales report is one currency, it's basically the opposite of selling in this other currency" really made things click for me.
I love the discussion, everybody is welcomed with as many questions as possible.
14:54 - I was listening to a podcast recently from Robert Kiwosaki, and he indicated his involvement in investing in Uranium and other commodities. Does anyone know why he would be interested in this venture? He was also speaking about Warren Buffet buying Gold miner and how he's buying other commodities like agriculture. It's interesting that during this pandemic, he would buy Uranium. He didn't explicitly say why. Does anyone know?
18:36 - This is also very interesting because American Barrick is considered a safe-haven in gold mining and market volatility. During the pandemic, Warren Buffet, who had an aurophobia, decided to invest in this gold mining company. According to my research, gold mining is a good way to hedge against concerns about rising inflation and is a safe-haven in very volatile markets. Does anyone agree or have additional information?
To hedge against Inflation, you are better off buying Gold ETFs. Get exposed to Gold as an asset and remove the company specific risks with American Barrick.
@@sgpleasure well i heard buffet doesnt like anything that doesnt have cash flow so cant say i would be surprised that he invesst in mining company rather than buying gold or gold etf :) also he probably know the company well enough to bet on it so he can get extra earnings from growth of the company in addition to rising(if) gold price.
Here we go about Argentine again
exactly this girl is so annoying
This topic was always a bit confuse for me, but now it is clear :). Thank you so much for sharing this content.
Lies again? FAS FUS
Oil price 3-3-22 Brent crude 118.11.
Great lecturer.
You rock Professor. Thank you
literally the best timing for a finance course lol
Trading is a business ,who understand that they will succeed,off course you need a system to give you an edge and discipline.What a system does ,it will show you entry ,exit,how much you can risk,if you stick to the system you will be disciplined.But saying that only your risk to reward ratio will bail you out at the end of the day.
I am glad I found these awesome lectures.
Thank you very much!
Great video and great prof
Guy at 29:00 is laughing now with the negative spot price and the oil market in contango
I am teaching very similar material (undergrad though) and I am watching him to learn how to teach better. Great service to share these videos, thank you.
$40/barrel of oil?
DEAL!
(iT IS 29.71 TODAY!)
+Jay Musting Ha ! Yeah, I'd love crude @ $40/barrel right now... my long calls wouldn't be looking so unhappy....
Oh yeah? A month ago it was -$38.
Would there be countries that would be opposed of the idea of using blockchain technology? 😅
So so so so great professor!!!!!
I wonder if anyone in that audience is a billionaire yet...
probably not but who knows
This is soooo good! now got the real basics in ma head
Thank you, professor.
Lol oil price went negative in 2020.
As a person with substantial science/arts of finance and statistics background, he explains it extremely well patiently. I’m surprised this is a MIT fin402 course; students are asking weak questions. Then again, im 36 years old and have been a Wall Street junky since I was 14. Cheers 🥂 folks, hope you’ll succeed.
I think it's because it's an mba course; not everyone is coming into the program with prior finance or business education. I'm undergraduate and just getting into finance and this is really simple to follow even without the supplemental textbook readings.
People are coming here to learn, no such thing as a weak question.
A brilliant professor with incredible teaching skills.
Very insightful lectures
Thanks Andrew Lo
very informative
damn I wish I studied finance in America, such a useful lecture
🇮🇳🇮🇳🙏🙏👍👍
Look at the oil price now...
Will this work for the Indian markets, cuz I am in INDIA
Great lecture 👌 Thanks.
Some times it's just that hard how you people manage all together
How would the changing future contract prices relate to the strategic pricing of Soy bean product by the manufacturer who buying the soybeans from the farmer?
43:38
I buy gas don't khow how gas station undergoes structure don't have to khow it as long as people pay for km
25:18
I don't understand; professor derides people who want to suspend mark to market but then goes ahead and say that prices are wrong when there is no liquidity. But that's exactly the problem with some interest rate products at the time; there were no liquidity therefore the prices are not valid and therefore should not be used for marking to market.
Although the price is not valid, theoretically it is still the best guess there is, meaning that you should take that price as valid for the time being I guess
1:01:05 that's interesting
Excellent
Where are the 'brent seas'?
"I AM L."
Uranium - 235
Online brokerages are so popular now.
1:01:00
if forward contract's price is 15$ 1 month into contract, then why the value of contract not 5$ at t=0, when spot price = 160 and forward price = 165$?
Refer back to his lectures on Net Present Value. The forward price $165 is the value in the future. The spot price is NOW.
@@sgpleasure thanks
"15."
im going to* get smart and get back to you prof .peace
Coming here to get the forward contract rule and principles in European style. Yes, got all what I want from the Critical Concept. Yeah.
Time changes rapidly compared the time of this lecture esp the prices. But the main principle of finance is THE SAME. HAHAHA
So are European and American forwards and futures contracts similar?
These forward markets are highly liquid *Coughs*
Money printer go brrrrrrrr
46:14
10:40
Thank you
Kanye West doing his MBA :-P He's on the right side sitting :P
haaaa.this comment made my day
Kanye wishes this was him.
In 2021 Kanye has already 4 kids with Kim and filed for divorce ☺️
Thanks to the wonderful andrew lo
q
"PRIME."(61)
V.
At 3:30 that foreign female student brought up numerous lengthy comments without any point at all but her personality speech show. Come on. What is her point among whole bunch of words?.....STF
What's ur point writing that?
“foreign” countries have financial markets that function on the same economic grounds that ours do. She lived through a similar situation that occurred in Argentina and wanted to share her experience. Hope that helps bro
Average Argy, so self important and trying to show off
who the hell is this guy?
+Danny Riley a finance professor at MIT with a PhD in econ from harvard that founded a quant investment company. he governed the boston exchange and is an editor for like 5 stat journals.
who the hell r U?
+MyKkata LOL
big daddy!!