10 reasons why exit polls are problematic and unreliable | | Let Me Explain with Pooja Prasanna
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Exit polls have become the hottest topic of discussion. Most exit polls predicted a landslide victory for Modi’s BJP in the Lok Sabha, their numbers turned out to be wildly inaccurate. Most pollsters missed the mark on the BJP's numbers by 80-100 seats, which caused market fluctuations amounting to around Rs 30 lakh crore, or nearly $400 billion. Rahul Gandhi has demanded a joint parliamentary committee to investigate what he termed the “biggest-ever stock market scam.”
In this week’s Let Me Explain, Pooja Prasanna explores why this round of exit polls is being labeled a scam and gives you 10 reasons why exit polls are problematic in general.
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The lack of public interest in important topics is a clear indication of an underdeveloped or developing country
EVM scam drama done so now new scam drama started! Give us a break!!
Go and read financial media articles from December 2023 when BJP got 3 state win n market shot up. Read all articles about Indian markets till election day n you will clearly know that on 26th may Bloomberg article it says that foreign investors to pull money out of Indian markets if BJP doesn’t get majority. Exit polls made everyone jump in the bull run like it happened in 2004! But results shocked everyone like 2004! In 2004, markets dropped by 20% after BJP loss!
Jefferies Sees 25% Drop in India Stocks If BJP Loses 2024 Polls - Bloomberg article from Oct 2023!
Everyone who knows market knew market will fall if BJP lost! It happened in 2004 as well!
But why was market so afraid of Congress coming to power? Think! Read economic news financial articles to understand why!
@@ASeeker-9999 we have rules for market manipulation; which shouldn't be broken whether harm/benefit is caused by breaking those rules to the investors; otherwise it's anarchy
@@ASeeker-9999 market wasn't on a bull run due to fundamentals. IT was going all the way up because behti ganga mai sabko hath dhona tha. Any sane person in the market for over 20 years understands this well. When Manmohan Singh became the PM the market shot up by 40%. Do you know why? because the market had faith that an educated minister had taken charge. All hedge Fund managers want Modi to be out.
@@wheatecho4361 bro, I am a trader. I understand markets. This is normal expected stuff!! If BJP would have got majority numbers then market would have shot up n those same people would have made a lot of money! When it felt like BJP was not winning, market panicked as future economic reforms were doubted. Market fell. Once it was sure that BJP will still be in power with NDA then market consolidated n now it went up again! Every investor knows that BJP is development friendly n hence pro economic reforms. Market is expecting BJP to bring some labour n land reforms in third term. Let’s see if that happens.that is considered by foreign investors as the next push for Indian economy. Hope BJP can still push through those reforms.
Even when Rishi Sunak won, Pound value shot up. When Lizz had come before him, market had fallen. These show market/ investor sentiments! It happens everywhere.
Brilliant analysis and delivery. Great job
Thank you
Very precise reporting. 🎉🙏
Agree
Good one
I just realised that this follows the same format as Palki Sharma from WION. An observation.
Shock market
To point great
Giving financial advice without a license is illegal in India. These politicians literally announced to buy the stocks publicly and no action taken against them till date. Anyways, ModiJi ko to vaise hi bhagwan ne bheja h to kya hi action hoga😂
Doesn’t qualify as financial advice cause they didn’t mention any stocks… they just said invest in the market.
Jefferies Sees 25% Drop in India Stocks If BJP Loses 2024 Polls - Bloomberg article from Oct 2023!
Everyone who knows market knew market will fall if BJP lost! It happened in 2004 as well!
But why was market so afraid of Congress coming to power? Think! Read economic news financial articles to understand why!
I don't believe in JPC but the opposition should fight on this inside the Parliament on record
why you dont believe ? what is your analysis...Pls explain if possible?
@@arunaravind5967 JPC never worked in the past, so my suggestion is to fight on the floor 👍 Satyameva Jayathe 💯🙏
@@Tothepoint_4u don't you think 30 lakh cr deserves a JPC probe..mind you this is not a small amount.and SEBI has all the details of transaction which will come out only after a JPC Electoral bond was just 6ooo crore
@@arunaravind5967 I do believe bro but JPC never worked in the past.. okay for the argument sake I too demand JPC 👍, apart from that have to fight in the Parliament and PIL'S should be filed in the courts 💯💯🙏🙏👍👍 Satayema Jayathe..!!!
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EVM scam drama done so now new scam drama started! Give us a break!!
Go and read financial media articles from December 2023 when BJP got 3 state win n market shot up. Read all articles about Indian markets till election day n you will clearly know that on 26th may Bloomberg article it says that foreign investors to pull money out of Indian markets if BJP doesn’t get majority. Exit polls made everyone jump in the bull run like it happened in 2004! But results shocked everyone like 2004! In 2004, markets dropped by 20% after BJP loss!
Nothing unexpected from gujju trading company
What I think on basis of technical analysis is, Market has made a double top
And is now ready for a down move to 21800 & more down side move
Politicians fooling investors .
It's stock and share Market .. not fish market. In fish market you don't to read the offer document carefully. No disclaimer also. Buyer beware. No risk in fish market.😊😊😊
Mogli JI❌
Broker 👈
So what if stock market lost money. 3 days before they also made crores of money, nobody was complaining then.
Profit and loss happens in finances. All covered in t&c.
aaj ka chanakya gives 80 pc seats to BJP in exit polls of all elections, they are atleast consistent
Jefferies Sees 25% Drop in India Stocks If BJP Loses 2024 Polls - Bloomberg article from Oct 2023!
Everyone who knows market knew market will fall if BJP lost! It happened in 2004 as well!
But why was market so afraid of Congress coming to power? Think! Read economic news financial articles to understand why!if you only watch rightwing or leftwing Godi media then you will be stuck in their echo chambers!?
❤❤❤❤❤
Exit Poll was conducted in which country? Nigeria?😂
🎉🎉🎉
Any market is a legalised betting market. SEBI clearly warns investors to be prudent before investing. Any person investing hearing to slogans is a foolish person.
No Indian PM, FM or HM in entire Indian independence history has asked public to buy stocks before results. That should be a red flag!
Meanwhile Godi media 3.0 has started their deceiving tactics .. Reasi terror attacks 👻… ooooo
So no attention on real issues which may be stock market fraud or who knows what else !
👍
Hi pooja, myself an anti modi and anti BJP person, however I don't think you have completely understood the underlying market mechanism and finance. I am an MBA in finance and PhD dropout from IIM, so this could probably render some credence to what I am going to explain. I see from your linkedin profile that you are a bachelors and masters in psychology,journalism and communication which has no relevence to understanding markets(although psychology has some prominence). Two things to be considered here a) Exit polls b) Its impact on stock markets. While your analysis is right on exit polls, its sample design,size and relevance, let me try to explain why you are wrong on its impact on the so called ‘market scam’. The short term market movements are always driven by sentiments (ofcourse its psychology ) based on news coming out in the public (positive or negative). One of the biggest threats to a general indiviual investor is when an insider leaks information about the impending event to a potentially powerful investor ( FII, influential trader, DII etc) so that it enables these powerful investors to take a position (typically short sell) in the market and then run away with the profits at the cost of individual investors. For example a firm may be about to announce a quarterly result (exceeding street expectations) or investing in new projects, and insider has already leaked this information to a player(thus giving advantage to that player). Now, let us consider the exit polls. Mind you, exit polls are not the actual event,but the actual poll result ! While the exit polls might have influenced the market to take the highs, the actual event result (polls) are hidden with no information known to anyone. This is because the opening the ballot, counting and announcement happens on the same day. Hence it is impossible to take an advance position in the markets. The poll madate had become clear only by around 3pm, the market closing time. Assume that the BJP had got clear majority with the actual result exceeding even the exit poll survey. Wouldnt the bulls have stayed further invested instead of exiting? Hence the fall of markets soon after poll results only indicate sentiments and not any scam. If exit poll had other intentions to influence markets, the market makers should have had information on the polls too. Hope I am clear here. Rahul gandhi should have taken some advice from knowledgeable people (like Mahua Moitra) before going on a press conference to request a JPC enquiry into so called ‘scam’. My final comments, while exit poll might be a scam , its influence on markets is not and the number given to whip up populist sentiment is the money taken out by FII‘s and has nothing to do with exit poll per se. Finally, I agree that the PM or HM shouldn't give any advice on the markets.
What is spoken here is of insider trading and influencing people to buy shares that lost money. The inside traders are clearly linked with the government as BJP knew in advance that they will not get a majority and inspite of that for first time in the entire independent history of India a PM, FM or HM asked the public to buy stocks. Please do not give a silly argument that coincidentally all three PM, HM and FM were stupid enough to go out of their remit and advise the public when they should clearly know that only SEBI Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) can give advice. This is all very suspicious. This looted money will be used to split parties and perform Operation Lotus to undermine democracy.
You have done a lot of research about the journalist in the video. But have you done a research about the PMs duty after holding a PM office.
What PM and HM said was misconduct and it's unconstitutional behaviour.
( note :- while making a statement they hold a Constitutional Position)
Jpc is demanded since court case can't be filed against PM.
@@Nole369 read my last line !
@@Nole369 Not only unconstitutional but illegal as well, they are giving financial advices without a proper license!
I’m sorry but your analysis is broken right from the start… insider trading refers to a specific advice on a specific company that’s accessible to only those in the know aka insiders. By suggesting that knowing the difference between what the exit polls had concluded and what the actual numbers turned out to be and shorting stocks on that basis which is what I’m presuming was indicated by RG’s economic team cause clearly he couldn’t have come up with this himself would in no way be classified as insider trading, just regular market fluctuations… as for money being wiped out of the system… a large part of that value was unrealised, so as I see it, I sincerely doubt anybody lost big especially since the markets bounced back and have grown even further.
Most of the people who did trading based on the 2 gujjus interviews must be andh bhakts of the 2. So its ok.
You should understand how the market works… before creating such episode. Today the Market is all time high..
They surged because of the RBI payment of 2 Lakh Crores to the Govt. That amount was more than 1.5 times last year I think. It would help the government's fiscal position and provide more funds for investment. Modi and Shah should have touched upon stocks. But your take is uninformed and hides half the information. Kind of expected.
You are incorrect. What is being talked about is the artificial spike on June 3rd. The RBI announcement was made on May 22 and the stock markets did rise on May 23 and then dropped on May 30th. But on June 3rd the spike was suddenly the highest. Check your facts please.
Exit poll results are as per Modi's direction, and paved the way for the thirty lakh crore scam. Modi will not agree for JPC.
Chamchas😅one simple question,if Modi is responsible for stock market downfall on June 4th, who is responsible for stock market back to growth trajectory on June 5th and 6th to pre-June3rd levels??
Don't you think this visible bridges or buildings or roads or offices that are being build if we can't say it development you can call it anything don't you think we needed this kind of infrastructure in the first 2-4th decade after independence or if not then maybe first 5-6th decade. Trust I hate BJP more than anyone but Congress and its allies except AAP no way they should just resign everyone of them end the party congress samajvadi TMC I can't bear the sight of these parties they only have one politics to divide Muslim into Muslims and Hindu into Hindu internally Casteism is the last thing India needs besides I can walk in my country knowing I can't speak anything about the gov ( BJP) but I still be walking care-freely without worrying about any terror attacks Congress and its allies are the worst India can have I can live in a dictatorship but safely you guys are media houses I get it it's your only bread and butter to criticize the gov yo make a name for yourself in this competitive main stream media environment you are Making the oppositions hero and BJP dictators on every topic I get it it's your job but come on whom are you voting for I mean a party with Casteism reservation of 80%? You're telling me the government couldn't uplift people after 1947 happened ? You are voting for the monuments of corruption it's your bread and butter but you are also wrong here and there will be a day when you will also be criticized you're being liberal but is terror attacks normal hell I don't care about dictatorship now but I can't and frankly nobody can live in terror attacks where congress and its allies lacks
only Fools engage in stock Market
Pappus Pet Dog(female) is barking nonsense again 😂😂😂
Does every women remind you of your mother?
Reliance bankrupt
those who invest in secondary markets like FIIs, hedge funds and individual traders are 2X and 3X times more intelligent then this journalist. i can point out 10 flaws in her analysis but liberal media in itself is an embarrassement to intellectualism in some ways so acceptable. people don't buy or sell on advices of politicians but ideological tilts is what compel investors. investors like capitalism and stability so investors like modi, investors hate socialism so they pulls out during early trends. it's not a scam because it's rallying again. those who have money became extra sensitive during elections and this behaviour can be observed globally.
Can you please go ahead and post your "i can point out 10 flaws in her analysis"
Big scam
And yet they are in office